Cross Validation Research Articles

Quantification of uncertainty in short-term tropospheric column density risks for a wide range of carbon monoxide

The short-term risks associated with atmospheric trace gases, particularly carbon monoxide (CO), are critical for ecological security and human health. Traditional statistical methods, which still dominate the assessment of these risks, limit the potential for enhanced accuracy and reliability. This study evaluates the performance of traditional models (ARIMA), machine learning models (LightGBM, ConvLSTM2D), and optimized machine learning solutions (Bayes residual optimization ConvLSTM2D LightGBM, Bayes_CL) in predicting Sentinel 5P columnar CO levels. This study findings demonstrate that machine learning models and their optimized versions significantly outperform traditional ARIMA models in cross-validation (CV), visualization, and overall prediction performance. Notably, machine learning model based on Bayes and residual optimization (Bayes_CL) achieved the highest CV score (Bayes_CL R2 = 0.8, LightGBM R2 = 0.79, ConvLSTM2D R2 = 0.75, ARIMA R2 = 0.61), along with superior visualization and other metrics. Using Bayes_CL, we effectively quantified a 2.4% increase in columnar CO levels in mainland China in the second half of 2023, following the complete lifting of COVID-19 lockdowns. This study confirms that machine learning models can effectively replace traditional methods for short-term risk assessment of Sentinel 5P columnar CO. This transition holds significant implications for policy formulation, greenhouse effect assessment, and population health risk evaluation, especially in uncertain situations where human activities are severely disrupted, thereby affecting environmental safety.

Association Between Climatic Factors and Varicella Incidence in Wuxi, East China, 2010-2019: Surveillance Study.

Varicella is a common infectious disease and a growing public health concern in China, with increasing outbreaks in Wuxi. Analyzing the correlation between climate factors and varicella incidence in Wuxi is crucial for guiding public health prevention efforts. This study examines the impact of meteorological variables on varicella incidence in Wuxi, eastern China, from 2010 to 2019, offering insights for public health interventions. We collected daily meteorological data and varicella case records from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2019, in Wuxi, China. Generalized cross-validation identified optimal lag days by selecting those with the lowest score. The relationship between meteorological factors and varicella incidence was analyzed using Poisson generalized additive models and segmented linear regression. Subgroup analyses were conducted by gender and age. The study encompassed 64,086 varicella cases. Varicella incidence in Wuxi city displayed a bimodal annual pattern, with peak occurrences from November to January of the following year and lower peaks from May to June. Several meteorological factors influencing varicella risk were identified. A decrease of 1°C when temperatures were ≤20°C corresponded to a 1.99% increase in varicella risk (95% CI 1.57-2.42, P<.001). Additionally, a decrease of 1°C below 22.38°C in ground temperature was associated with a 1.36% increase in varicella risk (95% CI 0.96-1.75, P<.001). Each 1 mm increase in precipitation above 4.88 mm was associated with a 1.62% increase in varicella incidence (95% CI 0.93-2.30, P<.001). A 1% rise in relative humidity above 57.18% increased varicella risk by 2.05% (95% CI 1.26-2.84, P<.001). An increase in air pressure of 1 hPa below 1011.277 hPa was associated with a 1.75% rise in varicella risk (95% CI 0.75-2.77, P<.001). As wind speed and evaporation increased, varicella risk decreased linearly with a 16-day lag. Varicella risk was higher with sunshine durations exceeding 1.825 hours, with a 14-day lag, increasing by 1.30% for each additional hour of sunshine (95% CI 0.62-2.00, P=.006). Subgroup analyses revealed that teenagers and children under 17 years of age faced higher varicella risks associated with temperature, average ground temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and air pressure. Adults aged 18-64 years experienced increased risk with longer sunshine durations. Additionally, males showed higher varicella risks related to ground temperature and air pressure compared with females. However, no significant gender differences were observed regarding varicella risks associated with temperature (male: P<.001; female P<.001), precipitation (male: P=.001; female: P=.06), and sunshine duration (male: P=.53; female: P=.04). Our preliminary findings highlight the interplay between varicella outbreaks in Wuxi city and meteorological factors. These insights provide valuable support for developing policies aimed at reducing varicella risks through informed public health measures.

