Current Climate Conditions Research Articles

‘Liquid’ equilibria. New semantics for public spaces in the Apennines

The proposed contribution investigates the role of public space design for the management and regeneration of the river system in Apennine areas: in an environmental crisis and increasing abandonment scenario, water stands as a central issue of critical discussion, representing a valuable source of livelihood and, at the same time, a potential danger for these territories. Through the selection of some significant experiences, in which architectural and landscape design find in the particular antinomian character of water the opportunity for the construction of new balances in the place, an attempt will be made to identify appropriate regenerative strategies to define the 'liquid' public space as a safe place, through the necessary adaptation to the current environmental and climatic conditions, and as an ecosystem, through the re-signification of the delicate relationship between its anthropic and natural components.

Thermal Forcing Versus Chilling? Misspecification of Temperature Controls in Spring Phenology Models

ABSTRACTBackgroundClimate‐change‐induced shifts in the timing of leaf emergence during spring have been widely documented and have important ecological consequences. However, mechanistic knowledge regarding what controls the timing of spring leaf emergence is incomplete. Field‐based studies under natural conditions suggest that climate‐warming‐induced decreases in cold temperature accumulation (chilling) have expanded the dormancy duration or reduced the sensitivity of plants to warming temperatures (thermal forcing) during spring, thereby slowing the rate at which the timing of leaf emergence is shifting earlier in response to ongoing climate change. However, recent studies have argued that the apparent reductions in temperature sensitivity may arise from artefacts in the way that temperature sensitivity is calculated, while other studies based on statistical and mechanistic models specifically designed to quantify the role of chilling have shown conflicting results.MethodsWe analysed four commonly used combinations of phenology and temperature datasets obtained from remote sensing and ground observations to elucidate whether current model‐based approaches robustly quantify how chilling, in concert with thermal forcing, controls the timing of leaf emergence during spring under current climate conditions.ResultsWe show that widely used modeling approaches that are calibrated using field‐based observations misspecify the role of chilling under current climate conditions as a result of statistical artefacts inherent to the way that chilling is parameterised. Our results highlight the limitations of existing modelling approaches and observational data in quantifying how chilling affects the timing of spring leaf emergence and suggest that decreasing chilling arising from climate warming may not constrain near‐future shifts towards earlier leaf emergence in extra‐tropical ecosystems worldwide.

Assessing the impacts of land use and climate change on the distribution patterns of Ulex europaeus L. (Fabaceae) in the Canary Islands

AbstractBiological invasions are one of the major threats to biodiversity, but their impact is particularly detrimental on oceanic islands like the Canary Archipelago. The common gorse (Ulex europaeus L. (Fabaceae)) is a highly invasive shrub with established populations in Tenerife, the sole island of the archipelago where it is present. Understanding the habitat preferences of U. europaeus is essential for predicting its current and potential future distribution across Tenerife and other Canary Islands, guiding effective local management practices. In 2019 and 2020, we surveyed different populations of U. europaeus in Tenerife, retrieving information on its abundance, presence of other invasive species and most frequent natural and anthropogenic characteristics of the landscape. We used this information to build explanatory and predictive models to identify the key natural and anthropogenic drivers of U. europaeus abundance in Tenerife and estimate the potential distribution of the species across the whole archipelago under current and future climatic conditions. Our findings showed that U. europaeus thrives in humid areas impacted by human activities where other invasive species persist. Both current and future climatic conditions do not support the presence of the species in the more arid islands of the archipelago (i.e., Fuerteventura and Lanzarote), rather highlight that the windwards, and thus more humid, areas of the other islands might support the species also under future warmer climatic scenarios. These findings deepen our understanding of U. europaeus local dynamics and are crucial to inform targeted management strategies to mitigate its impact across the Canary Archipelago and, ultimately, oceanic islands.

