Current Account Deficit In Turkey Research Articles

DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTED ENERGY IN TURKEY: INPUT- OUTPUT ANALYSIS

The main goal of this paper is to reveal the extent of the import dependency on electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply (EGSA), the basic component of energy, in Turkey. Such that growing industrialization in Turkey has expanded the need for energy since many sectors use energy as input to produce output. However, Turkey’s domestic production fails to meet the energy demand. For this reason, Turkey meets approximately 75 percent of its energy needs through imports, leading to an increase in the current account deficit. Energy imports, approximately 20 percent of total imports, have become the primary component of the current account deficit, exposing the Turkish economy to instabilities in global gas and oil prices and several additional risks. In this context, we analyzed the extent of the dependency on energy by the input-output tables of 2002 and 2012. The results underline that as production increases, energy imports increase, and the economic leakage generated by the rise in demand for energy increases. This creates a significant obstacle to the development of the Turkish economy. Hence, existing policies for domestic energy production need to be strengthened for sustainable development goals and to decrease the high current account deficit in Turkey.

The Impact of Natural Gas Imports on the Current Account Deficit in Turkey

The current account deficit is an important macroeconomic indicator that determines the future economic expectations and economic policies to be implemented. In developing countries such as Turkey, for the current account deficit problem, it is extremely important to ensure the implementation of various economic policies and measures. In Turkey, after natural gas reserves were found in 2020, energy imports, foreign dependence on energy imports, and energy issues, such as the share of current account deficit have been raised. The study, between the years 2009-2019 examines the impact on the current deficit of natural gas imports occurred in Turkey. In the study, the Unit Root Test and Granger causality tests were applied while considering the relationship between current account deficit and natural gas imports. Depending on the results obtained; while there is no Granger causality from current account deficit to natural gas imports, in the case where the current account deficit is dependent on natural gas imports; It has been determined that there is Granger causality from natural gas imports to the current account deficit. It is seen that the increase in natural gas imports caused an increase in the current account deficit. According to this analysis, it was concluded that if there is a natural gas resource in our country and it reduces foreign dependency, it will create a reducing effect on the current account deficit, which is seen as one of the most important indicators.

ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT SUSTAINABILITY IN TURKEY

This paper examines the sustainability of current account deficit in Turkey with the help of an annual and a monthly data set covering the period 1923-2019 and 2008:1-2020:8, respectively. The data set is divided into subperiods and is implemented various traditional and breakpoint unit root tests, cointegration analysis and error correction models (ECM). The findings reveal that the export and import series are cointegrated for all of subperiods, and that the current account deficit is sustainable in Turkey in a weak form. This study employs a comprehensive approach by implementing miscellaneous econometric analysis on the data set to contribute the current literature on current account deficit in Turkey. As to our policy recommendation, in order to sustain it in strong form or close, reducing the share of imported inputs in the production, granting incentives to exporting firms and import substituted production should be encouraged.

EFFECTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH OF CURRENT DEFICIT IN TURKEY (2006-2019)

Türkiye ekonomisini yakından ilgilendiren cari işlemler açığı ekonominin önemli faktörlerindenve ekonomik krizlerin meydana gelmesine neden olan göstergelerden biridir. Türkiye’de cari işlemleraçığına neden olan faktörler arasında ekonomik büyüme, tasarruf ve yatırımlar, enerjide dışa bağımlılık,dış ticaret açığı, döviz kuru, bütçe açıkları, dış borç stoku, işsizlik oranı, Türk Lirasının aşırıdeğerlenmesi gibi birçok etken sayılabilmektedir.Cari işlemler hesabı açık verdiğinde ülke, yurtdışından kazandığı paradan daha fazlasını,yurtdışına göndermiş demektir. Dolayısıyla yaratılan açık, dışarıdan borçlanarak ya da yurtiçi varlıklarınsatılması kanalıyla kapanmaktadır. Bunun tersi durumda da, yani cari işlemler hesabı fazla verdiğindeyurt içi yerleşiklerce yurtdışına sermaye transferi gerçekleştirilmektedir. Sonuç olarak cari işlemlerhesabı, yurtdışı yerleşiklere karşı olan toplam yükümlülüklerdeki veya yurtdışı yerleşik bir ülkedebulunan varlıklardaki değişimi göstermektedir.Bu çalışmanın amacını, Türkiye’de 2006-2019 döneminde cari açık ve ekonomik büyümedemeydana gelen değişimleri incelemek, cari açık ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi tespit etmekoluşturmaktadır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda TÜİK, Merkez Bankası, Hazine ve Maliye Bakanlığı ile Stratejive Bütçe Başkanlığı verilerinden yararlanılarak cari işlemler dengesizliği yaratan unsurlar tespit edilmiştir.Türkiye’de cari işlemler açığının süreklilik kazanmasına yol açan faktörlere yönelik çözüm yolları ortayakonulmuştur. Türkiye ekonomisinde büyüme arttıkça cari açığın da artmakta olduğu sonucunavarılmıştır.

