Current Climate Conditions Research Articles

Adapting the grassland model BASGRA to simulate yield and nutritive value of whole-crop barley

Ensiling of whole-crop biomass of barley before full maturity is common practice in regions with a short growing season. The developmental stage of barley at harvest can have a large impact on yield and nutritive composition. The relationships between crop growth, environmental conditions and crop management can be described in process-based simulation models. Some models, including the Basic Grassland (BASGRA) model, have been developed to simulate the yield and nutritive value of forage grasses, and usually evaluated against metrics of relevance for whole-crop silage. The objectives of this study were to: i) modify the BASGRA model to simulate whole-crop spring barley; ii) evaluate the performance of this model against empirical data on dry matter (DM) yield and nutritive value attributes from field experiments, divided into geographical regions; and iii) evaluate DM yield, nutritive value and cutting date under current and future climate conditions for three locations in Sweden and four cutting regimes. Main model modifications included addition of a spike pool, equations for carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) allocation to the spike pool and equations for C and N translocation from vegetative plant parts to spikes. Model calibration and validation against field trial data from Sweden, including samples harvested from late anthesis stage to hard dough stage that were either pooled or divided into regions, showed better prediction accuracy, evaluated as normalised root mean squared error (RMSE), of neutral detergent fibre (NDF) (7.58–18.4%) than of DM yield (16.8–27.8%), crude protein (15.5–23.2%) or digestible organic matter in the DM (DOMD) (12.0–22.2%). Model prediction using weather data representing 1990–2020 and 2021–2040 climate conditions for three locations in Sweden (Skara, Umeå, Uppsala) showed lower DM yield, earlier harvest and slightly higher NDF concentration on average (across locations and developmental stage at cutting) when using near-future climate data rather than historical data. The model can be used to evaluate whole-crop barley performance under production conditions in Sweden or in other countries with similar climate, soils and crop management regimes.

Organic soils in Southeastern Brazilian highlands: formation and relations to vegetation history

Well-drained organic soils form in distinctive highland environments in contrast to wetland organic soils. Similar to the concept of endemic soils, they are restricted to specific geographic areas due to a unique combination of soil-forming factors. In this contribution, we aim to improve the pedological knowledge of the Brazilian highlands, focusing on well-drained organic soils. The objective was to propose a soil formation scheme for the study area, combining traditional techniques and paleoenvironmental reconstruction (phytoliths, isotypes, dating). Organic soils were formed by litter accumulation in two pedoenvironments: (1) directly on bedrock in the high-elevation grasslands, by the processes of addition and transformation of the litter, which constitute the parent material from these soils; and (2) in upper-montane forests, with organic horizons formed above mineral horizons. In both conditions, the cold and humid climate and vegetation (organisms) are the main soil-forming factors, reducing organic matter decomposition, and influencing the physical and chemical soil properties. Phytolith records and isotopic composition of soil organic matter indicated four environmental phases: Phase I (before ∼18,9k yr BP). A cooler and drier climate than present, with predominance of subtropical grassland vegetation and fire events; Phase II (∼18,9k yr BP to ∼11,1k yr BP). A slightly increase of humidity, decrease of fire events, and expansion of forest formations, with rare presence of Araucaria angustifolia; Phase III (from ∼11,1k years BP) increase in humidity, the establishment of current climate conditions (cold and humid climate, typical of Southeastern Brazilian highlands), and significant presence of Araucaria in upper-montane forests; Phase IV (present) environmental changes related to increased fire events, reduction of Araucaria and increase of Bambusoid, Arecaceae and C4 plants, possibly resulted from human activities. This contribution enhances the understanding of well-drained organic soils in the Southeastern Brazilian highlands, showing their unique formation under cold and humid climates, influenced by vegetation history and environmental phases, as revealed through phytolith records, isotopic composition, and dating.