Delineation of Groundwater Potential Zones Using Geospatial Techniques. Case Study: Roman City and the Surrounding Area in the Northeastern Region, Romania

Effective groundwater management is crucial under the current climatic conditions, addressing both qualitative and quantitative aspects. An important step in delineating groundwater potential zones involves remote sensing (RS) data and geographic information systems (GISs), facilitating resource assessment, and the implementation of suitable field data management. This study introduces the delineation of potential groundwater zones using seven layers and the Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method. Satty’s Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was employed to rank the seven selected parameters, contributing to the advancement of groundwater research and resource assessment. All seven thematic layers (Rainfall, Geology, Land Use/Land Cover, Drainage Density, Elevation, Slope, and Soil) were prepared and analyzed to delineate groundwater potential zones. The resulting groundwater potential zone map was categorized into four classes, Very Good, Good, Moderate, and Poor, covering areas of 81.53 km2 (45.1%), 56.36 km2 (31.2%), 19.54 km2 (10.8%), and 23.17 km2 (12.8%) of the total area, respectively. The accuracy of the output was validated by comparing it with information on groundwater prospects in the area, and the overall accuracy of the method was approximately 72%. High-yield boreholes were drilled and concentrated in the Very Good groundwater potential zones, while low-yield ones were developed in the Poor areas.

Cold Tolerance Assay Reveals Evidence of Climate Adaptation Among American Elm (Ulmus americana L.) Genotypes

T he American elm (Ulmus americana L.), once a dominant species in North American floodplain forests, has suffered significant population declines due to Dutch elm disease (DED). Despite this, some elms persist, potentially exhibiting disease resistance and climate-adaptive traits that could facilitate restoration. Understanding these traits is crucial for selecting genotypes suited to current and future climatic conditions, particularly in colder regions. This study evaluated the mid-winter cold tolerance of American elm genotypes across a climatic gradient to ascertain evidence of local climate adaptation. We used relative electrolyte leakage (REL) to assess mid-winter cold tolerance of current-year shoots on eleven survivor genotypes from New England and one susceptible, control genotype from Ohio. The lethal temperature, at which 50% of cellular leakage occurs (LT50), was determined and compared with 30-year climate data to identify potential climate adaptation. Genotypes from colder regions exhibited greater cold hardiness, indicating local adaptation to climate. Observed mid-winter LT50 values (−42.8 °C to −37.7 °C) were in excess of the 30-year minimum air temperature, even at the coldest source location. This calls into question whether mid-winter cold tolerance is the critical period for injury to American elm and more attention should be given to environmental conditions that cause de-acclimation to cold. By understanding the adaptive capacity of American elm, managers can better select mother trees for regional seed orchards, ensuring the long-term success of restoration initiatives.

Phenology of the spruce bark beetle Ips typographus in the UK under past, current and future climate conditions

Summary The European spruce bark‐beetle, Ips typographus, is a major pest of Norway spruce across mainland Europe; however, until 2018, it was considered absent from the United Kingdom (UK). The finding of a breeding population of I. typographus in Kent, England, in 2018 and subsequent findings in pheromone traps across the southeast of England, has led to an urgent need to improve understanding of environmental suitability across the UK. Two distinct published phenological models for I. typographus, developed in Sweden and Austria, were adapted for use in the UK and validated against pheromone trap data collected at the original site of infestation and in the surrounding area from 2019 to 2022. Both models captured some, but not all, of the within‐season variation in trap catches. One, the PHENIPS model, more accurately captured early season flight patterns. The climate in the southeast of England is mild enough to facilitate two generations of the beetle, while further north the pest is expected to be univoltine. At high altitude in Scotland, there is insufficient thermal warming within a season for the completion of one annual generation. Phenological modelling does not explain why the pest failed to establish in England prior to 2018 including when a large amount of infested material was imported to sawmills in the 1940s. Under 2 and 3°C global warming scenarios, we might expect to see an increase in potential voltinism across the UK in the next few decades, increasing the risk of large outbreaks of I. typographus were it allowed to establish. Societal impact statementIn 2018, a breeding population of the European spruce bark‐beetle, Ips typographus, was discovered in woodland in southeast England. Ips typographus is a major forest pest in continental Europe; however, despite previous findings at ports and sawmills, this was the first recorded infestation in the UK. The number of generations per year (voltinism) varies with latitude and altitude. Applying a phenological model, we find that the current climate in southern UK could support two generations, while temperature accumulation in parts of Scotland may be insufficient to support one generation. Global warming will increase voltinism and hence the risk of establishment.

The Effect of Climate Change on Indicator Wetland Insects: Predicting the Current and Future Distribution of Two Giant Water Bugs (Hemiptera: Belostomatidae) in South Korea.

