Crude Mortality Research Articles

Rising mortality rates linked to type-2 diabetes and obesity in the United States: An observational analysis from 1999 to 2022.

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and obesity are increasing in the United States. However, population-level data for mortality trends due to T2D and obesity are limited. This study aims to assess these death trends among adults in the United States categorized by sex, race, and geographical location. We queried the CDC-WONDER database for multiple cause of death data of adults aged ≥25 years. The crude mortality rates (CMR), age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs), annual percent change (APC), and the average APC (AAPC) along with a 95% confidence interval (CI) were analyzed. From 1999 to 2022, a total of 88,597 T2DM and obesity-related deaths were recorded in the United States. The AAMR consistently increased from 1999 to 2017 (APC: 7.64; 95% CI: 1.91-9.96), followed by a marked rise from 2017 to 2022 (APC: 20.13; 95% CI: 12.88-38.57). The AAMR was approximately 3.58 times higher during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the period from 1999 to 2019. The AAMR for males was consistently greater than that for females. The highest AAMR was observed in non-Hispanic (NH) Blacks or African Americans, followed by NH White, Hispanic or Latino, and other NH populations. Rural areas (AAMR: 1.86, 95% CI: 1.83-1.89) exhibited a greater AAMR than urban regions 1.26 (95% CI: 1.25-1.27). Our results indicate a substantial increasing trend of T2D and obesity-related deaths in the United States especially during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Presentation and Outcomes of Histoplasmosis in Transplant Recipients: A Retrospective Single-Centre Cohort Study.

Histoplasmosis is an important infection among transplant recipients. Few studies have described its epidemiology and outcomes in the modern era. We conducted a retrospective analysis using medical records from a single center in the United States. We included patients 18 years or older with histoplasmosis. We divided the cohort into transplant recipients and immunocompetent groups to assess the outcomes in both groups. We utilized Cox hazard models to assess 90-day all-cause mortality. The study included 137 patients; with 28 (20%) transplant recipients. After the first year post-transplant, patients with lung transplant (30%) had a diagnosis of histoplasmosis. Transplant recipients exhibited a significantly higher incidence of disseminated histoplasmosis than immunocompetent patients (64%vs. 34%, p = 0.001), higher admission to ICU (39%vs. 16%; p = 0.01) and higher but not significant 90-day crude all-cause mortality (14%vs. 11%, p = 0.71). Patients with transplants had a higher, but not significant hazard of all-cause mortality at 90 days (hazard ratio: 1.5; 95% confidence interval: 0.4-3.9) when compared to immunocompetent patients. Transplant recipients were more commonly diagnosed with histoplasmosis after the first year post-transplantation, and although they exhibited a higher hazard for death at 90 days, this increase was not statistically significant.

Trends and Disparities in Cardiovascular Disease-Related Mortality among Adults with Myeloproliferative Neoplasms in the United States

Abstract Aims We aimed to perform a retrospective cohort study using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention`s (CDC's) Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) database to analyze the trends in cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related mortality in patients with myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN) from 1999-2020. Methods and Results We analyzed the death certificate data from the CDC WONDER database from 1999 to 2020 for CVD with co-morbid myeloproliferative disorders in the US population. Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed per 1 million population by standardizing crude mortality rates to the 2000 US census population. To assess annual national mortality trends, we employed the Joinpoint regression model, calculating the annual percent change (APC) in AAMR and corresponding 95% CIs. A total of 15,269 deaths related to CVD occurred in patients with co-morbid myeloproliferative neoplasms from 1999-2020. Overall, there was a decreasing trend in CVD-related AAMRs throughout these years. Males contributed to 51% of total deaths and their AAMR was persistently higher than women throughout the study. Non-Hispanic (NH) Whites had the highest overall AAMR, followed by NH Blacks, NH American Indians or Alaska Natives, Hispanics or Latinos, and NH Asian or Pacific Islanders. Conclusion Our findings indicate a significant decline with notable gender, racial/ethnic, and regional differences in CVD-related mortality among patients with MPN over the past two decades. We emphasize the importance of a collaborative approach between oncologists and cardiologists in managing these patients, highlighting the potential benefits of integrating cardio-oncology services to enhance patient outcomes.

Method validation and antioxidant activities of Hyperacanthus amoenus and Carissa bispinosa.

