Currency Exchange Rate Fluctuations Research Articles

Methodological provision of analysis of the efficiency of investment activities of enterprises

The paper is devoted to the disclosure of the main provisions of methodological support for the analysis of the investment activity of enterprises and practical recommendations on the use of methods for evaluating the effectiveness of the implementation of investment projects for decision-making. Making investment decisions is based on the use of various formalized and informal methods and models, taking into account the following factors: changes in the value of money over time; alternative value of resources; cash flows generated by the project; uncertainty and risk; inflation, price changes and currency exchange rate fluctuations; investment goals and investor psychology; possible changes in project parameters; synergies between investment projects of the enterprise. When forming the list of monitoring indicators, those aspects of the business entity's investment activity that are most important for owners, investors and management organizers were highlighted. It is proposed to form a system of performance indicators of the enterprise's investment activity in accordance with the sphere of investment: production, marketing, technology, organization. The principles of investment activity analysis and recommendations on the procedures for analyzing the effectiveness of project implementation have been formed, the choice of which depends on the management goals aimed at achieving a stable cash flow and ensuring the financial stability of the enterprise. The essential characteristics, advantages and disadvantages of the existing approaches to evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects are revealed. A system of indicators and criteria for the analysis of the effectiveness of investment activities of indicators characterizing the effectiveness of investments depending on the sphere of investment of funds: production, marketing, technology, organization are proposed. Recommendations for choosing a specific method for evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects in the context of achieving the priority goal - maximizing project profitability, risk acceptability and investors' interests are substantiated.

International Business Law and Regulations

This section covers foreign business corporation law and other corporate legislation. Foreign commerce may boost revenues, customer base, and product quality. Currency exchange rate fluctuations may help businesses attract more talent. International commercial law governs international interactions via conventions, treaties, national laws, and economic practices. It's also called common law. These policies allow nations to cooperate in commerce, licensing, tariffs, taxes, and other commercial areas. Foreign commerce may help a corporation increase sales, revenue, and product durability. Currency exchange rate fluctuations may help businesses attract more talent. Every Fortune 500 firm has foreign branches and global customers, thus they must comply with international rules and regulations to join international markets. Since Covid-19, globalization's importance has increased. The pandemic has made worldwide commerce more important for all enterprises. One-third of these companies want worldwide growth, and 50% of their CEOs say the epidemic has changed their view on exporting. Context: Rephrase the query and underline the investigation's importance; The second half of our review paper contains over fifty scholarly reviews on international business and trade law. These descriptions explain the rules' most unusual methods. In conclusion, the essay's main points are summarized.

Comparative Analysis of Open Position and Hedging Techniques in The Import Value Management of PT Pertamina (Persero)

Fluctuations in currency exchange rates result in the value of the company's debt of import payment to be uncertain because any time may be changing. Companies can do hedge techniques to protect the value of the import debt or leave it in a state without the hedge. The purpose of this research is to know the value of the company's debt of import when using forward contract hedge, money market hedge, and open position and choose the most efficient method. This research uses import transaction data of PT Pertamina (Persero). The analysis technique used is the Wilcoxon Signed Ranks Test and calculation with Microsoft Excel. From this research, it is found that there is no difference in the average value of the company's import debt when using forward contract hedging technique with an open position. But there is a difference when using money market hedge technique with the open position. The result of the research is the value of import debt is more efficient when the company uses open position or without the hedge.

Pengaruh Fluktuasi Kurs Mata Uang terhadap Harga Saham Pt. Bank Central Asia, Tbk di Indonesia

This research was conducted to measure the exchange rate (exchange rate) against stock prices at PT. Bank Central Asia, Tbk in Indonesia in 2018 and to find how much these factors have an effect. The research method used was quantitative with associative techniques and simple linear regression. The sample in this study is the exchange rate and shares of PT. Bank Central Asia, Tbk in the monthly period throughout 2018. Data observation techniques are carried out using document observation techniques sourced from official website of Bank Indonesia (www.bi.go.id) as well as the official website of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (www.idx.co .id) for the share price. The results obtained show a significant value (sig) of XXX with a probability of The value of this value which is smaller than this probability indicates that there is an effect of currency exchange fluctuations on stock prices. Therefore, H0 is rejected and H1 is accepted. The conclusion of this study is that currency exchange rate fluctuations can affect stock prices by XX%.

