Supply Of Cultural Ecosystem Services Research Articles

Revealing the supply-demand relationship of urban cultural ecosystem services: The combination of open-source spatial model and topic model

Cultural ecosystem services (CES) are of significant interest due to their effectiveness in assessing the impact of ecosystem degradation on human well-being. The evaluation of spatial coordination between the supply and demand of urban CES is crucial for guiding the sustainable development of urban areas. However, current research and survey methods are time-consuming and laborious, lacking in full integration of beneficiary opinions, and insufficient in examining multiple CES in an integrated manner. In this study, we have developed a novel framework that integrates an investigation-driven approach with a natural language processing topic model to assess the supply and demand of CES and their spatial correspondence. Using the main urban area of Xi'an as a case study, we analyzed the spatial coherence of supply and demand including aesthetic, cultural, educational, recreational, and spiritual services. Our findings demonstrate that the fusion of multiple models can effectively evaluate the CES supply from a natural perspective of nature and the demand for CES from a beneficiary perspective. High-supply areas for CES are concentrated in the center region of the study area and in proximity to roads and rivers. Aesthetic service supply was higher than that of other service types, followed by recreational and spiritual services supply. Demand is notably high in the city's hinterland, with substantial interest in recreational and aesthetic services. We observed mismatches between supply and demand across service categories ranging from 33.58% to 67.64%, with supply exceeding demand in most regions. Therefore, tailored measures should be implemented to address the supply and demand mismatch of CES based on local conditions. Our research introduces a new technical tool for analyzing the supply-demand matching relationship of CES and establishes a theoretical foundation for sustainable urban management.

Nature in urban green spaces: Main attractor or nice background? Drivers and dynamics of cultural ecosystem services provision

Urban parks and forests are important providers of cultural ecosystem services (CES) for the majority of the global population. Data from diverse sources are needed to reflect both ecological and social aspects of CES delivery in these areas. Understanding and disentangling this complex relationship is crucial to managing urban green spaces (UGS) in a way that maximizes users’ cultural benefits, and does not threaten the ecosystem and its functions. This paper provides a multidimensional analysis of CES delivery in parks and forests located along the urban–peri-urban axis in Warsaw, Poland. We analyzed the content of photographs posted on Instagram to identify which UGS elements attract the attention of users. We also examined whether the pattern of CES delivery was a function of the naturalness and location of the park or forest, and analyzed the factors that influence weekly and seasonal patterns of CES delivery. Although our study focused on areas where natural elements dominate, only around a quarter of photographs featured plants, water, or wild animals. Nature typically appeared as the background, while the foreground was occupied by people and their activities. Consequently, recreational services dominated over aesthetic experience; at the same time, it proved to be very difficult to identify educational services from our dataset. Air temperature, and the color of vegetation resulting from phenological changes were the most important drivers of CES delivery. We found that both the dynamics and character of CES delivery varied depending on the character of the area, and its location. Finally, delivery patterns were similar in semi-wild urban parks and outer city forests.

Seasonal influences on preferences for urban blue-green spaces: Integrating land surface temperature into the assessment of cultural ecosystem service value

Rapid urbanization has triggered conflicts between blue–green space and other city infrastructure, challenging urban planning efforts to improve city residents' well-being. Cultural ecosystem services (CESs) improve mental and physical wellness by offering access to blue–green space via aesthetic or recreational experiences, but these offerings fluctuate; seasonal differences and contributing factors are unclear. We divided urban green space representation into Changfeng Park (CF) in the city core district, Miracle Park (QJ) in the nearby suburb, and Wusong Paotaiwan Wetland Park (WPW) in the far suburb. We combined social media data regarding CESs with the SolVES model and innovatively considered land surface temperature (LST) as an environmental factor affecting CESs. The study demonstrated that (1) seasonal changes significantly influence CES provision in WPW and QJ via landscape dynamics and landscape-related cultural activities. In the more universally designed CF Park, CES seasonal variations were smaller. (2) LST affected CES experiences at both spatial and temporal scales, with higher degrees of influence in summer and in the WPW, potentially due to Shanghai's seasonal high temperatures and humidity and unique landscape features, respectively. (3) These findings can help create seasonally-adaptable blue–green areas that satisfy the demands of urban residents.

