Crude Case Fatality Ratio Research Articles

An in-depth statistical analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic’s initial spread in the WHO African region

During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, sub-Saharan African countries experienced comparatively lower rates of SARS-CoV-2 infections and related deaths than in other parts of the world, the reasons...

A Note on Estimating the Case Fatality Ratio for Novel Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19)

Background: In this paper, an attempt has been made to estimate the Case Fatality Ratio (CFR) for coronavirus disease of India and a few selected countries. And also, it highlighted the pros and cons of obtaining crude and adjusted CFR of COVID-19 pandemic. Material and Methods: Data extracted from the WHO situation report and the University of Oxford website have been used for this analysis. The CFR and its 95% confidence interval were computed, trend and bar plot was used for graphical representation. Results: The worldwide crude CFR stands 6.73% (95% CI 6.69 to 6.76) based on 21, 83, 877 confirmed and 1,46,872 death cases(as on 17th April, 2020). Belgium was the highest CFR at 13.95% as compared to others. However, India’s CFR was found to be around 3.26% (as on 17th April, 2020). Conclusion: In conclusion, the estimation and interpretation of CFR are critical in response to ongoing COVID-19. The initial CFR estimates are subject to change, still, it is useful for healthcare planning over the coming months. Moreover, the precise and robust estimates of CFR will be available only at the end of the epidemic.

A global analysis of replacement of genetic variants of SARS-CoV-2 in association with containment capacity and changes in disease severity

ObjectivesTo examine severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant replacement in association with containment capacity and changes in case fatality at country level. MethodsAltogether, 69 571 full SARS-CoV-2 genomes collected globally within the first 6 months of the pandemic were examined. The correlation between variant replacement and containment capacity was examined by logistic regression models using the WHO International Health Regulation (IHR) score, the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) and the vulnerability index INFORM as proxies, while correlation with changes in monthly crude case fatality ratios was examined by a mixed effect model. ResultsAt the global level, variant lineage G∗, characterized by the S-D614G mutation, replaced the older lineages L and S in March 2020. European countries—including Finland, France and Italy—were the first to reach a 50% increment of G∗, whereas only Singapore and South Korea had non-G∗ persisting throughout the first 6 months. Countries with higher IHR scores (β-coefficient –0.001, 95%CI –0.016, –0.001; p 0.034) and higher stringency indexes (OxCGRT) (β-coefficient –0.011, 95%CI –0.020, –0.001; p 0.035) were associated with lower levels of G∗ replacement, whereas higher vulnerability indexes (INFORM) (β-coefficient 0.049, 95%CI 0.001, 0.097; p 0.044) were associated with higher replacement levels. Crude case fatality ratio showed a positive correlation with G∗ replacement (β-coefficient: 0.034, 95%CI 0.011, 0.058; p 0.004), even after adjusting for testing capacity and other country-specific characteristics. ConclusionsSARS-CoV-2 variant lineage G∗ (S-D614G) replaced older lineages more efficiently in countries with lower containment capacity, and its possible association with increased disease severity deserves further investigation.

Age-stratified analysis of SARS-CoV-2 infection and case fatality rate in China, Italy, and South Korea.

We aimed to compare the characteristics of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in China, Italy, and South Korea. Detailed national epidemiological information of COVID-19 was retracted from the latest statistics reports from China, Italy, and South Korea. Population-based analysis of the age distribution among confirmed cases was conducted and their crude case fatality ratio in each c RESULTS: The age distributions among COVID-19 cases were relatively similar between China and Italy with primarily elderly populations infected, which were considerably different from that in South Korea with primarily younger individuals infected. Most deaths occurred among elderly individuals who were older than 60 years in both Italy (98.0%) and South Korea (87.9%), consistent with the previous data from China (81.0%). Most deaths occurred among elderly individuals who were over 60 in China, Italy, and South Korea. South Korea's data suggest that younger individuals might be more susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection, which might be fully under detected in China and Italy.

Epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 cases and estimates of the reproductive numbers 1 month into the epidemic, Italy, 28 January to 31 March 2020.

