Crop Switching Research Articles

Innovations through crop switching happen on the diverse margins of US agriculture

Crop switching, in which farmers grow a crop that is novel to a given field, can help agricultural systems adapt to changing environmental, cultural, and market forces. Yet while regional crop production trends receive significant attention, relatively little is known about the local-scale crop switching that underlies these macrotrends. We characterized local crop-switching patterns across the United States using the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Cropland Data Layer, an annual time series of high resolution (30 m pixel size) remote-sensed cropland data from 2008 to 2022. We found that at multiple spatial scales, crop switching was most common in sparsely cultivated landscapes and in landscapes with high crop diversity, whereas it was low in homogeneous, highly agricultural areas such as the Midwestern corn belt, suggesting a number of potential social and economic mechanisms influencing farmers' crop choices. Crop-switching rates were high overall, occurring on more than 6% of all US cropland in the average year. Applying a framework that classified crop switches based on their temporal novelty (crop introduction versus discontinuation), spatial novelty (locally divergent versus convergent switching), and categorical novelty (transformative versus incremental switching), we found distinct spatial patterns for these three novelty dimensions, indicating a dynamic and multifaceted set of cropping changes across US farms. Collectively, these results suggest that innovation through crop switching is playing out very differently in various parts of the country, with potentially significant implications for the resilience of agricultural systems to changes in climate and other systemic trends.

Groundwater sustainability in India through nonrice-dominated cropping pattern.

Over-exploitation of groundwater for irrigation caused rapid groundwater depletion in north India, leading to food and water security challenges. However, the crucial role of changing cropping patterns on groundwater savings under the observed and projected warming climate remains unexplored. Here, we show that altering the existing rice-dominated cropping systems in India can be a potential solution for groundwater sustainability under the current and future climate. Satellite and model-based estimates show that north India lost ∼336 and 297 km3 of groundwater, respectively during 2002-2022. We developed optimized crop switching scenarios for groundwater savings considering nutritional requirements, farmers' profit, and crop production. Crop switching considering all the three targets (crop switch one: CSI) and allowing rice replacement with alternate crops (crop switch two: CSII) could save 45 and 91 km3 groundwater, respectively in north India during the observed climate (2002-2022) compared with the current cropping pattern. Altering the current cropping pattern can lead to substantial groundwater savings under the projected future climate without comprising nutritional targets and farmers' profit at the state level. Replacing 37% area of rice with other crops (CSII) can recover 61 to 108 km3 groundwater compared with -13 to 43 km3 with current cropping pattern under the 1.5-3 °C global warming levels. Similarly, under the CSI scenario, 36 to 86 km3 groundwater can be recovered in the future warming world. Moreover, the benefits of crop switching in groundwater saving are higher during the prolonged dry periods compared with the baseline under the warming climate. Therefore, crop switching offers substantial benefits for groundwater sustainability under the current and projected future climate in India.

Kansas agriculture in 2050: a pathway for climate-resilient crop production

IntroductionAdvances in farming technologies and practices have helped farmers to increase crop yields, but continued production increases – while needed to feed a growing global population – are being hindered by climate change and other environmental challenges. Kansas, a globally important region for wheat production, is already experiencing threats to staple crop production. This study explores one possible alternative future for Kansas crop production in which farmers could, by crop switching, continue to grow nutrient-rich crops while responding to hotter temperatures and increasing water demand.MethodsWe used a combination of climate and crop modeling with simple water budgets to identify optimal crop mixes under anticipated climatic and water constraints. Interviews with Kansas farmers helped identify feasible crop switching options: sorghum instead of corn (maize), winter rye and winter oats instead of winter wheat, and millet instead of soybeans.ResultsOur analysis suggests that a sizeable proportion of current Kansas cropland would need to shift to these alternative crops by 2050 to meet anticipated water constraints and produce equivalent nutritional value under projected climate conditions. Alternative crops could increase from 16% of Kansas' crop area in 2021 to 43% of the area in 2050, resulting in a reduction in 2050 crop water demand of 12% relative to that of the current crop mix. This crop water demand reduction would be concentrated in parts of the state that will experience the greatest change in water needs between today and mid-century due to changing climate conditions.DiscussionOur analysis shows that, by changing (diversifying) the mix of crops grown, it is biophysically possible for crop production in Kansas to be both sustainable and resilient under future climate conditions. However, achieving a more climate-resilient crop mix on the ground, in Kansas and elsewhere, will require major shifts in the broader agricultural system. Food companies, agricultural lenders, and policymakers can play a key role in enabling farmers to adapt cropping systems in the face of climate and environmental challenges.

