Time Series Cross-sectional Study Research Articles

Racial inequities in homicide rates and homicide methods among Black and White women aged 25–44 years in the USA, 1999–2020: a cross-sectional time series study

In the USA, Black women aged 25-44 years are disproportionately murdered compared with their White counterparts. Despite ongoing efforts to reduce racial and structural inequities, the result of these efforts remains unclear, particularly in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study examined a cross-sectional time series of homicide death rates, by race, from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research system. We included data for women aged 25-44 years between 1999 and 2020 among 30 states in the USA. Homicide death was classified using underlying cause and multiple cause of death codes; mortality rates were calculated per 100 000 based on US Census Bureau population sizes. Homicide methods were classified as firearm, cutting or piercing, and other. Firearm homicides were compared with other homicides with logistic regression including covariates of race, time, and their interaction. We report odds ratios and 95% CIs. In 2020, the homicide rate among Black women was 11·6 per 100 000, compared with 3 per 100 000 among White women. This inequity has persisted over time and is virtually unchanged since 1999. Homicide inequities vary across US states; in 11 states, racial inequities have increased since 1999. The racial inequity was greatest in Wisconsin, where in 2019-20, Black women aged 25-44 years were 20 times more likely to die by homicide than White women. Homicide by firearm is increasing in frequency; women in the USA had 2·44 (95% CI 2·14-2·78) times the odds of homicide involving firearms in 2019-20 compared with 1999-2003. Firearm homicide deaths are disproportionately concentrated among Black women in every region in the USA. Our findings suggest that there is an urgent need to address homicide inequities among Black and White women in the USA. Enacting federal legislation that reduces gun access is a crucial step. Policy makers must address long-standing structural factors that underpin elevated gun violence by implementing sustainable wealth-building opportunities; developing desegregated, mixed income and affordable housing; and increasing green spaces in communities where Black women largely reside. National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health.

Association Between Nitrogen Dioxide Pollution and Cause-Specific Mortality in China: Cross-Sectional Time Series Study.

Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) has been frequently linked to a range of diseases and associated with high rates of mortality and morbidity worldwide. However, there is limited evidence regarding the risk of NO2 on a spectrum of causes of mortality. Moreover, adjustment for potential confounders in NO2 analysis has been insufficient, and the spatial resolution of exposure assessment has been limited. This study aimed to quantitatively assess the relationship between short-term NO2 exposure and death from a range of causes by adjusting for potential confounders in Guangzhou, China, and determine the modifying effect of gender and age. A time series study was conducted on 413,703 deaths that occurred in Guangzhou during the period of 2010 to 2018. The causes of death were classified into 10 categories and 26 subcategories. We utilized a generalized additive model with quasi-Poisson regression analysis using a natural cubic splines function with lag structure of 0 to 4 days to estimate the potential lag effect of NO2 on cause-specific mortality. We estimated the percentage change in cause-specific mortality rates per 10 μg/m3 increase in NO2 levels. We stratified meteorological factors such as temperature, humidity, wind speed, and air pressure into high and low levels with the median as the critical value and analyzed the effects of NO2 on various death-causing diseases at those high and low levels. To further identify potentially vulnerable subpopulations, we analyzed groups stratified by gender and age. A significant association existed between NO2 exposure and deaths from multiple causes. Each 10 μg/m3 increment in NO2 density at a lag of 0 to 4 days increased the risks of all-cause mortality by 1.73% (95% CI 1.36%-2.09%) and mortality due to nonaccidental causes, cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, endocrine disease, and neoplasms by 1.75% (95% CI 1.38%-2.12%), 2.06% (95% CI 1.54%-2.59%), 2.32% (95% CI 1.51%-3.13%), 2.40% (95% CI 0.84%-3.98%), and 1.18% (95% CI 0.59%-1.78%), respectively. Among the 26 subcategories, mortality risk was associated with 16, including intentional self-harm, hypertensive disease, and ischemic stroke disease. Relatively higher effect estimates of NO2 on mortality existed for low levels of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and air pressure than with high levels, except a relatively higher effect estimate was present for endocrine disease at a high air pressure level. Most of the differences between subgroups were not statistically significant. The effect estimates for NO2 were similar by gender. There were significant differences between the age groups for mortality due to all causes, nonaccidental causes, and cardiovascular disease. Short-term NO2 exposure may increase the risk of mortality due to a spectrum of causes, especially in potentially vulnerable populations. These findings may be important for predicting and modifying guidelines for NO2 exposure in China.

