Cumulative Cancer Incidence Research Articles

Is there an association between mastitis and breast cancer? a retrospective cohort study from Germany.

The aim of the study was to explore the association between mastitis and subsequent breast cancer. This retrospective cohort study included women aged ≥ 18years with an initial mastitis diagnosis from 315 office-based gynecologists in Germany between January 2005 and December 2021. Women without mastitis were matched to women with mastitis using propensity score matching based on age, index year, average yearly consultation frequency during the follow-up period, and coexisting diseases such as obesity, benign mammary dysplasia, hypertrophy of the breast, unspecified lump of breast, and other disorders of the breast. The 10-year cumulative incidence of breast cancer for the mastitis-cohort and non-mastitis-cohort was studied with Kaplan-Meier curves using the log-rank test. The association between mastitis and breast cancer was studied separately for four age groups with univariable Cox regression analyses. In the follow-up period of 7months to 10years after the index date, 2.9% of mastitis patients and 2.4% of matched non-mastitis patients were diagnosed with breast cancer. A Cox regression analysis revealed a significant association between mastitis and subsequent breast cancer (HR: 1.37; 95% CI: 1.11-1.70). According to the age-stratified analyses, a strong and significant association was only observed in the age group > 50years (HR: 1.73; 95% 1.25-2.40). The findings of our retrospective cohort study support an association between mastitis and subsequent breast cancer diagnoses in women aged > 50years. The pathophysiological basis and possibility of confounders however requires further investigation.

Pathogenic variants in cancer susceptibility genes predispose to Ductal Carcinoma In situ of the breast.

To determine the relationship between germline pathogenic variants (PVs) in cancer predisposition genes and the risk of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). Germline PV frequencies in breast cancer predisposition genes (ATM, BARD1, BRCA1, BRCA2, CDH1, CHEK2, PALB2, RAD51C, and RAD51D) were compared between DCIS cases and unaffected controls, and between DCIS and infiltrating ductal carcinoma (IDC) cases from a clinical-testing cohort (n=9,887), a population-based cohort (n=3,876) and the UK Biobank (n=2421). The risk of contralateral breast cancer for DCIS cases with PVs was estimated in the population-based cohort. Germline PVs were observed in 6.5% and 4.6% of women with DCIS in the clinical-testing and population-based cohorts, respectively. BRCA1, BRCA2, and PALB2 PVs frequencies were significantly lower among women with DCIS than IDC (clinical cohort: 2.8% vs. 5.7%; population-based cohort: 1.7% vs. 3.7%), whereas the PV frequencies for ATM and CHEK2 were similar. ATM, BRCA1, BRCA2, CHEK2, and PALB2 PVs were significantly associated with an increased risk of DCIS (OR>2.0), but only BRCA2 PVs were associated with high-risk (OR>4) in both cohorts. The cumulative incidence of contralateral breast cancer among carriers of PVs in high penetrance genes with DCIS was 23% over 15 years. The enrichment of PVs in ATM, BRCA1, BRCA2, CHEK2 and PALB2 among women with DCIS suggests that multigene panel testing may be appropriate for women with DCIS. Elevated risks of contralateral breast cancer in carriers of PVs in high penetrance genes with DCIS confirmed the utility of testing for surgical decision-making.

Prevalence and outcomes of cancer and treatment-associated toxicities for patients with Ataxia Telangiectasia