Improve food, water, and economic benefits in China’s oases through crop switching

China’s oases are the center of human life and economic development for tens of millions of inhabitants in drylands. However, oases have experienced a significant expansion of cropland during the past three decades, which has resulted in rapidly increasing agricultural water demand and increasing water shortages in the region. Although crop switching is recognized as a promising strategy for improving the sustainability of agricultural production, little is known about how much it can improve the sustainability of oasis cropping systems and whether there are trade-offs among multiple sustainability goals. Here, we used a crop-water-use model, data on crop production and nutrient content, observational data on streamflow, and oasis land-use data to assess the impacts of different crop switching scenarios on water demand, nutrient supply, and income. The results showed that oasis agricultural water demand increased from 28.5 km3 to 41.1 km3 between 1987 and 2017, with 74.6 % of the oasis counties experiencing increasing agricultural water stress. By replacing all crops with those having the lowest water demand in each respective county, the demand for irrigation can be reduced by 23.1 %, and the demand for groundwater reduced by as much as 72.8 %. Crop switching scenarios that also consider crop species diversity, in which replacing the highest water demand crops with alternative crops (those with the lowest water demands, highest protein production, or highest calorie production) in each county can effectively reduce irrigation water demand (8.5–12.9 % for streamflow and 32.7–43.3 % for groundwater), while increasing protein (21.3–35.8 %) and calorie (27.5–42.7 %) production as well as income (1.4–2.4 %). Our research provides potential solutions to effectively alleviate the conflict between agricultural development and the environment in oasis regions.

Crop Switching as Climate Change Adaptation Strategy of Farmers in the Province of Batangas

Crop Switching as Climate Change Adaptation Strategy of Farmers in the Province of Batangas

Perceptions on Climate Change and Satisfaction on Adaptive Measures: Farmer Field Evidence from Punjab, Pakistan

Climate change poses a serious threat to the agrarian economy of Pakistan. Future agriculture productivity of the country can only be secured through the adaptation of climate change strategies. This research is designed to investigate the farmers’ perceptions of climate change and their satisfaction with the adaptation measures in the Punjab province of Pakistan. The questionnaire-based data was collected in 36 districts, from 360 respondents through the field survey. Both random and convenient sampling techniques were employed. For empirical analysis, a Multinomial Logistic regression model was operated. The results indicate that an increase in per-hectare yield lessens the farmer’s vulnerability to climate change. This research found that the farmers observed that changing precipitation patterns, extreme climate events, mutable sowing and harvesting time, temperature variation, night temperature, and traditional crop varieties are key vulnerable factors of climate change. These may create an alarming situation for agriculture productivity in the province. It is registered that farmers are not satisfied with adaptation measures particularly concerning heat-resistant and drought-resistant varieties. Agriculture extension services could not deliver optimally to protect the agriculture output from climate vulnerability. The results show that farmers are not satisfied with the performance of climate-resilient and research institutions. It is recommended that the government, research institutions, and climate-resilient institutions design new sowing and harvesting patterns, new seed varieties, new climatic zones, and alternative crop switching. The whole paradigm of extension services needs to be modernized and mechanized with the wider application of ICTs. The extension department should timely disseminate the climate information and educate the farmers on climate resilience and adaptation.

