Current Calendar Research Articles

From Fixed‐Event to Fixed‐Horizon Density Forecasts: Obtaining Measures of Multihorizon Uncertainty from Survey Density Forecasts

AbstractThe U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters produces precise and timely point forecasts for key macro‐economic variables. However, the accompanying density forecasts are mostly conducted for “fixed events.” For example, in each quarter, panelists predict output growth and inflation for the current calendar year and the next, hence the forecast horizon changes with each survey round. This limits the forecasts' usefulness to policymakers, researchers, and market participants. We propose a density combination approach that weights fixed‐event density forecasts, aiming at obtaining a correctly calibrated fixed‐horizon density forecast. We show that our method produces competitive density forecasts relative to widely used alternatives.

Creating an electronic antibiogram using visualization software: Easily updatable and removes the need for yearly manual review

Background: Previously, our hospital manually built a static antibiogram from a surveillance system (VigiLanz) culture report. In 2019, a collaboration between the antimicrobial stewardship team (AST) and the infection control (IC) team set out to leverage data automation to create a dynamic antibiogram. The goal for the antibiogram was the ability to easily distribute and update for hospital staff, with the added ability to perform advanced tracking and surveillance of organism and drug susceptibilities for AST and IC. By having a readily available, accurate, and Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI)–compliant antibiogram, clinicians have the best available data on which to base their empiric antibiotic decisions. Methods: First, assessment of required access to hospital databases and selection of a visualization software (MS Power BI) was performed. Connecting SQL database feeds to Power BI enabled creation of a data model using DAX and M code to comply with the CLSI, generating the first isolate per patient per year. Once a visual antibiogram was created, it was validated against compiled antibiograms using data from the microbiology laboratory middleware (bioMerieux, Observa Integrated Data Management Software). This validation process uncovered some discrepancies between the 2 reference reports due to cascade reporting of susceptibilities. The Observa-derived data were used as the source of truth. The antibiogram prototype was presented to AST/IC members, microbiology laboratory leadership, and other stakeholders to assess functionality. Results: Following feedback and revisions by stakeholders, the new antibiogram was published on a hospital-wide digital platform (Fig. 1). Clinicians may view the antibiogram at any time on desktops from a firewall (or password)–protected intranet. The antibiogram view defaults to the current calendar year and users may interact with the antibiogram rows and columns without disrupting the integrity of the background databases or codes. Each year, simple refreshing of the Power BI antibiogram and changing of the calendar year allows us to easily and accurately update the antibiogram on the hospital-wide digital platform. Conclusions: This interdisciplinary collaboration resulted in a new dynamic, CLSI-compliant antibiogram with improved usability, increased visibility, and straightforward updating. In the future, a mobile version of the antibiogram may further enhance accessibility, bring more useful information to providers, and optimize AST/IC guidelines and education.Disclosures: None

Evaluation of the cycle threshold values of RT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2 in COVID-19 patients in predicting epidemic dynamics and monitoring surface contamination

To evaluate the application of cycle threshold (Ct) values of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients in predicting epidemic dynamics and monitoring surface contamination. The Ct value of reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction for SARS‑CoV-2 from COVID-19 patients inbound overseas in Xiamen, China was collected from October 2020 to December 2021, and the correlation of patients' Ct values with epidemic dynamics and surface contamination was evaluated. The results showed that there was an extreme inverse correlation of positivity rate in the current calendar month (ORF1ab, r = −0.692, P = 0.004; N,r = −0.629, P = 0.012) and the following calendar month (ORF1ab,r = −0.801, P = 0.001; N,r = −0.620, P = 0.018) with the median Ct values. Ct value showed better performance for monitoring surface contamination, with the area under the curve value 0.808(95 %CI: 0.748–0.869) for ORF1ab and 0.807(95 %CI:0.746–0.868) for the N gene. The patients’ ORF1ab Ct value< 29.09 or N Ct value< 28.03 were 11.25 times and 10.48 times more likely to result in surface contamination than those with ORF1ab Ct value ≥ 29.09 or N Ct value≥ 28.03 (OR:11.25,95 % CI: 5.52–22.35; OR:10.48,95 % CI:5.29–20.70). Ct values were associated with the positivity rate in the current or following calendar month and predicted the epidemic dynamics. The Ct values can be used as a predictor for monitoring surface contamination to develop public health responses to COVID-19.