B-122 Improving the Diagnostic Utility of Multiplexed Assays in Laboratory Medicine with Machine Learning

Abstract Background The application of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) in precision medicine is of great interest and continues to grow. ML approaches offer a flexible and data-centric methodology for modeling diagnostic and prognostic trends, capable of identifying complex non-linear patterns and relationships between predictor variables and outcomes within large data sets. Although ML holds great promise, there are several common pitfalls that must be avoided for ML models to provide clinical utility. In the current study, we provide a rigorous and systematic evaluation of the utility of ML algorithms to predict disease in several representative data sets generated via multiplexed biomarker assays. We compare five major classes of ML algorithms compared to more traditional combinatorial analysis (logistic regression) to offer perspective against the current gold standard. Methods We obtained five data sets from published literature that include measurements of multiplexed biomarkers in patients with obstructive sleep apnea, sepsis, and breast and colon cancers in comparison to healthy controls. These datasets were generated by bead-based and planar multiplexed immunoassays. We chose representative ML algorithms from the classes of support vector machines (SVM), random forests (RF), neural networks (NNet), and extreme gradient boosting (xgBoost) in comparison to logistic regression (LR). Datasets were randomly split into internal validation and external validation sets via 10 iterations of permutation analysis. We tuned and validated the models using 5-fold cross validation, then tested those on external subsets. We report the average of several model classification metrics and associated variances across all resampled data sets. Results For the classification of sepsis using inflammatory cytokines measured on the Luminex bead-based immunoassay, RF outperformed LR in external validation sets by a 9.8% increase in AUROC. For classification of breast cancer patients, xgBoost and RF performed best with 20.0% and 16.9% increases in AUROC, respectively, whereas for classification of colon cancer patients, NNet outperformed LR by 11.5%. Across all datasets, on average, all ML algorithms outperformed LR in the internal validation sets by a 7.9% (6.3% - 9.9%) increase in AUROC. However, in external validation sets, only xgBoost and SVM outperformed LR, where RF and NNet showed signs of overfitting. Conclusions Overall, certain ML algorithms show improvement over LR for diagnostic applications using multiplexed assays, by up to 20% increase in AUROC. Interpretation of ML results must be performed rigorously to prevent overly optimistic and unrealistic conclusions. In the context of laboratory medicine, our results showcase the utility of ML in clinical applications, while highlighting potential disadvantages of ML. This analysis underscores the need for establishing rigorous guidelines to support data analytics during the development of novel multiplexed assays, which is needed to advance precision medicine.

B-123 Prediction of Opioid Use Duration in Post-Surgical Orthopedic Patients Using CYP2D6 Inhibitor Index and Routine Laboratory Markers

Abstract Background Hydrocodone, the most commonly prescribed opioid in the U.S., is typically used for pain management following surgery and is a known potential drug of abuse with non-negligible risk of addiction. Significant variability in patients’ response to hydrocodone therapy have been reported, owing to both iatrogenic and endogenous sources. The objective of this study is to evaluate the feasibility of predicting post-discharge hydrocodone use in patients who have undergone orthopedic surgery using patient demographics, genotyping, concurrently prescribed medications, and routinely collected laboratory test results. Methods Targeted genotyping was performed on each patient with genes known to affect hydrocodone pharmacokinetics or pharmacodynamics, including CYP2D6, CYP3A4, CYP3A5, CYP2B6, COMT, OPRM1, and ABCB1. An inhibition index for CYP2D6 was calculated by ranking concurrently prescribed medications as weak, moderate, or strong inhibitors of enzyme activity. Pain index, average hydrocodone dose per day during hospital stay, and CYP2D6 estimated activity scores based on allele functionality were included as predictors. In addition, a retrospective chart review of electronic hospital records was performed where basic metabolic panel and complete blood count results were screened within 10 days of each patient's surgery date. Two types of classification and decision tree algorithms were tuned and validated as prediction models using 5-fold cross validation, including a ‘Fast and Frugal Decision Tree’ (FFTree) and an extreme gradient boosting machine (xgBoost). Clinical predictive features were ranked according to the Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) values using the xgBoost model. Results Out of 79 total patients with hydrocodone use duration information, 25 were categorized as “Short” and 54 categorized as “Long” using a 1-week threshold. FFTree model selected the top three features of CYP2D6 inhibition index, blood sodium level, and blood creatinine level and obtained a sensitivity and specificity of 0.80 and 0.76, respectively. The xgBoost model, using the same three features, achieved a sensitivity and specificity of 0.872 and 0.628, respectively, an AUROC of 0.814, PRAUC of 0.912, net benefit of 0.359, and was well-calibrated with a Brier score of 0.161. Consistent with previously published results, the predictive capacity of all genotypes analyzed were unremarkable and consistently ranked as the least important features by the xgBoost model SHAP values, due to their low predictive value. Conclusions Both the FFTree and xgBoost models were able to adequately classify the patients according to a 1-week stratification criteria with good to excellent classification performance. Patients with larger CYP2D6 inhibition index were more likely to be classified as “Long” duration. Sodium and creatinine level, which may reflect hydration status and renal function, and therefore hydromorphone elimination rate, were key predictors of post-discharge hydrocodone use duration when combined with the CYP2D6 inhibition index. Further refinement of the proposed models and validation of model robustness and stability using external cohorts is necessary. These results may have implications for providers when prescribing hydrocodone for pain management, where the ability to risk-stratify patients according to their predicted probability of developing opioid use disorder is of clinical importance.

