Current General Circulation Models Research Articles

Future changes in the mean and variability of extreme rainfall indices over the Guinea coast and role of the Atlantic equatorial mode

Abstract. The occurrence of climate extremes could have dramatic impacts on various sectors such as agriculture, water supply, and energy production. This study aims to understand part of the variability in the extreme rainfall indices over Guinea coast that can be related to the Atlantic equatorial mode (AEM), whose positive phases are associated with an increase in the intensity and frequency of rainfall events. We use six extreme indices computed from six observed rainfall databases and historical and SSP5-8.5 simulations from 24 general circulation models (GCMs) that participate in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to study changes in extreme rainfall events over Guinea coast during July–September. Under present-day conditions, we found that current GCMs clearly overestimate the frequency of wet events and the maximum number of consecutive wet days. The magnitude of the other extreme indices simulated is within the range of the observations which, moreover, present a large spread. Our results confirm the existing studies. However, less attention has been paid to the evaluation of the modelled rainfall extremes associated with the AEM under different climate conditions, while the variability of the AEM is expected to decrease in the future, with a potentially significant impact on the extreme events. Here, we use six (one) observed rainfall (sea surface temperature) data and 24 GCM outputs to investigate the present-day, near-term, mid-term, and long-term future links between the AEM and the extreme rainfall events over the Guinea coast. The biases in the extreme rainfall responses to the AEM are subject to a large spread across the different models and observations. For the long-term future (2080–2099), less frequent and more intense rainfall events are projected. As an illustration, the multimodel ensemble median (EnsMedian) maximum rainfall during 5 consecutive wet days (RX5day) would be 21 % higher than under present-day conditions. Moreover, the variability of the majority of the extreme indices over the Guinea coast is projected to increase (48 % for RX5day in the long-term future). By contrast, the decreased variability of the AEM in a warmer climate leads to a reduced magnitude of the rainfall extreme responses associated with AEM over the Guinea coast. While under present-day conditions the AEM explains 18 % of the RX5day variance in the EnsMedian, this value is reduced to 8 % at the end of 21st century. As a consequence, in absolute, there is a projected increase in the total variability of most of the extreme rainfall indices, but the contribution of the AEM to this variability weakens in a warmer future climate.

Multiresolution Modeling of High-Latitude Ionospheric Electric Field Variability and Impact on Joule Heating Using SuperDARN Data.

The most dynamic electromagnetic coupling between the magnetosphere and ionosphere occurs in the polar upper atmosphere. It is critical to quantify the electromagnetic energy and momentum input associated with this coupling as its impacts on the ionosphere and thermosphere system are global and major, often leading to considerable disturbances in near‐Earth space environments. The current general circulation models of the upper atmosphere exhibit systematic biases that can be attributed to an inadequate representation of the Joule heating rate resulting from unaccounted stochastic fluctuations of electric fields associated with the magnetosphere‐ionosphere coupling. These biases exist regardless of geomagnetic activity levels. To overcome this limitation, a new multiresolution random field modeling approach is developed, and the efficacy of the approach is demonstrated using Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN) data carefully curated for the study during a largely quiet 4‐hour period on February 29, 2012. Regional small‐scale electrostatic fields sampled at different resolutions from a probabilistic distribution of electric field variability conditioned on actual SuperDARN LOS observations exhibit considerably more localized fine‐scale features in comparison to global large‐scale fields modeled using the SuperDARN Assimilative Mapping procedure. The overall hemispherically integrated Joule heating rate is increased by a factor of about 1.5 due to the effect of random regional small‐scale electric fields, which is close to the lower end of arbitrarily adjusted Joule heating multiplicative factor of 1.5 and 2.5 typically used in upper atmosphere general circulation models. The study represents an important step toward a data‐driven ensemble modeling of magnetosphere‐ionosphere‐atmosphere coupling processes.

