Current Trajectory Research Articles

Balancing Economic Growth and Emission Reductions: Policy Trade-offs in India’s Power Sector Towards Achieving the 2070 Net-Zero Goal

India faces significant policy trade-offs between raising living standards for 1.4 billion people and reducing global GHG emissions. While the government has introduced policies to promote renewable energy and reduce coal dependency, numerous efforts are required to meet the 2070 net-zero target. Cutting emissions will likely slow short-term growth and affect coal-dependent communities. However, the right policies can minimize these costs. This paper reviews India’s current climate policies and models emission trajectories under various policy scenarios to explore ways to reduce GHG emissions effectively.

Wither and survive or die? An analysis of public enterprises in Namibia

The performance of Public Enterprises (PEs) in Namibia has been a long and contentious issue, clamored by continuous bailouts in the face of constant poor performance. The trend of financial bailouts to PEs in Namibia over the years has attracted increased attention into the dynamics of poor PE performance and their fiscal burden on the state. The Namibian government has taken active steps in cutting on PE bailouts and demanding improved performance or face closure. By looking at recent developments in the governance of PEs in Namibia, the purpose and objective of the current study is to analyze whether the current stance and trajectory of government decisions spells a post-honeymoon period in which poor performing PEs will ‘wither and survive or die’ if they do not improve their sustainability index by not relying on financial bailouts. This analysis is aided by the insights provided by the stakeholder, institutional and principal-agent theories. Through the qualitative research method, this study finds that the Namibian government has taken a new attitude and approach in which it will no longer blindly accept and tolerate the poor performance of PEs through continuous bailouts as seen in the past. PEs that are withering will now either survive (through reforms) or die (through liquidation or dissolution).

UNDER THE LOAN: AN ANALYSIS OF ARMENIAN BANKING SECTOR AND CREDIT TRENDS

This study examines recent trends in Armenia's banking sector and export patterns, revealing underlying economic vulnerabilities despite apparent growth. Using data from the Central Bank of Armenia and official trade statistics, this paper analyzes shifts in lending patterns across various economic sectors and changes in export composition. Our findings indicate a concerning decline in industrial sector lending, coupled with a significant increase in mortgage and consumer loans. Additionally, we observe a heavy reliance on precious metal re-exports for economic growth, raising questions about the sustainability of Armenia's current economic trajectory. This research contributes to the understanding of potential risks in Armenia's financial system and highlights the need for diversification in its export base.

Dietary trajectory profiles of French adults over time: Multicriteria analysis of sustainability

Abstract Despite the urgent need for sustainable dietary transitions, few studies have examined current dietary trajectories using longitudinal data. This study aimed to identify dietary consumption trajectory profiles over an 8-year period (2014-2022) while assessing their sustainability in a multicriteria approach. Consumption data from NutriNet-Santé cohort participants were collected using FFQs in 2014, 2018 and 2022. Dietary trajectory profiles were modeled using group-based multi-trajectory based on factors from Principal Component Analysis on energy-adjusted consumption data (n = 17,187). Profiles were analyzed for sustainability (environmental and nutritional dimensions) using multi-adjusted mixed-effects models. Six trajectory profiles (P) were identified. P0 (considered as reference) had average consumption for all food groups, with increased plant-based intake over time. In comparison, P1 had the highest baseline alcohol (+301%) and offal intake, increasing processed meat (+74%) and decreasing offal over time. P2 had higher milk (+187%) and sweet drinks intake, increasing animal substitutes (+1737%) and whole-grain products. P3 had higher nuts (+680%) and legumes intake, increasing egg (+166%) and reducing fruit juice. P4 had high fish (+39%) and fruit intake, increasing butter (+53%) and reducing alcohol. P5 had higher pork (+143%) and red meat intake, increasing fish (+31%) and reducing dairy. Initially, P3 and P4 had the lowest GHG emissions (-18%, -49% vs. P0), best nutritional profiles, and higher organic food consumption. P5 had the greatest environmental impact (+51%) and the lowest nutritional scores. Over time, P0 reduced GHG emissions and improved nutritional scores. P3 and P4 showed minimal changes, while P5 had the greatest GHG emissions decrease (-14%) and nutritional quality improvements. Identifying ongoing dietary transition trajectories, our findings contribute to optimizing targeted actions aimed at promoting sustainable dietary consumption habits. Key messages • Regardless of initial dietary preferences, French adults exhibit an overall trend over time towards increased intake of plant-based foods and decreased intake of red meats, at varying scales. • French adults exhibit varying degrees of transition towards more sustainable diets, with an overall decrease in GHG emissions from food consumption and an improvement in their nutritional profiles.