Smart material selection strategies for sustainable and cost-effective high-performance concrete production using deep learning

The creation of high-performing concrete (HPC) is greatly influenced by the selection of materials, with cost and sustainability factors playing a bigger part in contemporary building techniques. To overcome these limitations, we developed a Multi-Objective Ant Colony Adaptive Dense Convolutional Neural Network (MOAC-ADenseNet) with 5-K-Fold cross validation, a dependable and precise forecasting model for the cost-effective selection of HPC material. First, we collect a concrete material dataset for evaluating the suggested method. MOAC-ADenseNet utilized Dense convolutional neural networks and ant colony optimization for complex material data analysis, which makes it easier to choose expensive and sustainable materials for high-performance concrete manufacturing operations. The experimental findings of the suggested approach are evaluated for the relative measure such as Pearson's Linear Correlation Coefficient (R) is 0.93, the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) is 91.38, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 58.15, and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is 8.79. The outcomes demonstrated that the material cost of HPC was correctly predicted by the MOAC-ADenseNet. The actual measured value and the MOAC-ADenseNet model predictions, following 5-K-fold cross-validation and input feature improvement, shows its effectiveness. A The MOAC-ADenseNet approach provides feasible method for enhancing material selection in HPC manufacturing accomplishing sustainability and cost-effectiveness goals.

Prediction of Ischemic Stroke Functional Outcomes from Acute-Phase Noncontrast CT and Clinical Information.

Background Clinical outcome prediction based on acute-phase ischemic stroke data is valuable for planning health care resources, designing clinical trials, and setting patient expectations. Existing methods require individualized features and often involve manually engineered, time-consuming postprocessing activities. Purpose To predict the 90-day modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score with a deep learning (DL) model fusing noncontrast-enhanced CT (NCCT) and clinical information from the acute phase of stroke. Materials and Methods This retrospective study included data from six patient datasets from four multicenter trials and two registries. The DL-based imaging and clinical model was trained by using NCCT data obtained 1-7 days after baseline imaging and clinical data (age; sex; baseline and 24-hour National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale scores; and history of hypertension, diabetes, and atrial fibrillation). This model was compared with models based on either NCCT or clinical information alone. Model-specific mRS score prediction accuracy, mRS score accuracy within 1 point of the actual mRS score, mean absolute error (MAE), and performance in identifying unfavorable outcomes (mRS score, >2) were evaluated. Results A total of 1335 patients (median age, 71 years; IQR, 60-80 years; 674 female patients) were included for model development and testing through sixfold cross validation, with distributions of 979, 133, and 223 patients across training, validation, and test sets in each of the six cross-validation folds, respectively. The fused model achieved an MAE of 0.94 (95% CI: 0.89, 0.98) for predicting the specific mRS score, outperforming the imaging-only (MAE, 1.10; 95% CI: 1.05, 1.16; P < .001) and the clinical information-only (MAE, 1.00; 95% CI: 0.94, 1.05; P = .04) models. The fused model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.91 (95% CI: 0.89, 0.92) for predicting unfavorable outcomes, outperforming the clinical information-only model (AUC, 0.88; 95% CI: 0.87, 0.90; P < .001) and the imaging-only model (AUC, 0.85; 95% CI: 0.84, 0.87; P < .001). Conclusion A fused DL-based NCCT and clinical model outperformed an imaging-only model and a clinical-information-only model in predicting 90-day mRS scores. © RSNA, 2024 Supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Lee in this issue.