Baseline and early changes in laboratory parameters predict disease severity and fatal outcomes in COVID-19 patients.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become the worst catastrophe of the twenty-first century and has led to the death of more than 6.9 million individuals across the globe. Despite the growing knowledge of the clinicopathological features of COVID-19, the correlation between baseline and early changes in the laboratory parameters and the clinical outcomes of patients is not entirely understood. Here, we conducted a time series cross-sectional study aimed at assessing different measured parameters and socio-demographic factors that are associated with disease severity and the outcome of the disease in 268 PCR-confirmed COVID-19 Patients. We found COVID-19 patients who died had a median age of 61 years (IQR, 50 y - 70 y), which is significantly higher (p < 0.05) compared to those who survived and had a median age of 54 years (IQR, 42y - 65y). The median RBC count of COVID-19 survivors was 4.9 × 106/μL (IQR 4.3 × 106/μL - 5.2 × 106/μL) which is higher (p < 0.05) compared to those who died 4.4 × 106/μL (3.82 × 106/μL - 5.02 × 106/μL). Similarly, COVID-19 survivors had significantly (p < 0.05) higher lymphocyte and monocyte percentages compared to those who died. One important result we found was that COVID-19 patients who presented with severe/critical cases at the time of first admission but managed to survive had a lower percentage of neutrophil, neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, higher lymphocyte and monocyte percentages, and RBC count compared to those who died. To conclude here, we showed that simple laboratory parameters can be used to predict severity and outcome in COVID-19 patients. As these parameters are simple, inexpensive, and radially available in most resource-limited countries, they can be extrapolated to future viral epidemics or pandemics to allocate resources to particular patients.

Assessing the influence of COVID-19 on influenza prevalence: A multicenter time series study

BackgroundDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, countries around the world implemented various interventions to manage the spread of respiratory illnesses, including influenza. However, there is a lack of studies that have assessed the influence of COVID-19 on influenza prevalence in Saudi Arabia. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the prevalence of positive influenza cases before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in relation to the mitigation measures and policy initiatives in Saudi Arabia. MethodsA multicenter, time-series cross-sectional study was conducted to evaluate influenza prevalence before and during the COVID-19 pandemic between 01/01/2017 and 31/12/2021. This study included all patients who were screened for influenza infection at healthcare facilities across Saudi Arabia using polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The primary outcome was to determine the prevalence of influenza infections before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, while the secondary outcome was to describe the demographic data and comorbidities of the included patients in both periods. ResultsDuring the study period, 5238 cases were identified based on a positive PCR result for influenza virus. The yearly number of influenza cases in the pre-COVID-19 period was 1123 (2.03 %), 1075 (1.63 %), and 1883 (2.20 %) cases in 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively. On the other hand, the number of cases during the COVID-19 pandemic was 417 (0.63 %) and 740 (1.27 %) in 2020 and 2021, respectively, with a comparable number of performed tests. Patients infected with the influenza virus between 2020 and 2021 were older than patients who were infected before the COVID-19 pandemic. ConclusionThe study found a lower number of influenza cases during the COVID-19 pandemic, with no clear peak during November and December 2020 and 2021.

Infant feeding practices in three Latin American countries in three decades: what demographic, health, and economic factors are relevant?

Studies in Latin America have focused either on analyzing factors associated with exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) or infant formula (IF). Analyze the association between economic, sociodemographic, and health factors with EBF, mixed milk feeding (MixMF), and exclusive use of IF in three Latin American and Caribbean countries in the 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s. Cross-sectional time-series study using data from Demographic and Health Surveys between the 1990s and 2010s in Colombia (1995-2010), Haiti (1994-2017), and Peru (1996-2012) accounting for a sample of 12,775 infants under 6 months. Hierarchical logistic multilevel regression models were used to estimate the adjusted association between infant feeding outcomes (EBF, MixMF, exclusive use of IF) and contextual level DHS survey decade (1990s, 2000s and 2010s) and economic factors (Gross Domestic Product by purchasing power parity, female wage and salaried workers, labor force participation rate female) as well as individual level sociodemographic (maternal age, maternal education, number of children in the household, wealth index, mother living with a partner, area of residence, mother working outside of home), and health factors (breastfed in the first hour, C-section). Factors associated with EBF cessation were c-section (OR: 0.76; 95%CI: 0.64, 0.92), mothers working outside of the home (OR: 0.79; 95%CI: 0.69, 0.90), families in the highest income quintile (OR: 0.64; 95%CI: 0.49, 0.84), and female wage and salaried workers (OR: 0.92; 95%CI: 0.91, 0.94). MixMF was associated with women with higher education (OR: 1.54; 95%CI: 1.21, 1.97), mother working outside of the home (OR: 1.26; 95%CI: 1.10, 1.43), c-section (OR: 1.37; 95%CI: 1.15, 1.62), families in the highest income quintiles (OR: 2.77; 2.10, 3.65). and female wage and salaried workers (OR: 1.08;95% CI: 1.05, 1.09). Exclusive use of IF was associated with a mother working outside of the home (OR: 2.09; 95%CI: 1.41, 3.08), c-section (OR: 1.65; 95%CI: 1.09, 2.51), families in the highest income quintiles (OR: 12.08; 95% CI: 4.26, 34.28), the 2010s (OR: 3.81; 95%CI: 1.86, 7.79), and female wage and salaried workers (OR: 1.12; 95%CI: 1.07, 1.16). Factors related to women empowerment and gender equality jeopardized EBF and favored the exclusive use of IF in Latin America. Therefore, workplace interventions to promote, protect, and support breastfeeding practices are key to reducing exclusive use of IF.