Giant water bugs (Hemiptera: Belostomatidae) are top predators in wetland ecosystems, serving as biological indicators of the health of lentic ecosystems and as effective biological control agents for freshwater snails and mosquitoes. This study aimed to predict the current and future distribution of two Korean giant water bugs, Appasus japonicus and Diplonychus esakii, under three climate change scenarios, contributing to the sustainable management of wetland ecosystems in South Korea. Using MaxEnt models, we employed seven climatic and three non-climatic variables to investigate the habitat preferences and distribution patterns of the species. The results revealed that A. japonicus is likely to experience a northward range contraction due to climate change, while D. esakii is predicted to expand its distribution northward without losing its current range. These responses may lead to occupancy turnover between the two species, potentially driving reassembly in aquatic organism community. Elevation was the primary factor influencing the distribution of A. japonicus, whereas annual mean temperature was the most informative variable for D. esakii, both factors derived under the current climate conditions. These findings suggest that both species are highly sensitive to climate change, with potential range shifts toward higher latitudes and elevations. This study provides insights into how climate change could impact two giant water bugs, thereby supporting future efforts to manage and conserve wetland ecosystems in this country.

Global change drives potential niche contraction and range shift of globally threatened African vulture

Human-induced global change poses an increasingly severe threat to biodiversity, with species having limited population sizes being particularly vulnerable. Mapping and modeling the distribution ranges of such species, along with detecting potential range shifts and contractions at both local and regional scales, are essential for developing effective conservation plans. Ruppell's vulture Gyps rueppelli, an ecologically important bird species native to Africa, is experiencing a rapid decline in its range. The purpose of this study is to map and model potential regional spatio-temporal distribution of Ruppell's vulture in Africa, alongside detecting the possibility of the species' range shifts and contractions. A total of 804 rarefied localities were identified where the Ruppell's vulture was the dominant bird species. This study employed the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm to perform species distribution modeling for the Ruppell's vulture. The modeling considered current climate conditions (1970s-2000s) as a baseline, along with two future climate change scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSPs 245 and 585) for two future time periods (2050s and 2070s). The model's performance was evaluated by optimizing settings and examining the Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC-ROC). Among the 13 bioclimatic and anthropogenic variables included in the model, four (isothermality, cropland expansion, anthropogenic biomes, and urban expansion (in order of importance)) emerged as the most influential drivers of Ruppell's vulture regional distribution. All considered Species distribution models (SDMs) achieved high predictive performance, with AUC-ROC values exceeding 0.9.The model predicted a total of approximately 19,453 ha of suitable habitat for Ruppell's vultures in Africa, with East Africa identified as the most prominent region under the current climate scenario. Isothermality (38.8%) was the primary factor influencing Ruppell's vulture distribution, followed by agricultural expansion (29.9%) and anthropogenic biomes (7.2%) in the face of global change. The results reveal considerable future habitat loss (up to 61%) for Ruppell's vultures in the study area, alongside an eastward range shift (longitudinal axis) by the 2050s under projected climate change scenarios. These imply that Ruppell's vultures face imminent population decline and range shift due to significant habitat loss and climate change. Hence, prioritizing the development and implementation of a coordinated conservation program that incorporates captive breeding and assisted migration is critical to save this vulture species in its native African range.

Climate change favors expansion of three Eucalyptus species in China.

Eucalyptus has become one of the most widely planted species in tropical and subtropical regions in China, with important economic, ecological, and social values. However, it is currently unclear how climate change will affect different Eucalyptus species. Therefore, it is urgent to investigate the potential distribution and dynamics of Eucalyptus under current and future climate scenarios. In this study, we analyzed the potential distribution patterns of the three main Eucalyptus species (Eucalyptus grandis, Eucalyptus urophylla, and Eucalyptus tereticornis) under current and future climatic conditions (2041-2060 and 2061-2080) using the optimized MaxEnt model, which integrates a variety of environmental data including climate, topography, soil, and human influence. We also identified the main factors affecting the potential distributions of the three main Eucalyptus species. The model indicated that E. grandis exhibited heightened sensitivity to the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (7.0-20.0 °C) and annual mean temperature (11.9-24.2 °C), whereas E. urophylla displayed heightened sensitivity to precipitation of the warmest quarter (272-1694mm) and annual precipitation (812-2624mm). Conversely, E. tereticornis demonstrated heightened sensitivity to annual mean temperature (12.7-24.5°C) and temperature seasonality (63.8-598.9). Under the current climate, E. tereticornis had the widest suitable distribution area (124.91 × 104 km²), followed by E. grandis (124.89 × 104 km²) and E. urophylla (119.81 × 104 km²). Under future climate change scenarios, the suitable ranges of E. grandis, E. urophylla and E. tereticornis will continue to expand. This study highlights the importance of climate change in Eucalyptus distribution and provides quantified potential distribution maps for three Eucalyptus species under current and future climate conditions in China. This research offers valuable scientific insights pertinent to the management and rational site selection for Eucalyptus plantations.