Determination of PM10 and deposited dust dispersion on the settlement areas from Aksa Göynük coal (lignite) fueled thermal power plant

With the growing population and rapidly developing industrialization in Turkey, energy demand is also increasing. The majority of the energy is produced using imported products, which increase the current account deficit in Turkey. The use of coal from domestic sources are encouraged for economic reasons. One of the coal (lignite) fueled thermal power plants established for this purpose is operating in the province of Bolu Göynük. In order to determine the environmental effect of the plant on the settlement areas in the area, air quality monitoring studies have been conducted. In the study, the periodic PM10 and deposited dust parameters have been monitored monthly at four points between 2013 and 2019, including before and after installation of the plant. As a result of the study; the mean PM10 measurement were obtained as 36.48 ± 0.73; 37.61 ± 0.75; 42.70 ± 0.85 and 38.72 ± 0.77 μg/m3 for four points. Meanwhile, the mean values of the deposited dust were found as 70.81 ± 2.12; 35.55 ± 1.07; 79.50 ± 2.39 and 29.38 ± 0.88 mg/m2/day. Despite the providing current limit values of the dust parameter for power plant where the electrostatic precipitator (ESP) filter and flue gas desulfurization (FGD) systems are applied, it is observed that the dust emissions from activities such as coal extraction, crushing, sieving and ash storage in the area show different cases depending on meteorological conditions.

MAKROEKONOMİK DEĞİŞKEN OLARAK BÜTÇE AÇIĞI İLE CARİ AÇIK İLİŞKİSİ 2000 SONRASI TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Bu çalışmanın temel amacı bütçe ve cari açık arasındaki ilişkinin Türkiye ekonomisinde araştırılmasıdır. İki ölçüt arasındaki ilişki 2005-2017 yılları arasında çeyreklik veriler ile incelenmektedir. Çalışmada kullanılan değişkenlerin durağanlık seviyeleri ADF, PP ve KPSS birim kök testleriyle belirlenmektedir. Seriler arasındaki eştümleşme ilişkisi ARDL sınır testi kullanılarak sınanmaktadır. Son olarak değişkenler arasındaki nedenselliğin varlığı ve yönü Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi ile tespit edilmektedir. Elde edilen ampirik bulgular değişkenlerin farklı mertebeden durağan olabileceği yönünde şüphe uyandırmaktadır. ARDL sınır testi sonuçları ise serilerin uzun dönemde birlikte hareket ettiklerini göstermektedir. Ayrıca uzun dönemde bütçe dengesi açığından cari işlemler dengesi açığına doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmaktadır. Bu sonuçlar Türkiye’de ilgili dönemde Keynesyen teorinin geçerliliğini kanıtlanamaktadır.

