Current Estimates Research Articles

Field Observations of Surfzone Vorticity

AbstractIn the surfzone, breaking‐wave generated eddies and vortices transport material along the coast and offshore to the continental shelf, providing a pathway from land to the ocean. Here, surfzone vorticity is investigated with unique field observations obtained during a wide range of wave and bathymetric conditions on an Atlantic Ocean beach. Small spatial‐scale [O(10 m)] vorticity estimated with a 5 m diameter ring of 14 current meters deployed in ∼2 m water depth increased as the directional spread of the wave field increased. Large spatial‐scale [O(100 m)] vorticity calculated from remote sensing estimates of currents across the surfzone along 200 m of the shoreline increased as alongshore bathymetric variability (channels, bars, bumps, holes) increased. For all bathymetric conditions, large‐scale vorticity in the inner surfzone was more energetic than in the outer surfzone.

Stochastic‐gradient‐based control algorithms for power quality enhancement in solar photovoltaic interfaced three‐phase distribution system

AbstractHere, stochastic‐gradient‐based adaptive control algorithms have been discussed and employed for power quality enhancement in a Photovoltaics (PV) integrated distribution system. Least mean square (LMS), least mean fourth (LMF), sign‐error LMS, and ‐normalised LMS (‐NLMS) have been implemented as control algorithms for the estimation of fundamental load current. The performances of these adaptive algorithms are compared under steady‐state and dynamic conditions under the non‐linear load conditions in a closed‐loop three‐phase system. The main aim of implementing these algorithms is reactive power compensation, power quality enhancement, and load balancing in a single‐stage three‐phase grid‐tied PV system. The hysteresis current control (HCC) technique is used to generate switching pulses for the three‐phase Distribution Static Power Compensator (DSTATCOM). An MPPT is also employed to ensure maximum power delivery from the solar PV array. PV integrated three‐phase single‐stage distribution system with adaptive control algorithms is implemented in MATLAB/Simulink environment as well as in experimental environment to achieve the goals per standard IEEE‐519.

Conservation of the Charge in Signal from Drift Tube Ion Mobility Spectrometers.

Quantitative information obtained from drift tube detectors used in ion mobility spectrometry is contained in the area of peaks forming the drift time spectrum. The area of all peaks corresponds to the total charge of ions entering the drift section of the spectrometer. It was found that this charge is not conserved when the ion composition changes. This work is devoted to studying the causes of this phenomenon. Experimental research consisted of recording drift time spectra for 2-pentanone and n-heptanone, at various analyte concentrations and different opening times of the shutter grid. Measurements of the total ion current were also performed in static mode with an open grid. The research results indicated that the reasons for the lack of ion charge conservation in the drift time spectrum are ion recombination, mutual repulsion, and mobility-dependent transmission of ions through the shutter grid. The explanation of the relationships obtained experimentally was based on a simple theoretical model, which considered the phenomenon of ion transport along the reaction section and the penetration of ions through the shutter. The developed model provides a good description of the measurement results and allows the estimation of ion currents and ion concentrations in the reaction section upstream of the grid. This information is important for proper quantitative analysis as well as when the ion mobility spectrometer is used in quantitative studies of chemical ionization processes.

Viral hepatitis in persons living with HIV in the post-COVID era.

Coinfection with hepatitis viruses A to E is frequent in persons living with HIV (PLWH) and causes significant morbidity and mortality. Oro-fecal transmissible hepatitis A and E mostly produce acute self-limited episodes in poor income regions and in non-vaccinated travelers. In high-income countries, outbreaks of hepatitis A occur in men having sex with men (MSM) and chronic hepatitis E is occasionally reported among PLWH with severe immunodeficiency. Chronic hepatitis B, C, and D are frequent in PLWH in highly endemic regions and globally in persons who inject drugs (PWID) and MSM. Progression to liver cirrhosis and development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is major clinical complications in coinfected patients. Current estimates for PLWH are of 38 million worldwide. Roughly 12% have chronic viral hepatitis (5 million). Coinfection figures are of 5-10% for HBV (2-4 million), 4% for HCV (1.5 million), and 15% of HBsAg+ for HDV (0.5 million). Oral direct-acting antivirals (DAA) cure almost all treated patients with hepatitis C. However, given that there is no protective HCV immunity, PLWH with high-risk behaviors may experience HCV reinfection episodes. Tenofovir is the drug of choice in PLWH with chronic hepatitis B, given its dual effect on HIV and HBV. Lifelong oral tenofovir suppresses HBV replication and ameliorate liver damage. However, the risk of HCC persists even in the absence of cirrhosis. Finally, HDV causes the worst of viral hepatitis with faster progression to cirrhosis and HCC. An entry inhibitor, bulevirtide, has recently been approved and another drug, lonafarnib, is completing Phase 3 trials. Combination antiviral therapy for hepatitis D could improve dramatically the poor prognosis of HIV-HDV coinfected patients. The resumption of good medical practices in PLWH after the big disruption caused by COVID-19 will reduce the burden of viral hepatitis coinfections. Renewed efforts on HAV and HBV vaccination of susceptible individuals and earlier and wider prescription of antiviral therapy for HBV, HCV, and/or HDV coinfection should be prioritized in PLWH. The benefits of innovative strategies for viral hepatitis, including pre-exposure prophylaxis or use of long-acting antivirals, warrant further consideration in PLWH.