Representation of the boreal summer tropical Atlantic–western North Pacific teleconnection in AGCMs: comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6

Previous studies have revealed that warm (cold) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the northern tropical Atlantic (NTA) can enhance (weaken) the anomalous low-level anticyclone over the western North Pacific (WNP) during boreal summer. This study assesses the ability of current atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) to simulate such an NTA–WNP connection by using Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project experiments from 23 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and 35 CMIP6 climate models. It is shown that both the CMIP5 and CMIP6 multimodel ensemble (MME) averages and the majority of the individual AGCMs can reasonably reproduce the observed pattern of the NTA-related anomalous anticyclone over the WNP during boreal summer. Overall, the performance of the CMIP6 AGCMs in representing the NTA–WNP connection is similar to that of the CMIP5 AGCMs, except that the former tends to have a smaller spread than the latter among models. Additionally, both the CMIP5 and CMIP6 MME averages as well as the individual models can reasonably represent the mechanism responsible for the boreal summer NTA–WNP connection, which involves a zonally westward-extending overturning circulation over the Pacific–Atlantic Oceans. Furthermore, the intensity of the NTA-related WNP anomalous anticyclone is positively correlated with that of the WNP local climatological convection activity for both the CMIP5 and CMIP6 AGCMs, implying that better representation of the WNP climatological convection activity may be crucial for improving the skill of AGCMs to simulate the boreal summer NTA–WNP connection. However, model bias in the simulation of climatological convection activity over the WNP remains large for the current CMIP6 AGCMs, although the bias is reduced over most of the tropical and subtropical Pacific–Atlantic regions compared to that for the CMIP5 AGCMs during boreal summer.

Potential faster Arctic sea ice retreat triggered by snowflakes' greenhouse effect

Abstract. Recent Arctic sea ice retreat has been quicker than in most general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Internal variability may have amplified the observed retreat in recent years, but reliable attribution and projection requires accurate representation of relevant physics. Most current GCMs do not fully represent falling ice radiative effects (FIREs), and here we show that the small set of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models that include FIREs tend to show faster observed retreat. We investigate this using controlled simulations with the CESM1-CAM5 model. Under 1pctCO2 simulations, including FIREs results in the first occurrence of an “ice-free” Arctic (monthly mean extent <1×106 km2) at 550 ppm CO2, compared with 680 ppm otherwise. Over 60–90∘ N oceans, snowflakes reduce downward surface shortwave radiation and increase downward surface longwave radiation, improving agreement with the satellite-based CERES EBAF-Surface dataset. We propose that snowflakes' equivalent greenhouse effect reduces the mean sea ice thickness, resulting in a thinner pack whose retreat is more easily triggered by global warming. This is supported by the CESM1-CAM5 surface fluxes and a reduced initial thickness in perennial sea ice regions by approximately 0.3 m when FIREs are included. This explanation does not apply across the CMIP5 ensemble in which inter-model variation in the simulation of other processes likely dominates. Regardless, we show that FIRE can substantially change Arctic sea ice projections and propose that better including falling ice radiative effects in models is a high priority.

Down scaling of climate change scenarii to river basin level: A transdisciplinary methodology applied to Evrotas river basin, Greece

The Mediterranean region is anticipated to be (or, already is) one of the hot spots for climate change, where freshwater ecosystems are under threat from the effects of multiple stressors. Climate change is impacting natural resources and on the functioning of Ecosystem Services. The challenges about modelling climate change impact on water cycle in general and specifically on socio-economic dynamics of the society leads to an exponential amount of results that restrain interpretation and added value of forecasting at local level. One of the main challenges when dealing with climate change projections is the quantification of uncertainties. Modellers might have limited information or understanding from local river catchment management practices and from other disciplines with relevant insights on socio-economic and environmental complex relationship between biosphere and human based activities. Current General Circulation Models cannot fulfil the requirements of high spatial detail required for water management policy. This article reports an innovative transdisciplinary methodology to down scale Climate Change scenarii to river basin level with a special focus on the development of climate change narrative under SSP5-RCP8.5 combination called Myopic scenario and SSP1-RCP4.5 combination called Sustainable scenario. Local Stakeholder participative workshop in the Evrotas river basin provide perception of expected changes on water demand under to two developed scenario narratives.

Revisiting the CMIP5 Thermocline in the Equatorial Pacific and Atlantic Oceans

AbstractThe thermocline is defined as the ocean layer for which the vertical thermal gradient is maximum. In the equatorial ocean, observations led to the use of the 20 °C isotherm depth (z20) as an estimate of the thermocline. This study compares z20 against the physical thermocline in the equatorial Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, using Simple Ocean Data Assimilation reanalysis and fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project preindustrial control simulations. Our results show that z20 is systematically deeper and flatter than the thermocline and does not respond correctly to surface wind stress variations. It is also shown that the annual cycle of z20 is much weaker than that of the physical thermocline. This happens in both equatorial basins and indicates that z20 does not react to the same mechanisms as the thermocline. This could have important consequences in the assessment of air‐sea coupling in current general circulation models and bias reduction strategies.