Plant foliages used as feed additives pose a health risk due to high oxidant concentrations. Oxidants cause oxidative stress and high rate of morbidities and mortalities. Hence, the aim of the study was to validate the methods to quantify gallic acid (GA) and quercetin (Q) as putative antioxidants, and to evaluate antioxidant activities in feed (F),Hyperacanthus amoenus(HA) andCarissa bispinosa(CB) extracts. Extraction was carried out with 62.5% methanol. Method validations for linearity, accuracy and precision were performed on high performance liquid chromatography. Quantitative analysis of GA and Q and testing of 2,2-diphenyl-2-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH) scavenging activities in the extracts were performed. The lowest limit of detection (LOD) and limit of quantitation (LOQ) of 0.011 µg/mL and 0.032 µg/mL were determined in HA, respectively. The methods were accurate and precise as the relative standard deviations (%RSD) were less than 15%. The GA concentrations in CB and HA extracts were statistically significant (p 0.05) and their values were 0.65 ± 0.03 x 106µg/kg dry weight (DW) (0.13%) and 0.28 ± 0.06 x 106µg/kg DW (0.002%), respectively. All extracts showed very strong radical scavenging activities with their IC50values ranging between 5.87 µg/mL and 6.86 µg/mL.Contribution:These accurate, repeatable, precise and reliable methods can be used to provide a valuable basis for GA and Q analysis in various shrub foliages. Though high GA concentrations have potential to act as antioxidants, they may have adverse health and growth performance effects when used as feed additives, while lower Q concentrations may have no effects on livestock.

Trends in sepsis-associated cardiovascular disease mortality in the United States, 1999 to 2022

PurposeCardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the United States, and sepsis significantly contributes to hospitalization and mortality. This study aims to assess the trends of sepsis-associated CVD mortality rates and variations in mortality based on demographics and regions in the US.MethodsThe Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER) database was used to identify CVD and sepsis-related deaths from 1999 to 2022. Data on gender, race and ethnicity, age groups, region, and state classification were statistically analyzed to obtain crude and age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR). The Joinpoint Regression Program was used to determine trends in mortality within the study period.ResultsDuring the study period, there were a total of 1,842,641 deaths with both CVD and sepsis listed as a cause of death. Sepsis-associated CVD mortality decreased between 1999 and 2013, from AAMR of 65.7 in 1999 to 58.8 in 2013 (APC −1.06*%, 95% CI: −2.12% to −0.26%), then rose to 74.3 in 2022 (APC 3.23*%, 95% CI: 2.18%–5.40%). Throughout the study period, mortality rates were highest in men, NH Black adults, and elderly adults (65+ years old). The Northeast region, which had the highest mortality rate in the initial part of the study period, was the only region to see a decline in mortality, while the Northwest, Midwest, and Southern regions experienced significant increases in mortality rates.ConclusionSepsis-associated CVD mortality has increased in the US over the past decade, and both this general trend and the demographic disparities have worsened since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Effects of major trauma care organisation on mortality in a European level 1 trauma centre: A retrospective analysis of 2016-2023.

The centralisation of care for trauma patients in trauma centres, alongside the creation of inclusive trauma networks, has proven to reduce mortality. In Europe, such structured trauma programs and trauma networks are in development. To describe the aetiology and evolution of in-hospital mortality in a developing European level 1 trauma centre, to determine the early effect of trauma care reorganisation on mortality and to identify the areas for future investments in trauma care. This retrospective analysis included the calculation of the standardised mortality ratio (SMR), the time to in-hospital death and the cause of in-hospital death of all primary major trauma admissions to the Antwerp University Hospital from 2016 to 2023. A total of 1470 patients was included with a crude mortality of 16.4 %, a median Revised Injury Severity Classification II (RISC II) adjusted mortality of 1.47 %, and a SMR of 1.12. A limitation of care directive was registered for 18.1 % of the patients. The causes of in-hospital death were traumatic brain injury (TBI) in 60 %, haemorrhagic shock in 15 %, organ failure in 10 %, miscellaneous in 14 % and unknown in 1 %. Sixty percent died in the first 48 h of hospital admission (mainly due to TBI and haemorrhagic shock) and 27 % died after more than seven days (mainly due to organ failure and TBI). In 24 % of the deceased patients with severe TBI, a non-TBI related cause of death was found. Overall, the SMR showed a nonsignificant decreasing trend, with a significant decrease of the SMR in the highest risk group (RISCII > 75 %) and a nonsignificant increase in the lowest risk group (RISC II <15 %). The standardised mortality ratio declined over a period of 8 years, even though the SMR increased nonsignificantly in the lowest risk-adjusted mortality group. Future analysis of this subgroup could clarify whether this trend is due to an increase of limitation of care directives and if these deaths could have been prevented with improved trauma care. There might be opportunities to increase the survival of patients with severe TBI who have a non-TBI cause of death.