Deep Learning Improves Global Satellite Observations of Ocean Eddy Dynamics

AbstractOcean eddies affect large‐scale circulation and induce a kinetic energy cascade through their non‐linear interactions. However, since global observations of eddy dynamics come from satellite altimetry maps that smooth eddies and distort their geometry, the strength of this cascade is underestimated. Here, we use deep learning to improve observational estimates of global surface geostrophic currents and explore the implications for the cascade. By synthesizing multi‐modal satellite observations of sea surface height (SSH) and temperature, we achieve up to a 30% improvement in spatial resolution over the community‐standard SSH product. This reveals numerous strongly interacting eddies that were previously obscured by smoothing. In many regions, these newly resolved eddies lead to nearly an order‐of‐magnitude increase in the upscale kinetic energy cascade that peaks in spring and is strong enough to drive the seasonality of large mesoscale eddies. Our study suggests that deep learning can be a powerful paradigm for satellite oceanography.

Voluntary co-contraction of ankle muscles alters motor unit discharge characteristics and reduces estimates of persistent inward currents.

Motoneuronal persistent inward currents (PICs) are facilitated by neuromodulatory inputs but are highly sensitive to local inhibitory circuits. Estimates of PICs are reduced by group Ia reciprocal inhibition, and increased with the diffuse actions of neuromodulators released during remote muscle contraction. However, it remains unknown how motoneurons function in the presence of simultaneous excitatory and inhibitory commands. To probe this topic, we investigated motor unit discharge patterns and estimated PICs during voluntary co-contraction of ankle muscles, which simultaneously demands the contraction of agonist-antagonist pairs. Twenty participants performed triangular ramps of both co-contraction (simultaneous dorsiflexion and plantar flexion) and isometric dorsiflexion to a peak of 30% of their maximum muscle activity from a maximal voluntary contraction. Motor unit spike trains were decomposed from high-density surface EMG activity recorded from tibialis anterior using blind source separation algorithms. Voluntary co-contraction altered motor unit discharge rate characteristics. Discharge rate at recruitment and peak discharge rate were modestly reduced (∼6% change; P<0.001; d=0.22) and increased (∼2% change; P=0.001, d=-0.19), respectively, in the entire dataset but no changes were observed when motor units were tracked across conditions. The largest effects during co-contraction were that estimates of PICs (ΔF) were reduced by ∼20% (4.47 vs. 5.57 pulses per second during isometric dorsiflexion; P<0.001, d=0.641). These findings suggest that, during voluntary co-contraction, the inhibitory input from the antagonist muscle overcomes the additional excitatory and neuromodulatory drive that may occur due to the co-contraction of the antagonist muscle, which constrains PIC behaviour. KEY POINTS: Voluntary co-contraction is a unique motor behaviour that concurrently provides excitatory and inhibitory synaptic input to motoneurons. Co-contraction of agonist-antagonist pairs alters agonist motor unit discharge characteristics, consistent with reductions in persistent inward current magnitude.

