CVD Deaths Research Articles

Abstract 4137928: Race-Dependent Association of Inflammation and Cholesterol with Cardiovascular Mortality in US Population

Background: Inflammation and cholesterol jointly contribute to cardiovascular disease and mortality. The relative contributions of inflammation and cholesterol to the risk of future cardiovascular events might shift according to pre-existing traits of each individual. Whether the association of inflammation and cholesterol with cardiovascular mortality differ by race remains unclear. Method: We sampled 12,726 participants from NHAENS III who were categorized as non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black or Mexican Americans. In all race groups, we used the Cox proportional hazard regression model to relate log-transformed CRP and LDL-C levels to CVD deaths. All models simultaneously included CRP and LDL-C, and were adjusted for age, current smoking, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, body mass index, lipid-lowering medications, total cholesterol and family income. Results: 12,726 participants (53.4% female, mean age 46.8 ± 19.7 years) including 5648 non-Hispanic White (44.4%), 3484 non-Hispanic Black (27.4%) and 3594 Mexican-American (28.2%) were followed up for a median 26.3 years , and 1905 cardiovascular deaths were documented. After adjusting for cardiometabolic risk factors, per 1 SD increase in log-transformed CRP was associated with 14% (HR 1.14 [95% CI, 1.08-1.21], P < 0.001) and 13% (HR 1.13 [95% CI, 1.04-1.23], P = 0.001) higher risk of CVD mortality in non-Hispanic White and non-Hispanic Black respectively, while the association was neutral in Mexican American. Notably, per 1 SD increase in LDL-C was not associated with CVD mortality in all race groups (P > 0.05 for all). Conclusion: After a follow up of median 26.3 years, we found that, in non-Hispanic White and Black individuals, but not in Mexican American, inflammatory was a stronger predictor of cardiovascular mortality, compared to cholesterol.

A Comparative Examination of Machine Learning Algorithms for Predicting Cardiovascular Disease

Over the previous few years, India’s heart disease incidence has varied between 1.2% and 13.2% in urban areas and 1.6% and 7.4% in rural areas. India would probably have more CVD deaths in 2020 which is 4.77 million compared to 2.26 million in 1990. Worldwide, 200 million individuals are estimated to be affected by heart disease. Heart disease affects over 110 million men and 80 million women globally. This study explores the use of machine learning (ML) with various models and data to predict cardiovascular illness with the goal of improving accuracy. Clinician parameters, lifestyle indicators, and demographic data are used to train and assess an assortment of machine learning methods, including Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machines, Random Forests, Decision Trees, and Naive Bayes.

Statin use before acute coronary syndrome and coronary risk factors, clinical presentation, interventions, and outcomes: ACC-NCDR-CathPCI Registry in India

Abstract Background Statins are used for coronary artery disease (CAD) primary and secondary prevention. Limited studies on the association of statin use before acute coronary syndrome (ACS) with clinical presentation and outcomes are available. Purpose We compared statin-user and statin-naïve ACS patients for clinical and angiographic findings and in-hospital and 3-year outcomes following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Methods Successive patients with ACS who underwent PCI from Sep’17 to Dec’23 were enrolled in the ACC-NCDR-CathPCI registry in India. Details of risk factors, clinical presentation, coronary angiography, interventions and in-hospital were recorded. Follow-up data in a sub-cohort recruited from Apr’19 to Mar’22 were obtained for incident major cardiovascular events (MCE) (cardiovascular deaths, recurrent ACS, PCI and bypass surgery). Results 8296 ACS patients were enrolled; prior statin use was in 3149 (38%) and statin naïve were 5147 (62%). Statin-user vs statin-naïve patients were older (61.6+10 vs 59.7+11y), with more hypertension (60.1 vs 48.6%), diabetes (35.8 vs 31.8%), pre-existing CAD (PCI 20.9 vs 9.1%; CABG 5.0 vs 2.3%) and lower mean total, LDL, and NHDL cholesterol (p<0.001). Statin users had less ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) (28.4% vs 45.2%), more non-STEMI (65.2 vs 50.8%), better LVEF (46.3+10 vs 44.5+10%), >2 coronary stents (35.5 vs 29.5%), lower mechanical circulatory support (2.2 vs 3.9%) and lower median hospitalization (66.1 vs 68.5h) (p<0.001). In statin-users incidence of in-hospital CAD deaths was 29 (0.92%) vs 78 (1.52%) (odds ratio, OR 0.61, 95% confidence intervals 0.39-0.93) and all-cause deaths 33 (1.05) vs 91(1.77%) (OR 0.59, 95%CI 0.39-0.88) (p<0.01). ORs attenuated following multivariate adjustments for risk factors, clinical presentation and interventions. In the follow up cohort (n=3813, high-intensity statins 99.6%), among baseline statin-users incident MCE was 98 (6.9%) vs 214 (8.9%) (hazard ratio, HR 0.76, 95%CI 0.59-0.97) and CVD deaths were in 46 (3.2%) vs 113 (4.7%) (HR 0.68, 95%CI 0.48-0.96) with attenuation following adjustment for baseline clinical variables and interventions. Conclusions Acute coronary syndrome patients taking pre-admission statins have significantly lower in-hospital and long-term cardiovascular and all-cause mortality following PCI.

