Forward Currency Research Articles

Currency Management by International Fixed‐Income Mutual Funds

ABSTRACTInvestments in international fixed‐income securities are exposed to significant currency risks. We collect novel data on currency derivatives used by U.S. international fixed‐income funds. We document that while 90% of funds use currency forwards, they hedge, on average, only 18% of their currency exposure. Funds' currency forward positions differ substantially based on risk management demands related to portfolio currency exposure, return‐enhancement motives such as currency momentum and carry trade, and strategic considerations related to past performance and fund clientele. Funds that hedge their currency risk exhibit lower return variability, but do not generate inferior abnormal returns.

Sovereign Credit Default Swaps and the Currency Forward Bias

We study the links between sovereign credit risk and the currency forward bias. In a setting of defaultable sovereign bonds, we show that the forward bias can be negatively linked to sovereign credit risk. We confirm empirically that the forward bias is negatively associated to sovereign CDS spreads and systematically across both developed and emerging countries but the effect is more pronounced for emerging countries. Furthermore, we show that the forward bias decreases after the inception of the sovereign CDS market. Overall, our results underscore the distinct role of the sovereign CDS market in enhancing price efficiency in currency forward and spot markets.

Do positive and negative variations in stock indexes lead to depreciation in local currencies? A beyond symmetrical evidence from ASEAN-5 region

Preliminary studies overlooked the importance of the financial crisis in the asymmetric transmission of financial market shocks to FX market returns. Moreover, existing studies also concentrated on the response of aggregate equity market returns to the forex market returns rather than the vice versa asymmetric effect for the ASEAN-5 region. We utilised the panel based ARDL and NARDL framework using pooled mean group method for conducting this study. There are 415 observations spanning the pre-crisis period of January 2001 to December 2007. Furthermore, 595 and 1135 observations are taken into consideration when post-recessionary, and overall sampling periods of January 2010 to December 2019 and January 2001 to December 2019 are considered, correspondingly. Overall, the findings indicated that in the short run, only negative equity market returns caused depreciation in the local currencies of ASEAN-5 member countries during the pre-crisis period, whereas only positive shocks during the post-crisis regime appreciated the local currencies of ASEAN-5 member countries. Furthermore, only longer-term negative financial market shocks contribute to post-crisis local currency deflation in the ASEAN-5 member nations. This demonstrates that investors and exporters must consider the importance of the particulate crisis period when formulating forward currency arrangements.

On the Use of Currency Forwards: Evidence from International Equity Mutual Funds

On the Use of Currency Forwards: Evidence from International Equity Mutual Funds

Procedure for Separate Accounting of Interest and Exchange Rate Components of the Fair Value of a Set of Financial Instruments: IFRS

The research considers the development of the principles of separate accounting and analysis of the interest and exchange rate components of the fair value of a set of financial instruments under the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). The aim of the work is to consider a practical situation with a deferred payment for financial instruments received under an agreement, while the participants of the scheme hedged economic transactions using derivative financial instruments. Here, from the standpoint of accounting and analytics, the mechanism of separation of interest and exchange rate elements, which directly affect the fair value of the forward contract, is of significant importance. It also related this to the requirements of IFRS standards. The research has developed a procedure for separate accounting of these financial components. In particular, it has worked out an algorithm for accounting and mathematical evaluation of exchange rate differences when hedging cash flows of debt instruments with currency forwards. The methodological base of the research includes dynamic situational analysis, system analysis, models of financial mathematics, analytical procedures of the modern theory of financial accounting. The theoretical and practical significance of the research lies in the development of scientific and applied tools based on accounting and process models and evaluation algorithms. The accounting can use the developed procedures, analytical and audit services of banks and corporations in preparing and analyzing financial statements under IFRS.

Assessment of an Exchange Rate’s Fluctuations Impact on the Foreign Exchange Market

The article analyzes the foreign exchange market functioning under the influence of exchange rate fluctuations. The main factors determining the exchange rate in the existing conditions have been determined. All course-forming factors are divided into fundamental ones, which include the main economic indicators; technical conjunctural; extraordinary (unexpected) and non-economical. The formation of the forward currency operations market trends, in particular forward contracts, currency swaps, options and other financial instruments, was also investigated. The income trends of the current currency market from quotes of the most used currency pairs are briefly described.It was concluded that the most predictable indicator in the current currency operations market is the standardized exchange rate, determined on the basis of currency quotes of at least 6 commercial banks. When calculating the average arithmetic rate, the highest and lowest quotation rates are not taken into account.The future foreign exchange market trends depend on the choice of the monetary policy vector, which is based on a qualitative and quantitative assessment. Since the processes in the currency market have a fractal structure and cannot be predicted using classical methods, the provisions of the fractal statistics theory are used for this purpose.In particular, on the basis of existing quotations of the currency pair US dollar/Ukrainian hryvnia, the Hurst indicator, which reflects the level of anti-persistence of the national currency exchange rate dynamics, was calculated, and accordingly, its ability to change trends to the opposite in periods of high volatility and in the presence of factors that cause it. The volatility of the national currency rate and the level of anti-persistence of currency fluctuations depends on a number of measures in the field of currency regulation and currency and monetary policy. At the same time, any intervention of the state government in the exchange rate formation process causes a change in the trend. The results of the calculations can be used for operational and strategic planning of the business entities behavior on currency markets and measures aimed at countering the negative impact of exchange rate changes.

