Cross-national Homicide Research Articles

Modernization Theory Revised: Testing the Relationship between Inward Foreign Direct Investment and Homicide

Purpose: Modernization theory suggests that economic development is temporarily disruptive to social life and can lead to crimes of violence such as homicide. However, few studies have considered how the modernization process works. Specifically, they neglected the role of globalization. Previous research has suggested that certain measures of globalization may be theoretically linked to homicide. This study examines how inward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), a key component of globalization and economic development, is associated with cross-national homicide rates.
 Methods: Data from 101 countries were collected and analyzed to examine the relationship between inward FDI and homicide. Indirect effects of inward FDI on homicide through urbanization and economic growth were also examined.
 Results: The results show that inward foreign direct investment increases cross-national homicide rates, both directly and indirectly through increased urbanization.
 Conclusion: While economic development benefits society, the concomitant, deleterious effects should be considered by policymakers, especially those seeking inward foreign direct investment in their countries. Future researchers will want to consider examining other measures of globalization.

Region-Specific Structural Covariates of Homicide Rates in Latin America: State Legitimacy and Remittances

The goal of this study was to examine region-specific structural covariates of homicide rates in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). LAC nations possess 8% of the global population but 33% of homicides, yet the region receives limited attention in studies of social structure and violence. Prior literature suggests two separate social forces particularly relevant to the region, state legitimacy and monetary remittances. Theory from multiple fields provides distinct pathways through which each may influence LAC violence rates, suggesting a negative legitimacy-homicide association but competing hypotheses about the remittances-homicide association. Our unit of analysis was the nation-year, and our sample included 16 LAC nations between 2000 and 2018. We obtained homicide data from the World Health Organization and measures of state legitimacy and remittances from the Latinobarómetro, World Bank, and Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. Controlling for several traditional structural covariates of cross-national homicide rates, results from panel fixed effects models indicated that state legitimacy and remittances are, respectively, negatively and positively associated with LAC within-nation homicide rates over time.

Does Globalization Reduce Personal Violence? The Impact of International Trade on Cross-National Homicide Rates

AbstractWhile interest in globalization has continued to increase, few researchers have linked it to crime rates. However, if globalization has the characteristics suggested by either its supporters or detractors, it likely has a significant effect on cross-national violent crime rates. Supporters of the doux commerce (gentle commerce) thesis argue that increasing international trade decreases all types of violence, including homicide, by providing individuals with a rational interest in engaging peacefully with others, offering opportunities for cross border commerce and travel, and encouraging greater understanding of diverse cultures. By contrast, detractors argue that as globalization increases, inequality and poverty separate the economic well-being of highly industrialized core nations from that of developing peripheral nations and as this gap intensifies, it leads to crime increases. We also consider the possibility that the effects of trade globalization are either too small or too macro-level to significantly affect violent crime rates. Based on these competing arguments we examine whether homicide rates are significantly lower for countries with high levels of globalization, compared to countries with low globalization levels. We assemble a homicide database of 2145 observations over five decades, control for a wide range of alternative explanations, and test for an interaction between globalization and GDP. Consistent with the doux-commerce argument, we find that rising globalization has resulted in lower cross-national homicide rates during the past half century and that these declines are greatest for low GDP-high inequality countries. We consider the implications for theory, future research and policy.

A Review and Analysis of the Impact of Homicide Measurement on Cross-National Research

The number of cross-national homicide studies is increasing rapidly. Many scholars, however, do not consider the details of how individual nations and the four main centralized homicide data sources—raw estimates from the World Health Organization (WHO) Mortality Database, adjusted estimates from the WHO Global Health Observatory, United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, and World Bank World Development Indicators—generate national homicide rates and the impact this may have on results and the scientific record. We tested whether homicide trends, levels, and structural covariates are dependent on data source. We used 1990–2018 data in 5-year groupings and pooled them over time and nation. We utilized exploratory data analysis techniques to look for differences in homicide rates and trends. Then we employed seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) to determine whether associations with homicide of typical structural covariates were dependent on homicide data source. Finally, we examined Wald Tests to determine whether differences in the sizes of the SUR coefficients from each data source were significantly different from zero. We found differences in homicide trends and rates by data source and that associations with homicide rates of structural covariates varied in significance, magnitude, and even direction depending on homicide data source. Cross-national homicideresearch has a promising future for understanding short- and long-term global and regional trends and population-level covariates and constructing theoretical explanations for geographical and temporal variation. However, researchers must better understand how national homicide data are generated by nations and these four data sources. All four systems possess limitations, but homicide data from the WHO Mortality Database present the most attractive option.

