Cultivated Land Change Research Articles

DDAM-Net: A Difference-Directed Multi-Scale Attention Mechanism Network for Cultivated Land Change Detection.

Declining cultivated land poses a serious threat to food security. However, existing Change Detection (CD) methods are insufficient for overcoming intra-class differences in cropland, and the accumulation of irrelevant features and loss of key features leads to poor detection results. To effectively identify changes in agricultural land, we propose a Difference-Directed Multi-scale Attention Mechanism Network (DDAM-Net). Specifically, we use a feature extraction module to effectively extract the cropland's multi-scale features from dual-temporal images, and we introduce a Difference Enhancement Fusion Module (DEFM) and a Cross-scale Aggregation Module (CAM) to pass and fuse the multi-scale and difference features layer by layer. In addition, we introduce the Attention Refinement Module (ARM) to optimize the edge and detail features of changing objects. In the experiments, we evaluated the applicability of DDAM-Net on the HN-CLCD dataset for cropland CD and non-agricultural identification, with F1 and precision of 79.27% and 80.70%, respectively. In addition, generalization experiments using the publicly accessible PX-CLCD and SET-CLCD datasets revealed F1 and precision values of 95.12% and 95.47%, and 72.40% and 77.59%, respectively. The relevant comparative and ablation experiments suggested that DDAM-Net has greater performance and reliability in detecting cropland changes.

Spatial zoning and effect evaluation of county high-standard farmland siting delineation for sustainable cultivated land use in China: A case study in Dali, Shaanxi

High-standard farmland construction is critical for sustainable land use and food security in China. Currently, scientific siting delineation for high-standard farmland at the county level is lacking. Delineation through evaluation and zoning is essential to improve land productivity. This study focuses on Dali County in Shaanxi Province, Fenwei Plain. It analyzes cultivated land changes using the land use transfer matrix and the PLUS. By integrating macro “township-parcel-grid” and micro “farmer” perspective, it establishes a comprehensive evaluation system for high-standard farmland delineation. We delineate construction zones and evaluate potential effect of high-standard farmland. The results reveal that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the cultivated land area generally decreased. The permanent basic farmland positively contributes to the increase of cultivated land. Land use simulation in 2030 results show that the urgency for land consolidation. (2) The delineated high-standard farmland area in Dali is 85,081 hm2, with comprehensive evaluation index values ranging from 0.2229 to 0.5970, indicating that Dali has the potential for continuous construction of high-standard farmland. (3) This study zones high-standard farmland construction according to the difficulty and time sequence. Delineated high-standard farmland can play potential effect of agglomeration and demonstration, sustainable and coordinated development and grain production capacity increasing. We offer a scientific method for delineating zones of high-standard farmland within county, providing recommendations for sustainable high-standard farmland construction. It serves as a reference for the gradual conversion of all permanent basic farmland to high-standard farmland in China.

Potential ecological risk assessment based on loss of ecosystem services due to land use and land cover change: A case study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

Ecosystem services (ESs) bridge the gap between human wellbeing and ecosystem processes. Land use and land cover change (LUCC) affect ecosystem services by altering the structure and function of ecosystems. Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH), one of the most developed urban agglomerations in China, is subject to intense LUCC that affects ESs while increasing the regional ecological risk (ER). Therefore, to achieve the coordinated development of socioeconomic and ecological quality, there is an urgent need to establish a regional ecological risk assessment (ERA). ESs were introduced into the ERA to clarify their ecological significance and to compensate for the deficiencies of the traditional ERA. In this study, the ERA utilizes key ESs as endpoints to assess potential ER through a new framework by multiplying the probability of LUCC by the resultant loss of key ESs. We found that cultivated land was the most dominant outflow type and built-up land was the predominant inflow type. From 2020 to 2030, there is a greater possibility of changes in cultivated land, forest, grassland, and built-up land as well as in relatively stable water bodies and unused land. Overall, ESs show a positive trend. The overall potential ER was relatively minimal, with a significant northwestern spatially concentrated characteristic of high values. This study helps understand the potential development process of ERs and provides a scientific basis for risk management.