Ataxia Telangiectasia (A-T) is a DNA repair disorder with cancer predisposition. Characterize the prevalence and outcomes of hematologic and solid cancers and treatment-associated toxicities in individuals with A-T. Data was retrospectively analyzed from the Johns Hopkins Ataxia Telangiectasia Clinical Center cohort. Cumulative incidence and standardized incidence ratios of cancer, survival probability after cancer diagnosis, and standardized mortality ratios were calculated. Cox regression estimated risk of death based on chemotherapy (standard v reduced) dosing and multivariable logistic regression evaluated cancer risk associations with ATM exons and variants. Eighty-four (16.5%) of 508 individuals were diagnosed with a primary cancer, 62 (74%) were hematologic in origin and 22 (26%) were solid organ cancers. The cumulative incidence of cancer was 29% by age 35 years. Non-Hodgkin lymphoma occurred most frequently (n=39), while solid cancers disproportionately affected those ≥18 years old (n=22). The standardized mortality ratio was 24.6 (95% CI:21.1-28.4) overall and 232.9 (95% CI:178.1-299.2) among individuals with cancer. Risk of death was higher when treated with standard/unknown versus modified chemotherapy (HR 2.2, 95% CI:1.1-4.4, p=0.024). Chemotherapy-associated toxicities developed in 58% of individuals, predominantly neurologic (n=14) and gastrointestinal (n=10) systems. Three exons were enriched for cancer-associated variants. Individuals with A-T experience a wide array of blood and solid organ malignancies, high mortality rates, and treatment related toxicities, highlighting need for targeted therapies to mitigate toxicity and optimize survival. A-T patients with cancer face elevated mortality rates, underscoring the urgency for tailored therapies to minimize toxicity and improve survival outcomes.

Nationwide cohort study on the risk of high-grade cervical dysplasia and carcinoma after conservative treatment or hysterectomy for adenocarcinoma in situ.

Internationally, little consensus exists about the best treatment for cervical adenocarcinoma in situ (AIS). This study aimed to determine the incidence of recurrent high-grade cervical dysplasia and development of local cervical cancer after treatment for AIS. This nationwide, retrospective cohort study included patients with AIS, who were treated by a large loop excision of the transformation zone (LLETZ), cold-knife conization (CKC), or hysterectomy between January 1, 1990 and December 31, 2021 in the Netherlands. Pathology reports were retrieved from the Dutch Nationwide Pathology Databank (Palga). Primary outcomes were the cumulative incidences of high-grade cervical dysplasia (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or 3, and AIS) and local cervical cancer up to 20 years after primary treatment. In total, 4243 patients with AIS were included. The primary treatment was a LLETZ, CKC, or hysterectomy in 1593, 2118, and 532 patients, respectively. The incidence of recurrent high-grade cervical dysplasia after LLETZ (10.5%; 95%CI: 8.6-12.3) was higher than after CKC (5.5%; 95%CI: 4.4-6.6, p <.0001). When a radical excision, that is, surgical margins free of dysplasia at end of treatment, was achieved, the incidence of recurrent high-grade dysplasia and local cervical cancer did not differ between LLETZ (5.6% [95%CI: 3.3-7.9] and 1.9% [95%CI: 0-4.4]) and CKC (4.7% [95%CI: 3.5-5.8], p = .631 and 1.5% [95%CI: 0.7-2.3], p = .918). After hysterectomy, none of the patients developed cervical dysplasia or local cervical cancer. Conservative treatment for AIS can be considered a safe and final treatment modality when a radical excision is achieved.

Clinical Outcomes over Several Years for Suspected Branch-Duct Intrapapillary Mucinous Neoplasms of the Pancreas: A Single Referral Center Experience

Background/Aim: This study evaluated the cumulative incidence of pancreatic cancer and worrisome features (WFs) in patients with pancreatic cysts (PCs) clinically considered as branch-duct intrapapillary mucinous neoplasm (BD-IPMN).Methods: Data from 177 patients followed for BD-IPMN were retrospectively analyzed. Suspected BD-IPMN was defined as PCs with confirmed communication with the main pancreatic duct (MPD) via imaging studies, while presumed BD-IPMN referred to PCs lacking clear MPD communication.Results: Among the patients, 30.5% were categorized as suspected BD-IPMN. The median age at diagnosis was 64 years, with a median cyst size of 13 mm. At diagnosis, 19 patients (10.7%) exhibited WFs, and none of the patients had high-risk stigmata. Over a follow-up period of 70.5 months, pancreatic cancer developed in three patients, resulting in a cumulative incidence of 4.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.98 to 10.76%) at 96 months. For the 158 patients without initial WFs, the cumulative incidence of WFs was 5.1% (95% CI, 2.37 to 9.28%) at 24 months and 11.2% (95% CI, 6.34 to 17.53%) at 96 months. The development of WFs was lower in the presumed BD-IPMN group (&lt;i&gt;p&lt;/i&gt;=0.102) and among patients aged under 75 (&lt;i&gt;p&lt;/i&gt;=0.463), though these differences were not statistically significant. Notably, the incidence of WFs plateaued after two years in the elderly cohort.Conclusions: The cumulative incidence of pancreatic cancer and WFs in patients with low-risk PCs was notably low. Furthermore, discontinuing surveillance may be considered for elderly patients, especially those with no changes within the first two years of observation.