Sovereign Credit Default Swaps and the Currency Forward Bias

Sovereign Credit Default Swaps and the Currency Forward Bias

Jumps in foreign exchange spot rates and the informational efficiency of currency forwards

AbstractIn this paper, we show that forward premiums are significant predictors of innovations in currency spot rates, and currency forward rates lead to price discovery during normal trading periods. Conversely, currency spot rates lead to price discovery during volatile periods. This finding is linked to investors' overreaction to information, which in turn induces jumps in the currency spot rate; positive jumps weaken the contribution of the forward rate to price discovery and their informational efficiency. We also find that the forward premium puzzle is linked to jump‐driven pricing inefficiencies.

Currency Management by International Fixed Income Mutual Funds

Investments in international fixed income securities are exposed to significant currency risks. We collect novel data on mutual fund currency derivatives and document that around 90% of U.S. international fixed income funds use currency forwards to manage their foreign exchange exposure. Funds' currency forward positions differ substantially based on risk management demands related to portfolio currency exposures, return-enhancement motives such as currency momentum and carry trade, and strategic considerations related to past performance and fund clienteles. Funds that hedge their currency risk exhibit lower return variability, but do not generate inferior abnormal returns.

Equity Funds and Derivatives: Evidence from Linked Fund-Trade Data

Building on data collected under the EMIR framework, we provide new insight into the type of derivatives that are traded by UCITS equity funds, why some of them trade derivatives whilst others do not, what makes some more active traders and to what extend the trading in derivatives is a reaction to daily changes in the market. 46% of UCITS equity funds are trading derivatives. Three types of contracts account for 78% of funds’ derivatives trades: currency forwards, equity futures, and equity options. We find that the derivatives trading behavior is related to the fund-family affiliation and the investment strategy. Over time, cash inflows as well as currency risk seem to have a significant influence, which suggests that derivatives are used for transaction costs or risk reduction purposes.

Currency Management by International Fixed Income Mutual Funds

Investments in international fixed income securities are exposed to significant currency risks. We collect novel data on mutual fund currency derivatives and document that around 90% of U.S. international fixed income funds use currency forwards to manage their foreign exchange exposure. Funds' currency forward positions differ substantially based on risk management demands related to portfolio currency exposures, return-enhancement motives such as currency momentum and carry trade, and strategic considerations related to past performance and fund clienteles. Funds that hedge their currency risk exhibit lower return variability, but do not generate inferior abnormal returns.

To Hedge or Not to Hedge: A Framework for Currency Hedging Decisions in Global Equity & Fixed Income Portfolios

This paper develops a framework for evaluating the impact of currency hedging on expected returns and volatility and tests the implications for global equity and fixed income portfolios using data on 12 developed markets from 1985 to 2019. We show that the impact of currency hedging on overall portfolio volatility depends on the magnitude of asset volatility relative to that of currency volatility. We also find that currency returns cannot be reliably predicted using the prior month currency returns or interest rate differentials. The forward currency premium, however, contains reliable information about differences in expected returns between unhedged and hedged portfolios, and can be used to pursue higher expected returns through a selectively hedged strategy.

Foreign Exchange Risk in Albania

Foreign exchange risk is the potential for loss due to an adverse change in foreign exchange rates, and applies to all exchange rate–related products whose positions are valued in a currency that differs from the bank’s reporting currency. Eventual movements in the exchange rate are a risk for investors and businesses with international operations. Therefore, they adopt strategies to minimize the impact of eventual adverse movements. This is known as hedging, and it involves using financial instruments to increase protection against currency fluctuations. Hedging makes transactions, cash flows and cost structures more stable and predictable. There are different strategies which are designed to manage foreign exchange risk. Each of them, however, is constructed under specific assumptions, for a specific risk profile. The question arises as to which strategy would be expected to yield the best results in a given scenario. The first part of the current study describes how do banks measure and hedge the foreign exchange risk by using a set of simulated foreign exchange cash flows to compare the profits resulting from the use of different foreign exchange risk management strategies. The key risk metrics to measure the foreign exchange risk considered for this study are: Value at Risk and Stress Testing. The risk management strategies considered to hedge foreign exchange risk for the study are: forward currency contracts, currency options, and currency swaps. The study analyses and evaluates these foreign exchange risk management strategies to find out which of the strategies is appropriate in particular situations for banks and for non-financial corporates. The second part gives some statistics about open foreign currency position and the risk appetite in the Albanian banking market and how non-financial firms could use financial derivatives to hedge the foreign exchange risk.