Provision of evaluation and management visits by nurse practitioners and physician assistants in the USA from 2013 to 2019: cross-sectional time series study

ObjectiveTo examine the proportion of healthcare visits are delivered by nurse practitioners and physician assistants versus physicians and how this has changed over time and by clinical setting, diagnosis, and...

Trends in Alcohol-Related Deaths by Sex in the US, 1999-2020

Alcohol consumption rates have been increasing among women in the US, which may affect mortality rates and sex gaps. Therefore, conducting a comprehensive assessment of sex differences in alcohol-related deaths is essential to inform targeted interventions and policies aimed at reducing the burden of alcohol-related harm among the population. To examine sex differences in the burden and trends of alcohol-related mortality in the US from 1999 to 2020. This cross-sectional time series study used Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research data on alcohol-related deaths from 1999 to 2020. Alcohol-related deaths were identified from the underlying cause of death files using International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision, codes, including alcohol-related poisoning, liver disease, gastritis, cardiomyopathy, myopathy, polyneuropathy, and pseudo-Cushing syndrome, among others. Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) were analyzed by sex and substratified by race and ethnicity, age, and census region. Rate ratios and 95% CIs calculated by Taylor series were used to assess sex differences in mortality burden. Joinpoint regression was used to assess temporal trends. A total of 605 948 alcohol-attributed deaths were identified in the US from 1999 through 2020 (AAMR, 8.3 per 100 000 persons; 95% CI, 8.3-8.3 per 100 000 persons). The mortality burden was higher among male individuals than female individuals, with male individuals being 2.88 (95% CI, 2.86-2.89) times more likely to die compared with female individuals. However, temporal trends showed an increase in alcohol-related deaths for both male and female individuals in recent years, with higher rates of increase among female individuals relative to male individuals. The AAMR increased by 12.5% (95% CI, 6.4%-19.1%) per year among male individuals from 2018 to 2020 but increased by 14.7% (95% CI, 9.1%-20.5%) per year among female individuals during the same period. Trend differences were observed across subtypes of age, race and ethnicity, cause, and region. This study of alcohol-related mortality in the US suggests there has been a significantly higher rate of increase in deaths among female individuals in recent years. These findings underscore the need for further research to understand the specific factors associated with this trend. The development of targeted interventions and evidence-based treatments for alcohol use among female individuals becomes imperative in effectively addressing the increasing rates of alcohol-related deaths.

National adoption of neoadjuvant chemotherapy: paradigm shift in the treatment of pancreatic cancer

BackgroundThe historical standard of care in treating operable pancreatic cancer via upfront surgery has been challenged recently using a neoadjuvant approach. The aim of the study is to examine the national practice patterns in the management of pancreatic cancer with an emphasis on the trends of neoadjuvant systemic therapy use. MethodsThis is a cross-sectional time-series study using the National Cancer Database from 2006 to 2019. Patients who underwent resection for stage I-II pancreatic adenocarcinoma were selected. ResultsOverall, 25% of patients had neoadjuvant chemotherapy, 49% had surgery followed by adjuvant chemotherapy and 26% had surgery alone. The rate of neoadjuvant chemotherapy has increased from 11% in 2006 to 43% in 2019. There was a decrease in the rate of surgery followed by chemotherapy from 48% to 38%, and a decrease in the rate of surgery alone from 41% to 19%. The rate of radiation therapy use has decreased over time, as has the resection rate, while median overall survival has steadily improved over the years. ConclusionsIn 2019, the rate of using neoadjuvant systemic therapy overtook the rate of surgery first followed by adjuvant systemic therapy, marking a pragmatic national shift in the clinical management of pancreatic cancer.

Dashboard With Bump Charts to Visualize the Changes in the Rankings of Leading Causes of Death According to Two Lists: National Population-Based Time-Series Cross-Sectional Study.