Dietary Pattern Trajectories in French Adults Over Time (2014-2022): Role of Socioeconomic Factors

Abstract While dietary transitions towards more plant-based diets are urgently needed, few studies have investigated current diet trajectories, based on observed longitudinal data. This study investigated current dietary transitions of French adults over an 8 years period (2014-2022), while assessing the nutritional quality of the consumed foods and the role of diverse socio-economic factors. Consumption data from 17,187 NutriNet-Santé cohort participants weighted for the French Census were collected using a food frequency questionnaire in 2014, 2018, 2022. Adopting a gender-specific approach, consumption changes in 23 food groups were assessed over time. The nutritional quality was evaluated using the cDQI score, categorizing foods into ‘healthy’ and ‘unhealthy’. The socioeconomic analysis targeted four food groups (red meat, processed meat, legumes and wholegrain products), strongly linked to mortality risk and recognized as significant markers of the sustainable diet transition. All analyses were conducted using multi-adjusted mixed-effects models. Consumption of some healthy plant-based foods (nuts +59 %, legumes +22%, wholegrain products +7%) significantly increased over time; while consumption of some unhealthy foods (red meat -19%, refined cereals -18%, sweet drinks -15%) decreased. Conversely, consumption of prepared and mixed dishes (+16%), processed meat (+35%) and butter (+100%) increased. These changes differed in magnitude between sexes and translated into an improved food quality score (cDQI). Occupational status was linked to longitudinal changes in food consumption, showing increased intake of plant-based foods among students and higher socio-professional categories. Our findings provide accurate data on trends and factors for targeted initiatives, guiding strategic interventions for a sustainable dietary transition. Key messages • Plant-based food consumption increased while unhealthy food intake, both plant and animal-based, decreased; Gender differences were observed in baseline consumption and the extent of changes over time. • Occupational status was linked to longitudinal changes in food consumption. Increased intake of plant-based foods was observed among students and higher socio-professional categories.

Anomalous wet summers and rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations increase the CO2 sink in a poorly drained forest on permafrost

At the northern high latitudes, rapid warming, associated changes in the hydrological cycle, and rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations, [CO2], are observed at present. Under rapid environmental changes, it is important to understand the current and future trajectories of the CO2 budget in high-latitude ecosystems. In this study, we present the importance of anomalous wet conditions and rising [CO2] on the long-term CO2 budget based on two decades (2003-2022) of quasicontinuous measurements of CO2 flux at a poorly drained black spruce forest on permafrost peat in interior Alaska. The long-term CO2 budget for the black spruce forest was a small sink of -53 ± 63 g C m-2 y-1. The CO2 sink increased from 49 g C m-2 y-1 for the first decade to 58 g C m-2 y-1 for the second decade. The increased CO2 sink was attributed to an 11.3% increase in gross primary productivity (GPP) among which 9% increase in GPP was explained by a recent increase in precipitation. Furthermore, a 3% increase in GPP in response to a 37-ppm increase in [CO2] was estimated from the data-model fusion. Our study shows that understanding the coupling between hydrological and carbon cycles and the CO2 fertilization effect is important for understanding the current and future carbon budgets of high-latitude ecosystems in permafrost regions.

