Cumulative Slip Research Articles

Do slip-weakening laws shapes influence rupture dynamics?

To model rupture dynamics, a friction law must be assumed. Commonly used constitutive laws include slip-weakening laws which are characterized by a drop from static to dynamic frictional stress over a critical slip distance. Within this framework, the prevailing understanding asserts that the frictional behavior is solely controlled by the fracture energy – the area beneath the frictional stress versus the cumulative slip curve. In particular, it is claimed that the curve’s shape itself has no influence on the system’s response. Here we perform fully dynamic rupture simulations to challenge prevailing beliefs by demonstrating that the constitutive law shape exerts an intimate control over rupture dynamics. These results are confirmed using two independent numerical schemes (spectral boundary integral and finite element methods). For a consistent fracture energy but varying constitutive weakening law shapes, the slip velocity profile is different: each abrupt slope transition leads to the localization of a distinct velocity peak. For example, in the case of a bilinear slip-weakening law featuring two different slopes, the rupture exhibits two distinct velocity peaks. This phenomenon arises from the transition between a constant weakening rate to another. We show that ruptures with the same fracture energy but different constitutive law shapes may respond differently to stress barriers, especially when cumulative slip is below the critical slip Dc. In these cases, variations in effective fracture energy across different laws lead to differing outcomes: under one law, a rupture may propagate past a barrier, while under another, it may arrest. These findings underscore the critical role of constitutive law shape on rupture dynamics, influencing the response to small-scale asperities and heterogeneities and to larger-scale barriers, and highlighting the importance of both fracture energy and weakening mechanisms for seismic hazard assessment.

Satellite Geodesy Uncovers 15 m of Slip on a Detachment Fault Prior to the 2018 Collapse at Anak Krakatau, Indonesia

AbstractOn 22 December 2018, parts of the Anak Krakatau edifice collapsed, triggering a deadly tsunami. To investigate pre‐collapse surface displacements, we analyzed Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar satellite geodetic data from 2006 to 2018, acquired from ALOS‐1 (2006–2011), COSMO‐SkyMED (2012–2018), and Sentinel‐1 (2014–2018). We identified line‐of‐sight displacements on the southwestern flank throughout the study period. Inversion of COSMO‐SkyMED data revealed a rectangular dislocation with a cumulative slip of 12 m from April 2012 to December 2018. Fixing the fault geometry, we found the optimal slip for time periods corresponding to slip rate changes, ranging from 1.2 to 3.1 m/yr. The slip estimates for ALOS‐1 and Sentinel‐1 data were 0.88 m/yr and 1.1 m/yr, respectively, over their individual time periods. Overall, the detachment fault experienced approximately 15 m of slip from 2006 to 2018 with acceleration and deceleration periods, and a notable acceleration prior to the 2018 collapse.

Uncovering the Fracturing Mechanism of Granite Under Compressive–Shear Loads for Sustainable Hot Dry Rock Geothermal Exploitation

Shear-dominated hazards, such as induced earthquakes, pose an escalating threat to the sustainability and safety of the geothermal exploitation. Variations in fault orientations and compression–shear stress ratios exert a profound influence on the failure processes underlying these disasters. To better understand these effects on the shear failure mechanisms of hot dry rocks, mode-II fracturing tests on granites were conducted at varying loading angles (specifically, 55°, 60°, 65°, and 70°). These tests were accompanied by a comprehensive analysis of the mechanical properties, energy dissipation behavior, acoustic emission (AE) responses, and digital image correlation (DIC)-extracted displacement fields. The tensile–shear properties of stress-induced microcracks were discerned via AE characteristic parameter analysis and DIC displacement decomposition, and the mode-II fracture energy release rate was quantitatively characterized. The results reveal that with increasing compression–shear loading angles, the mechanical properties of granites are weakened, and the elastic strain energy at peak stress gradually decreases, while the slip-related dissipated energy increases. Throughout the fracturing process, the AE count progressively climbs and reaches a peak near catastrophic failure, with an upsurge in low-frequency and high-amplitude AE events. Microcrack distribution concentrates aggregation along the shear plane, reflecting the emergent displacement discontinuities evident in DIC contours. Both the AE characteristic parameter analysis and DIC displacement decomposition demonstrate that shear-sliding constitutes the paramount mechanism, and the fraction of shear-oriented microcracks and the ratio of tangential versus normal displacement escalate with increases in shear stress. This analysis is supported by the heightened propensity for transgranular microcracking events observed through scanning electron microscopy. As the shear-to-compression stress increases, the energy concentration along the shear band intensifies, with the gradient of the fitting line between cumulative AE energy and slip displacement steepening, indicative of a heightened mode-II energy release rate. These results contribute to a deeper understanding of the mode-II fracture mechanism of rocks, thereby providing a foundational basis for early warnings of shear-dominant geomechanical disasters, and improving the safety and sustainability of subsurface rock engineering.