Tradeoffs between Stand Volume and Understory Vegetation Diversity in Quercus wutaishanica Forests under Climate Change

Natural forests play a crucial role in providing various ecosystem services, including timber production and biodiversity conservation. However, climate change and anthropogenic factors pose a severe threat to competing forest ecosystem services functions. Therefore, to optimize and sustainably utilize competing forest services, tradeoffs are often necessary. This study was conducted in Northwest China to explore tradeoffs aimed at improving the quality of Quercus wutaishanica Mayr natural forests under climate change conditions, focusing on stand volume, timber production, and understory vegetation diversity conservation. Data from 77 field surveys were used to construct a coupled model for stand growth, stand structure, and site conditions. Changes in understory vegetation species number (UVSN) with crown cover were quantified. These models and relationships can be used as tools to estimate tradeoffs. As stand density increased, single-tree volume decreased, whereas timber volume increased. UVSN increased and then decreased with increasing crown cover and was able to maintain a relative maximum at 0.5–0.65. Under the current climatic conditions, the optimum stand densities corresponding to 30, 40, 50, and 60 years were 1390, 1153, 1042, and 871 trees/ha, respectively, to maintain a high UVSN and adequate stand volume. When mean annual temperature rose, stand densities could be reduced to maintain high-quality timber. Although only two major services were considered, the tradeoffs presented in this study can inform future research to improve the quality of natural forests.

Impact of climatic-meteorological conditions on Polish wooden cultural heritage: an example of world heritage sites featuring wooden churches near Krakow

Poland has many wooden churches that require special protection under current climatic conditions. In this study, geographicl, land use, hydrological, climate, and meteorological data were collected for the area under investigation. Taking the six wooden churches near Krakow, a UNESCO World Heritage site, as examples, I qualitatively and quantitatively explored the impact of climatic conditions on the cultural heritage sites of Poland. Findings include the following: (i) the region is located at the headwaters of Polish rivers, with higher elevations making it less prone to major floods, thus reducing hydraulic impact on wooden churches; (ii) although the fire risk in the area of the wooden churches studied in this research is relatively low compared with that in Poland as a whole, the buffer zones of the wooden churches consist mainly of forests, grasslands, and farmland, with a low proportion of artificial surfaces and minimal human activity, leading to significant fire risks, notably, the Church of the Archangel Michael in Binarowa faces the greatest fire risk, with a fire weather index near 50%; (iii) under current climatic conditions, the relative humidity around the wooden churches typically exceeds safe levels for wooden structures year-round, only falling within protective ranges during the summer; (iv) on the basis of historical climate conditions over the past 40 years, the relative humidity in September and total annual precipitation in the study area show a significant increasing trend, indicating that the moisture protection pressure on the wooden churches in the area is expected to increase in the future. Finally, I offer specific guidelines for safeguarding and restoring Poland’s wooden churches, focusing on moisture control, insulation, and drainage. This study is expected to offer potential data and theoretical support for future related work.

Assessment of suitable region of Asparagus cochinchinensis (Lour.) Merr. under different climatic conditions in China by the MaxEnt model and HPLC analysis.