Effect of Market Value Ratios on Stock Price Volatility of Listed Companies on Nairobi Securities Exchange in Kenya

Stock price volatility is widely regarded as one of the factors eroding investor confidence in the world's money markets. The share price fluctuates dramatically depending on a variety of factors. Knowledge of such factors and their potential impact on share prices is highly valuable because it enables investors to make sound investment decisions and firms to increase their market value. This article examined the effect of market to book value ration and earnings per share on stock price volatilities of listed firms in Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE). It employed a longitudinal research design specifically random effect model and fond substantive evidence that both market to book value ratio and earnings per share are negatively affect stock price volatilities. Stock price volatilities varied from one firm to the other. These deviations may be as a result internal and external factors. Both have an impact on stock price fluctuations. The article suggests these internal factors may include the company's earnings, annual asset growth, liquidity, total net worth, and sales. External factors include government policies and their impact, other maybe interest rate movements, currency exchange rate fluctuations, and market sentiment, and the merger.

Machine learning based forecasting of significant daily returns in foreign exchange markets

Asset value forecasting has always attracted an enormous amount of interest among researchers in quantitative analysis. The advent of modern machine learning models has introduced new tools to tackle this classical problem. In this paper, we apply machine learning algorithms to hitherto unexplored question of forecasting instances of significant fluctuations in currency exchange rates. We perform analysis of nine modern machine learning algorithms using data on four major currency pairs over a 10 year period. A key contribution is the novel use of outlier detection methods for this purpose. Numerical experiments show that outlier detection methods substantially outperform traditional machine learning and finance techniques. In addition, we show that a recently proposed new outlier detection method PKDE produces best overall results. Our findings hold across different currency pairs, significance levels, and time horizons indicating the robustness of the proposed method.

Profit bridges that disambiguate impacts of currency fluctuations from other marketing variables

We extend the normalized approach to constructing profit bridges proffered in a recent paper to examine the impact of currency exchange rate fluctuations within a multinational corporation. In doing so, we describe a profit bridge that would measure corporate performance distinct from that which would measure the performance of business units, including metrics for the impact of volume, price, variable cost, offering mix, and exchange rate changes.

Оцінка стану державного боргу України та напрями його оптимізації

The article aims at studying the current state of Ukraine's national debt and developing directions for its optimization. It is established that the currency component in the structure of Ukraine's national debt is slightly lower than the threshold level for the currency component in the debt structure set by the IMF for developing countries. This structure of Ukraine’s national debt indicates the dependence of the domestic financial system on currency exchange rate fluctuations and the need to increase foreign exchange costs for servicing debt obligations. The amount of debt on loans from international financial organizations and government agencies of foreign countries comprises about a third of the total amount of national and guaranteed debt, indicating significant support Ukraine receives from its international partners, especially from the International Monetary Fund. The currency component in Ukraine’s national and state-guaranteed debt indicates high vulnerability of its financial system to currency shocks. It is established that the structure of Ukraine’s national and state-guaranteed debt by types of interest rates is quite optimistic and indicates a low vulnerability of public finances to interest rate risks. The size of Ukraine’s national and state-guaranteed debt in hryvnia equivalent increased during 2013–2020 by more than 4.4 times, and its growth in USD was quite moderate. It is determined that during 2020 the size of Ukraine’s national and state-guaranteed debt increased by 27.7% in hryvnia equivalent, due to the following situations: financing the state budget deficit; the allocation of funds to combat COVID-19; national currency devaluation, etc. The ratio of national and state-guaranteed debt to GDP, reaching a maximum of 81.0% at the end of 2016, gradually decreased to 50.3% at the end of 2019, which corresponds to the norm established by the national legislation. However, the values of this index for the period under review exceed the threshold level of national debt set by international standards for countries with emerging markets (30-50% of GDP). It is shown that the 2013 2019 period saw a tendency to increase the total cost of repayment and servicing of Ukraine’s national debt, which creates the risk of refinancing national debt, causes additional pressure on the state budget and GDP, and limits Ukraine’s ability to finance its social and economic goals of social development. The main risks for Ukraine’s debt obligations are highlighted, and ways to optimize them are outlined. The need to establish a National Debt Management Agency, the activity of which would help reduce both the debt burden and the cost of public debt servicing, is substantiated.