Lightning Prediction for Australia Using Multivariate Analyses of Large-Scale Atmospheric Variables

AbstractLightning is a natural hazard that can lead to the ignition of wildfires, disruption and damage to power and telecommunication infrastructures, human and livestock injuries and fatalities, and disruption to airport activities. This paper examines the ability of six statistical and machine-learning classification techniques to distinguish between nonlightning and lightning days at the coarse spatial and temporal scales of current general circulation models and reanalyses. The classification techniques considered were 1) a combination of principal component analysis and logistic regression, 2) classification and regression trees, 3) random forests, 4) linear discriminant analysis, 5) quadratic discriminant analysis, and 6) logistic regression. Lightning-flash counts at six locations across Australia for 2004–13 were used, together with atmospheric variables from the ERA-Interim dataset. Tenfold cross validation was used to evaluate classification performance. It was found that logistic regression was superior to the other classifiers considered and that its prediction skill is much better than using climatological values. The sets of atmospheric variables included in the final logistic-regression models were primarily composed of spatial mean measures of instability and lifting potential, along with atmospheric water content. The memberships of these sets varied among climatic zones.

The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Diagnostic Codes Catalogue – metrics, diagnostics and methodologies to evaluate, understand and improve the representation of clouds and cloud feedbacks in climate models

Abstract. The CFMIP Diagnostic Codes Catalogue assembles cloud metrics, diagnostics and methodologies, together with programs to diagnose them from general circulation model (GCM) outputs written by various members of the CFMIP community. This aims to facilitate use of the diagnostics by the wider community studying climate and climate change. This paper describes the diagnostics and metrics which are currently in the catalogue, together with examples of their application to model evaluation studies and a summary of some of the insights these diagnostics have provided into the main shortcomings in current GCMs. Analysis of outputs from CFMIP and CMIP6 experiments will also be facilitated by the sharing of diagnostic codes via this catalogue.Any code which implements diagnostics relevant to analysing clouds – including cloud–circulation interactions and the contribution of clouds to estimates of climate sensitivity in models – and which is documented in peer-reviewed studies, can be included in the catalogue. We very much welcome additional contributions to further support community analysis of CMIP6 outputs.

A Bayesian hierarchical approach for spatial analysis of climate model bias in multi-model ensembles

Coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models are key tools to investigate climate dynamics and the climatic response to external forcings, to predict climate evolution and to generate future climate projections. Current general circulation models are, however, undisputedly affected by substantial systematic errors in their outputs compared to observations. The assessment of these so-called biases, both individually and collectively, is crucial for the models’ evaluation prior to their predictive use. We present a Bayesian hierarchical model for a unified assessment of spatially referenced climate model biases in a multi-model framework. A key feature of our approach is that the model quantifies an overall common bias that is obtained by synthesizing bias across the different climate models in the ensemble, further determining the contribution of each model to the overall bias. Moreover, we determine model-specific individual bias components by characterizing them as non-stationary spatial fields. The approach is illustrated based on the case of near-surface air temperature bias in the tropical Atlantic and bordering regions from a multi-model ensemble of historical simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The results demonstrate the improved quantification of the bias and interpretative advantages allowed by the posterior distributions derived from the proposed Bayesian hierarchical framework, whose generality favors its broader application within climate model assessment.

Slow Preconditioning for the Abrupt Convective Jump over the Northwest Pacific during Summer

Abstract The rapid intensification of convective activity in mid-July over the northwest Pacific marks the final stage of the Asian summer monsoon, accompanied by major shifts in regional rainfall and circulation patterns. An entraining plume model is used to investigate the physical processes underlying the abrupt convective jump. Despite little change in sea surface temperature (SST), gradual lower-troposphere mixing leads to a threshold transition in the model as follows. Before mid-July, although SST is already high (29°C), the convective plume is inhibited by the capping inversion above the trade cumulus boundary layer. As the lower troposphere is gradually mixed, the boundary layer top rises with reduced atmospheric stability and increased humidity in the lower troposphere. These factors weaken the inhibition effect of the inversion on the entraining plume. As soon as the plume is able to overcome the inversion barrier, it can rise all the way to the upper troposphere. This marks an abrupt threshold transition to a deep convection regime with heavy rainfall. The convective available potential energy (CAPE) of the entraining plume is found to be a better indicator of the rainfall intensity compared to the conventional undiluted CAPE. The latter fails to capture the onset by neglecting interactions between convective clouds and the environment. Current general circulation models (GCMs) fail to capture the abrupt convective jump and instead simulate a rather smooth seasonal evolution of rainfall. Compared to observations, GCMs simulate a higher trade cumulus top with excessive mixing in the lower troposphere. Convection is no longer inhibited by the inversion barrier, and rainfall simply follows the smooth variation of SST.