Optimizing building stone-cutting in quarries: a study on estimation of maximum electric current using ABC and SC algorithms

Optimizing building stone-cutting in quarries: a study on estimation of maximum electric current using ABC and SC algorithms

Estimates of Baroclinic Tidal Sea Level and Currents from Lagrangian Drifters and Satellite Altimetry

Abstract Internal waves generated by the interaction of the surface tides with topography are known to propagate long distances and lead to observable effects such as sea level variability, ocean currents, and mixing. In an effort to describe and predict these waves, the present work is concerned with using geographically distributed data from satellite altimeters and drifting buoys to estimate and map the baroclinic sea level associated with the M2, S2, N2, K1, and O1 tides. A new mapping methodology is developed, based on a mixed L1/L2-norm optimization, and compared with previously developed methods for tidal estimation from altimeter data. The altimeter and drifter data are considered separately in their roles for estimating tides and for cross-validating estimates obtained with independent data. Estimates obtained from altimetry and drifter data are found to agree remarkably well in regions where the drifter trajectories are spatially dense; however, heterogeneity of the drifter trajectories is a disadvantage when they are considered alone for tidal estimation. When the different data types are combined by using geodetic mission altimetry to cross validate estimates obtained with either exact-repeat altimetry or drifter data, and subsequently averaging the latter estimates, the estimates significantly improve on the previously published HRET8.1 model, as measured by their utility for predicting sea level and surface currents in the open ocean. The methodology has been applied to estimate the annual modulations of M2, which are found to have much smaller amplitudes compared to those reported in HRET8.1, and suggest that the latter estimates of these tides were not reliable. Significance Statement The mechanical and thermodynamic forcing of the ocean occurs primarily at very large scales associated with the gravitational perturbations of the sun and moon (tides), atmospheric wind stress, and solar insolation, but the frictional forces within the ocean act on very small scales. This research addresses the question of how the large-scale tidal forcing is transformed into the smaller-scale motion capable of being influenced by friction. The results show where internal waves are generated and how they transport energy across ocean basins to eventually be dissipated by friction. The results are useful to scientists interested in mapping the flows of mechanical energy in the ocean and predicting their influences on marine life, ocean temperature, and ocean currents.

Horizontal Scales of Small‐ and Meso‐Scale Field‐Aligned Current Structures at Middle and Low Latitudes

AbstractBy utilizing the close orbital separation between Swarm A and C during the Counter Rotation Orbit phase, we check the agreement and stationarity between the FAC‐associated magnetic signatures at the two spacecraft through cross‐correlation analysis. When the agreement and stationarity are passed, the magnetic signature is considered suitable for small and meso‐scale Field‐aligned currents (FAC) estimates with dual‐spacecraft technique. It is found that at low and middle latitudes the dayside wave structure with apparent periods of about 10–60s can be observed around 90% of the time during all seasons. From those 90% can be identified as quasi‐static current structures. On the nightside, the shorter period signatures dominate the apparent period spectrum. At about 30% of the time structures with 1–7s periods are observed. For the longer period signals the proportion is reduced greatly. About 80% of these signatures with periods longer than 3s are identified as quasi‐static current structures. By taking advantage of the constantly changing longitudinal orbit separation during the considered time intervals, we can determine the mean separation at which the correlation breaks down. This provides FAC scale sizes in east‐west direction separately for FACs of various latitudinal wavelengths. The result shows that typical east‐west scale sizes of FAC structures with latitudinal wavelength of 10–400 km range from 10 to 60 km, respectively. FAC‐related structures on the nightside have been associated with medium‐scale traveling ionospheric disturbances and structures on the dayside primarily with FACs driven by atmospheric gravity waves.

A new least squares error based method for accurate phasor estimation of fault currents in series-compensated transmission lines

Phasor estimation of the fundamental component of the fault current is of great importance for the fault location unit in distance relays. In series-compensated transmission lines, the transient component of the fault current may appear in the complicated wave shape of an exponential-sinusoidal function. Thus, phasor estimation is a major challenge owing to the fact that more unknown parameters should be found, especially during off-nominal frequency conditions. Therefore, in this paper, a new method is put forward, on the strength of the least squares error (LSE), in order to accurately estimate the fundamental component phasor of the fault current in a series-compensated transmission line for off-nominal frequency conditions. The performance of the established method is also investigated through extensive simulation studies, taking care of different fundamental components, harmonic contents, and transient components. Moreover, the performance of the proposed method is evaluated for off-nominal frequencies. The results obtained in this study demonstrate that the mean absolute error of the estimated amplitude and phase for the fundamental component is less than 1% and 1°, respectively. Furthermore, the accuracy of the proposed method is not affected by the noise up to a signal-to-noise ratio of 30 dB. Thus, the established method is capable to effectively be employed for the phasor estimation in fault location applications.