Trends and annual percentage changes in tuberculosis mortality estimated by Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analyses, Taiwan, 1978–2022

Tuberculosis (TB) was a public health problem in the past and remained a threat worldwide, including in Taiwan. We aimed to estimate annual percentage changes (APC) in TB mortality and the age-period-cohort effects on TB mortality. Taiwan TB mortality data from 1978 to 2022 was used to estimate the APC through the Joinpoint regression analysis and age-period-cohort models. Crude and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) reduced from 23.46 to 3.02 and 41.70 to 1.59 per 100,000 population in males, while 8.84 to 1.09 and 14.58 to 0.45, respectively, in females. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the crude rates still significantly declined in males from 2020 to 2022 but not in females. APC in ASMR significantly decreased in males and females (-7.17% and -7.64%), while after adjusted age-period-cohort effects, the estimated APC were -8.83% and -9.77%. Age-period-cohort effects were observed, with the highest peaks in the youngest (aged 0–4) and the period 1978–1982 in both sexes and peaks in the male cohort 1898–1902 and female cohort 1903– 1907. TB mortality in Taiwan has declined in all ages, sexes, periods, and cohorts. However, the COVID-19 pandemic stopped TB mortality from decreasing.

Efficacy of ceftazidime-avibactam with or without polymyxin for carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae infections after initial treatment with polymyxin.

Although polymyxins are a suboptimal option for difficult-to-treat resistant infections, they are still preferred as the first-line treatment, especially in low- and middle-income countries. This study assesses the efficacy of ceftazidime-avibactam (CAZ-AVI) following polymyxin B failure in patients with carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKP) infections. We retrospectively reviewed cases of infections caused by CRKP in adults who received CAZ-AVI as salvage therapy. Clinical features and outcomes were described, and a logistic regression model was used to assess the risk factors associated with in-hospital crude mortality. One hundred and six patients were included in this study. The median age was 56 years. The most common infectious sites were lung. The patients received CAZ-AVI as salvage therapy for a median duration of 9 days following initial treatment with polymyxin B (median, 12.5 days). Also, 91 (85.8%) patients received CAZ-AVI combination therapy, and 34 (32.1%) patients received CAZ-AVI in combination with polymyxin B. The rate of in-hospital crude mortality was 25.5% (27/106), with the highest rate observed in patients treated with regimens containing polymyxin B (41.2%; 14/34). Therapeutic response was observed in 81 (76.4%) patients, with microbiological eradication achieved in 77.1% (74/96) of cases. Multivariable analysis identified that the length of intensive care unit stays, the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score at CAZ-AVI withdrawal, and regimens containing polymyxin B were independently associated with in-hospital mortality, whereas the duration of CAZ-AVI treatment was independently associated with survival. CAZ-AVI salvage therapy demonstrated improved survival outcomes in patients who experienced failure with polymyxin B therapy.IMPORTANCEFor patients with carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKP) infections, published experience with salvage therapy is limited after the failure of polymyxin-based initial therapy. Here, we found that ceftazidime-avibactam salvage therapy for patients with CRKP infections offers benefit in mortality.

Rising mortality among people who inject drugs living with HIV in Scotland, UK: A 20-year retrospective cohort study.

Our aim was to examine mortality trends in the era of antiretroviral therapy, among people who inject drugs (PWID) who are living with HIV. The study objectives were to assess and quantify mortality among PWID diagnosed with HIV over time in Scotland, in the context of a recent outbreak of HIV and rise in drug-related mortality. This was a retrospective cohort study of those diagnosed with HIV in Scotland between January 2000 and February 2020, with acquisition related to injecting drug use, linked to mortality data. Factors associated with all-cause mortality were examined using Cox proportional hazards regression. Among 430 individuals with 3143 person-years (py) of follow-up, 88 (20.5%) died. Drug-related deaths accounted for 45.5% of all deaths, rising to 60% among those diagnosed in 2015-2020. The crude all-cause mortality was 28.00 per 1000 py overall and 37.62 per 1000 py within 5 years of diagnosis. Mortality risk was markedly higher among PWID diagnosed in 2015-2020 [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 3.53], relative to those diagnosed in 2000-2004. Among those diagnosed in 2015-2020 (as part of the HIV outbreak), the mortality risk was higher among those not on, compared with those on, opioid agonist therapy (aHR = 3.87). Mortality among PWID living with HIV in Scotland has risen substantially in the 21st century. Our findings highlight the important role of opioid-agonist therapy, alongside other prevention and treatment measures to address high levels of drug-related mortality for PWID living with HIV, including within HIV outbreaks in this population group.

