Cross-border Links Research Articles

Cybercriminal Networks and Operational Dynamics of Business Email Compromise (BEC) Scammers: Insights from the “Black Axe” Confraternity

ABSTRACT I explored the relationship between the “Black Axe” Confraternity and cybercrime, with a particular emphasis on the structural dynamics of the Business Email Compromise (BEC) schemes. I investigated whether a conventional hierarchical system governs the membership and remuneration for BEC roles as perpetrators by interviewing an accused “leader” of the “Black Axe” affiliated cybercriminal incarcerated in a prominent Western nation. I supplemented the analysis of interview data with insights from tapped phone records monitored by a law enforcement entity. I merged Actor-network theory and Social Network theory as analytical frameworks and thematically analyzed data to produce six overarching themes: (1) The fluidity of Structure and Adaptive Roles in BEC, (2) Challenges in Visualizing Criminal Networks, (3) Globalization and Transnational Dimensions, (4) Social and Cultural Influences, (5) Internal Cybersecurity Threats and Money Laundering, and (6) Remuneration and Influences of Cryptocurrency, casting a brighter light on the topic. Unlike traditional organized crime, BEC scammers have adopted a nonhierarchical model that is flexible and fluid. I found no evidence of a rigid hierarchy dictating positions and remuneration for BEC roles. Instead, I observed that cybercriminals involved in BEC activities functioned horizontally, promoting fluidity, maneuverability, collaboration, and specialization across various facets of their illicit pursuits. I also highlighted the cross-border links BEC offenders have with other criminal actors facilitated by Black Axe organizational machinery. My research adds value to the existing body of knowledge, utilizing a unique dataset comprising direct testimonies of a high-profile BEC offender affiliated with the ‘hard–to–access,’ Black Axe gang.

PREVENTION OF LEGALISATION (LAUNDERING) OF CRIMINAL PROCEEDS IN THE MECHANISM OF ENSURING ECONOMIC SECURITY OF THE STATE

The purpose of the article is to consider the nature and content of economic security as a component of national security of the state; to determine the peculiarities of implementation of a criminal illegal intention to commit legalisation (laundering) of criminally obtained property; to establish the main destructive features of legalisation (laundering) of criminally obtained property and their correlation with economic security of the state; to define the actual means of prevention of legalisation (laundering) of criminally obtained property in the mechanism of ensuring economic security of the state. A scientific discussion of the problem of ensuring the economic security of the country by reducing the risks of legalisation (laundering) of criminally acquired property is presented. The regulatory and programme documents in the field of ensuring economic security have been characterised. The nature and content of economic security as a component of the state's national security were determined. Statistical reporting of law enforcement bodies in terms of detection, investigation and prevention of predicate offences and direct legalisation (laundering) of criminally acquired property was analysed. The authors emphasise the need to improve the system of timely detection of economic risks and threats in order to avoid regulatory, supervisory, organisational and managerial gaps that facilitate both the commission of predicate criminal offences and direct legalisation of the proceeds of crime. Results. It has been established that the essence and content of economic security as a component of the state's national security consists in such functional features as: 1) ensuring the implementation of full cycle production as a means of increasing the level of resource efficiency of the economy; 2) providing foreign and domestic trade infrastructure as a means of increasing the institutional economic capacity of the state; 3) ensuring the investment attractiveness of the state as a means of improving the foreign and domestic economic policy of the state (investment and reinvestment processes); 4) ensuring economic stimulation for the systematisation of innovative renewal of the products of the activities of business entities; 5) ensuring control over labour migration in order to retain qualified specialists; 6) ensuring protection against economic crimes; 7) ensuring the development and competitiveness of the stock market. The specifics of the implementation of the criminal illegal intention to commit legalisation (laundering) of criminally obtained property have been differentiated: 1) multi-stage, which implies the presence of a complex mechanism of criminally illegal behaviour, often aimed at achieving several goals united by a single intention; 2) a list of possible predicate offences, which are fundamental in terms of property legalisation (laundering); 3) committing a criminal offence as part of an organised group/criminal organisation; 4) involving partners in crime with interregional and cross-border links; 5) ensuring the latency of predicate offences through legalisation (laundering) of criminally acquired property. Modern methods of prevention of legalisation (laundering) of criminally acquired property in the mechanism of ensuring economic security of the state have been proposed: 1) differentiation of legalisation (laundering) of criminally acquired property as an economic and criminal offence based on the object of intervention in/outside the predicate socially dangerous acts; 2) improvement of financial monitoring and registration procedures related to the acquisition of property rights and other economic transactions; 3) a fundamental departure from the generalisation of measures aimed at de-shadowing the economy (taking into account the object of de-shadowing); 4) elimination of shortcomings in economic procedural legislation, which often creates a field for fictitious bankruptcy; 5) elimination of shortcomings in criminal legislation, by revising the sanction of Art. 209 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine.