Cardiovascular emergency in indonesian primary health care (PUSKESMAS): a national multicentre service evaluation study based on ESC guidelines adherence

Abstract Background Early diagnosis and prompt treatment are crucial in reducing cardiovascular (CVD) burden in the global level, especially in Indonesia with more than a half million CVD death annually. As frontliner, more than 10,000 primary healthcare (PUSKESMAS) spreading around Indonesia are pivotal in delivering CVD emergency care. However, due to the scarcity of healthcare resources, significant disparities exist between guideline recommendations and their implementation in Indonesian primary health care. Purpose Our study aims to describe current cardiovascular emergency care, assess guideline adherence, and identify key factors influencing the trend. Methods This multicentre study was conducted in 40 PUSKESMAS across Indonesia from October to December 2023. Data related to cardiovascular emergencies diagnosis, work-ups, treatment, and outcomes were gathered and then evaluated according to the ESC Guidelines. Recommendations, particularly Class I, were converted into points with respect to diagnostic and treatment domains. Guideline adherence scores were then calculated based on the percentage of accomplished points. Linear regression analysis was employed to identify factors that could explain variations in guideline adherence across all PUSKESMAS. Results 215 CVD emergency patients were reported. The most prevalent diagnosis was hypertensive crisis (n=137; 64%) with ECG done in only 26% of cases and none underwent imaging. Oral amlodipine (59%) and captopril (55%) were mostly used as antihypertensive, with none receiving intravenous. The second most common diagnosis was ACS (n=42; 20%), with ECG performed in only 71% of cases. Among 13 patients with STEMI, 69% only received aspirin, and 46% were given DAPT. Malignant arrhythmia occurred in 26 patients, with none receiving cardioversion. The most used anti-arrhythmic are bisoprolol, propranolol, and atropine. Among 23 cases of acute HF, only 39% received oxygen, while IV furosemide was used in only one case. Cardiac arrest occurred in two patients, both received CPR and epinephrine. In terms of guideline adherence, mean diagnostic score (%) was demonstrated highest in Cardiac Arrest at 100 and the lowest in Hypertensive Crisis and Acute HF at 53, while mean treatment score (%) was highest in Hypertensive Crisis at 86 and lowest in arrhythmia at 25. Linear regression suggests that human resources have a positive and significant association with diagnostic adherence scores (R2: 0.3485, p-value: 0.0450), whereas essential medicine has a strong but non-significant correlation with treatment adherence score (R2: 1.0768, p-value: 0.460). Conclusion This study has demonstrated a huge disparity between the current CVD emergency practices and guidelines in Indonesian primary healthcare. These gaps emphasised the need for improved human resources and essential medicine for primary healthcare along with the implementation of data-driven policy making concerning cardiovascular disease in Indonesia.Cardiovascular Emergency Diagnosis in InCardiovascular Emergency Work-up and Tre

Cardiovascular effectiveness of newer glucose-lowering agents, with and without baseline lipid-lowering therapy in type 2 diabetes: A systematic meta-analysis of cardiovascular outcome trials and real-world evidence

BackgroundWhether the cardiovascular treatment benefits of sodium–glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT-2is) and glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) differ by baseline use of statins/lipid lowering therapy is unclear. This systematic review and meta-analysis investigated whether baseline statin use (users vs non-users) influences the cardiovascular and kidney benefits of SGLT-2is and GLP-1RAs in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). MethodsWe identified relevant cardiovascular outcome trials (CVOTs) and observational cohort studies from MEDLINE, Embase, the Cochrane Library, and bibliographic searches up to March 2024. The analysis pooled study-specific hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for outcomes, categorized by baseline statin use status. We also assessed the interactions between these medications and baseline statin use by calculating and pooling the ratio of HRs (RHRs) within each trial. ResultsTwenty-five articles (13 articles comprising 6 unique CVOTs and 12 articles comprising 9 unique cohort studies) were eligible. In CVOTs of SGLT-2is, the HRs (95% CIs) of MACE; composite of CVD death or hospitalisation for heart failure; stroke; and kidney events in statin users were 0.90 (0.82-1.00), 0.78 (0.60-1.02), 1.00 (0.77-1.31), and 0.60 (0.53-0.69), respectively. The corresponding estimates were similar in non-statin users. In CVOTs of GLP-1RAs, the HRs (95% CIs) for MACE in statin and non-statin users were 0.81 (0.73-0.90) and 0.92 (0.77-1.11), respectively. In observational cohort studies, SGLT-2is similarly reduced the risk of several cardiovascular and kidney outcomes in both statin and non-statin users. The estimated RHRs and p-values for interaction indicated that baseline statin use status did not significantly modify the cardio-kidney benefits of SGLT-2is and GLP-1RAs. ConclusionsAggregate analyses of intervention and real-world evidence show that SGLT-2is and GLP-1RAs provide comparable cardio-kidney benefits in patients with T2D, regardless of baseline statin use status.PROSPERO Registration: CRD42024498939

