Current Risk Assessment Methodologies Research Articles

Assessment of Risk Factors in Condominium Buildings Construction in Metro Manila using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

The rapid urbanization of Metro Manila led to a surge in condominium construction projects, which, despite offering efficient housing solutions, faced significant challenges due to dense urban environment, susceptibility to natural disasters & the health and safety issues related to accidents, losses, injuries, damages, and/or delays arising during the execution of a project which may adversely affect its success. This study explored the efficacy of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in assessing and prioritizing risks specific to Metro Manila's condominium construction projects, addressing a critical gap in current risk assessment methodologies. The study engaged mixed methods, integrating Meta-Analysis, Experts Consultation, and AHP, to identify and prioritize Risk Factors (RFs) in condominium construction projects. A systematic review through meta-analysis revealed nine critical RFs, including Technical/Design, Financial/Economic, Environmental, Regulatory/Legal, Socio-Political, Logistics/Supply Chain, Management/Supervision, Quality, and Health and Safety Risks. Inputs from experts from a diverse group of qualified professionals had been pooled to validate these findings. Through AHP analysis, risks specific to Metro Manila's condominium construction projects were revealed, with Health and Safety Risk (19.52%), Quality Risk (15.97%) and Management/Supervision Risk (15.77%) as the major concerns. An internal consistency of 0.71% attested to the reliability testing of the results. Given the complexity of condominium construction projects, this study responds to an important demand: a more systemic understanding of risk factors. Moreover, this study is relevant to further enhance and improve sustainability in condominium projects as well as performance of the construction industry.

A systems-based analysis to rethink the European environmental risk assessment of regulated chemicals using pesticides as a pilot case

A growing body of scientific literature stresses the need to advance current environmental risk assessment (ERA) methodologies and associated regulatory frameworks to better address the landscape-scale and long-term impact of pesticide use on biodiversity and the ecosystem. Moreover, more collaborative and integrative approaches are needed to meet sustainability goals. The One Health approach is increasingly applied by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) to support the transition towards safer, healthier and more sustainable food. To this end, EFSA commissioned the development of a roadmap for action to establish a European Partnership for next-generation, systems-based Environmental Risk Assessment (PERA). Here, we summarise the main conclusions and recommendations reported in the 2022 PERA Roadmap. This roadmap highlights that fragmentation of data, knowledge and expertise across regulatory sectors results in suboptimal processes and hinders the implementation of integrative ERA approaches needed to better protect the environment. To advance ERA, we revisited the underlying assumptions of the current ERA paradigm; that chemical risks are generally assessed and managed in isolation with a substance-by-substance, realistic worst-case and tiered approach. We suggest optimising the use of the vast amount of information and expertise available with pesticides as a pilot area. It is recommended to as soon as possible adopt a systems-based approach, i.e. within the current regulatory framework, to spark a step-wise transition towards an ERA framed at a system level of ecological and societal relevance. Tangible systems-based and integrative steps are available. For instance, the rich sources of existing data for prospective and retrospective ERA of pesticides could be used to reality-benchmark existing and new ERA methods. To achieve these goals, collaboration among stakeholders across scientific disciplines and regulatory sectors must be strengthened.

Capturing cascading consequences is required to reflect risk from climate change and natural hazards

Climate change and natural hazards present a major risk to individuals and communities; however, the current quantitative risk assessment methodologies struggle to capture the wider consequences that arise from society’s complex interconnections. These complex interconnections exist due to the number of mutually dependent systems and mean that impacts on one system can be felt in another. These cascading impacts present a major challenge to climate risk assessments. Climate risk assessments often consider a range of “wellbeing” or “value” domains; for example, in New Zealand the five wellbeing domains are Natural Environment, Human, Economic, Built Environment, and Governance. Existing assessments have sought to characterize the risk to each domain, but do not quantitatively or rigorously consider the interplay between the domains. For example, how does the risk to the human domain change as a result of the impacts to the built environment? This interplay and the ensuing cascading impacts could substantially modify the assessed risk. The change could potentially alter the prioritization and subsequent adaptation plans. In this paper, we show that considering cascading impacts not only increases the magnitude of risk but can shift the prioritization. This highlights the importance of capturing cascading impacts for effective adaptation to climate change.