An Observationally Based Global Band-by-Band Surface Emissivity Dataset for Climate and Weather Simulations

Abstract While current atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) still treat the surface as a blackbody in their longwave radiation scheme, recent studies suggest the need for taking realistic surface spectral emissivity into account. There have been few measurements available for the surface emissivity in the far IR (<650 cm−1). Based on first-principle calculation, the authors compute the spectral emissivity over the entire longwave spectrum for a variety of surface types. MODIS-retrieved mid-IR surface emissivity at 0.05° × 0.05° spatial resolution is then regressed against the calculated spectral emissivity to determine the surface type for each grid. The derived spectral emissivity data are then spatially averaged onto 0.5° × 0.5° grids and spectrally integrated onto the bandwidths used by the RRTMG_LW—a longwave radiation scheme widely used in current climate and numerical weather models. The band-by-band surface emissivity dataset is then compared with retrieved surface spectral emissivities from Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) measurements. The comparison shows favorable agreement between two datasets in all the bands covered by the IASI measurements. The authors further use the dataset in conjunction with ERA-Interim to evaluate its impact on the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget. Depending on the blackbody surface assumptions used in the original calculation, the globally averaged difference caused by the inclusion of realistic surface emissivity ranges from −1.2 to −1.5 W m−2 for clear-sky OLR and from −0.67 to −0.94 W m−2 for all-sky OLR. Moreover, the difference is not spatially uniform and has a distinct spatial pattern.

On the Abruptness of Bølling–Allerød Warming

Abstract Previous observations and simulations suggest that an approximate 3°–5°C warming occurred at intermediate depths in the North Atlantic over several millennia during Heinrich stadial 1 (HS1), which induces warm salty water (WSW) lying beneath surface cold freshwater. This arrangement eventually generates ocean convective available potential energy (OCAPE), the maximum potential energy releasable by adiabatic vertical parcel rearrangements in an ocean column. The authors find that basin-scale OCAPE starts to appear in the North Atlantic (~67.5°–73.5°N) and builds up over decades at the end of HS1 with a magnitude of about 0.05 J kg−1. OCAPE provides a key kinetic energy source for thermobaric cabbeling convection (TCC). Using a high-resolution TCC-resolved regional model, it is found that this decadal-scale accumulation of OCAPE ultimately overshoots its intrinsic threshold and is released abruptly (~1 month) into kinetic energy of TCC, with further intensification from cabbeling. TCC has convective plumes with approximately 0.2–1-km horizontal scales and large vertical displacements (~1 km), which make TCC difficult to be resolved or parameterized by current general circulation models. The simulation herein indicates that these local TCC events are spread quickly throughout the OCAPE-contained basin by internal wave perturbations. Their convective plumes have large vertical velocities (~8–15 cm s−1) and bring the WSW to the surface, causing an approximate 2°C sea surface warming for the whole basin (~700 km) within a month. This exposes a huge heat reservoir to the atmosphere, which helps to explain the abrupt Bølling–Allerød warming.

The Estimation of Convective Mass Flux from Radar Reflectivities

AbstractCumulus parameterizations in general circulation models (GCMs) frequently apply mass-flux schemes in their description of tropical convection. Mass flux constitutes the product of the fractional area covered by cumulus clouds in a model grid box and the vertical velocity within the cumulus clouds. The cumulus area fraction profiles can be derived from precipitating radar reflectivity volumes. However, the vertical velocities are difficult to observe, making the evaluation of mass-flux schemes difficult. In this paper, the authors develop and evaluate a parameterization of vertical velocity in convective (cumulus) clouds using only radar reflectivities collected by a C-band polarimetric research radar (CPOL), operating at Darwin, Australia. The parameterization is trained using vertical velocity retrievals from a dual-frequency wind profiler pair located within the field of view of CPOL. The parametric model uses two inputs derived from CPOL reflectivities: the 0-dBZ echo-top height (0-dBZ ETH) and a height-weighted column reflectivity index (ZHWT). The 0-dBZ ETH determines the shape of the vertical velocity profile, while ZHWT determines its strength. The evaluation of these parameterized vertical velocities using (i) the training dataset, (ii) an independent wind-profiler-based dataset, and (iii) 1 month of dual-Doppler vertical velocity retrievals indicates that the statistical representation of vertical velocity is reasonably accurate up to the 75th percentile. However, the parametric model underestimates the extreme velocities. The method allows for the derivation of cumulus mass flux and its variability on current GCM scales based only on reflectivities from precipitating radar, which could be valuable to modelers.

