Current Dollars Research Articles

Health burden and attributable economic damage of conflict and terrorism in the Eastern Mediterranean Region

ABSTRACT This study aimed to vividly describe the direct and severe health impacts of conflict in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD). It also sought to quantify the staggering portion of economic damage attributable to the health burden of conflict and terrorism. From 1990 to 2019, the region endured the devastating effects of conflict and terrorism. These circumstances led to 64%, 50%, and 35% of all causes of Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) in Libya, Syria, and Palestine, respectively, in 2011, 2016, and 2008. These figures represent not just statistics but the profound human cost of these conflicts. The health-related economic burden (HEB) due to conflict was estimated at $4.6 billion in Iraq, $3.7 billion in Afghanistan, and $1.7 billion in Libya in current international dollars. However, due to missing data, the HEB could not be calculated for Yemen and Syria despite significant conflict-related DALYs. In 2019, the HEB to Current Health Expenditure (CHE) ratio, which indicates the proportion of the health-related economic burden compared to health expenditure, was 30% in Afghanistan and 25% in Iraq. This high ratio underscores the significant strain that conflict places on the health systems.

Emission reduction pathways for satisfying Türkiye's future electricity demand: A cross-country dynamic panel analysis with linear programming scenarios

This paper studies whether feasible and plausible pathways exist for Türkiye to meet its growing electricity demand while reducing its emissions, by relying more on renewables, instead of increasing the use of its local coal resources. Our quantitative analysis proceeds in two stages. In the first stage, we determine the future electricity demand of Türkiye from 2020 to 2040 with the use of a dynamic panel data model. A 41-country balanced panel data set that comprises of five-year interval data, between 1990 and 2015. In the second stage, we develop linear programming models to generate realistic and reasonable scenarios representing three probable future pathways to meet the econometrically estimated electricity demand. The scenarios we have designed are business-as-usual (BAU), which includes the nuclear power plant, minimize GHGs (minGHG), and maximize local resources (MaxLocal). The latter scenarios omit the possible completion of the nuclear power plant in the next ten to twelve years. The generated scenarios are compared in terms of investment requirements and CO2e emissions. The model results of minGHG and MaxLocal both show that the share of renewable generation should reach around 65% to satisfy the projected demand by 2040. However, the difference in CO2e emissions (Mton/TWh) between the two cases is enormous: 0.408 for MaxLocal vs. 0.180 for minGHG! Moreover, required annual investment under minGHG is USD 0.19 billion cheaper on average (per year), which corresponds to a 21-year cumulative difference of USD 3.99 billion in current dollars. Therefore, a secure low-carbon pathway with a lower investment requirement is possible for Türkiye without nuclear power or new coal plants, while also phasing-out the existing coal plants under a moderate transition plan with a minimum amount of stranded assets.

Applications of telemedicine: Plastic surgery in the COVID-19 era

Applications of telemedicine: Plastic surgery in the COVID-19 era

Fractionalization of MENA Countries in Political Economy Categories

The article dwells on configuring Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries in three political economy dimensions: population, gross national income per capita in current international dollars converted by purchasing power parities (per capita GNI PPP), and human development measured by the Human Development Index (HDI). Furthermore, the relationship between the mentioned dimensions and self-reported life satisfaction as well as the Index of Happiness is analyzed. The author conducts comparative analysis of diversity within a target region, shows where it fits on the world scale, and focuses on drawbacks in the data. The author concludes that the MENA region is a volitile cluster from the standpoint of safety, political rationality, and living standards. Armed clashes, technogenic accidents, the refugee problem in coping with the trend of demographic growth will put extra stress on the national economies of states and create great challenges for the governments.

Determinants of Inflation in Liberia: An Econometric Analysis Using ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

The rate of inflation in Liberia has increased significantly over the last two decades and, since the ascendency of the new government headed by President George Manneh Weah, it has become more pronounced. The steep rise in inflation is increasingly eroding the purchasing power of consumers, thus leading to welfare decline especially for low income earners. The overarching objective of this study is to assess the determinants of inflation in Liberia. To achieve this objective, this study employs Bounds Testing Approach and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) techniques using monthly time series data spanning the period 2014 to 2018. The empirical findings of this study reveal that, the current rate of inflation in Liberia is largely influenced by the unauthorized printing and infusion of new banknotes into the economy by the Central Bank of Liberia. In addendum, the results show that Customs taxes, foreign exchange rate depreciation arising from balance of payment deficits, international oil price, and import are key determinants of inflation in Liberia. Consistent with the results, this study recommends the demonetization of the current Liberian dollars banknotes (both old and new). This will provide the central bank with reliable data regarding the total quantity of Liberian dollars in circulation, thereby enabling the bank to promulgate salient contractionary monetary policies that would drive the current rate of inflation to single digit. Additionally, this study recommends that the government of Liberia embark upon diversification policies with greater emphasis placed on value addition in manufacturing and agricultural production for domestic consumption. JEL Classification Codes: E31; E58. Keywords: Liberia, Inflation, ARDL, Central Bank of Liberia DOI: 10.7176/JESD/11-6-04 Publication date: March 31 st 2020

