Current Prices Research Articles

IMPACT OF E-COMMERCE AND INTERNET USERS ON INDONESIA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH

Economic growth refers to the expansion of economic activities that enhance the production of goods and services, ultimately improving societal welfare. It serves as a crucial indicator for analyzing a country's economic development, typically measured by the change in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) between consecutive years. Various indicators can assess Indonesia's economic condition, with national income being a significant metric supported by accurate GDP data, categorized into current and constant prices. Over time, developments have transformed the Indonesian economy, with electronic media becoming increasingly prevalent. The rise of electronic media has facilitated broader and more effective transactions through e-commerce. Identifying the impact of these transactions is essential to understand their relationship with economic growth, which is vital for enhancing the welfare of Indonesia's population. Additionally, the growth of internet users significantly influences the economy. As internet user numbers rise annually amid digitalization, the government is expected to promote wider internet access across the nation. The internet allows individuals to access vital information for business, education, and recreation, contributing to economic growth. Thus, this research analyzes the impact of e-commerce transaction value and internet users on Indonesia's economic growth from 2013 to 2023, using quantitative secondary data and multiple regression analysis.

Feasibility of snakehead fish hatchery (Channa striata) using a round pond in Labuan Amas Selatan district, Hulu Sungai Tengah regency, Kalimantan Selatan province, Indonesia

<p>This study aims to determine the technicalities and analyze the feasibility of <em>snakehead fish</em> (<em>Chana striata</em>) hatchery using round ponds in Labuan Amas Selatan District. The data collection methods used are observation, interviews, and documentation. The data analysis used is a qualitative descriptive analysis to determine the technical aspects of the fish hatchery, financial analysis to determine the feasibility of the business with profit analysis, Payback Period (PP), Break Event Point (BEP), Net Present Value (NPV), Net Benefit Cost (Net B/C), and Internal Rate of Return (IRR). The study results show that <em>snakehead fish</em> hatchery using round ponds produces <em>snakehead fish</em> seed in 7 cycles in one year; in each cycle, 6–10 pairs of <em>snakehead fish</em> are used, which can be spawned with an average nursery time of 1.5 months. <em>Snakehead fish</em> cultivation techniques include broodstock maintenance, broodstock selection, spawning, larval transfer and maintenance, nursery, harvesting, and marketing. The results of the business feasibility analysis obtained a profit value of IDR 63,465,000/year with a speedy return on investment for 1.64 years, the BEP value of production = 20,742 seed < the production value = 56,000 seed, and the BEP price of IDR 667/seed < the current price = IDR 1,800/seed. The NPV value at the hatchery reached IDR 366,007,925, meaning NPV > 0, Net B/C > 1 value of 4.62, and IRR value of 62.81%, which means it is greater than the current interest rate of 6%. Based on various financial analyses, the <em>snakehead fish</em> hatchery business using round ponds is profitable and feasible.<strong></strong></p>

Energy Storage Solutions to De-Carbonize the Electric Supply in Jordan

This paper aims to estimate the size of Energy Storage Systems (ESS) required de-carbonizing the electrical network in Jordan. Load profile in addition to the PV and Wind energy profiles were studied and used as input data to the simulation model. Different cases of RE penetration levels as a percentage of load demand were considered and entered to the simulation model as well. Other factors, such as allowed over-generation and ESS efficiency also provided and calculations carried out accordingly. In addition to the technical consideration, an economic analysis approach added to the study. Results show that staying with the current level of RE penetrations, i.e. at PV 11% and W 9% (RE level 20% of load demand) and 5% curtailment, no need to install ESS to absorb the RE intermittency and variability. As RE penetration level increases, the need for ESS becomes necessary, i.e. to reach 100% RE penetration and de-carbonize the electrical network accordingly, an ESS of 138,900.00MWH/ 7,386.57MW PHES would be required at PV 65% and Wind 35% penetration level and 25% curtailment with initial CAPEX investment of JOD 15,367,314,444.10. Economic feasibility study shows that with the current RE energy prices and ESS CAPEX, reaching the 100% RE penetration level would not be the optimum solution as there will be a negative cost impact, unless these prices reduced to a certain level making the solution feasible.