Unequal access to cultural ecosystem services of green spaces within the city of Rome – A spatial social media-based analysis

This groundbreaking study sheds new light on the unequal distribution of cultural ecosystem services (CES) within Rome's urban green spaces (UGS). Employing a novel methodology, we assess UGS quality through georeferenced social media data from Twitter, evaluate the green cover of UGS, and assess accessibility to these spaces using network analysis in a GIS environment. This unique methodology allows us to unveil marked disparities in both UGS accessibility and the provision of CES. Unlike traditional approaches, our analysis provides a more nuanced understanding of UGS quality and accessibility. Our findings reveal areas with high UGS accessibility, yet limited CES provision. These insights are crucial for targeted urban planning interventions, advocating for a more equitable distribution of UGS benefits. This research challenges traditional green space planning with a focus on green space availability. Importantly, our study goes further by identifying specific disadvantaged areas, offering valuable insights for promoting equity in urban areas, emphasizing the importance of UGS quality and accessibility. Thereby, this research provides a foundation for a more nuanced, equal, and quality-driven approach to UGS planning.

Mining Social Media Data to Capture Urban Park Visitors’ Perception of Cultural Ecosystem Services and Landscape Factors

Urban parks not only enhance urban ecology but also play a crucial role in providing cultural ecosystem services (CESs) for the well-being of urban residents. Both artificial and natural landscape factors within parks contribute significantly to the supply of cultural ecosystem services. To explore public perceptions of landscape factors and CESs, this study focused on 25 urban parks in Hangzhou. Social media data uploaded by park visitors from 2018 to 2023 were collected to establish a corresponding CES indicator framework. Combining computer vision with text mining, we assessed the preferences and correlations between visitor-perceived CESs and park landscape factors. The results indicated that the majority of park visitors perceive CESs (80.00%) with overall satisfaction higher than importance. Among them, aesthetic experiences and recreation showed both high satisfaction and importance. In shared social media photos, arbors (19.01%), herbaceous flowers (8.99%), and groves (8.22%) were frequently presented as landscape factors. The study revealed close correlations between user gender, landscape factors, and perceived CES categories, with females contributing more to the perception of both. There were internal correlations within CES categories, with spiritual services, aesthetic experiences, and recreation showing the most significant associations. Different landscape factors impacted CES categories to varying degrees, and biological landscapes formed by plant and animal factors were considered to provide more CESs. These findings are significant for enhancing the quality of ecological services and biodiversity in parks.

Perceptions of cultural ecosystem services provision by small public urban green spaces: perspectives from different cultural backgrounds

Perceptions of cultural ecosystem services provision by small public urban green spaces: perspectives from different cultural backgrounds

Translating policy to place: exploring cultural ecosystem services in areas of Green Belt through participatory mapping

ABSTRACT Green Belts are longstanding planning designations, which primarily seek to prevent urban sprawl. Importantly, they form the open spaces close to where most people live, but we lack clarity over how Green Belts are used and valued by publics, and the cultural ecosystem services they provide. To address this policy and research gap, a public participatory mapping survey was conducted on the North-East England Green Belt, with 779 respondents plotting 2388 points. The results show for the first time that in addition to being a planning policy zone, Green Belts are important, and widely used open spaces for ‘everyday nature’, providing several cultural ecosystem services including recreation, connection with nature, sense of place and aesthetic value. Several factors were found to influence the supply of cultural ecosystem services in Green Belts, including proximity to urban areas, woodland land cover and access designations. Whereas most demand pressures on Green Belts were on public rights-of-way, nature designations and deciduous woodlands. Pervasive barriers inhibiting Green Belt’s full potential were identified including management issues, concerns over personal safety and lack of access. We argue that opportunities to further enhance the cultural ecosystem services provided Green Belts and peri-urban landscapes more broadly, not only come from planning policies themselves, but from the design and delivery of approaches integrating urban, rural and land-use policy silos. The findings have wider implications for policy including potential conflict with future development, and opportunities for greater access to greenspace.