Prevalence and correlates of alcohol use among the elderly in the Eastern Caribbean Health Outcomes Research Network (ECHORN) cohort study

BackgroundAlcohol use is pervasive in the Caribbean; however, the prevalence and correlates of alcohol use and drinking problems in the elderly have not been extensively studied. MethodsData were obtained from the Eastern Caribbean Health Outcomes Research Network (ECHORN) Cohort Study, a cohort study of Caribbean people from Puerto Rico, Barbados, Trinidad, and Tobago, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, collected between 2013 and 2018 (baseline study sample, ages 60+, n = 811). Descriptive statistics were used to compare the differences in drinking status (current vs. former vs. never), alcohol problems (Cut-down, Annoyed, Guilty, and Eye-opener (CAGE) scale score ≥2 vs. <2), and binge drinking days (0 days vs. 1–2 days vs. ≥3 days) across sample characteristics. Logistic regression analyses estimated the association of these alcohol measures with sociodemographic (e.g., sex), psychological (depression), and cultural (e.g., religion) correlates. ResultsThirty-six percent were 70 + years of age, 64 % were female, and 41 % had less than a high school education. Alcohol problems (≥2 CAGE score) was 21 %. Binge drinking ≥3 days was 30.6 %. Never attending religious services (vs. attending once a week or more) was associated with almost three times higher odds of alcohol problems (adjusted Odds Ratio: OR = 2.88, 95 % CI = 1.02, 8.15) four times higher odds of increasing binge drinking days (aOR = 4.04, 95 % CI = 1.11, 14.96). College education was protective against both the outcomes. ConclusionWe provide current estimates of alcohol problems among elderly Eastern Caribbean people. Among the sociodemographic, psychological, and cultural correlates examined, religious attendance was significant. Replicate longitudinal studies using DSM-5 alcohol dependence are recommended.

Study of the Accuracy of the Ronen Method at Material Interfaces

The Ronen Method (RM) is a nonlinear iterative scheme that demands successive resolutions of the diffusion equation, where local diffusion constants are modified to reproduce more accurate estimates of the neutron currents by a transport operator. The methodology is currently formulated using the formalism of the collision probability method for evaluation of the current. The RM was recently tested on a complete suite of one-dimensional (1-D) multigroup benchmark problems. Small differences in the flux (less than 2%) were reported at material interfaces and close to the vacuum boundary with respect to the reference solution from transport. This work investigates first a possible numerical equivalence between transport and diffusion in some representative 1-D problems from the same benchmark test suite. The equivalence is sought with optimal diffusion coefficients computed using reference transport solutions that allow for adjusting the diffusion model. The RM, which attempts to obtain such equivalent diffusion coefficients without knowing the reference solution, is then compared to the optimal coefficients. The accuracy of the flux distribution at material interfaces is investigated for different approximations of the vacuum boundary and by decreasing progressively the RM convergence tolerance set in the iterative scheme. Using tighter convergence criteria, the RM calculates more accurate flux distributions at all material interfaces, regardless of the value of the diffusion coefficient and the extrapolated distance set at the beginning of the iterative scheme. Maximum flux deviations are remarkably reduced when the RM convergence tolerance is set to eight or more significant digits, leading to improvements in the flux deviation of two orders in magnitude and providing numerical proof for equivalence with transport in the tested configurations.

An analytical model of P+ SiC core-shell JLFETs to analyze the performance for higher breakdown voltages applications

In this article, we proposed a core-shell (CS) architecture that uses the silicon carbide (SiC) as a nanowire for higher breakdown voltages in a Junctionless field effect transistor (JLFET). The P+ core-shell improves the electrostatic integrity and reduces lateral band-to-band tunneling in SiC JLFET. Furthermore, the SiC is wide band gap material which helps to achieve the full volume depletion in JLFET at such short channel lengths. Thus, the OFF-state current in P+ SiC CS JLFET has reduced to 10−16 μA even at temperature 600 K and VDS = 2.0 V. The P+ SiC CS JLFET shows significant performance even at higher drain voltages. Hence, we investigate the P+ SiC CS JLFET for higher breakdown voltages with the impact of higher temperatures. In addition, the impact of higher drain voltages with higher temperatures is also examined. This paper presents an analytical model for P+ SiC CS JLFETs which considers Poisson's equation for nanowires as well as the surface potential at the threshold voltage (Vth) and electric field at the zero point (Ez). The model shows that the surface potential and the electric fields in nanowires are essential for an accurate estimation of the drain current. In addition to the numerical modeling results provided by SILVACO TCAD, the performance of the proposed analytical model was compared with simulation results. The results showed good agreement between the simulations and the proposed compact model. This indicates that the proposed model can be used to provide accurate drain current predictions in nanoscale transistors.