Placing a monetary value on the human health component of zoonotic diseases: A methodological note with an application to cysticercosis in Africa

Ideally, policies aiming to tackle zoonotic diseases in animals and reduce the burden of disease in humans should be based on an assessment of the cost and benefits of alternative interventions. However, while the cost of actions targeting diseases in animals and humans and the benefits in terms of increased livestock production can be monetized, it is a challenge to monetize improvements in the quality of life or to life expectancy extensions in humans in zoonotic policy evaluations. This paper proposes a method to monetize the human health benefits derived from zoonotic disease reduction and applies it to cysticercosis in Burkina Faso, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria and Uganda.We propose a three-step approach to estimate the human health component of the monetary impact of zoonoses. First, we proxy society’s willingness to pay to avoid a disability adjusted life year (DALY) using the annualized value of statistical life (VSL) estimated by of the United States Department of Health and Human Services. Second, we implement a benefit transfer methodology to transfer the US value into the context of the sampled countries, accounting for differences in income levels. Finally, we use the 2016 Global Burden of Disease (GBD, 2018) data on cysticercosis to estimate its monetary impact on human health. All results are estimated in current international dollars using purchasing power parity (USD PPP) exchange rates.In the sampled countries, willingness to pay to avoid a DALY is estimated between USD PPP 2 000 and USD PPP 12 700. In most cases, these estimates fall within the range of 1 and 3 times the GDP per capita. The estimated monetary value of the DALYs due to human infections of cysticercosis per 100 000 people ranges between USD PPP 18 000 and USD PPP 98 000 per year. The proposed methodology might represent a first step towards providing a consistent and unbiased measure of the benefits of interventions targeting prevention, detection and control of zoonotic diseases.

The arsenal of democracy: Production and politics during WWII

We study the geographic distribution of military supply contracts during World War II. This is a unique case, where $3 trillion current day dollars was spent. We find robust evidence consistent with the hypothesis that economic factors dominated the allocation of supply contracts, and that political factors—or at least winning the 1944 presidential election—were at best of secondary importance. General industrial capacity in 1939, as well as specialized industrial capacity for aircraft production, are strong predictors of contract spending across states. Electoral college pivot probabilities are weak predictors of contract (and new facilities) spending, and under the most plausible assumptions they are essentially unrelated to spending. This is true over the entire period 1940–1944, and also for shorter periods leading up to the election in November 1944. That is, we find no evidence of an electoral cycle in the distribution of funds.

Agricultural implications of providing soil-based constraints on urban expansion: Land use forecasts to 2050

Urbanization onto adjacent farmlands directly reduces the agricultural area available to meet the resource needs of a growing society. Soil conservation is a common objective in urban planning, but little focus has been placed on targeting soil value as a metric for conservation. This study assigns commodity and water storage values to the agricultural soils across all of the watersheds in Michigan's Lower Peninsula to evaluate how cities might respond to a soil conservation-based urbanization strategy. Land Transformation Model (LTM) simulations representing both traditional and soil conservation-based urbanization, are used to forecast urban area growth from 2010 to 2050 at five year intervals. The expansion of urban areas onto adjacent farmland is then evaluated to quantify the conservation effects of soil-based development. Results indicate that a soil-based protection strategy significantly conserves total farmland, especially more fertile soils within each soil type. In terms of revenue, ∼$88 million (in current dollars) would be conserved in 2050 using soil-based constraints, with the projected savings from 2011 to 2050 totaling more than $1.5 billion. Soil-based urbanization also increased urban density for each major metropolitan area. For example, there were 94,640 more acres directly adjacent to urban land by 2050 under traditional development compared to the soil-based urbanization strategy, indicating that urban sprawl was more tightly contained when including soil value as a metric to guide development. This study indicates that implementing a soil-based urbanization strategy would better satisfy future agricultural resource needs than traditional urban planning.