Trends in Sickle Cell Disease Mortality: 1979-2020.

Although sickle cell disease (SCD)-related childhood mortality in the United States significantly improved in the 1990s, unclear is the trend in SCD-related mortality more recently given the continued disparities faced by this minoritized population. In this analysis, we aimed to (1) compare the overall and age-specific mortality rates from 1999 to 2009 vs 2010 to 2020 with a particular focus on the age of transition and (2) determine the most common causes of death for the US SCD population for 2010 to 2020. We analyzed publicly available data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention WONDER database, a compilation of national-level mortality statistics from 1979 to 2020 derived from death certificates compiled by the National Center for Health Statistics. We searched by all individuals of all ethnicities, sexes, and ages using the underlying cause of death. The crude mortality rate for individuals with SCD for 2010 to 2020 was 1.6 per 1 000 000 individuals, which was significantly lower than the period 1999 to 2009 (crude rate 1.7 per 1 000 000, P < .0001). In addition, the mean age at mortality of those with SCD was older in 2010 to 2020 (43 years) versus 1999 to 2009 (39 years). However, there remains a significant increase in mortality rate in the 20 to 24 year age group versus 15 to 19 years (1.7 per 1 000 000 versus 0.7 per 1 000 000, P < .0001), corresponding with the age of transition from pediatric to adult centers. In addition, 39% of underlying causes of death were not caused by SCD, but rather primarily chronic conditions, including cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, malignancy, and renal disease. The study has several limitations mostly because of the imperfections of administrative data sources, including inaccuracies in diagnoses codes, risking over or undercounting. Although the US SCD-related mortality rate continues to decrease, the age of transition to adult care is a particularly vulnerable time in the lives of this marginalized group. Innovative and expanded approaches to care are greatly needed.

Abstract 4124966: Trends and Gender Differences in Stroke Mortality Rates Among Patients with Atrial Fibrillation/Flutter from 1999 to 2020

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AFib) and atrial flutter (AFL) are common arrhythmias associated with increased stroke risk. This study examines stroke mortality trends and gender differences among AFib/AFL patients in the United States over a 22-year period. Research Question: Do stroke mortality rates among patients with AFib/AFL show significant trends and gender differences from 1999 to 2020? Aims: The primary aim is to analyze trends in crude and age-adjusted stroke mortality rates and determine gender-specific differences over the 22-year period. Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis using CDC multiple causes of death files from 1999 to 2020. Stroke deaths (ICD-10 codes I60-I69) with AFib/AFL (ICD-10 code I48) as contributory factors were identified. Crude and age-adjusted mortality rates were calculated annually. Joinpoint regression calculated annual percentage change (APC) and assessed trend significance (p &lt; 0.05). Poisson regression was used for rate comparisons. Gender-specific trends highlighted differences between males and females. Results: The analysis included 204,127 stroke deaths with AFib/AFL. Both crude and age-adjusted mortality rates increased. The crude mortality rate rose from 3.3 per 100,000 in 1999 to 4.9 per 100,000 in 2020, APC 1.8% (p &lt; 0.01). The age-adjusted rate increased from 3.4 to 4.0 per 100,000, APC 1.2% (p &lt; 0.01). Females had higher crude mortality rates, increasing from 4.3 to 5.5 per 100,000, APC 1.3% (p &lt; 0.01), while males rose from 2.3 to 4.2 per 100,000, APC 2.2% (p &lt; 0.01). Age-adjusted rates: females increased from 3.4 to 3.9 per 100,000, APC 0.8% (p &lt; 0.01), and males from 3.3 to 4.2 per 100,000, APC 1.6% (p &lt; 0.01). Poisson regression indicated these differences were significant (p &lt; 0.05). Age adjustment narrowed gender disparity. Conclusion: Increasing stroke mortality rates among AFib/AFL patients highlight a growing public health concern in the United States. Females have higher crude stroke mortality rates than males, but age adjustment reveals a more balanced trend. More work is needed to understand influencing factors, including anticoagulation rates, healthcare access, and AFib/AFL management strategies.

