ABSTRACTPredicting the tunnel deformation caused by overlying excavation is a crucial catch in current rail transit construction. Most theoretical studies overlook the effect of dewatering on tunnel response. This study utilized Mindlin's stress solution and an improved incremental method to calculate the additional load resulting from excavation. The load increment due to dewatering was determined based on the effective stress principle and a modified Dupuit infiltration curve. Treating the tunnel as a series of segment rings on a Vlazov foundation, the energy variance method and a collaborative deformation model were employed to develop a tunnel deformation prediction model. The proposed model's validity was confirmed by examining two traceable cases. Based on this, further discussion addressed the impact of dewatering depth, tunnel burial depth, tunnel‐pit relative distance, and intersection angle on existing tunnel deformation. Finally, combining the proposed model with multiple regression analysis, a semi‐empirical method was established to determine the tunnel's maximum vertical displacement. The study found that dewatering extends the tunnel force range, and the tunnel subsidence was positively correlated with groundwater level drop depth. The increase in the tunnel burial depth and distance from the excavation center led to a longer soil unloading transfer path, resulting in reduced disturbance to the tunnel. A smaller intersection angle between the excavation's short edge and the tunnel led to less disturbance of the underlying tunnel, which should be avoided in practical engineering. The developed semi‐empirical formulae have sufficient engineering accuracy, guiding the reinforcement of the underlying tunnel.
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