OP109 Comparison Of The Health System Establishment Periods In Eighty-Eight Countries

Introduction:Health system reform is considered a tough issue worldwide. Great efforts have been made toward health system building and strengthening. However, it is still unclear which health system is appropriate for different countries. This study aimed to systematically compare the characteristics of the establishment periods between eighty-eight counties of National Health Service (NHS) and Social Health Insurance (SHI).Methods:Forty-eight NHS countries and forty SHI countries with data availability were selected. The establishment years of current health systems and other eighteen indicators in economics, society, population and health during establishment periods were collected. Comparison between NHS and SHI was conducted by descriptive analysis of every indicator.Results:Most NHS countries were established during the cold war, while SHI had been set up since the cold war ended. The median of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, urbanization rate and aging rate of SHI were USD 1535 in current dollars, 58.2 percent and 9.8 percent, respectively; compared with USD 1387, 41.2 percent and 4.7 percent, respectively of NHS. NHS countries had a smaller total population, lower mortality rate and elderly dependency ratio, while the birth rate and children's dependency ratio were higher. SHI countries showed a higher life expectancy and lower mortality rate in infants and children. NHS countries spent less in total health expenditure and a lower proportion of GDP. The median health expenditure per capita of SHI and NHS were USD 188 and USD 131 in current dollars, respectively. There was little difference among maternal mortality rates, and public and private health expenditure proportions.Conclusions:NHS and SHI countries had different characteristics during the health system establishment periods. NHS was established earlier than SHI overall, so that SHI revealed higher levels in economic and social development. Health outcomes of NHS countries were slightly lower than SHI ones, while health expenditure was more in SHI countries. Specific social, economic, demographic and health conditions should be considered when countries are building their own health systems.

Drug-class-specific changes in the volume and cost of antidiabetic medications in Poland between 2012 and 2015.

Aimto investigate the drug-class-specific changes in the volume and cost of antidiabetic medications in Poland in 2012–2015.MethodsThis retrospective analysis was conducted based on the National Health Fund database covering an entire Polish population. The volume of antidiabetic medications is reported according to ATC/DDD methodology, costs—in current international dollars, based on purchasing power parity.ResultsDuring a 4-year observational period the number of patients, consumption of antidiabetic drugs and costs increased by 17%, 21% and 20%, respectively. Biguanides are the basic diabetes medication with a 39% market share. The insulin market is still dominated by human insulins, new antidiabetics (incretins, thiazolidinediones) are practically absent. Insulins had the largest share in diabetes medications expenditures (67% in 2015). The increase in antidiabetic medications costs over the analysed period of time was mainly caused by the increased use of insulin analogues.ConclusionsThe observed tendencies correspond to the evidence-based HTA recommendations. The reimbursement status, the ratio of cost to clinical outcomes and data on the long-term safety have a deciding impact on how a drug is used.

Crises in Economic Thought, Secular Stagnation, and Future Economic Research

Crises in Economic Thought, Secular Stagnation, and Future Economic Research

On the Economic Returns From a Global Program of Social Capital: A Trillion Dollar Agenda for Growth

Abstract For the economy to grow, the actors in the marketplace need to expand the overall output rather than jostle each other for bigger shares of the available output. To this end, the productivity level may be boosted through a comprehensive program of social capital. Based on the experience of the 20 th century, the rich countries of the world could afford to commit US$1 trillion per year for a couple of decades. According to a compelling scenario, the total investment of $20 trillion in nominal terms will comprise $13.6 trillion in current dollars since the funds will be disbursed over time rather than spent at once. Based on conservative estimates, the present value of the benefits will exceed $3.39 quadrillion which represents a payback of 249 times the original investment. In this way, the windfall from a global program of social capital should far surpass the outlay required for its implementation. Key words: Economic Growth, Social Capital, Foreign Aid, Emerging Markets, Productivity JEL: E20, E60, O10, P00, Z10.

Assessing the Impacts of Sea Level Rise Using Existing Data

Local communities want to know the cost of improvements needed to their drainage system based on projected sea level rise. Prior research demonstrates that in coastal areas, groundwater will rise with sea level. As a result the combination of groundwater levels and tidal data must be used to predict local impacts of sea level rise on the drainage system. However, it would appear to complicate the situation if the amount of data available for making sea level rise projections with groundwater is limited. The objectives of this task were to identify available data in a data limited community, compare the available data, assess the impact of sea level rise on the community, and its impact on the stormwater system, identify vulnerable areas in the City, provide an estimate of long-term costs for improvements, and provide a toolbox of strategies to employ at the appropriate time. The project was conducted using ArcGIS tools to import tidal, groundwater, topographic LiDAR and infrastructure improvements into GIS software and performing analysis based on current data. The cost of improvements was based on applying actual 2015 construction costs in the subject comments across a larger vulnerable area. It was found that the data sources provided similar results, despite different timelines and dates so did not interfere with the subsequent analysis. The data revealed that over $400 million in current dollars might be needed to address stormwater issues arising from sea level rise before 2100.

