Current Commitments Research Articles

Stronger NDCs With Cities, States, and Regions: Recommendations for National Governments

Climate change poses an unprecedented threat to societies and ecosystems worldwide. Without the rapid reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across the globe and bold action to reduce climate impacts, the world will face devastating consequences to be felt for generations to come. Yet current climate commitments are not in line with pathways needed to achieve net zero emissions and meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. Countries can significantly enhance the ambition of their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) through a more collaborative and integrated approach with subnational governments to fully align with the Paris Agreement goals. This document supports national governments in the facilitation of input from subnational governments in the NDC development process. It has been written with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s 2025 NDC deadline in mind, but it will support countries beyond this milestone and can be considered a tool for designing all successive NDCs.

Projected rapid response of stratospheric temperature to stringent climate mitigation

Deep, rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are required to meet the 2015 Paris Agreement climate target. If the world strengthens efforts toward near-term decarbonisation and undertakes major societal transformation, this will be met with requests from policymakers and the public for evidence that our actions are working and there are demonstrable effects on the climate system. Global surface temperature exhibits large internal variability on interannual to decadal timescales, meaning a reduction in the magnitude of surface warming would not be robustly attributable to climate mitigation for some time. In contrast, global stratospheric temperature trends have much higher signal-to-noise ratios and could offer an early indication of the effects of climate mitigation. Here we examine projected near-term global temperature trends at the surface and in the stratosphere using large ensemble climate models following three future emission scenarios. Under rapid, deep emission cuts following SSP1–1.9, modelled middle and upper stratospheric cooling trends show a detectable weakening within 5 years compared to a scenario approximately representing current climate commitments (SSP2–4.5). Therefore, stratospheric temperature trends could serve as an early indicator to policymakers and the public that climate mitigation is taking effect.

The Relationship between Renewable Energy Consumption and Human Development

This article examines the relationship between renewable energy consumption and human development indicators in Moldova. The analysis, spanning from 1995 to 2021, employs econometric techniques, including Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) regression, to investigate the impact of renewable energy on the Human Development Index (HDI). The findings reveal a positive correlation between renewable energy consumption and HDI, indicating that increased adoption of renewable energy is associated with improvements in human development. Specifically, the study finds that a one-percentage-point increase in renewable energy consumption leads to approximately a 1.6% increase in HDI. Moreover, the article discusses Moldova's energy policy landscape, highlighting initiatives and policies aimed at promoting renewable energy development and achieving sustainability goals. The conclusions drawn from this study emphasize the critical importance of prioritizing renewable energy solutions. Such prioritization is deemed essential for driving sustainable development, fostering economic growth, bolstering energy security, and mitigating the adverse impacts of climate change. The study underscores that Moldova's experience and policy initiatives could serve as a valuable model for other nations aiming to enhance their human development through sustainable energy practices. This research argues for a continued and intensified focus on the integration of renewable energy, highlighting its fundamental importance within national and international strategies aimed at achieving ambitious human development and sustainability goals. This involves a reassessment and expansion of current commitments, considering not only the ecological benefits, but also the long-term economic and social impact, thereby strengthening a sustainable future for future generations.

Interest convergence and the maintenance of racial advantage: The case of diversity in higher education

AbstractOne of the major tenets of Critical Race Theory, the interest convergence hypothesis postulates that policies promising improvements for Black Americans are enacted only to the extent they advance White Americans’ interests. We elaborate and update Bell's argument by demonstrating that current diversity commitments in higher education are another example of interest convergence. First, we present empirical and theoretical evidence that ubiquitous approaches to diversity serve the psychological interests of White Americans more than those of Black Americans. Second, we advance a systemic framework for how social psychological processes intersect with normative ideologies in the law and in universities’ operations to facilitate the prioritization of White over Black interests. In so doing, our goal is to illuminate the primacy of White identity and power as fundamental to shaping American society's collective embrace of diversity.