Türkiye sığır besiciliğinde yapısal durum ve sektörel analiz

Türkiye’de 2018 yılı itibariyle toplam kırmızı et üretiminin %89,73’ünü (1.003.859 ton) sığır eti oluşturmaktadır. Sığır besiciliğinde maliyeti oluşturan masraf unsurları içerisinde besi materyali ve yem başta gelmektedir. Son yıllarda artan nüfus ve talep düzeyine bağlı olarak piyasada oluşan kırmızı et arz açığı başta kasaplık-besilik hayvan ve karkas et ithalatına gidilmesine yol açmıştır. 2016-2018 yılları arasındaki 3 yıllık dönemde kasaplık ve besilik sığır ithalatı sırasıyla 257.131 baş ve 1.972.224 baş olarak gerçekleşmiştir. Yapılan bu ithalatın değeri 2.448.225.330 USD (9.044.379.646 TL) olarak hesaplanmıştır. Besiciler üzerinde son dönemde artan üretim maliyetleri ile gümrük vergisi avantajıyla yurtiçine giren ithal kasaplık hayvan ve ete bağlı olarak yıkıcı bir rekabet ortamı ve fiyat baskısı oluşmuştur. Diğer taraftan sığır besi işletmelerinin karlılık düzeyleri azalmış ve sektörel sürdürülebilirlik olumsuz yönde etkilenmiştir. Son 2 yılda yaklaşık 20 bin sığır besi işletmesi kapanmış veya faaliyetini durdurmuştur. Türkiye genelinde 264.230 adet sığır besi işletmesi mevcut olup, bu işletmelerin %64,02’si 10 başın altında hayvana sahip küçük ölçekli işletmelerdir. Sığır besiciliğinde 50 baş ve üzeri işletmelerin toplam işletmeler içerisindeki payı ise sadece %5,07’dir. Buna karşın büyük ölçekli olarak sınıflandırılan bu işletmeler 1.532.564 baş sığır varlığı ile besi sığırlarının %38,41’ine sahip bulunmaktadır. Sığır besiciliğinde üretim maliyetleri üzerinde etkili olan başlıca faktörler arasında besi süresi, hayvanın menşei, kullanılan ırkın verim özellikleri, günlük canlı ağırlık artışı, yem rasyon içeriği, yem hammadde fiyatlarındaki değişim, döviz kurundaki dalgalanmalar, besi performansı ve karkas randımanı, işletme girdilerinin dönemsel tutarı, hastalık ve ölüm oranları gibi unsurlar yer almaktadır. Sektörde üretimin sürdürülebilirliği açısından uygun fiyat ve kalitede yem ile besi materyali tedariki başta olmak üzere sığır besi işletmelerinde maliyet minimizasyonu amacıyla gerekli önlemlerin alınması, işletmelerin sınıflandırılarak desteklenmesi yanı sıra kârlı ve optimum ölçekte faaliyet göstermeleri için uygun piyasa koşullarının sağlanması, perakende et satış fiyatları üzerinden üreticiye aktarılan marjın artırılması ve pazarlama zincirindeki aracı sayısının azaltılarak tüketici için daha uygun fiyattan et satın alabilecekleri bir piyasanın temin edilmesi önem taşımaktadır.