Economic costs of critical infrastructure failure in bi-national regions and implications for resilience building: Evidence from El Paso–Ciudad Juarez

Transport infrastructure of the ports-of-entry (POEs) and the Bridge of the Americas (BOTA) in the El Paso–Juarez region is important for international trade and economic vitality for both countries. This paper's contribution lies in the use of a bi-national dynamic traffic assignment model that is calibrated for the region to obtain temporal insights into daily travel effects and economic costs of an unintended disruption of the POE approach infrastructure. Travel effects and costs are evaluated for a before-and-after comparative study and changes in both daily static and dynamic travel times are considered. The model considers flow directionality, allowing the framework to isolate international flows from domestic trips for the determination of direct costs. Delays at POEs are treated exogenously since inspections are not part of the model. Simulation results show that the costs for shippers, carriers including delays at POEs could approximate $191 million in the immediate short run (in current dollars). The disruption is considered an isolated event with no impacts to additional infrastructure. Managerial actions are suggested for resilience building and suggestions are made for future research including mitigation and a network approach to resilience in assets consistent with economic dependencies.

Cost analysis of oil, gas, and geothermal well drilling

Abstract This paper evaluates current and historical drilling and completion costs of oil and gas wells and compares them with geothermal wells costs. As a starting point, we developed a new cost index for US onshore oil and gas wells based primarily on the API Joint Association Survey 1976–2009 data. This index describes year-to-year variations in drilling costs and allows one to express historical drilling expenditures in current year dollars. To distinguish from other cost indices we have labeled it the Cornell Energy Institute (CEI) Index. This index has nine sub-indices for different well depth intervals and has been corrected for yearly changes in drilling activity. The CEI index shows 70% higher increase in well cost between 2003 and 2008 compared to the commonly used Producer Price Index (PPI) for drilling oil and gas wells. Cost trends for various depths were found to be significantly different and explained in terms of variations of oil and gas prices, costs, and availability of major well components and services at particular locations. Multiple methods were evaluated to infer the cost-depth correlation for geothermal wells in current year dollars. In addition to analyzing reported costs of the most recently completed geothermal wells, we investigated the results of the predictive geothermal well cost model WellCost Lite. Moreover, a cost database of 146 historical geothermal wells has been assembled. The CEI index was initially used to normalize costs of these wells to current year dollars. A comparison of normalized costs of historical wells with recently drilled ones and WellCost Lite predictions shows that cost escalation rates of geothermal wells were considerably lower compared to hydrocarbon wells and that a cost index based on hydrocarbon wells is not applicable to geothermal well drilling. Besides evaluating the average well costs, this work examined economic improvements resulting from increased drilling experience. Learning curve effects related to drilling multiple similar wells within the same field were correlated.

White House Budget Proposal Supports Science Agencies and Programs

The proposed federal budget for fiscal year (FY) 2014, which the Obama administration sent to Congress on 10 April, would provide overall strong support for federal science agencies in a tight budget environment. The proposal calls for $142.8 billion for federal research and development (R&D), an increase of almost $1.9 billion, or 1.3%, above the 2012 enacted level in current dollars. However, the proposed budget is a slight decrease when factoring in an expected 4% inflation between 2012 and 2014.

Cost analysis of chronic disease self-management programmes being delivered in South Florida

Background: Chronic disease accounts for the majority of healthcare costs. The Chronic Disease Self-Management Programme (CDSMP) has been shown to be effective in reducing the burden of chronic disease. Objectives: The objective of this study was to measure the cost of delivering the Chronic Disease Self-Management Programme (CDSMP) in order to determine whether it has the potential to produce a net cost saving among elderly residents of South Florida. Methods: Cost data were collected from four agencies participating in the delivery of CDSMP workshops in South Florida. Information on healthcare cost savings were obtained from the literature and updated to current dollars. Questionnaires were emailed to programme coordinators from agencies participating in the delivery of CDSMP workshops. Questionnaires were returned via email. Costs were computed from the perspective of the participating agencies. Results: Costs for implementation per programme participant were US$204. These average costs are below the US$1,381 healthcare cost reductions documented in the literature during the first year following programme participation. Conclusion: Results suggest the potential effectiveness of CDSMP in reducing healthcare costs among elderly residents of South Florida. This has implications for the further dissemination and sustainability of evidence-based programmes for seniors. An evaluation of outcomes among the South Florida population is needed.