Process improvement under the reference price effect

Cost-reducing process improvement, leading to price reductions and consequently sales growth, is becoming increasingly relevant in today’s uncertain economic environment. However, existing process improvement studies involving sales growth typically assume that consumers only consider the current price of a product when making a purchase. In reality, sales growth also often stems from the reference price effect, where consumers factor in both the current and past prices. By incorporating the reference price effect, we examine the process improvement investment decisions and pricing strategies in a decentralized supply chain. We develop a two-period game-theoretic model, where the supplier invests in process improvement to reduce production costs, and the supplier and the retailer set their prices. This approach differs from existing reference price effect literature, where prices are predetermined exogenously in a decentralized supply chain. We find that the reference price effect stimulates process improvement investment, making both firms more profitable. However, a more prominent reference price effect may significantly decrease supply chain efficiency in the presence of process improvement, resulting in lower profits that move away from what an integrated firm would achieve. When firms set their own prices, the reference price effect intensifies competition for profits and worsens misalignment caused by process improvement. This outcome contrasts with existing studies, which usually argue that the reference price effect increases efficiency. Therefore, managers should consider consumer responses to price changes when making process improvement investment decisions and analyze their impacts on both supply chain profitability and efficiency.

Informing HPV vaccine pricing for government-funded vaccination in mainland China: a modelling study

The high price of HPV vaccines remains a significant barrier to vaccine accessibility in China, hindering the country's efforts toward cervical cancer elimination and exacerbating health inequity. We aimed to inform HPV vaccine price negotiations by identifying threshold prices that ensure that a government-funded HPV vaccination programme is cost-effective or cost-saving. We used a previously validated transmission model to estimate the health and economic impact of HPV vaccination over a 100-year time horizon from a healthcare payer perspective. Threshold analysis was conducted considering different settings (national, rural, and urban), cervical cancer screening scenarios (cytology-based or HPV DNA-based, with different paces of scale-up), vaccine types (four types available in China), vaccine schedules (two-dose or one-dose), mode of vaccination (routine vaccination with or without later switching to high-valency vaccines), willingness-to-pay thresholds, and decision-making criteria (cost-effective or cost-saving). Furthermore, we examined the budget impact of introducing nationwide vaccination at the identified threshold prices. Using the current market price, national routine HPV vaccination with any currently available vaccine is unlikely cost-effective. Under a two-dose schedule, the prices of the four available HPV vaccine types cannot exceed $26-$36 per dose (44.1%-80.2% reduction from current market prices) depending on vaccine type to ensure the cost-effectiveness of the national programme. Adopting vaccination at threshold prices would require an annual increase of 72.18%-96.95% of the total annual National Immunization Programme (NIP) budget in China. A cost-saving routine vaccination programme requires vaccine prices of $5-$10 per dose (depending on vaccine type), producing a 21.38%-34.23% increase in the annual NIP budget. Adding the second dose is unlikely to be cost-effective compared to a one-dose schedule, with the threshold price approaching or even falling below zero. Rural pilot vaccination programmes require lower threshold prices compared with a national programme. Our study could inform vaccine price negotiation and thus facilitate nationwide scale-up of current HPV vaccination pilot programmes in China. The evidence may potentially be valuable to other countries facing HPV introduction barriers due to high costs. This approach may also be adapted for other contexts that involve the introduction of a pricy vaccine. CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences (CIFMS); Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Wealth maximisation and residential energy-efficiency retrofits: Insights from a real options model

The slow adoption of residential energy-efficiency retrofits continues to hamper the energy transition. We study incentives for adoption by proposing a model of optimal investment under uncertainty where the wealth-maximising agent has the option to delay. Stochastic portfolio returns and energy prices are taken into account. An extension of the model where the energy carrier is switched, e.g. from gas to electricity, is also considered. Exercise boundaries for the optimal stopping problem are estimated numerically for recent case studies of German buildings. Investment is generally not optimal at current energy prices and market conditions. Increasing correlation between gas and electricity prices erodes the value of technology switching. Comparative statics reveal that energy-efficiency investments become optimal at relatively lower energy prices as wealth, income, and savings behaviour increase, and portfolio drift and volatility decrease. Consequently, incentive to invest in retrofits is far more heterogeneous along wealth dimensions than standard discounted cash flow analyses suggest. An examination of retrofit subsidies demonstrates how free-riding by wealthier agents occurs when subsidies are not appropriately targeted. We also show that the pursuit of economic efficiency in subsidy design might have regressive effects on the wealth distribution.

Atezolizumab monotherapy as first-line treatment for non-small cell lung cancer ineligible for treatment with a platinum-containing regimen (IPSOS): a cost-effectiveness analysis in the USA

ObjectiveThis study explores the cost-effectiveness of atezolizumab monotherapy compared with chemotherapy as first-line treatment for stage IIIB or IV non-small cell lung cancer (IIIB/IV-NSCLC) ineligible for platinum-based chemotherapy from a...