Asparagus cochinchinensis is a member of the Asparagaceae family whose medicinal part is the dried root tuber. The distribution of A. cochinchinensis and its secondary metabolites are closely associated with environmental factors, such as climate and soil properties. By establishing and optimizing a maximum entropy model, we analyzed and predicted the distribution pattern and migration direction of suitable habitats for A. cochinchinensis and determined the main environmental factors affecting the accumulation of secondary metabolites. Under current climatic conditions, the area of suitable habitats for A. cochinchinensis (208.38 × 104 km2) accounts for 21.71% of the land area of China, and the areas of lowly, moderately, and highly suitable areas were 64.15 × 104 km2, 113.66 × 104 km2, and 30.57 × 104 km2, respectively. Under future climate scenarios, the total area of suitable habitats hardly changes. The area of highly suitable habitats significantly decreases under the SSP1-RCP2.6 scenario (to 83.22% of the current value) and the SSP3-RCP7 scenario (to 48.94% of the current value), but eventually increases to 112.86% of the current value under the SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario, which indicates that A. cochinchinensis might adapt better to a high-carbon-emissions scenario. Under different climate scenarios, low-impact areas mainly occur in southern China and will correspond 92.07% of the current suitable area. Highly suitable habitats primarily occur in the southeastern Sichuan Basin, northern Guangxi, eastern Guizhou, and western Hunan. HPLC analysis showed that the content of protodioscin (0.373%) and protogracillin (0.044%) in S2 was the highest. The total saponins contents of S1 and S2 were the highest, which were 35.6586 and 33.1262 mg/g, respectively. The total polysaccharide content of S9 was the highest (16.9467%). The total contents of saponins and polysaccharides in A. cochinchinensis were significantly, but oppositely, correlated with temperature, precipitation, and other factors. This study has identified environmental factors affecting the growth and quality of A. cochinchinensis, which has guiding significance for resource conservation and site selection for large-scale cultivation.

Global at-risk basins of socio-ecological impacts from water scarcity

Water scarcity has been increasingly impacting social and ecological systems in the context of climate change. The United Nations water conference, convened in March 2023, calls for governing water and addressing climate change in tandem to co-achieve related sustainable development goals. However, the actual (water scarcity under current climate conditions) and potential (potential water scarcity under climate change) impacts of water scarcity on these systems are rarely assessed on a global scale. Herein, we developed a framework that integrates water scarcity and climate sensitivity to assess the socio-ecological vulnerability of global basins. We found that basins that already experience water scarcity exhibit a disproportionate magnitude of climate sensitivity, exacerbating the challenges associated with managing water resources. We identified the at-risk basins by integrating socio-ecological vulnerability and found that the most at-risk basins (n = 21), which collectively accommodate 500 hundred million inhabitants, are mainly located in developing countries, implying the urgent need of international cooperation for reducing these vulnerabilities. Current Integrated Water Resources Management and Climate Change Adaptation may not be enough to alleviate the water crisis and to adapt to climate change in these at-risk basins, we thus urge policy makers in at-risk regions to integrate integrated water resources management and climate change adaptation measures to synergistically achieve related sustainable goals.

Erosion anisotropy analysis of construction materials as a key tool for strengthening preventive conservation strategies in built heritage

In this paper, we present an innovative Erosion Anisotropy Analysis as a pioneering tool to discern the most harmful hydrometerological agents and their predominant directions of impact on built heritage. The proposed Erosion Anisotropy Analysis includes: 1) the analysis of weathering, bio-weathering and erosion processes affecting the building materials; 2) analysis of climatic series identifying preferential directionality of hydrometeorological agents; 3) erosion quantification using photogrammetric models; and 4) comparative analysis between both erosion and climatic anisotropy models.The proposed analysis is applied to the Cerrillos Tower (Almería, Spain), which is considered a paradigmatic case study due to their location and exposure conditions. Results determinate the primary vulnerability directions against hydrometeorological agents (N200–330°E) and highlight solar radiation, wind and wind-driven rain as the most damaging factors. Moreover, the Erosion Anisotropy Analysis describes the erosion patterns developed as well as their anisotropic distribution in the Tower.The proposed methodology is a benchmark for designing and dimensioning effective preventive measures to mitigate their impact under current climatic conditions as well as to prevent future scenarios within the global framework of climate change.