Opioid mortality, public health care expenditures, and cross-national homicide rates: findings from 25 OECD countries, 2000-2017.

This study assesses the relationship between opioid mortality and homicide rates across 25 member countries of the organization for economic co-operation and development (OECD) over time and investigates the role of country-level public health expenditures in this relationship. Fixed effects linear regression is used to assess the longitudinal association between opioid mortality and cross-national homicide rates in 25 OECD countries between 2000 and 2017. Moderation analyses are conducted to assess the interaction between opioid mortality rates and public health expenditures per capita. Study findings revealed a positive bivariate association between opioid mortality and homicide rates. However, this association became null after controlling for public health expenditures. Moderation analyses revealed that there is a strong positive association between opioid mortality and homicide rates when public health expenditures are low, which becomes gradually weaker at higher levels of health expenditures. This study suggests one consequence of the opioid epidemic may be increased homicide rates, and this association is stronger in countries with lower public health expenditures. These findings highlight the potential role of governments to combat the associated harms of rising opioid use through greater investments in public health care.

Pitfalls of Using Data Portals as Sources for Psychological Research: The Example of Cross-National Homicide Data

Pitfalls of Using Data Portals as Sources for Psychological Research: The Example of Cross-National Homicide Data

The crime decline in cross-national context: a panel analysis of homicide rates within latent trajectory groups

ABSTRACT During the 1990s, the United States and other wealthy democracies experienced a decline in homicide rates. However, not all nations shared this trend. Despite disparate homicide patterns, researchers usually examine the average effect of correlates on homicide, potentially obscuring the impact of heterogeneity within large samples. The current study addresses this implicit homogeneity assumption by identifying three distinct latent trajectory groups of homicide trends among 77 nations from 1989 to 2010. To examine differences in the correlates of homicide trends, we analyse the impact of demographic and economic influences on homicide rates in separate fixed-effects panel regression analyses for each trajectory group as well as for the overall sample. We find that demographic and economic forces impact homicide rates differently across subsets of nations. Our findings suggest that universal explanations of 1990s cross-national homicide trends are misleading, as the same set of factors influence homicide rates differently across national contexts.

Reliability and validity of cross-national homicide data: A comparison of UN and WHO data

Data reliability and validity are methodological concerns in cross-national analyses of crime, but there is little agreement on which source of data provides the most reliable estimates. Moreover, ...

Inflation and Cross-National Homicide: Assessing Nonlinear and Moderation Effects Across 65 Countries, 1965–2015

Criminologists have long speculated that economic conditions play a role in driving crime trends. Emerging research finds that inflation rates are associated with crime rates both within the United States and cross-nationally. Inflation is hypothesized to increase crime by incentivizing illegal markets and organized criminal activity and by reducing the legitimacy of social institutions. Existing research on the association between inflation and homicide rates has been limited to single-country studies or multicountry studies consisting of developed countries only. Moreover, there has been limited attention to the potential complexity of this relationship, including whether it is nonlinear, as crime rates may only increase after a certain threshold of inflation is reached, and whether the criminogenic impact of inflation may be moderated by socioeconomic development, as developing countries are anticipated to be more adversely impacted by the criminogenic influence of inflation. Drawing on a sample of 65 economically diverse countries from 1965 to 2015, we find a positive direct relationship between inflation and homicide rates, although we do not find evidence that this association is nonlinear. Finally, contrary to expectation, we find that the inflation–homicide relationship is most impactful in countries with higher levels of development. We discuss these findings in the context of cross-national predictors of crime.