Improving the decision-making basis by strengthening the risk assessments of unexploded ordnance and explosive remnants of war

For many countries, the legacy of armed conflict in the form of unexploded ordnance has a severe impact on society and daily life, as millions of tonnes of explosive remnants of war represent a grave threat to both the environment and societal safety and security. Recent and dramatic changes in the security situation in Europe sadly demonstrate that explosive remnants of war are not, however, only a thing of the past. This makes it especially relevant to evaluate how we assess and manage this risk today and how, if possible, this practice could be improved.In the present paper, we will outline some of the particularities that differentiate risk assessments of unexploded ordnance from other, more familiar, risks and discuss whether the current methodology can be considered relevant and appropriate.We find that the different risk assessment methodologies generally in use today, as described in applicable guidelines and regulations, are principally unsuitable for this use and, in addition, sometimes also ambiguous, inconsistent and incompatible. In particular, we find that any model based on a risk assessment that does not include an evaluation of background knowledge and associated uncertainties cannot be regarded as an optimal or appropriate risk assessment tool, when assessing a risk typically characterized by high complexity and uncertainty.The conclusion of this investigation is that the current risk assessment methodology for assessing risks related to unexploded ordnance and explosive remnants of war urgently needs to be revised, in order to improve the decision-making basis.

A review on risk assessment in managed aquifer recharge

Managed aquifer recharge (MAR) refers to a suite of methods that is increasingly being applied worldwide for sustainable groundwater management to tackle drinking or irrigation water shortage or to restore and maintain groundwater ecosystems. The potential for MAR is far from being exhausted, not only due to geological and hydrogeological conditions or technical and economic feasibility but also due to its lack of acceptance by the public and policymakers. One approach to enable the safe and accepted use of MAR could be to provide comprehensive risk management, including the identification, analysis, and evaluation of potential risks related to MAR. This article reviews current MAR risk assessment methodologies and guidelines and summarizes possible hazards and related processes. It may help planners and operators select the appropriate MAR risk assessment approaches and support the risk identification process. In addition to risk assessment (and subsequent risk treatment) related to the MAR implementation phase, this review also addresses risk assessment for MAR operation. We also highlight the limitations and lessons learned from the application and development of risk assessment methodologies. Moreover, developments are recommended in the area of MAR-related risk assessment methodologies and regulation. Depending on data availability, collected methodologies may be applicable for MAR sites worldwide. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2022;18:1513-1529. © 2022 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Workshop on allergenicity assessment – prediction

An online workshop on allergenicity assessment, held on the 15th-16th of June 2021, was organised by the Allergenicity Working Group of the EFSA Panel on Genetically Modified Organisms (EFSA GMO Panel). The aim of the workshop was to set the scene on the current state-of-the-art in the science of allergenicity assessment and to define what specific elements of such assessment need to be developed to move forward a field still in its infancy. The formulation of specific research requirements for allergenicity assessment and protein safety in general is urgently needed in a world that demands more sustainable food systems. The outcome of the workshop will guide the EFSA GMO Panel in the preparation of a Scientific Opinion focused on 1) improving the allergenicity risk assessment for products derived from biotechnology, 2) defining knowledge gaps, 3) determining how new basic research findings and technological developments can improve the current risk assessment methodology, and 4) prioritizing basic research funding, amongst others. Collaboration and engagement with stakeholders, academia and the scientific international community at large will be encouraged. The overall conclusion from the workshop was that science policy makers and the community overall should prioritize and dedicate more future resources to this topic. Our society demands innovative foods, which will strongly challenge the current allergenicity assessment paradigm, and it is the responsibility of risk assessors to make sure that we are ready for the future.