Abstract 4138715: Disparities in Aortic Dissection and Aortic Aneurysm-Related Mortality in The United States From 1999-2020

Background: Aortic dissection (AD) and aneurysm (AA) have a low incidence but are severe health risks associated with high mortality rates, and based on location, can have a mortality rate of over 80%. We aim to highlight disparities in mortality based on gender, race, age and demographic background. Methods: This retrospective study analyzed death certificate data for AD and AA (ICD-10 code I71) from 1999 to 2020 using the CDC WONDER database. Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) per 100,000 were assessed for adults aged 25 and older by gender, race, year, state, and place of death, while crude mortality rates (CMR) per 100,000 were used for age groups. Joinpoint regression calculated the annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals. Results: From 1999 to 2020, AD and AA resulted in 400,748 deaths in the US. During this period, AAMR for men (12.19) was approximately double that for women (5.77). Overall, the AAMR decreased from 12.40 to 6.71 (AAPC: -2.93; 95% CI: -3.06 to -2.79; p-value&lt;0.000001). NH whites had the highest AAMR at 8.93, while Hispanic and Latino populations had the lowest at 4.20. Approximately 52.3% of the deaths occurred in inpatient medical facilities, whereas 18.4% occurred at home. Vermont, West Virginia, and Wyoming had the highest AAMRs, at 11.60, 11.47, and 11.30, respectively. Among racial groups, both males and females experienced a decrease in AAMR except for NH black men. For this group, there was an increase in AAMR from 9.42 in 2012 to 10.43 in 2020 (APC:1.03; 95% CI: 0.15 to 2.22; p-value:0.028). The CMR for young adults rose significantly from 0.62 in 2014 to 0.73 in 2020 (APC:2.55; 95% CI 1.11 to 6.74; p-value:0.02), and for middle-aged adults from 3.09 in 2010 to 3.61 in 2020 (APC: 1.57; 95% CI 1.04 to 2.25; p-value&lt;0.000001). Conversely, a steep decline in CMR was observed for older adults from 27.93 in 2014 to 25.4 in 2020 (APC:-1.34; 95% CI -1.9 to -0.69; p-value:0.0004). Conclusion: Although AD and AA mortality rates have declined over time, significant disparities persist for NH Black men and young/middle-aged adults. This highlights the need for early screening programs and equitable healthcare provision for all populations.

Abstract 4138353: Disparities in coronary artery disease-related mortality among patients with obesity in the United States from 1999-2020

Introduction: Coronary artery disease (CAD) is the third leading cause of death in the US for adults aged &gt;35 years. Almost half of the adult US population has obesity, which predisposes to atherosclerosis and may lead to poor prognosis in CAD. We aim to identify CAD-related mortality trends in patients with obesity in the US stratified by age, sex, race, and geographical location. Methods: The CDC-WONDER database was used to extract death certificate data for adults aged ≥25 years. Crude mortality rates (CMR) and age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) per 100,000 persons were calculated, and temporal trends were delineated by calculating annual percent change (APC) and the average APC (AAPC) in the rates using JoinPoint regression analysis. Results: From 1999 to 2020, a total of 182,436 CAD-related deaths occurred in individuals with obesity. The AAMR increased consistently from 1999 to 2018 (APC: 4.48) and surged thereafter till 2020 (APC: 13.91). The AAMR for males (4.91) was almost double that of females (2.76). Non-Hispanic (NH) American Indians or Alaska Natives displayed the highest AAMR (5.37) while NH Asians or Pacific Islanders displayed the lowest (0.88). NH Blacks or African Americans displayed an AAMR of 5.06, followed by NH Whites (3.88) and Hispanics or Latinos (2.6). AAMRs also varied substantially by region (Midwest: 4.09; West: 4; Northeast: 3.67; South: 3.53). States with the highest AAMRs were Vermont and Oklahoma. Non-metropolitan regions exhibited a higher AAMR (4.42) than metropolitan regions (3.64). The adults aged 65-74 years exhibited the greatest CMR (8.99). Conclusion: We observed increasing trends in CAD-related deaths in adults with obesity throughout the study period. The highest mortality was exhibited by males and NH American Indians or Alaska Natives, residents of the Midwest and non-metropolitan areas, and individuals aged 65-74 years. Better healthcare practices and lifestyle modifications should be promoted in these high-risk populations to reduce the CAD-related mortality rates in adults with obesity.

