Cross-border Coordination Research Articles

Cross-border supply chain coordination of low-carbon agricultural products under the risk of supply uncertainty.

The purpose of this paper is to discuss how cross-border e-commerce enterprises can promote the sustainable development of the supply chain by optimizing the risk of supply disruption and product quality control mechanism of the cross-border supply chain of low-carbon agricultural products in the face of the problem of uneven quality and inventory shortage that prevails in the supply chain of low-carbon agricultural products under the framework of low-carbon economy. Methods: A two-level supply chain model consisting of a risk-averse cross-border e-commerce enterprise and two risk-neutral overseas suppliers is constructed to compare the optimal strategies and their coordination effects under the centralized and decentralized decision-making modes, and to deeply analyze the supply chain's operation mechanism. Further, the quality cost factor is introduced and an option contract model is designed to quantitatively analyze the impact of different decision-making scenarios and parameter changes on the overall supply chain performance. The results of the study show that under the coordination of option contract, the profit of cross-border e-commerce companies tends to decrease as the risk of supply disruption increases, while the profit of suppliers rises accordingly. Meanwhile, improving the quality of agricultural products can significantly improve the overall profitability of the supply chain. The cost-sharing mechanism is positively related to the profit of cross-border e-commerce companies, but negatively affects the profit of suppliers. In addition, the adjustment of the option price is directly associated with the increase of the specific supplier's profit and the decrease of the cross-border e-commerce enterprise's profit. Conclusion: By constructing and analyzing the option contract model considering the risk of supply disruption, this study effectively reveals the key influencing factors and their interactions in the cross-border supply chain of low-carbon agricultural products, and provides cross-border e-commerce enterprises with specific strategies to achieve coordination of the supply chain contract, improve product quality, and mitigate the risk of supply disruption, and then promote the sustainable development of the supply chain of low-carbon agricultural products.

Breaking Down Barriers: Preparing Africa's Insurance Market for AfCFTA Success

This article examines the regulatory challenges that affect the readiness of the African insurance sector for expansion and integration under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) framework. Employing a mixed-methods research design, the study integrates qualitative interviews with senior industry executives and quantitative survey data from key stakeholders to identify and evaluate the primary regulatory barriers impeding market preparedness. The analysis reveals several critical obstacles, including regulatory fragmentation, inconsistent enforcement of standards, and inadequate cross-border coordination. The findings suggest that addressing these challenges is crucial for realizing the full potential of AfCFTA in the insurance sector. The article concludes by providing strategic recommendations aimed at fostering regulatory coherence, enhancing market readiness, and supporting sustainable growth across Africa’s insurance markets.

Analyzing the Challenges of Cross-Border Disaster Response and Management: A European Perspective

This study investigates the challenges of cross-border disaster response and management in Europe, with a focus on legal and administrative barriers, cultural and linguistic differences, and existing frameworks and protocols. It seeks to understand their impact on the effectiveness of disaster management and identify areas for improvement. A quantitative approach was employed using a descriptive research design. A sample of 233 disaster management experts in Greece, representative of Europe, participated in the study. Data were collected through a well-designed questionnaire and analyzed using multiple regression analysis. The study found that in Europe, administrative and legislative obstacles seriously obstruct efficient cross-border catastrophe response and management. Although cultural and language differences have a statistically significant detrimental effect, hey equally have less of an effect overall. The current structures and procedures for cross-border disaster coordination positively impact the efficiency of catastrophe management. The study emphasizes how crucial it is to remove administrative and legal obstacles to improve cross-border catastrophe response throughout Europe. It implies that more efficient resource sharing systems, unified legal frameworks, and streamlined administrative processes are required. Furthermore, the impact of linguistic and cultural disparities can be lessened by fostering cultural awareness and multilingualism. To increase the efficacy of disaster management, the study recommends strengthening and standardize current frameworks and procedures. From a European perspective, this study offers insightful information about the difficulties involved in responding to cross-border disasters. It offers practitioners and policymakers evidence-based suggestions to improve coordination and response effectiveness, which will ultimately improve disaster management in Europe and beyond.