Buyer-supplier currency exchange rate flexibility contracts in global supply chains

This paper analyzes a decentralized global supply chain under a newsvendor setting, where a supplier delivers a certain quantity of a single product to a buyer in accordance with the terms of a mutually agreed upon contract. This contract is signed prior to the delivery of the product and subsequent payment, thus, exposing the supply chain to the risk of currency exchange rate fluctuations. We propose two types of currency exchange rate flexibility contracts to explore the characteristics of exchange rate risk mitigation policies for the buyer and the supplier. Furthermore, we investigate the effects of the contract structures on the optimal order quantity, as well as the expected profits of both supply chain members. Our results show that the optimal order quantity of the buyer decreases when the wholesale price is uncertain due to exchange rate volatility. Also, both our proposed contracts tend to improve the expected profits of both the buyer and the supplier, when the payment is made in the supplier’s currency, indicating the desirability of adopting such contractual agreements from the perspective of both parties. On the other hand, when the payment is made in the buyer’s currency, our suggested contracts do not yield such win-win scenarios. Finally, we examine the effectiveness of availing the services of a local vendor, which is capable of satisfying any demand in excess of the quantity ordered from the foreign source with short notice, in order to mitigate the risks associated with an overseas order.

Конкурентоспособность продукции лесного сектора: новые уроки из анализа внешней торговли

<span>В статье рассмотрена проблема управления конкурентоспособностью продукции лесной промышленности применительно к регионам России. Выявлено, что региональные различия растут с увеличением добавленной стоимости продукции. Показаны особенности внешней торговли субъектов Российской Федерации лесопромышленными товарами низкой, средней и высокой степени обработки. Определены основные тенденции, характеризующие динамику развития лесного сектора в последние годы. Показано, что появившиеся из-за перепадов валютных курсов преимущества для экспортёров не способствуют развитию производства продукции высоких переделов. Обозначены проблемы, препятствующие развитию лесной промышленности России: дефицит инфраструктуры и кадров, тяжёлое финансовое состояние предприятий, обезлесение, игнорирование мировых тенденций в отрасли. Предложены меры государственной поддержки лесопромышленного комплекса с учётом выявленных региональных различий. Определены пять общих принципов государственной политики управления конкурентоспособностью.</span>

Effect of currency exchange rate fluctuations on Aid Effectiveness in the Health Sector in Zambia.

Development assistance for health (DAH) remains a significant and important source of health financing in many low and lower middle-income countries. However, this assistance has not been fully effective. This study explores the effect of currency exchange rate fluctuations on volatility of DAH in Zambia using a mixed methods approach. Data covering the period 1997-2008 were collected from various financial and programmatic reports, while six key informant interviews were conducted to validate and translate findings from the quantitative analysis. Results show fluctuations in the volume of funds disbursed to the Ministry of Health by donors due to changes in the exchange rates between non-US$ currencies and the US$, ranging from -11.1% to +13.4% during the period 1997-2008. The overall effect was a loss of US$ 13.4 million over the period 1997-2008 which is equivalent to an annual average loss of US$ 1.1 million per annum. There were also fluctuations in the US$ amount that was converted to the Zambian Kwacha to fund districts ranging from -22% to +22% over the same period. The monthly average loss that was incurred was US$ 302 214 per month, but large gains and losses were observed when individual months were analysed. Information from key informants suggest that currency exchange rate losses contribute to reductions in the health workforce, quantity and quality of health services, while currency exchange rate gains can contribute to reduced absorption capacity and/or low utilization of financial resources. The study concludes that fluctuations in currency exchange rates contribute to volatility in DAH, reduces financial stability and leads to unpredictability of DAH which ultimately affects health service delivery. For DAH to be effective, governments and donors should increase awareness and work systematically to mitigate currency exchange risks.