Population-level insights into temporal interference for focused deep brain neuromodulation.

The ability to stimulate deep brain regions in a focal manner brings new opportunities for treating brain disorders. Temporal interference (TI) stimulation has been suggested as a method to achieve focused stimulation in deep brain targets. Individual-level knowledge of the interferential currents has permitted personalizing TI montage via subject-specific digital human head models, facilitating the estimation of interferential electric currents in the brain. While this individual approach offers a high degree of personalization, the significant intra-and inter-individual variability among specific head models poses challenges when comparing electric-field doses. Furthermore, MRI acquisition to develop a personalized head model, followed by precise methods for placing the optimized electrode positions, is complex and not always available in various clinical settings. Instead, the registration of individual electric fields into brain templates has offered insights into population-level effects and enabled montage optimization using common scalp landmarks. However, population-level knowledge of the interferential currents remains scarce. This work aimed to investigate the effectiveness of targeting deep brain areas using TI in different populations. The results showed a trade-off between deep stimulation and unwanted cortical neuromodulation, which is target-dependent at the group level. A consistent modulated electric field appeared in the deep brain target when the same montage was applied in different populations. However, the performance in terms of focality and variability varied when the same montage was used among populations. Also, group-level TI exhibited greater focality than tACS, reducing unwanted neuromodulation volume in the cortical part by at least 1.5 times, albeit with higher variability. These results provide valuable population-level insights when considering TI montage selection.

Application of the maximum crosscorrelation method for estimation of surface currents of large inland water areas

Application of the maximum crosscorrelation method for estimation of surface currents of large inland water areas

Deep Copula-Based Survival Analysis for Dependent Censoring with Identifiability Guarantees

Censoring is the central problem in survival analysis where either the time-to-event (for instance, death), or the time-to censoring (such as loss of follow-up) is observed for each sample. The majority of existing machine learning-based survival analysis methods assume that survival is conditionally independent of censoring given a set of covariates; an assumption that cannot be verified since only marginal distributions is available from the data. The existence of dependent censoring, along with the inherent bias in current estimators has been demonstrated in a variety of applications, accentuating the need for a more nuanced approach. However, existing methods that adjust for dependent censoring require practitioners to specify the ground truth copula. This requirement poses a significant challenge for practical applications, as model misspecification can lead to substantial bias. In this work, we propose a flexible deep learning-based survival analysis method that simultaneously accommodate for dependent censoring and eliminates the requirement for specifying the ground truth copula. We theoretically prove the identifiability of our model under a broad family of copulas and survival distributions. Experiments results from a wide range of datasets demonstrate that our approach successfully discerns the underlying dependency structure and significantly reduces survival estimation bias when compared to existing methods.

Antagonism of 5-HT2 receptors attenuates self-sustained firing of human motor units.

5-HT2 receptors on motoneurones play a critical role in facilitating persistent inward currents (PICs). Although facilitation of PICs can enhance self-sustained firing after periods of excitation, the relationship between 5-HT2 receptor activity and self-sustained firing in human motor units (MUs) has not been resolved. MU activity was assessed from the tibialis anterior of 10 healthy adults (24.9 ± 2.8 years) during two contraction protocols. Both protocols featured steady-state isometric contractions with constant descending drive to the motoneurone pool. However, one protocol also included an additional phase of superimposed descending drive. Adding and then removing descending drive in the middle of steady-state contractions altered MU firing behaviour across the motor pool, where newly recruited units in the superimposed phase were unable to switch off (P=0.0002), and units recruited prior to additional descending drive reduced their discharge rates (P<0.0001, difference in estimated marginal means (∆)=2.24 pulses/s). The 5-HT2 receptor antagonist, cyproheptadine, was then administered to determine whether changes in MU firing were mediated by serotonergic mechanisms. 5-HT2 receptor antagonism caused reductions in MU discharge rate (P<0.001, ∆=1.65 pulses/s), recruitment threshold (P=0.00112, ∆=1.09% maximal voluntary contraction) and self-sustained firing duration (P<0.0001, ∆=1.77s) after the additional descending drive was removed in the middle of the steady-state contraction. These findings indicate that serotonergic neuromodulation plays a key role in facilitating discharge and self-sustained firing of human motoneurones, where adaptive changes in MU recruitment must occur to meet the demands of the contraction. KEY POINTS: Animal and cellular preparations indicate that somato-dendritic 5-HT2 receptors regulate the intrinsic excitability of motoneurones. 5-HT2 receptor antagonism reduces estimates of persistent inward currents in motoneurones, which contribute to self-sustained firing when synaptic inputs are reduced or removed. This human study employed a contraction task that slowly increased (and then removed) the additional descending drive in the middle of a steady-state contraction where marked self-sustained firing occurred when the descending drive was removed. 5-HT2 receptor antagonism caused widespread reductions in motor unit (MU) discharge rates during contractions, which was accompanied by reduced recruitment threshold and attenuation of self-sustained firing duration after the removal of the additional descending drive to motoneurones. These findings support the role that serotonergic neuromodulation is a key facilitator of MU discharge and self-sustained firing of human motoneurones, where adaptative changes in MU recruitment must occur to meet the demands of the contraction.