Perspectives on the problem-posing activity by prospective teachers: A cross-national study

There is an ongoing research interest to disclose factors that influence problem-posing performance by involving cross-national backgrounds. This research extends that effort by conducting a comparative analysis on the performance of Indonesian and Hungarian prospective teachers in a problem-posing task. A total of eighty-three prospective teachers from Indonesia and Hungary were asked to pose a problem based on the current calendar. For more in-depth insights, an interview was conducted with a representative participant. The obtained data were analysed quantitatively using Fisher's exact test and qualitatively in nature. Their mathematical background seems to influence the characteristic of their proposed problem and the solution approach they utilized. The typical tasks proposed by Indonesian prospective teachers are exercise and mostly related to arithmetic operations, while those by Hungarian prospective teachers are challenging problems and generally connected to arithmetic sequences. Moreover, in solving their problems, Indonesians tend to show arithmetic reasoning while Hungarians often denote algebraic reasoning. These disparities might be attributed to the types of problems that each group typically encounters during their mathematics lessons.

EXAMPLES OF MATHEMATICAL PROBLEMS IN PRIMARY AND SECONDARY EDUCATION THAT INCLUDE THE ACTUAL CALENDAR YEAR

It is widely believed that math classes in primary school belong into the category of least favorite classes. Entire teams of psychologists, educators and mathematicians have studied the student aversion (and, to a certain extent, parent antipathy) to math classes, but they have also studied methods and ways to overcome this problem. They have tried to find a way to improve students’ activities, to make them more engaged in classes, and to increase their motivation. One of the opinions is that the student success requires their strong will, persistence, diligence and perseverance. Certainly, the competence, motivation and consistency of teachers, wholead them to the world of knowledge, have a great influence. One of the methods of achieving a positive influence of teachers, in the domain of increasing interest in mathematics and reducing aversion to it, is the use of interesting mathematical problems, in which the numerical value of the current calendar year or even the current date appears. The aim of this paper is to point out how the motivation of primary school students to adopt mathematical content can be increased. With concrete examples of interesting algebra problems, which tickle students’ fancy and make them think, we show how some lessons can be learned.

المکانة الشرعیة للجان رؤیة هلال المختلفة والتقویم القمری: دراسة تحلیلیة وبحوثیة

The Muslims of Pakistan fasting Ramadan and celebrating Edi Ul fitar on different days, this disagreement between Muslims of Pakistan is ongoing from the time Pakistan was founded, this difference in the start of fasting and the celebration of Eid takes place on two different days, sometimes on three different days. In this article we tried to review the legal place and Sharia status of these various Committees, their decisions, and the current lunar calendar. The main questions are: what is the cause of this disagreement and controversy? And what is the best way to unite the nation in this matter according to Islamic jurisprudence? This paper is a review of the legal place and Sharia status of the various Committees, their decisions, and the current lunar calendar. The Judgment of the government Committee” Central Rouet-e-Hilal Committee Pakistan” is the ruling of Sharia in the Hanafi Jurisprudence. Although the proposed lunar calendar is supported with logical and historical Proof these have been rejected by the majority of Islamic jurists with evidence.

Updated Methodology for Projecting U.S.- and State-Level Cancer Counts for the Current Calendar Year: Part II: Evaluation of Incidence and Mortality Projection Methods.