Interpretable general thermal comfort model based on physiological data from wearable bio sensors: Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP)

This study aims to develop a general thermal comfort model using physiological signals obtained from wristband-type wearable biosensors. Accordingly, we constructed and evaluated supervised machine learning models by leveraging a diverse array of features extracted from physiological signals, including electrodermal activity (EDA), photoplethysmogram (PPG), and skin temperature (SKT). The model’s performance was evaluated using data collected from 18 subjects across controlled experimental settings. Further, this study employed leave one subject out cross validation (LOSOCV) instead of the traditional k-fold CV to assess the model’s generalizability to new subjects. Furthermore, SHapley Addictive exPlanation (SHAP) was incorporated to augment the interpretability and transparency of the model. The LightGBM model demonstrated a commendable test accuracy of 79.7% in distinguishing thermal preferences, namely, “want warmer,” “comfort,” and “want cooler.” These findings underscore the feasibility of employing wearable biosensors to evaluate occupants’ thermal comfort in real-world environments. This study makes a significant contribution to the literature by laying the groundwork for a broadly applicable method of continuous, objective, and noninvasive thermal comfort monitoring among building occupants. Considering previous challenges associated with personalized thermal comfort models due to individual variability, our study represents a pivotal step toward the development of a generalized thermal comfort model.

A novel long non-coding RNA connects obesity to impaired adipocyte function

BackgroundLong non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) can perform tasks of key relevance in fat cells, contributing, when defective, to the burden of obesity and its sequelae. Here, scrutiny of adipose tissue transcriptomes before and after bariatric surgery (GSE53378) granted identification of 496 lncRNAs linked to the obese phenotype. Only expression of linc-GALNTL6-4 displayed an average recovery over 2-fold and FDR-adjusted p-value <0.0001 after weight loss. The aim of the present study was to investigate the impact on adipocyte function and potential clinical value of impaired adipose linc-GALNTL6-4 in obese subjects. MethodsWe employed transcriptomic analysis of public dataset GSE199063, and cross validations in two large transversal cohorts to report evidence of a previously unknown association of adipose linc-GALNTL6-4 with obesity. We then performed functional analyses in human adipocyte cultures, genome-wide transcriptomics, and untargeted lipidomics in cell models of loss and gain of function to explore the molecular implications of its associations with obesity and weight loss. ResultsThe expression of linc-GALNTL6-4 in human adipose tissue is adipocyte-specific and co-segregates with obesity, being normalized upon weight loss. This co-segregation is demonstrated in two longitudinal weight loss studies and two cross-sectional samples. While compromised expression of linc-GALNTL6-4 in obese subjects is primarily due to the inflammatory component in the context of obesity, adipogenesis requires the transcriptional upregulation of linc-GALNTL6-4, the expression of which reaches an apex in terminally differentiated adipocytes. Functionally, we demonstrated that the knockdown of linc-GALNTL6-4 impairs adipogenesis, induces alterations in the lipidome, and leads to the downregulation of genes related to cell cycle, while propelling in adipocytes inflammation, impaired fatty acid metabolism, and altered gene expression patterns, including that of apolipoprotein C1 (APOC1). Conversely, the genetic gain of linc-GALNTL6-4 ameliorated differentiation and adipocyte phenotype, putatively by constraining APOC1, also contributing to the metabolism of triglycerides in adipose. ConclusionsCurrent data unveil the unforeseen connection of adipocyte-specific linc-GALNTL6-4 as a modulator of lipid homeostasis challenged by excessive body weight and meta-inflammation.

Development of Machine Learning Model for Predicting Prolonged Operation Time in Lumbar Stenosis undergoing Posterior Lumbar Interbody Fusion: A Multi-center study

Background ContextLonger posterior lumbar interbody fusion (PLIF) surgeries for individuals with lumbar spinal stenosis are linked to more complications and negatively affect recovery after the operation. Therefore, there is a critical need for a method to accurately predict patients who are at risk for prolonged operation times. PurposeThis research aimed to develop a clinical model to predict prolonged operation time for patients undergoing PLIF procedures. Study Design/SettingThis study employs a machine-learning approach to analyze data retrospectively collected. Patient Sample3233 patients diagnosed with lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS) had posterior lumbar interbody fusion (PLIF) at 22 hospitals in China from January 2015 to December 2022. Outcome MeasuresThe primary outcome was operation time. Prolonged operation time defined as exceeded 75% of the overall surgical duration, which mean exceeding 240 minutes. MethodsA total of 3233 patients who underwent PLIF surgery with lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS) were divided into one training group and four test groups based on different district areas. The training group included 1569 patients, while Test1 had 541, Test2 had 403, Test3 had 351, and Test4 had 369 patients. Variables consisted of demographics, perioperative details, preoperative laboratory examinations and other Additional factors. Six algorithms were employed for variable screening, and variables identified by more than two screening methods were incorporated into the final model. In the training cohort, a 10-fold cross-validation (CV) and Bayesian hyperparameter optimization techniques were utilized to construct a model using eleven machine learning algorithms. Following this, the model was evaluated using four separate external test sets, and the mean Area Under the Curve (AUC) was computed to determine the best-performing model. Further performance metrics of the best model were evaluated, and SHapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP) were used for interpretability analysis to enhance decision-making transparency. Ultimately, an online calculator was created. ResultsAmong the various machine learning models, the Random Forest achieved the highest performance in the validation set, with AUROC scores of 0.832 in Test1, 0.834 in Test2, 0.816 inTest3, 0.822 in Test4) compared with other machine learning models. The top contributing variables were number of levels fusion, pre-APTT, weight and age. The predictive model was further refined by developing a web-based calculator for clinical application. (https://wenle.shinyapps.io/PPOT_LSS/) ConclusionsThis predictive model can facilitate identification of risk for prolonged operation time following PLIF surgery. Predictive calculators are expected to improve preoperative planning, identify patients with high risk factors, and help clinicians facilitating the improvement of treatment plans and the implementation of clinical intervention.