Sustainability of Current Account Deficit in Turkey

Purpose: This study aims to examine the sustainability of the current account deficit in Turkey for the quarterly data between 2003 and 2018. Besides, some policy implications are made to ensure the sustainability of the current account deficit in Turkey's economy. Design/methodology/approach: The dynamics related to the sustainability of the current account deficit is analysed within the framework of the intertemporal budget constraint approach developed by Husted (1992). The long-term dynamics are empirically investigated using the Johansen cointegration test. Econometric analysis is also expanded within the framework of the Vector Error Model to reveal the short-term dynamics. Findings: The results of Johansen cointegration analysis suggest that current account income and expenses are integrated with the cointegrating coefficient less than 1, implying that Turkey has a weak form of current account deficit sustainability. Findings of the Vector Error Correction model confirm the results of long-run analysis and indicates that the deviations from the long-term equilibrium are corrected at a rate of 78% every quarter term. Research limitations/implications: The intertemporal budget constraint approach developed by Husted (1992) focuses on the equilibrium between current account income and expenses to analyse the sustainability of the foreign balance. However, the sustainability of the foreign deficit is also closely related to what kind of capital inflows is used to finance the foreign deficit. Therefore, the implications made regarding the sustainability of the current account deficit in Turkey based on the Husted model should be accepted with some reservations. Originality/value: Since external imbalances are a key challenge for most of the developing countries to provide full integration into the world economy, many empirical studies are examining the current account sustainability. The majority of these studies focus on the long-run dynamics of the current account imbalances. Unlike most of the previous studies, this paper also focuses on the short-run dynamics of the current account balance. Thus, the difference of this study from other studies stems from the examination of the dynamics of current account sustainability not only in the long term but also in the short term.

An Evaluatıon on Energy Imports and Current Account Deficit In Turkey

Cari açık ile enerji ithalatı arasındaki ilişki literatürde sıklıkla tartışılan konularından biridir. Türkiye örneğinin incelendiği bu çalışmada, 1984-2015 dönemini kapsayan yıllık veriler kullanılarak cari açık ile enerji ithalatı arasındaki ilişki ARDL sınır testi ve Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testiyle araştırılmıştır. Net doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişleri ve varil başına ham petrol ithalatı fiyatları kontrol değişkenlerinin de dâhil edildiği ARDL sınır testi sonuçlarına göre değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre ise cari açık değişkeninden doğrudan yabancı yatırım değişkenine doğru tek yönlü ve negatif bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilirken, nedensellik etkisinin incelendiği diğer değişkenler arasında istatistiki olarak anlamlı bir ilişkiye rastlanmamıştır. İlgili değişkenler arasında tespit edilen ters yönlü nedensellik ilişkisinin gelişmekte olan ülkelerin temel problemlerinden olan finansal kırılganlık olgusuna işaret etmesi önem arz etmektedir.

Reasons of Current Account Deficit in Turkey And The Relationship Between Current Open And Foreign Trade Deficit

Cari islemler acigi, hem gelismis hem de gelismekte olan ulke ekonomileri acisindan onemli iktisadi sorunlardan birini olusturmaktadir. Ulke ekonomileri acisindan onemli bir gosterge niteligi tasiyan cari islemler acigi genel olarak, bir ulkenin mal ve hizmet ihracati ile ithalati arasindaki farktan kaynaklanabilecegi gibi kamusal gelirlerinden daha fazla kamu harcamasi yapilmasindan ya da yatirim harcamalarinin ulke tasarruflarini asmasindan kaynaklanabilir. Bu baglamda onemi gittikce artan cari islemler acigina nelerin sebebiyet verdigi ve bu sebeple icerisinde ozellikle dis ticaret aciklarinin etkisini incelemek amaciyla hazirlanmis olan bu calismada dis ticaret aciginin cari islemler acigi uzerindeki etkileri 2000-2017 donemi icin yillar itibariyle ve veriler yardimiyla incelenmistir. Yapilan inceleme neticesinde, cari acigin artis gostermesinde pek cok faktor yaninda dis ticaret acigina neden olan faktorlerinde etkili oldugu, bu faktorlerin ise doviz kurlarinda meydana gelen dalgalanmalardan, ithal girdi bagimliligindaki artislardan, nufus artislarina bagli olarak artis gosteren teknoloji yogun ithal mal talebindeki artistan ve ekonomik buyume isteginden olustugu tespit edilmistir. Ayrica dis ticaret aciklari ile cari islem aciklarinin yillar itibariyle degisim acisindan paralellik gosterdigi tespit edilmis, buna ilaveten ozelde enerji ithaline ve genelde de butun ara mallarinin ithaline bagli olarak ortaya cikan ithalat artislarinin dis ticaret acigini artirdigi, dis ticaret aciginda meydana gelen artislarin ise cari islemler aciginin artmasina neden oldugu sonucuna ulasilmistir.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FINANCIAL DEPTH AND CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT IN TURKEY

In this study, the relationship between financial depth and current account deficit in Turkey is investigated in the short-run and long-run by using Bounds Test approach developed by Pesaran & Shin 1999 and Pesaran 2001 for the period 1987:01-2014:04. According to the results, there is a long-term relationship between financial depth and the current account deficit, but there is no short-term relationship. In addition, there is a negative relationship between the current account deficit variables and financial depth indicating that the more financial depth increases; there is an improvement in the current account deficit.