The American Cancer Society (ACS) and the NCI collaborate every 5 to 8 years to update the methods for estimating the numbers of new cancer cases and deaths in the current year for the U.S. and individual states. Herein, we compare our current projection methodology with the next generation of statistical models. A validation study was conducted comparing current projection methods (vector autoregression for incidence; Joinpoint regression for mortality) with the Bayes state-space method and novel Joinpoint algorithms. Incidence data from 1996-2010 were projected to 2014 using two inputs: modeled data and observed data with modeled where observed were missing. For mortality, observed data from 1995 to 2009, 1996 to 2010, 1997 to 2011, and 1998 to 2012, each projected 3 years forward to 2012 to 2015. Projection methods were evaluated using the average absolute relative deviation (AARD) between observed counts (2014 for incidence, 2012-2015 for mortality) and estimates for 47 cancer sites nationally and 21 sites by state. A novel Joinpoint model provided a good fit for both incidence and mortality, particularly for the most common cancers in the U.S. Notably, the AARD for cancers with cases in 2014 exceeding 49,000 for this model was 3.4%, nearly half that of the current method (6.3%). A data-driven Joinpoint algorithm had versatile performance at the national and state levels and will replace the ACS's current methods. This methodology provides estimates of cancer data that are not available for the current year, thus continuing to fill an important gap for advocacy, research, and public health planning.

Updated Methodology for Projecting U.S.- and State-Level Cancer Counts for the Current Calendar Year: Part I: Spatio-temporal Modeling for Cancer Incidence.

The American Cancer Society (ACS) and the NCI collaborate every 5-8 years to update the methods for estimating numbers of new cancer cases and deaths in the current year in the United States and in every state and the District of Columbia. In this article, we reevaluate the statistical method for estimating unavailable historical incident cases which are needed for projecting the current year counts. We compared the current county-level model developed in 2012 (M0) with three new models, including a state-level mixed effect model (M1) and two state-level hierarchical Bayes models with varying random effects (M2 and M3). We used 1996-2014 incidence data for 16 sex-specific cancer sites to fit the models. An average absolute relative deviation (AARD) comparing the observed with the model-specific predicted counts was calculated for each site. Models were also cross-validated for six selected sex-specific cancer sites. For the cross-validation, the AARD ranged from 2.8% to 33.0% for M0, 3.3% to 31.1% for M1, 6.6% to 30.5% for M2, and 10.4% to 393.2% for M3. M1 encountered the least technical issues in terms of model convergence and running time. The state-level mixed effect model (M1) was overall superior in accuracy and computational efficiency and will be the new model for the ACS current year projection project. In addition to predicting the unavailable state-level historical incidence counts for cancer surveillance, the updated algorithms have broad applicability for disease mapping and other activities of public health planning, advocacy, and research.

КЛИНИКО-ЭПИДЕМИОЛОГИЧЕСКАЯ ХАРАКТЕРИСТИКА МНОЖЕСТВЕННОЙ МИЕЛОМЫ В РЯЗАНСКОЙ ОБЛАСТИ

Aim. To determine the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of multiple myeloma (MM) in the Ryazan region in 2019. Materials and Methods. A retrospective analysis of medical histories of 107 patients with MM who were under observation at the hematology department of the state budgetary institution of the Ryazan region Regional Clinical Hospital (RCH) in 2019 was carried out. Registered morbid-ity implies identification of new cases of MM that were not registered before and were first de-tected in the current calendar year. Statistical analysis of the obtained data was carried out using Microsoft Office application programs and the methods of descriptive and parametric statistics. Results. In 2019, 107 patients of which 43 were men and 64 women aged 34-84 years (mean age 66.2±9.3 years), were under observation at the hematology department of the RCH. The ratio of men to women was 1.0 to 1.49, which reflects the all-Russian tendency. 3.77% Of patients with MM had IIA stage of the disease, 62.26% had IIIA stage, and 33.96% had IIIB stage of myeloma. The morbidity with MM in the Ryazan region in 2019 was 3.23 per 100 000 people. Conclusion. The incidence of the disease in the Ryazan region in 2019 was higher than the aver-age for Russia, which may be due to the diagnostic capabilities of the region with the existence of a specialized hematological department and an outpatient hematology service. In the age group of MM, patients aged 60-74 years predominated, women predominated in the gender structure. Among patients with MM in the Ryazan region, patients with III stage disease (96.22%) predominated.