Risk perception and vulnerability of communities in Nepal to transboundary glacial lake outburst floods from Tibet, China

Transboundary glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) pose severe risks to downstream communities and infrastructure across international borders. However, previous GLOF research has largely overlooked the transboundary aspects of national and sub-national level GLOFs, focusing instead mostly on inventorying glacial lakes and assessing their hazards. The lack of cross-border coordination could have dire consequences for vulnerable communities and potential disaster preparedness. Assessing risk perception and vulnerability among downstream populations exposed to GLOFs is crucial for effective disaster risk reduction and management. This study examined the risk perception and vulnerabilities of Nepali communities in Bhotekoshi/Sunkoshi (Poiqu in Tibet) and Trishuli (Gyirong in Tibet) river basins, exposed to transboundary GLOFs originating from Tibetan basins. Household-level data were collected from 90 respondents in the villages along those two basins. The findings highlight high risk perception in the Bhotekoshi basin and medium perception in the Trishuli basin, along with corresponding vulnerability levels. Key factors influencing risk perception and vulnerability are explored, emphasizing the need for public awareness and policy formulation at national and regional levels. To reduce vulnerability to transboundary GLOFs, extending early warning systems, enhancing cross-border cooperation, supporting socioeconomically disadvantaged populations, and ensuring resilient infrastructure are essential.

Malaria elimination and the need for intensive inter-country cooperation: a critical evaluation of regional technical co-operation in Southern Africa

BackgroundMalaria elimination requires closely co-ordinated action between neighbouring countries. In Southern Africa several countries have reduced malaria to low levels, but the goal of elimination has eluded them thus far. The Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) Malaria Elimination Eight (E8) initiative was established in 2009 between Angola, Botswana, Eswatini, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe to coordinate malaria interventions aiming to eliminate malaria by 2030. Cross-border coordination is important in malaria elimination settings as it strengthens surveillance, joint planning and implementation, knowledge exchange and optimal use of resources. This paper describes how this collaboration is realized in practice, its achievements and challenges, and its significance for malaria elimination prospects.MethodsThe ministers of health of the E8 countries oversee an intergovernmental technical committee supported by specialist working groups consisting of technical personnel from member countries and partner institutions. These technical working groups are responsible for malaria elimination initiatives in key focus areas such as surveillance, vector control, diagnosis, case management, behaviour change and applied research. The technical working groups have initiated and guided several collaborative projects which lay essential groundwork for malaria elimination.ResultsThe E8 collaboration has yielded achievements in the following key areas. (1) Establishment and evaluation of malaria border health posts to improve malaria services in border areas and reduce malaria among resident and, mobile and migrant populations. (2) The development of a regional malaria microscopy slide bank providing materials for diagnostic training and proficiency testing. (3) A facility for regional external competency assessment and training of malaria microscopy trainers in collaboration with the World Health Organization. (4) Entomology fellowships that improved capacity in entomological surveillance; an indoor residual spraying (IRS) training of trainers’ scheme to enhance the quality of this core intervention in the region. (5) Capacity development for regional malaria parasite genomic surveillance. (6) A mechanism for early detection of malaria outbreak through near real time reporting and a quarterly bulletins of malaria incidence in border districts.ConclusionsThe E8 technical working groups system embodies inter-country collaboration of malaria control and elimination activities. It facilitates sustained interaction between countries through a regional approach. The groundwork for elimination has been laid, but the challenge will be to maintain funding for collaboration at this level whilst reducing reliance on international donors and to build capacities necessary to prepare for malaria elimination.

Process-driven susceptibility assessment of glacial lake outburst debris flow in the Himalayas under climate change

Global warming is causing glaciers to retreat and glacial lakes to expand in the Himalayas, which amplifies the risk of glacial lake outburst debris flows (GLODFs) and poses a significant threat to downstream lives and infrastructures. However, the complex interplay between GLODF occurrences and associated indicators, coupled with the lack of a comprehensive susceptibility indicator system that considers the entire GLODF process, presents a substantial challenge in assessing GLODF susceptibility in the Himalayas. This study proposes a process-driven GLODF susceptibility assessment indicator system responding to climate change that considers the complete process of GLODF formation, incorporating relevant parameters about upstream, themselves, and downstream of glacial lakes. Furthermore, to mitigate subjective factors associated with traditional evaluation methods, we developed three novel hybrid machine-learning models by integrating classic machine-learning algorithms with the whale optimization algorithm (WOA) to delineate the distribution of GLODF susceptibility in the Himalayas. All the hybrid models effectively predicted the GLODFs occurrence, with the WOA-SVC model demonstrating the highest prediction accuracy. Approximately 34% of the catchments exhibit high and very high susceptibility levels, primarily concentrated along the north and south sides of the Himalayan ridge, particularly in the eastern and central Himalayas. Indicators capturing the physical formation process of hazards, such as topographic potential (highest relative importance value of 40%), can precisely identify GLODF. A total of 128 catchments pose potential transboundary threats, with 24 classified as having a very high susceptibility level and 25 as having a high susceptibility level. Notably, the border region between China and Nepal is a prominent hotspot for transboundary threats of GLODF. These findings can provide valuable clues for disaster prevention, mitigation, and cross-border coordination in the Himalayas.