Characteristics of Cancer in Subjects Carrying Lynch Syndrome-Associated Gene Variants in Taiwanese Population: A Hospital-Based Study in Taiwan.

Lynch syndrome (LS) is an autosomal dominant disorder characterized by increased risks of colorectal and endometrial cancers. LS is defined by pathogenic variants in mismatch repair (MMR) genes, including MLH1, MSH2, and MSH6. Data on the prevalence and associated cancer risks of LS in the Han Chinese population remain limited. In this study, using a broad biobank approach through the Taiwan Precision Medicine Initiative (TPMI), we identified LS-associated MMR gene variants within a cohort of 42,828 participants from a Taiwanese medical center. A total of 89 individuals were found to carry pathogenic MMR variants: MLH1 (n = 22, 25%), MSH2 (n = 47, 53%), and MSH6 (n = 20, 22%). The overall prevalence of MMR variants was calculated, and cancer incidence rates among carriers were determined. The prevalence of MMR variants in the study population was 1 in 481. The distribution of MLH1, MSH2, and MSH6 variants were 24.7%, 52.8%, and 22.5%, respectively. Cumulative cancer incidence rates of carriers were 40.9% for MLH1 carriers, 29.8% for MSH2, and 40% for MSH6. Among the 19 individuals who underwent colonoscopy screening, the prevalence of polyps was similar to that of the control group (adenoma detection rate: 32% vs 26%, p = 0.585). A meticulous analysis of the detected polyps in seven participants, considering factors such as location, size, morphology, and pathological features, showed no significant differences from controls. A significant cancer risk is associated with LS-related MMR variants in the Taiwanese population. The apparent under diagnosis of LS highlights the urgent need for enhanced surveillance and genetic counseling in this demographic. Our findings suggest that adjustments in the current screening protocols may be warranted to better identify and manage at-risk individuals.

Sex differences in cancer incidence amongst people with cardiovascular disease: a large British population study

Abstract Background Studies have shown that patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD) have an incremental risk of death due to noncardiac causes. This is especially attributable to cancer developments during long term follow up. The two diseases share pathophysiological mechanisms that extend beyond traditional risk factors. With well-established sex disparities in CVD, it becomes imperative to investigate whether similar sex-based differences exist in both the incidence of cancer and cancer-related mortality, in participants with CVD vs those without CVD. Purpose We aim to analyse the sex differences in incident cancer and cancer-related mortality between people with and without CVD. Methods Participants were drawn from a large British population based prospective cohort study and followed up for a median of 26.2 years. Participants were stratified by sex and whether they developed CVD over the study follow-up. The cumulative incidence of cancer, excluding non-melanoma skin cancers were calculated. Sex-specific lifetime risks were determined accounting for competing risks of death. Cause-specific hazard ratios were determined using Royston-Parmar models. Models were adjusted for ethnicity and time-updated covaries, including material deprivation, CV risk factors, lifestyle factors, comorbidities, and medication. Participants’ CVD status was time-updated over the study follow-up as this was diagnosed. Results Out of a total of 22, 534 participants, free of cancer at baseline, 53.7% were women. Mean (standard deviation) age was 58.6 (9.3) for women and 59.5 (9.3) for men, at baseline. Men were older and had more comorbidities. Hypertension and obesity were risk factors more prevalent amongst men, while women were more likely to be smokers at baseline. Participants with CVD had more comorbidities, were more likely to smoke, have higher HbA1cs and be obese than those without CVD. The adjusted lifetime risks of incident cancer in participants with CVD at age 75 were higher in men (13.9%) compared to women (10.1%). This translates into a cause-specific hazard ratio (cHR) (99% confidence interval) for incident cancer (men vs. women) of 1.41 (1.27 - 1.55). Similar findings were demonstrated in participants with no CVD (10.2% for men and 8.2% for women), corresponding to a cHR of 1.27 (1.15 - 1.40). Furthermore, men had a higher risk of cancer-related mortality compared to women in participants with CVD 1.54 (1.33 - 1.78), as well as among participants without CVD 1.34 (1.17 - 1.53). Conclusion Our study showed an association between CVD and the lifetime cancer risk in both sexes after extensive adjustment. Furthermore, we show that men have a higher risk of cancer incidence and cancer-related mortality than women, regardless of comorbid CVD. However, these associations, were stronger in participants with CVD. It is vital to identify driving forces of such disparities to achieve health equity.