Editorial

Editorial

Serogroup C invasive meningococcal disease in the post-vaccine era and vaccine failures

The incidence of serogroup C invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) has decreased since the introduction of systematic vaccination in 2000. The aim of this study is to determine the number of serogroup C IMD cases diagnosed since then and the vaccine failures. A retrospective analysis was performed on patients diagnosed with IMD by culture or polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in a maternity and childhood hospital in Barcelona between 2001 and 2018. An analysis was made of the number of vaccine doses and the age received, as well as on the medical records and vaccine cards. There were 128 confirmed cases of IMD (7.1 cases/year; 70.3 in <5 years). The serogroup was studied in 125 (97.6%) cases, in which 103 (82.4%) were B, 10 (8%) were C, one (0.8%) was 29E, and one (0.8%) was Y, and only 10 (8%) were not able to be serogrouped. Of the 10 patients with serogroup C, 4 were not vaccinated, and in 3, the course was not complete as regards the number of doses. The other 3 received the complete course according to age and current calendar, and thus were considered vaccine failures. A total of 6 patients died (mortality rate: 4.7%), 5 due to serogroup B (mortality: 4.8%), and one due to serogroup C (mortality: 10%). Serogroup C only represented 8% of IMD cases in the period studied, with 30% of cases due to this serogroup being vaccine failures.

Serogroup C invasive meningococcal disease in the post-vaccine era and vaccine failures

IntroductionThe incidence of serogroup C invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) has decreased since the introduction of systematic vaccination in 2000 The aim of this study is to determine the number serogroup C IMD cases diagnosed since then and the vaccine failures. Patients and methodsA retrospective analysis was performed on patients diagnosed with IMD by culture or polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in a maternity and childhood hospital in Barcelona between 2001 and 2018. An analysis was made of the number of vaccine doses and the age received, as well as on the medical records and vaccine cards. ResultsThere were 128 confirmed cases of IMD (7.1 cases/year; 70.3 in <5 years). The serogroup was studied in 125 (97.6%) cases, in which 103 (82.4%) were B, 10 (8%) were C, 1 (0.8%) was 29E, and 1(0.8%) was Y, and only 10 (8%) were not able to be serogrouped. Of the 10 patients with serogroup C, 4 were not vaccinated, and in 3, the course was not complete as regards the number of doses. The other 3 received the complete course according to age and current calendar, and thus were considered vaccine failures. A total of 6 patients died (mortality rate: 4.7%), 5 due to serogroup B (mortality: 4.8%), and 1 due to serogroup C (mortality: 10%). ConclusionsSerogroup C only represented 8% (10 cases) of IMD cases in the period studied, 3 cases due to this serogroup being vaccine failures.

P016 IMPROVING TUBERCULOSIS RE SCREENING IN INFLAMMATORY BOWEL DISEASE PATIENTS RECEIVING BIOLOGIC THERAPY: A SINGLE CENTER QUALITY IMPROVEMENT INITIATIVE.

Abstract Background Biological agents have revolutionized the management of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). There is a known increased risk of tuberculosis (TB) reactivation with biologic therapy (1). ACG guidelines recommend screening for active and latent TB infection (LTBI) prior to starting certain biologic agents (2). However, there are no consensus guideline on the utility of yearly screening testing in IBD patients without TB risk factors. With a number of patients now receiving the biologic therapy outside their primary care centers it has become increasingly difficult to effectively provide ongoing TB screening. With this quality improvement exercise, we aim to improve TB re-screening in patients receiving biologics by completing a yearly phone screening for exposure history. Method An interdisciplinary team from GI and ID developed a TB risk factor screening questionairre, adapting the California Department of Public Health’s Pediatric TB Risk Assessment tool (3). A list of patients receiving biologics was sorted by month of birth in the EMR. When the current calendar month aligned with the patient’s birth month, a GI RN reviewed the TB questionnaire with the patient (≥18 yo) and/or legal guardian by phone. If one or more TB risk factors were identified, the GI RN would notify the provider and a QuantiFERON-TB Gold (QFT) was ordered to be completed. Results 60 patients were found on biologic therapy (median age 17 yo) (38 males, 22 females) (68% CD, 28% UC, 3.3% IBD-U)(75% IFX, 12% ADA, and 3% other) to be to eligible TB screening between January - July 2019, 48 patients completed the phone screening. All 61 patients had completed TB screening prior to starting biologic therapy, which was reported to be negative. 13 patients were unable to be reached. 6/48 were identified as having at least 1 risk factor for TB. 5/6 patients with a positive screen had a negative QFT. 1 patient was away at college and a request to his adult GI managing his biologic was sent. Conclusion Screening for LTBI is required prior to starting a biologic therapy, though there are no guidelines for routine TB screening following initiation of the biologic. We propose performing an annual phone screening for TB exposure history for IBD patients on biologic therapy. QTF testing remains appropriate in patients with potential risk factors, such as being a health care worker or travel to/living in high endemic TB regions. References