A multi-criteria decision making approach to security assessment of hazardous facilities

Mainly influenced by the security assessment guidelines issued by, for example, the American Petroleum Institute (API, 2003), most of the methodologies developed for security risk assessment in hazardous industries have been based on the scoring of security risk parameters sequentially and largely independently of each other. The parameters’ individual scores identified in such way are usually combined via linear relationships – additive or multiplicative – to calculate the final security risk score of a facility. As a result of such hierarchical scoring and linearization, the interactions among the security risk parameters, for example, the mutual influence between the type of threat and the target assets will be disregarded. This, in turn, could undermine the results of security risk analysis and subsequent rank ordering of units. In the present study, we have investigated the applicability of analytic network process (ANP) to security-based rank ordering of hazardous facilities such as chemical plants. While different techniques can be used to score individual risk parameters, ANP will enable considering mutual interactions, modifying the linearity of current security risk assessment methodologies.

Regulatory Forum Review*: Utility of in Vitro Secondary Pharmacology Data to Assess Risk of Drug-induced Valvular Heart Disease in Humans: Regulatory Considerations.

Drug-induced valvular heart disease (VHD) is a serious side effect linked to long-term treatment with 5-hydroxytryptamine (serotonin) receptor 2B (5-HT2B) agonists. Safety assessment for off-target pharmacodynamic activity is a common approach used to screen drugs for this undesired property. Such studies include in vitro assays to determine whether the drug is a 5-HT2B agonist, a necessary pharmacological property for development of VHD. Measures of in vitro binding affinity (IC50, Ki) or cellular functional activity (EC50) are often compared to maximum therapeutic free plasma drug levels ( fCmax) from which safety margins (SMs) can be derived. However, there is no clear consensus on what constitutes an appropriate SM under various therapeutic conditions of use. The strengths and limitations of SM determinations and current risk assessment methodology are reviewed and evaluated. It is concluded that the use of SMs based on Ki values, or those relative to serotonin (5-HT), appears to be a better predictor than the use of EC50 or EC50/human fCmax values for determining whether known 5-HT2B agonists have resulted in VHD. It is hoped that such a discussion will improve efforts to reduce this preventable serious drug-induced toxicity from occurring and lead to more informed risk assessment strategies.

Theoretical and practical issues for the measurement of protective factors

Abstract Although research into the theoretical and practical implications of protective factors within a rehabilitative context is still in its infancy, it is possible that they can provide improvements in a number of key areas related to offender management and treatment. However, there are several important issues that must be considered and resolved for the measurement of protective factors to be regarded as valid and reliable. Some of these relate to core questions regarding the nature of protective factors, including how to best clarify current conceptualisations of protective factors and questions regarding our current approach to the identification and validation of protective factors. We additionally discuss more practical issues related to the incorporation of protective factors into current risk assessment methodologies, including implications that this will have for the scoring of actuarial tools. We hope that raising awareness of these issues results in fruitful directions for further discussions and research in this area.

Ground Motion Data Profile of Western Turkey with Intelligent Hybrid Processing

The recent earthquakes caused severe damages on the existing buildings. By this motivation, an important amount of research work has been conducted to determine the seismic risk of seismically active regions. For an accurate seismic risk assessment, processing of ground motions would provide an advantage. Using the current technology, it is not possible to precisely predict the future earthquakes. Therefore, most of the current seismic risk assessment methodologies are based on statistical evaluation by using recurrence and magnitude of the earthquakes hit the specified region. Because of the limited number of records on earthquakes, the quality of definitions is questionable. Fuzzy logic algorithm can be used to improve the quality of the definition. In the present study, ground motion data profile of western Turkey is defined using an intelligent hybrid processing. The approach is given in a practical way for an easier and faster calculation. Earthquake data between 1970 and 1999 from western part of Turkey have been used for training. The results are tested and validated with the earthquake data between 2000 and 2015 of the same region. Enough approximation was validated between calculated values and the earthquake data by using the intelligent hybrid processing.