An analysis of shortage pricing and capacity remuneration mechanisms on the pan-European common energy market

Various market design options have been implemented or proposed in order to address the missing money problem and facilitate the energy transition. In order to analyze the performance of energy-only markets, and energy markets supplemented by shortage pricing and/or capacity remuneration mechanisms, we develop a capacity expansion model for the European system. A number of market design scenarios are simulated until the year 2050. We consider a range of sensitivity analyses so as to understand the effect of various market design options on the performance of energy markets and their variants, as well as the effects of cross-border coordination. The findings of this paper indicate that capacity remuneration mechanisms are sensitive to numerous non-obvious design parameters and can sometimes lead to over-dimensioning, even if the effect on total cost can be less pronounced, whereas shortage pricing appears as a no-regret measure because price adders recede when there is abundant flexibility in the system.

Cross-border collaboration and capacity-building for improved health emergency response planning in Southern Africa

Background Many countries were ill prepared for the COVID-19 pandemic and the sudden border closures introduced to stem contagion. To address this planning and response gap, Health Systems Trust and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Division of Global Migration and Quarantine jointly implemented a capacity-building project among eight Southern African countries during 2022. The intention was to strengthen collaboration among the countries in implementing public health emergency response strategies. Shared analysis of cross-border movement patterns, and building neighbouring countries’ capacity to identify priority areas for such response planning, strengthened relationships for communicating health risks and events. Approach This chapter presents findings from project participants’ perspectives on whether and how the project supported improved regional collaboration for emergency responses to public health events, and their perceptions of how the project strengthened their border health systems. Country delegates were convened in multi-sectoral regional and sub-regional meetings and workshops to facilitate cross-border public health information-sharing and co-ordination, and to align surveillance for emergency preparedness and response. They drafted procedures to: strengthen cross-border and multi-sectoral communication; prioritise points of entry for cross-border co-ordination; map population movement patterns; and identify national and regional border health priorities. Training focused on points of entry to enhance planning for future disease outbreaks by introducing the Population Connectivity Across Borders Toolkit for analysing population movement data to guide the design of public health interventions. Conclusions Collaboration with global and regional institutions strengthened the countries’ ability to comply with International Health Regulations in responding to communicable disease outbreaks. The outcomes indicate that sustained engagement, refinement of standard operating procedures, and multilateral agreements that ensure balancing of country priorities with global health requirements, can be achieved. Continued analysis of and reflection on country work plans are needed to assess similarities and differences in priority identification, which will guide future training and development of regional strategies to build stronger border health systems.

Maintaining Cross-Border Cargo Movements Between Jordan and Saudi Arabia During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

One of Jordan's essential border crossings, the Al-Omari border crossing, is 1 of 3 land crossings between Jordan and Saudi Arabia and is located 160 km west of the capital city of Amman. Given its economic importance and essential role in the functioning of food supply networks across the region, Jordan undertook evidence-driven actions to keep the border crossing safely open during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Cross-border coordination and collaboration, specifically with international contact tracing and case management, have been critical elements of Jordan's response. While several bottlenecks and delays led to documented clusters of infections among truck drivers, this case study illustrates the use of evidence to mitigate disease exposure and spread. Plans to manage public health threats need to consider sustainable strengthened surveillance and laboratory capacities coupled with efficient cross-border communication and coordination plans implemented across multiple sectors engaged in cross-country health.

Comprehensive exploration of spatial planning in Zhejiang Province

Zhejiang Province has been committed to the planning reform since the mid-1990s to adapt to economic and social transformation, urbanization and reform of administration system. The province has explored such comprehensive planning as urban system planning, integrated urban-rural planning, overall planning of county/city administrative area, and “multi-plan integration” planning in tandem. The efforts of Zhejiang have become one of the critical sources for developing our territorial spatial planning system after the government institutional reform. In the current practices of territorial spatial planning, Zhejiang has pursued further innovative exploration on optimizing urban-rural pattern, improving spatial quality, promoting spatial management and control, strengthening cross-border coordination, and developing intelligent planning in light of its foundations. By reviewing the history of Zhejiang’s comprehensive planning, the paper summarizes the overall development trend and related experiences in planning to provide insights and topics for further discussion for our current across-the-board territorial spatial planning.