Supply-demand relationship and spatial flow of urban cultural ecosystem services: The case of Shenzhen, China

Cultural ecosystem services (CES) have garnered significant attention due to their capacity to comprehensively evaluate the influence of ecosystem degradation on human well-being. It is very important to evaluate the spatial coordination relationship between the supply and demand of urban CES and explore its spatial flow mechanism for guiding the sustainable development of urban regions. However, research on the relationship between supply and demand of urban CES and their spatial flows is still in the conceptual exploration stage, and its quantitative assessment methods are not yet mature. Taking Shenzhen as an example, this study uses the Social Values for Ecosystem Services model to evaluate the supply of CES based on environmental background and survey statistics; Uses the topic model of natural language processing, quantify the demand of CES based on social media data. The Bivariate Local Indicators of Spatial Association index is utilized to examine the correlation between supply and demand, while a crowd activity extraction method based on mobile phone signaling data is developed to simulate the spatial flow pattern of CES. The results show that: (1) The supply of urban CES shows obvious spatial differentiation; There are differences in the perception of the needs of various CES. Among them, the beneficiaries have higher needs for Aesthetic and Recreation. (2) The relationship between supply and demand of urban CES shows different degrees of spatial mismatch, with the proportion of the supply-demand matching area to the total area being less than 20%, and the main type of supply-demand mismatch being low supply-high demand. (3) All kinds of CES flow from the center of the study area to the east, among which the flow of recreation and Aesthetic is more active, with the highest flow of 189.7 and 135.3, respectively. Overall, the coordination between various types of CES in the region is still insufficient. We should encourage the establishment and improvement of a diversified transportation system connecting the central urban area and other regions while enhancing the condition of the local ecological conditions, to improve the capacity of urban ring roads and rail transit, to promote the sustainable development of the regional ecological environment and social economy, and to enhance human well-being.

Resilience in the face of crisis: investigating COVID-19 impacts on urban community gardens in Greater Toronto Area, Canada

PurposeUrban community gardens (UCGs) are important sources of community, food and greenspaces in urban environments. Though UCGs in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) of Ontario, Canada, were considered essential during the COVID-19 lockdowns and therefore open to gardeners, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on food security and UCG use among garden members and managers is not fully understood.Design/methodology/approachThis was an exploratory qualitative study. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with seven managers and eight members of nine gardens in the GTA. The data were analyzed using thematic analysis.FindingsThe results suggest that UCGs helped participants be resilient to COVID-19 pandemic-related stressors through the provision of cultural ecosystem services. Therefore, this study supports the current literature that UCGs can help foster resilience during crises. While participants in this study did not end up being food insecure, participants did express concern about community food security.Practical implicationsResults contribute to the current body of literature, and can be used to further update and develop UCG policies, as well as help develop UCG infrastructure and management strategies for future crises.Originality/valueThe impacts of the pandemic on Canadian UCGs are not well understood. This research paper investigated the impact of the pandemic on UCG use and food security, as well as the link between UCG use and increased resilience to COVID-19-related stressors.

Rural Landscape Simplification and Provision of Cultural Ecosystem Services. A Case Study in the Argentine Pampas

In recent decades, the rural landscape of the Argentine Pampas has undergone a process of simplification due to the increased land allocated to crops, replacing pastures and grasslands, with a substantial increase in soybean area. In 2016-2017, a survey was conducted to analyze changes in cultural ecosystem services in this region. Pergamino citizens relate landscape improvement in terms of aesthetic and recreational values to increasing its complexity since they prefer more winter crops, grazing areas, native vegetation, trees, and birds. The significant relationship between sociodemographic variables and preferences for landscape attributes is consistent with the notion that aesthetic perception is constructed from personal experiences and background.

How do visitors’ perceptions differ from the supply of cultural ecosystem services in urban parks? A case study from Beijing

ABSTRACT As urban green spaces, parks can provide rich cultural ecosystem services (CES), enhancing the well-being of those living in urban areas. Understanding how people perceive the CES supplied by parks and identifying differences with their supply is crucial for decision-makers and urban planners. In this study, we conducted a quantitative assessment of CES by combining an expert field investigation of parks with visitor questionnaires in the Three Hills and Five Gardens area of Beijing, China. Our assessment system comprised five categories of CES (landscape aesthetics, historical heritages, education, recreation, health and fitness) and eleven indicators. We identified differences between CES supply and perceptions and noted that such discrepancies additionally vary by CES type. We found that multiple CES are interdependent and interwoven. In addition, we discovered that perceptions of historical heritages service are particularly dependent on supply, while perceptions of health and fitness service are relatively independent of the supply. We explored the reasons behind these differences, finding that the visibility and prestige of historical heritages as well as the positioning and the overall condition of parks can affect visitors’ perceptions. Our assessment can be used to guide the optimization of parks so that they may provide higher-quality CES for the public.