Why Do Great Continental Transform Earthquakes Nucleate on Branch Faults?

Abstract The five Mw≥7.8 continental transform earthquakes since 2000 all nucleated on branch faults. This includes the 2001 Mw 7.8 Kokoxili, 2002 Mw 7.9 Denali, 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan, 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura, and 2023 Mw 7.8 Pazarcık events. A branch or splay is typically an immature fault that connects to the transform at an oblique angle and can have a different rake and dip than the transform. The branch faults ruptured for at least 25 km before they joined the transforms, which then ruptured an additional 250–450 km, in all but one case (Pazarcık) unilaterally. Branch fault nucleation is also likely for the 1939 M 7.8 Erzincan earthquake, possible for the 1906 Mw∼7.8 and 1857 Mw∼7.9 San Andreas earthquakes, but not for the 1990 Mw 7.7 Luzon, 2013 Mw 7.7 Balochistan, and 2023 Mw 7.7 Elbistan events. Here, we argue that because fault continuity and cataclastite within the fault damage zone develop through cumulative fault slip, mature transforms are pathways for dynamic rupture. Once a rupture enters the transform from the branch fault, flash shear heating causes pore fluid pressurization and sudden weakening in the cataclastite, resulting in very low dynamic friction. But the static friction on transforms is high, and so they are usually far from failure, which could be why they tend to be aseismic between, or at least for centuries after, great events. This could explain why the largest continental transform earthquakes either begin on a branch fault or nucleate along the transform at locations where the damage zone is absent or the fault continuity is disrupted by bends or echelons, as in the 1999 Mw 7.6 İzmit earthquake. Recognition of branch fault nucleation could be used to strengthen earthquake early warning in regions such as California, New Zealand, and Türkiye with transform faults.

Effect of Laser Parameters on Fracture Properties of Laser-Repaired Cracks with Micro/NanoMaterial Addition: Multiscale Analysis.

In laser crack repair processes, laser parameters have significant influence on repair quality. Improper combination of laser process parameters may result in defects-such as porosity, ablation, and coarse grain size-in remelted zones. A trans-scale computational model is established by combining crystal plasticity finite elements and variable-node finite elements. The influence of microstructure characteristics such as grain size and porosity of the repair layer on the cumulative plastic slip (CPS) on the dominant slip system at the meso-scale and the J-integral at the macro-scale is studied to explore the effect of laser process parameters on repair quality. The results show that when the laser power is 1800 W and the heating time is 0.5 s, the grain size and porosity of the repaired specimen are the smallest. The J-integral of the repaired specimen is more than 8% smaller than that of the unrepaired specimen and about 3% smaller than that of the repaired specimen, with a laser power of 2000 W and a heating time of 1 s. Pores increase the CPS of the crystal around the pores, especially when a pore have sharp corners. Selecting appropriate laser process parameters can not only refine grain size but also reduce the volume fraction of pores and thus reduce the J-integral and eventually improve repair quality of repaired specimens. The study investigates the relationship of process parameter-microstructure-repair quality in the laser repair process and provides a method for studying the mechanical behavior of materials at macro and micro scales.

Early postseismic slip of the 21 November 2022 Mw 5.6 Cianjur, Indonesia, earthquake based on GPS measurements

ABSTRACT Global Positioning System (GPS) data after the 21 November 2022 Mw 5.6 Cianjur earthquake are crucial for understanding the physical processes during the postseismic phase. New continuous GPS stations were installed and recorded data for periods ranging from five to twenty-five days after the mainshock. The daily time series data at GPS stations shows an evolving logarithmic decay over time, as expected due to frictional afterslip. We inverted the postseismic displacement data to solve the postseismic slip distribution, utilising Akaike’s Bayesian information criterion. A cumulative aseismic slip moment of 1.54 × 1016 N·m, equivalent to Mw 4.7, is modelled during the period from five to twenty-five days after the mainshock. This aseismic slip moment is equivalent to approximately 7% of the seismic moment during the mainshock. Our analysis on the newly identified active fault using GPS displacements highlights the imperative need to identify active faults prior to future earthquake occurrences, especially when conducting hazard mitigation in populated regions in Indonesia.