Assessing urban development indicators for environmental sustainability

Rapid urbanization and inadequate environmental planning have significantly increased pressure on ecosystems, leading to unsustainable urban growth. Understanding the environmental impact of urbanization is crucial for sustainable development, especially in rapidly growing cities like Mashhad, Iran. Emergy Analysis, a method that quantifies the total energy used to support an ecosystem, was applied in this study to assess Mashhad’s environmental sustainability using emergy-based indicators. Key sustainability indicators, such as the Emergy Sustainability Index, Environmental Load Ratio, and Emergy Self-Support Ratio, were analyzed using data from 2011, 2016, and 2021. The results reveal that Mashhad's development is currently unsustainable, with heavy dependence on non-renewable resources and increasing environmental pressure. While the Emergy Sustainability Index showed modest improvement, key indicators like the Emergy Yield Ratio and Emergy Density declined, indicating reduced resource efficiency. Additionally, the Environmental Load Ratio increased, reflecting higher environmental stress. Without significant interventions, Mashhad’s current development trajectory will remain unsustainable. The study offers practical recommendations, such as reducing urban sprawl, promoting green spaces, and transitioning to renewable energy sources. Educating residents about resource efficiency and sustainable urban planning is critical. These findings provide actionable insights for other developing cities facing similar environmental challenges and serve as a blueprint for sustainable urban development in resource-constrained settings.

Dietary Pattern Trajectories in French Adults of the NutriNet-Santé Cohort Over Time (2014-2022): Role of Socioeconomic Factors.

While dietary transitions towards more plant-based diets are urgently needed, few studies have investigated current diet trajectories, based on observed longitudinal data. This study investigated current dietary transitions of French adults over an 8 years period (2014-2022), while assessing the diet quality and the role of diverse socio-economic factors.Consumption data from 17,187 NutriNet-Santé cohort participants weighted for the French Census were collected using a food frequency questionnaire in 2014, 2018, and 2022. Adopting a gender-specific approach, consumption changes in 23 food groups were assessed over time. The diet quality was evaluated using the Comprehensive Diet Quality Index (cDQI) score, categorizing foods into "healthy" and "unhealthy". The socioeconomic analysis targeted four food groups (red meat (including fresh beef, pork, offal, and lamb), processed meat (e.g. sausages, ham, and bacon), legumes, and wholegrain products), strongly linked to mortality risk and recognized as significant markers of the sustainable diet transition. All analyses were conducted using multi-adjusted mixed-effects models.Consumption of some healthy plant-based foods (nuts +59 %, legumes +22%, wholegrain products +7%) significantly increased over time; while consumption of some unhealthy foods (red meat -19%, refined cereals -18%, sweetened drinks -15%) decreased. Conversely, consumption of prepared and mixed dishes (+16%), and processed meat (+35%) increased. These changes differed in magnitude between genders and translated into an improved diet quality score (cDQI). Occupational status was linked to longitudinal changes in food consumption, showing increased consumption of plant-based foods among students and higher socio-professional categories.Our findings provide accurate data on trends and factors for targeted initiatives, guiding strategic interventions for a sustainable dietary transition.

Substitution: On the Animating Spirit of Economic Rationality

The term ‘substitution’, given minimal attention in thinking, became important in modern logic, but its treatment is highly technical. After a short review of its conceptual-historical background, the article discusses two important contemporary social and cultural theorists of substitution, Roberto Calasso and Michel Serres. It then turns to William Stanley Jevons, who first took up Boole’s logic, formulated the principle ‘substitution of similars’, the presumed heart of reasoning itself, constructed the first computer, and was a founder of neoclassical economics. The coincidence of these innovations in Jevons, through ‘substitution’, captures the way the modern world was set on its current trajectory, progressing towards a ‘substitution society’. The article concludes that as the key values of human life cannot be substituted, substitution as a general principle applied to human existence is absurd; economic theory, however, as shown in the ideas of Jevons, is founded on the exclusion of such genuine and meaningful concerns.

Transnational readings in the Trumpocene: Kim Stanley Robinson’s New York 2140 and Chris Beckett’s America City

This article discusses two climate fiction novels—one British, one American—that were written in the runup to two major political events on either side of the Atlantic in 2016—the Brexit referendum and the election of Donald Trump to the US presidency—and considers how their focus on a future climate emergency serves as an apt reflection on the mutual reinforcements of neoliberalism, precarization, and populism. By looking at these two novels together through the lens of right-wing populism and notions such as the Capitalocene (Moore), the Trumpocene (Colebrook) and the “critical utopia” (Moylan), I consider how the future climate catastrophes that these novels imagine are equally likely “to be used as opportunities to advance and entrench socially regressive forms of politics and unsustainable trajectories […] as inspire forms of ‘disaster collectivism,’ where acts of community and solidarity flourish” (Newell, 2020: 157). As novels that are deeply concerned with the politics of the present, I consider how Robinson’s and Beckett’s novels are inspired by different utopian inflections that lead to different outcomes but similar diagnoses: that the worst effects of climate change will not be averted because humanity seems bent on its current trajectory.