Online Networks of Hate: Cultural Borders in Aterritorial Spaces

IN BRIEF
 
 Online communities escape territorial boundaries yet build virtual borders of their own
 Extremist cultures can thrive in online spaces, evading national legal jurisdictions yet simultaneously operating locally and globally 
 Public policy requires focused multilateral and multilevel cross-border governance coordination in law enforcement in conjunction with robust transparency and accountability mechanisms

Quantifying the effect of administrative approval reforms on SO2 emissions: a quasi-experiment in Chinese cities.

The effects of the Administrative Examination and Approval System Reform on economic growth and entry of businesses have drawn much attention. However, few scholars pay attention to the impacts of this policy on SO2 emissions. Keeping in view the existing research gap, a spatial difference-in-difference (SDID) model is employed to assess the effects of the Administrative Examination and Approval System Reform on SO2 emissions in 297 Chinese cities during the period 1995-2020 from the perspective of spatial spillover effects. The results show that the establishment of Administrative Examination and Approval Center (AEAC) has significantly positive effects on the local SO2 emissions. The significant indirect (spatial spillover) effects are confirmed. That is, the establishment of AEAC of a given city has a significant positive impact on the SO2 emissions of neighboring cities. The findings are confirmed by several robustness tests. Our study findings have significant implications for the cross-border coordination of environmental policies that aim to improve the quality of the environment across borders.

Digital Technologies and Public Policies Applied to Green Cities

Digital technologies and public policies are fundamental for cities in defining their urban greening strategies, and the main goal of this research is to identify the applied digital technologies and the public policy dimensions implemented at the national level by the member states to promote urban greening in the literature and official documents. The methodology used is a systematic literature review (based on international studies), a Delphi study with experts, and a policy analysis, aiming to understand how the Portuguese government has implemented policies and identify the main technologies applied to urban greening. The main findings regard (i) the focus on the interaction between actors in policymaking; (ii) interpretive approaches used to examine the application of technologies in urban greening problems; and (iii) how policies reflect the social construction of ‘problems’. The research focuses on how policy analysis provides a powerful tool that can be used to understand the technologies, actions, interests, and political contexts underpinning policy decisions. The main lessons learned from this research are that urban greening can benefit urban centers together with the non-urban environment on which they have a functional impact, such as agricultural hinterland areas, forest spaces around the cities, and the rural–urban interfaces. Initiatives for urban greening are designed to enhance cross-border coordination, complementarities, flexibility, productivity, and access to the main international markets and territories.

4.C. Workshop: Promoting health without borders: cross-border public health policy in the Euregio Meuse-Rhine

Abstract For more than 20 years, different public health institutions in the German-Belgian-Dutch border triangle have been involved in cross-border public health activities. The partners in the Euregio Meuse-Rhine (EMR), as this area is called, have jointly implemented studies on COVID-19 and on adolescent risk behaviour. They have established joint health reporting for various purposes and implemented prevention measures together. The special problems in the border regions during the Corona pandemic have once again impressively shown how important cross-border cooperation is - also for cross-border public health policy. In the health sector, orientation towards municipal, state and federal borders does not lead to the desired results. The results of the Euregional COVID 19 study of 2021 show that in this way a ‘borderless’ life - and partly also cross-border health care - cannot be adequately served. In fact, in the everyday life of a border community, there is hardly any difference between a district border and a national border. In the EMR, this is exemplary for the entire European Union, with its many national or local responsibilities. For infectious diseases, lifestyle risks, environmental toxins or climate risks, borders have no meaning. For health, however, they do. Cross-border policy and politics is the appropriate response to real European conditions. The workshop will show the possibilities and results of cross-border policy on the basis of 3 examples from the long-standing cooperation of public health actors from the Euregio Meuse-Rhine. Finally, we will present these factors and put them up for discussion. From these and other activities, the factors that enable or hinder policy along borders can be deduced. We will present these factors, classify their significance and present the possibility of generalisation for cross-border work for discussion. Key messages • Cross-border policy and coordination are the appropriate responses to the current realities in the European Union. • National differences in culture, administration and policy can be obstacles to cooperation; but are usually inspiration for new approaches and input for best practice.