Dynamic Price Monitoring in E-Commerce: Leveraging Web Scraping, Data Analysis, and Email Automation for Dynamic Pricing Insights

This paper focuses on the development of a web application that leverages web scraping, data storage, and email automation technologies to track real-time price changes for specific products on e-commerce platforms. Built using Next.js for the frontend, MongoDB as the database, and Nodemailer for email notifications, the system aims to provide users with a comprehensive and user-friendly interface to monitor price fluctuations. By scraping data from product pages, the application gathers key pricing metrics, including the average, lowest, highest, and current prices, and presents this information visually to help users make informed purchasing decisions. By utilizing the combination of web scraping and real-time data analysis, this project provides a dynamic solution for both consumers and businesses, offering valuable insights into price changes and trends in the competitive e-commerce landscape.

Real world economic evaluation of CT-FFR in patients with suspected coronary artery disease

Abstract Background Incorporation of CT-derived fractional flow reserve (CT-FFR) enhances the precision of Coronary CT Angiography (CCTA) to detect hemodynamically significant coronary artery disease (CAD). However, the financial consequences remain unclear. Purpose Our objective is to assess the economic implications of CT-FFR in the Dutch Healthcare system. Methods This retrospective, single-center cost effectiveness analysis includes patient data of a previously published study assessing the impact of routine CT-FFR availability on clinical management. We collected medical resource use for both diagnostic and therapeutic cardiovascular care with a follow-up duration of 1 year. Costs of CT-FFR analysis were set at €1000, its current price for Dutch hospitals. Median total costs at were compared using the Wilcoxon rank sum test, including a sensitivity analysis in which cost estimations (without registered maximum tariffs) were increased or decreased with 10%. Results A total of 360 patients, classified as having low to intermediate risk of CAD, were enrolled in the study – 224 in the CCTA group and 136 in the CT-FFR group. In addition to undergoing more (invasive) diagnostic testing and revascularization procedures over the studied period, patients in the CCTA-group had more outpatient clinic consultations (p<0.001), presented more frequently to the emergency department (p=0.035) and spend more nights in the hospital (p=0.11). Median costs were €3.347 (IQR €1.066 – €4.862) in the CCTA-group and €1.436 (IQR €1.362 - €3.943) in the CT-FFR group (p=0.091). Increasing cost estimation with 10% revealed a median of €3.431 in the CCTA-group versus €1.479 in the CT-FFR group (p=0.078), decreasing with 10% showed median costs of €3.263 in the CCTA-group and €1.392 in the CT-FFR group (p=0.118). In our sample, CT-FFR guided care would have been significantly cheaper than CCTA-guided care at or below a market price of €770. Conclusion Despite the significant reduction in additional diagnostic testing and hospital visits in the CT-FFR group, CT-FFR guided care was not cheaper than CCTA-guided care at its current market price of €1.000. Economic cost-effectiveness would have occurred from a price of €770 per analysis. The large difference between medians suggests that the lack of significance might partially be attributed to insufficient power in this relatively small sample size. Additionally, this study did not account for costs associated with loss of productivity and quality of life. However, less additional diagnostic testing, less revascularization procedures and less hospital consultations and admissions leads to reduction in hospital resource consumption and patient burden, which is an important advantage of CT-FFR as the number of referred patients increases yearly.

Semaglutide for the secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease in people with overweight or obesity, but without diabetes: a cost-effectiveness analysis