Compensation between Resolved and Unresolved Wave Drag in the Stratospheric Final Warmings of the Southern Hemisphere

Abstract The role of planetary wave drag and gravity wave drag in the breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex and its associated final warming in the Southern Hemisphere is examined using reanalyses from MERRA and a middle-atmosphere dynamical model. The focus of this work is on identifying the causes of the delay in the final breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex found in current general circulation models. Sensitivity experiments were conducted by changing the launched momentum flux in the gravity wave drag parameterization. Increasing the launched momentum flux produces a delay of the final warming date with respect to the control integration of more than 2 weeks. The sensitivity experiments show significant interactions between planetary waves and unresolved gravity waves. The increase of gravity wave drag in the model is compensated by a strong decrease of Eliassen–Palm flux divergence (i.e., planetary wave drag). This concomitant decrease of planetary wave drag is at least partially responsible for the delay of the final warming in the model. Experiments that change the resolved planetary wave activity entering the stratosphere through artificially changing the bottom boundary flux of the model also show an interaction mechanism. Gravity wave drag responds via critical-level filtering to planetary wave drag perturbations by partially compensating them. Therefore, there is a feedback cycle that leads to a partial compensation between gravity wave and planetary wave drag.

Daytime plasma drifts in the equatorial lower ionosphere

AbstractWe have used extensive radar measurements from the Jicamarca Observatory during low solar flux periods to study the quiet time variability and altitudinal dependence of equatorial daytime vertical and zonal plasma drifts. The daytime vertical drifts are upward and have largest values during September–October. The day‐to‐day variability of these drifts does not change with height between 150 and 600 km, but the bimonthly variability is much larger in the F region than below about 200 km. These drifts vary linearly with height generally increasing in the morning and decreasing in the afternoon. The zonal drifts are westward during the day and have largest values during July–October. The 150 km region zonal drifts have much larger day‐to‐day, but much smaller bimonthly variability than the F region drifts. The daytime zonal drifts strongly increase with height up to about 300 km from March through October, and more weakly at higher altitudes. The December solstice zonal drifts have generally weaker altitudinal dependence, except perhaps below 200 km. Current theoretical and general circulation models do not reproduce the observed altitudinal variation of the daytime equatorial zonal drifts.

Cloud-radiation feedback and atmosphere-ocean coupling in a stochastic multicloud model

Despite recent advances in supercomputing, current general circulation models (GCMs) have significant problems in representing the variability associated with organized tropical convection. Furthermore, due to high sensitivity of the simulations to the cloud radiation feedback, the tropical convection remains a major source of uncertainty in long-term weather and climate forecasts. In a series of recent studies, it has been shown, in paradigm two-baroclinic-mode systems and in aquaplanet GCMs, that a stochastic multicloud convective parameterization based on three cloud types (congestus, deep and stratiform) can be used to improve the variability and the dynamical structure of tropical convection, including intermittent coherent structures such as synoptic and mesoscale convective systems. Here, the stochastic multicloud model is modified with a parameterized cloud radiation feedback mechanism and atmosphere-ocean coupling. The radiative convective feedback mechanism is shown to increase the mean and variability of the Walker circulation. The corresponding intensification of the circulation is associated with propagating synoptic scale systems originating inside of the enhanced sea surface temperature area. In column simulations, the atmosphere ocean coupling introduces pronounced low frequency convective features on the time scale associated with the depth of the mixed ocean layer. However, in the presence of the gravity wave mixing of spatially extended simulations, these features are not as prominent. This highlights the deficiency of the column model approach at predicting the behavior of multiscale spatially extended systems. Overall, the study develops a systematic framework for incorporating parameterized radiative cloud feedback and ocean coupling which may be used to improve representation of intraseasonal and seasonal variability in GCMs.