Multi-source data driven harmonic spectrum estimation of substation feeder current

With the proliferation of non-linear loads and distributed power resources that connect through power electronic equipment, decentralized harmonic pollution in three-phase symmetric power system becomes increasingly serious. Despite this, monitoring the current harmonic of all substation feeders regardless of cost is unrealistic. To this end, a multi-source data driven method is proposed in this paper, utilizing data from the power quality monitoring system, dispatching system, and market business system, to estimate the harmonic spectrum of substation feeder currents and estimate the harmonic current components of each feeder with monitoring data of bus voltage harmonics and line harmonic currents. The objective function of the harmonic spectrum estimation model is constructed based on the analysis of current harmonic phasor and power relationship on the feeders. An improved particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is proposed to solve the proposed estimation model thereby obtaining the current harmonic content of each feeder and the phase angle difference between the current harmonics of the feeders. The performance of the proposed model and algorithm is validated by numerical simulation with a test system and an actual system.

Design of an Environmental Barrier Coating Bond Strength Test Coupon

Abstract The bond strength of an environmental barrier coating (EBC) to a substrate such as a silicon carbide fiber/silicon carbide matrix (SiC/SiC) ceramic matrix composite (CMC) is a function of coating application parameters, matrix surface roughness, and environmental exposure, which results in the formation of a thermally grown oxide layer (TGO) layer. Current estimates of the EBC bond strength to a substrate are made assuming that the applied force divided by pull tab area is a representative metric. Although this is an expedient method for rapid strength estimates, the process of bonding the EBC to a pull-tab creates thermo-elastic residual stresses that are superimposed with the applied tensile load. Minimization of these stresses via test specimen design should give the most realistic estimate of EBC bond strength. We examine the residual stresses imposed on the EBC by cooling of an adhesive layer bonded to various metal and ceramic tabs. The results are extended to examine the stress distribution in a TGO layer formed on a Plasma Spray-Physical Vapor Deposited (PS-PVD) Yb2Si2O7 (ytterbium disilicate) EBC. An EBC/substrate coupon that overhangs a titanium or Kovar® pull tab is recommended in order to minimize thermal stresses, avoid edge effects, and provide an acreage strength measurement. The test method is sensitive to changes in substrate surface finish and oxidation time.

A negative trend in abundance and an exceeded mortality limit call for conservation action for the Vulnerable Belt Sea harbour porpoise population

The management and conservation of biodiversity relies on information on both the abundance of species and the potential impact of threats. Globally, one of the largest threats towards marine biodiversity is bycatch in fisheries. Under the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD), EU Member States are required to assess the status of species, such as the harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena), in relation to their abundance and mortality due to bycatch every six years. The Vulnerable (HELCOM) Belt Sea population of harbour porpoise has been surveyed to determine its abundance six times using dedicated aerial or ship-based line-transect distance sampling surveys. Here, we estimated the first trend in population abundance over an 18 year period (2005-2022). Using the most recent abundance estimate, we computed a mortality limit applying the modified Potential Biological Removal (mPBR) method based on the regionally agreed conservation objective to restore or maintain 80% of carrying capacity over 100 years with an 80% probability. Over the past 18 years there has been a strong negative trend (-2.7% p.a.; 95% CI: -4.1%; + 1.3%) in abundance, with a 90.5% probability. The mortality limit was estimated to be 24 animals, which the current bycatch estimates (~900 porpoises/year from the commercial Danish and Swedish set net fishery fleets, with no data from Germany and other fishery types) exceed by far. The frequency and quality of data available on abundance for this population are higher than those available for the majority of marine species. Given the observed population decline and likely unsustainable levels of bycatch, the results presented here provide a strong basis to make informed, evidence-based management decisions for action for this population. Such action is needed urgently, before the dire situation of other porpoise species and populations around the globe is repeated.