Creating the Dutch One Health Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs)

The world is changing, in terms of both climate and socio-economics. These changes have the potential to have a profound impact on the health of humans, animals and the environment, often grouped together as ‘One Health’. Humans, animals and the environment are closely interlinked and to determine realistic future vulnerabilities we must consider everything together. We need comprehensive scenarios which cover a broad range of variables affecting One Health. We developed a methodology to create national-level One Health scenarios based on the global Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), which we applied to the Netherlands. We identified variables which should be included in such scenarios and gathered input from existing scenarios, stakeholder consultation and current plans and commitments. This information was combined to create detailed descriptions, which were used to assess the main health risks under each scenario. All the scenarios face similar challenges, for example an aging population, introductions of infectious diseases and rising sea-levels and extreme weather events; however, in some scenarios, they deal with these challenges much better than in others. The healthiest outcome was achieved when a policy of low greenhouse gas emissions was combined with a well-functioning society which looks after both its citizens and the environment. These scenarios can be used to analyse specific health risks and to consider options for mitigation and preparedness. Because they are national-level scenarios, they allow the local context, policies and customs to be accounted for and should be a valuable tool for protecting One Health in the future.

Evaluating the National Action Plan (NAP) on antimicrobial resistance, and recommendations for the next 5-year NAP: a roundtable discussion

Abstract The UK’s current 5-year National Action Plan (NAP) on tackling antimicrobial resistance (AMR), which runs from 2019 to 2024, is coming to an end. As such, the next 5-year NAP is currently under development, and progress made towards the UK’s commitments on AMR is being analysed. This analysis has involved the publication of an addendum to the current NAP, which includes some new and revised commitments. Applied Microbiology International (AMI) held a roundtable discussion in November 2022, inviting UK experts from across the human and animal sectors to discuss their thoughts on progress to date, as well as any recommendations and key considerations they thought should be taken forward. Overall, it was agreed that there is a major disparity between the increasing ambitions of the NAP, and the reducing financial support for achieving said ambitions. The gap between evidence generation and implementing recommendations into real-world settings also presents a key challenge to overcome, if the NAPs commitments are to be achieved. A lack of communication and funding appear to underpin many of the barriers that prevent the successful delivery of current NAP commitments and are therefore highlighted as key areas of concern for policymakers to consider when looking to tackle AMR. The focus should be on successfully implementing and delivering the current NAP commitments ahead of identifying future ambitions.

Keeping Promises? Democracies’ Ability to Harmonize Their International and National Climate Commitments

Abstract Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, global emissions have put the world beyond its goals. While there are calls for increasing ambition, countries must match their current international commitments at the national level. Democracies were assumed to comply with their own international commitments, yet their ability to adopt national mitigation policies that are consistent with their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) varies. This study applies the Vertical Policy Harmonization Index to quantify the extent to which countries’ mitigation commitments are vertically harmonized in their NDCs and national policies. Using qualitative comparative analysis, I investigate the role of institutions, interests, and ideas in shaping the vertical (dis)harmony of twenty-four democracies. I find that fossil fuel dependency constrains the harmonization of mitigation commitments, even in the face of high vulnerability and low abatement costs. Moreover, the results support the previous findings of an ambiguous relationship between veto points and mitigation commitment. However, the roles of an established green party and public opinion in shaping disharmony remain unclear.

Committed Global Warming Risks Triggering Multiple Climate Tipping Points

AbstractMany scenarios for limiting global warming to 1.5°C assume planetary‐scale carbon dioxide removal sufficient to exceed anthropogenic emissions, resulting in radiative forcing falling and temperatures stabilizing. However, such removal technology may prove unfeasible for technical, environmental, political, or economic reasons, resulting in continuing greenhouse gas emissions from hard‐to‐mitigate sectors. This may lead to constant concentration scenarios, where net anthropogenic emissions remain non‐zero but small, and are roughly balanced by natural carbon sinks. Such a situation would keep atmospheric radiative forcing roughly constant. Fixed radiative forcing creates an equilibrium “committed” warming, captured in the concept of “equilibrium climate sensitivity.” This scenario is rarely analyzed as a potential extension to transient climate scenarios. Here, we aim to understand the planetary response to such fixed concentration commitments, with an emphasis on assessing the resulting likelihood of exceeding temperature thresholds that trigger climate tipping points. We explore transients followed by respective equilibrium committed warming initiated under low to high emission scenarios. We find that the likelihood of crossing the 1.5°C threshold and the 2.0°C threshold is 83% and 55%, respectively, if today's radiative forcing is maintained until achieving equilibrium global warming. Under the scenario that best matches current national commitments (RCP4.5), we estimate that in the transient stage, two tipping points will be crossed. If radiative forcing is then held fixed after the year 2100, a further six tipping point thresholds are crossed. Achieving a trajectory similar to RCP2.6 requires reaching net‐zero emissions rapidly, which would greatly reduce the likelihood of tipping events.