Impact of psychological correlates, Social isolation and loneliness on the management and self care behaviors of Cardio-vascular Disease after COVID- 19 Pandemic

The present research paper examines the impact of psychological correlates (stress, anxiety and depression), social isolation and loneliness in the management and self care behaviors of cardiovascular disease after Covid 19 pandemics. According to World Heart Federation 2023 report shows that more than half a billion people around the world continue to be affected by cardiovascular diseases, which accounted for 20.5 million deaths in 2021 – close to a third of all deaths globally and an overall increase on the estimated 121 million CVD deaths. Over three quarters of Cardiovascular disease deaths take place in low- and middle-income countries. Out of the 17 million premature deaths (under the age of 70) due to non-communicable diseases in 2019 (World Health Organization), 38% were caused by cardiovascular diseases. Most cardiovascular diseases can be prevented by addressing psychologically, socially, behavioral and environmental risk factors such as anxiety, anger, stress, depression, social isolation, loneliness, tobacco use, unhealthy diet and obesity, physical inactivity, harmful use of alcohol and air pollution. Anxiety is associated with a variety of physical and psychological symptoms that can negatively impact the health outcome. Anxiety can lead to increased blood pressure, heart rate, and cortisol levels, which can contribute to the development and progression of Cardio vascular disease. Psychological interventions can help individuals with Cardio vascular disease better cope with the disease, improve their quality of life, and reduce the risk of adverse health outcomes. It is important to detect cardiovascular disease as early as possible for the management and prevention of it. Research involves 300 participants with cardiovascular disease during 2021 to 2024. The data was collected by the participant of Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh visited to the private clinics and hospital for their routine checkups. Using standardized questionnaire following information was gathered i.e. Demographic, biomedical information, anxiety, depression, stress, as well as feelings of social isolation and loneliness, self health care inventory for cardio vascular disease and their lifestyle related information for preventing from the diseases. The data was analyzed using descriptive statistics, and one way ANOVA. The results revealed a significant relationship with psychological correlates, social isolation and loneliness in the management and care of cardiovascular diseases participants after Covid 19 pandemic. The results of the study are fruitful for Health Care Professionals and Health Care Providers for the management of cardiovascular diseases; also it’s useful for Ministry of Health to make a policy related to the control the death rate which is caused due to cardiovascular diseases. Hence it is important to "Identifying sustainable ways to work with communities to take action to prevent and control modifiable risk factors for heart disease is essential for reducing the global burden of heart disease," said George A. Mensah, MD, FACC, director of the Center for Translation Research and Implementation Science at the NHLBI.

Associations between body mass index and all-cause and CVD mortality in agriculture, forestry, and fishing occupations: A prospective cohort study using NHANES data (1999-2014).

Obesity, as indicated by elevated Body Mass Index (BMI), is a well-established global health concern associated with increased morbidity and mortality across diverse populations. However, the influence of BMI on individuals in Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing (AFF) occupations, characterized by unique challenges and environmental factors, has received limited research attention. Our study, a prospective cohort analysis, utilized National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data from 1999-2014, targeting adults above 18 in AFF occupations with comprehensive BMI data, omitting individuals with a history of cancer. Mortality outcomes were extracted from the NHANES mortality file, and BMI was segmented into eight categories. Essential covariates such as age, sex, race, and various health factors were incorporated. The statistical analysis encompassed Cox regression, generalized additive models, smooth curve fitting, and stratified analyses. During 1,005 person-years with 201 all-cause and 57 CVD deaths, we observed L-shaped and U-shaped correlations of BMI with all-cause and CVD mortality, featuring a pivotal inflection at 26.69 and 27.40 kg/m2. Above this BMI threshold of 26.69 and 27.4 kg/m2, all-cause mortality association was not significant while CVD mortality was positive. This study highlights a unique BMI-mortality association in AFF occupations, diverging from standard patterns. The rigorous labor and environmental conditions in AFF jobs suggest that a certain range of higher BMI could reduce mortality risk. This highlights the necessity for tailored health guidelines in different occupations. Future research should concentrate on diverse health indicators and enhanced risk assessment for physically strenuous occupations.

Polygenic risk score adds to a clinical risk score in the prediction of cardiovascular disease in a clinical setting.