Abstract 4145840: Hypertensive Cardiorenal Disease with Cardiorenal Failure vs. Hypertensive Renal Disease with Renal Failure: Racial Mortality Trends from 1999 to 2020 in the United States

Introduction: High levels of blood pressure (BP) are responsible for 7.6 million deaths each year worldwide, more than any other risk factor. The diagnosis of hypertension is associated with a significant increase in the risk of kidney or cardiovascular events, with no prior history of these events. Our study aims to analyze trends in hypertensive heart disease and hypertensive heart and kidney disease-related mortality in the United States, focusing on different races. Method: We retrieved death certificate data from the CDC-WONDER database for adults aged ≥25 years. Crude mortality rates (CMRs) and age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) per 100,000 persons were calculated. Temporal trends were examined using the average annual percent change (AAPC) determined by joinpoint regression. Result: From 1999 to 2020, a total of 100,705 people died from hypertensive heart and renal disease in the USA. The overall AAMR of 1.4 per 100,000 displayed a trend during this period (AAPC: 4.8, 95% CI [3.3–6.2]). Total deaths from hypertensive heart disease and renal disease associated with heart failure were 5,274, showing an increasing trend from 1999 to 2020. The AAMR for hypertensive heart and renal disease with heart failure was 0.1 (AAPC: 5.2, 95% CI [3.8–6.7]). Black or African Americans have the highest AAMR (0.1, 95% CI [0.1–0.1]). Total deaths from hypertensive heart disease and renal disease associated with renal failure were 34,519, showing an increasing trend from 1999 to 2020. The AAMR for hypertensive heart and renal disease with renal failure was 0.4 (AAPC: 3.9, 95% CI [2.6–5.1]). Black or African American has the highest AAMR (1.6, 95% CI [1.5–1.6]), followed by American Indian or Alaska Native (0.5, 95% CI [0.4–0.5]), Asians and Pacific Islanders (0.4, 95% CI [0.4–0.4]), and White (0.4, 95% CI [0.3–0.4]). Conclusion: African Americans and other identified high-risk races should get targeted therapies to reduce the burden of hypertensive-related morbidity and mortality; those with renal impairment should receive special attention. The goals of these interventions ought to be to increase access to healthcare, raise public knowledge of hypertension, and support lifestyle changes.

Abstract 4133161: Variation in Prevalence, Treatment, and Outcomes in Heart Failure with Improved Ejection Fraction by Race and Ethnicity

Background: Racial and ethnic disparities exist in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), but little is known about how race and ethnicity relate to patients with HF with improved EF (HFimpEF). Research Question: Do the epidemiology, treatment, and outcomes vary by race and ethnicity in patients with HFimpEF? Aim: To describe the relationship between race and ethnicity and HFimpEF within a large, integrated health care delivery system. Methods: We identified adults aged ≥18 years with incident HFrEF (LVEF≤40%) from 2013-2018 within Kaiser Permanente Northern California. HFimpEF was defined as LVEF&gt;40% within 12 months after incident HFrEF. Self-reported race and ethnicity were classified as non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, Asian American/Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander (AANHPI), Hispanic, and other. Incidence rates of worsening HF (WHF) events (i.e., HF hospitalization, ED visit, or urgent outpatient WHF visits) or all-cause death were compared across patients with HFimpEF and persistent HFrEF using Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for age, sex, and LVEF at incident HFrEF, stratified by race and ethnicity. Results: Among 12,639 adults with incident HFrEF, 7,562 (59.8%) were White, 1,481 (11.7%) were AANHPI, 1,385 (11.0%) were Black, and 1,537 (12.2%) identified as Hispanic. Rates of HFimpEF following incident HFrEF was lowest among Black patients (26%), but similar among other race and ethnicities (36%, 34%, 30%, and 30% for AANHPI, White, Hispanic, and other, respectively, chi-squared p&lt;0.01). Medication use was similar across groups at time of HFimpEF, but generally declined thereafter (Panel A) . Among patients with HFimpEF, Black and Hispanic patients had significantly higher crude rates of WHF or death compared to White patients (34 and 30 compared to 23 per 100 person-years, p&lt;0.01 for each). Despite these differences in absolute rates, relative associations between HFimpEF (vs. persistent HFrEF) and WHF or death remained similar across all race and ethnicities (AANHPI: aHR=0.52 [95%CI 0.42-0.65], Black: aHR=0.70 [95%CI 0.56-0.87], Hispanic: aHR=0.60 [95%CI 0.49-0.73], White: aHR=0.53 [95%CI 0.48-0.58], p interaction =0.13) (Panel B) . Conclusions: HFimpEF is common within 12 months after incident HFrEF, and HF medication adherence declines in the years following. HFimpEF is associated with improved clinical outcomes across race and ethnicity, but occurs less frequently in Black patients despite similar HF medical therapy use.