An active learning framework assisted development of corrosion risk assessment strategies for offshore pipelines

Aggressive fluids and prolonged service life result in an increasing internal corrosion risk of offshore pipelines, especially for perforation. A framework was constructed by active learning (AL) aimed at assessing the future corrosion risk of offshore pipelines and rapidly developing in-line inspection (ILI) strategies. Compared with Support Vector Regression (SVR), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) and Random Forest (RF), the Gradient Boosting Regression (GBR) model exhibits greater robustness and stability under both 10-fold cross-validation (CV) and bootstrap method. The RMSE and R2 are 1.48 and 0.83, respectively. Through the double iterative operation of input parameters and models, the AL framework can significantly reduce the demand for training samples, while maintaining accurate predictions. This study contributes to promoting the application of active learning methods in pipeline integrity management and planning, and providing assistance for the construction of intelligent and digital oilfields.

Integrating Clinical Variables, Radiomics, and Tumor-derived Cell-free DNA for Enhanced Prediction of Resectable Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Outcomes

The value of integrating clinical variables, radiomics, and tumor-derived cell-free DNA (cfDNA) for the prediction of survival and response to chemoradiation of resectable esophageal adenocarcinoma (rEAC) patients is not yet known. Our aim was to investigate if radiomics and cfDNA metrics combined with clinical variables can improve personalized predictions. A cohort of 111 rEAC patients from two centers treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy was used for exploratory retrospective analyses. Models combining the clinical variables of the SOURCE survival model with radiomic features and cfDNA, were built using elastic net regression and internally validated using 5-fold cross validation. Model performance for overall survival (OS) and time to progression (TTP) were evaluated with the C-index and the area under the curve (AUC) for pathological complete response (pCR) RESULTS: The best performing baseline models for OS and TTP were based on the combination of SOURCE-cfDNA which reached a C-index of 0.55 and 0.59 compared to 0.44-0.45 with SOURCE alone. The addition of re-staging PET radiomics to SOURCE was the most promising addition for predicting OS (C-index: 0.65) and TTP (C-index: 0.60). Baseline risk-stratification was achieved for OS and TTP by combining SOURCE with radiomics or cfDNA, log-rank p<0.01. The best performing combination model for the prediction of pCR reached an AUC of 0.61 compared to 0.47 with SOURCE variables alone. The addition of radiomics and cfDNA can improve the performance of an established survival model. External validity needs to be further assessed in future studies together with the optimization of radiomic pipelines.

Differential diagnosis between low-risk and high-risk thymoma: Comparison of diagnostic performance of radiologists with and without deep learning model.

There are few CT-based deep learning (DL) studies on thymoma according to the World Health Organization classification. To develop a CT-based DL model to distinguish between low-risk and high-risk thymoma and to compare the diagnostic performance of radiologists with and without the DL model. 159 patients with 160 thymomas were included. A fine-tuning VGG16 network model with Adam optimizer was used, followed by k-fold cross validation. The dataset consisted of three axial slices, including the maximum tumor size from the CT volume data. The data were augmented 50 times by rotation, zoom, shear, and horizontal/vertical flip. Three independent networks for the CT dataset were considered, and the result was determined by voting. Three radiologists independently diagnosed thymomas with and without the model. The area under the curve (AUC) of the diagnostic performance was compared using receiver operating characteristic analysis. Accuracy of the DL model was 71.3%. Diagnostic performance of the radiologists was as follows: AUC and accuracy without the DL model, 0.61-0.68 and 61.9%-69.3%; and with the DL model, 0.66-0.69 and 68.1%-70.0%, respectively. AUC of the diagnostic performance showed no significant differences between radiologists with and without the DL model. The DL model tended to increase the diagnostic accuracy, but AUC was not significantly improved. Diagnostic performance of the DL was comparable to that of radiologists. The DL model assistance tended to increase diagnostic accuracy.