Crop switching for water sustainability in India’s food bowl yields co-benefits for food security and farmers’ profits

AbstractGroundwater depletion due to agricultural intensification is a major threat to water and food security in the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), a critical food bowl, home to 400 million people and currently producing 135 million metric tonnes of cereals. Among the solutions proposed to address this unsustainable water consumption, crop switching has received growing attention, yet its potential to produce co-benefits or trade-offs for other dimensions of sustainability (for example, food supply and farmers’ profits) remains largely unquantified. In this study, we developed and applied a crop switching optimization model for cereals in the IGP to maximize calorie production and farmers’ profits and minimize water consumption. We found that switching from rice to millets (pearl millet) and sorghum in the Kharif (monsoon) season and from wheat to sorghum in the Rabi (winter) season could potentially reduce water consumption by 32%, improve calorie production by 39% and increase farmers’ profits by 140%. We also found that switching crops offers a larger reduction in groundwater depletion and energy savings than improving irrigation efficiency (that is, from flood to drip irrigation). Our findings demonstrate the potential for crop switching to address the multidimensional sustainability challenges of the IGP, with possible application to other regions facing similar issues.

Unlocking benefits of crop switching in India

Unlocking benefits of crop switching in India

Crop switching for sustainability.

Crop switching for sustainability.

Crop switching can enhance environmental sustainability and farmer incomes in China.

Achieving food-system sustainability is a multidimensional challenge. In China, a doubling of crop production since 1990 has compromised other dimensions of sustainability1,2. Although the country is promoting various interventions to enhance production efficiency and reduce environmental impacts3, there is little understanding of whether crop switching can achieve more sustainable cropping systems and whether coordinated action is needed to avoid tradeoffs. Here we combine high-resolution data on crop-specific yields, harvested areas, environmental footprints and farmer incomes to first quantify the current state of crop-production sustainability. Under varying levels of inter-ministerial and central coordination, we perform spatial optimizations that redistribute crops to meet a suite of agricultural sustainable development targets. With a siloed approach-in which each government ministry seeks to improve a single sustainability outcome in isolation-crop switching could realize large individual benefits but produce tradeoffs for other dimensions and between regions. In cases of central coordination-in which tradeoffs are prevented-we find marked co-benefits for environmental-impact reductions (blue water (-4.5% to -18.5%), green water (-4.4% to -9.5%), greenhouse gases (GHGs) (-1.7% to -7.7%), fertilizers (-5.2% to -10.9%), pesticides (-4.3% to -10.8%)) and increased farmer incomes (+2.9% to +7.5%). These outcomes of centrally coordinated crop switching can contribute substantially (23-40% across dimensions) towards China's 2030 agricultural sustainable development targets and potentially produce global resource savings. This integrated approach can inform feasible targeted agricultural interventions that achieve sustainability co-benefits across several dimensions.

Crop switching could be a win-win solution for improving both the productivity and sustainability in a typical dryland farming region-Loess Plateau, China

Increasing crop yield and reducing environmental impacts are conductive to regional sustainable food production, while integrated evaluation of them is still lacking. To fill this gap, a new systematic analysis method was developed to quantify crop yield, economic input and environment impact of farmland. Taking the farmland ecosystems of Loess Plateau (LP) in China during 2014–2018 as a case, this new systematic analysis method was applied to quantify the ecological environment, systematic sustainability, and socioeconomic characteristics (indicators) of the farmland ecosystems in dry farming. Then, by exploring the relationships of these indicators and combining with crop switching analysis, the relatively unsustainable counties in farming and the improving potential of sustainable crop production was clarified, respectively. Several interesting results were explored. (1) The counties with the farmland of grey-water footprints exceeding 500 m3/t or soil erosion empowers exceeding 1.5E+12 sej/ha could be categorized as the relatively unsustainable counties in farming. (2) Maize and sorghum showed superior performance in terms of both environmental sustainability and crop productivity, and had promotion advantages in LP. (3) Crop switching could reduce grey water footprint and soil erosion of farmland by up to 27.41% and 35.14% respectively, and increase emergy sustainability index and crop yield by up to 10.35% and 19.90% respectively. The integrated systematic analysis method and crop switching method has high application value for regional sustainable crop production, especially for dryland regions with fragile ecological environment and prominent food demand-supply conflict.