Current Commitments to Green House Gas (GHG) Emissions Reduction and Perspectives

Current Commitments to Green House Gas (GHG) Emissions Reduction and Perspectives

Creativity

This paper explores how adaptive creativity is continuously generated and sustained in living systems. The philosophical frame and motivations for this investigation will be introduced by juxtaposing an actual creative process with current cybernetic efforts to automate creativity. Past and present process philosophers that have critiqued the implicit commitments of these contemporary techniques will set the stage for further investigations. The litmus test of progress in this investigation will be measured against the extension of two concepts: virtuality, as introduced by Gilbert Simondon (On the Mode of the Existence of Technical Objects), and relevant noise, as introduced by Bacigalupi (“Semiogenesis: A Dynamic System Approach to Agency and Structure”). To refine the concepts of virtuality and relevant noise for our purposes, a rigorous theoretical model will be proposed whose intent is to explain veritable unbounded creativity. This model will then serve as a heuristic lens to explore additional extant models, such as the Kuramoto model (Strogatz), that are used to explain empirical observations of adaptive and creative behaviors in a diversity of biological phenomena. Based on these models of biological creativity and the critique of the contemporary cybernetic project, this paper will conclude by outlining the ethical implications of our culture’s current commitments to a cybernetic world view and how we might evolve beyond it.

Staying in bounds: A framework for setting workplace boundaries to promote physician wellness.

Staying in bounds: A framework for setting workplace boundaries to promote physician wellness.

Model emulators for the assessment of regional impacts and risks of climate change: A case study of rainfed maize production in Mexico

The collection of publicly available databases about climate change and its impacts on natural and human systems is unprecedented and ever-growing. However, the requirements of information can vary widely among users depending on their region, socioenvironmental context, and interests. Moreover, in the current era of active mitigation and adaptation policies, information needs are frequently not satisfied even by these massive and variated collections of databases. The development and use of emulators can help closing this information gap by allowing users to approximate the output from complex models and create user-defined experiments, without being technically or computational demanding on the user. Here, a simple emulator of the EPIC biophysical crop model is presented which is able to adequately reproduce the changes in rainfed maize and to create projections for user-defined scenarios. Moreover, it allows to produce risk measures that are not available with the original model. The proposed methodology is illustrated with a case study of rainfed maize production in Mexico for a reference emissions scenario (SSP370) and two user-defined international mitigation policy scenarios. These scenarios represent 1) current international mitigation commitments and 2) a scenario in which China withdraws from international mitigation efforts. Results showed that, under the reference scenario, climate change could have widespread consequences on rainfed production all over the country with decreases in yields reaching up to 80% in the southeast and northeast of the country. These impacts can be partially modulated by the moderately ambitious mitigation commitments assumed in recent international agreements if all countries comply. However, a potential withdraw of China from these efforts would significantly reduce any benefits from international mitigation. Under all scenarios, changes in productivity impose increasing risks for already vulnerable populations and considerable economic costs at the state and national levels. These results suggest the urgent need for critical planning for adaptation in the agricultural sector of the country.