Health advocates and the media often use the rankings of the leading causes of death (CODs) to draw attention to health issues with relatively high mortality burdens in a population. The National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) publishes "Deaths: leading causes" annually. The ranking list used by the NCHS and statistical offices in several countries includes broad categories such as cancer, heart disease, and accidents. However, the list used by the World Health Organization (WHO) subdivides broad categories (17 for cancer, 8 for heart disease, and 6 for accidents) and classifies Alzheimer disease and related dementias and hypertensive diseases more comprehensively compared to the NCHS list. Regarding the data visualization of the rankings of leading CODs, the bar chart is the most commonly used graph; nevertheless, bar charts may not effectively reveal the changes in the rankings over time. The aim of this study is to use a dashboard with bump charts to visualize the changes in the rankings of the leading CODs in the United States by sex and age from 1999 to 2021, according to 2 lists (NCHS vs WHO). Data on the number of deaths in each category from each list for each year were obtained from the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research system, maintained by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Rankings were based on the absolute number of deaths. The dashboard enables users to filter by list (NCHS or WHO) and demographic characteristics (sex and age) and highlight a particular COD. Several CODs that were only on the WHO list, including brain, breast, colon, hematopoietic, lung, pancreas, prostate, and uterus cancer (all classified as cancer on the NCHS list); unintentional transport injury; poisoning; drowning; and falls (all classified as accidents on the NCHS list), were among the 10 leading CODs in several sex and age subgroups. In contrast, several CODs that appeared among the 10 leading CODs according to the NCHS list, such as pneumonia, kidney disease, cirrhosis, and sepsis, were excluded from the 10 leading CODs if the WHO list was used. The rank of Alzheimer disease and related dementias and hypertensive diseases according to the WHO list was higher than their ranks according to the NCHS list. A marked increase in the ranking of unintentional poisoning among men aged 45-64 years was noted from 2008 to 2021. A dashboard with bump charts can be used to improve the visualization of the changes in the rankings of leading CODs according to the WHO and NCHS lists as well as demographic characteristics; the visualization can help users make informed decisions regarding the most appropriate ranking list for their needs.

Assessment of Low-Level Air Pollution and Cardiovascular Incidence in Gdansk, Poland: Time-Series Cross-Sectional Analysis.

(1) Background: More than 1.8 million people in the European Union die every year as a result of CVD, accounting for 36% of all deaths with a large proportion being premature (before the age of 65). There are more than 300 different risk factors of CVD, known and air pollution is one of them. The aim of this study was to investigate whether daily cardiovascular mortality was associated with air pollutants and meteorological conditions in an urban environment with a low level of air pollution. (2) Methods: Data on daily incidence of strokes and myocardial infarctions in the city of Gdansk were obtained from the National Health Fund (NHF) and covered the period from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2018. Data on the level of pollution, i.e., SO2, NO, NO2, NOx, CO, PM10, PM2.5, CO2, O3 and meteorological conditions came from the foundation: Agency of Regional Air Quality Monitoring in the Gdańsk metropolitan area (ARMAG). Using these data, we calculated mean values with standard deviation (SD) and derived the minimum and maximum values and interquartile range (IQR). Time series regression with Poisson distribution was used in statistical analysis. (4) Results: Stroke incidence is significantly affected by an increase in concentrations of NO, NO2 and NOx with RRs equal to 1.019 (95%CI: 1.001-1.036), 1.036 (95%CI: 1.008-1.064) and 1.017 (95%CI: 1.000-1.034) for every increase in IQR by 14.12, 14.62 and 22.62 μg/m3, respectively. Similarly, myocardial infarction incidence is significantly affected by an increase in concentrations of NO, NO2 and NOx with RRs equal to 1.030 (95%CI: 1.011-1.048), 1.053 (95%CI: 1.024-1.082) and 1.027 (95%CI: 1.010-1.045) for every increase in IQR by 14.12, 14.62 and 22.62 μg/m3, respectively. Both PM10 and PM2.5 were positively associated with myocardial infarction incidence. (5) Conclusions: In this time-series cross-sectional study, we found strong evidence that support the hypothesis that transient elevations in ambient PM2.5, PM10, NO2, SO2 and CO are associated with higher relative risk of ischemic stroke and myocardial infarction incidents.