A cardiovascular disease polygenic risk score (CVD-PRS) can stratify individuals into different categories of cardiovascular risk, but whether the addition of a CVD-PRS to clinical risk scores improves the identification of individuals at increased risk in a real-world clinical setting is unknown. The Genetics and the Vascular Health Check Study (GENVASC) was embedded within the UK National Health Service Health Check (NHSHC) programme which invites individuals between 40-74 years of age without known CVD to attend an assessment in a UK general practice where CVD risk factors are measured and a CVD risk score (QRISK2) is calculated. Between 2012-2020, 44,141 individuals (55.7% females, 15.8% non-white) who attended an NHSHC in 147 participating practices across two counties in England were recruited and followed. When 195 individuals (cases) had suffered a major CVD event (CVD death, myocardial infarction or acute coronary syndrome, coronary revascularisation, stroke), 396 propensity-matched controls with a similar risk profile were identified, and a nested case-control genetic study undertaken to see if the addition of a CVD-PRS to QRISK2 in the form of an integrated risk tool (IRT) combined with QRISK2 would have identified more individuals at the time of their NHSHC as at high risk (QRISK2 10-year CVD risk of ≥10%), compared with QRISK2 alone. The distribution of the standardised CVD-PRS was significantly different in cases compared with controls (cases mean score .32; controls, -.18, P = 8.28×10-9). QRISK2 identified 61.5% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 54.3%-68.4%) of individuals who subsequently developed a major CVD event as being at high risk at their NHSHC, while the combination of QRISK2 and IRT identified 68.7% (95% CI: 61.7%-75.2%), a relative increase of 11.7% (P = 1×10-4). The odds ratio (OR) of being up-classified was 2.41 (95% CI: 1.03-5.64, P = .031) for cases compared with controls. In individuals aged 40-54 years, QRISK2 identified 26.0% (95% CI: 16.5%-37.6%) of those who developed a major CVD event, while the combination of QRISK2 and IRT identified 38.4% (95% CI: 27.2%-50.5%), indicating a stronger relative increase of 47.7% in the younger age group (P = .001). The combination of QRISK2 and IRT increased the proportion of additional cases identified similarly in women as in men, and in non-white ethnicities compared with white ethnicity. The findings were similar when the CVD-PRS was added to the atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease pooled cohort equations (ASCVD-PCE) or SCORE2 clinical scores. In a clinical setting, the addition of genetic information to clinical risk assessment significantly improved the identification of individuals who went on to have a major CVD event as being at high risk, especially among younger individuals. The findings provide important real-world evidence of the potential value of implementing a CVD-PRS into health systems.

Low birthweight in patients with type 2 diabetes is associated with elevated risk of cardiovascular events and mortality

Aims/hypothesisLow birthweight is a risk factor for type 2 diabetes and CVD. This prospective cohort study investigated whether lower birthweight increases CVD risk after diagnosis of type 2 diabetes.MethodsOriginal midwife records were evaluated for 8417 participants recently diagnosed with type 2 diabetes in the Danish Centre for Strategic Research in Type 2 Diabetes (DD2) cohort. Patients were followed for the first occurrence of a composite CVD endpoint (myocardial infarction, coronary revascularisation, peripheral arterial disease, stroke, unstable angina, heart failure or CVD death), a three-component endpoint comprising major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), and all-cause mortality. Ten-year risks were estimated using the Aalen–Johansen estimator considering non-CVD death as a competing risk. HRs were determined by Cox regression. Models were controlled for sex, age, calendar year at birth, family history of diabetes and born-at-term status.ResultsA total of 1187 composite CVD endpoints, 931 MACE, and 1094 deaths occurred during a median follow-up period of 8.5 years. The 10-year standardised composite CVD risk was 19.8% in participants with a birthweight <3000 g compared with 16.9% in participants with a birthweight of 3000–3700 g, yielding a risk difference (RD) of 2.9% (95% CI 0.4, 5.4) and an adjusted HR of 1.20 (95% CI 1.03, 1.40). The 10-year MACE risk for birthweight <3000 g was similarly elevated (RD 2.4%; 95% CI 0.1, 4.7; HR 1.22; 95% CI 1.01, 1.46). The elevated CVD risk was primarily driven by stroke, peripheral arterial disease and CVD death. All-cause mortality showed no substantial difference.Conclusions/interpretationHaving a birthweight <3000 g is associated with higher CVD risk among patients with type 2 diabetes, driven primarily by risk of stroke and CVD death.Graphical

Epidemiology and demographic patterns of cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms deaths in Western Europe: a 1990–2019 analysis

ObjectivesCardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and neoplasms have been considered as public health concerns worldwide. This study aimed to estimate the epidemiological patterns of death burden on CVDs and neoplasms and its attributable risk factors in Western Europe from 1990 to 2019 to discuss the potential causes of the disparities. Study design and methodsWe collected data on CVDs and neoplasms deaths in 24 Western European countries from the Global Burden of Disease Study. We analyzed patterns by age, sex, country, and associated risk factors. The results include percentages of total deaths, age-standardized death rates per 100,000 population, and uncertainty intervals (UIs). Time trends were assessed using annual percent change. ResultsIn 2019, CVDs and neoplasms accounted for 33.54% and 30.15% of Western Europe's total deaths, with age-standardized death rates of 128.05 (95% UI: 135.37, 113.02) and 137.51 (95% UI: 142.54, 128.01) per 100,000. Over 1990–2019, CVDs rates decreased by 54.97%, and neoplasms rates decreased by 19.54%. Top CVDs subtypes were ischemic heart disease and stroke; top cancers for neoplasms were lung and colorectal. Highest CVD death burdens were in Finland, Greece, Austria; neoplasm burdens in Monaco, San Marino, Andorra. The major risk factors were metabolic (CVDs) and behavioral (neoplasms). Gender differences revealed higher CVDs death burden in males, while neoplasms burden varied by risk factors and age groups. ConclusionIn 2019, CVDs and neoplasms posed significant health risks in Western Europe, with variations in death burdens and risk factors across genders, age groups, and countries. Future interventions should target vulnerable groups to lessen the impact of CVDs and neoplasms in the region.

Association of food insecurity with overall and disease-specific mortality among cancer survivors in the US.

To investigate the association of food insecurity with overall and disease-specific mortality among US cancer survivors. Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 1999-2018) were used to examine the impact of food insecurity on mortality risks among cancer survivors in the US. Study participants aged ≥ 20years who had a history of cancer and completed the Adult Food Security Survey Module were included. Mortality data [all-cause, cancer, and cardiovascular (CVD) specific] through December 31, 2019 were obtained through linkage to the National Death Index. Using multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression, hazard ratios of mortality based on food security status were estimated. Among 5032 cancer survivors (mean age 62.5years; 58.0% women; 86.2% non-Hispanic White), 596 (8.8%) reported food insecurity. Overall, 1913 deaths occurred (609 cancer deaths and 420 CVD deaths) during the median follow-up of 6.8years. After adjusting for age, food insecurity was associated with a higher risk of overall (HR = 1.93; 95% CI = 1.56-2.39), CVD-specific (HR = 1.95; 95% CI = 1.24-3.05), and cancer-specific (HR = 1.70; 95% CI = 1.20-2.42) mortality (P < 0.001). However, after adjusting for socioeconomic characteristics and health-related factors (physical activity, diet quality measured by healthy eating index), the association between food insecurity and overall mortality was no longer statistically significant. Food insecurity was associated with a greater risk of overall mortality among cancer survivors. Further studies are needed to confirm these findings and evaluate whether the observed association represents a causal phenomenon and, if so, whether the effect is modifiable with food assistance programs.

Optimizing cardiovascular disease mortality prediction: a super learner approach in the tehran lipid and glucose study

Background & aimCardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most important cause of death in the world and has a potential impact on health care costs, this study aimed to evaluate the performance of machine learning survival models and determine the optimum model for predicting CVD-related mortality.MethodIn this study, the research population was all participants in Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS) aged over 30 years. We used the Gradient Boosting model (GBM), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Super Learner (SL), and Cox proportional hazard (Cox-PH) models to predict the CVD-related mortality using 26 features. The dataset was randomly divided into training (80%) and testing (20%). To evaluate the performance of the methods, we used the Brier Score (BS), Prediction Error (PE), Concordance Index (C-index), and time-dependent Area Under the Curve (TD-AUC) criteria. Four different clinical models were also performed to improve the performance of the methods.ResultsOut of 9258 participants with a mean age of (SD; range) 43.74 (15.51; 20–91), 56.60% were female. The CVD death proportion was 2.5% (228 participants). The death proportion was significantly higher in men (67.98% M, 32.02% F). Based on predefined selection criteria, the SL method has the best performance in predicting CVD-related mortality (TD-AUC > 93.50%). Among the machine learning (ML) methods, The SVM has the worst performance (TD-AUC = 90.13%). According to the relative effect, age, fasting blood sugar, systolic blood pressure, smoking, taking aspirin, diastolic blood pressure, Type 2 diabetes mellitus, hip circumference, body mss index (BMI), and triglyceride were identified as the most influential variables in predicting CVD-related mortality.ConclusionAccording to the results of our study, compared to the Cox-PH model, Machine Learning models showed promising and sometimes better performance in predicting CVD-related mortality. This finding is based on the analysis of a large and diverse urban population from Tehran, Iran.