THE DETERMINATION OF THE MOST OPTIMAL METHODS FOR THE IRRIGATION OF CROPS ON DIFFERENT SOIL TYPES

Climate change due to multiple pollution problems (forest clearing, overgrazing, motor vehicle emissions, construction expansion, etc.), has led to increased global average temperature and reduced rainfall. Under these conditions, the mineralization of organic matter is intensified, the activity of soil microorganisms is reduced and implicitly decreases soil trophicity. These aspects further show the need to apply irrigation in the agricultural sector, rationalysing water, managing it and recommending the best methods of water distribution, on soils with different textural classes. In this regard, research was carried out on water permeability, on soils formed in different pedo-climatic conditions. Thus, three soil profiles were opened, in the Tecuci Plain, on a typical arenosoil, in the Dobrogea Plateau, on a calcaric chernozem and in the Gavanu-Burdea Plain on a chromic luvisol. Soil profiles were characterized morphologically and physico-chemically, soil samples were collected both in natural and modified settlement (metal cylinders). The physico-chemical analyses for the three soil types were determined within INCDPA laboratories Bucharest. Based on soil samples collected in metal cylinders, water permeability was determined using the ratio between the thickness of the soil horizon and the time of water infiltration. Depending on the permeability of the soil on the three different soil types, the most suitable and economical watering methods for the current climatic conditions have been established and recommended.

Uvological characteristics of local grapevine varieties: Smederevka and Zametovka

Research of uvological characteristics is one of the obligatory steps for determination of general production and technological value of grapevine varieties. Such research is particularly recommended for local varieties that did not previously show sat?isfying characteristics necessary for production of high-quality wine. Local grapevine varieties Smederevka (white wine variety) and Zametovka (red wine variety) have mostly served for production of low-quality wine in the past. With changes in the manner of pro?duction in the sense of focus on high-quality wine and production of wine with geograph?ical indications, vineyards planted with these varieties in Serbia have mostly been grubbed up. However, due to the characteristic and favourable terroir conditions, they have survived in the Trstenik wine-growing district (subregion within the Tri Morave wine-growing re?gion). With the aim of determining uvological characteristics of these two varieties in current climate conditions that are favourable for these high-yield varieties, this paper examines the mechanical composition of grape bunches (bunch weight, number of berries, stem weight), mechanical composition of berries (weight of 100 berries, weight of skin of 100 berries, weight of mesocarp of 100 berries and weight of seeds of 100 berries), as well as grape must characteristics (sugar content and total acids in grape must) of representative genotypes of local varieties Smederevka and Zametovka in production vineyards in the Trstenik wine-growing district. Research results have shown that uvological characteristics of these varieties are slightly better in comparison with previous research carried out in other wine-growing areas, that is, in comparison with general information from literature, which indicates the necessity for further research of these varieties in different agro-eco?logical conditions.

Quantification of the invasiveness risk of non‐native macroalgae in the Azores to support conservation measures

Abstract Non‐native species (NNS) might become invasive and threaten biodiversity, economy and public health. Therefore, it is essential that their invasiveness risk be quantified to support conservation measures. The Azores, located in the mid‐northern Atlantic, is the crossroad of macroalgal native distributions and also present almost three times the global ratio of macroalgae reported as NNS. Aquatic Species Invasiveness Screening Kit, a decision‐support tool consisting of 49 questions for the Basic Risk Assessment (BRA) and six for the Climate Change Assessment (CCA), was applied to the 42 marine macroalgae classified as NNS in the Azores. The results indicate that 21 species pose a medium risk of becoming invasive, and 15 present a high risk under current climate conditions (BRA scores only). The combined BRA + CCA scores show that Laurencia dendroidea poses a high risk instead of a medium risk. Thirty‐three Rhodophyta species were screened, with 10 (BRA) and 11 (BRA + CCA) classified as high risk. All four Chlorophyta species ranked as high risk. Only one of the five Ochrophyta species was classified as high risk, namely Rugulopteryx okamurae, one of the most invasive species in European waters. High‐risk species are present in all islands, likely spread by the continuous maritime traffic between islands. Six of the high‐risk species are restricted to single islands (BRA and BRA + CCA scores), and efforts should be made to contain their further expansion. Asparagopsis armata, a species introduced in Europe in the 1920s, is the only high‐risk species present in all islands. Conservation measures for prevention, monitoring and control of NNS are proposed for the different islands of the Azores, including regulation of introduction pathways, prospection of areas with high risk of invasion, risk screening, eradication and containment of NNS. The involvement of stakeholders and maritime workers is also recommended.