Crop selection as climate change adaptation: A study on Koyra Upazila of Bangladesh

This paper explores how farmers adapt to salinity and waterlogging conditions by selecting crops. In this context, this study identifies salinity and waterlogging tolerant crops essential for the sustained livelihood of crop farmers. We developed a multinomial logit model and a cost-benefit analysis for assessing the effectiveness of farmers' selection of crops. Estimating the regression model across 1380 farmers in Koyra Upazila, we find that households' socio-economic-demographic characteristics are important contributors to crop selection. Access to market information, the optimal fertilizer dose, an early warning system, social mobilization, training, credit facilities, farming experience, wage labor, pest control, weed control, and land tenure status are all important factors in crop selection. This study suggests that farmers in this Upazila can cultivate hybrid sunflower, mustard seed, cotton, maize, and wheat in salinity affected farms in dryer locations. Likewise, they can also cultivate Aman paddy in water salinity and waterlogging affected farms. Prediction of the impact of salinity and waterlogging on net revenue must highlight not only changes in yields per crop but also crop selection and switching.

Crop Switching and Farm Sustainability: Empirical Evidence from Multinomial Treatment-Effect Modeling

Crop switching has been examined in the literature addressing the production effects of irrigation or as viable strategy in the adaptation to climate change, which is closely related to agricultural resilience. Attention to the identification of the direct linkage between crop switching and farm profitability, and, thus, farm sustainability, however, has been quite limited. This study attempts to provide a significant complement to the extant research by identifying the treatment effect of crop switching on the net returns of crop growers in Taiwan. A multinomial endogenous treatment effects model with the latent-factor structure is used to take self-selection into account. The result suggests that farm households’ economic resilience is closely related to their choice of crops, which constitute the major source of farm income. Specifically, among the six cash crop categories, fruit crops and other crops are found to be most remunerating and, thus, suggests possible improvements in farm households’ economic resilience through crop switching. A further analysis of the distributional implications of crop switching through quantile regression confirms the persistent and stronger effects of crop choice on net returns when moving from the bottom to the top quartiles along the net-return distribution. This result suggests a close association of crop choices with farm income inequality among the crop farm households in Taiwan, which in turn implies possible distributional effects of crop switching.

Agricultural value chain development in Nepal: Understanding mechanisms for poverty reduction

AbstractThis analysis investigates the potential mechanisms and the practical significance of agricultural value chain development in a geographically challenging rural area of a developing country. Using data from a carefully designed primary survey administered in a hill and mountainous region in Western Nepal, we show that linking small‐scale producers to regional and local traders can help increase income. Analysis of impact pathways shows that the positive impact on household income emerges through higher agricultural income, driven by higher sale volume at lower prices. Focusing on high value commodities in rural areas, where arable land is not always fully exploited or utilized, appears to lead to acreage expansion and some crop switching, contributing to higher supply albeit at lower prices. The positive impact on household income is practically significant; it helps improve household food security and asset accumulation. These findings are robust to alternative specifications. Targeted value chain interventions that strengthen and stabilize small‐scale producers’ access to markets can contribute to rural poverty reduction via increase in agricultural income.