Post-trial access practice in malaria, tuberculosis, and NTDs clinical trial studies in Sub-Saharan African countries, quantitative study

This article discusses two climate fiction novels—one British, one American—that were written in the runup to two major political events on either side of the Atlantic in 2016—the Brexit referendum and the election of Donald Trump to the US presidency—and considers how their focus on a future climate emergency serves as an apt reflection on the mutual reinforcements of neoliberalism, precarization, and populism. By looking at these two novels together through the lens of right-wing populism and notions such as the Capitalocene (Moore), the Trumpocene (Colebrook) and the “critical utopia” (Moylan), I consider how the future climate catastrophes that these novels imagine are equally likely “to be used as opportunities to advance and entrench socially regressive forms of politics and unsustainable trajectories […] as inspire forms of ‘disaster collectivism,’ where acts of community and solidarity flourish” (Newell, 2020: 157). As novels that are deeply concerned with the politics of the present, I consider how Robinson’s and Beckett’s novels are inspired by different utopian inflections that lead to different outcomes but similar diagnoses: that the worst effects of climate change will not be averted because humanity seems bent on its current trajectory.

A dual-level graph attention network and transformer for enhanced trajectory prediction under road network constraints

Predicting vehicle future trajectories enables various Location-Based Services (LBS), including traffic flow monitoring, vehicle route planning, etc. Vehicles are constrained to predefined road networks. Their traveling behaviors are influenced by both their own attributes and road network characteristics hidden in other vehicles’ travel histories. Most of the existing methods fail to sufficiently leverage such collaborative trajectory data under road network constraints. This paper proposes a novel model, called HGT-RN (Hierarchical Graph Attention Network and Transformer Networks for Enhanced Trajectory Prediction under Road Network Constraints), which exploits all vehicles’ trajectories and integrates road network constraints. Specifically, HGT-RN creates a dual-level Graph Attention Network (GAT) based on global traffic flow and local individual trajectory graph to learn trajectory embeddings: (i) Weighted-directional global traffic flow graph and Weighted-Directional GAT to learn the global-level trajectory embedding by aggregating the neighbors’ embeddings based on the spatial transitional relationships among road intersections over all vehicles’ trajectories, considering the preference of current trajectory; and (ii) Local individual trajectory graph attention network to learn the local-level trajectory embedding by modeling the transitions within the current trajectory at each intersection. When incorporating the trajectory embeddings into a transformer model for future trajectory prediction, a road network topology-aware loss function is designed to improve accuracy. Extensive experiments conducted on three city-scale real-world taxi trajectory datasets demonstrate that HGT-RN significantly outperforms existing baseline models. The code is available at https://github.com/zjy9826/HGT-RN.

Back to the Past: A Systematic Review of Immersive Narrative in Cultural Heritage Conservation

ABSTRACTImmersive narrative creates a vivid experiential environment that allows users to be participants rather than mere observers, holding immense potential in the field of cultural heritage. However, current research primarily focuses on technological applications and integration, lacking in‐depth exploration of the fusion between technology and content as well as limited user engagement. Following a systematic review methodology, this study conducted searches and two rounds of screening in 7 major databases, resulting in the inclusion of 176 studies on immersive narrative in cultural heritage conservation. The study summarizes and extracts the current state, development trajectory, trends, research methods, and key elements in this field, innovatively categorizing them into 6 core levels of research patterns while proposing corresponding optimization strategies. Additionally, this study identifies research gaps and suggests future directions, aiming to facilitate the enhancement of immersive narrative development and deepen user engagement in the cultural heritage field.