Tree Germination Sensitivity to Increasing Temperatures: A Global Meta‐Analysis Across Biomes, Species and Populations

ABSTRACTAimClimate change is altering forest communities at an unprecedented pace. Current knowledge on trees' responses to climate shifts is based mostly on adults. Yet, germination traits and intraspecific variation can notably modulate species niches. This paper provides a quantitative review about warming effects on tree species' germination, the role of population effects and its implications under future climate.LocationGlobal; covering boreal, temperate, Mediterranean and tropical–subtropical biomes.Time Period1996–2024.Major Taxa StudiedTree species.MethodsWe reviewed 50 papers addressing 63 species and 250 populations. Then, we conducted a meta‐analysis to assess warming effects on germination percentage and time, and how germination is modulated by climate at seed origin. We further evaluated populations' adaptation to local temperature on 27 species. Finally, we estimated population‐based germination niches in eight of these species under current climate conditions and a 2080 climate scenario (SSP5‐8.5).ResultsWarming induced more consistent shifts in germination time than in percentage across biomes, hastening germination. Temperature at seed origin shaped responses to warming in boreal and temperate species. In Mediterranean and tropical–subtropical species, different responses were associated with variation in precipitation‐related variables. Local adaptation was more frequent in species from the tropics, while adaptation lags towards warmer‐than‐today conditions observed in the other biomes. Simulation of germination niches yielded slight although extensive germination reductions in tropical–subtropical species under future climate, whereas the temperate and boreal ones showed overall increases.Main ConclusionsPopulation‐level adjustments are key moderators of germination percentage and phenology response to warming. Their roles vary depending on the prevailing climate in each biome. Temperature at seed origin is an important factor modulating temperate and boreal species' responses, while precipitation‐related variables are more relevant in Mediterranean and tropical–subtropical ones. Local adaptation in the tropical species increases their vulnerability to warming.

Mapping Species Distributions of Latoia consocia Walker under Climate Change Using Current Geographical Presence Data and MAXENT (CMIP 6).

Latoia consocia Walker is an important phytophagous pest that has rapidly spread across North China in recent years, posing a severe threat to related plants. To study the impact of climatic conditions on its distribution and to predict its distribution under current and future climate conditions, the MaxEnt niche model and ArcGIS 10.8 software were used. The results showed that the MaxEnt model performs well in predicting the distribution of L. consocia, with an AUC value of 0.913. The annual precipitation (Bio12), the precipitation of the driest month (Bio14), the temperature annual range (Bio7), and the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6) are key environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of L. consocia. Under current climate conditions, L. consocia has a highly suitable growth area of 2243 km2 in China, among which Taiwan has the largest high-suitable area with a total area of 1450 km2. With climate warming, the potential habitat area for L. consocia shows an overall decreasing trend in future. This work provides a scientific basis for research on pest control and ecological protection. A "graded response" detection and early warning system, as well as prevention and control strategies, can be developed for potentially suitable areas to effectively address this pest challenge.

Potentially suitable geographical area for Colletotrichum acutatum under current and future climatic scenarios based on optimized MaxEnt model.

Global climate warming has led to changes in the suitable habitats for fungi. Colletotrichum acutatum, a common fungus causing anthracnose disease, is widely distributed in southern China. Currently, research on the relationship between C. acutatum and environmental warming was limited. In this study, MaxEnt and ArcGIS software were used to predict the suitable habitats of C. acutatum under current and future climate conditions based on its occurrence records and environmental factors. The optimal MaxEnt model parameters were set as feature combination (FC) = lp and regularization multiplier (RM) = 2.6. Bio15, Bio12, Bio09, and Bio19 were identified as the main environmental factors influencing the distribution of C. acutatum. Under current climate conditions, C. acutatum was distributed across all continents globally, except Antarctica. In China, C. acutatum was primarily distributed south of the Qinling-Huaihe Line, with a total suitable area of 259.52 × 104 km2. Under future climate conditions, the potential suitable habitat area for C. acutatum was expected to increase and spread towards inland China. The results of this study provided timely risk assessment for the distribution and spread of C. acutatum in China and offer scientific guidance for monitoring and timely controlled of its distribution areas.