Determinants of crop choice decisions under risk: A case study on the revival of cocoa farming in the Forest-Savannah transition zone of Ghana

The revival of cocoa farming in the Forest-Savannah Transition Zone (FSTZ) of Ghana despite high production risk raises questions on the factors underlying it, and whether the renewed interest in cocoa can be sustained. This paper examines the reasons that underlie households’ decision to farm cocoa or otherwise in the FSTZ, and how risk perceptions, demographic factors and livelihood assets predict such crop choice decisions. Methods of data collection include household surveys and key informant interviews. Four hundred and eight household heads and 32 key informants were interviewed in 12 farming communities. Findings indicate divergent crop choice decisions on cocoa among farming households. While market security generally created a strong incentive for cocoa farming, some households exhibited risk aversion by avoiding or abandoning cocoa farming. The decision to farm cocoa was negatively predicted by perceptions of drought and lack of money as the most severe risk factors of cocoa farming, the sex of the household head (being a female) and lack of land ownership and social network with cocoa farmers. Currently, it appears the renewed interest in cocoa farming can be sustained, especially considering market uncertainties for alternative crops (cashew and food crops). This may, however, not be the case in the long term. More households are likely to avoid or abandon cocoa farming if climate and food security risks should worsen as projected, and more so if the cashew market is stabilised by government. Cocoa investment programmes in the FSTZ aiming at long-term sustainability ought to target households that are more likely to farm cocoa under high production risk. Such programmes may also attract new farmers and sustain their interest in cocoa farming by enhancing their access to land, capital, and irrigation facilities (for managing drought). At the moment, crop diversification (towards cashew and food crops) rather than crop switching is needed to manage the climate, market and food security risks confronting farmers. Overall, the paper contributes to a better understanding of the determinants of farmers’ crop choice decisions on cocoa in the context of multiple risks.

Crop switching reduces agricultural losses from climate change in the United States by half under RCP 8.5

A key strategy for agriculture to adapt to climate change is by switching crops and relocating crop production. We develop an approach to estimate the economic potential of crop reallocation using a Bayesian hierarchical model of yields. We apply the model to six crops in the United States, and show that it outperforms traditional empirical models under cross-validation. The fitted model parameters provide evidence of considerable existing climate adaptation across counties. If crop locations are held constant in the future, total agriculture profits for the six crops will drop by 31% for the temperature patterns of 2070 under RCP 8.5. When crop lands are reallocated to avoid yield decreases and take advantage of yield increases, half of these losses are avoided (16% loss), but 57% of counties are allocated crops different from those currently planted. Our results provide a framework for identifying crop adaptation opportunities, but suggest limits to their potential.

A Systems Approach To Assess Trade Dependencies in U.S. Food-Energy-Water Nexus.

We present a network model of the United States (U.S.) interstate food transfers to analyze the trade dependency with respect to participating regions and embodied irrigation impacts from a food-energy-water (FEW) nexus perspective. To this end, we utilize systems analysis methods including the pointwise mutual information (PMI) measure to provide an indication of interdependencies by estimating probability of trade between states. PMI compares observed trade with a benchmark of what is statistically expected given the structure and flow in the network. This helps assess whether dependencies arising from empirically observed trade occur due to chance or preferential attachment. The implications of PMI values are demonstrated by using Texas as an example, the largest importer in the U.S. grain transfer network. We find that strong dependencies exist not only just with states (Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska) providing high volume of transfer to Texas but also with states that have comparatively lower trade (New Mexico). This is due to New Mexico's reliance on Texas as an important revenue source compared to its other connections. For Texas, import interdependencies arise from geographical proximity to trade. As these states primarily rely on the commonly shared High Plains aquifer for irrigation, overreliance poses a risk for water shortage for food supply in Texas. PMI values also indicate the capacity to trade more (the states are less reliant on each other than expected), and therefore provide an indication of where the trade could be shifted to avoid groundwater scarcity. However, some of the identified states rely on GHG emission intensive fossil fuels such as diesel and gasoline for irrigation, highlighting a potential tradeoff between crop water footprint and switching to lower emissions pumping fuels.