Magnitude and Factors Associated with Refer Results of Newborn Hearing Screening at Academic Tertiary Level Hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Background Hearing impairment is a leading cause of disability worldwide. Early identification and early intervention of hearing loss can prevent further disability in the development of speech, language, cognition, and other developmental domains. This study aimed to determine the magnitude and factors associated with the refer results of newborn hearing screening at an academic tertiary hospital. Methods An institution-based time series cross-sectional study was conducted with a calculated sample size of 368 newborns selected by systemic random sampling from a total of 2087 newborns born in SPHMMC during the study period. Two stage screening protocol was conducted using Transient Evoked Otoacoustic Emission (TEOAE) on the first, followed by TEOAE and Auditory Brainstem Reflex (ABR) as a second stage for newborns with refer results. Data were analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 26.0. Bivariate and multivariate analyses between dependent and independent variables were performed using binary logistic regression with a significance level of P value <0.05. Result Of the total sample size of 368 newborns, 62% (228) passed the first TEOAE and 38% (140) yielded refer results. From 121 who came for follow-up screening (6–28 days), 49.5% (60) passed the second TEOAE and 50.5% (61) had refer results. AABR screening of 61 newborns yielded pass in 11.5% (7) and refer result in 88.5% (54) newborns. Noise (AOR= 4.746, 95% CI 2.505–8.992, P < 0.001), vernix caseosa (AOR= 19.745, 95% CI 9.057–43.043, P < 0.001), and very low birth weight (AOR= 4.338, 95% CI 1.338–14.067, P=0.015) were found to be significantly associated with the refer rate of the first TEOAE test. Noise (AOR 39.445, 95% CI 5.974–260.467, P < 0.001) and neonatal jaundice (AOR 21.633, 95% CI 1.540–303.994, P=0.023) were significantly associated with the follow-up screening refer result of TEOAE. Repeat TEOAE has decreased the refer rate from 38.0% (140/368) to 17.5% (61/349), 19 of which were lost to follow-up. AABR has decreased the overall refer rate from 17.5% to 15.5% (54/349). Conclusion This study shows a significant number of newborns (15.5%) who need diagnostic audiologic work-up and may need intervention. Vernix caseosa and noise are avoidable factors, but newborns with jaundice and very low birth weight should be sent to ENT for screening.

Secular Difference in Body Mass Index From 2014 to 2020 in Chinese Older Adults: A Time-Series Cross-Sectional Study.

BackgroundBody mass index (BMI) is the most widely used parameter to assess the body weight status. Both the increase of BMI (overweight and obesity) and decrease of BMI (underweight) has been associated with high risk of adverse outcome, such as stroke, disability, and even death. However, recent data on secular differences in BMI in the Chinese aged population are limited. The present study provides robust new evidence about the evolving epidemic of obesity among aged adults in China.ObjectiveEvaluating secular difference in BMI in a group of Chinese older adults.Materials and MethodsWe analyzed 7 continuous survey years (2014–2020), including 50,192 Chinese aged participants (25,505 men and 24,687 women, aged 71.9 ± 6.1 years, age range: 65–99 years). Information on sex, age, height, and body weight, was collected based on medical history. Participants were classified into four groups: underweight (BMI < 18.5 kg/m2), normal weight (18.5 kg/m2 ≤ BMI < 25 kg/m2), overweight (25 kg/m2 ≤ BMI < 30 kg/m2), and obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2). Linear regressions were used to assess the secular difference in BMI. Sex and age differences were also evaluated by stratified analyses.ResultsFrom 2014 to 2020, age-adjusted mean BMI increased by 0.3 kg/m2 (95% CI: 0.1, 0.5 kg/m2) in men, and 0.5 kg/m2 (95% CI: 0.2, 0.7 kg/m2) in women. Age-standardized prevalence of underweight decreased from 3.0 to 2.3% in men, and from 3.0 to 2.1% in women. Age-standardized prevalence of overweight increased in both men (from 40.1 to 41.7%) and women (from 37.8 to 39.8%), and so as obesity (men: from 4.1 to 6.1%; women: from 5.8 to 8.7%).ConclusionOur results confirmed that BMI gradually increased from 2014 to 2020. The age-adjusted mean BMI increased by 0.3 kg/m2 in older men, and 0.5 kg/m2 in older women. The age- and sex-standardized prevalence of overweight and obesity significantly increased, especially in 70–79-year age group, while the prevalence of underweight decreased. The combination of a balanced-diet and physical exercise is needed to maintain optimal BMI range for the aged population.

Trends in Cannabis Polysubstance Use During Early Pregnancy Among Patients in a Large Health Care System in Northern California