Cross Border Supply Chain Coordination Evaluation Model of biotech Logistics Industry based on Big Data Drive

Aiming at the low evaluation coordination degree of the traditional cross-border supply chain coordination evaluation model of biotech logistics industry, a cross-border supply chain coordination evaluation model of biotech logistics industry based on big data drive is designed. By establishing the cross-border supply chain coordination evaluation index system of the biotech logistics industry, calculating the reliability of the evaluation index, extracting the cross-border supply chain coordination evaluation data of the biotech logistics industry based on big data drive, establishing the weight of the supply chain coordination evaluation index, using the coordination capability function to realize the cross-border supply chain coordination evaluation of the biotech logistics industry, and obtaining a complete evaluation model. The experimental results show that the coordination degree of the designed evaluation model is significantly higher than that of the control group, which can solve the problem of low evaluation coordination degree of the traditional cross-border supply chain coordination evaluation model of biotech logistics industry.

The Development of a Collaborative Binational Strategy to Support the San Diego-Tijuana Transborder Community During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic illustrates the need for and importance of cross-border public health collaboration. San Diego, California and Tijuana, Baja California are an interconnected region with one of the busiest international borders in the world and hundreds of thousands bi-directional crossings each day. As the sister cities witnessed the rising case numbers early in the pandemic, it became essential and urgent to implement a formal structure to facilitate cross-border COVID-19 communication, coordination, and collaboration. The present article describes how the development of a Collaborative Binational Strategy led to coordinated outreach and initiatives that addressed access and equity in the transborder region. Through examples, the article illustrates how regional leaders in San Diego and Tijuana harnessed existing transborder partnerships to collaboratively build infrastructure and communication pathways to exchange data, guidance, troubleshoot shared challenges, build capacity, and establish cross-border testing and vaccine opportunities. The challenges, lessons learned, and best practices may inform other multi-level, interdisciplinary, and cross-border jurisdictions on how to support a transborder community during a pandemic or other health emergency.

Leaving no one behind: targeting mobile and migrant populations with health interventions for disease elimination—a descriptive systematic review

BackgroundMobile and migrant populations (MMPs) pose a unique challenge to disease elimination campaigns as they are often hard to survey and reach with treatment. While some elimination efforts have had success reaching MMPs, other campaigns are struggling to do so, which may be affecting progress towards disease control and elimination. Therefore, this paper reviews the literature on elimination campaigns targeting MMPs across a selection of elimination diseases—neglected tropical diseases, malaria, trypanosomiasis, polio, smallpox, and rinderpest.MethodsThrough a systematic review process following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, a three-person review team identified papers from databases, conference records, and citation searches using inclusion/exclusion criteria. Papers were divided into three key outcome domains during the synthetization process: (1) MMP movement patterns in East Africa including reasons for movement and consequences in terms of health outcomes and healthcare access; (2) MMP contribution to the transmission of disease across all geographies; (3) surveillance methods and treatment interventions used to implement programming in MMPs across all geographies. Experts in the field also provided supplemental information and gray literature to support this review.ResultsThe review identified 103 records which were descriptively analyzed using the outcome domains. The results indicate that in East Africa, there are various motivations for migration from economic opportunity to political unrest to natural disasters. Regardless of motivation, mobile lifestyles affect health service access such that MMPs in East Africa report barriers in accessing healthcare and have limited health knowledge. Often lower service delivery to these populations has resulted in higher disease prevalence. A minority of articles suggest MMPs do not pose challenges to reaching disease control and elimination thresholds. Finally, the literature highlighted surveillance methods (e.g., using satellite imagery or mobile phone data to track movement, participatory mapping, snowball sampling) and intervention strategies (e.g., integration with animal health campaigns, cross-border coordination, alternative mass drug administration [MDA] methods) to implement health interventions in MMPs.ConclusionsUltimately, the literature reviewed here can inform programmatic decisions as the community attempts to reach these never treated populations.Systematic review registrationThe protocol for this manuscript was registered with the International Prospective Registry of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) (No. CRD42021214743),

Benefits of regional coordination of balancing capacity markets in future European electricity markets

In the face of growing balancing requirements, there is increased interest in cross-border coordination of balancing capacity markets. Despite improved coordination of balancing energy, only limited progress has been made on coordinating balancing capacity procurement and sizing. That is in part because the coordination of procurement and sizing is more complex as it requires the reservation of cross-zonal transmission capacity. In this paper, a model to simulate a joint day-ahead energy and balancing capacity market clearing is presented, with coordinated procurement and sizing of balancing capacity, and co-optimized allocation of cross-zonal transmission capacity. We apply this model to a highly renewable Central Western European-based case study to illustrate how regional coordination of balancing capacity markets generates benefits. Results show that balancing capacity coordination enables a more cost-effective day-ahead scheduling of electricity production. Notably, the scheduling of peak-load technologies is impacted. Potentially, the greatest benefit of balancing capacity coordination lies in its ability to substantially reduce the need for back-up capacity. Sharing infrequently used generation capacity across borders rather than having individual self-sufficient control areas, especially when paired with alternative sources of balancing capacity (e.g., demand response), could greatly reduce generation capacity needs.