ODNOS NACIONALNIH DRŽAVLJANSTAVA I GRAĐANSTVA EUROPSKE UNIJE U PRAKSI SUDA EU-a

The citizenship of the Union, established by the Maastricht Treaty, became, by virtue of CJEU case law, a fundamental status of nationals of the Member States enabling those who find themselves in the same situation to enjoy the same treatment in law irrespective of their nationality. The paper aims to research how the CJEU expanded the EU law application by using the citizenship of the Union and where it set the limits to this expansion. To this end, following the introductory part of the paper, the issues of acquisition and loss of Union citizenship have been analysed. The third part of the paper researches into the CJEU case law regarding expansion of EU law application through the citizenship of the Union. This expansion was first conducted by eliminating both economic and cross-border links as conditio sine qua non of EU law application. The fourth part of the paper considers the possibility of emancipation of EU citizenship from the concept of Member State nationality regarding relevant TEU and TFEU provisions and CJEU case law. Finally, the paper concludes that CJEU has greatly encouraged the expansion of citizenship of the Union but has also limited this expansion by attaching it to national citizenship, which is in line with relevant TEU and TFEU provisions.

Impacts and Lessons Learned of the First Three COVID-19 Waves on Cross-Border Collaboration in the Field of Emergency Medical Services and Interhospital Transports in the Euregio-Meuse-Rhine: A Qualitative Review of Expert Opinions.

BackgroundIn the Euregio-Meuse-Rhine (EMR), cross-border collaboration is essential for resource-saving and needs-based patient care within the emergency medical service (EMS) systems and interhospital transport (IHT). However, at the onset of the novel coronavirus SARS-COV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic, differing national measures highlighted the fragmentation within the European Union (EU) in its various approaches to combating the pandemic. To assess the consequences of the pandemic in the EMR border area, the aim of this study was to analyze the effects and “lessons learned” regarding cross-border collaboration in EMS and IHT.MethodA qualitative study with 22 semi-structured interviews was carried out. Experts from across the EMR area, including the City of Aachen, the City region of Aachen, the District of Heinsberg (Germany), South Limburg (The Netherlands), and the Province of Limburg, as well as Liège (Belgium), took part. The interviews were coded and analyzed according to changes in cross-border collaboration before and during the pandemic, as well as lessons learned and recommendations.ResultsEach EU member country within the EMR area, addressed the pandemic individually with national measures. Cross-border collaboration between regional actors was hardly or not at all addressed at the national level during political decision- or policymaking. Previous direct communication at the personal level was replaced by national procedures, which made regular cross-border collaboration significantly more difficult. The cross-border transfer regulations of patients with COVID-19 proved to be complex and led, among other things, to patients being transported to hospitals far outside the border region. Collaboration continues to be seen as valuable and Euregional emergency services including hospitals work well together, albeit to different degrees. The information and data exchange should, however, be more transparent to use resources more efficiently.ConclusionEffective Euregional collaboration of emergency services is imperative for public safety in a multi-border region with strong economic, cultural, and social cross-border links. Our findings indicate that existing (pre-pandemic) structures which included regular meetings of senior managerial staff in the region and a number of thematic working groups were helpful to deal with and to compensate for the disruptions during the crisis. Regional cross-border agreements that are currently based on mutual but more or less informal arrangements need to be formalized and better promoted and recognized also at the national and EU level to increase resilience. The continuous determination of synergies and good and best practices are further approaches to support cross-border collaboration especially in preparation for future crises.