From Fixed-Event to Fixed-Horizon Density Forecasts: Obtaining Measures of Multi-Horizon Uncertainty From Survey Density Forecasts

Surveys of professional forecasters produce precise and timely point forecasts for key macroeconomic variables. However, the accompanying density forecasts are not as widely utilized, and there is no consensus about their quality. This is partly because such surveys are often conducted for events. For example, in each quarter, panelists are asked to forecast output growth and inflation for the current calendar year and the next, implying that the forecast horizon changes with each survey round. The fixed-event nature limits the usefulness of survey density predictions for policymakers and market participants, who often wish to characterize uncertainty a fixed number of periods ahead (fixed-horizon). Is it possible to obtain fixed-horizon density forecasts using the available fixed-event ones? We propose a density combination approach that weights fixed-event density forecasts according to a uniformity of the probability integral transform criterion, aiming at obtaining a correctly calibrated fixed-horizon density forecast. Using data from the US Survey of Professional Forecasters, we show that our combination method produces competitive density forecasts relative to widely used alternatives based on historical forecast errors or Bayesian VARs. Thus, our proposed fixed-horizon predictive densities are a new and useful tool for researchers and policymakers.

A rapid method for evaluating the variables affecting traffic flow in a touristic road, Iran

BackgroundThis study aimed to evaluate variables that influence traffic flow and its contribution to touristic transportation in a touristic road, Iran. The traffic flow data were extracted from the hour-by-hour data in 2018 from a local traffic control center in addition to three daily indices, including climatic comfort indicator, temperature inversion indicator, and temporal indicator of local calendar events, which were obtained from databases and equations. The data time series were arranged into diurnal, weekly, and monthly scales to apply in correlation tests.ResultsResults revealed that a rate of 18–25% of total transportation (about 3,500,000–5,000,000 vehicles from total 19,828,619 vehicles) was assumed as a touristic portion of the traffic flow in the study area. The relationships between independent variables and traffic flow data exposed the effective and considerable role of the local climate on the traffic flow at above 98% of confidence level, without a strong association between calendar effect and traffic flow. Statistical results in all temporal cycles revealed the significant positive and negative effects of the local climatic comfort index and temperature inversion index on the traffic flow, respectively.ConclusionsThe finding of this study described that the traffic flow and touristic transportation in the study area are more affected by the local climatic comfort and temperature inversion indices, but are less affected by the local calendar holidays and occasional vacations. Hence, the decision-makers in the study area sternly need a fundamental climatic calendar for management, tourism transportation, and traffic flow instead of the current local calendar.

Unsatisfactory effectiveness of preventive programs for oncogynecological diseases in Bulgaria