Land degradation neutrality in the Penza region

This study is carried out in order to calculate the neutral balance of the territory of the Penza region using the trend.earth program. In the course of the study, data on current land use, climatic conditions and changes in land cover are collected and analyzed. Using the trend.earth program, modeling of various scenarios of impact on land coverage is carried out in order to determine possible strategies for improving land management in order to achieve a neutral balance. The results of this study can be used to develop practical strategies for the sustainable use of land resources and to reduce the negative impact on the environment in the Penza region. The study of the neutral balance of the territory of the Penza region should take into account the existing rates of change in land cover, including the expansion of agricultural land, loss of forests and changes in water resources. When using the trend.earth program to model possible scenarios, potential impacts on biodiversity, climatic conditions and ecosystem sustainability should also be taken into account. The results of this study will identify potential locations for forest restoration, optimization of agricultural land use and other strategies to achieve a neutral balance in land management. The study will also provide important information for the development of practical recommendations for the sustainable development of the region. In addition, the assessment of the neutral balance of land use using trend.earth will allow assessing potential scenarios of changes in land cover in the context of climate change and economic development. This will allow factors such as carbon stocks, biodiversity conservation and ecosystem sustainability to be taken into account when developing land management strategies.

Using landscape genomics to assess local adaptation of fruit trees to current and future climatic conditions

Using landscape genomics to assess local adaptation of fruit trees to current and future climatic conditions

Development of a hybrid timber and aluminum based unitized façade system resilient to the future weather conditions in Europe via monitoring campaigns and computational models

The StaticusCare project aims to develop a hybrid timber and aluminum unitized façade system (HUF) equipped with a predictive maintenance system (PMS) for Nordic climates, which will be based on the digital twin concept and fed by an Internet-of-Things system. The use of timber in the structure elements of the façade system aims to reduce the typical system's CO2 footprint by 70–75 %, and the non-renewable energy consumption by 53–56 %. Nonetheless, ensuring that this novel system is durable in the Nordic current and future climate conditions is necessary. For this purpose, the HUF system will be installed in a two-floor building, monitored by a multi-sensor campaign, and replicated computationally to assess the energy use and indoor environmental quality, as well as the hygrothermal performance of the building elements for contemporary climate and under various climate change scenarios. The maintenance of the buildings with the façade system installed will be based on a PMS that is backed by an open-source python heat, air, and moisture transport (HAM) software. This one-dimensional software will be validated using a commercial one. To analyze specific problems, such as air infiltration and moisture entrapment, a two-dimensional HAM model will also be developed. In addition, building energy simulations will be performed to test several parameters affecting the indoor climate quality and energy use. Finally, the current outdoor weather files for the HAM simulations will be built based on multi-year datasets following the ISO 15927-4 methodology and the Perez model, whilst the future weather files will be based on multi-year datasets following the same methodology for two future scenarios. This multi-step methodology will allow to thoroughly test and design the HUF façade system whilst minimizing the risk, e.g., mold growth, for current and future conditions.

Energy Performance and Thermal Comfort Assessment of an Educational Building in Northern Italy: The Importance of Climatic Files in Energy Simulations

Energy efficiency and thermal and acoustic comfort play crucial roles in the design and management of educational buildings. The literature underscores their influence on students’ and teachers’ well-being and productivity. Additionally, numerous works emphasise the growing environmental awareness among children attending sustainably designed or adapted buildings. In light of these considerations, the present study aims to evaluate the dynamic energy performance of a school located in Northern Italy, conceived as a Nearly Zero Energy Building (NZEB). The school integrates various technologies, intelligent systems, and renewable sources to reduce energy requirements. A second aspect under evaluation involves using both real and virtual anemometers to generate crucial weather data for energy simulations. Dynamic analyses often rely on traditional meteorological year (Typical Meteorological Year) datasets derived from outdated sources, leading to inaccuracies in representing current climatic conditions, especially in the case of results related to a specific period.

What explains the high island endemicity of Philippine Rafflesia? A species distribution modeling analysis of three threatened parasitic plant species and their hosts.