The burden of Cardiovascular diseases in Jordan: a longitudinal analysis from the global burden of disease study, 1990–2019

BackgroundCardiovascular Disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality worldwide. While countries in the Arab world continue to lack public health data and be severely understudied in health research, previous research has shown that compared to 1990, CVDs had a higher burden of disease in the Arab World in 2010. Jordan, a middle-income Arab country, is profiled with unique attributes such as a dual-sector healthcare system, political stability, and its role as a haven for refugees and migrants. These distinctive factors emphasize Jordan’s suitability as a case study. This investigation aims to quantify CVD burden in Jordan and identify risk factors, contributing to a broader understanding of health challenges in the Arab region and beyond.MethodsThe Global Burden of Disease (GBD) dataset was used to estimate prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) as age-standardized rates from 1990 to 2019. We calculated percentage change for nine specific CVDs and reported trends by gender and age groups. Additionally, data on twelve a priori selected behavioral, clinical, and environmental risk factors attributing to overall age-standardized CVDs DALY were reported per 100,00 population.ResultsIn 2019, the age-standardized CVD prevalence, death, and DALYs rates in Jordan were 7980 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 7629, 8360), 248 (95% UI 211, 288), and 4647 (95% UI 4028, 5388), respectively. Despite an increase in the absolute number of mortality and prevalence, between 1990 and 2019, the age-standardized prevalence, death, and DALYs rates all decreased by 5.5%, 45.1%, and 46.7%, respectively. In 2019, the leading risk factors contributing to overall age-standardized CVDs DALY per 100,000 population were high systolic blood pressure, high BMI, dietary risks, and high LDL cholesterol.ConclusionDespite decreasing burden rate of CVDs in Jordan between 1990 and 2019, CVDs remain the leading cause of mortality in Jordan, with an increase in the total number of prevalence and mortality. Overall, this contributes to increased healthcare costs. Further research is required to quantify the burden of CVDs and understand it better. Intervention measures and policies tailored to specific CVDs should be designed to reduce the burden of CVDs in Jordan.

Mortality Time-Trends of Different Cardiovascular Diseases in a Practically Extinct Cohort of Italian Middle-Aged Men Followed-Up for 61 Years: A Possible Etiological Explanation?

To study a male Italian cohort (initially aged 40-59, n = 1712) during 61 years and the natural history of major CVD mortality categories including coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke and other heart diseases of uncertain etiology (HDUE), including congestive heart failure) along with their risk factor relationships. Cox models were run with 12 covariates as possible predictors measured at entry to the study. About 93% of all CVD deaths were covered by the three major groups selected here (N = 751): 37.4% of them were diagnosed as CHD, 30.6% as stroke and 28.5% as HDUE. CHD declined in the last 20 years of follow-up, while a sharp increase in HDUE mortality was seen. Baseline mean levels of serum cholesterol were 209.6, 204.2 and 198.0 mg/dL, respectively, for CHD, stroke and HDUE deaths: the multivariable coefficients of serum cholesterol were positive and significant for CHD (p < 0.0001), and stroke (p = 0.0203) and not significant for HDUE (p = 0.3467). In Fine-Gray models, the algebraic signs of cholesterol coefficients were opposite for CHD versus the other mortality categories (t = 3.13). The predictive performances of remaining risk factors were varied whereas that of Cox models was not very good, probably due to the attrition phenomenon and possible competing risks. Large differences in natural history and risk factors were found comparing the three CVD conditions, potentially indicating different etiologies and pointing to the need of not mixing them up in a grouped CVD category.

Relationship of microvascular complications and healthy lifestyle with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in women compared with men with type 2 diabetes

Sex differences exist in the prevalence of microvascular disease (MVD) and healthy-lifestyle adherence. Whether MVD and healthy lifestyles are associated with mortality risk similarly for women and men who have type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) remains unknown. The present study included 9992 women and 15,860 men with T2DM from the UK Biobank. MVDs included retinopathy, peripheral neuropathy, and chronic kidney disease. Healthy lifestyle factors consisted of ideal BMI, nonsmoking, healthy diet, regular exercise, and appropriate sleep duration. Sex-specific hazard ratios (HRs) of mortality associated with the MVDs or healthy lifestyles were calculated and women-to-men ratio of HRs (RHR) were further estimated, after multivariable adjustment for potential confounders. During a median of 12.7 years of follow-up, 4346 (1202 in women) all-cause and 1207 (254 in women) CVD deaths were recorded. The adjusted HRs (95% CI) of all-cause mortality for 1 additional increment of the MVDs were 1.71 (1.55, 1.88) for women and 1.48 (1.39, 1.57) for men, with an RHR of 1.16 (1.03, 1.30). The corresponding RHR was 1.36 (1.09, 1.69) for cardiovascular mortality. Adhering to a healthy lifestyle (≥4 vs. ≤1 lifestyle factor) was associated with an approximately 60%-70% lower risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality without sex differences (P-interaction >0.70). Furthermore, as compared with having no MVD and an unfavorable lifestyle, having ≥2 MVDs but a favorable lifestyle was not associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality either in women (HR=0.88; 95% CI: 0.49, 1.60) or in men (HR=0.95; 95% CI: 0.64, 1.40), similarly when considering cardiovascular mortality. In T2DM, while MVDs are more strongly associated with mortality risk in women than in men, adhering to a favorable lifestyle is associated with a substantially lower risk of mortality and may eliminate the detrimental impact of MVDs in both sexes.