Abstract 4122008: Bayesian modeling to forecast mortality due to Ischemic Heart Disease, Stroke, and Peripheral Artery Disease in Brazil until 2040

Introduction: Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, specifically ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, and peripheral artery disease (PAD) together are among the leading causes of cardiovascular mortality in Brazil. As the obesity, hypertension, and diabetes rates in the Brazil continue to increase, projecting mortality rates related to these conditions are important for guiding health policy. Hypothesis: We hypothesized that there are differences in the future trends of IHD, stroke and PAD in Brazil. Aims: We sought to forecast the trends in IHD, stroke, and PAD in Brazil until 2040 to fill in this important knowledge gap and inform public health policy development. Methods: We collected the annual death counts for IHD, stroke, and PAD and the mid-year population estimates in 5-year age brackets (40 – 79 years) between 1990 and 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease. We calculated the annual crude and age-standardized mortality rates (per 100 000 residents) for IHD, stroke and PAD between 1990 and 2019. Using this observed data, we estimated the projected mortality rates for these conditions till 2040 using Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models. Results: Brazil`s population (aged 40-79 years) will increase by 237.5% between 1990 and 2040. Nationally, compared to 2019, the age standardized IHD mortality is projected to reduce by 31.66 % [2019: 131.13, 2040:89.6 (IQR: 65.83, 113.37)] and stroke rates are estimated to reduce by 16.75% [2019: 91.09, 2040: 75.83 (IQR: 51.68, 99.98)]. However, PAD rates are projected to increase by 1.2% in the same period [2019: 1.58, 2040: 1.66 (IQR: 1.24, 2.07)]. The age standardized IHD and stroke mortality rates will reduce in males and females. However, the age standardized PAD rates will increase in females [2019: 1.33, 2040: 1.48 (IQR: 1.06, 1.89), 11.28% difference] and remain reasonably constant among males. Conclusion: In Brazil, the age standardized rates for IHD and stroke mortality are projected to decline till 2040. However, PAD related mortality is likely to be an important issue among females. Our findings highlight the need for early and targeted interventions to address these potential cardiovascular health disparities.

Abstract 4147639: Trends in Atherosclerosis-related mortality in the United States from 1999 to 2020; A Retrospective Analysis

Background and Aims: Atherosclerotic diseases, including but not limited to myocardial infarction and stroke, are the leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Here we aim to identify and quantify temporal trends of atherosclerotic disease mortality among adults in the United States from 1999 to 2020, and pinpoint racial, local, regional, age and gender-wise variations in this trend. Methods: Data was sourced from the CDC WONDER database, with atherosclerosis identification based on ICD-10 Codes I70. We determined the crude death rates and age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) per 100,000 individuals from 1999-2020. JointPoint regression was employed to examine the changes in AAMR across the years through annual percent change (APC) and the average annual percent change (AAPC). Results: The AAMR for atherosclerosis shows a uniformly declining trend from 1999 to 2020 with AAPC= -7.25; 95% CI -6.34 to -8.14. The analysis revealed significant disparities in mortality rates among different demographic groups. Mortality was significantly higher among female patients (AAPC=-7.09%; 95% CI -6.48 to -8.58), American Indian patients (AAPC=-7.88%; 95% CI -.6.58 to -9.11), and rural populations (AAPC=-7.62%; 95% CI -6.53 to -8.70). Most deaths occurred in the southern region of the US (AAPC: -7.62%; 95% CI -7.45 to -9.19). A notable exception to this was California which accounted for the highest mortality in the US. Conclusion: Our nationwide analysis showed an overall decreasing mortality trend due to atherosclerosis among adults in the US. However, the higher mortality rate among females, American Indians, and rural populations is concerning and requires further investigation that can explain and expand on the findings of our study and explain this variation in mortality rates.

Abstract 4117310: Alcohol-Related Cardiomyopathy - Exploration of Recent Mortality Trends in the United States