Surface Rupture and Fault Characteristics Associated With the 2020 Magnitude (MW) 6.6 Masbate Earthquake, Masbate Island, Philippines

AbstractOn 18 August 2020, Masbate Island was struck by a magnitude (MW) 6.6 earthquake. This seismic event represents the second occurrence of a strong earthquake (M > 6) in 17 years, emphasizing the necessity for further investigation into the characteristics of this event. In this study, we employ Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar, seismicity analysis, and field investigations to comprehensively characterize the coseismic and postseismic slip associated with the event. Our findings reveal a 50‐km‐long fault rupture along the Masbate segment of the Philippine Fault, with ∼23 km surface rupture mapped onshore, despite the occurrence of interseismic creep. The slip distribution demonstrates decreasing displacements northwestward toward the creeping section, with a maximum left‐lateral displacement of 0.97 m near the epicenter. Toward the southeast offshore, the rupture terminates at a left stepover of a fault. While the surface rupture appears relatively straight and narrowly concentrated, the secondary ruptures and mapped offshore faults reveal a more complex transtensional fault structure in the southeastern part of Masbate Island. This fault complexity represents an asperity that facilitates high‐stress accumulation and rupture initiation. Postseismic slip persists for several months along the onshore creeping segment. Based on comprehensive measurements of both cumulative and coseismic slip along the Masbate fault segment, we calculate a slip rate ranging between 2.8 and 3.8 cm/year and a recurrence interval of 16–41 years for earthquakes similar to the 2020 earthquake. Our study highlights how heterogeneity in fault properties, including geometry and coupling state, influences the distribution of slip and magnitude of earthquakes. The 2020 Masbate earthquake provides valuable insights into the rupture dynamics and fault behavior of the Philippine Fault in the Masbate region.

Dynamic reliability and seismic fragility analysis for high concrete-faced rockfill dam slopes subjected to stochastic earthquake and parameter excitation via PDEM

The randomness of material parameters and earthquake excitation greatly impacts the seismic stability of high concrete-faced rockfill dam (CFRD) slopes. However, no research has comprehensively analyzed the impacts of stochastic earthquake excitations, random parameters and their coupled effects on seismic stability of CFRD slopes and selected a multi-indicator evaluation criterion to carry out performance-based safety assessment. This paper develops a novel and comprehensive framework for evaluating the seismic stability of CFRD slopes based on the generalized probability density evolution method (GPDEM) with high efficiency and accuracy. The effects of three kinds of randomness on seismic stability of CFRD slopes were comprehensively compared and analyzed on the basis of multi-indices (safety factor (FS), cumulative slip displacement and cumulative time with FS < 1.0). Firstly, the nonlinear shear strength parameters of 40 high CFRDs were statistically collected to obtain the statistical characteristics of rockfill material strength parameters of actual CFRD projects. Secondly, three kinds of random samples were generated using generalized F-discrepancy (GF-discrepancy) method and Spectral expression-Random function (SERF) method. Then, the GPDEM was introduced to combine with three indices to perform the stochastic analysis and reliability evaluation. Finally, the fragility analysis of the CFRD slope was conducted. The results reveal that FS is more sensitive to the ground motions randomness, while cumulative slip displacement and cumulative time with FS < 1.0 are more sensitive to the material parameters randomness. The seismic safety evaluation of CFRD slopes based on multiple indices with full consideration of coupled randomness effects is necessary.