Colorectal screening program implementation in primary health care, in Loures-Odivelas, Portugal

Abstract Problem In 2020, Portugal had the highest cumulative incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) in the European Union (103 new cases/100,000 inhabitants). The Colorectal Cancer Screening Program (CRCS) is based on fecal occult blood testing (FOBT) as the primary screening method. With the delivery of the stool sample collection device; instruction on its use is provided by the Primary Health Care team. The sample is processed at the Clinical Pathology laboratory of the Hospital Center (HC). In case of a positive result, the general practitioner communicates the result and refers the individual to the Follow-up and Treatment Center. Description The general objective of this project was to implement the CRCS in the 19 Family Health Units (FHU) of Loures-Odivelas Health Center Group, between September 2022 and April 2023. The following activities were carried out: 1. Sessions to present the patient pathway, record platform, and stool sample collection device; 2. Application of a checklist of essential points for the start of screening; 3. Preparation and dissemination of monitoring reports to the FHU; 4. Follow-up visits to clarify doubts. Results By March 2023, CRCS had been implemented in 15 of the 19 FHU (79%). Between September 2022 and March 2023, 1,430 devices were delivered and 959 FOBT samples were received (67%). Among the devices received with biological samples, it was not possible to issue a result for 5%. Lessons The activities carried out allowed for the initiation of CRCS in most FHU. The involvement of professionals in these activities contributes to increased patient adherence and proper collection technique, reducing inconclusive FOBT results. It is necessary to continue this strategy of personalized support for the FHU to consolidate the implementation of CRCS in LO HCG. Ensuring that the necessary materials are available and that result issuance and referral deadlines are met are important factors for maintaining professional motivation. Key messages • The objective was to implement the Colorectal Cancer Screening Program (CRCS) in 19 Family Health Units (FHU) in Loures-Odivelas. By March 2023, CRCS had been implemented in 15 of 19 FHU (79%). • It is important to continue these activities in order to put into operation the CRCS in all FHU and to tackle the problem of colorectal cancer.

Fatty liver index and development of lung cancer: a nationwide cohort study.

This study aimed to evaluate the impact of steatotic liver disease severity on the cumulative incidence of lung cancer utilizing data from the Korea National Health Insurance Service (NHIS). This study examined the risk of lung cancer in the general population in conjunction with the incidence of steatotic liver disease. The study population consisted of 3,261,438 individuals aged 20 years or older who underwent a general health examination in 2009. Individuals with fatty liver index (FLI) of 30-59 exhibited a 1.08-fold increased risk of lung cancer (95% CI: 1.04-1.11), while FLI ≥ 60 was associated with a 1.22-fold elevated risk of lung cancer (95% CI: 1.17-1.28) compared to those with FLI < 30. The risk varied with smoking status; in current smokers, the adjusted HR for the FLI 30-59 group was 1.05 (95% CI: 1.00-1.10), while that in the FLI ≥ 60 group was 1.11 (95% CI: 1.04-1.18). In never- or past-smokers, the adjusted HR for the FLI 30-59 group was 1.10, and that for the FLI ≥ 60 group was 1.31. Subgroup analysis revealed an incidence rate of 1.06 per 1,000 person-years in the consistently high FLI group compared to 1.15 in those with improved FLI. Improving FLI over time was associated with a 0.93-fold decrease in lung cancer risk. Our study demonstrated a correlational relationship between lung cancer incidence and the severity of steatotic liver disease as measured by FLI.

Analysis of the epidemiological trends and spatial patterns of esophageal cancer among male populations in China's mainland from 1990 to 2021.