How does cultivated land fragmentation affect soil erosion: Evidence from the Yangtze River Basin in China

Reducing soil erosion (SE) is crucial for achieving harmony between human society and the ecological environment. The cultivated land fragmentation (CLF), directly or indirectly, alters soil structure, diminishes its water-holding capacity, and escalates the risk of SE. Scientific assessment of the effect of CLF on SE can provide new insights into controlling of SE across watersheds in China. However, few studies have quantified the effect of CLF on SE. Therefore, we utilized land use change data in the Yangtze River basin from 2000 to 2020, measuring the levels of CLF and SE using Fragstats and InVEST models. The bivariate spatial autocorrelation model was employed to reveal the spatial relationship between CLF and SE. Additionally, we constructed a spatial Durbin model and introduced the geographically and temporally weighted regression model to analyze the role of CLF on SE. The south bank of the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River basin exhibited high CLF and SE. The bivariate spatial autocorrelation results showed a significant positive spatial correlation between CLF and SE. The spatial Durbin model results showed that CLF had a spatial spillover effect and time lag on SE, and the effect of CLF on SE had an inverted “N" curve. The study also confirmed that last SE and neighboring SE areas influenced local SE. Currently, CLF had a negative effect on SE in the Sichuan Basin, Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, and the middle and lower Yangtze River Plain, and positively in Qinghai, Hunan, and Jiangxi provinces. These findings suggest that the government should enhance cross-regional and cross-sectoral cooperation and monitoring of cultivated land changes to prevent and control SE effectively.

Comparison of comprehensive benefits of land-use systems under multi- and single-element governance

Considering the decline in the ecosystem service value (ESV) caused by rapid urbanization, China has recently conducted large-scale comprehensive ecological governance of “mountain, water, forest, field, lake and grass”; however, theoretical analyses of such systematic governance are lacking. This study compares the effects of multi- and single-element governance from a systematic perspective. This study proposes a hierarchical model integrating land-use simulation and comprehensive benefit evaluation based on remote sensing data of land-use in the Hebei Province, China, between 2000 and 2019. It compares the ESV and subtotal ecological-economic product (SEP), which reflects comprehensive benefits under ten governance scenarios. The results revealed significant urban expansion, amounting to 7516 km2, with significant changes in cultivated land and grassland. The ESV increased from 89.2 to 134.6 billion USD from 2000 to 2019, with regulatory and support services as the primary types of ecosystem services. With single-element governance, the ESV and SEP of water area governance were higher than those of woodland and cultivated land. With multi-element governance, the ESV and SEP of governance focusing on water areas were higher than those focusing on woodland and cultivated land. Moreover, multi-element ecological governance was found to be superior to single-element governance. Ecological governance of water areas and woodland ensured higher comprehensive benefits, while avoiding risks caused by excessive changes in land-use structure. The lower ESV and ESP of other multi- and single-element governance were primarily owing to two types of conversion: 1) grassland to woodland and cultivated land, and 2) water areas to cultivated land. Therefore, it is necessary to focus on the core elements of regional ecosystems and implement comprehensive ecological governance, address practical problems of land consolidation and ecological governance, and appropriately introduce market forces to realize the operation and management of the entire process and life cycle. These findings could provide a scientific reference for other regions in China and other developing countries implementing ecological governance practices.

A non‐grain production on cropland spatiotemporal change detection method based on Landsat time‐series data