Abstract Background The recently published trial, SELECT (Semaglutide Effects on Cardiovascular Outcomes in People with Overweight or Obesity) [1], was the first study to demonstrate that the glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonist, semaglutide, was superior to placebo in reducing the risk of major cardiovascular events in people with existing cardiovascular disease (CVD) and a body mass index of ≥27kg/m² but without diabetes. Despite the promising clinical benefits, the high cost of the medication has raised concerns about its financial viability and accessibility within healthcare systems. Purpose To explore whether use of semaglutide in addition to standard care (background use of lipid lowering, anti-hypertensive and/or anti-platelet therapies) for the secondary prevention of CVD in people with overweight or obesity is cost effective from the Australian healthcare perspective. Methods A Markov model was developed based on the SELECT trial, to evaluate the clinical outcomes and costs of a hypothetical population treated with semaglutide versus placebo over 20 years. With each annual cycle, subjects were at risk of having non-fatal CVD events (MI or stroke) or dying. Treatment efficacy, transition probabilities, and utilities were derived from the SELECT trial and published literature. Costs were obtained from Australian sources. The cost of semaglutide at a dosage of 2.4 mg/week (in line with SELECT) was estimated to be ~A$80 per week or A$4175 per year. The main outcome of interest was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in terms of cost per year of life saved (YoLS) and cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. All outcomes and costs were discounted by 5% per year. Costs are reported in 2023 Australian dollars (A$). Results Over a 20 year time horizon, treatment of 1000 hypothetical subjects with overweight or obesity and existing CVD with semaglutide compared to placebo prevented 126 non-fatal CVD events and 81 deaths, and yielded an additional 0.46 discounted life years and 0.48 discounted QALYs per person. The difference in total discounted costs was A$43,955 per person. This equated to ICERs of A$99,853 per YoLS and A$96,055 per QALY gained. Conclusions Assuming a willingness-to-pay-threshold of A$50,000 per QALY gained, semaglutide would not be considered cost-effective for the secondary prevention of CVD in people with overweight or obesity in Australia at current prices. A price reduction of 52% to less than A$2000 per year would be required for it to be considered a cost-effective treatment strategy in this setting. Given the modest event rates reported in SELECT, cost-effectiveness is likely to improve if use of semaglutide is targeted to higher risk groups. Moreover, SELECT primarily focused on cardiovascular benefits, however data supporting the impact of semaglutide on a number of other weight-related complications are anticipated and will inform a more holistic understanding of its cost effectiveness.

DYNAMO-HIA: A health impact assessment tool fit for quantifying tobacco control policy

Abstract DYNAMO-HIA is a generic, publicly-available and easy to use software tool for health impact assessments of changes in health risk-factors such as obesity, air pollution, processed meat consumption, physical activity, alcohol taxation, or smoking. The tool uses a graphic use interface, does not require programming skills, and has comparatively modest data requirements. Health outcomes that can be investigated are mortality, life expectancy, healthy-life expectancy, disability and prevalence of various chronic disease such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), cancer, or coronary heart diseases. DYNAMO-HIA can in principle be used for any tobacco control policy or ordinance-e.g. price increases or pictorial health warning labels-that target changes in smoking prevalence or smoking initiation/quitting rates. Past applications of DYNAMO-HIA for tobacco control policy included country studies for Belgium, Mongolia, or Korea and several comparative country studies. In this presentation we will give a general overview into the use of DYNAMO-HIA and show-case a recently published study. This study quantified the reduction in COPD burden that would occur in Italy, England and Sweden over 40 years if tobacco prices were increased by 5%, 10% and 20% over current local prices.

Shifting Sands in the Dutch Polder Model : A Study of the Changing Tax and Transfer Pricing Controversy Landscape in the Netherlands

The increasing complexity in the Dutch tax landscape and the widespread availability of taxpayer data has catalyzed an increase in (detailed) tax audits as well as an increase in transfer pricing disputes being brought before Dutch courts. This article outlines relevant observations for the current Dutch transfer pricing controversy environment based on insights gained from recent Dutch case law. In addition, the article provides a framework to mitigate such tax controversy based on lessons learned from the recent Dutch case law.

Faculty Response to Journal Cancellations

This paper reports on a qualitative study that aimed to discover faculty and graduate students’ reaction to journal cancellation projects. In most studies that examine cancellation projects the main aim is to delineate methods used in making decisions about cancellations and the process followed to achieve a successful outcome. Our study looked at these factors but also interviewed faculty to get their response to the cancellations that had occurred at their university and to discover whether there was an alignment between the different ways in which librarians and faculty evaluated journals. We interviewed fourteen librarians and thirteen faculty/graduate students from five medium-sized Canadian universities. Our analysis of the librarian interviews indicated that one of their major concerns when embarking on a cancellation project was the negative reaction they might get from faculty. To counteract this response, librarians made a concerted effort to make them aware of the upcoming cancellations and to provide alternative methods to access journals if their important journals were cut. From the faculty interviews we learned their reactions to these efforts and their knowledge of the journal publishing ecosystem. We also had librarians rank the importance of nine factors used when deciding to buy back journals, and asked faculty to indicate the importance of similar factors in their evaluation of journals. An interesting finding was that although librarians felt that citation metrics were the most important criteria to faculty in evaluating journals, faculty did not consider them as important as other factors. In conclusion we found that there was a stronger alignment between librarians’ and faculty/graduate students’ journal value metrics than librarians previously expected providing opportunities for them to work with faculty to find solutions to the current inequitable journal pricing situation.