North Atlantic Storm-Track Sensitivity to Warming Increases with Model Resolution

Abstract Mesoscale condensational heating can increase the sensitivity of modeled extratropical cyclogenesis to horizontal resolution. Here a pseudo global warming experiment is presented to investigate how this heating-enhanced sensitivity to resolution changes in a warmer and thus moister atmosphere. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with 120- and 20-km grid spacing is used to simulate current and future climates. It is found that the North Atlantic storm-track response to global warming is amplified at the higher model resolution. The most dramatic changes occur over the northeastern Atlantic, where resolution typical of current general circulation models (GCMs) results in a smaller global warming response in comparison with that in the 20-km simulations. These results suggest that caution is warranted when interpreting projections from coarse-resolution GCMs of future cyclone activity over the northeastern Atlantic.

Cooling of the Martian thermosphere by CO2radiation and gravity waves: An intercomparison study with two general circulation models

Observations show that the lower thermosphere of Mars (∼100–140 km) is up to 40 K colder than the current general circulation models (GCMs) can reproduce. Possible candidates for physical processes missing in the models are larger abundances of atomic oxygen facilitating stronger CO2 radiative cooling and thermal effects of gravity waves. Using two state-of-the-art Martian GCMs, the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique and Max Planck Institute models that self-consistently cover the atmosphere from the surface to the thermosphere, these physical mechanisms are investigated. Simulations demonstrate that the CO2 radiative cooling with a sufficiently large atomic oxygen abundance and the gravity wave-induced cooling can alone result in up to 40 K colder temperature in the lower thermosphere. Accounting for both mechanisms produce stronger cooling at high latitudes. However, radiative cooling effects peak above the mesopause, while gravity wave cooling rates continuously increase with height. Although both mechanisms act simultaneously, these peculiarities could help to further quantify their relative contributions from future observations.

Sensitivity of abyssal water masses to overflow parameterisations

Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) and North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) control the abyssal limb of the global overturning circulation and play a major role in oceanic heat uptake and carbon storage. However, current general circulation models are unable to resolve the observed AABW and NADW formation and transport processes. One key process, that of overflows, motivates the application of overflow parameterisations. We present a sensitivity study of both AABW and NADW properties to three current parameterisations using a z∗-coordinate ocean-sea ice model within a realistic-topography sector of the Atlantic Ocean.Overflow parameterisations that affect only tracer equations are compared to a fully dynamical Lagrangian point particle method. An overflow parameterisation involving partial convective mixing of tracers is most efficient at transporting dense NADW water downslope. This parameterisation leads to a maximum mean increase in density in the north of 0.027kgm−3 and a decrease in age of 525years (53%). The relative change in density and age in the south is less than 30% of that in the north for all overflow parameterisations. The reduced response in the south may result from the differing dense water formation and overflow characteristics of AABW compared to NADW. Alternative approaches may be necessary to improve AABW representation in z∗-coordinate ocean climate models.

Subsidence-induced methane clouds in Titan’s winter polar stratosphere and upper troposphere

Titan’s atmospheric methane most likely originates from lakes at the surface and subsurface reservoirs. Accordingly, it has been commonly assumed that Titan’s tropopause region, where the vertical temperature profile is a minimum, acts as a cold trap for convecting methane, leading to the expectation that the formation of methane clouds in Titan’s stratosphere would be rare. The additional assumption that Titan’s tropopause temperatures are independent of latitude is also required. However, Cassini Composite InfraRed Spectrometer (CIRS) and Radio Science Subsystem (RSS) data sets reveal colder temperatures in Titan’s tropopause region near the winter pole than those at low latitudes and in the summer hemisphere. This, combined with the presence of a cross-equatorial meridional circulation with winter polar subsidence, as suggested by current general circulation models, implies the inevitable formation of Subsidence-Induced Methane Clouds (SIMCs) over Titan’s winter pole. We verified this by retrieving the stratospheric methane mole fraction at 70°N from the strength of the far infrared methane pure rotation lines observed by CIRS and by assuming the RSS-derived thermal profile at 74.1°N. Our retrieved methane mole fraction of 1.50±0.15% allows for methane to condense and form SIMCs at altitudes between ∼48 and ∼20km. Radiative transfer analyses of a color composite image obtained by the Cassini Visible and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS) during northern winter appear to corroborate the existence of these clouds.