Tectonic geomorphology and paleoseismology of the Angelochori fault segment of the Anthemountas extensional detachment fault, Central Macedonia, Greece: Paleoseismic evidence from the 1677 CE earthquake

This study presents the results of a geomorphological and paleoseismological investigation on the Angelochori normal fault. This fault controls the southern boundary of the Anthemountas basin and constitutes the western segment of the Anthemountas extensional detachment fault (AEDF), a ∼48 km-long, E-W-trending, north-dipping low-angle normal fault in Central Macedonia, Greece. To assess the relative tectonic activity of the Angelochori fault and to determine the number, timing, and displacement of surface-faulting earthquakes, we conducted detailed field mapping and paleoseismological investigations. Our approach involved utilizing geomorphic indices, analyzing stratigraphic and structural relations, considering luminescence ages, and employing OxCal modeling techniques. The acquired data reveal, for the first time, the Middle-Late Holocene activity of the Anghelochori fault, providing constraints on the age of three strong (M > 6) surface-rupturing earthquakes over the last ∼7.7 ka. The youngest of these events aligns with the historical earthquake of the Anthemountas basin in 1677 CE. The observed minimum displacement per event ranges from 0.48 m to 0.65 m, consistent with a fault length estimated at about 24–28 km, suggesting an earthquake magnitude on the order of 6.6. The cumulative slip rate over the recorded period averages 0.21 ± 0.02 mm/a, with an average open recurrence interval of 2.6 ± 0.2 ka. Nonetheless, the displacement pattern displays alternating intervals of rapid slip at 0.60 ± 0.16 mm/a and slower slip at 0.08 ± 0.01 mm/a. Classified as Class 1, the Angelochori fault signifies an active tectonic structure posing a significant seismic hazard for the Thessaloniki metropolitan area.

Slip‐Dependence of Fault Frictional Stability Under Hydrothermal Conditions

AbstractIn the rate‐state friction law framework, the transition from velocity weakening (V‐W) to velocity strengthening (V‐S) behavior marks the base of the seismogenic crust. Here we investigate the role of fault slip displacement under hydrothermal conditions in controlling the V‐W to V‐S transition. We shear simulated gabbro gouges at slip velocities ranging from 16 nm/s (∼50 cm/year) to 10 μm/s (∼8 cm/day) under hydrothermal conditions (300–400°C temperature; 30 MPa pore fluid pressure). We observe that cumulative fault slip increases the critical velocity for the V‐W to V‐S transition. The transition is accompanied by localized to distributed deformation mode, the formation of smectite‐type clays and occurrence of intergranular mass transfer. Our results provide insights into understanding the deepening and shallowing of V‐W/V‐S boundary (lower limit of the seismogenic zone) following a mainshock. Besides strain rate effects, slip‐enhanced chemical alteration and grain size‐sensitive deformation may temporarily contribute to the shallowing process.

What Controls Early Restraining Bend Growth? Structural, Morphometric, and Numerical Modeling Analyses From the Eastern California Shear Zone

AbstractRestraining bends influence topography, strike‐slip evolution, and earthquake rupture dynamics, however the specific factors governing their geometry and development in the crust are not well established. These relationships are challenging to investigate in field examples due to cannibalization and erosion of earlier structures with cumulative strain. To address this knowledge gap, we investigated the structure, morphology, and kinematics of 22 basement‐cored restraining bends on low net‐slip faults (&lt;10 km) within the southern Eastern California shear zone (SECSZ) via mapping, topographic analyses, and 3D numerical modeling. The bends are self‐similar in form with most exhibiting focused relief between high‐angle bounding faults with an arrowhead shape in map view and a “whaleback” longitudinal profile. Slight changes in that form occur with increasing size indicating predictable growth that appears to be primarily controlled by local fault geometries (i.e., bifurcation angle), rather than the influence of fault obliquity relative to far‐field plate motion, due to inefficient slip‐transfer across interconnected irregularly trending closely spaced faults. Modeling results indicate that the self‐similar fault‐bound geometry of SECSZ restraining bends may arise from elevated shear strain at the outer corners of single transpressional fault bends with increasing cumulative slip. This, in turn, promotes growth of a new fault leading to efficient accommodation of local convergent strain via uplift between bounding faults. Finally, our results indicate that the kilometer‐scale restraining bends contribute minimally to regional contraction as they only penetrate the upper third of the seismogenic crust and are therefore also unlikely to impede large earthquake surface ruptures.