Rafflesia are rare holoparasitic plants. In the Philippines, all but one species are found only on single islands. This study aimed to better understand the factors contributing to this distributional pattern. Specifically, we sought to determine whether narrow environmental tolerances of host and/or parasite species might explain their island endemicity. We used Maxent species distribution modeling to identify areas with suitable habitat for R. lagascae, R. lobata, and R. speciosa and their Tetrastigma host species. These analyses were carried out for current climate conditions and two future climate change scenarios. Although species distribution models indicated suitable environmental conditions for the Tetrastigma host species in many parts of the Philippines, considerably fewer areas were inferred to have suitable conditions for the three Rafflesia species. Some of these areas are on islands from which they have not been reported. All three species will face significant threats as a result of climate change. Our results suggest that limited inter-island dispersibility and/or specific environmental requirements are likely responsible for the current pattern of island endemicity of the three Rafflesia species, rather than environmental requirements of their Tetrastigma host species.

Quel prédiction écologique pour Cola nitida: une espèce fruitière spontanée du Benin

The variation of climatic parameters influences the distribution of several indigenous fruit species in Benin. This research evaluates the spatio-temporal dynamics of favorable habitats to the cultivation of Cola nitida under current climatic conditions and by 2085 in Benin. To do this, 230 occurrences of C. nitida were combined with the environmental layers using the MaxEnt algorithm in order to highlight its favorable habitats. The AUC (0.969) and SEDI (0.918) results suggest a very good performance of the model. The precipitation of the driest quarter (43.6%) and the maximum temperature of warmest month (41.8%) are the variables that most influenced the geographical distribution of C. nitida in Benin. More than 87% of the national territory remains less favorable to the conservation of C. nitida. Very favorable habitats went from 5.21% (present climatic conditions) to 1.29% (RCP 4.5) i.e., a loss of 3.92%, and occupy only 0.16% of the national territory (RCP 8.5) either a regression of 5.05%. Furthermore, the priority conservation habitats resilient to climate change occupy only 9.69% of the territory. Thus, it is important to implement reforestation projects in priority natural habitats resilient to climate change (classified forest of Pahou, Ouèdo, Djigbé, Itchèdè-Toffo, Niaouli and the reforestation perimeter of Abomey) which are entirely suitable for the conservation of C. nitida. The promotion of C. nitida in agroforestry parks should be encouraged for sustainable production and management.

Precipitation Assessment of Kabul City from 2006-2020

Assessment of precipitation conditions is a crucial factor in determining an area's current and future climatic conditions. This study investigates precipitation conditions in Kabul City from 2006 to 2020, covering the last 15 years. Research shows that 50% of precipitation occurs in the winter season in Kabul and varies from year to year. The trend line of precipitation has shown a minimal increase of 0.64mm/yr, which is insufficient due to the dense urban population's high-temperature increase and daily water usage. The study aims to assess the precipitation conditions in Kabul for the past 15 years. For this purpose, climatic data from the Afghanistan Meteorological Department (AMD) and daily precipitation data were analyzed. Standard deviation equations were applied to determine the dry and wet years from the average (normal) year. The analysis of the precipitation data demonstrated two periods of severe droughts and one moderate rainy period. The first severe drought occurred from 2007 to 2008, the second period of severe drought occurred from 2016 to 2018, and one moderate rainy period occurred from 2011 to 2014. The results indicate that Kabul City's precipitation is not enough due to the usage of groundwater by the dense urban population, car wash companies, public baths, and the recent establishment of too many greenhouses in the suburbs of Kabul City. Consequently, the water balance is negative, leading to a shortage. Understanding the precipitation condition of Kabul City and its trends over the past 15 years is crucial for policymakers and stakeholders when making decisions on water resources management, agriculture, food production, and environmental challenges incorporation projects. This research provides valuable information that can support evidence-based decision-making to address the challenges posed by the changing climate patterns in Afghanistan.