International migration and cross-national homicide: considering the role of economic development

ABSTRACT This study investigates the longitudinal relationship between international migration and homicide using a sample of 88 developed and developing countries from 1993 to 2015. Drawing on research demonstrating that (1) economic development reduces violent crime within countries, and (2) migrants often move to countries with improving economic conditions in search of better economic opportunities, we test the hypothesis that the relationship between international migration and homicide is spurious at the cross-national level, as both factors may be attributed to economic development. Using fixed-effects regression, we find that a negative direct association between international migration and homicide is explained by economic development. We conclude that an increase in international migration and a decrease in homicide may both be consequences of a broader process of development.

Perceived Inequality and Cross-National Homicide Rates

Economic inequality is a persistent structural covariate of cross-national homicide rates. The most common criminological explanation is that perceived inequality creates frustration among individuals at the lower end of the income distribution, this frustration generates latent anger, and this anger occasionally results in violence. There are reasons to question the validity of this explanation. First, the theoretical reasoning of this population-level phenomenon is reductionist, relying on individual-level explanation. Second, perceived inequality is poorly operationalized by its most common measure, the Gini index, meaning this hypothesis is never actually directly tested. Third, the Gini index is strongly correlated with inequality’s main competing economic explanation, poverty. To address these limitations we used the World Values Survey and the International Social Survey Programme to obtain national-level measures of perceived inequality that are much more consistent with the proposed theoretical construct and weakly correlated with poverty. Controlling for a range of structural covariates we found no consistent evidence of an association between population-level perceived inequality and homicide rates.

How does the welfare state reduce crime? The effect of program characteristics and decommodification across 18 OECD-countries

PurposeThe article revisits the negative effect of welfare state schemes on crime rates with a focus on the pathways of that effect. Social support theory (SST) and institutional anomie theory (IAT) are two related theoretical approaches to explain why – and how – the welfare state might prevent criminal behavior. This article tests the relevance of these theories for cross-country and over-time variation in homicide rates with more precise disaggregated welfare state indicators than used previously. MethodsWe use panel regressions with country fixed effects and data for 18 OECD countries between 1990 and 2011. Disaggregated cross-national social expenditure and benefit generosity data is used to discriminate between pathways of welfare state influence on cross-national homicide. ResultsThe welfare state suppresses crime particularly through social support via generous unemployment benefits. Overall decommodification, the key measure to test IAT, however, does not have any effect on homicide. ConclusionsOnly some welfare state interventions matter for homicide rates.

Perceived Inequality and Cross-National Homicide Rates

Economic inequality is a persistent structural covariate of cross-national homicide rates. The most common criminological explanation is that perceived inequality creates frustration among individuals at the lower end of the income distribution, this frustration generates latent anger, and this anger occasionally results in violence. There are reasons to question the validity of this explanation. First, the theoretical reasoning of this population-level phenomenon is reductionist, relying on individual-level explanation. Second, perceived inequality is poorly operationalized by its most common measure, the Gini index, meaning this hypothesis is never actually directly tested. Third, the Gini index is strongly correlated with inequality’s main competing economic explanation, poverty. To address these limitations we used the World Values Survey and the International Social Survey Programme to obtain national-level measures of perceived inequality that are much more consistent with the proposed theoretical construct and weakly correlated with poverty. Controlling for a range of structural covariates we found no consistent evidence of an association between population-level perceived inequality and homicide rates.

Latent Trajectories of Cross-National Homicide Trends: Structural Characteristics of Underlying Groups.

Relative to studies of U.S. homicide trends, few have investigated cross-national trends. We explore hidden heterogeneity across a sample of 82 nations between 1980 and 2010, and examine (a) what distinct latent trajectories are represented among these nations? and (b) what structural factors characterize these latent trajectory groups? World Health Organization mortality data were used for the trajectory analyses wherein three distinct groups were identified. Structural characteristics of each group are compared to determine which factors account for their trajectories. Characteristics that predicted group placement include a development index, divorced males, female labor force participation, and Latin American region.