AbstractGlobal food security is being threatened by the reduction of high‐quality cropland, extreme weather events, and the uncertainty of food supply chains. The globalization of agricultural trade has elevated the diversification of non‐grain production (NGP) on cultivated land to a prominent strategy for poverty alleviation in numerous developing nations. Its rapid expansion has engendered a multitude of deleterious consequences on both food security and ecological stability. NGP in China is becoming very common in the process of rapid urbanization, threatening national food security. To better understand the causal mechanisms and enable governments to balance food security and rural development, it is crucial to have a clear understanding of the spatiotemporal dynamics of NGP using remote sensing. Yet knowledge gaps remain concerning how to use remote sensing to track human‐dominated or ‐induced long‐term cultivated land changes. Our study proposed a method for detecting the spatiotemporal evolution of NGP based on Landsat time‐series data under the Google Earth Engine platform. This approach was proposed by (1) obtaining the union of cultivated lands from multiple landcover products to minimize the cultivated land omission, (2) constructing multi‐index dynamic trend rules for 3 representative types of NGP and obtaining results at the pixel level, while adopting the continuous change detection and classification algorithm to Landsat time series (1986–2022) to determine when the most recent change occurred, (3) minimizing the noise by object‐oriented land use–land cover classification and mode filter approaches, and (4) mapping the spatiotemporal distribution of NGP. The proposed methodology was tested in Jiashan, located in Zhejiang Province (eastern China), where NGP is widespread. We achieved a high overall accuracy of 95.67% for NGP type detection and an overall accuracy of 85.26% for change detection of time. The results indicated a continued increasing pattern of NGP in Jiashan from 1986 to 2022, with the cumulative percentage of NGP increasing from 0.02% to 20.69%. This study highlights the utilization of time‐series data to document essential NGP information for evaluating food security in China and the method is well‐suited for large‐scale mapping due to its automatic manner.

Spatiotemporal change of cultivated land in China during 2000-2020.

Cultivated land is of great significance for ensuring food security. Since the 21st century, China's rapid development has led to urban construction occupying a lot of cultivated land. The understanding of stage characteristics and regional differences needs to be improved. And it is necessary to quantify the temporal and spatial pattern of cultivated land changes since the 21st century. We used the global land cover dataset (GlobeLand30) to investigate the quantity and spatial distribution of cultivated land change in China from 2000 to 2020. The results show that: 1) Over the last two decades, China's arable land has diminished by 54,996 square kilometers. Notably, the arable land loss between 2010 and 2020 was 1.74 times greater than that from 2000 to 2010. This decline has been exacerbated by factors such as the expansion of urban and rural areas, as well as initiatives to revert farmland to forests and grasslands; 2) The eastern coastal regions experienced the most severe net arable land loss, with a net reduction of 42,989 square kilometers from 2000 to 2020, primarily driven by urban expansion; 3) In contrast, the western regions demonstrated the most substantial net increase in arable land, expanding by 11,583 square kilometers from 2000 to 2020, primarily driven by the development of forests and grasslands. It is noteworthy that despite some areas successfully implementing policies to return farmland to forests and grasslands, the ecologically fragile western regions continue to experience accelerated conversion of these natural landscapes into arable land, partly to compensate for the farmland decrease driven by urbanization in the eastern regions. Looking ahead, China's cultivated protection policy must strike a balance between the ecological value of the western region and the economic value of the eastern region.

Spatial heterogeneity evolution and driving mechanism analysis of land use change in major river basins: a case study of urban agglomerations in the Yellow River Basin

Exploring the dynamics of land resource distribution within major river basins is pivotal for informing ecological conservation efforts and fostering sustainable development. The Yellow River Basin is a crucial region for human activities and economic development in China. This study meticulously examines the evolution of land use patterns across the seven principal urban agglomerations within the Yellow River Basin from 1990 to 2020. Employing the Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) model, the research rigorously scrutinizes the multi-scale spatial heterogeneity of cultivated land dynamics within urban agglomerations during the years 2010 and 2020. The results show pronounced disparities in land utilization among urban agglomerations, with upstream areas predominantly characterized by grass and downstream regions dominated by cultivated land. Noteworthy is the significant expansion of construction land, particularly manifesting dynamic shifts over time. Furthermore, the driving mechanisms exhibit discernible scale variations, with evident spatial heterogeneity in their impact on cultivated land changes.