Introduction: Data is accumulating regarding the contemporary trends of mortality rates in patients with alcohol-related cardiomyopathy across the United States. Hypothesis: We hypothesized that with increased awareness about the adverse effects of alcohol on the cardiovascular system and the advancement of echocardiography in the early diagnosis of alcoholic cardiomyopathy, mortality rates may show a downward trend. Methods: This is a retrospective observational study that retrieved death certificates from the CDC WONDER (Center for Disease Control and Prevention’s Wide-ranging ONline Data for Epidemiological Research) database from 2001-2020. The mortality rate of alcohol-related cardiomyopathy using ICD code I42.6 (Alcoholic cardiomyopathy) was studied from 2001-2020. This study duration was further subdivided into five-year periods. We calculated the crude mortality rate and age-adjusted mortality rate per 100,000 for four U.S census regions (CR-1 Northeast, CR-2 Midwest, CR-3 South, CR-4 West). Results: The overall age-adjusted mortality rate remained at 0.1/100,000 deaths in four U.S census regions until 2015; however, in the last five years of the study period, AAMR(age-related mortality rate) increased from 0.1 to 0.2/100,000 deaths. Conclusions: The mortality trends associated with alcohol-related cardiomyopathy have not changed significantly over the past two decades. This can be explained by the larger number of people developing alcoholic cardiomyopathy due to the increase in global alcohol use in addition to the fact that more diagnosed patients are receiving earlier treatment with goal-directed medical therapy for cardiomyopathy. Limitations of this study include intrinsic weakness of the WONDER dataset (changes with ICD-9 to ICD-10 codes, and potentially miscoding) which needs further research. Discussion: This suggests that while mortality rates associated with alcohol-related cardiomyopathy remained relatively steady for most of the study period, there was a concerning uptick in the latter years. This could prompt further investigation into potential factors contributing to this increase, despite advancements in awareness and diagnostic techniques.

Global burden and cross-country inequalities in diseases associated with high body mass index from 1990 to 2019: Result from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

High body mass index (BMI) has gradually become an increased risk factor for the global burden of diseases (GBD). As the disease burden and the number of elders globally increase, it is crucial for policymakers to realise the associations between high BMI and disease burden worldwide in a timely manner and to develop effective interventions for different countries and ages. We used the GBD 2019 database to analyse the deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in the disease burden associated with high BMI and indicated the health inequality at the global, regional, and national levels. We applied the slope index of inequality and concentration index, two standard metrics of absolute and relative gradient inequality recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO), to quantify the distributive inequalities in the burden of diseases associated with high BMI. These rates were reported per 100 000 population as crude incidence rates, death rates, and DALYs rates. All the estimates were generated with a 95% uncertainty interval (UIs). Globally, we revealed that an estimated age-standardised mortality rate associated with high BMI is 6.26 million (95% UIs = 3.99, 8.91). The age-standardised DALYs rate is 19.32 million (95% UIs = 12.77, 26.40), and the global population attributable fraction was 9% (95% UIs = 5, 12) in 2019. The largest number of high-BMI-related deaths in women mainly concentrated in the age group of 65-79 years, whereas the largest number in men was in the age group of 60-69 years. The age-standardised DALYs rate of diseases associated with high BMI was larger in the high-middle and middle socio-demographic index (SDI) (population attributable fraction (PAF) = 11 and PAF = 9) regions than those with high SDI (PAF = 1) and low SDI (PAF = 5) regions. In this study, our results showed that the disease burden of global deaths and DALYs associated with high BMI has substantially increased between 1990-2019. Furthermore, we demonstrated that countries with higher SDI development levels shoulders higher burden of diseases associated with high BMI. Future policies to prevent and reduce the burden should be developed and implemented based on country-specific development status.

High immunity and low mortality after Omicron and mass event in Cameroon despite low vaccination.

Little is known about the evolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) immunity in African communities. We evaluated changes in anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, mortality and vaccination status in Cameroon between August 2021 and September 2022 to begin describing the evolution of the pandemic in Africa. The study was conducted across Cameroon's 10 regional capitals, between 2021 and 2022 as the country hosted a mass gathering. We conducted a cross-sectional population-based survey in 2022, including SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence testing and retrospective mortality estimation using two-stage cluster sampling. We estimated and compared seroprevalence and crude mortality rates (CMR) to a survey conducted in 2021 using the same methodology. We performed serologic testing on 8400 individuals and collected mortality data from 22 314 individuals. Approximately 5% in each survey reported SARS-CoV-2-vaccination. Rapid diagnostic test-based seroprevalence increased from 11.2% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 10-12.5) to 59.8% (95% CI: 58.3-61.2) between 2021 and 2022, despite no increase in the proportion vaccinated. The CMR decreased from 0.17 to 0.06 deaths per 10 000 persons per day between 2021 and 2022. In 2022, no deaths were reportedly attributable to COVID-19 as compared to 17 deaths in 2021. Over a 12-month period encompassing two waves of omicron variant SARS-CoV-2 and a mass gathering, SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity in Cameroon approached 60%, and deaths declined despite low vaccination coverage. This study challenges the assumption that high immunisation coverage is the sole determinant of epidemic control in the African context and encourages policymakers to increasingly rely on local research when designing response strategies for more effective outbreak management.