BackgroundOn 20 February 2020, a locally acquired coronavirus disease (COVID-19) case was detected in Lombardy, Italy. This was the first signal of ongoing transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the country. The number of cases in Italy increased rapidly and the country became the first in Europe to experience a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak.AimOur aim was to describe the epidemiology and transmission dynamics of the first COVID-19 cases in Italy amid ongoing control measures.MethodsWe analysed all RT-PCR-confirmed COVID-19 cases reported to the national integrated surveillance system until 31 March 2020. We provide a descriptive epidemiological summary and estimate the basic and net reproductive numbers by region.ResultsOf the 98,716 cases of COVID-19 analysed, 9,512 were healthcare workers. Of the 10,943 reported COVID-19-associated deaths (crude case fatality ratio: 11.1%) 49.5% occurred in cases older than 80 years. Male sex and age were independent risk factors for COVID-19 death. Estimates of R0 varied between 2.50 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.18–2.83) in Tuscany and 3.00 (95% CI: 2.68–3.33) in Lazio. The net reproduction number Rt in northern regions started decreasing immediately after the first detection.ConclusionThe COVID-19 outbreak in Italy showed a clustering onset similar to the one in Wuhan, China. R0 at 2.96 in Lombardy combined with delayed detection explains the high case load and rapid geographical spread. Overall, Rt in Italian regions showed early signs of decrease, with large diversity in incidence, supporting the importance of combined non-pharmacological control measures.

Complications and mortality of typhoid fever: A global systematic review and meta-analysis

Updated estimates of the prevalence of complications and case fatality ratio (CFR) among typhoid fever patients are needed to understand disease burden. Articles published in PubMed and Web of Science from 1 January 1980 through 29 January 2020 were systematically reviewed for hospital or community-based non-surgical studies that used cultures of normally sterile sites, and hospital surgical studies of typhoid intestinal perforation (TIP) with intra- or post-operative findings suggestive of typhoid. Prevalence of 21 pre-selected recognized complications of typhoid fever, crude and median (interquartile range) CFR, and pooled CFR estimates using a random effects meta-analysis were calculated. Of 113 study sites, 106 (93.8%) were located in Asia and Africa, and 84 (74.3%) were non-surgical. Among non-surgical studies, 70 (83.3%) were hospital-based. Of 10,355 confirmed typhoid patients, 2,719 (26.3%) had complications. The pooled CFR estimate among non-surgical patients was 0.9% for the Asia region and 5.4% for the Africa region. Delay in care was significantly correlated with increased CFR in Asia (r = 0.84; p<0.01). Among surgical studies, the median CFR of TIP was 15.5% (6.7-24.1%) per study. Our findings identify considerable typhoid-associated illness and death that could be averted with prevention measures, including typhoid conjugate vaccine introduction.

Database of epidemic trends and control measures during the first wave of COVID-19 in mainland China

ObjectivesIn this data collation study, we aimed to provide a comprehensive database describing the epidemic trends and responses during the first wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) throughout the main provinces in China. MethodsFrom mid-January to March 2020, we extracted publicly available data regarding the spread and control of COVID-19 from 31 provincial health authorities and major media outlets in mainland China. Based on these data, we conducted descriptive analyses of the epidemic in the six most-affected provinces. ResultsSchool closures, travel restrictions, community-level lockdown, and contact tracing were introduced concurrently around late January but subsequent epidemic trends differed among provinces. Compared with Hubei, the other five most-affected provinces reported a lower crude case fatality ratio and proportion of critical and severe hospitalised cases. From March 2020, as the local transmission of COVID-19 declined, switching the focus of measures to the testing and quarantine of inbound travellers may have helped to sustain the control of the epidemic. ConclusionsAggregated indicators of case notifications and severity distributions are essential for monitoring an epidemic. A publicly available database containing these indicators and information regarding control measures is a useful resource for further research and policy planning in response to the COVID-19 epidemic.