Higher cost of gluten-free products compared to gluten-containing equivalents is mainly attributed to staple foods.

The high cost of gluten-free products (GFPs) is being discussed as a potential barrier to adherence to a gluten-free diet, rendering monitoring of their pricing an ongoing demand in a market subject to continuous fluctuations. The current study aimed to assess the current pricing status of GFPs in the Greek retail market, with a focus on differences between staple and non-staple foods. The retail price and packaging weight of all available GFPs and their gluten-containing (GCPs) counterparts of a GFP-shopping basket (formulated based on the results of a preceding online survey) were recorded by visiting one store of the five most popular reported supermarket chains. The food categories were grouped into staple (e.g. breads, pasta and flours) and non-staple (e.g. chips, sweets and sauces) foods. Adjusting for supermarket chain and product type, a quantile mixed regression model was applied to assess the extent to which median product price (per 100 g) differed between GFPs and GCPs. The unique products recorded were 1058 (of which 408 GFPs), with a total of 2165 retail price recordings. While the overall median price/100 g of GFPs was not found to be significantly different from that of GCPs, the median price of staple GFPs was estimated to be higher than staple GCPs (+€1.03 [95% CI: €0.93; €1.13] per 100 g), whilst that of non-staple GFPs was slightly lower (-€0.20 [95% CI: -€0.37; -€0.02] per 100 g). In conclusion, the persisting higher cost of staple GFPs suggests the need for ongoing financial support for people with coeliac disease.

HOLT WINTERS EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING UNTUK MERAMALKAN PRODUK DOMESTIK BRUTO DI INDONESIA

A country's economic growth will be seen as having grown better or worse than in the past by measuring based on the increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The pattern of Indonesian GDP from 2010 to 2022 shows that the data increases from year to year and there are seasonal fluctuations in the quarter. Holt Winters method is part of the Exponential Smoothing method used for forecasting if the data shows a trend and seasonality in the data pattern. The Holt Winters method has two models, namely additive and multiplicative. Holt Winters Additive is used if the data shows trends and seasonal patterns remain constant. Multiplicative Holt Winter is used if the data shows trends and seasonal patterns proportional to the average rate of the seasonal time series. The data used in this study are GDP Based on Current Prices (Nominal GDP) and GDP on the Basis of Constant Prices (Real GDP). Based on the evaluation of model performance using test data forecasting, the Holt Winters Multiplicative model of Nominal GDP with a MAPE value of 4,767535% is the best model because it has an accuracy value of <10%. While the Holt Winters Additive model of Real GDP with a MAPE value of 4,42387% is also the best model because it has an accuracy value of <10%.

The influence of climatic factors on the effect of growth regulators in agrocenoses of spring barley

Relevance. In recent years, under the conditions of climate change, there has been a tendency to reduce the acreage of spring barley, reduce the quantity and quality of grain. From the point of view of ensuring the stability of gross grain harvests and ecology, it is necessary to manage the agrocenosis.Methods. The experiments were conducted in 2021–2024 agricultural years in the conditions of the Azov sea zone of the Rostov region. Objects of research: Leon spring barley variety and growth regulators “Artafit” (0.3 l/ha), “Biodux” (3 ml/ha), “Obereg” (60 ml/ha), “Trainer” (3 l/ha), “Fulvohumate” (0.4 l/ha).Results. The climatic conditions in 2024 were extreme in terms of low rainfall and high amounts of spring temperatures. The year 2023 was the most favorable from this point of view. The yield level correlates with the level of moisture in the spring period, the highest indicators were observed in 2023, and the lowest in 2024. In the current market conditions and annual price increases, unit production costs are increasing. Thus, in 2024, the cultivation of spring barley turned out to be unprofitable. Moreover, the use of biological products did not allow us to gain a plus. In 2022 and 2023, the use of the drug “Trainer” turned out to be unprofitable due to the high cost of the drug. “Biodux” and “Obereg” showed the highest profitability.