THE FEASIBILITY OF SECURITIZATION IN GREENING BANK FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

Despite strong projections of imminent rising temperatures in the 21st century, a small fraction of banking assets flows towards green financing. The study aims to establish the feasibility of greening bank statements using the securitization technique. A document analysis was carried out on banks' statements of financial position. A purposive sampling of the top 40 banks by assets is employed. Commitments by the 40 largest banks by assets were obtained from their annual reports. The European securitization forum website provides the securitization issuance data. A green coverage model was formulated to determine the amount of climate-linked assets covered by the green commitments. A gap in coverage with a maximum of 40% was established. Regression analysis of the relationship between asset sizes and green financing commitments displayed a weak, nonetheless positive link between the variables. The null hypothesis stipulating no relationship between the variables was tested and rejected. The data supported the hypothesis that the value of securitization issuances is inadequate to green the financial statements. However, the feasibility of banks achieving green financing targets by increasing green finance coverage or current commitments with a disproportionate increase in brown-backed securitized assets was evident.

External Stakeholders and Environmental, Social & Governance (ESG) Disclosure: Review and Conceptual Model

ESG is widely used by both the investment community and non-investor corporate stakeholders as a shorthand for environmental, social, and governance issues that affect corporate behaviour and the ability of a company to create long-term value for their stakeholders. By early 2020, over 80 countries have introduced sustainability reporting instruments that either mandate or encourage corporate organisations to disclose their current and future ESG commitments (Lugt & Wijs, 2020). However, recent literature revealed that mandatory disclosure affects an organisation's propensity to file an ESG report but does not increase the average quality of filed reports (Krueger et al., 2021). This implies that new approaches are needed to encourage quality reporting, specifically among those companies that have yet to publish any quantitative data. Against this backdrop, policy makers are urged to leverage on the distinctive contextual pressure exerted by external stakeholders to induce corporate organisations to commit towards greater sustainability practices, However, there is a dearth of empirical studies that examine the influence of external stakeholders on corporate ESG disclosure over time. Despite consensus were established in the extant literature as to which stakeholders are influential on ESG disclosure, their influences are ambiguous, context-dependent and vary over time depending on the issues considered (Yunus et al., 2019). Keywords: ESG, Sustainability Reporting, Stakeholders

Increasing Australian Lithium Production to Meet Electric Vehicles and Net Zero Global Targets: A Decarbonisation Tax Discount?*

Current commitments with net zero 2050 require that more than two billion electric vehicles (EVs) be produced globally by 2035. Australia produces more than 55% of the global lithium in the world. We argue that Australia's most significant contribution to realising net zero 2050 could be to increase lithium production 10‐20‐fold by 2035. A similar case could equally be made for increasing other critical minerals. This would also contribute to securing Australia's energy and national security. To realise these benefits current investment in lithium is much lower than the production of lithium batteries used in EVs requires, reflecting suboptimal tax rates. We conclude by proposing that a decarbonisation tax discount for critical minerals is needed.

Higher Education for Interdisciplinary Education in Sustainable Development

The commitments of higher education (HE) and in particular universities with regard to the creation of conditions to implement a strategy and pursue a policy for training and research in the field of sustainable development (SD) has critical relevance for the country's future. The continuous lifelong education of students and adults is the prime engine for the establishment of a civil culture, whereby the care for the environment is integrated with the social and economic aspects of social life. The academic community is in need of support by the business, the local and central administration and the legislative branch with a view to applying education models that go beyond the narrow discipline-oriented training that has been implemented so far. Multidisciplinary integration to achieve a balanced and innovative ecological, social, economic and administrative education and research should be taken up and implemented, given that it is a necessary condition for the provision of a sustainable and safe social development. The aim of this paper is to expose the current commitments taken on by the universities in the country regarding the training of specialists in SD, as well as to identify the opportunities to tackle the challenges they involve.

(Europe Section Alessandro Volta Award) From the Oil Barrel to Reactive Metals: An Approach to the Energy Transition