Deep Learning-Based Synthetic Computed Tomography for Low-Field Brain Magnetic Resonance-Guided Radiation Therapy

PurposeMR-guided Radiation Therapy (MRgRT) enables online adaptation to address intra- and inter-fractional changes. To address the need of high-fidelity synthetic CT (synCT) required for dose calculation, we developed a conditional generative adversarial network (cGAN) for synCT generation from low-field MRI in the brain. Methods and MaterialsSimulation MR-CT pairs from twelve glioma patients imaged with a head and neck surface coil and treated on a 0.35T MR-linac were prospectively included to train the model consisting of a 9-block residual network generator and a PatchGAN discriminator. Four-fold cross validation was implemented. SynCT was quantitatively evaluated against real CT using mean absolute error (MAE), Peak Signal-to-Noise Ratio (PSNR) and Structural Similarity (SSIM). Dose was calculated on synCT applying original treatment plan. Dosimetric performance was evaluated by dose-volume histogram (DVH) metric comparison and local three-dimensional gamma analysis. To demonstrate utilization in treatment adaptation, longitudinal synCTs were generated for qualitative evaluation, and one offline adaptation case underwent two comparative plan evaluations. Secondary validation was conducted with 9 patients on a different MR-linac using a high-resolution brain coil. ResultsOur model generated high-quality synCTs with MAE, PSNR and SSIM of 70.9±10.4 HU, 28.4±1.5 d.B. and 0.87±0.02 within the field-of-view, respectively. Underrepresented post-surgical anomalies challenged model performance. Nevertheless, excellent dosimetric agreement was observed with the mean difference between real and synCT DVH metrics of -0.07±0.29 Gy for target D95 and within [-0.14, 0.02] Gy for organs at risk. Significant differences were only observed in the right lens D0.01cc with negligible overall difference (<0.13 Gy). Mean gamma analysis pass rates were 92.2%±3.0%, 99.2%±0.7% and 99.9%±0.1% at 1%/1mm, 2%/2mm and 3%/3mm, respectively. Secondary validation yielded no significant differences in synCT performance for whole brain MAE, PSNR, and SSIM with comparable dosimetric results. ConclusionsOur cGAN model generated high-fidelity brain synCTs from low-field MRI with excellent dosimetric performance. Secondary validation suggests great promise of implementing synCTs to facilitate robust dose calculation for online adaptive brain MRgRT.

The genetic basis of resistance to Enterocytozoon hepatopenaei (EHP) and White feces syndrome (WFS) in the whiteleg shrimp (Litopenaeus vannamei)

The microsporidian Enterocytozoon hepatopenaei (EHP) is a yeast-like intracellular fungus, that in the last decade has significantly contributed to major economic losses in the whiteleg shrimp (Litopenaeus vannamei) industry worldwide. In commercial ponds, EHP affected shrimp frequently also shows symptoms of White Feces Syndrome (WFS), characterized by floating white fecal strings, reduced feed consumption, and growth retardation. To elucidate the genetic basis of resistance to EHP + WFS, a challenge test was conducted using a pedigreed shrimp population from the Benchmark Genetics breeding program in Colombia. Out of the total genotyped animals, 1436 individuals from 47 families successfully passed quality control, underwent parentage analysis, had phenotypic records and were available for further analysis. Moderate heritabilities were estimated for binary survival to EHP + WFS using pedigree based (0.31 ± 0.04) and genomic analysis (0.41 ± 0.06). Furthermore, a low genetic correlation between body weight and EHP + WFS challenge test survival traits was observed, implying that genetic improvement of resistance to EHP + WFS can be achieved without compromising growth performance. The genome-wide association analysis showed little evidence for any major QTL, indicating that multiple genes with small effects collectively contribute to EHP + WFS resistance. Furthermore, cross validation analysis showed 0.54 ± 0.01 accuracy of prediction for genomic analysis and 0.49 ± 0.001 for the pedigree analysis, indicating the relevance of a genomic selection strategy for achieving genetic improvement for EHP + WFS resistance in L. vannamei.