This study aimed to delineate the temporal patterns of esophageal cancer epidemic trends and spatial clustering patterns among male populations in China's mainland from 1990 to 2021. This analysis aimed to provide a scientific rationale and empirical data to facilitate the formulation of targeted prevention and control strategies. Data on the number of cases and deaths, crude and age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of esophageal cancer in men were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study and the Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report. Global and local Moran's I spatial autocorrelation index was employed to quantify spatial clustering, and a disease map was drawn. From 1990 to 2021, the cumulative incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer in men were 6 100 342 and 5 972 294, respectively. The crude incidence and death rates increased in 2021, yet the age-standardized rates decreased significantly. Cixian County in Hebei Province had the highest age-standardized rates. The disease displayed spatial clustering, with relatively high rates in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Hebei Provinces. Since 1990, the incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer among men in mainland China have remained high, imposing a considerable burden. Although age-adjusted rates have declined, they are still relatively high overall, especially in Shandong, Hebei, and Jiangsu Provinces.

Clinical significance of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms incidentally detected in patients with extrapancreatic gastrointestinal malignancies with a focus on pancreatic cancer development

BackgroundIntraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm is occasionally detected in the preoperative images of patients with gastrointestinal malignancies. Despite numerous studies examining the incidence of extrapancreatic malignancies in patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm, limited data exist on the prevalence of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm in those with gastrointestinal malignancies. Given that intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm is a known risk factor for pancreatic cancer, this study aimed to evaluate the prevalence of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm in patients who underwent radical surgery for extrapancreatic gastrointestinal malignancies and its impact on pancreatic cancer development. MethodsWe retrospectively reviewed the preoperative computed tomography images of patients who underwent radical surgery for gastrointestinal malignancies between January 2017 and December 2021 for the presence of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm. Patients were divided into intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm and non–intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm groups, and clinicopathologic features and long-term outcomes, including pancreatic cancer development, were compared between groups. ResultsA total of 814 patients who underwent radical surgery for extrapancreatic gastrointestinal malignancies were included. Among them, 81 patients (10.0%) had intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm. The median observation period was 39 (0–79) months. Notably, pancreatic cancer developed in 5 patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm and 1 without. The 5-year cumulative incidences of pancreatic cancer were 8.8% and 0.2% in the intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm and non–intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm groups, respectively (P < .001). ConclusionIntraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm is frequently detected in the preoperative images of patients with gastrointestinal malignancies and is associated with a significantly higher risk of developing pancreatic cancer. Consequently, long-term surveillance for pancreatic cancer is crucial in patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm, particularly those with extrapancreatic gastrointestinal malignancies.

Blood molybdenum level as a marker of cancer risk on BRCA1 carriers

ObjectiveTo investigate whether Molybdenum blood level is a marker of cancer risk on BRCA1 carriers.MethodsA prospective cohort study was conducted among 989 initially unaffected women with a BRCA1 mutation. Blood samples were collected to measure molybdenum levels, and participants were followed for an average of 7.5 years. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the association between blood molybdenum levels and cancer incidence, adjusting for potential confounders.ResultsHigh blood molybdenum levels (> 0.70 µg/L) were significantly associated with an increased risk of developing ovarian cancer (HR = 5.55; 95%CI: 1.59–19.4; p = 0.007) and any cancer (HR = 1.74; 95%CI: 1.17–2.61; p = 0.007) but not breast cancer (HR = 1.46, CI = 0.91–2.33; p = 0.12). The cumulative incidence of ovarian cancer at ten years was 1.2% for the lowest molybdenum tertile, 4.2% for the middle tertile, and 8.7% for the highest tertile.ConclusionElevated blood molybdenum levels are associated with an increased risk of ovarian cancer on BRCA1 mutation carriers. Lowering molybdenum levels may potentially reduce cancer risk in this population, and high molybdenum levels could serve as a marker for considering preventive oophorectomy in BRCA1 carriers. Further research is warranted to confirm these findings and explore interventions targeting molybdenum levels as a preventive measure for ovarian cancer in BRCA1 mutation carriers.

Impact of Cardio-Ankle Vascular Index on Future Cancer in Patients With Coronary Artery Disease.