Numerical experiment toward simultaneous estimation of the spatiotemporal evolution of interseismic fault slips and block motions in southwest Japan

Interseismic strain around southwest Japan can be attributed to slip phenomena on the plate interface and processes inside the continental plate, such as block motions and inland fault slips. Although many crustal deformation analyses have been carried out, the simultaneous estimation of these phenomena and comprehensive discussion regarding the effect on the total strain budget remain topics to be investigated. In this study, we conducted numerical experiment to evaluate the possibility of simultaneously monitoring the spatiotemporal evolution of interseismic fault slips and block motions based on state-space modeling. We aimed to estimate fault slips and block motions using the time series of dense continuous Global Navigation Satellite System sites covering southwest Japan, encompassing 25 years from 1996 onward. We calculated synthetic block motions of the forearc region, monotonically increasing back slips on block boundary faults, and long-term slow slip events in the Tokai region, Kii Channel, and Bungo Channel. Subsequently, we generated the expected synthetic displacement time-series at GNSS stations. Applying Kalman filtering, we successfully estimated the spatiotemporal evolution of block motions, cumulative back slips, multiple slow slip events occurring in different regions. Although the contributions of fault slips and block motions showed slight trade-off, main characteristics of the slip distributions and the direction of block motions were well-recovered. We recovered slow slip events with slips of 5–10 cm or larger. We investigated the estimation uncertainty and separation precision of the unknown parameters using the covariance matrix estimated by Kalman filtering. Focusing on the structure of the non-diagonal component of the covariance matrix, we evaluated the complex effects of site and subfault locations on the estimated slip spatial distribution bias. For instance, the extent of the correlation between subfaults suggested that the three slow slip regions have different tendency of the uncertainties of slip areas, extending toward landside, seaward, or both of them. Our framework enables the comprehensive evaluation of the contributions and uncertainties of various deformation sources covering the entire subduction zone.Graphical abstract

Dynamic Pulverization of Rock Under Triaxial Static-Stress and High-Rate Shearing

A long-term opening problem in geophysics and engineering is the generation mechanism of rock pulverization (e.g., fault gouge) within the shear zone when subjected to triaxial stress environment and dynamic loads. A novel triaxial Hopkinson bar is developed to apply quasi-static triaxial confinement and dynamic loads onto the testing rocks and to measure the energy release from the shearing zone. The results elucidate shear strain-rate threshold (i.e., over 125 s−1) for granite at the triaxial prestress of (10, 10, 10) MPa is required for fine fragments/gouge generation. The effects of shear and normal pre-stresses on dynamic shear strength and surface energy for rock pulverization are investigated, which will help explain fine fragments formed during the high-rate loading events. It is suggested that, except for the quasi-static cumulative slip attrition and multiple dynamic events, rock pulverization or fault gouge could be generated at relatively shallow depths (low geo-stress) in a single dynamic earthquake processes.

Migrating Foreshocks Driven by a Slow Slip Event Before the 2021 MW 6.1 Yangbi, China Earthquake

AbstractForeshocks are known to occur before certain large earthquakes, but the physical mechanism is still in debate. Recent field and laboratory studies have supported either cascade‐triggering, pre‐slip or a combination of both models. Here we use a dense seismic and geodetic network deployed in 2018 in Southwest China to quantify the long‐term background seismicity, short‐term spatio‐temporal evolutions of foreshocks and transient deformation before the 2021 MW 6.1 Yangbi earthquake. We find multiple episodes of migrating foreshocks and repeating earthquakes in the last 4 days of the Yangbi mainshock. A rapid migration of microseismicity started in the last 30 minutes toward the eventual initiation point of the Yangbi mainshock, well beyond the rupture zone of the largest MW 5.2 foreshock at that time. The Coulomb stress changes due to relatively large‐size foreshocks at the mainshock hypocenter are positive but relatively small (0.005–0.05 MPa). We also observe continuous geodetic signals with ∼20 mm of cumulative displacement at a nearby GPS station coinciding with the last hour of intense foreshocks. The inverted aseismic moment is equivalent to a MW 5.56 event with the maximum slip of ∼200 mm at 6 km depth, larger than the cumulative seismic slip of ∼60–120 mm inverted from waveforms of several large M4+ foreshocks. In addition, the predicted surface displacements based on the coseismic slips of the M4+ foreshocks are unobservable in the GPS data. We propose a migratory slow‐slip model where a transient slow‐slip event drives the last hour of foreshock sequence and eventually trigger the Yangbi mainshock.