Allometric Models for Estimating Above-Ground, Below-Ground and Total Biomass of Tea (&lt;em&gt;Camellia sinensis&lt;/em&gt; (L.) O. Kuntze) Plants Grown in Uva and Up Country, Sri Lanka

This study was conducted to identify the dendrometric variables highly correlating with above-ground (AGB), below-ground (BGB) and total (TB) biomass of tea grown in Uva and Up Country Sri Lanka, develop allometric models to estimate AGB, BGB and TB of tea plants, and to investigate the applicability of already developed allometric models in other countries to Sri Lanka. Twelve experimental plots from TRIORCON field experiment at Tea Research Institute of Sri Lanka, and 18 farmer fields in Uva region, Sri Lanka were selected as the study sites. Representative tea plants were uprooted from the selected sites and seven dendrometric variables were measured. Fresh and dry AGB and BGB of the tea plants were determined. The best allometric models to predict AGB, BGB and TB using dendrometric variables were developed using multiple linear and non-linear regression analyses. Non-linear allometric models fitted best when predicting AGB and TB. Over 64% of total variability of AGB and TB was explained by these models using collar diameter at the soil level. Linear allometric fitted best when predicting BGB. Over 92% of total variability of BGB was explained by linear regression models using collar circumference, main-stem circumference, mean length and circumference at end of the primary branches. Leave-one-out cross validation showed strong positive (AGB and TB) and moderate positive (BGB) correlations between observed and predicted biomass values. Developed linear allometric models in comparison to those in literature showed better fit to data collected under Sri Lankan conditions and precisely estimated AGB, BGB and TB.

SmartScanPCOS: A feature-driven approach to cutting-edge prediction of Polycystic Ovary Syndrome using Machine Learning and Explainable Artificial Intelligence

PolyCystic Ovarian Syndrome (PCOS) poses significant challenges to women's reproductive health due to its diagnostic complexity arising from a variety of symptoms, including hirsutism, anovulation, pain, obesity, hyperandrogenism, and oligomenorrhea, necessitating multiple clinical tests. Leveraging Artificial Intelligence (AI) in healthcare offers several benefits that can significantly impact patient care, streamline operations, and improve medical outcomes overall. This study presents an Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)-driven PCOS smart predictor, structured as a hierarchical ensemble consisting of two tiers of Random Forest classifiers following extensive analysis of seven conventional classifiers and two additional stacking ensemble classifiers. An open-source data set comprising numerical parametric features linked to PCOS for classifier training was used. Moreover, to identify essential features for PCOS prediction three feature selection methods: Threshold-driven Optimized Principal Component Analysis (TOPCA), Optimized Salp Swarm (OSSM), and Threshold-driven Optimized Mutual Information Method (TOMIM) were fine-tuned through thresholding and improvisation to detect diverse attribute sets with varying numbers and combinations. Notably, the two-level Random Forest classifier model outperformed others with a remarkable 99.31 % accuracy by employing the top 17 features selected through the Threshold-driven Optimized Mutual Information Method (TOMIM) along with anoverallaccuracy of 99.32 % with 8 fold cross validation for 25 runs. The Smart predictor, constructed using Shapash - a Python library for Explainable Artificial Intelligence - was utilized to deploy the two-level Random Forest classifier model. Ensuring transparency and result reliability, visualizations from robust Explainable AI libraries were employed at different prediction stages for all considered classifiers in this study.

Development and validation of a risk prediction model for acute care use among patients with advanced cancer on clinical trials.

277 Background: Patients with advanced cancer on clinical trials are at high risk for unplanned Emergency Room visits (ER_visits) and hospital stays (HS). Identifying patients at highest risk could inform personalized intervention strategies. Methods: The data were from the SWOG Cancer Research Network. Medicare claims data were linked to data from advanced cancer clinical trials. The occurrence of any HS or ER visit within 1 year after enrollment was the primary endpoint. Patients must have had 6 months of continuous Medicare claims prior to registration to determine comorbid conditions prior to treatment, and 12 months of claims after registration (or until death) to detect outcomes. We examined 23 sociodemographic (age, sex, race, ethnicity, insurance status), geographic (rural or urban, area-level deprivation), clinical (disease severity, performance status), treatment (line of therapy, therapy type), and individual comorbidity factors to establish a predictive risk model. Model derivation was conducted in a 60% random sample and tested in the remaining 40%. Best subset selection with logistic regression was used with iterative application of 3-, 4-, and 5-fold cross validation repeated 10 times. Results: Among N=1397 total patients from 6 trials (lung, 3; prostate, 2; pancreas, 1), 33.9% were 75+ years, 20.3% were female, and 8.2% were Black. The overall proportion of patients with ≥1 HS/ER visit was 68.8%. In the training set (n=839), a best 5-variable risk was identified with adverse risk factors including cancer type (prostate vs other), performance status (PS; 0 vs. &gt;=1), coronary artery disease (CAD; yes vs. no), hypertension (yes vs. no), and liver disease (yes vs. no). As cancer type was a study-level variable, we derived a risk model using PS, CAD, hypertension, and liver disease and adjusted for cancer type. There were no differences in adverse risk between those in with and without prostate cancer (interaction p-value=.44), justifying combining across cancer types. In the training set, patients with ≥2 risk factors (high risk; n=303, 36.1%) vs. 0/1 risk factor (low risk; n=536, 63.9%) had nearly a 3-fold increased odds of experiencing HS/ER visit (82.2% vs. 59.1%, OR=2.85, 95% CI, 2.01-4.03, p&lt;.001). Results were successfully validated in the test set (OR=1.93, p=.002). In all patients, those in the highest risk quartile (3/4 factors) vs the lowest risk (0 factors) had nearly a fourfold increased odds of HS/ER visits (OR=3.92, 95% CI, 2.25-6.83, p&lt;.001). Conclusions: Rates of HS_ER visits were high within the first year after enrolling on a trial for advanced cancer. We derived and validated a risk model that delineated strong differences in risk. With expansion of eligibility to include patients with more comorbid conditions, personalized interventions aimed at preventing acute care use could decrease the cost and improve the quality of cancer care.