Abstract Background Incidence rate and mortality of breast cancer and cancer of the cervix uteri in Bulgaria are higher in comparison with most countries of European Union (EU). Moreover, during the last three decades they have been increasing, even doubled for cervix cancer, although in developed countries there are proven effective prevention programs. The aim of the study is to explore how these programs are being implemented in Bulgaria and what caused their unsatisfactory results. Methods Data were collected by documents review and direct individual self-administered questionnaire among 186 women aged 30-69 concerning types and regularity of preventive activities. Results National Health Insurance Fund in Bulgaria defines as mandatory and finances a regular check-up annually for health insured people over 18 years of age. Mammography, as a screening of a breast cancer, was included in regular check-up package from the year 2011, once at every two years, for women aged 50-69. Papanicolau test for cancer of the cervix uteri wasn’t provided in the preventive package until the year 2017 when it was included only for women who complete 30 years of age in the current calendar year with intended regularity once at every two years. Women from other age groups currently are not covered with preventive examination for cervical cancer or they should pay for it which restricts accessibility and affordability of prevention activities. Study results indicates that every fifth of the investigated women have never had a prophylactic examination for breast cancer and cervical cancer. In addition, 69.4% of those who have such examination did not comply with the recommended regularity. Conclusions Screening programs against breast cancer and cancer of the cervix uteri are consistent with the recommendations of the oncology research societies but they being applied relatively soon in Bulgaria and some age groups are out of their coverage which decreases their effectiveness. Key messages Incidence rate and mortality of breast cancer and cancer of the cervix uteri in Bulgaria are higher than in most countries of European Union although there are proven effective prevention programs. Screening programs against breast cancer and cervical cancer are not effective because of their low accessibility and affordability and because they don’t comply with the recommended regularity.

Trend analysis in hepatitis C testing, OptumLabs® Data Warehouse, 2011–2017

ObjectiveUsing administrative claims for privately insured and Medicare Advantage enrollees from a large, private, U.S. health plan, we estimated the prevalence of hepatitis C testing among individuals who were recommended to be tested (i.e., baby boomer cohort born between 1945 and 1965) by the CDC and United States Preventive Services Task Force. This panel will discuss strengths and weaknesses for monitoring hepatitis C testing using alternative data sources including self-reported data, insurance claims data, and laboratory testing data.IntroductionHepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is the most common blood-borne disease in the US and the leading cause of liver-related morbidity and mortality. Approximately 3.5 million individuals in the US were estimated to be living with HCV in 2010 and approximately half of them were unaware that they were currently infected. Among HCV infected individuals, those born between 1945 and 1965 (usually referred to as the baby boomer cohort) represents approximately 75% of current cases. Because of the substantial burden of disease among this age group, CDC expanded its existing HCV risk-based testing recommendations to include a one-time HCV antibody test for all persons born between 1945-1965. The United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) subsequently made the same recommendation in June 2013.MethodsWe obtained health plan enrollment information and claims data from the 2011 - 2017 OptumLabs® Data Warehouse, and utilized data from patients enrolled in either commercially insured programs or Medicare Advantage. We examined trends in HCV testing for the birth cohort born between 1945 and 1965 and compared their trend in testing to individuals who were not in the birth cohort. We developed two different estimates for HCV testing incidence in order to make comparisons to other commercial claims datasets. The denominator for both estimates was the number of adults continuously enrolled in one or more health plan(s) in a given calendar year (allowing up to a 45-day gap in coverage). The numerator for the first estimate was the number of people receiving any HCV related test in the current calendar year who had not received any HCV related test including HCV antibody test, HCV RNA test or HCV genotype test in the previous calendar years. The numerator for the second estimate was the number of people who were given an HCV antibody test (CPT: 86803 and 80074) in a given calendar year, irrespective of previous testing history.ResultsDuring the study period 2011 - 2017, there were 20,332,848 unique adults who met the inclusion criteria in the OptumLabs® data. Approximately 7.1 million (35.0%) of these individuals were born between 1945 and 1965. On average, there were approximately 2.8 million birth cohort enrollees for any given calendar year. For the birth cohort, the annual incidence of HCV testing was about 2% per year during the time period between 2008 and 2011 (data not shown). In general, between 2011 and 2017, the trends in testing rates were consistent across both estimation methods. Specifically for the birth cohort, the HCV testing rate increased substantially between 2012 and 2017, peaking in 2017 at 8.56% [95% CI: 8.53-8.59%] and 10.24% [95% CI: 10.21-10.27%]. The greatest increase occurred between 2016 and 2017 when the testing rate almost doubled. In contrast, for the non-birth cohort, the HCV testing rate started in 2012 at a rate similar to the birth cohort but did not increase in a similar fashion and did not see a substantial increase in HCV testing in 2016 or 2017.ConclusionsSince CDC and USPSTF recommended universal testing for the birth cohort in 2012 and 2013, respectively, hepatitis C testing rates have been increasing across all age groups. The rate of increase for the birth cohort was substantially greater than that for the non-birth cohort. CDC and USPSTF recommendations are likely a strong contributing factor impacting hepatitis C testing rates in the US. Efforts to promote hepatitis C testing should continue.