Our society is facing a millennial challenge to slow down global warming below 2 °C in the long term.[1] Ambitious policy frameworks and policy intentions are a must to achieve this target. In fact, analyzing the status quo, International Energy Agency (IEA) concluded that the related carbon dioxide tra- jectories are not compatible with the climate targets, even if current policy commitments and pledges by governments are implemented.[2,3] The challenging issues are the limited use of renewables, merely considered for power generation, but only marginally addressing other carbon-intensive industrial sectors (e.g., cement, steel, smelting), and the practical reduction of CO2 emissions from the transport sector.Reactive metal-based storage systems are a new alternative to support the clean energy transition. Herein, the cases of Al and Na are presented, both preliminarily fulfilling the constraints regarding sustainability, but employing two rather different processes. Both, the steam combustion of molten Al for H2 and heat production,[4,5] and a new rechargeable battery, which makes use of seawater and sodium as electrodes, show promising round-trip efficiencies.[6] The latter technology also allows CO2-trapping, desalination, Na metal, and chlorine production. It is argued that further research efforts are needed to verify the sustainability and ability of reactive metal-based technologies to compete with other storage technologies.

Exploring Global Climate Policy Futures and Their Representation in Integrated Assessment Models

The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, paved the way for a new hybrid global climate governance architecture with both bottom-up and top-down elements. While governments can choose individual climate goals and actions, a global stocktake and a ratcheting-up mechanism have been put in place with the overall aim to ensure that collective efforts will prevent increasing adverse impacts of climate change. Integrated assessment models show that current combined climate commitments and policies of national governments fall short of keeping global warming to 1.5 °C or 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Although major greenhouse gas emitters, such as China, the European Union, India, the United States under the Biden administration, and several other countries, have made new pledges to take more ambitious climate action, it is highly uncertain where global climate policy is heading. Scenarios in line with long-term temperature targets typically assume a simplistic and hardly realistic level of harmonization of climate policies across countries. Against this backdrop, this article develops four archetypes for the further evolution of the global climate governance architecture and matches them with existing sets of scenarios developed by integrated assessment models. By these means, the article identifies knowledge gaps in the current scenario literature and discusses possible research avenues to explore the pre-conditions for successful coordination of national policies towards achieving the long-term target stipulated in the Paris Agreement.

A gap in nitrous oxide emission reporting complicates long-term climate mitigation

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas (GHG) that also contributes to depletion of ozone in the stratosphere. Agricultural soils account for about 60% of anthropogenic N2O emissions. Most national GHG reporting to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change assumes nitrogen (N) additions drive emissions during the growing season, but soil freezing and thawing during spring is also an important driver in cold climates. We show that both atmospheric inversions and newly implemented bottom-up modeling approaches exhibit large N2O pulses in the northcentral region of the United States during early spring and this increases annual N2O emissions from croplands and grasslands reported in the national GHG inventory by 6 to 16%. Considering this, emission accounting in cold climate regions is very likely underestimated in most national reporting frameworks. Current commitments related to the Paris Agreement and COP26 emphasize reductions of carbon compounds. Assuming these targets are met, the importance of accurately accounting and mitigating N2O increases once CO2 and CH4 are phased out. Hence, the N2O emission underestimate introduces additional risks into meeting long-term climate goals.

Assessment of Land Consolidation Processes from an Environmental Approach: Considerations Related to the Type of Intervention and the Structure of Farms

The process of Land Consolidation (LC) is deemed an important instrument of rural development in many countries, where it contributes to the economic development and viability of their rural areas. This paper aims to analyze three areas of Castilla y León in Northwestern Spain, all having similar agronomic features. The above areas have recently undergone LC processes. This research proves LC can contribute to reducing greenhouse gases (GHG) using the rationalization introduced in the layout of the agrarian exploitations. For this purpose, this paper analyzes the effects of LC actions on the size, shape, and level of scattering of the owners affected and compares the energy consumption in every journey from the exploitation to each plot, as well as the number of row-end turnings within the plots. GHG reductions present significant differences depending on the LC technique carried out, the size of the area consolidated, and the different degrees of intensification of agricultural exploitations. Through the three LC projects analyzed, a reduction in GHG emissions of 23.60% in SA1, 11.46% in SA2, and 9.85% in SA3 would have been obtained. In total, 1067.34 t CO2 of GHG emissions would have been mitigated. In the light of the results obtained, LC can be considered an efficient process in the strategy of GHG reduction, all in line with the current commitments derived from the Paris Agreement. It is also necessary to continue to research the structure and importance of the consumption of fossil fuels in farming and its possible link to emission reduction policies.