The uneasy new status quo in Nagorno-Karabakh

The security situation in Nagorno-Karabakh has remained tense since the end of a six-week war between Armenia and Azerbaijan that ended with a Russian-brokered ceasefire in November 2020. Azerbaijan regained control of territories that it had lost in the 1990s, and continued during much of 2021 to assert itself with regard to other territorial claims along its border with Armenia and to push diplomatically for the reopening of cross-border transport links. Turkey’s involvement in the war on the side of Azerbaijan was significant, and the outcome resolved issues that in the past had prevented Turkey from normalising relations with Armenia. Negotiations between Ankara and Yerevan over normalisation are now under way.

Троцкисты в Восточной Пруссии: «история в осколках»

Based on little-known and unpublished sources from the “Trotsky Archive” at the Harvard University’s Hogton Library, the German Federal Archives (Berlin) and the Russian State Archive of Social and Political History (Moscow), the article for the first time reconstructs the history of the United Left Opposition groups of the German Communist Party (Bolshevik-Leninists) in East Prussia in 1930-1933. The research highlights the figures of the Königsberg group, some of whom (e. g. Gustav Plep and Oskar Seipold) were active not only regionally, but also at the all-German level. The author describes the political activities of the leftist opposition (holding discussion evenings, sending circular letters to small towns in East Prussia, distributing leaflets at workers’ gatherings, etc.), and shows how local Trotskyists were influenced by conflicts between the leaders of the United Left Opposition - Roman Well, Anton Grylewicz, Kurt Landau and Oskar Seipold. The article considers some cross-border links of Trotskyists with groups in Poland. The study of this topic makes it possible to broaden the understanding of the development of the German Trotskyist movement in its regional perspective and to look differently at the political landscape of East Prussia, in which various opposition groups existed alongside the official parties.

Friend or Foe? Cross-Border Links, Contagious Banking Crises, and Joint Use of Macroprudential Policies

In this study, we examine whether the joint use of macroprudential policies by countries that have strong financial or trade links can help slow the spread of a banking crisis from country to country. Research has shown that a financial crisis in one country is more likely to be “contagious” if that country has strong connections with other countries through trade or financial linkages. While macroprudential policies can be used to mitigate the risk of a financial crisis domestically, we find that the implementation of tighter macroprudential policies in closely linked countries can additionally help to lower the increases in real credit growth and house prices (known precursors to a crisis). As well, it can also lower the probability of a domestic banking crisis, even after controlling for these precursors, although this effect could take a couple of years to materialize. This paper sheds light on the potential for coordinated usage of macroprudential policies to help promote global financial stability.

SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONES, THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE AND THE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF KACHIN STATE

Kachin individuals and organizations operate within a dense and complex web of domestic and cross-border links that integrate them into a series of network relationships with communities around them. Problems with governance, lack of ability in terms of nation-building and the prevalence of high-risk economic activities have been some of the factors that have constrained economic growth for the State, which represents a similar situation for other spatially outlying people of Myanmar such as the Naga and the Chin. Some limited attempts have been made to create coherent economic organizations so as to help to promote peaceful governance of the land and the needed replacement of opium growing offers an opportunity for cash crop production and exporting that has been successfully exploited elsewhere. However, limitations to the labour force and to resource management capability mean that endogenous economic development is a very limited prospect. An available alternative to internal development is to be the recipient of externally imposed developmental initiatives. Notable among these initiatives is an industrial park or a special economic zone to be built by Chinese capital, such as the proposed Kanpiketi border park. Such an initiative would take its place alongside existing and proposed Chinese projects in Kyaukphyu, Yangon and elsewhere, which have achieved mixed levels of success. Is it possible that such projects, as part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative outreach program, could offer meaningful and sustainable improvement to the standard of living of people in Kachin State? If so, what would be the impact of a new mode of economic activity on existing patterns of Kachin ways of life? This paper uses a case study approach rooted in management science to investigate the possibilities of these initiatives with a view to understanding the potential of such changes.