Measuring the volatility spill-over effects of crude oil prices on the exchange rate and stock market in Ghana

ABSTRACTThis paper examines shock and volatility spill-over effects from crude oil prices to Ghana’s exchange rate and stock market. We employ multivariate GARCH BEKK and TBEKK models using monthly data from January 1991 to December 2015. We address two main issues. First, whether oil price movements affect Ghana’s exchange rate and stock market. There are very few previous papers that consider the impact of such volatility spill-overs for Ghana and we are the first to do so in a four-variable system of equations. Second, whether any oil price effects depend on the treatment of oil prices as exogenous or endogenous. We are the first to consider specifications that treat crude oil price spill-over effects as exogenous. We find that oil prices have significant spill-over effects on the exchange rate. This result is unaffected by the treatment of oil prices as exogenous or endogenous. However, the relationship between oil prices and Ghana’s stock market depends on whether the oil price is exogenous or endogenous. The implication of these results is that internationally diversified portfolio investors in Ghana should use hedging strategies such as currency forwards, futures, and options to protect their investments from exchange rate risk emanating from oil price shocks.

An Analysis of Foreign Exchange Risk Management: Techniques Employed in Indian Pharma Industry

Foreign exchange risk management (FERM) involves using both internal and external techniques such as forwards, futures, options, and swaps that are called as currency derivatives. The firms with greater growth opportunities and tighter financial constraints are more inclined to use currency derivatives. The Forex market provides various derivative instruments to hedge against currency exposures such as currency forwards, options, futures, and swaps. The current article aims at studying various FERM techniques used in the Indian pharmaceutical industry and its impact on exchange gain/losses. For this purpose, foreign exchange cash flows arising out of imports and exports and exchange gain/losses of the companies during 2010–2017 of 10 sample companies chosen from the pharma industry are used. It is observed from the study that only two currencies—USD and EUR—hold command in the forex market and other currencies are being used minimally. It is also noted that there are several currency derivatives available to the business firms such as forwards, futures, options, and swaps for hedging currency exposure. However, among all these techniques, forward contract is considered to be an effective hedging tool and easier to understand.

The Collateral-Linked Currency Forward (CLCF) Contract: Blockchain-Enabled OTC Currency Forward Market Infrastructure

We eliminate the primary source of uncompensated risk from trading in one of the largest sectors of the global financial markets. Market infrastructure enhancements are achieved in the foreign exchange (FX) forward contract market by integrating distributed ledger technology (DLT) into the creation of collateral-linked contracts for currency forwards (CLCF). Specifically, we deploy DLT with embedded automation as the shared platform for bilateral FX forward contracts, including operational provisions of International Swaps and Derivatives Association and Credit Support Annex agreements. Through automation, we link the economics of the currency forward contract and the price-volatility-induced counterparty exposures, bringing intraday counterparty risk to within mutually acceptable ranges. The essential benefits of the over-the-counter market structure are preserved because CLCF contracts remain bilateral to allow for customized terms and conditions between market participants. Reduced concentration risk is also preserved because there is no central counterparty or central clearing organization into which all risks are pooled. As a result, liquidity is enhanced and risk is reduced in the FX forward contract market.

Sovereign Credit Rating, Rating Migration, and the Risk-Free Rate: A Joint Markov Process and Random Walk Modelling of the Risk-Free Rate