Impact of Climate Change on the Habitat Suitability of Monochamus saltuarius Gebler (Coleoptera; Cerambycidae) and Its Natural Enemies in China

The longicorn beetle Monochamus saltuarius (Coleoptera; Cerambycidae) is an insect vector that transmits the pine wood nematode Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, a serious issue in pine forests in China, Japan, and South Korea. Dastarcus helophoroides and Scleroderma guani are effective in controlling M. saltuarius. However, the application of these parasites for the direct control of vector insects requires detailed analyses of the suitability of the selected natural enemies in potential pest areas, particularly under climate change. Based on species distribution records as well as the current and projected climate change trends up to 2050, we utilized an optimized Maxent algorithm to predict the potential distribution patterns of M. saltuarius and its natural enemies in China. Furthermore, we estimated Schoener’s D to quantify the overlap in adaptability between M. saltuarius and its natural enemies. The potentially suitable areas predicted under the current climate conditions were concentrated mainly in northeast and north China. Additional suitable areas were detected in central, eastern, northwestern, and southwestern China. Under future climate conditions, the suitable range of M. saltuarius gradually shifted southward, with a tendency to expand into high-altitude and colder regions, such as Sichuan, Qinghai, and Tibet. The potential distribution of the natural enemies D. helophoroides and S. guani continued to expand under climate change. A comparison of the appropriate habitats of M. saltuarius and natural enemy insects indicated that D. helophoroides is more suitable for initial biological control in north, northeast, and central China as well as certain northwest and coastal regions. S. guani could be prioritized for nationwide release, while joint control using both species may be effective in Liaoning, Hebei, and Tianjin provinces. These analyses demonstrate that future climate change is likely to exert adverse effects on the potential distribution of M. saltuarius but is favorable for the potential distributions of natural enemies. This study offers important insights into the effective control of M. saltuarius and provides an experimental basis for the utilization of natural enemies according to the characteristics of different regions.

ClimShift – A new toolbox for the detection of climate change

AbstractClimate change no longer involves and affects just a few people or communities. However, most of them need climate change detection studies to adapt to the current and future climate conditions efficiently. The present research aimed to detect climate changes by considering the shift in climate conditions from one region to another over different periods based on a similarity index in the Carpathians basin using the new ClimShift toolbox, specially created for this purpose. Developed in R, based on the cosine similarity index and using a set of 32 climate indices (temperature and precipitation), ClimShift uses NC raster format (NetCDF files) as input data. The application is compatible with Microsoft and Unix/Linux environments. The toolbox allows the detection of forward and backward climate shifts. The results can be employed as a Climate Service and are extremely helpful for an efficient process of adaption to climate changes at a local/regional scale. A user‐friendly interface and a tutorial on how to use the toolbox are also available. The toolbox was tested for four locations in the Carpathians Basin (Vienna, Bekes, Cluj‐Napoca and Kosice) using 1961–1990 as a base period and 1991–2021 as an analysis period for the forward climate shift analysis. For Cluj‐Napoca, the application was also tested for the backward climate shift, using 1991–2021 as the base period and 1961–1990 as the analysis period, identifying the region where present climate conditions were specific during the older period. The scientific results indicated a significant shift towards the east and northeast from the older period to the most recent one and a low percentage (6%–10%) in the overlapping area with highly similar conditions between the two periods.

Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Trends in Selected Polish Cities Based on the Results of Regional EURO-CORDEX Climate Models in the 2030–2050 Horizon

This study presents the potential impacts of climate change in 49 Polish cities by analyzing seven climate indicators. The analysis was carried out for the following three horizons: the current climate conditions (an average period spanning 2006 to 2015), near-future conditions (an average period spanning 2026 to 2035), and future conditions (an average period spanning 2046 to 2055). Climate indices were computed with bias-corrected EURO-CORDEX model ensembles from two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The systematic error was reduced using the quantile mapping method with a non-parametric approach of robust empirical quantiles (RQUANT). Data were used as references in the period of current climate conditions, and those required for bias correction consisted of historical ground-based observations provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management. The analysis encompassed various key climate indices, including the annual average temperature, the count of hot days, cold days, and frost days, the cumulative annual precipitation, the frequency of days with precipitation, and instances of extreme precipitation (defined as the days with precipitation exceeding 10 mm/day). These findings reveal a noteworthy rise in the average annual temperature of approximately 1 °C and an uptick in the number of hot days by 3.7 days. Conversely, a decline in the number of cold days by approximately 19 days and frost days by 8 days was observed. Additionally, there was an augmentation in the annual precipitation sum, reaching up to 80 mm in RCP 8.5, accompanied by an increase in the number of days with precipitation (up by 3.3 days) and days with extreme precipitation (up by 2 days).