Promoting better economics, renewables and CO2 reduction through trade: A case study for the Eastern Africa Power Pool

Cross-border power trade in the Eastern Africa Power Pool (EAPP) has been very low for nearly 15 years since its inception in 2005. This analysis uses a least-cost generation and transmission capacity expansion model to assess economic and CO2 emissions reduction benefits from different levels of integration. These benefits are assessed for several policy scenarios around renewable energy, national energy security and CO2 emission reduction targets. In addition, we have explored if major drought events may significantly alter the benefits of trade. The World Bank Electricity Planning Model (EPM) is used to represent 11 countries in the EAPP, Eritrea, South Sudan (and SAPP as an external system) for 2020–2030 including all existing, committed and planned generation and interconnectors. Our analysis shows encouraging prospects for EAPP to potentially gain $7.6 billion from a “Shallow” level of integration wherein countries retain their national plans and interconnections are limited to existing and already committed transmission links. A “Tight” integration that requires generation and (new) interconnection plans to be optimized at a regional level, would increase benefits to $18.6 billion. Tight integration would be most efficient in meeting a 30% CO2 emission reduction target by 2030 retaining $11.8 billion of benefits. This CO2 target can be met at 3.8 times lower cost of $6.6 billion compared to the $25.7 billion needed to meet the target in the Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario of very low trade. We find that imposing a 20% upper limit on imports would still retain 80% of the benefits that allays a large part of the concerns around national energy security. We have also simulated extreme droughts that may reduce benefits of trade due to 20%–30% lower hydro availability from hydro dominated systems like Ethiopia. This indeed affects the benefits of a Shallow integration although more than 60% of base case benefits are still retained. Higher flexibility of a Tight integration, on the other hand, allows for a benefit retention of 89% or more, by adjusting flow volumes and directions of trade. A Tight integration renders a greater ability to the system to reduce the impact of major droughts and meet policy constraints including CO2 emission and import restrictions at a lower cost, due to the intrinsic flexibility of a stronger and wider network. Since all these issues are very realistic, the additional investments in major cross-border links and institutional challenges should be addressed to achieve significant benefits over the medium term. Overall, our exploration of the key facets of trade in EAPP suggests an overwhelmingly positive case for trade pointing to a rapid increase in trade volume by an order of magnitude over the next decade.

Profit-shifting through Panama Papers destinations: A case study for the Czech Republic

This paper exploits firm-level data from the ORBIS database to identify international tax planning by the Czech multinational enterprises (MNEs) through Panama Papers destinations. Profit shifting is measured by comparing a tax payable per unit of profits of the Czech MNEs having links to the Panama Papers destinations with the results of the same indicator of the Czech non-multinational entities i.e., without any cross-border links and thus without any profit shifting opportunities. Results are based on the sample of 116,312 entities and provide evidence about the importance of the Panama Papers destinations in profit-shifting from the Czech Republic. Overall, the estimated base erosion ranges from EUR 159 up to EUR 2.92 mil., which corresponds up to approximately CZK 14 mil. of corporate tax revenues losses. Results also show that anonymous ownership and financial secrecy play an important role in the world economy and contribute to the tax planning and profit shifting.

Profit-shifting through Panama Papers destinations: a case study for the Czech Republic

This paper exploits firm-level data from the ORBIS database to identify international tax planning by the Czech multinational enterprises (MNEs) through Panama Papers destinations. Profit shifting is measured by comparing a tax payable per unit of profits of the Czech MNEs having links to the Panama Papers destinations with the results of the same indicator of the Czech non-multinational entities i.e., without any cross-border links and thus without any profit shifting opportunities. Results are based on the sample of 116,312 entities and provide evidence about the importance of the Panama Papers destinations in profit-shifting from the Czech Republic. Overall, the estimated base erosion ranges from EUR 159 up to EUR 2.92 mil., which corresponds up to approximately CZK 14 mil. of corporate tax revenues losses. Results also show that anonymous ownership and financial secrecy play an important role in the world economy and contribute to the tax planning and profit shifting.

Oceans Apart? China And Other Systemically Important Economies

For at least a decade, in policy circles, China has been considered a systemically important economy. As policy makers worldwide grapple with sluggish growth there is relatively little evidence about the extent to which the G4, which consists of the US, the Eurozone, Japan, and China, as a block contributes to global economic performance in a fashion that is not observed when China is omitted or treated as exogenous perhaps because of its status as an emerging market economy. We estimate a series of panel factor VARs because these seem best suited to exploit cross-border links and determine the relative impact of domestic and global factors. Most importantly, we conclude that domestic and global shocks can reinforce each other. We also conclude it is essential to treat China on a level playing field with the US, the Eurozone and Japan if we are to better understand how shocks among these economies interact with each other. In addition, domestic monetary shocks have no global real effects. However, these same shocks lead to a modest global loosening of monetary policy and financial conditions. Global monetary shocks explain up to 60% of variation in commodity demand and real economic conditions. We conclude that there is scope for net benefits from greater policy cooperation.