Sustainable Maritime Transport: A Review of Intelligent Shipping Technology and Green Port Construction Applications

With the global economy’s relentless growth and heightened environmental consciousness, sustainable maritime transport emerges as a pivotal development trajectory for the shipping sector. This study systematically analyzes 478 publications searched in the Web of Science Core Collection, from 2000 to 2023, utilizing bibliometric methods to investigate the application areas in sustainable development within the shipping industry. This study begins with an analysis of annual publication trends, which reveals a substantial expansion in research endeavors within this discipline over recent years. Subsequently, a comprehensive statistical evaluation of scholarly journals and a collaborative network assessment are conducted to pinpoint the foremost productive journals, nations, organizations, and individual researchers. Furthermore, a keyword co-occurrence methodology is applied to delineate the core research themes and emerging focal points within this domain, thereby outlining potential research directions for future research. In addition, drawing on the keyword co-occurrence analysis, the advancements in intelligent shipping technologies and green port construction applications within sustainable maritime transport are discussed. Finally, the review discusses the existing challenges and opportunities of sustainable maritime transport from a theoretical and practical perspective. The research shows that, in terms of intelligent shipping technology, data security and multi-source data are the focus that people need to pay attention to in the future; a trajectory prediction for different climates and different ship types is also an area for future research. In terms of green ports, Cold Ironing (CI) is one of the key points of the green port strategy, and how to drive stakeholders to build sustainable green ports efficiently and economically is the future developmental direction. This review serves to enhance researchers’ comprehension of the current landscape and progression trajectory of intelligent shipping technologies, thereby fostering the continued advancement and exploration in this vital domain.

Projected health workforce requirements and shortage for addressing the disease burden in the WHO Africa Region, 2022–2030: a needs-based modelling study

IntroductionAn adequate health workforce (HWF) is essential to achieving the targets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), including universal health coverage. However, weak HWF planning and constrained fiscal space for...

Freeform trajectory generation for fiber reinforced polymer composites additive manufacturing with variable-deposition-width

Continuous carbon fiber-reinforced polymers (CCFRPs) printing is a unique additive manufacturing (AM) technique that enhances design flexibility and enables on-demand production of lightweight, high-strength composite parts. However, current trajectory generation methods for CCFRPs-AM have limited control over fiber placement and flexible matrix path infill, particularly in complex regions, often using constant deposition widths that restrict path coverage and mechanical properties. To address these limitations, this paper presents a variable-deposition-width (VDW) trajectory generation method for CCFRPs-AM. The approach integrates a streamline-based technique for fiber paths with a Voronoi diagram-based method for matrix path generation, optimizing path placement based on 2D stress fields while accommodating user-defined fiber paths. Mechanical tests by us on fabricated open-hole composite components demonstrate that the proposed approach enhances the interfacial bonding and increases the maximal loading capacity under tensile stress.

Perception analysis of TCE holders about ownership, possession, use, misuse and misappropriation in India

Abstract The discussions at The Intergovernmental Committee on Intellectual Property and Genetic Resources, Traditional Knowledge and Folklore (IGC) under the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) (WIPO IGC) are progressing towards formulating an international legal framework for the protection of traditional cultural expressions (TCEs). We anticipate that the successful conclusion of the 2024 Diplomatic Conference for the adoption of the WIPO Intellectual Property, Genetic Resources, and Associated Traditional Knowledge (GRTK) Treaty will accelerate the negotiations for an instrument for TCE. Proposals before the WIPO IGC indicate the possibility of adopting an IP-based framework to protect TCEs. This article aims to analyse the intricate relationships between TCE holders and their cultural expressions by exploring the conceptual issues in TCEs through an empirical study. The study focuses on seven selected TCEs from India and examines the perspective of communities regarding various aspects of TCE, such as ownership, possession, use, misuse and misappropriation. The objective of this investigation is to gain insights that will assist in designing a legal framework that is suitable for TCEs. The article emphasizes the importance of reassessing the current trajectory of negotiations concerning TCEs and stresses the need to further explore and gain a deeper understanding of TCEs.