Dynamics of exchange rate determination and currency order flow in the Thailand foreign exchange market

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to present the essential role that currency order flow plays in the foreign exchange markets of emerging economies in the determination of their currencies in the short and the long-run against major currencies of the world, which cannot be over emphasized, most especially against the US dollar. Insomuch that, if some of these emerging economies can be successfully transmitted into full development, it would be a good model for other emerging economies and the world at large.Design/methodology/approachA hybrid model (portfolio shift model) proposed by Evans and Lyons (2002a, 2002b) is extended to analyze a data set of every quarter of an hour currency order flow and currency exchange rate fluctuations of Thai Baht (THB) against the US$ for the period of six years (January 2010 to December 2015). To reflect the pressure of currency excess demand, the authors construct a measure of currency order flow in the Thailand currency exchange market. Vector autoregression model is applied to estimate the effectual role of currency order flow in the determination of exchange rate for the THB against the US$.FindingsCurrency order flow indeed accounted for a sizeable and significant portion of the fluctuations in the THB and the US$ exchange rate.Originality/valueInsomuch that, the results show that currency order flow has significant explanatory power in the emerging markets economy to capture the THB exchange rate variability, and it then brings to the attention of the Thailand Monetary Authority the importance that should be attached to the market microstructure.

The Risk of Hipothecary Credic Indexed to Swiss Franc

The idea of crediting and credit repayment is based on an assumption that each payment of the principal reduces the debt balance. This tendency is not followed in case of the hypothecary credit al-lowed and paid out in PLN and indexed to Swiss franc. Here, the balance of principal repaid in PLN is a function of currency exchange rate fluctuations. The situation denies then the idea of credit, according to which “you pay back as much as borrowed”. The cost of credit, calculated as a total of the LIBOR – credit in CHF (WIBOR – credit in PLN) rate and the bank’s margin specified in the contract. The purpose of the paper is to prove that a banking product like this does not meet the standards of crediting, the principal balance being dependent on the unforeseeable direction of changes. The purpose of the paper is to design a model of risk of the hypothecary credit indexed to Swiss franc, to enable the measurement of the loan payment risk. The model design methodology assumes control variables of the risk monitoring process to be included in the model structure. The estimated loan payment risk measures have revealed an upturn in the loan payment risk related to higher PLN/CHF rates and the resultant higher cost of credit accompanied by the loan principal growth. The risk dynamics estimations for the years 2006-2012 support the research thesis – the banking product analysed does not show the characteristics of a loan. Under growing PLN/CHF rates, the loan principal indexation translates into the debt balance escalation.

Capital Accumulation in a Region. Cooperatives Versus Foreign Direct Investments

AbstractThe main aim of this article is to demonstrate the ability of cooperatives to create internal resources of a region through foreign direct investments and the creation of financial, physical, human, and social capital. It concerns the comparing and emphasizing of the stability of resources created in a region by these forms of action. In order to demonstrate the stability of internal resources of a region, generated through foreign direct investment, a research was conducted involving the analysis of the rankings of the largest foreign investors in Poland, statistical data from the Central Statistical Office and the NBP, showing the inflow and outflow of FDIs, the number of companies with foreign capital participation, and the number of people working in them. In addition, a case study was used for the regions where the investments have been withdrawn, showing the importance of cooperatives for the stabilization of the potential of the regions. The study shows that the transfer of FDIs is always guided by the maximization of profit, tax optimization of a location, and the native currency exchange rate fluctuations. The following consequences of withdrawal have no significance to foreign investors but affect the regions: the increase in the unemployment rate, the reduction in the income of local residents, the increase in debt, the acquisition of real estate purchased on credit. The case study shows that cooperative enterprises can replace foreign capital in the region, ensuring the stability and durability of its internal resources. The concepts and strategies for regional development should focus on cooperatives as a way to create the internal resources of a region, which are seen as the current development source. Co-operatives can prevent the leaching of resources and backwash effects. The economic policy must ensure the equal treatment of all of the entities investing in the region. Currently, Poland gives the priority to foreign investors over the domestic ones. Cooperative enterprises are particularly discriminated against through double taxation. It is worthwhile to examine the scale of the cooperative movement in the economy of the EU and the US and the policy instruments applied to this form of business in those areas.