SNUNet3+: A Full-Scale Connected Siamese Network and a Dataset for Cultivated Land Change Detection in High-Resolution Remote-Sensing Images

SNUNet3+: A Full-Scale Connected Siamese Network and a Dataset for Cultivated Land Change Detection in High-Resolution Remote-Sensing Images

Spatial heterogeneity characteristics and driving mechanism of land use change in Henan Province, China

We conducted a scientific quantitative analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of land use in Henan Province using a spatial zoning approach. The province was divided into five distinctive regions. Employing methods, such as information mapping, we analyzed land use data for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, investigating spatiotemporal evolution and differences. Additionally, we employed a geographic detector model to explore the dominant factors behind land use changes in 2010 and 2020. Primary land classes in Henan Province included cultivated land, forests, and construction, with cultivated land transitioning mainly to forests and construction. However, regional analyses revealed diverse outcomes. In the Yudong area, cultivated land dominated with an 80% area proportion, shifting mostly to construction. In the Yubei area, grassland transformed into cultivated land and forests, with escalating grassland loss. The Yuxi area exhibited a 40% forest area proportion, with frequent mutual conversions between forests, cultivated land, and grassland. Spatiotemporal evolution indicated active changes in cultivated land. The geographic detector revealed a shift in influential factors from natural to economic drivers for cultivated land changes in Henan Province between 2010 and 2020. By uncovering land use disparities across regions, we contribute suggestions for sustainable development decisions regarding land use in Henan.

Dynamic simulation and analysis of land use competition patterns to support sustainable territorial spatial management: a case study of Shenyang City, Northeast China.

Under the context of territorial spatial planning in the new era, it is of great significance to analyze the future land use competition pattern to construct a sustainable and adaptive management strategy for territorial spatial development and utilization protection. Taking Shenyang, a megacity in Northeast China, as the case study area, and the geographic information system technologies and the patch-generation land use simulation (PLUS) model was used to simulate the land use competition pattern in 2030 under four scenarios. Meanwhile, the dynamic evolution of territorial spatial structure competition was monitored based on the perspective of agricultural, ecological, and construction land space. The results show that land use competition was driven by food security, economic growth, and ecological protection. The results showed that (1) the most frequent changes in cultivated land and construction land were found in 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, and their competitive advantage among land use types was obvious. As for the driving mechanism, the influencing effect of socioeconomic factors on land use type competition was more significant than that of natural factors. (2) The competitive dominance scenario of cultivated land protection and the synergistic dominance scenario of cultivated land, ecological, and construction could help optimize and control the land use competition pattern. (3) The information entropy and equilibrium index of the territorial spatial structure increase in both scenarios; the dominance index decreases, and the proportion of agricultural, ecological, and construction space is more coordinated. The results may assist a holistic understanding of land use change to coordinate the competition among agricultural, ecological, and construction space and facilitate the realization of high-quality territorial spatial development goals.

Analyzing the Characteristics of Cropping Intensity’s Change of Cultivated Land in China During 2010-2019

The sustained stability of the arable land replanting index is crucial to the national food security strategy. The exploration of the temporal and spatial changes in the arable land replanting index is of great significance for agricultural development and food security evaluation. This study investigates China’s arable land replanting index from 2010 to 2019 using MODIS NDVI image data, S-G filtering, and quadratic differentiation methods. The results show that there are significant spatial differences in China’s arable land replanting index, with the Huang-Huai-Hai region mainly producing double-cropping crops, the Northeast Plain and Loess Plateau mainly producing single-cropping crops, and the area south of the Yangtze River mainly producing multiple-cropping crops. Overall, China’s food production is mainly based on single-season crops. There is a gradual shift towards double-season crops from north to south, with lower replanting indices in the northwest and higher indices in the eastern provinces. The south has significantly higher indices than the north. During the study period, the arable land replanting index showed an overall upward trend. There were significant increases in the replanting index in the northeast, the Loess Plateau, and the northern Huang-Huai-Hai region. However, there was a downward trend in the southern Huang-Huai-Hai region and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. It is crucial to maintain the effective planting area of arable land in the Loess Plateau and the double-season planting area of arable land in the Huang-Huai-Hai region while also addressing the downward trend of the arable land replanting index in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River to ensure food security by stabilizing the index.