Cardiovascular risk factors are associated with increased risk of future cancer. However, the relationship between quantitative parameters of atherosclerosis and future cancer risk is unclear. A total of 1,057 consecutive patients with coronary artery disease was divided into 2 groups according to the cutoff value of the cardio-ankle vascular index (CAVI) derived by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis: low CAVI group (CAVI <8.82; n=487), and high CAVI group (CAVI ≥8.82; n=570). Patients in the high CAVI group were older and had a higher prevalence of diabetes, chronic kidney disease, anemia and history of stroke compared with patients in the low CAVI group. There were 141 new cancers during the follow-up period. The cumulative incidence of new cancer was significantly higher in the high CAVI group than in the low CAVI group (P=0.001). In a multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis, high CAVI was found to be an independent predictor of new cancer diagnosis (hazard ratio 1.62; 95% confidence interval 1.11-2.36; P=0.012). In the analysis of individual cancer types, high CAVI was associated with lung cancer (hazard ratio 2.85; 95% confidence interval 1.01-8.07; P=0.049). High CAVI was associated with the risk of future cancer in patients with coronary artery disease.

Primary Liver Cancer Risk and Mortality in Patients With Alcohol-Related Cirrhosis in England and Denmark: Observational Cohort Studies.

Patients with alcohol-related cirrhosis (ALD cirrhosis) have an increased risk of primary liver cancer (hepatocellular carcinoma [HCC] or intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma [iCCA]). England recommends surveillance for HCC in these patients, while Denmark does not. We performed an observational cohort study using the English Clinical Practice Research Datalink and the nationwide Danish healthcare registries to identify 17,110 English (2000-2016) and 22,122 Danish (1994-2022) patients with diagnosis codes of ALD cirrhosis. We computed and compared incidence rates and cumulative incidence of primary liver cancer, annual ultrasound scan rates, and mortality following diagnosis of primary liver cancer. The overall risk of primary liver cancer was similar in England and Denmark: 5-year risk was 2.24% (95% confidence interval 2.00-2.49) in England (iCCA 0.07%, HCC 2.16%) and 2.36% (2.15-2.57) in Denmark (iCCA 0.05%, HCC 2.30%). The annual rate of ultrasound scans per person was 0.65 (0.63-0.67) in England and 0.44 (0.42-0.46) in Denmark. The 1-year mortality after a diagnosis of primary liver cancer was 59.2% (54.4-64.0) in England and 60.9% (57.4-64.4) in Denmark. The 3-year risks of HCC in those on vs off surveillance in England were 2.3% (1.0-4.6) vs 1.5% (1.0-2.2). The risk of primary liver cancer was the same in English and Danish patients with ALD cirrhosis, and HCCs constituted 97% of primary liver cancers. Mortality with primary liver cancer was equally high in both countries. Notably, in England, where guidance recommends biannual HCC surveillance with ultrasound, patients with ALD cirrhosis were undergoing fewer than 1 ultrasound scan per year.

Incidence of rectal cancer after colectomy for inflammatory bowel disease: nationwide study.

Inflammatory bowel disease increases the risk of colorectal neoplasia. A particular problem arises in patients who have undergone subtotal colectomy leaving a rectal remnant. The risk of future rectal cancer must be accurately estimated and weighed against the risks of further surgery or surveillance. The aim of this study was to estimate the 10-year cumulative incidence of rectal cancer in such patients. A nationwide study using England's hospital administrative data was performed. A cohort of patients undergoing subtotal colectomy between April 2002 and March 2014 was identified. A competing risks survival analysis was performed to calculate the cumulative incidence of rectal cancer. The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on endoscopic surveillance was investigated using time-trend analysis. A total of 8120 patients were included and 61 patients (0.8%) were diagnosed with cancer. The cumulative incidence of rectal cancer was 0.26% (95% c.i. 0.17% to 0.39%), 0.49% (95% c.i. 0.36% to 0.68%), and 0.77% (95% c.i. 0.57% to 1.02%) at 5, 10, and 15 years respectively. A previous diagnosis of colonic dysplasia (HR 3.34, 95% c.i. 1.01 to 10.97; P = 0.047), primary sclerosing cholangitis (HR 5.42, 95% c.i. 1.34 to 21.85; P = 0.018), and elective colectomy (HR 1.83, 95% c.i. 1.11 to 3.02; P = 0.018) was associated with an increased incidence of rectal cancer. Regarding endoscopic surveillance, there was a 43% decline in endoscopic procedures performed in 2020 (333 procedures) compared with 2019 (585 procedures). The incidence of rectal cancer after subtotal colectomy is low. Asymptomatic patients without evidence of rectal dysplasia should be carefully counselled on the possible benefits and risks of prophylactic proctectomy.