The study proposes and tests a risk-free rate model that simultaneously lets the risk-free rate migrate between rating categories as risk-free rate ranges, and follow a random walk within rating categories as risk-free rate ranges. This is seen as a more accurate modelling of the risk-free rate, that better allows for random shifts in the risk-free rate, due to events and shocks. A benefit of the risk-free rate model is that it is entirely ahistorical. Also, future risk-free rate probability distributions can easily be generated by the model. This has particular benefits for exchange rate – currency forwards – valuation. The risk-free rate model greatly infers and builds on the relationship between the current risk-free rate, and likely future risk-free rates, as well as risk-free rate volatility. It also clusters risk-free rates into rating categories, and rating categories are assigned risk-free rate ranges. This then presumes that risk-free rates falling in the same rating category have comparable characteristics, most notably in terms of probable future risk-free rates and risk-free rate volatility. It also presumes that sovereign credit ratings as rating categories contain risk-free rate data on risk-free rate ranges, and risk-free rate volatility, and that sovereign credit ratings are or should be comparable or universal. Although the study arbitrarily assigned rating categories, and risk-free rate ranges to the rating categories, empirical research can clarify this, by examining the relationship between the risk-free rate and risk-free rate volatility, and by examining the relationship between sovereign credit ratings and risk-free rate ranges as well as risk-free rate volatility. Firstly, comparable risk-free rates should illustrate comparable risk-free rate volatility, and risk-free rates should cluster in terms of their risk-free rate volatility characteristics. Secondly, sovereign credit ratings should demonstrate risk-free rate ranges and risk-free rate volatility characteristics. To test the model, a risk-free bond portfolio, together with a risk-free rate rating migration matrix were simulated. The rating migration matrix governs the migration between risk-free rate rating categories. It is shown that the original migration matrix can again be decomposed with adequate accuracy, given that the appropriate constraints are used. It indicates that the model can be applied to empirical markets. Possible refinements to the model are noted.

Dynamic information spillovers in intraregionally-focused spot and forward currency markets

This paper proposes an intraregionally-focused tri-currency modeling framework to investigate dynamic information spillovers across spot and forward exchange rate markets in frontier and emerging country currencies, for both price levels and volatilities. Empirical estimates of structural parameters were obtained using an MGARCH–MSKST model that incorporated the term structure of non-deliverable forward (NDF) and deliverable forward (DF) markets, the dominance of regional currencies, and the influence of differing forward contract maturities (1-, 3-, 6- and 12-months). The currencies for nine countries were grouped into three regions: Northeast Asia (China, Korea and Taiwan); South/Southeast Asia (India, Indonesia and Philippines); and Latin America (Brazil, Chile and Columbia). The currency for each selected country was evaluated within the regionally determined tri-currency system. We found that NDF markets play a dominant role over DF markets with regard to price discovery during periods of tranquility. During periods of crisis, both NDF and DF markets exhibit a more balanced impact on currency market price discovery mechanisms. In addition, distinct differences were observed across regions: currencies in Northeast Asia were shown to be affected by the Chinese renminbi during periods of crisis and the Indian rupee could be regarded as the dominant currency in South/Southeast Asia. No robust results were obtained with regard to the dominance of currencies in Latin America. Finally, our results also suggest important distinctions between the effect of various instrument maturities on NDF and DF market returns – with DF returns being more responsive to longer maturities (6-months and 12-months). During tranquil periods NDF returns are more responsive to shorter maturities, but during crisis periods this effect is diminished.

Liquidity-Risk-Premium Free Price Models of Government Bonds and Currency Forwards in Persistently Informed Markets

Previous researchers, such as: Fleming and Remolona (1999) and Li et al. (2009), accounted some dealers having private information. On contrary, this study begins with introducing a situation in government bonds and currency forwards markets where all participants always have commonly shared information and make distinct expectations. The circumstance requires that market maker map dealers' expectations. Fluctuating price expectations expose market makers to order flow imbalances and liquidity measures' variations. Later, we develop liquid price models to improve existing liquidity-risk-premium free price models of government bonds and currency forwards and an objective function of liquidity-risk-premium free term structure.

Currency Risk in Global Equity Markets: Determinants, Risk, and Predictability

This dissertation aims to understand the impact that currency movement — in particular U.S. dollar movement — has in determining the returns to individual global equities. To that end, the dissertation focuses on three main goals. First, is to identify the optimal approach for measuring the degree of local/U.S. dollar currency exposure among so many disparate firms. Second, is to use this exposure to identify avenues for stock return predictability. And third, is to test whether currency exposure is systematic in the cross-section of returns — be that cross- section a country, region, or the world.The first section focuses on the measurement of exchange rate sensitivity for global firms and associated predictability. The analysis reveals that firms that are most strongly sensitive to currency fluctuations tend to have higher stock returns over the short to medium run. In addition, the research finds that information in the forward currency rate structure can be used to improve the predictability for such firms.The second section takes a risk-based approach, and tests whether or not currency risk is a systematic risk factor worldwide. The findings suggest that currency risk is largely characterized as a regional — as opposed to global — consideration. However, firm fundamentals that tend to drive variation in currency exposure (such as firm size or profitability) are considerations that extend beyond regional boundaries. The section shows that because of that, worldwide systematic predictability as a result of currency exposure can still be achieved, even if the worldwide returns to that exposure are not homogeneous.