Fundamental VS Makro Ekonomi on Stock Price : Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX)

Geopolitical tensions especially those occurring in the Middle East, have significantly impacted the world economy. This impact was also felt by the Indonesian state, which impacted company share prices which experienced a decline due to geopolitical tensions, including the banking sector. Apart from geopolitical tensions, several other factors, such as the company's fundamental factors, also influenced the decline in share prices. Fundamental factors play an important role in determining a company's share price. These factors refer to various elements and variables that reflect the company's financial condition, operations, and prospects. So quite a few investors use fundamental analysis to assess whether current share prices reflect the company's true intrinsic value. This study seeks to reassess the elements affecting banking share prices by incorporating macroeconomic control variables related to these concerns to enhance the robustness of the findings. Utilizing a quantitative approach through panel data regression, the research focuses on banks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange from 2019 to 2023, with a sample of 16 companies meeting the selection criteria. The results reveal that Debt Equity Ratio (DER), Return On Assets (ROA), Return On Equity (ROE), GDP, inflation, and exchange rates collectively have a positive and significant impact on stock prices. However, when analyzed individually, only ROE and exchange rates show a significant effect, while DER, ROA, GDP, and inflation do not.

Toward a Circular Lithium Economy with Electrodialysis: Upcycling Spent Battery Leachates with Selective and Bipolar Ion-Exchange Membranes.

Recycling spent lithium-ion batteries offers a sustainable solution to reduce ecological degradation from mining and mitigate raw material shortages and price volatility. This study investigates using electrodialysis with selective and bipolar ion-exchange membranes to establish a circular economy for lithium-ion batteries. An experimental data set of over 1700 ion concentration measurements across five current densities, two solution compositions, and three pH levels supports the techno-economic analysis. Selective electrodialysis (SED) isolates lithium ions from battery leachates, yielding a 99% Li-pure retentate with 68.8% lithium retention, achieving relative ionic fluxes up to 2.41 for Li+ over transition metal cations and a selectivity of 5.64 over monovalent cations. Bipolar membrane electrodialysis (BMED) converts LiCl into high-purity LiOH and HCl, essential for battery remanufacturing and reducing acid consumption via acid recycling. High current densities reduce ion leakage, achieving lithium leakage as low as 0.03%, though hydronium and hydroxide leakage in BMED remains high at 11-20%. Our analysis projects LiOH production costs between USD 1.1 and 3.6 per kilogram, significantly lower than current prices. Optimal SED and BMED conditions are identified, emphasizing the need to control proton transport in BMED and improve cobalt-lithium separation in SED to enhance cost efficiency.

Dynamics of a Price Adjustment Model with Distributed Delay

This paper deals with the stability and occurrence of Hopf bifurcation of a distributed delay differential cobweb model using the chain trick technique. This is a generalized form of the fixed delay cobweb model to which it is compared using the same parameter values. The results from the delay distribution showed that whenever less weight (γ=0.146) is put on past prices, the current equilibrium price is adjusted upwards while the reverse is observed when a higher weight (γ=0.186) is put on the previous price. It is also observed that if the initial price is set below/above the equilibrium price, the price adjustment either affects the consumers or benefits the suppliers. However, the fixed delay cobweb model does not display the consumers or suppliers benefits of the price dynamics in either direction. These are unique, underlying patterns in price dynamics discovered when using a distributed delay model compared to traditional fixed delay cobweb models. Furthermore, our model challenges the traditional cobweb model’s requirement for divergence, as it is based on the weight assigned to past prices rather than the relationship between the elasticities of supply and demand, which is the determining factor in the classical model. Based on these insights, we recommend that future price adjustment models incorporate distributed delays, as they reveal more intricate price dynamics and provide a more comprehensive understanding of market behavior than fixed delay models.

Analysis of Earnings Quality and Enterprise Valuation of Microsoft by Earnings Quality and Residual Income Model

Artificial intelligence has had a remarkable influence in recent years and has developed many revolutionary solutions in many industries. OpenAI’s ChatGPT is one of the most popular products in this trend. As the largest stockholder of OpenAI, Microsoft has committed itself to integrating artificial intelligence into its primary products, like Microsoft Office and Azure. Although Microsoft experienced a continuous slump in stock in 2022, Microsoft’s current stock price has broken through $400 per share. This paper aims to conduct a financial analysis and forecast Microsoft’s future growth to figure out Microsoft’s intrinsic value. This article uses earnings quality analysis and residual income model to evaluate Microsoft’s financial performance and conduct valuation. Microsoft’s Cash Conversion Cycle has become negative since 2021, so Microsoft can reinvest the cash it receives from sales before using it to pay suppliers. The present value of the continuing value in the Residual Income Model indicates that Microsoft is undervalued compared to the current stock price. Economic conditions and the global supply chain will also influence investors’ expectations, except for quantitative factors. Therefore, Microsoft's stock price fluctuates and does not exceed the forecasted price. This article offers some insights on Microsoft and relevant industry valuation analysis.