Spatial Relationships Between Coseismic Slip, Aseismic Afterslip, and On‐Fault Aftershock Density in Continental Earthquakes

AbstractDamaging aftershock sequences often exhibit considerable spatio‐temporal complexity. The stress changes associated with coseismic slip and aseismic afterslip are commonly proposed to drive aftershock sequences, but few systematic studies exist and do not always support strong, universal driving relationships. To investigate the roles that these two sources of stress changes may play in driving aftershocks, we assess the spatio‐temporal relationships between coseismic slip, afterslip, and on‐fault (within 5 km) aftershock density following seven Mw6.0–7.6 continental‐settings earthquakes, using available high‐quality slip models and regional seismic data. From previous empirical work and frictional considerations, near the mainshock we expect coseismic slip and afterslip to be anti‐correlated, and aftershocks to occur where coseismic slip is low/zero, near high slip gradients, and/or to migrate with afterslip. However, we find that spatial relationships between afterslip and coseismic slip, and between afterslip and aftershock density differ between earthquakes. Aftershock density correlates with coseismic slip following five of the earthquakes, and with total cumulative slip (coseismic slip + afterslip) following six: indicating that on‐fault aftershock distributions may be approximated by total slip (at current resolutions). Additionally, we find that the gradients of coseismic slip and afterslip (proxies for new stress concentrations) do not clearly correlate with aftershock distributions and that the choice of spatial domain over which relationships are tested can affect results significantly. A possible explanation of these results is that fault zones contain considerable fine‐scale structural and frictional heterogeneity. Nonetheless, the empirical evidence for frequently assumed relationships between coseismic slip, afterslip and on‐fault aftershocks is mixed.

Fault slip behavior and segmentation revealed by geomorphic offset clusters: An example from the middle Riganpei Co fault, central Tibet

High-resolution topographic datasets are useful for revealing offset features of fault geomorphology and are thus important for reconstructing the evolution history of faults. The Riganpei Co fault, located in the central Tibetan Plateau, is an important active fault on the northern boundary of the Bangong-Nujiang suture zone. In this study, WorldView-2 stereo images were used to generate high-resolution topographic data in a 1 km range on both flanks of the middle section of the Riganpei Co fault. We interpreted the tectonic geomorphology along the fault, classified it into distinct units, and measured the horizontal displacement of each unit. Within approximately 70 km along the fault, we obtained 396 displacement measurements ranging from 0 to 60 m. Given the evident uneven distribution of displacement, the fault was divided into four segments. In each fault segment, the reconstructed slip distributions revealed a tendency of larger displacements in the center and smaller displacements toward the ends. The cumulative offset probability distribution (COPD) of displacements displays 4–5 offset clusters in the range of 0–30 m for each segment, suggesting that at least four large earthquakes ruptured this fault. The binned COPD demonstrated that there are differences in the displacement accumulation modes among these fault segments, where the middle segment follows a characteristic slip accumulation mode. Reconstructed cumulative slip profiles revealed a complex pattern of strong earthquake activities along the Riganpei Co fault.

Surface rupturing earthquakes along the eastern Rhine Graben Boundary Fault near Ettlingen-Oberweier (Germany)

The eastern Rhine Graben Boundary Fault (eastern RGBF) forms the eastern margin of the Upper Rhine Graben (URG), the most seismically active area in the plate interiors of Europe. Despite seismic activity posing a significant threat to the densely populated URG and critical facilities therein, only a few studies have documented the paleoearthquake history and associated seismic hazard, focusing mainly on the western margin. We present the results of the first paleoseismological trenching ever conducted on the central section of the eastern RGBF. Following high-resolution near-surface geophysical studies, we excavated six trenches near Ettlingen-Oberweier (south of Karlsruhe, Germany) on one of its secondary fault strands. The nearly-vertical fault is transtensional left-lateral and splits into several NNW-SSE en échelon branches, forming a negative flower structure. Stratigraphic and structural relationships along with radiocarbon and Optically Stimulated Luminescence dating reveal a minimum of three surface-rupturing paleoearthquakes with a Mw of potentially 6.5 ± 0.5, occurring from old to young, >56 ka (EX), between 54 and 19 ka (EY), and between 15 and 1 ka (EZ). The events are poorly constrained in age due to erosional unconformities. Based on the cumulative vertical separation of 1.2 ± 0.3 m, we calculate an average vertical slip rate of 0.02 ± 0.005 mm/yr. From a horizontally offset alluvial channel, we infer a cumulative left-lateral slip of 5.9 ± 0.7 m and derive an average horizontal slip rate of 0.1 ± 0.01 mm/yr. The average net slip rate is 0.1 ± 0.02 mm/yr for the past 59.5 ± 3.8 ka. This value represents a minimum slip rate for the eastern RGBF, considering slip distribution within the different fault strands of the fault system. Our findings highlight the seismic potential of the eastern RGBF, providing new evidence of the Late Pleistocene and Holocene tectonic activity of its central section.