Performance Learning System

The author heads his own auditing public practice (for the purposes of this Paper hereinafter referred to as 'Practice JS' or simply 'Practice') employing five staff, three engaged on technical matters and two on semi or non-technical matters. Although the Office makes use of a myriad of informal performance controls, yet there are no formal performance management tools in place. A selection of such tools based on the current informal ones is planned for commissioning towards the end of the current calendar year (2012). The project involves both technical and non-technical performance management devises aimed at strengthening both the professional as well as the administrative operations of the practice.

Pertussis in Poland in 2017

After the introduction of compulsory pertussis vaccination in Poland in 1960, there was a sharp decline in the incidence of this disease. For several years, however, an increase in the number of reported cases has been observed. In 2015 and 2016, the incidence was 12.9 and 17.8 per 100 000 population, respectively (1). The year 2017 can be treated as an inter-epidemic year in which there was a significant decrease (by 55.1%) incidence to 8.0 per 100 000 population compared to the previous year. Pertussis who are still old who may be the source of infection for non-immunized or not fully immunized newborns and infants are still a high percentage. Vaccination in accordance with the current calendar remains the most effective strategy for preventing illness. In our country, research is being carried out to optimize pertussis vaccination schedules using both whole-cell and acellular vaccines. The aim of the study is to assess the epidemiological situation of pertussis in Poland in 2017 compared to the situation in previous years, with particular emphasis on assessing the vaccination status of children against pertussis. The assessment of the epidemiological situation of pertussis in Poland was carried out on the basis of the results of the analysis of individual reports of suspected pertussis cases sent to NIZP-PZH by provincial sanitary-epidemiological stations and data from the bulletin ‘Infectious diseases and poisoning in Poland in 2017’ (2) and the bulletin ‘Protective vaccinations in Poland in 2017’ (3). In 2017, 3 061 pertussis cases were recorded. The incidence was 8.0 per 100 000 population and was 55% lower than in the previous year (17.8). The highest incidence of pertussis occurred in persons in the age group 0-4 years (37.0), and high in children and adolescents aged 5-9 and 10-14 years - 21.4 and 25.7 per 100 000 population. From 3 061 pertussis patients, 762 people (i.e. 25%) were hospitalized. In 2017, no deaths from pertussis were reported. The number of pertussis cases observed in 2017 indicates the persistent circulation of bacteria in the environment and the persistent susceptibility of the population to infection. Still, the only effective strategy to reduce the number of cases of vaccination remains the use of vaccinations according to the current calendar and expert recommendations.

From Fixed-event to Fixed-horizon Density Forecasts: Obtaining Measures of Multi-horizon Uncertainty from Survey Density Forecasts

Surveys of professional forecasters produce precise and timely point forecasts for key macroeconomic variables. However, the accompanying density forecasts are not as widely utilized, and there is no consensus about their quality. This is partly because such surveys are often conducted for “fixed events”. For example, in each quarter panelists are asked to forecast output growth and inflation for the current calendar year and the next, implying that the forecast horizon changes with each survey round. The fixed-event nature limits the usefulness of survey density predictions for policymakers and market participants, who often wish to characterize uncertainty a fixed number of periods ahead (“fixed-horizon”). Is it possible to obtain fixed-horizon density forecasts using the available fixed-event ones? We propose a density combination approach that weights fixed-event density forecasts according to a uniformity of the probability integral transform criterion, aiming at obtaining a correctly calibrated fixed-horizon density forecast. Using data from the US Survey of Professional Forecasters, we show that our combination method produces competitive density forecasts relative to widely used alternatives based on historical forecast errors or Bayesian VARs. Thus, our proposed fixed-horizon predictive densities are a new and useful tool for researchers and policy makers.