Long-term correlations in short, non-stationary time series: An application to international R&D collaborations

Abstract Within the perimeter of patent collaboration networks, the average distance of collaborations and the number of countries involved per each collaboration have been shown to have increased steadily in time. Less attention, though, has been devoted to assessing whether this growth of cross-country collaborations is stable in time. To address this scientific question we focus on the identification of long-term correlations (i.e. temporal persistence). Our data set consists of time series of yearly average collaboration radii and of cross-border links in the Euro-American subsystem of the global collaboration network for the period 1978–2014. To investigate the fundamental persistence properties of these time series, we use Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, a method that allows us to measure long-term correlations in detrended signals. Also, we devise a general and original procedure to assess the statistical significance of results for short time series. Our results, showing that long-term correlations do exist in the majority of our signals, reinforce the hypothesis of a diminishing role of geographical distance in technological collaborations. Results at national level show that a significant degree of heterogeneity in persistence parameters can be detected within Europe, irrespectively of the efforts towards the set-up of an integrated European Research Area.

A social network analysis of cooperation in forest, mining and tourism industries in the Finnish–Russian cross-border region: connectivity, hubs and robustness

ABSTRACTIn this article the distribution and intensity of cross-border cooperation (CBC) networks are tested with primary survey and interview data collected from the Finnish–Russian cross-border region. The study concentrates on the cross-border connectivity of three regionally significant and interlocking sectors (forest, mining and tourism industries together with associated research and administrative organisations) with varying strategies towards natural resource use. The collected data were examined by applying social network analysis tools developed for cross-border contexts. The results depict varying landscapes of CBC depending on the type (firms, research and administrative organisations) of the surveyed actors. Overall the studied CBC network is weakly developed with low firm-level participation and low integration between the sectors – a weakness in the sustainable utilisation of natural resources. Local administrative and research organisations are the network hubs in the studied cross-border region. As apositive note, the CBC network is not solely reliant on these few network hubs but also consists of several moderately connected cross-border actors that increase its robustness against cross-border network failures. The emergence of new and the deepening of the existing cross-border links between the industries would be pivotal for good policy design regarding local land-use and natural resource use policies.Abbreviations: CBC: Cross-border cooperation; CBR: Cross-border region; NGO: Non-governmental organisation; SNA: Social network analysis

Kurdayetî: Pan-Kurdish Solidarity and Cross-Border Links in Times of War and Trauma

The advance of ISIL amid the horrors of the Syrian civil war has given impetus to the forging of political solidarity among Kurds across international borders. This article examines Kurdayetî, pan-Kurdish identification, and the way in which it is shaped by ongoing crises in the Middle East. Amid chaotic events, previously divided Kurdish populations have increased cross-border interaction and co-operation. In northern Syria, Kobani became a bellwether of pan-Kurdish hopes and fears, and a rallying point, with peshmerga from Iraqi Kurdistan passing through Turkey to help relieve the ISIL siege of the city. Meanwhile, Kurdish political groups, particularly the PYD in Syria and the Kurdistan Regional Government, have made strategic gains, raising prospects, in some quarters, of Kurdish independence. Kurdish military forces also have won international recognition (and some logistical support) for the significant role they have played in fighting ISIL. This, in turn, has heightened concerns among regional states, chiefly Turkey, which is traditionally wary of political advances for the Kurds. This article incorporates ethnographic data gathered in 2014 and 2015 in Diyarbakır and Istanbul, to analyze the surge in pan-Kurdish solidarity, confidence and political assertiveness, and the implications these have for the Kurds and the states that surround them.

The technodiplomacy of Iberian transnational railways in the second half of the nineteenth century

In the second half of the nineteenth century Portugal undertook an ambitious public works programme in order to develop the kingdom. In that programme, railways took a leading role, especially those routes that linked the main ports of the shoreline to Spain (and thence to France). To do so, a strenuous effort of diplomacy – or more specifically technodiplomacy – was required to convince Spain to accept cross-border links that served the goals of Portugal. In this paper I will analyse this technodiplomatic process and how two countries with different technological perceptions of railways managed to settle their differences and build five transnational links across their borders over the course of 40 years. I aim to add to the debate about the Iberian cross-border links from the point of view of the history of technology, in particular, and to the discussion about transnational technological systems, in general.