Harnessing machine learning for predicting mechanical properties of lightweight Mg alloys

In this study, we introduce a machine learning methodology for predicting mechanical properties in Mg-based multicomponent alloys, incorporating alloying elements and processing methods as input variables. We employed eight ML models and assessed their efficacy using metrics such as R2, RMSE, and MAE after using five-fold cross validation grid search hyperparameters tuning process. Following this, we implemented the top-performing Extra Tree (ET), Random Forest (RF) and XGB models to predict mechanical properties for Mg alloys. The best performance was observed with an R2 of 95.1 % and 97.2 %, RMSE of 7 % and 8 %, and MAE of 4.7 % and 5 % for UTS and YS respectively using the Extra Tree model. This research not only showcases the efficiency of ML techniques with minimal intervention but also offers valuable insights paving the way for accelerated design of Mg-alloys for tailored application in the future.

Artificial intelligence abnormal driving behavior detection for mitigating traffic accidents

Annually, a tragic toll of 1.3 million lives is lost on roads across the globe, with tens of millions more suffering injuries or disabilities. The necessity for precise detection of abnormal driving behavior is paramount in reducing traffic accidents. This paper aims to bridge the gap between normal and abnormal driving patterns, offering near-flawless detection capabilities. This paper presents a novel AI tachograph prototype, the first of its kind, that can classify driving behavior into normal and abnormal in real time with an impressive accuracy of 99.99 %. This high level of accuracy is achieved by using a bias-reduction method. The bias-reduction method focuses on minimizing biases in the dataset, such as surrounding situations, location, driver information, and car types. This approach significantly enhances the prediction accuracy of existing machine learning algorithms. The dataset used for this research is quite extensive, consisting of anomaly data collected from 10,181 commercial vehicles and 12,530 drivers in just 0.1 s. This rich dataset is crucial for building a reliable model. The effectiveness of the proposed method was validated using 10-fold cross validation on 480 k to 540 k instances with 36 determinants. The results clearly demonstrated that reducing bias leads to higher prediction accuracy. The paper also plans to compare the prediction accuracy of balanced and imbalanced datasets. The findings from this research have broader implications as the proposed method can be applied generally to machine learning to improve prediction accuracy.

Evaluation of the Impact of Artificial Intelligence on the Systems Audit Process

The paper analyzes the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) in systems auditing, fastening on process optimization through the use of advanced technologies similar as intelligent independent systems. A comprehensive literature review was conducted to understand the operation of AI in checkups, revealing that the integration of these technologies has increased inspection delicacy by over to 93. Specific ways similar as cross-validation (CV), support vector machines (SVMs), and artificial neural networks (ANNs) were employed, demonstrating their effectiveness in perfecting delicacy, receptivity, and particularly in anomaly discovery, with results of 87, 90, and 93 independently. The findings emphasize the need to address the ethical and sequestration pitfalls that accompany the use of AI in checkups, given that while these technologies ameliorate effectiveness and delicacy, they also pose significant challenges in terms of ethical and security data running. In this environment, it's recommended that associations invest in training their staff in the use of AI tools, as well as establish clear programs to insure ethics and sequestration. In addition, it emphasizes the significance of continuing to probe and develop new AI operations that will further ameliorate the effects of system checkups in an ever-changing digital terrain. The perpetration of AI not only optimizes processes but also provides a significant competitive advantage by enabling more accurate discovery of irregularities and patterns in large volumes of data. In summary, AI represents a revolution in the field of systems auditing, offering opportunities to improve accuracy and efficiency, although it is crucial to proactively manage the associated ethical and privacy challenges.