Multi-scenario simulation analysis of cultivated land based on PLUS model—a case study of Haikou, China

Land-use changes have received increasing attention since the 1990s. Cultivated land is a vital land resource with both natural and economic features. Socioeconomic development profoundly affects the spatiotemporal evolution of cultivated land. In turn, the spatiotemporal change of cultivated land also reflects the socioeconomic development trend. This study took Haikou City, which has the highest degree of urbanization in Hainan Province, as the study area, analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of its cultivated land resources during the past 20 years of rapid socioeconomic development, and predicted the future spatiotemporal evolution trends of its cultivated land resources on this basis, to provide scientific reference for the rational use and sustainable development of the cultivated land resources in Haikou. This study applied the single land-use dynamic degree (SLUDD) and land-use transfer matrix to explore the spatiotemporal evolution of cultivated land in Haikou from 2000 to 2020. The patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) model was introduced to predict the patterns of cultivated land under different development scenarios in 2030. The results showed that: (1) although rapid socioeconomic development has contributed to Haikou's urbanization rate over the past 20 years, the accompanying expansion of construction land has caused damage to cultivated land resources, especially in urban suburbs. Site conditions, differential land benefits, and urban economic radiation may be potential influencing factors leading to the loss of peri-urban cultivated land; (2) it was verified that the PLUS model applies to the land-use patterns prediction in Haikou; and (3) the simulation results of both natural and urban development scenarios not only predicted the continued loss of cultivated land in the original zone but also exposed new sites of cultivated land loss. Although construction land expansion is an inevitable trend, there is still hope that the expansion rate can be controlled, for example, under the cultivated land conservation scenario. The simulation results of the three scenarios have essential reference values for the future maintenance of cultivated land resource security in Haikou.

Multi-scenario simulation and optimization control of ecological security based on GeoSOS-FLUS model in ecological fragile area in northeast Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China

Under the dual influence of climate change and human activities, the structure and function of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau ecosystem have undergone profound changes, and its ecological security has been a frequent focus of academic attention. The calculation of the ecological security bottom line (ESBL) is an essential step in the study of ecological security. However, the current calculation of the ESBL in the ecologically fragile areas of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTPEFA) has been carried out only from the perspective of supply, and research from the perspective of demand has been largely ignored. Therefore, taking Qinghai Province as study case, this paper exploratively calculated the ESBL from the perspective of supply and demand in combination with food security standards. Simulation of future trends in land-use change and ecosystem service value (ESV) evolution based on GeoSOS-FLUS under four scenarios, i.e., natural development (ND), ecological protection (EP), cultivated land protection (CLP) and dual protection (DP), we explored which protection measures move the ESV closer to the demand ecological security bottom line (DESBL) to provide reasonable suggestions for eco-protection policies. The results showed that: (1) The overall ESV in Qinghai Province showed a continuous increase during the study period, but the change of cultivated land led to different degrees of ESV loss. (2) The ESBL of both supply and demand in Qinghai Province were 6003.41 hundred million and 13132.46 hundred million, respectively. At present, the actual ESV of Qinghai Province is higher than the supply ecological security bottom line (SESBL) but far below the DESBL. (3) Under the four scenarios, the ESV under the DP scenario was closest to the DESBL and provided relatively more food. The DP scenario was most conducive to balancing ecological security and food security in Qinghai Province. This paper provides a new paradigm for measuring the ESBL and provides a scientific basis for optimizing ecological protection policies in the QTPEFA by comparing the results of multi-scenario simulation with the bottom line.

Analysis of the Causal Relationship between the Spatial Change of Cultivated Land Conversion and Economic Development in North China, Using Hohhot City in Inner Mongolia as an Example

Analysis of the Causal Relationship between the Spatial Change of Cultivated Land Conversion and Economic Development in North China, Using Hohhot City in Inner Mongolia as an Example

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Cultivated Land from 2010 to 2020 in Long’an County, Karst Region, China