THE ROLE OF TRANSNATIONAL BANKS IN THE TRANSMISSION OF GLOBAL SYSTEMIC RISK

Introduction. One of the manifestations of financial globalization is the formation and development of cross-border links of transnational banks. This expands opportunities for investment and contributes to the economic development of many countries. At the same time, the increasing complexity of financial ties strengthens the cross-border interdependence of transnational banks, leading to the transfer of financial shocks that arise in some countries to others. The purpose. The article aims to explore the role of multinational banks in the transmission of global systemic risk, identify existing problems supervision of multinational banks as globally systemically important financial institutions and identify solutions. Results. The article deals with the processes of transmission by transnational banks of global systemic risk in the framework of the “theory of infection of financial markets”. The influence of the “general creditor effect” on the spread of crisis phenomena between the economies of different countries is analyzed. The direction of influence of cross-border links of transnational banks on financial stability of the banking system of the country is clarified. Approaches to the identification of globally systemically important banks have been highlighted in accordance with international practice, and tasks have been identified to strengthen regulation and supervision of the activities of transnational banks. Conclusion. Today, regulators have limited ability to prevent the transmission of global systemic risk multinational banks. Many institutional mechanisms exist at national level and aimed at maintaining the financial stability of banking systems and crisis management of banks, there are no globally. However, only coordinated decisions on measures of overcoming the crisis can ensure effective implementation of anti-crisis programs globally

ЖИЗНЬ ПОВЕРХ ГРАНИЦ КОНФЛИКТА: СОЦИАЛЬНО-ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ АСПЕКТЫ ТРАНСГРАНИЧНОГО ВЗАИМОДЕЙСТВИЯ ВНУТРИ РАЗДЕЛЕННЫХ ГОРОДОВ (НА ПРИМЕРЕ БЕНДЕР И ДУБОССАР)

This article concerns with the specific character of cross-border links between the cities of Bendery and Dubossary separated by pseudo-state border. Despite the general statement of local authorities of Moldova and Transnistria that cross-border cooperation is almost absent now, in reality it is wide spread at the local level – to a greater extent between citizens and to a less extent between local authorities in the sphere of housing, transportation, social security, education, health, trade, and etc. Politically and ideologically partitioned cities of Bendery and Dubossary paradoxically remain complex in the context of everyday life. Emerging integral “cross-border landscapes” seem to be a good proving ground for testing possible methods for resolution of political conflict, which has inspired the appearance of the pseudo-state border. Removing the contradictions that exist today between Moldova and Transnistria at the zones of their direct contacts, in particular inside the divided cities, may mark a good start for further gradual “step-by-step” negotiation of the conflict.

Integrated North Sea grids: The costs, the benefits and their distribution between countries

A large number of offshore wind farms and interconnectors are expected to be constructed in the North Sea region over the coming decades, creating substantial opportunities for the deployment of integrated network solutions. Creating interconnected offshore grids that combine cross-border links and connections of offshore plants to shore offers multiple economic and environmental advantages for Europe's energy system. However, despite evidence that integrated solutions can be more beneficial than traditional radial connection practices, no such projects have been deployed yet. In this paper we quantify costs and benefits of integrated projects and investigate to which extent the cost-benefit sharing mechanism between participating countries can impede or encourage the development of integrated projects. Three concrete interconnection case studies in the North Sea area are analysed in detail using a national-level power system model. Model outputs are used to compute the net benefit of all involved stakeholders under different allocation schemes. Given the asymmetric distribution of costs and benefits, we recommend to consistently apply the Positive Net Benefit Differential mechanism as a starting point for negotiations on the financial closure of investments in integrated offshore infrastructure.

The benefits of integrating European electricity markets

The European Commission's Target Electricity Model (TEM) aims to integrate EU electricity markets. This paper estimates the potential benefit of coupling interconnectors to increase the efficiency of trading day-ahead, intra-day and balancing services across borders. Further gains are possible by eliminating unscheduled flows and avoiding the curtailment of renewables with better market design. In the short run the gains could be as high as €3.9billion/yr, more than 100% of the current gains from trade. About one-quarter of this total comes from day-ahead coupling and another third from shared balancing. If shared balancing is so valuable, completing the TEM becomes more urgent, and regulators should ensure these gains are paid to interconnectors to make the needed investment in the cross-border links more commercially profitable.