Responses of potential double cropping areas expansion and appropriate crop management practices to climate change in northern China

IntroductionGlobal climate change has led to increases in the temperature and decreases in the number of frost days in northern China, facilitating a shift from a single cropping system (SCS, spring maize) to a double cropping system (DCS, winter wheat-summer maize rotation).MethodsTherefore, under the current climate conditions, DCS expansion should be evaluated, and new planting schemes should be explored. In this paper, we identified the areas with potential for DCS in northern China considering an annual accumulated temperature of >0°C. The World Food Studies simulation model was used to simulate the yield, irrigation requirement (IR), and net income under various crop management conditions when considering the maximum yield and water use efficiency (WUE) of crops.ResultsOur results indicated that the potential DCS area increased by approximately 31.51 × 104 km2 in northern China, with the primary DCS areas being located in the provinces of Gansu, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hebei, and Liaoning. Regarding variety selection, winter wheat and summer maize varieties with early and mid-early maturation were found to be favored for the potential DCS areas. The sowing dates corresponding to the maximum WUEs of the crops were later than those corresponding to the maximum yields. In the potential DCS areas, under the maximum yield condition, the average unit total yield, IR, and net income increased to 2700 kg ha−1, 305 mm, and 607 USD ha−1, respectively, whereas under the maximum WUE condition, increases of 2862 kg ha−1, 284 mm, and 608 USD ha−1, respectively, were observed. The average unit total yield of the DCS was 15927 and 13793 kg ha−1 under the maximum yield and maximum WUE condition, respectively.DiscussionOur findings may clarify the effects of climate change on agricultural production patterns and indicate suitable crop management practices.

Reconstructing the biological invasion of noxious invasive weed Parthenium hysterophorus and invasion risk assessment in China.

Invasive alien plants (IAPs) present a severe threat to native ecosystems and biodiversity. Comprehending the potential distribution patterns of these plant invaders and their responses to climate change is essential. Parthenium hysterophorus, native to the Americas, has become an aggressively invasive species since its introduction to China in the 1930s. This study aims to collect and reconstruct the historical occurrence and invasion of P. hysterophorus. Using the optimal MaxEnt model, the potential geographical distributions of P. hysterophorus were predicted based on screened species occurrences and environmental variables under the current and three future scenarios in the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s (i.e., SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5), and the invasion risk of P. hysterophorus in Chinese cities, croplands, forests, and grasslands was assessed. The results show that: (1) The species initially invaded highly suitable areas and further spread to regions with non-analogous climate conditions. (2) Under the current climatic conditions, the overall potential distribution of P. hysterophorus is characterized by more in the southeast and less in the northwest. Climate variables, including mean annual temperature (bio1), precipitation in the wettest month (bio13), isothermality (bio3), and temperature seasonality (bio4), are the primary factors influencing its distribution. (3) The potential distribution of P. hysterophorus will expand further under future climate scenarios, particularly toward higher latitudes. (4) Forests and crop lands are the areas with the most serious potential invasion risk of P. hysterophorus. Therefore, we suggest that the government should strengthen the monitoring and management of P. hysterophorus to prevent its spread and protect agro-ecosystems and human habitats. Depending on the potential risk areas, measures such as quarantine, removal, and publicity should be taken to mitigate the threat of P. hysterophorus invasion and to raise awareness of P. hysterophorus invasion prevention.

Global Distribution Prediction of Cyrtotrachelus buqueti Guer (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) Insights from the Optimised MaxEnt Model.

Cyrtotrachelus buqueti Guer is a major pest affecting bamboo forests economically, causing significant damage to bamboo forests in Sichuan Province, China. To understand how C. buqueti responds to future climate conditions, an optimized Maximum Entropy Model (Maxent) was used to simulate the potential global distribution patterns of C. buqueti under current climate conditions and three different future climate scenarios and to analyze the dominant factors influencing its distribution. The results indicate that Bio18 (precipitation of the warmest quarter), Bio04 (temperature seasonality), Bio06 (minimum temperature of the coldest month), and Bio02 (mean diurnal temperature range) are the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of this species. The global area of high-suitability habitats for C. buqueti is 9.00 × 104 km2, primarily distributed in China. Under three different future climate scenarios, there are varying degrees of expansion in both the total suitable habitat and the medium-suitability areas for C. buqueti. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the medium-suitability area of the species increases the most, reaching 9.83 × 104 km2. Additionally, these findings can serve as a reference for developing and implementing control strategies, assisting relevant authorities in more effectively managing and controlling this pest, and mitigating its potential threats to bamboo forest ecosystems and economies.