The epidemiological burden and overall distribution of chronic comorbidities in coronavirus disease-2019 among202,005 infected patients: evidence from a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PurposeThe main purpose of this study was to examine the overall distribution of chronic comorbidities in coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) infected populations and the risk of the underlying burden of disease in terms of the case fatality ratio (CFR).MethodsWe carried out a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies on COVID-19 patients published before 10th April 2020. Twenty-three studies containing data for 202,005 COVID-19 patients were identified and included in our study. Pooled effects of chronic comorbid conditions and CFR with 95% confidence intervals were calculated using random-effects models.ResultsA median age of COVID-19 patients was 56.4 years and 55% of the patients were male. The most prevalent chronic comorbid conditions were: any type of chronic comorbidity (37%; 95% CI 32–41%), hypertension (22%; 95% CI 17–27%), diabetes (14%; 95% CI 12–17%), respiratory diseases (5%; 95% CI 3–6%), cardiovascular diseases (13%; 95% CI 10–16%) and other chronic diseases (e.g., cancer) (8%; 95% CI 6–10%). Furthermore, 37% of COVID-19 patients had at least one chronic comorbid condition, 28% of patients had two conditions, and 19% of patients had three or more chronic conditions. The overall pooled CFR was 7% (95% CI 6–7%). The crude CFRs increased significantly with increasing number of chronic comorbid conditions, ranging from 6% for at least one chronic comorbid condition to 13% for 2 or 3 chronic comorbid conditions, 12% for 4 chronic comorbid conditions, 14% for 5 chronic comorbid conditions, and 21% for 6 or more chronic comorbid conditions. Furthermore, the overall CFRs also significantly increased with higher levels of reported clinical symptoms, ranging from 14% for at least four symptoms, to 15% for 5 or 6 symptoms, and 21% for 7 or more symptoms.ConclusionsThe chronic comorbid conditions were identified as dominating risk factors, which should be considered in an emergency disease management and treatment choices. There is urgent need to further enhance systematic and real-time sharing of epidemiologic data, clinical results, and experience to inform the global response to COVID-19.

Spatial variability in the risk of death from COVID-19 in Italy.

OBJECTIVES: Italy has been badly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and has one of the highest death tolls. We analyzed the severity of COVID-19 across all 20 Italian regions.METHOD: We manually retrieved the daily cumulative numbers of laboratory-confirmed cases and deaths attributed to COVID-19 in each region, and estimated the crude case fatality ratio and time delay-adjusted case fatality ratio (aCFR). We then assessed the association between aCFR and sociodemographic, health care and transmission factors using multivariate regression analysis.RESULTS: The overall aCFR in Italy was estimated at 17.4%. Lombardia exhibited the highest aCFR (24.7%), followed by Marche (19.3%), Emilia Romagna (17.7%) and Liguria (17.6%). Our aCFR estimate was greater than 10% for 12 regions. Our aCFR estimates were statistically associated with population density and cumulative morbidity rate in a multivariate analysis.CONCLUSION: Our aCFR estimates for Italy as a whole and for seven out of the 20 regions exceeded those reported for the most badly affected region in China. These findings highlight the importance of social distancing to suppress transmission to avoid overwhelming the health care system and reduce the risk of death.

Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis

SummaryBackgroundIn the face of rapidly changing data, a range of case fatality ratio estimates for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been produced that differ substantially in magnitude. We aimed to provide robust estimates, accounting for censoring and ascertainment biases.MethodsWe collected individual-case data for patients who died from COVID-19 in Hubei, mainland China (reported by national and provincial health commissions to Feb 8, 2020), and for cases outside of mainland China (from government or ministry of health websites and media reports for 37 countries, as well as Hong Kong and Macau, until Feb 25, 2020). These individual-case data were used to estimate the time between onset of symptoms and outcome (death or discharge from hospital). We next obtained age-stratified estimates of the case fatality ratio by relating the aggregate distribution of cases to the observed cumulative deaths in China, assuming a constant attack rate by age and adjusting for demography and age-based and location-based under-ascertainment. We also estimated the case fatality ratio from individual line-list data on 1334 cases identified outside of mainland China. Using data on the prevalence of PCR-confirmed cases in international residents repatriated from China, we obtained age-stratified estimates of the infection fatality ratio. Furthermore, data on age-stratified severity in a subset of 3665 cases from China were used to estimate the proportion of infected individuals who are likely to require hospitalisation.FindingsUsing data on 24 deaths that occurred in mainland China and 165 recoveries outside of China, we estimated the mean duration from onset of symptoms to death to be 17·8 days (95% credible interval [CrI] 16·9–19·2) and to hospital discharge to be 24·7 days (22·9–28·1). In all laboratory confirmed and clinically diagnosed cases from mainland China (n=70 117), we estimated a crude case fatality ratio (adjusted for censoring) of 3·67% (95% CrI 3·56–3·80). However, after further adjusting for demography and under-ascertainment, we obtained a best estimate of the case fatality ratio in China of 1·38% (1·23–1·53), with substantially higher ratios in older age groups (0·32% [0·27–0·38] in those aged <60 years vs 6·4% [5·7–7·2] in those aged ≥60 years), up to 13·4% (11·2–15·9) in those aged 80 years or older. Estimates of case fatality ratio from international cases stratified by age were consistent with those from China (parametric estimate 1·4% [0·4–3·5] in those aged <60 years [n=360] and 4·5% [1·8–11·1] in those aged ≥60 years [n=151]). Our estimated overall infection fatality ratio for China was 0·66% (0·39–1·33), with an increasing profile with age. Similarly, estimates of the proportion of infected individuals likely to be hospitalised increased with age up to a maximum of 18·4% (11·0–37·6) in those aged 80 years or older.InterpretationThese early estimates give an indication of the fatality ratio across the spectrum of COVID-19 disease and show a strong age gradient in risk of death.FundingUK Medical Research Council.