Shallow Slow Slip Events Identified Offshore the Osa Peninsula in Southern Costa Rica From GNSS Time Series

AbstractUsing new continuous geodetic time series, we identify five shallow slow slip events (SSEs) offshore and beneath the Osa peninsula in southern Costa Rica. An early event was detected by one station in 2013, and two events occurring in close succession in both 2018 and 2022 were detected by multiple stations, indicating a preliminary recurrence interval of ∼4–5 years. While SSEs have been observed to the northwest at Nicoya, this is their first documentation in southern Costa Rica. Modeled slip distributions of the 2018 and 2022 events indicate they likely ruptured the same or overlapping patches of the plate interface, near the trench, updip of the 1983 Mw 7.4 Osa event. Immediately offshore, estimated cumulative slip from the 2018 and 2022 events is sufficient to close the slip deficit from tectonic loading over the recurrence interval, potentially limiting the magnitude and spatial slip distribution of future large ruptures.

Seismological Indicators of Geologically Inferred Fault Maturity

AbstractVariations in fault zone maturity have intermittently been invoked to explain variations in some seismological observations for large earthquakes. However, the lack of a unified geological definition of fault maturity makes quantitative assessment of its importance difficult. We evaluate the degree of empirical correlation between geological and geometric measurements commonly invoked as indicative of fault zone maturity and remotely measured seismological source parameters of 34MW ≥ 6.0 shallow strike‐slip events. Metrics based on surface rupture segmentation, such as number of segments and surface rupture azimuth changes, correlate best with seismic source attributes while the correlations with cumulative fault slip are weaker. Average rupture velocity shows the strongest correlation with metrics of maturity, followed by relative aftershock productivity. Mature faults have relatively lower aftershock productivity and higher rupture velocity. A more complex relation is found with moment‐scaled radiated energy. There appears to be distinct behavior of very immature events which radiate modest seismic energy, while intermediate mature faults have events with higher moment‐scaled radiated energy and very mature faults with increasing cumulative slip tend to have events with reduced moment‐scaled radiated energy. These empirical comparisons establish that there are relationships between remote seismological observations and fault system maturity that can help to understand variations in seismic hazard among different fault environments and to assess the relative maturity of inaccessible or blind fault systems for which direct observations of maturity are very limited.

Slow Slip Events Associated with Seismic Activity in the Hikurangi Subduction Zone, New Zealand, from 2019 to 2022

Slow slip events (SSEs) are geophysical phenomena primarily occurring in subduction zones. These events are often associated with seismic activity and can be detected by Global Positioning System (GPS). However, the relationship between SSEs and seismic activity remains unclear. To further investigate SSEs associated with seismic activity, we conducted SSE detection and inversion for the period from 2019 to 2022 on New Zealand’s North Island, where both SSEs and seismic activity frequently occur. By modeling daily GPS coordinate time series from 40 GPS stations and applying the Network Inversion Filter (NIF) method, we obtain surface displacements, cumulative slips, and slip rates for eight shallow SSEs. Subsequently, we conduct a statistical analysis of seismic activity concerning its spatial distribution and frequency before, during, and after SSE occurrences. The results indicate that SSE1 and SSE7 exhibited larger cumulative slips, at 14.35 and 7.20 cm, and surface displacements, at 4.97 and 2.53 cm, respectively. During their occurrences, the seismic frequency noticeably increased to 6.5 and 5.6 events per day in the Eastern Coastal Region (ECR) of New Zealand’s North Island. However, the other six SSEs, characterized by cumulative slips of less than 6 cm and maximum surface displacements of less than 2 cm, did not lead to a noticeable increase in seismic frequency during their occurrences in the ECR. In the Main Slip Regions (MSR) of these eight SSEs, a significant upward trend in seismic frequency was observed during their occurrences. Therefore, it can be inferred that in the ECR of New Zealand’s North Island, all SSEs result in an increased seismic frequency within their respective MSRs, but only significant SSEs impact the seismic frequency of the ECR. Monitoring shallow SSEs may contribute to the identification and recording of seismic activity.