Crop switching as an adaptation strategy to climate change: the case of Semien Shewa Zone of Ethiopia

Purpose The geographical range of agricultural crops is shifting because of climate change. Reducing the potential negative impact of this shift requires efficient crop switching at farm level. Yet there are scant studies that examine how crop switching is currently taking place and what factors facilitate the process. Even these few existing studies often based their analysis on inadequately established causal link between climate change and switching decisions. This study aims to identify the specific switching decisions that are primarily motivated by climate change, and their determinants. Design/methodology/approach The study used a household survey on 190 households in Semien Shewa Zone in Ethiopia. Subjective rating of farmers was used to identify the relative importance of climate change in motivating the different types of switching decisions. A logit model is used to identify determinants of crop switching decisions primarily motivated by climate change. Findings Farmers in the study area are currently abandoning certain crops as a response to climate change. The adoption of new crops is, however, mainly attributed to price changes. Most farmers who abandoned at least one crop adopted mung bean mainly due to its price advantages. As expected, crop switching as an adaptation strategy is more prevalent particularly in drier and hotter agroecologies. The logit model showed that crop switching is strongly correlated with land size and agroecology. Originality/value This paper provides an in-depth examination of crop switching as an adaptation strategy to climate change. Crop switching is an adaptation strategy that is expected to substantially reduce the damage from climate change in agriculture. The findings are particularly relevant for adaptation planning in the context of smallholder agriculture.

Water impacts of U.S. biofuels: Insights from an assessment combining economic and biophysical models.

Biofuels policies induce land use changes (LUC), including cropland expansion and crop switching, and this in turn alters water and soil management practices. Policies differ in the extent and type of land use changes they induce and therefore in their impact on water resources. We quantify and compare the spatially varying water impacts of biofuel crops stemming from LUC induced by two different biofuels policies by coupling a biophysical model with an economic model to simulate the economically viable mix of crops, land uses, and crop management choices under alternative policy scenarios. We assess the outputs of an economic model with a high-resolution crop-water model for major agricultural crops and potential cellulosic feedstocks in the US to analyze the impacts of three alternative policy scenarios on water balances: a counterfactual ‘no-biofuels policy’ (BAU) scenario, a volumetric mandate (Mandate) scenario, and a clean fuel-intensity standard (CFS) scenario incentivizing fuels based on their carbon intensities. While both biofuel policies incentivize more biofuels than in the counterfactual, they differ in the mix of corn ethanol and advanced biofuels from miscanthus and switchgrass (more corn ethanol in Mandate and more cellulosic biofuels in CFS). The two policies differ in their impact on irrigated acreage, irrigation demand, groundwater use and runoff. Net irrigation requirements increase 0.7% in Mandate and decrease 3.8% in CFS, but in both scenarios increases are concentrated in regions of Kansas and Nebraska that rely upon the Ogallala aquifer for irrigation water. Our study illustrates the importance of accounting for the overall LUC and shifts in agricultural production and management practices in response to policies when assessing the water impacts of biofuels.

Climate change as a motivating factor for farm-adjustments: Rethinking the link

In order to design effective adaptation policies for the agricultural sector, it is important to understand what adjustments farmers actually make in order to cope with climate change. Many studies have compiled lists of such adjustments, especially in the developing country context. There is reason to believe, however, that such studies have suffered from particularly two types of methodological flaws, with the result of over-attributing the importance of climate change, relative to other factors leading farmers to alter their behavior. Firstly, studies in the past often do not consider non-climatic drivers in their analysis and their style of enquiry is also prone to response bias, particularly social desirability bias. In this study, we introduced a new methodological approach that addresses these potential flaws. We applied this new method side-by-side with the more established ones, in a household survey undertaken in Ethiopia. Our new method reveals a list of climate adaptations that is somewhat shorter than previous studies have found. We found that in the study area, crop switching, crop diversification and changing planting date are the adjustments that are primarily motivated by climate change than other drivers. The commonly used approach in studies in the past, the direct enquiry method, identified fertilizer application as the most important adaptation response. Other methods including our suggested new approach, however, indicate that this and other farm-level adjustments, while compatible with climate change, have actually very little to do with it, and instead are primarily motivated by new market and technological opportunities. Our findings could allow for more effective and efficient sets of policies to help farmers best adjust to new threats and opportunities.