Describing the epidemic trends of COVID-19 in the area covered by Agency for Health Protection of the Metropolitan Area of Milan.

to describe the epidemic trends of COVID-19 over time and by area in the territory covered by Milan's Agency for Health Protection (ATS-MI) from February to May 2020. descriptive study of COVID-19 cases. a new information system was developed to record COVID-19 cases with positive nasopharyngeal swab. Patients resident in the area covered by ATS-MI with symptom onset between February and May 2020 were selected. Different epidemic periods were considered based on the timeline of the various regional and national containment measures. case fatality ratios, incidence rates, and reproduction number by epidemic period and sub-area of ATS-MI. a total of 27,017 swab-positive COVID-19 cases were included. Mean age was 65 years and males were 45%. Incidence in the ATS-MI area was 776 per 100,000 population. The number of deaths was 4,660, the crude case fatality ratio was 17.3%, higher in males (21.2%) than in females (14.0%). The estimated reproduction number registered its peak (3.0) in the early stages of the epidemic and subsequently decreased. Territorial differences were observed in the epidemic spread, with a higher incidence in the Lodi area. estimated incidence and case fatality ratios were higher than national estimates for Italy. Each ATS-MI area had different epidemic spread patterns.

Mass gathering events and undetected transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in vulnerable populations leading to an outbreak with high case fatality ratio in the district of Tirschenreuth, Germany.

In early March 2020, a COVID-19-outbreak occurred in the district of Tirschenreuth, Germany. The outbreak was characterised by a rapid increase in case numbers and a comparatively high crude case fatality ratio (CFR; 11%). Until the beginning of May 2020, 1122 cases were reported in the district. To investigate the outbreak, we analysed surveillance and other data available at the district health department, including data on cases living in care facilities and public health measures applied. Furthermore, we compared the number of tests performed in Tirschenreuth and in Germany as a whole. We interviewed the first 110 cases in order to investigate potential exposures at the beginning of the outbreak. We found that returning ski-travellers from Austria and Italy and early undetected community transmission likely initiated the outbreak which was then accelerated by Bavarian beer festivities. Testing of mainly acute cases in the district of Tirschenreuth resulted in a higher rate of positive tests compared to the whole of Germany. Despite adjustment for age, the CFR continued to exceed the German mean which was due to spread to vulnerable populations. Strict public health measures likely contributed to control the outbreak by mid-April 2020.

Epidemiological characteristics of influenza A(H1N1) 2009 pandemic in the Western Pacific Region

The first laboratory-confirmed cases of infection with pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 in the Western Pacific Region were reported on 28 April 2009. By 11 June 2009, the day the pandemic was declared by the World Health Organization, nine Western Pacific Region countries and areas had reported laboratory confirmed pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 cases. From April 2009 to July 2010, more than 250000 cases and 1800 deaths from laboratory-confirmed pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 were reported from 34 countries and areas in the Region. By age group region-wide, 8.6%, 41.9%, 48.3%, and 1.2% of cases were in the <5years, 5-14 years, 15-64 years, and 65+ years age groups, respectively; the overall crude case fatality ratio in the Western Pacific Region was 0.5%. The pandemic demonstrated that region-wide disease reporting was possible. Countries and areas of the Western Pacific Region should take this opportunity to strengthen the systems established during the pandemic to develop routine disease reporting.

Incidence and outcome of cerebrovascular disease in Perth, Western Australia.

We estimated the event rates for stroke and transient cerebral ischemic attacks in a prospective community-based epidemiologic study in a representative segment of the city of Perth, Western Australia, during a 10-month period in 1986. Of 349 persons with an initial diagnosis of stroke or transient ischemic attack, 154 had suffered a first stroke, 75 a recurrent stroke, and 47 a transient ischemic attack; the remaining 73 persons were thought not to have had an episode of acute cerebrovascular disease. Annual event rates for first stroke (age-standardized to the "world" population) were 120 per 100,000 for males and 56 per 100,000 for females. The crude case-fatality ratio at 28 days after the index event for first stroke was 23% and varied from 0% for lacunar infarction to 57% for subarachnoid hemorrhage.