Assessment of the volume of provision of cultural ecosystem services by Kyiv green zones

Among the groups of ecosystem services, cultural ecosystem services (CES) are the most in demand in cities. Currently, the status of the CES evaluation remains problematic. Accordingly, the purpose of the work was to develop the provisions of the methodology for estimating the volumes of the most demanded CES and determining the value of green areas in providing CES, taking into account the demand for them. Methodologically, the work consisted in the steps: 1) identification of indicators of the effectiveness of the provision of CES, which are of decisive importance when citizens choose green areas to visit, which is an aspect of the CES offer (residents' perception of green areas; the character of their use; value and suitability to perform recreational and wellness functions; indicators defining restrictions on the use of green areas, etc.) 2) Normalization of calculated indicators based on a single scale, to determine the total volume of the CES offer: was applied the one-sided increasing Harrington desirability function. 3) Development of a methodology for the entire CES calculation. According to the general algorithm, the evaluation was based on the sequential determination of the potential of the green zone in providing CES, as an average value of the indicators of perception of the territory and of the total CES offer - the number of CES that the green zone is able to provide, taking into account the value of CES restrictions. As a result of calculations according to the algorithm, an assessment of the volume of CES of was estimated in the selected 14 green zones of the city Kyiv. The calculation showed that none of the selected green zones provide the maximum volumes of CES, only 3 of them have higher than average volumes, 9 have average volumes, and 1 green zone each has minimum and lower than average volumes. At the same time, the potential of the researched green zones for the provision of CES: the maximum volumes in 2 zones and in the absolute majority - 11 is higher than the average volume. Accordingly, in almost all green zones there is a lack of receipt (loss) of significant amounts of CES, mainly due to the presence of problems that lead to a deterioration of the perception of green zones by residents. In order to determine the consumer value of green zones the indicator of alternative availability of green zones was used, which reflects the ratio of supply of ES and demand for them. Among those investigated in the work, 2 green zones were identified, which due to low supply in areas with high demand for CES, should receive maximum attention when making priority management decisions. Thus, the research solved the scientific task of objectively taking into account in the CES evaluation all aspects that determine the CES offer. This method, in combination with the determination of the value of green areas in providing CES, can be used in urban planning practice as a tool for improving the quality of urban green areas, their sustainable development and providing citizens with the maximum amount of CES.

Mapping cultural ecosystem services provision: An integrated model of recreation and ecotourism opportunities

Recreation and ecotourism opportunities are significant and complex Cultural Ecosystem Services, including various ecological and socio-economic aspects. Therefore, an integrated approach is needed to address these service complexities to help inform recreation and tourism planning and management. This study aims to develop an integrated model to map and assess Recreation Opportunity Ecosystem Services (ROES) in the north of Iran involving various ecosystem attributes and indicators. The methodological framework followed in this study allowed us to identify the spatial distribution pattern of recreation ES supply and demand in the study area. Particularly, this study explored the spatial mismatches between the capacity of ecosystems to provide recreational services and societal needs by applying a supply-demand ratio indicator. To predict the future pattern of recreation ES provision in the study area, two scenarios were performed. The results showed that the areas with the highest ROES provision account for only a small share of the study area where there is a high ecosystem potential to fulfill human demand for recreation ES. The results of the mismatch analysis revealed that urban and rural areas showed a shortfall in supply, whereas the areas with a high degree of naturalness exhibited an excess supply than demand. The hot spot analysis performed for two current and future scenarios showed that the areas of recreation ES hot spots considerably decreased due to population growth and land use change in the study area over a 30-year period. Our findings can provide insights for decision-making and spatial planning to maintain recreation ES and the benefits delivered to users.

Valuing cultural ecosystem services combining deep learning and benefit transfer approach

The importance placed by policy-makers on cultural ecosystem services (CES) is on the rise worldwide, inducing a growing interest in the development of innovative approaches for their mapping, characterization, and assessment. Previous studies have shown how the analysis of the content of geotagged images shared on social media can be used to shed a light on CES provision and consumption without having to resort to time-consuming surveys and interviews. However, to make this approach viable over large study areas, the image classification process must be automatized and new developments of deep learning field have the potential to do so. To evaluate this potential, we have gathered over 91,000 images acquired within British Columbia (Canada) provincial parks system and then trained and deployed convolutional neural networks (CNN) to classify them. Images were classified based on: (i) their relevance in the context of CES research; (ii) the type of CES depicted (aesthetic or recreation); and (iii) the type of aesthetic experience or recreational activity depicted; with an estimated accuracy of 85 %. Then we combined the outcomes of the image classification process with images metadata to assess the value of the recreational ecosystem service provided by the most popular parks with an innovative crowdsourced benefit transfer approach, obtaining values that range from the 105.2 M CAN$ of Cypress park to the 0.3 M CAN$ of Lac du Bois park. Our findings show how crowdsourced social media images, coupled with the new developments of deep learning, offer to ecosystem managers across the world the opportunity of gathering cheap, fine scale, and comprehensive information about CES. Finally, we address the limitations and future perspectives of automated image classification for CES research.