Does Socioeconomic Development Explain the Association Between Seafood Consumption and Cross-National Homicide?

Biological theories of crime propose that neurological benefits from consuming omega-3 fatty acids can reduce aggressive behavior. At the macro level, prior work has found a negative bivariate association between seafood consumption and homicide rates. Using data from a sample of 82 countries, and applying both multivariate regression and structural equation modeling, we find that socioeconomic development simultaneously affects the consumption of seafood and homicide rates, generating a spurious relationship. These findings demonstrate that omitting theoretically relevant variables, as well as inferring macro-level associations from micro-level patterns, can lead to erroneous conclusions regarding support for criminological theories or criminal justice policies.

Hazardous Alcohol Drinking and Cross-National Homicide Rates: The Role of Demographic, Political, and Cultural Context

Cross-national research on the relationship between alcohol consumption and homicide focuses on (a) the amount of alcohol consumed rather than the manner of consumption and (b) the direct relationship between alcohol consumption and homicide rates. The current study addresses these limitations by considering consumption patterns rather than consumption levels and exploring whether the alcohol–homicide relationship is moderated by features of the social structure including youth population size, quality of governance, and the prevalence of drinking. Using a broad sample of 85 countries, we find no relationship between consumption levels and homicide rates. In contrast, hazardous consumption patterns were positively associated with homicide rates. Study results also suggest that the prevalence of drinking and the quality of governance moderate this relationship.

How Does Social Protection Influence Cross-National Homicide Rates in OECD Nations?

ABSTRACTSocial protection exhibits a consistent negative association with cross-national homicide rates. However, the specific mechanism through which the two are associated remains untested in spite of competing theoretical claims that include altruism, social control, buffers from market forces, and insulation from the ills associated with poverty. We explore these possible theoretical explanations, focusing on different originating sources (e.g., public or government) of social protection. Using data from nearly all countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development for 2010–14, we used ordinary least squares models to estimate these associations. The results indicate that the possible mechanisms through which social protection is associated with homicide are public and both direct and indirect.

Reliability and validity of cross-national homicide data: a comparison of UN and WHO data

ABSTRACTData reliability and validity are methodological concerns in cross-national analyses of crime, but there is little agreement on which source of data provides the most reliable estimates. Moreover, few studies have examined the potential threat to validity posed by unclassified deaths. The current study aims to (1) assess the reliability of cross-national homicide data from the United Nations (UN) and the World Health Organization (WHO); and (2) investigate the impact of unclassified deaths on the validity of WHO data. Findings indicate that UN and WHO homicide rates (n=56) differ in magnitude, but produce similar outcomes. The UN data produce more robust results and statistical models with less error. The WHO data are more stable and reliable over time, and better suited for longitudinal analyses. Analyses drawing on WHO data should not disregard unclassified deaths because their inclusion provides a more accurate estimate of the true number of homicides.

The Belief in State Legitimacy and Homicide: A Cross-National Analysis

ABSTRACTThis study examines whether perceived state legitimacy contributes to the variation in the level of homicide across countries. I perform a statistical test of this relationship by creating a new cross-national time series data set of 86 countries. The analysis suggests a strong, negative, and robust relationship between widespread belief in state legitimacy and the homicide rate, controlling for the level of democracy and other relevant variables. The results provide evidence that subjective measures of state legitimacy are an important determinant of cross-national homicide rates, independent of the characteristics of the state.

Where Poverty Matters: Examining the Cross-national Relationship Between Economic Deprivation and Homicide

Recent research on the role of economic deprivation in explaining cross-national homicide rates is inconsistent. These inconsistencies may be attributed to the use of samples composed primarily of developed countries, and the implicit assumption that the impact of deprivation is constant throughout the homicide distribution. The current study challenges this assumption and suggests a dynamic relationship between deprivation and homicide. Using a broad sample of 148 countries this work applies quantile regression to examine whether inequality and poverty have consistent impacts across the entire homicide distribution. Results indicate that inequality and homicide have a universal positive relationship. In contrast, poverty is only related to homicide in countries with lower homicide rates. Findings are discussed within the context of strain theory.