Return predictability in emerging equity market sectors

ABSTRACTThis article investigates the predictive power of technical trading rules in the emerging equity market sector portfolios and finds that trading strategies based on technical indicators significantly outperform the buy-and-hold benchmark. Combination of data snooping bias, data measurement errors in the form of non-synchronicity bias and fluctuations in currency exchange rates is unable to explain the observed outperformance. The introduction of transaction costs tempers the results but technical analysis still possesses significant predictive power for a number of sectors. The performance of technical analysis in the emerging equity market sectors does not conform to historical trends observed in the developed equity markets as well as in the emerging equity markets when broadly diversified portfolios are considered, where predictive power of technical trading rules has been shown to decline over time.

Pengaruh Kurs Rupiah Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham (Studi Pada Indeks Saham Syariah Indonesia Periode 2011-2013)

Sensitivity of stock market is appeared when the domestic currency exchange rate fluctuations happened. Uncontrolled currency fluctuations will affect the performance of capital market entities which have an impact on stock price movement. This thesis is to determine the effect of exchange rate on ISSI stock price index in the 2011-2013 periods.This thesis uses a quantitative approach to analyze secondary data whichrepresented by exchange rate and ISSI stock price index. Those values are monthly data over the period 2011-2013. This thesis also uses a significance level of 5%.The regression result in this thesis indicates that the exchange rate variable has a significant effect partially on ISSI stock price index in the 2011-2013 periods.

The Foreign Exchange Exposure of Non-Financial Companies in Eurozone: Myth or Reality?

The authors of this paper are looking for answers: are domestic companies operating in small market economies such as the Baltics with little or no direct foreign involvement also at risk, taking into account that our companies mainly as a mean of exchange are using euro. The aim of this study is to examine the foreign exchange rate exposure of domestic corporations in the Baltic States. The study shows that companies in the Baltic States tend not to manage their foreign exchange risk properly and some of the companies are thus exposed to significant losses due to fluctuations in currency exchange rates. The VaR estimates are proposed and evaluated as a method to measure the position that is necessary to hedge.

Disney's Return to Theme Park Dominance in Florida

This paper investigates the increasing evidence that Disney has restored its market share dominance and price leadership power in the Central Florida theme park market, while reasserting this region as the base for its global empire. Disney appears to have weathered deep-pocketed challenges from Universal Studios and Las Vegas Hotels successfully, as well as addressing concerns about its ageing brands, adverse demographic trends and post-9/11 international travel restrictions. After analysing attendance data series and updating ticket price patterns, the authors design a classical attendance demand model to investigate alternative explanations for Disney's surprising re-emergence. The model generates estimates of critical elasticities with rival theme park admission prices, gasoline prices, airfares, income and currency exchange rate fluctuations. These findings are pitted against conventional wisdom in explaining Disney's resurgence.

Impacts of Globalization on Agricultural Competitiveness: The Case of NAFTA

Major components of agricultural competitiveness, including definitions, factors, and indicators of competitiveness, are discussed. The case of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is used to illustrate how factors have influenced the competitive position of the NAFTA countries. Traditional neoclassical trade theory is used to evaluate the impact of currency exchange rate fluctuations and trade preferences on agricultural competitiveness. Pre- and post-NAFTA market shares are evaluated for five agricultural commodities of importance to the southern United States. The results of these evaluations are compared with theoretical expectations and discussed with special emphasis on implications for future trade negotiations.