Evaluating the supply-demand balance of cultural ecosystem services with budget expectation in Shenzhen, China

Sufficient research on cultural ecosystem services (CESs) helps decision makers realize developmental and environmental goals in urban planning, budget allocation, and municipal service provision. The Bayesian belief network (BBN), as a semi-quantitative model, can be used to infer the supply and demand match for CESs. Taking Shenzhen as the study area, we evaluated the CES supply and demand. We used a BBN to simulate the CES supply and demand and identify the key influencing factors affecting the CES budget. CES budget expectations were created to indicate the CES supply and demand balance. The main conclusions are as follows. (1) Considering the community as the evaluation unit, the satisfaction rate of CES demand was 62.5% in Shenzhen. (2) Communities with a high possibility of a CES deficit are primarily distributed in Futian, Nanshan, Luohu, and Bao’an Districts, accounting for 7.45% of the area of Shenzhen. (3) The population density, CES supply potential, and CES supply opportunity jointly determined the CES supply and demand balance. (4) The CES budget expectation results demonstrate that communities with a high risk of imbalance are widely distributed, and balanced communities are primarily concentrated in the Guangming, Pingshan, and Dapeng New Areas. (5) It is necessary to enhance the fairness of CES supply in Shenzhen through the promotion of green space, improvement of infrastructure, and interconnection of communities. By combining BBN with CES as an exercise, this study aims to enrich the methods for evaluating the CES supply and demand balance, providing scientific suggestions for Shenzhen to build a livable city and achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.

Evaluating the supply and demand of cultural ecosystem services in the Tibetan Plateau of China

ContextIn the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the supply of cultural ecosystem services (CESs) is unique, and the demand for CESs is gradually increasing with rapid urbanization. Evaluating the relationship between the supply and demand for CESs is critical for guiding regional sustainable development. However, due to the difficulty in obtaining empirical data in the high altitude and complex topography of the TP, relevant research is still lacking.ObjectivesThe objective of this study was to develop an approach to address the difficulty of obtaining the empirical data on the TP and to evaluate the relationship between the supply and demand for CESs.MethodsTaking the Qinghaihu–Huangshui basin as an example, we combined the SolVES (Social Values for Ecosystem Services) model and social media big data to evaluate the supply and demand for CESs in the TP.ResultsOur results showed that the combined method can effectively evaluate the supply and demand for CESs in the basin, and can be used for other remote regions. The supply and demand for CESs in the basin exhibited obvious spatial mismatch. Among the two types of mismatch, in the areas of high supply and low demand of CESs, residents’ subjective well-being (SWB) were substantially lower. Being far away from central city was an important reason for the high supply and low demand of CESs.ConclusionsEstablishing and improving the transportation system connecting central cities with other counties is encouraged to utilize the rich cultural and tourism resources of the TP, as well as enhance the SWB and promote regional sustainable development.

Urban forest usage and perception of ecosystem services – A comparison between teenagers and adults

Urban forests provide multiple ecosystem services for a range of user groups. However, teenagers are commonly underrepresented in studies about forest recreation and cultural ecosystem services. This paper examines teenagers' forest use and perception of ecosystem services compared to adult populations. We used an online panel survey to elicit motives for forest visits, frequency of visits, forest activities and constraints for visitation, and what ecosystem services participants expect from forests more generally. We then elicited perceived cultural ecosystem services of different forests by showing participants photographs of forest inventory plots for which we had detailed measures of physical forest characteristics to statistically assess the influence of forest characteristics and other parameters on perceived cultural ecosystem services. Results show that teenagers visit forests less often and also differ from adults in their preferences and activities, their motives for forest visits and reasons for not visiting forests. Teenagers exhibit more social and active forms of forest use, whereas adults use forests in more contemplative ways. Perception of cultural ecosystem services on forest photos was influenced by individual factors such as motives for forest visits, preferences, importance of forest during childhood and socio-demographic factors. Environment- and forest-related factors such as forest type, stand structure and single elements such as root plates and stumps had an influence on ecosystem service perception. We conclude that teenagers have different needs than adults concerning the provision of cultural ecosystem services from forests and therefore should be considered as a user group of its own in the management of recreational forests.