Risk of Gastric and Small Intestinal Cancer in Patients With Lynch Syndrome: Data From a Large, Community-Based US Population.

Risk of gastric and small intestinal cancer in Lynch syndrome (LS) remains poorly understood. We investigated the risk of gastric and small intestinal cancer in patients with LS in a large, community-based population. This retrospective cohort study included all patients diagnosed with LS between January 1, 1997, and December 31, 2020, at Kaiser Permanente Northern California. Cumulative incidence of gastric cancer and small intestinal cancer was calculated using competing risk methodology. Among 1,106 patients with LS with a median follow-up of 19.3 years (interquartile range [IQR] 9.4-24.0 years), 11 developed gastric cancer (8 MSH2 , 2 MLH1 and 1 PMS2 ) with a median diagnosis age of 56 years (IQR 42-63 years) and 11 developed small intestinal cancer (6 MSH2 , 3 MLH1 , 1 MSH6 and 1 PMS2 ) with a median diagnosis age of 57 years (IQR 50-66 years). Cumulative incidence by age 80 years was 7.26% (95% confidence internal [CI], 1.80-18.03%) for men and 3.43% (95% CI, 0.50-11.71%) for women for gastric cancer and 7.28% (95% CI, 3.19-13.63%) for men and 2.21% (95% CI, 0.23-9.19%) for women for small intestinal cancer. Pathogenic variant carriers of MSH2 and MLH1 had the highest risk of gastric and small intestinal cancer. History of Helicobacter pylori infection was associated with increased risk of gastric cancer (adjusted odds ratio 5.52; 95% CI, 1.72-17.75). Patients with LS, particularly MSH2 and MLH1 pathogenic variant carriers, had significantly increased lifetime risk of gastric and small intestinal cancer. Testing and treatment of H. pylori infection should be considered for all patients with LS.

Too good to be true: Are GLP-1 receptor agonists the new metformin?

Recently, a health-care database study showed that persons with type 2 diabetes taking GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RA) had a significantly lower risk of 10 out of 13 obesity-related cancers than patients taking insulin (Wang L, et al. JAMA Netw Open. 2024 7: e2421305). For some cancers, hazard ratios <0.5 were reported. This is reminiscent of studies published >10 years ago showing that people with type 2 diabetes taking metformin had a lower risk of many types of cancer than those not taking metformin. In some studies, also risk reductions of >50 % were reported.The strong effects observed in the metformin studies were explained by time-related biases, in particular, immortal time bias. In the current GLP-1 RA study, it was striking that the curves for the cumulative incidence of several cancers in GLP-1 RA and insulin users diverged immediately after therapy onset. This indicates that there is most likely a time-related bias: insulin is given at much later stages of type 2 diabetes than GLP-1 RA.The current study suggests that one should be sceptical about database results when spectacular risk reductions are reported. Time-related bias should always be considered as an alternative explanation.

Varying the intensity of cystoscopic surveillance for high-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer.