Rates of prenatal cannabis use are increasing alongside perceptions that cannabis is a harmless therapeutic for pregnancy-related ailments, while rates of prenatal use of alcohol and tobacco are decreasing. It is important to examine whether cannabis use during pregnancy is increasing similarly among patients with and patients without co-occurring substance use. To examine trends in cannabis polysubstance use during pregnancy and to test differences in cannabis use over time among pregnant individuals who use only cannabis vs those who use cannabis and other substances. This cross-sectional time-series study used data from 367 138 pregnancies among 281 590 unique pregnant patients universally screened for prenatal substance use as part of standard care in Kaiser Permanente Northern California from January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2018. Statistical analysis was performed from October 5, 2021, to April 18, 2022. Time (calendar year). Use of substances during early pregnancy was assessed via universal screening with a self-administered questionnaire (for cannabis, alcohol, stimulants, and nicotine) and/or positive results of a urine toxicology test (for cannabis, alcohol, stimulants, and pharmaceutical opioids), and data were extracted from the electronic health record. The study sample of 367 138 pregnancies from 281 590 unique pregnant patients (median gestation at time of screening, 8.6 weeks [IQR, 7.3-10.6 weeks]) was 25.9% Asian or Pacific Islander, 6.6% Black, 25.8% Hispanic, 38.0% non-Hispanic White, and 3.6% other race or ethnicity; 1.1% were aged 11 to 17 years, 14.9% were aged 18 to 24 years, 61.9% were aged 25 to 34 years, and 22.1% were aged 35 years or older; and the median neighborhood household income was $70 455 (IQR, $51 563-$92 625). From 2009 to 2018, adjusted rates of use of only cannabis during pregnancy (no other substances) increased substantially from 2.39% (95% CI, 2.20%-2.58%) in 2009 to 6.30% (95% CI, 6.00%-6.60%) in 2018, increasing at an annual relative rate of 1.11 (95% CI, 1.10-1.12). The rate of use of cannabis and 1 other substance also increased (annual relative rate, 1.04 [95% CI, 1.03-1.05]), but not as rapidly (P < .001 for difference), while the rate of use of cannabis and 2 or more other substances decreased slightly (annual relative rate, 0.97 [95% CI, 0.96-0.99]). Adjusted rates of prenatal use of cannabis and alcohol (1.04 [95% CI, 1.03-1.06]) and cannabis and stimulants (1.03 [95% CI, 1.01-1.06]) increased over time, while rates of prenatal use of cannabis and nicotine (0.97 [95% CI, 0.96-0.98]) decreased. In this cross-sectional time-series study, rates of prenatal cannabis use during early pregnancy increased significantly more rapidly among patients without co-occurring substance use, which could reflect increased acceptability of cannabis and decreased perceptions of cannabis-related harms. Furthermore, increased rates of use of cannabis with alcohol and stimulants warrant continued monitoring.

Spatio-Temporal Variation of Malaria Incidence and Risk Factors in West Gojjam Zone, Northwest Ethiopia.

Introduction:Malaria is a life-threatening acute febrile illness which is affecting the lives of millions globally. Its distribution is characterized by spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Detection of the space-time distribution and mapping high-risk areas is useful to target hot spots for effective intervention.Methods:Time series cross sectional study was conducted using weekly malaria surveillance data obtained from Amhara Public Health Institute. Poisson model was fitted to determine the purely spatial, temporal, and space-time clusters using SaTScan™ 9.6 software. Spearman correlation, bivariate, and multivariable negative binomial regressions were used to analyze the relation of the climatic factors to count of malaria incidence.Result:Jabitenan, Quarit, Sekela, Bure, and Wonberma were high rate spatial cluster of malaria incidence hierarchically. Spatiotemporal clusters were detected. A temporal scan statistic identified 1 risk period from 1 July 2013 to 30 June 2015. The adjusted incidence rate ratio showed that monthly average temperature and monthly average rainfall were independent predictors for malaria incidence at all lag-months. Monthly average relative humidity was significant at 2 months lag.Conclusion:Malaria incidence had spatial, temporal, spatiotemporal variability in West Gojjam zone. Mean monthly temperature and rainfall were directly and negatively associated to count of malaria incidence respectively. Considering these space-time variations and risk factors (temperature and rainfall) would be useful for the prevention and control and ultimately achieve elimination.

Association of Limited In-Person Attendance in US National Football League and National Collegiate Athletic Association Games With County-Level COVID-19 Cases

In 2020 and early 2021, the National Football League (NFL) and National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) opted to host football games in stadiums across the country. The in-person attendance of games varied with time and from county to county. There is currently no evidence on whether limited in-person attendance of games is associated with COVID-19 case numbers on a county-level. To assess whether NFL and NCAA football games with limited in-person attendance were associated with increased COVID-19 cases in the counties they were held compared with a matched set of counties. In this time-series cross-sectional study, every county hosting NFL or NCAA games with in-person attendance (treated group) in 2020 and 2021 was matched with a county that that did not host a game on the corresponding day but had an identical game history for up to 14 days prior (control group). A standard matching method was used to further refine this matched set so that the treated and matched control counties had similar population size, nonpharmaceutical interventions in place, and COVID-19 trends. The association of hosting games with in-person attendance with COVID-19 cases was assessed using a difference-in-difference estimator. Data were analyzed from August 29 to December 28, 2020. Hosting NFL or NCAA games. The main outcome was estimation of new COVID-19 cases per 100 000 residents at the county level reported up to 14 days after a game among counties with NFL and NCAA games with in-person attendance. A total of 528 games with in-person attendance (101 NFL games [19.1%]; 427 NCAA games [80.9%]) were included. The matching algorithm returned 361 matching sets of counties. The median (interquartile range [IQR]) number of attendance for NFL games was 9949 (6000 to 13 797) people. The median number of attendance for NCAA games was not available, and attendance was recorded as a binary variable. The median (IQR) daily new COVID-19 cases in treatment group counties hosting games was 26.14 (10.77-50.25) cases per 100 000 residents on game day. The median (IQR) daily new COVID-19 cases in control group counties where no games were played was 24.11 (9.64-48.55) cases per 100 000 residents on game day. The treatment effect size ranged from -5.17 to 4.72, with a mean (SD) of 1.21 (2.67) cases per 100 000 residents, within the 14-day period in all counties hosting the games, and the daily treatment effect trend remained relatively steady during this period. This cross-sectional study did not find a consistent increase in the daily COVID-19 cases per 100 000 residents in counties where NFL and NCAA games were held with limited in-person attendance. These findings suggest that NFL and NCAA football games hosted with limited in-person attendance were not associated with substantial risk for increased local COVID-19 cases.