CHEAT: An updated approach for incorporating human factors in cyber-security assessments

The human element has been identified as a contributing factor in over 95% of cyber-security incidents. Current technical risk assessment methodologies, such as the IS1-2 Supplement, go some way to quantifying the characteristics of non-malicious insider attacks. However, the approaches are based on historical understanding of the user group, organisational security culture and past security breaches, and do not fully consider the psychological motivations that give rise to human error in cyber-security scenarios. Applied knowledge of human limitations and cognitive biases was used to derive a structured approach to capture typical human errors as part of cyber-security assessments. By recognising the psychological root causes behind human errors in cyber-security scenarios, one can identify appropriate risk management and mitigating strategies, in the same way that human reliability analysis tools, such as the Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART), mitigate human error as part of safety case evidence. This article presents the cyber human error assessment tool, a structured approach to address human factor considerations in cyber-security assessments.

Evaluation of Available Tools for Assessment of Emerging Risks of Nanomaterials

The environmental and health effects of nanomaterials represent significant emerging risks. However, there is at present rather limited knowledge regarding the ways in which nanomaterials might be released from products and enter the environment or how they are transported and accumulate in ecosystems. Additional data is therefore needed to estimate the possible release of nanomaterials at various stages of the life- cycle to allow identification of potential pathways into the environment. Available tools for risk assessment of nanomaterials are reviewed with the aim of identifying unknowns and uncertainties and data requirements. To carry out risk assessment it is first necessary to determine where nanomaterials are likely to present hazards that are different from those of conventional chemicals and therefore where the challenges will be greatest. Some of the limitations of current risk assessment methodologies for nanomaterials are examined.

Global lung cancer risk from PAH exposure highly depends on emission sources and individual susceptibility.

The health impacts of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), the most concerning organic pollutants, depend not only on the locations and strengths of emission sources, but also on individual susceptibility. Moreover, trans-boundary transport makes them a global concern. In this study, a comprehensive analysis of the global health impacts of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in ambient air is presented. Model resolution is critical in exposure modelling. Globally, incremental lifetime lung cancer risk (ILCR) induced by ambient PAH exposure is 3.1 × 10−5. If the individual susceptibility was not taken into consideration, the overall risk would be underestimated by 55% and the proportion of highly vulnerable population would be underestimated by more than 90%. Emphasizing on individual susceptibility, our study provides an instrumental revision of current risk assessment methodology. In terms of lung cancer risk, the most important sources are combustion of biomass fuels (40%) and fossil fuels (14%) in the residential/commercial sector, coke (13%) and aluminium (12%) production, and motor vehicles (9%). PAHs can travel long distance globally especially within the Eurasian continent. Still, the risk is dominantly contributed by local.

Benthic indicators of sediment quality associated with run-of-river reservoirs

Freshwater ecosystems have been fragmented by the construction of large numbers of dams. In addition to disruption of ecological continuity and physical disturbance downstream, accumulation of large amounts of sediment within run-of-river reservoirs constitutes a latent ecotoxic risk to aquatic communities. To date, run-of-river reservoirs and ecotoxic risks associated with contaminated sediment to the biodiversity and functioning of such systems are little studied. Therefore, the main objective of this study was to describe macroinvertebrate assemblages, and the functioning of these systems, and to propose indicators of sediment contamination to integrate in in-situ risk assessment methodology. To identify specific assemblages of run-of-river reservoirs, we first compared macroinvertebrate assemblages and their biotrait profiles (i.e. from a database of biological and ecological traits) in reservoirs (n = 6) and associated river sites (upstream and downstream of dams). Then, we compared responses of assemblages and biotrait profiles to sediment contamination of the banks and channels of reservoirs to select the most useful spatial scale to identify sediment contamination. Nineteen indicator taxa were observed to be specifically associated with channel habitats of reservoirs. Among these, the abundance of three taxa (Tanypodinae (Diptera), Ephemerella (Ephemeroptera) and Atherix (Diptera)) revealed the effect of metal sediment contamination. “Between-reservoirs” differences in their biotrait profile were found along the contamination gradient, with a shift of communities’ composition and functionality, and an increase in functional similarity. Many traits (response traits), for example “maximum size”, “transverse distribution”, “substrate preferences”, “saprobity”, “temperature”, “resistance forms”, and “locomotion”, were specifically linked to contamination of sediments by metals. This study indicates how sediment contamination can change the structural and functional composition of run-of-river reservoir assemblages. Indicator taxa and response traits identified in this study could improve current risk assessment methodology and potentially enable prediction of the risks of contaminated sediments stored in reservoirs in downstream ecosystems.