Combined transport: Cheaper and greener. A successful Italian case study

In 2019, road transport was responsible for almost 72% of total greenhouse gas emissions from transport in the EU-28, and light- and heavy-duty vehicles accounted for 40% of it. Although combined road-rail transport offers a more environmentally sustainable alternative to unimodal road transport, in Europe it remains largely underused, with an average modal share of 18%, and its economic advantages are seldom studied. In order to shed some light on both issues, we analyse how the demand for combined transport has changed over time, and we show that, within the European context, the demand trend is highly heterogeneous. Our investigation of the policies implemented to support the uptake of combined transport reveals that they suffer from poor promotion and scarce cross-border coordination and that they do not effectively address the lack of competition characterizing this transport sector. Finally, we describe a case study of an Italian company successfully shifting its incoming shipments from unimodal road transport to combined transport. We summarize the feasibility study we carried out to evaluate the economic benefits arising from the modal shift, and we report the cost reduction, transport time, punctuality and environmental performance of the combined transport service actually used by the firm compared to the unimodal one. Via this modal shift, the company was able to significantly reduce not only the generalized transport costs of its shipments but also the related negative externalities. However, the logistic reorganization adopted by the company was mainly due to the management's proactive approach and the availability of tailor-made combined transport solutions designed by the partnered multimodal transport operator, with the policies implemented at the European and national level having little effect. We conclude by proposing some remedies to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of the current transport policies, including information campaigns on the benefits achievable by both carriers and shippers via the modal shift and an ex-post evaluation and cost-effectiveness analysis of the policies implemented to support combined transport.

ЮНВТО Всемирная туристская Барометр, и статистическое приложение Обновленная информация, январь 2021 года

International tourism up 4% in 2021 but still 72% below pre-pandemic levels Global tourism experienced a mild 4% upturn in 2021, with 15 million more international tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) than in 2020 but remained 72% below the levels of pre-pandemic year 2019 according to preliminary estimates. This follows a 73% plunge in international travel in 2020, the worst year on record for tourism due to the COVID-19 pandemic. International tourism rebounded moderately in the second half of 2021, with international arrivals down 62% in both the third and fourth quarters, compared to the same periods in 2019. Rising vaccination rates combined with softer travel restrictions due to increased cross-border coordination and protocols, have all helped release pent up demand in 2021. Europe and the Americas recorded the strongest results by region relative to 2020 with arrivals up 19% and 17% respectively, though they remained 62% and 63% below 2019 levels. Africa saw a 12% increase in 2021 compared to 2020, though remained 74% below 2019 levels. In the Middle East arrivals declined 24% compared to 2020 and 79% over 2019. In Asia and the Pacific, arrivals dropped 65% from 2020 levels and 94% when compared to pre-pandemic values. By subregion, the Caribbean saw the best performance in 2021, with international arrivals up 63% over 2020, though 37% below 2019, with some destinations coming close to, or exceeding pre-pandemic levels. The economic contribution of tourism (tourism direct gross domestic product) is estimated at US$1.9 trillion in 2021, above the US$1.6 trillion in 2020, but still well below the pre-pandemic value of US$ 3.5 trillion. The latest UNWTO Panel of Experts survey indicates that 61% of tourism professionals expect better performance in 2022 than in 2021. However, most experts (64%) also believe international tourism will not return to 2019 levels until 2024 or later. The recent surge in COVID-19 cases and the emergence of the Omicron variant could disrupt the recovery of tourism in early 2022. UNWTO scenarios point to 30% to 78% growth in international tourist arrivals in 2022 depending on various factors. This would be 50% to 63% below pre-pandemic levels. While international tourism bounces back, domestic tourism will continue to drive the recovery of the sector in an increasing number of destinations. Domestic travel is fueled by demand for destinations which are closer to home and have low population density, as tourists look for open-air activities, nature-based products and rural tourism.