Changes in Purchases for Intensive Care Medicines During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Global Time Series Study

BackgroundDrug supply disruptions have increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, especially for medicines used in the ICU. Despite reported shortages in wealthy countries, global analyses of ICU drug purchasing during COVID-19 are limited.Research QuestionHas COVID-19 impacted global drug purchases of first-, second-, and third-choice agents used in intensive care?Study Design and MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional time series study in a global pharmacy sales dataset comprising approximately 60% of the world’s population. We analyzed pandemic-related changes in units purchased per 1,000 population for 69 ICU agents. Interventional autoregressive integrated moving average models tested for significant changes when the pandemic was declared (March 2020) and during its first stage from April through August 2020, globally and by development status.ResultsRelative to 2019, ICU drug purchases increased by 23.6% (95% CI, 7.9%-37.9%) in March 2020 (P < .001) and then decreased by 10.3% (95% CI, –16.9% to –3.5%) from April through August (P = .006). Purchases for second-choice medicines changed the most, especially in developing countries (eg, 29.3% increase in March 2020). Despite similar relative changes (P = .88), absolute purchasing rates in developing nations remained low. The observed decrease from April through August 2020 was significant only in developed countries (–13.1%; 95% CI, –17.4% to –4.4%; P < .001). Country-level variation seemed unrelated to expected demand and health care infrastructure.InterpretationPurchases for intensive care medicines increased globally in the month of the COVID-19 pandemic declaration, but before peak infection rates. These changes were most pronounced for second-choice agents, suggesting that inexpensive, generic medicines may be purchased more easily in anticipation of pandemic-related ICU surges. Nevertheless, disparities in access persisted. Trends seemed unrelated to expected demand, and decreased purchasing from April through August 2020 may suggest overbuying. National and international policies are needed to ensure equitable drug purchasing during future pandemics.

Impact of changes in opioid funding and clinical policies on rapid tapering of opioids in Ontario, Canada.

Reports have emerged of abrupt tapering among recipients of long-term prescription opioids to conform new prescribing guidelines. We conducted a population-based, repeated cross-sectional time-series study among very high-dose (≥200 MME) opioid recipients in Ontario, Canada, to examine changes in the monthly prevalence of rapid tapering from 2014 to 2018, defined as recipients experiencing either a ≥50% reduction in daily doses or abrupt discontinuation sustained for 30 days. Interventional autoregressive integrated moving average models were used to test for significant changes following key guidelines and drug policies and programs. A sensitivity analysis examined rapid tapering sustained for 90 days. The monthly prevalence of rapid tapering events was stable from January 2014 to September 2016 (average monthly prevalence: 1.4%) but increased from 1.4% in October 2016 to 1.8% in April 2017 (P = 0.001), coincident with Ontario's Fentanyl Patch-for-Patch Return Program implementation. Transient spikes in the prevalence of rapid tapering also occurred 2 months after Ontario's delisting of publicly funded high-strength opioids and the release of updated Canadian Opioid Prescribing Guideline for Chronic Pain, reaching 2.3% in March 2017 and July 2017, respectively. However, this prevalence decreased to 1.2% in December 2018 (P < 0.0001). Although the prevalence of abrupt opioid discontinuation was lower, similar trends were observed. Our sensitivity analysis examining long-lasting rapid tapering found similar trends but lower prevalence, with no changes in complete discontinuation. These temporary increases in rapid tapering events highlight the need for improved communication and evidence-based resources for prescribers to minimize negative consequences of evolving policies and guidelines.