GLOBALIZING SOCIETY AND THE COSMOPOLITAN PERSONALITY

The global changes in the 21st century regarding human populations speak of the changed position regarding the nation-state and the attempts of its institutions to control social, economic, and political life, as it has been done for centuries. In itself, this is a symptom of serious changes in the relationship between man and the world. The process of globalization, related to the crisis that the nation-state is going through, does not necessarily mean a finding of its decline. Rather, it expresses the fact that in the state of globality, the nation-state finds itself in a completely changed environment to which it must find ways to adapt to be able to define itself anew. The process of cosmopolitanism can be accepted as one of the options for this self-determination. Regionalism as a socio-structural phenomenon is limited at certain times by the social space and the individuals in it. Rationalism is a form of glocalization, while cosmopolitanism allows for this mobility, both of and in the social, and for the formation of a specific, cosmopolitan worldview on the part of the individual. Today, we as "mobile people" are characterized not only by our technological mobility (owning and carrying with us various technological gadgets) but also by our extremely flexible and (if we wish) full awareness of what is happening around us. us. Another question is, however, whether the setting of internal limitations by the person himself in front of himself, and of what he will undertake as an action, will be realized as an intention or will have the strength to set before himself as a goal to overcome and extinguishes the risky situations that await him in the future. Even if cosmopolitan in spirit, individual human subjectivity will always be the bearer of concrete facts such as origin, bioanthropological characteristics, value, and moral specifics, but they are not the leading ones. The individual specifics are the individual nuances in the rich originality that represents the cosmopolitan personality. Cosmopolitanism as the current and future social trajectory of humanity must be and lead to the absence of antagonistic, separating boundaries that are embedded in our human nature.

MORE MILK, FEWER FARMS, and REGIONAL CONCENTRATION: MAPPING TRANSFORMATIONS IN CALIFORNIA’S DAIRY INDUSTRY

ABSTRACT The transformation of California’s dairy industry is a prime example of structural change in agriculture. The state has been on the leading edge of changes in the geography of food and agriculture for 150 years, and many characteristics of modern large-scale agriculture emerged—or reached their culmination—in California. We examine the spatial transformation of dairy production in California as a window into the potential futures for the dairy industry both within California and elsewhere. We use data from county agricultural reports and USDA Censuses of Agriculture data to demonstrate, through a series of original maps and animations, the dramatic increase in production of milk, the rapid fall in the number of dairies, and the spatial redistribution of the industry over the past 40 years. These visualizations reveal illustrative spatial patterns and insights into rapid changes in the geography of dairy production—and agriculture more generally—within California. Based on these visualizations and analyses, we propose a framework for understanding the intersecting phenomena of dairy transformations in California: regional concentration, industry consolidation, and farm-level intensification. In explaining how these processes are nested, overlapping, and multiscalar, we offer an account of past and current trajectories, while examining the applicability and implications of these findings for other dairy-producing regions into the future.

Global research progress of electroencephalography applications in attention deficit hyperactivity disorder: Bibliometrics and visualized analysis.

Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a profound neurodevelopmental disorder. Currently, the diagnosis of ADHD relies on clinical assessments and lacks objective testing. Research in electroencephalography (EEG) offers new hope for the diagnosis of ADHD, with researchers actively seeking objective EEG biomarkers. This study conducts a bibliometric analysis of the application of EEG in ADHD, aiming to provide a brief overview of the characteristics, main research areas, development paths, and trends in this field. The Web of Science Core Collection was queried on June 10, 2024, to gather relevant scholarly works from the period of 2004 to 2023. Analysis was conducted using CiteSpace, VOSviewer, and Microsoft Excel 2019. In the past 20 years, 1162 documents qualified, with a swift rise in annual publications. The USA, University of London, and Barry RJ led in productivity and impact, while the Clinical Neurophysiology topped in publication volume and citations. High-frequency terms include "ADHD," "EEG," "event-related potentials (ERP)," "children," and "neurofeedback." Clustering key terms such as "cognitive control," "theta waves," "epilepsy," "graph theory," "machine learning," and "neurofeedback" form the cornerstone of the current core research areas. At the same time, a series of emerging research frontiers are gradually emerging, including "theta/beta ratio (TBR)," "P300 wave," "neurofeedback," and "deep learning." Over the past 2 decades, research on the application of EEG in ADHD has been burgeoning, with themes becoming increasingly profound. These insights provide key guidance on current trends, development trajectories, and future challenges in the field.