Lifetime and 10-year risks of cardiovascular mortality in relation to risk factors in middle and old age: 50-year follow-up of the Whitehall study of London Civil Servants

BackgroundCardiovascular disease (CVD)-related mortality has declined substantially in the United Kingdom (UK) in recent decades, but the continued relevance of conventional risk factors for prediction of CVD mortality throughout the life-course is uncertain. We compared the 10-year risks and lifetime risks of CVD mortality associated with conventional risk factors recorded in middle and old age. MethodsThe Whitehall study was a prospective study of 19,019 male London civil servants (mean age 52 years) when enrolled in 1967–1970 and followed-up for 50 years for cause-specific mortality. In 1997, 7044 (83%) survivors (mean age 77 years) were re-surveyed. The 10-year and lifetime risks of CVD mortality were estimated by levels of CVD risk factors recorded in middle-age and old-age, respectively. ResultsBy July 2020, 97% had died (22%, 51% and 80% before age 70, 80 and 90 years, respectively) and 7944 of 17,673 deaths (45%) were from CVD. The 10-year and lifetime risks of CVD death increased linearly with higher levels of CVD risk factors recorded in middle-age and in old-age. Individuals in the top versus bottom 5% of CVD risk scores in middle age had a 10.3% (95% CI:7.2–13.4) vs 0.6% (0.1–1.2) 10-year risk of CVD mortality, a 61.4% (59.4–65.3) vs 31.3% (24.1–34.5) lifetime risk of CVD mortality and a 12-year difference in life expectancy from age 50 years. The corresponding differences using a CVD risk score in old-age were 11.0% (4.4–17.5) vs 0.8% (0.0–2.2) for 10-year risk and 42.1% (28.2–50.0) vs 30.3% (6.0–38.0) for lifetime risk of CVD mortality and a 6-year difference in life expectancy from age 70 years. ConclusionsConventional risk factors remained highly predictive of CVD mortality and life expectancy through the life-course. The findings highlight the relevance of estimation of both lifetime risks of CVD and 10-year risks of CVD for primary prevention of CVD.

Abstract MP05: Proportion of All-Cause and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality Attributable to Social, Behavioral, and Metabolic Risk Factors in US Adults

Introduction: Recent studies have shown that social determinants of health (SDoH) are related to all-cause and cardiovascular (CVD) mortality. However, the attribution of SDoH to all-cause and CVD mortality beyond behavioral and metabolic risk factors has not been quantified in the US general population. Methods: National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2005-2018 included a nationally representative sample of 25,165 individuals aged 20-74. Data on social, behavioral, and metabolic risk factors were collected using standard methods. Deaths were ascertained from linkage to the National Death Index with follow-up through 2019. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models using backwards elimination were used to select risk factors associated with all-cause and CVD mortality. Average population attributable fractions (PAF) for risk factors significantly associated with mortality were calculated. Results: Over an average of 7.6 years of follow-up, 765 CVD deaths and 2,540 all-cause deaths were confirmed. Hazard ratios and PAFs from multivariable-adjusted regression models are presented in the table. Overall, social, behavioral, and metabolic risk factors accounted for 71.1% (95% CI: 63.0, 79.3) of all-cause deaths and 70.6% (62.4, 78.7) of CVD deaths in the US population. The top five leading risk factors for all-cause mortality are hypertension (15.7%), physical inactivity (11.9%), lower family income (11.6%), not married or living with a partner (9.7%), and diabetes (7.0%); and for CVD mortality are hypertension (15.5%), lower family income (13.0%), physical inactivity (12.6%), not married or living with a partner (10.5%), and diabetes (7.1%). Conclusion: These data indicate that social, behavioral, and metabolic factors account for most all-cause and CVD deaths in the US. Furthermore, in addition to interventions targeting hypertension, diabetes, and physical activity, novel public health policies focusing on SDoH are warranted to reduce premature deaths in the US.