Spatio-temporal changes in cultivated land have a profound impact on food security and sustainable development. However, existing studies on spatio-temporal changes in cultivated land mostly focus on single factors, for instance quantity, quality and ecology, that cannot comprehensively reflect the changes in total production capacity and the sustainability of cultivated land. This study aims to construct a comprehensive analysis approach and to provide a reference basis for a comprehensive analysis of the extent of changes in overall cultivated land food-production capacity and the formulation of cultivated land conservation-related policies. This comprehensive analysis method constructed from three dimensions: quantity, production capacity and ecology, fully reflects the changes in the total amount, structure, rate of change, spatial distribution, quality, total production capacity and sustainability of cultivated land. The results from the application of this approach to Long’an County, Guangxi Province, China demonstrate that: (a) from 2010 to 2020, the total amount of cultivated land in Long’an County decreased sharply by 30.83%, accounted for mainly by the conversion into orchards, forest land and other garden land; (b) the quality of cultivated land improved by 2.71% on average, mostly in relation to natural factors; (c) the total food-production capacity of cultivated land decreased by 28.96% on average, mainly due to the decrease in the area of cultivated land; (d) both the ecological grade and the sustainability of cultivated land decreased slightly; (e) the barycenter of cultivated land migrated 3.3 km to the ecologically sensitive areas in the west, and the patch size of cultivated land decreased from an average of 2.60 hectares/pc in 2010 to that of 1.34 hectares/pc in 2020, suggesting increased fragmentation of cultivated land; and (f) the patch regularity of cultivated land decreased from 2.08 in 2010 to 1.76 in 2020, showing improved patch regularity and slightly better adaptability to mechanization. There were two main reasons for the lower, total food production capacity in Long’an County: first, the low comparative income of grain cultivation, because of which farmers spontaneously adjusted the agricultural cultivation structure to pursue high returns; and second, the lack of targeted government policies to protect cultivated land. In general, this comprehensive analysis method is applicable to other provinces in China or other regions abroad to provide a reference basis for a comprehensive understanding of changes in the food production capacity of cultivated land and the formulation of policies on cultivated land protection.

Dynamic Evolutionary Analysis of Land Use/Cover and Ecosystem Service Values on Hainan Island.

This study of Hainan Island, based on three periods of land use/cover data from 2008, 2013, and 2017, uses the intensity analysis model and landscape pattern index to portray the dynamic changes of land use on the island and a quantitative analysis of the spatial and temporal evolutionary characteristics of ecosystem service values (ESV) based on the equivalent factor method. At the same time, the response of ESV to landscape pattern changes is explored. The results indicate: (1) From 2008 to 2017, the cultivated land in the coastal areas around Hainan Island continued to expand, which squeezed out forest land and reduced its area. The growth of built-up areas in Haikou City and Sanya City was more dramatic. (2) A weakening trend in the intensity of land use on Hainan Island during the study period. There were significant changes in cultivated land, grassland, and bare land, with forest land, grassland, and water bodies transformed into cultivated land. Built-up areas increased mainly through the occupation of cultivated land, grassland, and water bodies. (3) The fragmentation of landscape patches and the diversity of landscapes on Hainan Island increased, with the distribution of landscape types tending to be balanced. (4) From 2008 to 2017, the overall ESV of the island showed an initial decrease before increasing; the main spatial distribution characteristic of the ESV was "high in the central and low in the surroundings". (5) The mean patch area, the Shannon diversity index, and the largest patch index showed clear positive correlations to ESV.

Cultivated land loss and construction land expansion in China: Evidence from national land surveys in 1996, 2009 and 2019

Knowledge of cultivated land conservation and construction land expansion in China and its provincial scale is still insufficient due to the lack of accurate and reliable data. Based on the dataset of three nationwide land surveys in China, this study used the statistical analysis and two-way fixed effect model to explore the spatio-temporal patterns and driving forces of cultivated land and construction land change in China at the provincial and regional levels during the period 1996–2019. Results show that over the past 20 years, China's cultivated land increased first and then decreased. Distinct regional land use change characteristics were also detected, showing a continual increase in Northeast China, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, and a continuous decrease in eastern coastal and southwestern provinces. The center of gravity of China's cultivated land area had a trend of moving northward as a whole. Between 1996 and 2019, the area of high-quality cultivated land with slope of 2° and below in eastern China decreased by 23.33 %, while that in the three northeastern provinces and the 13 major grain producing provinces increased by 41.66 % and 11.1 %, respectively. Construction land across the country and all provinces continued to expand, and township land was expanding faster than city and village construction land. In rapidly urbanizing China, rural settlement land did not shrink but expanded rapidly, especially in the provinces of Hebei, Shandong, Henan and Sichuan where the rural population continued to decrease substantially. The mismatch between urban expansion and population growth scale was prominent. The problem of extensive and inefficient use of rural construction land is still widespread and has become more serious. Road construction has also contributed to the expansion of construction land in China. About 80 % of cultivated land loss in China was occupied by construction purposes, while the increase of construction land was driven by the expansion of built-up areas and population growth. China's land policy to control the expansion of construction land and the loss of cultivated land appears to be a double failure. The adjustment of land use planning and land policy needs to fully consider the characteristics of regional land use change, socioeconomic level and land use demand.