Association of Wildfire Air Pollution and Health Care Use for Atopic Dermatitis and Itch

Air pollution is a worldwide public health issue that has been exacerbated by recent wildfires, but the relationship between wildfire-associated air pollution and inflammatory skin diseases is unknown. To assess the associations between wildfire-associated air pollution and clinic visits for atopic dermatitis (AD) or itch and prescribed medications for AD management. This cross-sectional time-series study assessed the associations of air pollution resulting from the California Camp Fire in November 2018 and 8049 dermatology clinic visits (4147 patients) at an academic tertiary care hospital system in San Francisco, 175 miles from the wildfire source. Participants included pediatric and adult patients with AD or itch from before, during, and after the time of the fire (October 2018 through February 2019), compared with those with visits in the same time frame of 2015 and 2016, when no large wildfires were near San Francisco. Data analysis was conducted from November 1, 2019, to May 30, 2020. Wildfire-associated air pollution was characterized using 3 metrics: fire status, concentration of particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in diameter (PM2.5), and satellite-based smoke plume density scores. Weekly clinic visit counts for AD or itch were the primary outcomes. Secondary outcomes were weekly numbers of topical and systemic medications prescribed for AD in adults. Visits corresponding to a total of 4147 patients (mean [SD] age, 44.6 [21.1] years; 2322 [56%] female) were analyzed. The rates of visits for AD during the Camp Fire for pediatric patients were 1.49 (95% CI, 1.07-2.07) and for adult patients were 1.15 (95% CI, 1.02-1.30) times the rate for nonfire weeks at lag 0, adjusted for temperature, relative humidity, patient age, and total patient volume at the clinics for pediatric patients. The adjusted rate ratios for itch clinic visits during the wildfire weeks were 1.82 (95% CI, 1.20-2.78) for the pediatric patients and 1.29 (95% CI, 0.96-1.75) for adult patients. A 10-μg/m3 increase in weekly mean PM2.5 concentration was associated with a 7.7% (95% CI, 1.9%-13.7%) increase in weekly pediatric itch clinic visits. The adjusted rate ratio for prescribed systemic medications in adults during the Camp Fire at lag 0 was 1.45 (95% CI, 1.03-2.05). This cross-sectional study found that short-term exposure to air pollution due to the wildfire was associated with increased health care use for patients with AD and itch. These results may provide a better understanding of the association between poor air quality and skin health and guide health care professionals' counseling of patients with skin disease and public health practice.

Trends in social inequalities in breastfeeding and infant formulas in Latin American countries between the 1990 and 2010 decades.

To analyse trends of social inequality in breastfeeding and infant formula (IF) use in Latin America between 1990 and 2010 decades. Time-series cross-sectional study with data from Demographic and Health Surveys. We described the prevalence of exclusive breastfeeding (EBF), breastfeeding between 6 and 12 months (BF6-12) and IF for infants under 6 months (IF < 6) and between 6 and 12 months (IF6-12). Social inequalities were assessed using the slope index of inequality (SII) and concentration index (CIX). Trends in the prevalence of breastfeeding, IF and index of social inequality were analysed by a linear regression model with weighted least squares variance. Bolivia, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Haiti and Peru. 51·358 alive infants younger than 12 months. Five countries showed an increasing trend for EBF and BF6-12, four increased for IF < 6 and six for IF6-12. Simultaneous decrease in IF < 6 (Colombia: -0·3/year; Haiti: -0·02/year) and increase in EBF (Colombia: +2·0/year; Haiti: +1·9/year) were observed only in two countries. EBF prevalence was high in the lowest income quintiles in five countries, and IF prevalence was high in the highest income quintiles in all countries and over the decades. For BF6-12, a decrease in inequality (prevalence increased in the highest quintile) was observed in Guatemala (SII1995 = -0·42; SII2015 = -0·28) and the Dominican Republic (SII1996 = -0·54; SII2013 = -0·26). Guatemala was the only country showing a decrease in inequality for BF (SII = -0·005; CIX = -0·0035) and an increase for IF (SII = 0·022; CIX = 0·01). The inequality in BF and IF remained over time. However, inequality in IF < 6 has decreased because low-income infants have increased use and high-income infants have decreased.

Seasonal variation of diarrheal diseases and drinking water quality in resettlement colony in Delhi, India: A community-based cross-sectional study.

Seasonal variation plays an important role in the occurrence of diarrheal diseases and distinct seasonal occurrence of diarrheal diseases, with bacterial diarrhea occurring more during the warm seasons and viral diarrhea occurring during the drier cool months, has been observed due to seasonal variation. Time-series cross-sectional study was conducted from January to December 2018 among 553 under-five children to assess seasonal variation of diarrheal diseases and its association with the drinking water quality in a resettlement colony of Delhi. The prevalence of diarrhea was 40.7% and was highest during the rainy season (67.6%). Majority of the water samples were found to be unsatisfactory for human consumption during the rainy and summer seasons. Significant and moderate relationship was found between the seasonal variation and occurrence of diarrhea (r = 0.728, P < 0.05) and most probable number count (r = 0.50, P < 0.05), respectively. Understanding the environmental factors that influences the occurrence of diarrheal diseases is warranted.