Identifying the Spatial Imbalance in the Supply and Demand of Cultural Ecosystem Services.

Cultural ecosystem services (CESs) are an important part of ecosystem services (ESs). Correctly understanding the supply and demand relationship of CES is the premise of ES sustainable management and helps to improve human well-being. However, the evaluation and mapping of CES supply and demand represents a significant gap in ES research. Using the Shigou Township of Mizhi County in China as an example, in this study, we evaluated CES supply and demand at the village scale. We first considered three aspects of supply potential, accessibility and quality to construct an indicator system of six types of CES supply, including aesthetic (Aest), sense of place (SP), social relations (SR), cultural heritage (Cult), education (Edu) and recreation (Recr) and obtained demand data through a questionnaire. Then, we identified the imbalance in the supply and demand of CES by Z-score standardization based on the quantification of the CES supply and demand. Secondly, bivariate spatial autocorrelation analysis was used to identify tradeoffs/synergies on the CES supply side, and chi-square tests were used to identify CES demand differences between stakeholder groups. The results indicated that the supply–demand patterns of CES presented evident spatial differences. The low-supply–high-demand patterns of Aest, SR and Recr accounted for the largest proportions, with values of 33.33%, 33.33% and 30.95%, respectively. The low-supply–low-demand patterns of SP and Cult accounted for the largest proportions, with values of 30.95% and 38.10%, respectively. The low-supply–low-demand pattern of Edu accounted for the smallest proportion (21.43%) and was mainly located in the south of Shigou Township. The southwest, northeast and central areas of Shigou Township were the key regions of tradeoffs/synergies of CES supply. There were significant differences in CES demand for SR, Cult and Edu among stakeholder groups. The results could contribute to optimizing regional ecosystem management and provide effective information for improving the imbalance between the supply and demand of CES.

Approach to user group-specific assessment of urban green spaces for a more equitable supply exemplified by the elderly population

The use of urban green spaces (UGS) depends on its quality, which is perceived very differently by diverse socio-demographic groups. In particular, elderly people have special demands on the UGS quality. It is essential to know these demands to create an equitable UGS supply. We present an approach to determining some qualitative aspects and the supply of cultural ecosystem services of diverse forms of UGS. This is realised by combining user demands with actual UGS features. In a concrete example, we assessed the UGS quality and supply for both the general population and the subset of elderly people. For the latter group, the activities of relaxing and observing nature, as well as the UGS feature of benches, were found to be significantly more important than for the general population. Nevertheless, this had only a minor impact on the assessed aspects of UGS quality and supply, with little differences detected between the two groups. In Dresden (Germany), we determined that almost half of the elderly population are not provided with high-quality UGS. In these areas, urban planning must increase the UGS quality while taking user demands into account to ensure just access to the positive benefits of UGS for the elderly.

Can We Foresee Landscape Interest? Maximum Entropy Applied to Social Media Photographs: A Case Study in Madrid

Cultural Ecosystem Services (CES) are undervalued and poorly understood compared to other types of ecosystem services. The sociocultural preferences of the different actors who enjoy a landscape are intangible aspects of a complex evaluation. Landscape photographs available on social media have opened up the possibility of quantifying landscape values and ecosystem services that were previously difficult to measure. Thus, a new research methodology has been developed based on the spatial distribution of geotagged photographs that, based on probabilistic models, allows us to estimate the potential of the landscape to provide CES. This study tests the effectiveness of predictive models from MaxEnt, a software based on a machine learning technique called the maximum entropy approach, as tools for land management and for detecting CES hot spots. From a sample of photographs obtained from the Panoramio network, taken between 2007 and 2008 in the Lozoya Valley in Madrid (Central Spain), we have developed a predictive model of the future and compared it with the photographs available on the social network between 2009 and 2015. The results highlight a low correspondence between the prediction of the supply of CES and its real demand, which indicates that MaxEnt is not a sufficiently useful predictive tool in complex and changing landscapes such as the one studied here.