Radiation hormesis - A remedy for fear

Personal reflections on radiation hormesis for the past 50 years are presented. The causes of ignoring and rejections of this phenomenon by international and national bodies and by radiation protection establishment are analyzed. The opposition against nuclear weapons and preparations for nuclear war was probably the main factor in inducing the concern for adverse effects of low doses of ionizing radiation, a byproduct of activism against the nuclear weapon tests. UNSCEAR was deeply involved in preparation of the scientific basis for cessation of nuclear test, and contributed to elaboration of the LNT assumption, which is in contradiction with the hormetic phenomenon. However, this authoritative body recognized also the existence of radiation hormesis, termed as 'adaptive response.' The political and vested interests behind exclusion of hormesis from the current risk assessment methodology are discussed.

A multi-layer Criticality Assessment methodology based on interdependencies

In this paper we propose a holistic Criticality Assessment methodology, suitable for the development of an infrastructure protection plan in a multi-sector or national level. The proposed methodology aims to integrate existing security plans and risk assessments performed in isolated infrastructures, in order to assess sector-wide or intra-sector security risks. In order to achieve this, we define three different layers of security assessments with different requirements and goals; the operator layer, the sector layer and the intra-sector or national layer. We determine the characteristics of each layer, as well as their interdependencies. In this way, existing security plans can be fully exploited in order to provide a “shortcut” for the development of security plans for complex inter-dependent infrastructures. A key element in the proposed methodology is the formal definition of interdependencies between different infrastructures and their respective sectors. Interdependencies between infrastructures belonging to the same or to a different sector, as well as interdependencies between different sectors, act as interfaces through which threats and their impacts occurring on different layers or different sectors, are conveyed to others. Current risk assessment methodologies fail to address effectively this issue, thus, the formalization of these interfaces and their interference is an important element for the definition of a holistic Criticality Assessment methodology.

Health benefits of 'grow your own' food in urban areas: implications for contaminated land risk assessment and risk management?

Compelling evidence of major health benefits of fruit and vegetable consumption, physical activity, and outdoor interaction with 'greenspace' have emerged in the past decade - all of which combine to give major potential health benefits from 'grow-your-own' (GYO) in urban areas. However, neither current risk assessment models nor risk management strategies for GYO in allotments and gardens give any consideration to these health benefits, despite their potential often to more than fully compensate the risks. Although urban environments are more contaminated by heavy metals, arsenic, polyaromatic hydrocarbons and dioxins than most rural agricultural areas, evidence is lacking for adverse health outcomes of GYO in UK urban areas. Rarely do pollutants in GYO food exceed statutory limits set for commercial food, and few people obtain the majority of their food from GYO. In the UK, soil contamination thresholds triggering closure or remediation of allotment and garden sites are based on precautionary principles, generating 'scares' that may negatively impact public health disproportionately to the actual health risks of exposure to toxins through own-grown food. By contrast, the health benefits of GYO are a direct counterpoint to the escalating public health crisis of 'obesity and sloth' caused by eating an excess of saturated fats, inadequate consumption of fresh fruit and vegetables combined with a lack of exercise. These are now amongst the most important preventable causes of illness and death. The health and wider societal benefits of 'grow-your-own' thus reveal a major limitation in current risk assessment methodologies which, in only considering risks, are unable to predict whether GYO on particular sites will, overall, have positive, negative, or no net effects on human health. This highlights a more general need for a new generation of risk assessment tools that also predict overall consequences for health to more effectively guide risk management in our increasingly risk-averse culture.