Abstract 52: Associations of Ideal Cardiovascular Health and Its Change With Cardiovascular-Kidney Outcomes in Young Adults

Introduction: The AHA recently highlighted the linkage of cardiovascular (CVD) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) and the importance of promoting cardiovascular health (CVH) to prevent them. We hypothesized that attaining ideal CVH score or improving it in young adulthood is associated with low risk of cardiovascular-kidney events, but data are scarce. Methods: We studied 3,836,283 participants of the Korean national health screening in 2009-2010 (baseline age 20-39 y) without prior CVD or CKD. Participants were categorized by the number of ideal CVH components met (range 0-6; diet data unavailable). A subgroup of 2,768,705 participants who underwent follow-up health exam in 2011-2014 (median 4.2 y from baseline) were stratified by combination of baseline and follow-up CVH scores. The primary outcome was a composite of CVD events, incident CKD, and death from kidney disease or CVD, until 31 Dec 2021 (Fig, footnote). Results: At baseline, participants had median age 31 y, and 38.2% were female. During a median follow-up of 12.1 y, 172,217 cardiovascular-kidney events occurred. The multivariable-adjusted risk of cardiovascular-kidney event decreased gradually (HR 0.81 per 1 p higher CVH score) with higher CVH scores (Fig, A). A CVH score of 6 was associated with a 65% lower risk of cardiovascular-kidney event than a CVH score of 0. An increase in CVH score from the baseline to follow-up exam was associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular-kidney event (HR 0.87 per +1 p CVH score change). The risk was lowest in participants with high CVH at both baseline and follow-up; having high CVH at baseline, and improving from low to high CVH, were also associated with lower risk than those who maintained low CVH (Fig, B). Findings were similar for CKD and other individual endpoints. Conclusions: Achieving, maintaining, or improving ideal CVH during young adulthood was associated with lower risk of cardiovascular-kidney events, highlighting the importance of promoting early-life CVH for combined prevention of cardiovascular and kidney disease.

Trends in all-cause and cause-specific mortality in older adults with and without diabetes: A territory-wide analysis in one million older adults in Hong Kong

AimsDirect comparisons of population-level trends in all-cause and cause-specific mortalities among older adults with and without diabetes are lacking. MethodsWe performed a territory-wide analysis of 1,142,000 unique older adults aged ≥ 65 years (31.7 % with diabetes) with at least one attendance in the Hong Kong Hospital Authority in 2014–2018. We used Joinpoint regression to describe trends of age- and sex-standardised all-cause and cause-specific mortalities (cardiovascular disease [CVD], cancer, and non-CVD and non-cancer) in older adults with and without diabetes. ResultsAll-cause mortality decreased in older adults with (average annual percent change [AAPC] = -1.6, 95 % confidence interval [-2.7, -0.4]) and without (AAPC = -3.1 [-4.2, -2.1]) diabetes. Largest declines were seen for CVD-cause mortalities for people with and without diabetes (AAPC = -5.5 [-6.8, -4.1] vs AAPC = -5.8 [-8.6, -2.9], respectively). Cancer-cause mortalities were similar in both groups with no change. Men with diabetes showed less favourable improvements. An increasing mortality trend was seen only in the 65-69 age-group regardless of diabetes status. ConclusionsMortality continued to decline in older adults with and without diabetes, mainly driven by a decline in CVD deaths, with no narrowing of the mortality gap. Our findings call for continued actions to address excess mortalities especially in older men with diabetes and younger older adults.

Association of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality among US adults with prehypertension: a prospective cohort study

BackgroundPrehypertension affects 25–50% of adults worldwide and no prior study has examined the relationship between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentrations and mortality risk in individuals with prehypertension. This study aims to investigate the association of serum 25(OH)D concentrations with all-cause and CVD mortality among prehypertensive adults by utilizing data from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2007–2014 and linked 2019 mortality file.MethodsWe included 4345 prehypertensive adults who participated in the NHANES between 2007 and 2014 and were followed up until 31 December 2019. Weighted Cox proportional hazards models were used with adjustments for multiple covariates to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for the risks of dying from any cause and CVD.ResultsDuring a median follow-up of 8.8 years, 335 deaths from any causes were documented, of which 88 participants died from CVD. Compared with participants with sufficient 25(OH)D (≥ 75 nmol/L), the multivariate-adjusted HRs and 95% CIs for participants with severe deficiency (< 25 nmol/L), moderate deficiency (25–49.9 nmol/L), and insufficient concentrations (50–74.9 nmol/L) of serum 25(OH)D for all-cause death were 2.83 (1.46–5.52), 1.17 (0.74–1.86), and 1.36 (0.93–1.98), respectively. Similarly, the multivariable-adjusted HRs and 95%CIs for CVD death were 4.14 (1.10–15.51), 1.23 (0.46–3.28), and 1.73 (0.96–3.14), respectively. We found that there was a 9% reduction in the risk of death from all causes and a 14% reduction in the risk of death from CVD for every 10 nmol/L increase in serum 25(OH)D concentrations.ConclusionSevere serum 25(OH)D deficiency among prehypertensive adults was associated with increased risk of mortality from all causes as well as from CVD. Our work suggests that supplementing with vitamin D may prevent premature death in severely deficient individuals with prehypertension.