Future urban waterlogging simulation based on LULC forecast model: A case study in Haining City, China

• The LULC prediction model (CLUMondo) was used to obtain LULC simulation results for 2030. • The hydrodynamic model (InfoWorks ICM) was used to simulate future urban waterlogging. • The main influencing factor of urban waterlogging is the transformation of cultivated land to construction land. • Provide a basis for scientific research and urban planning to reduce the risk of waterlogging. As a consequence of rapid urbanization, the pattern of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) has changed, resulting in a significant increase in the risk of waterlogging. Understanding the relationship between LULC change and urban waterlogging plays an important role in disaster mitigation and prevention. Taking Haining City as an example, the LULC prediction model (CLUMondo) was used to obtain LULC simulation results for 2030.The hydrodynamic model (InfoWorks ICM) was used to simulate future urban waterlogging. The results were as follows: 1) Between 2005 and 2030, the changes in cultivated land and construction land were predicted to be the most obvious. The area of cultivated land was predicted to decrease by 26.62 km 2 , and the construction land was predicted to increase by 25.17 km 2 . 2) The overall distribution of waterlogged areas and the identified at-risk areas in Haining were shown to be relatively scattered. In 2030, urban waterlogging is predicted to be more serious than in 2020. 3) The reasons for the predicted change in waterlogging are closely related to the transformation of LULC, especially the transformation of cultivated land to construction land. The results provide a basis for scientific research and urban planning to reduce the risk of waterlogging.

Study on Land Use Changes in Changsha–Zhuzhou–Xiangtan under the Background of Cultivated Land Protection Policy

The Changsha–Zhuzhou–Xiangtan region has experienced rapid social and economic development over the past 40 years, and cultivated land has changed dramatically. The contradiction between built and cultivated land has intensified, for which the local government has implemented a series of policies related to cultivated land protection. However, thus far, it is not clear what the substantial effects of the cultivated land protection policies are. To this end, this paper quantitatively characterizes the changes in the Changsha–Zhuzhou–Xiangtan region during the 20 years before and after the implementation of the cultivated land occupation balance policy, based on land use data from 1980, 2000, and 2020 using intensity analysis. In this paper, we examine the types of spatial land use patterns occurring in Changsha–Zhuzhou–Xiangtan since 1980 and explore the transition path of land use types in urban–rural integration. After the cultivated land protection policy, the transformation relationship between land use types and the changing trend of the cultivated land area was analyzed from the landscape scale. The influence of policy factors on the transformation of land use types was revealed. The results show that, from 1980 to 2020, the changing intensity of construction land and unused land was relatively large and was in an active state; the amount of built land in the Changsha–Zhuzhou–Xiangtan region has been growing, with a net increase of 1101 km2, while the amount of cultivated land has been showing a net decrease, with a net reduction of 677 km2. Moreover, the cultivated land has mainly been converted into built land, and the lost cultivated land area in Changsha–Zhuzhou–Xiangtan has not been fully compensated elsewhere in the region, indicating that the cultivated land protection policy has not been able to maintain the cultivated land area in Changsha–Zhuzhou–Xiangtan. From 2000 to 2020, cultivated land change was mainly due to exchange, which indicates that the policy has had a particular effect on the protection of cultivated land. Still, if the government wants to achieve the “balance of cultivated land occupation and compensation” goal, it must establish a complete system for the allocation of cultivated land resources. This study can provide a scientific reference for further implementing the cultivated land protection policy, which is thus of great significance for promoting the construction of the Changsha–Zhuzhou–Xiangtan region and its high-quality economic and social development.