Impact of Consumer Loans on Inflation and Current Account Deficit: A Toda Yamamoto Causality Test for Turkey

This study aims to investigate the causality relationship between consumer loans and inflation, and consumer loans and current account deficit in Turkey. In this scope, Toda Yamamoto causality test is used for the periods between 1994:1 and 2015:3. According to test results, we found that there is no causal relationship between consumer loans and inflation rate, and consumer loans and current account deficit. In other words, changes in consumer loans do not lead neither high current account deficit rates nor high inflation rates in Turkey. Therefore, limiting consumer loans is not the solution for inflation and current account deficit problems of Turkey and policy makers should apply some other effective policies to solve high CA deficit and high inflation problems.

Global Liquidity, Current Account Deficit, and Exchange Rate Balance Sheet Effects in Turkey

ABSTRACTThis study investigates the current account deficit (CAD) of Turkey from the perspective of its capital account. We discuss how global liquidity conditions and monetary policies in Turkey have contributed to higher deficits through real exchange rate appreciations. We analyze the impact and consequences of exchange rate (ER) changes on the investments of non-financial firms. In the case of real ER depreciations, we find that the magnitude of the contractionary effect through balance sheets of firms with dollarized liabilities is significantly higher than the expansionary effect through trade competitiveness. We also analyze the “soft-landing” policies aimed at reducing the CAD in Turkey and estimate the rate of economic growth that must be foregone for a percentage reduction in CAD.

Determinants of Current Account Deficit in Turkey: The Conditional and Partial Granger Causality Approach

This study aims to reveal the causality relations between the macro aggregates that affect current deficit using conditional and partial Granger causality test. Current deficit/GDP, growth rate, real effective exchange rate, direct foreign capital investment, openness, and energy import were selected as variables for this purpose. 2003.1-2014.2 quarterly data for Turkey's economy were used for analysis. The results of the conditional and partial Granger causality test demonstrate that real effective exchange rate is the variable with greatest impact on current deficit/GDP. Exchange rate is followed by the growth rate, energy import, and openness variables. And direct foreign capital investment is the variable with the least impact.

The Relationship Between the Budget Deficit and Current Account Deficit in Turkey

One of the most debated topics in Economics literature is the relation between budget deficit and current account deficit. The data obtained from the presence of this kind of relation is leading for policy makers in terms of determining the quality of the policy to be preferred and the economic policy to be pursued. In this study, the relation between budget deficit and current account deficit in Turkey is analyzed for 2001Q2-2012Q2 period. According to the data obtained, budget deficit has negative and statistically meaningful effect on current account balance. On the other hand, budget deficit has negative effect on current account balance in short terms.

Current Account Deficit and Global Competitiveness in Turkey

Normal 0 21 false false false TR X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 Current account deficit has been at the core of policy discussions in recent years in Turkey. The current account deficit in Turkey has exceeded the risky level. Policy makers worry that the enlarging current account deficit will further jeopardize Turkey’s economic future, making it more vulnerable to external economic fluctuation. The greatest portion of the current account deficit in Turkey results from increased trade deficit, and the main parts of imports in Turkey focus on some specific countries. A comparison between Turkey and its trade partners in terms of global competitiveness will provide a deep insight to reduce the deficit as well as the current account deficit. For this reason, this study aims to compare the level of global competitiveness of Turkey and its main trade partners. /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Normal Tablo"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;}

Sustainability of the current account deficit in Turkey

In this study, the long term sustainability of the Turkish current account deficit was investigated using the autoregressive distributed lag approach for the period of January 2000 to June 2010. Results showed that the current account deficit of Turkey was sustainable in the weak form, but not in the strong form for the period analyzed. Key words: Current account, exports, imports, co-integration and autoregressive distributed lag models.