To compare the clinical, economic, and health utility outcomes associated with alternative cystoscopic surveillance regimens for high-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (HRNMIBC). We performed real-world clinical data-driven microsimulations of a hypothetical cohort of 100 000 patients diagnosed with HRNMIBC at age 70 years. The cohort was simulated to undergo alternative surveillance regimens recommended by five guidelines, and two hypothetical regimens-surveillance intensity escalation and de-escalation-which had a surveillance intensity moderately higher and lower, respectively, than the guideline-recommended regimens. We evaluated the 10-year cumulative incidence of muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC), cancer-specific survival (CSS), overall survival (OS), and cost-effectiveness from a United States healthcare payer perspective. The guideline-recommended surveillance regimens led to an estimated 10-year cumulative incidence of MIBC ranging from 11.0% to 11.6%, CSS 95.0% to 95.2%, and OS 69.7% to 69.8%. Surveillance intensity escalation resulted in a 10-year cumulative incidence of MIBC of 10.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 10.3-10.7%), CSS of 95.4% (95% CI 95.2-95.5%), and OS of 69.9% (95% CI 69.6-70.1%), vs 11.9% (95% CI 11.7-12.1%), 94.9% (95% CI 94.8-95.1%), and 69.6% (95% CI 69.3-69.9%), respectively, from surveillance intensity de-escalation. By increasing surveillance intensity, the number-needed-to-treat to prevent one additional MIBC progression over 10 years was ≥80, and ≥257 to avoid one additional cancer-related mortality. Compared to surveillance intensity de-escalation, higher-intensity regimens incurred an incremental cost of ≥$336 000 per incremental quality-adjusted life year gained, which well exceeded conventional willingness-to-pay thresholds, ≥$686 000 per additional MIBC progression prevented, and ≥$2.2 million per additional cancer-related mortality avoided. In microsimulations testing a wide range of cystoscopic surveillance intensity for patients newly diagnosed with HRNMIBC, moderate surveillance de-escalation appears associated with an insignificant change in 10-year OS and furthermore is cost-effective vs higher-intensity surveillance regimens. These results suggest that moderate surveillance de-escalation can reduce costs of care without compromising life expectancy for many patients.

Long-term outcome of regional cooperation pathway after endoscopic submucosal dissection for early detection of new gastric cancer.

The Cancer Control Act requires the maintenance of regional cooperation pathways (RCP) for cancer treatment. In 2008, we started RCP for early detection of new gastric cancer after endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD). In gastric cancer treatment, RCP after surgical resection had been widely used, but little is known about RCP after ESD. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of RCP after ESD. This study included 465 patients on whom our RCP was implemented from 2008 to 2018. A regional family physician performed surveillance endoscopy at 3months and 1year after ESD and annually thereafter. We retrospectively evaluated the cumulative incidence and treatment outcomes of new gastric cancer and compared them with previous reports. During a median follow-up period of 70.5months (3-120months), 58 patients developed new gastric cancers, and metachronous gastric cancer was detected in 55 patients more than 1year after ESD. The 5-year cumulative incidence rate was 9.8%. Three patients did not want treatment. Among the remaining 55 patients, the initial treatment was ESD in 51 and surgical resection in 4. Eventually, 50 patients (48 in the ESD group and 2 in the surgical resection group) fulfilled the pathologic criteria for curative ESD. There were no deaths due to gastric cancer. Our study was the first to reveal the incidence of new gastric cancer after ESD using RCP. Most lesions were cured with ESD, and no patients died of gastric cancer. Therefore, we consider RCPs to be an option for surveillance after ESD.

Correlation between fasting blood glucose level and risk of breast cancer in women: a single-center, prospective cohort study.

We prospectively analyzed the correlation between fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and the risk of breast cancer in women; explored the independent risk factors for breast cancer in women, and compared the effect of FPG level on the risk of young and non-young breast cancer. Our study provides new evidence and ideas for research into breast cancer etiology in China, improves the accuracy of secondary prevention of breast cancer, and provides options for the clinical diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer patients with diabetes. Three cohorts of women participating in the first health examination of the Kailuan Group in 2006, 2008 and 2010 were assembled to conduct a descriptive analysis of the baseline data on FPG. The cumulative incidence of breast cancer in different groups over 13 years was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method and groups were compared using the log-rank test. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to analyze the association between FPG level and the risk of breast cancer. The cumulative incidence of breast cancer increased in people with FPG higher than 5.29 mmol/L, but there was no significant difference in the effect of different levels of FPG on the risk of young breast cancer in the population. Different degrees of fasting glucose can affect the risk of non-young breast cancer in the population. The results of this study suggest that the risk of breast cancer can be reversed by early intervention to control levels of FPG. Regular monitoring of FPG may reduce the misdiagnosis rate of breast cancer in the population.