Limited influence of air temperature and precipitation on six-year survival and growth of non-native tree species in a Central European multi-site field trial

The biggest challenge for forest management in the near future will be the silvicultural adaptation of forests on sites where climate change will increase the risk for drought induced tree mortality and for a decrease of the growth performance. One management option is the diversification by promoting climate change adapted non-native tree species. Currently, we have in depth experience with only a few non-native tree species in Central Europe. Other tree species that may complement the species pool in Central Europe need to be carefully selected by a range of criteria. Before establishing larger silvicultural experiments at stand-level, the suitability of species to grow well with a low risk of failure under expected future climatic conditions as well as a good performance already today should be tested, amongst other aspects. We present results of a multi-site common garden experiment where growth and survival of five non-native tree species (Abies bornmuelleriana, Cedrus libani, Fagus orientalis, Tilia tomentosa, and Tsuga heterophylla) and one climate adapted local native species per site are tested in five field trials in Austria, Germany and Switzerland along a temperature (7.9–10.4 °C mean annual Temperature) and precipitation (490–1147 mm annual precipitation) gradient. Each species was replicated on three plots per site using a block-wise design. Lower survival and growth of the non-native species as the native reference on most sites indicate that the studied non-native species are today not as well adapted to current climatic conditions as native species. However, the performance of the non-native species was sufficiently high to justify further trials. Survival and growth rates were mostly equally high on the two sites at the opposing ends of the temperature and humidity gradient and lower on all other sites. Height growth and survival were only marginally affected by the strong summer drought in 2018 in all except one site, presumably due to the low water storage capacity of the sandy soils on this site. This indicates that the tested non-native tree species grow well in the wide range of climatically changing weather conditions from our transnational study sites across Central Europe. So far, the tested tree species did not reach their climatic growth limitation. However, edaphic site conditions may have influenced the performance of the tested non-native species as well and must be considered when discussing the suitability of these tree species.

Predicting the Distribution of the Invasive Species Atractosteus spatula, the Alligator Gar, in China

The Alligator Gar (Atractosteus spatula) is a very dangerous species that has an extremely destructive impact on the ecological environment in aquatic areas. As a kind of ornamental fish, it is spreading rapidly all over the world. In order to avoid or delay the spread of Alligator Gar in China, it is urgent to further monitor and clarify its distribution range within the country. In this study, a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and geographical information system (ArcGIS) were used to identify suitable regions under climate change scenarios in China, and the significance of environmental factors that shape this species’ distribution were evaluated. According to the geographical distribution data of Alligator Gar and selected environmental variables, the potential habitat area of Chinese Alligator Gar under four climate scenarios in the present (2000s) and future (2050s and 2070s) was predicted. (1) The main environmental variables affecting the potential geographical distribution of Alligator Gar are temperature factor variables (the mean temperature of the warmest quarter and the mean temperature of the coldest quarter), precipitation factor variables (precipitation in the driest month and in the driest quarter), and altitude. (2) Under the current climate conditions, the suitable breeding areas of Alligator Gar are mainly concentrated in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Guangdong Province, and Hainan Province. Under the four future climate scenarios, the distribution area of the total suitable area of Alligator Gar will gradually decrease, and the suitable area of Alligator Gar will spread to high latitudes.

Increasing efficiency of irrigation reclamation in potato and soybean agrocenoses using sludge

The purpose of the study was to assess effect of different doses of wastewater sludge on productivity of irrigation water use by agrocenoses of potatoes (Zhukovsky rannii) and soybeans (VNIIOZ 31), on their yield, as well as the index of soil contamination and seed production. Agrometeorological conditions of the periods of vegetation experiments are characterized as dry with hydrothermal coefficient value of no more than 0.39. Considering the current climatic conditions, regulations for watering potatoes and soybeans were drawn up. It was established that application of WWS in doses of 20, 40 and 60 tha-1 had different effects on crops total water consumption. In potato crops, irrigation rate varied from 2590 m3ha-1 in the control to 1850 m3ha-1 in WWS60 variant, and in soybean crops, it varied from 3700 in the control to 2960 m3ha-1 in WWS60 variant. At the same time, amount of irrigation water to obtain a ton of potato and soybean yield in the control averaged 124.5 and 1298.2 m3t-1, respectively, against 118.372.8 and 1213.1886.2 m3t-1 for variants WWS20, WWS40 and WWS60, which corresponded to increase in water use productivity from 5.0 to 41.5 % and from 6.6 to 31.7 %, respectively. Laboratory studies of soil samples of the arable layer showed that pollution index in relation to heavy metals Cd, Pb, Zn, Cu varies from 2.54 in variant WWS20 to 4.04 in variant WWS60, which indicates the absence of soil contamination. Evaluation of potato tubers for values of starch, dry matter, nitrates and heavy metals demonstrates sufficiently high quality and acceptable level of contamination of the seeds.

Bark beetle damage in Norwegian forests: a study of model suitability and projected impact under climate change

ABSTRACT Bark beetle (Ips typographus) outbreaks have the potential to damage large areas of spruce-dominated forests in Scandinavia. To define forest management strategies that will minimize the risk of bark beetle attacks, we need robust models that link forest structure and composition to the risk and potential damage of bark beetle attacks. Since data on bark beetle infestation rates and corresponding damages does not exist in Norway, we implement a previously published meta-model for estimating I. typographus damage probability and intensity. Using both current and projected climatic conditions we used the model to estimate damage inflicted by I. typographus in Norwegian spruce stands. The model produces feasible results for most of Norway’s climate and forest conditions, but a revised model tailored to Norway should be fitted to a dataset that includes older stands and lower temperatures. Based on current climate and forest conditions, the model predicts that approximately nine percent of productive forests within Norway’s main spruce-growing region will experience a loss ranging from 1.7 to 11 m3/ha of spruce over a span of five years. However, climate change is predicted to exacerbate the annual damage caused by I. typographus, potentially leading to a doubling of its detrimental effects.

Modelling the current and future distribution potential areas of Peperomia abyssinica Miq., and Helichrysum citrispinum Steud. ex A. Rich. in Ethiopia

BackgroundThe aim of this study is to investigate how climate change influences the distribution of economically and environmentally important species of P. abyssinica and H. citrispinum in Ethiopia. The species distribution modeling intends to forecast species' ecological niche ranges and habitat suitability by employing a variety of environmental parameters as predictors, which is vital for conservation planning and restoration success. Six representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 for the years 2050 and 2070) with the same resolution of 2.5 min that shows the emission scenarios were used for the prediction. To predict the current and future distributions of H. citrispinum and P. abyssinica 56 and 45 occurrence records from National Herbarium, Addis Ababa University, GBIF, and available literatures were used respectively.ResultsThe MaxEnt model predicted habitat suitability for H. citrispinum species with an Area Under Curve (AUC) value of 0.961 ± 0.027, and 0.809 ± 0.045 for P. abyssinica, indicating excellent discriminatory ability or accuracy under the current climate scenario. The Future distribution of suitable habitat for both H. citrispinum and P. abyssinica plant species was accurately predicted with AUC values of 0.960 ± 0.017 and 0.780 ± 0.35, respectively under future climatic scenarios. The jackknife test result indicates that environmental variables such as topographic position index (92.5%), precipitation of the driest quarter (3%) and precipitation in the coldest quarter (1.8%) are associated with the distributions of H. citrispinum, while topographic position index (36.6%), precipitation of driest quarter (21.4%), precipitation of warmest quarter (16.2%) and precipitation seasonality (13.9%) were found to be limiting environmental variables for P. abyssinica under current and future climatic conditions in Ethiopia. The prediction map and interception calculation for both present and projected (in the 2050s and again in the 2070s) climate change scenarios indicate significant habitat loss, decreased, and fragmentation under all RCPs (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) scenarios for P. abyssinica while habitat gain, and increasing for H. citrispinum in Ethiopia.ConclusionsTopographic position index (TPI) is the most impactful predictor variable on the distribution of the two species. Consequently, potentially habitable areas (with diverse aspects and slopes) are increasing for H. citrispinum while decreasing for P. abyssinica.