Combining landslide and contaminant risk: a preliminary assessment

The aim of this paper is to highlight a not yet recognized hazard for mass failure (landslides) of contaminated soils into rivers and to provide an understanding of important interactions of such events. A first effort to investigate the problem is made focusing on the south eastern part of the Gota Alv river valley, in Sweden, by combining geographical information on potentially contaminated sites with slope stability levels on maps. The objectives of this study were to: (1) Review current Swedish risk assessment methodologies for contaminated areas and landslides, and analyze their capability to quantify the risk of contaminated areas being subject to landslides. (2) Investigate the presence of contaminated areas at landslide risk along the Gota Alv river valley. (3) Provide an overview of the national methods for landslide risk analysis and for environmental risk classification, followed by a comparison between the methods and the results from the superposition of the two methods for the study site. (4) Make a first attempt to conceptualize the release and transport mechanisms. Environmental risk assessment data of the study site was combined with data on slope stability levels. Conceptual issues of the release and transport scenario were identified and a first conceptual model was created. Of 31 potentially contaminated sites, eight had moderate to high probability for landslide, and of these eight sites, five were classified as having a high or very high environmental risk. These findings had not been revealed when the data had only been considered separately. The ‘actual’ risk could hence be even higher than the highest environmental risk class actually suggests. By visualizing results from the landslide risk analysis with the results from the environmental risk classification of contaminated sites, a better understanding of the potential hazard involved is obtained. The release mechanisms as a result of a landslide into surface water were conceptualized using two time scales: the instantaneous and the long-term release. It is clear that the Swedish method for landslide risk assessment and for environmental risk assessment of contaminated soil considers hazard events that are characterized by different time scales. The method for landslide risk assessment addresses events that are rapid (occurring over minutes) with instantaneous impact and consequences. Measurements are made within a short time after the event (days to months). The environmental risk assessment is done with respect to events that are slowly evolving (over years or decades) and any possible consequence materializes after a long period of time. The combined data provided a more solid basis for decisions; however, inherent difficulties when combining data based on different methods were revealed. Separate assessment methodologies executed by different authorities may lead to incorrect assessments and inappropriate protective measures. The effects and the consequences of landslides in areas with contaminated soil need to be further investigated. The climate change expected to occur over the next hundred years will increase the probability of slope failures, such as landslides, in many parts of the world where the precipitation is predicted to increase (e.g., in Scandinavia). This will accentuate the need for methods and models to assess the impact of such events. In order to achieve established environmental quality objectives there is an urgent need for models and assessment principles (criteria) for contaminated areas that are at risk of experiencing slope failure. Knowledge of the governing processes that control the release and transport of substances under a variety of conditions, taking into account characteristic spatial and temporal scales, is required.

The security of power systems and the role of information and communication technologies: lessons from the recent blackouts

This paper analyses the impact of information and communication technologies upon the security of networked infrastructures, making specific reference to the situation of the electric power sector. It discusses the lessons learnt from the recent blackouts, and concludes with the identification of the main technological security challenges faced in this field. In recent years, both Europe and the USA have experienced a significant number of huge blackouts, whose frequency and impact looks to be progressively growing. This paper shows that these events had common roots in the fact that current risk assessment methodologies and current system controls no longer appear to be adequate. Beyond the growing complexity of the electrical system as a whole, two main reasons can be listed: (1) system analysis procedures based on these methodologies did not identify security threats emerging from failures of critical physical components; and (2) online controls were not able to avoid system collapse.

Focusing on Children's Inhalation Dosimetry and Health Effects for Risk Assessment: An Introduction

Substantial effort has been invested in improving children's health risk assessment in recent years. However, the body of scientific evidence in support of children's health assessment is constantly advancing, indicating the need for continual updating of risk assessment methods. Children's inhalation dosimetry and child-specific adverse health effects are of particular concern for risk assessment. When focusing on this topic within children's health, key issues for consideration include (1) epidemiological evidence of adverse effects following children's exposure to air pollution, (2) ontogeny of the lungs and effects on dosimetry, (3) estimation and variability of children's inhalation rates, and (4) current risk assessment methodologies for addressing children. In this article, existing and emerging information relating to these key issues are introduced and discussed in an effort to better understand children's inhalation dosimetry and adverse health effects for risk assessment. While much useful evidence is currently available, additional research and methods are warranted for improved children's health risk assessment.