WHAT IT TAKES TO SOLVE THE U.S. GOVERNMENT DEFICIT PROBLEM

1. INTRODUCTION This paper estimates, using a structural multi-country macroeconometric denoted the model, what it takes to stabilize the long-run U.S. federal government debt/gross domestic product (GDP) ratio. The fiscal policy tool is federal transfer payments. This question is complicated in part because of endogeneity issues.A fiscal-policy change designed to decrease the deficit has effects on the macroeconomy, which in turn affect the deficit. Any analysis of fiscal-policy proposals must take these effects into account: one needs a model of the economy. The period considered is 2013-2022. The experiments are performed off of a base run.The base run is one in which there are no major changes in U.S. fiscal policy from 2013 on. Aggregate tax rates are taken to be unchanged from their values in 2012:4 except for the payroll tax rate, which is taken to go back to its 2010:4 value. (The payroll tax cut is not extended beyond 2012:4.) This treatment of tax rates means that the Bush tax cuts are assumed not to expire at the end of 2012. Federal government purchases of goods and services and federal transfer payments to households and to state and local governments are assumed to grow at recent historical rates net of the effects of the various stimulus measures. This means that the currently legislated cuts in future defense spending are assumed not to go into effect. As will be seen, the base run has an ever increasing debt/GDP ratio. This is, of course, consistent with almost all recent analyses. Without major fiscal-policy changes, the U.S. government debt/GDP ratio is expected to rise without limit. See, for example, Penner (2011) and CBO (2011). The experiments consist of decreasing transfer payments from the base run beginning in 2013:1. The size of the decrease is chosen to stabilize the debt/GDP ratio by 2022. The results show that decreasing transfer payments by 2% of GDP from the base run stabilizes the debt/GDP ratio. The decrease in transfer payments over the 10 years is $4.8 trillion in current dollars and $3.2 trillion in 2005 dollars. The sum of the real output loss (2005 dollars) over the 10 years is $1.8 trillion, which is 1.1 % of sum of real output over the 10 years from the base run. The average number of jobs per quarter is 1.55 million lower, and the average number of people unemployed per Quarter is 680,000 higher. Monetary policy is endogenous in the model; it is determined by an estimated interest rate rule. Monetary policy mitigates the fall in output from the fiscal contraction, but it is not powerful enough to eliminate all of the output loss. (1) Section II discusses the MC model; Section III presents the base run; Section IV presents the alternative run; and Section V discusses some robustness checks. II. THE MC MODEL (2) The MC model uses the methodology of structural macroeconometric modeling, sometimes called the Cowles Commission approach, which goes back at least to Tinbergen (1939). I contrast this methodology with that of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models in Fair (2012). The main arguments against the DSGE methodology are that the models tend to be heavily calibrated, leave out many features of the economy, use theory in a highly restrictive way, and are based on the assumption of rational expectations, which may not be realistic. The MC model is much more empirically based than are the DSGE models, but the model is not just a series of ad hoc regressions. In the theory behind the households maximize expected utility and firms maximize expected profits. The theory is used to choose left-hand-side and right-hand-side variables in the equations to be estimated. The estimated equations are taken to be approximations to the decision equations of agents. The theory leads to many exclusion restrictions in the estimated equations, and lack of identification is not an issue. Expectations are assumed to be adaptive. …

The Cost of Carbon Capture and Storage for Natural Gas Combined Cycle Power Plants

This paper examines the cost of CO(2) capture and storage (CCS) for natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plants. Existing studies employ a broad range of assumptions and lack a consistent costing method. This study takes a more systematic approach to analyze plants with an amine-based postcombustion CCS system with 90% CO(2) capture. We employ sensitivity analyses together with a probabilistic analysis to quantify costs for plants with and without CCS under uncertainty or variability in key parameters. Results for new baseload plants indicate a likely increase in levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of $20-32/MWh (constant 2007$) or $22-40/MWh in current dollars. A risk premium for plants with CCS increases these ranges to $23-39/MWh and $25-46/MWh, respectively. Based on current cost estimates, our analysis further shows that a policy to encourage CCS at new NGCC plants via an emission tax or carbon price requires (at 95% confidence) a price of at least $125/t CO(2) to ensure NGCC-CCS is cheaper than a plant without CCS. Higher costs are found for nonbaseload plants and CCS retrofits.

Medical Education—the Challenge of Distinguishing Actual Costs versus Charges (Tuition)

Medical Education—the Challenge of Distinguishing Actual Costs versus Charges (Tuition)