Crop Growth Simulation Research Articles

A novel conceptual model coupling crop growth and soil water-heat-salt processes in arid area

In arid farmland, the soil water, heat, and salt movement tightly couple with crop growth. Accurately expressing the coupling relationships is essential to understanding the complex agricultural hydrological system and enhancing agricultural water productivity. A novel conceptual model coupling crop growth, soil water-heat-salt movement, and energy balance in arid area with shallow groundwater was developed which has potential for use in large heterogeneous irrigation districts. The model can calculate the crop-soil system through the effect of crop canopy and leaf area index (LAI) on potential evapotranspiration and the stress of soil moisture, temperature, and salinity status to root water uptake. The energy balance equation was used for calculating the upper boundary condition for soil temperature. The model was calibrated and validated using four years of field monitoring data for two crops located in a typical arid agricultural area in China. The model performed well in simulated field hydrology and crop growth processes. The model can capture soil water-heat-salt dynamics and model field evapotranspiration with RMSE below 1.14 mm/day, and crop transpiration with R2 of above 0.61. Furthermore, the model can accurately describe crop growth processes with R2 of 0.95 and RMSE of 0.49 for LAI, and R2 of 0.99, RMSE of 12.95 cm for crop height. With few parameters, our work supplies an alternative method for quantifying agricultural hydrological processes. In particular, the model has potential to simulate the regional crop growth and soil water-heat-salt processes for heterogeneous agricultural area. This method is helpful in determining the scientific irrigation management schedule.

Investigation of coupling DSSAT with SCOPE-RTMo via sensitivity analysis and use of this coupled crop-radiative transfer model for sensitivity-based data assimilation

The increasing availability of remote sensing (RS) data and the advancement of computation abilities, combined with the demands for enhancing crop production, encourages the creation of a framework in which crop growth simulation can be updated sequentially to serve as a yield predictor and be part of a decision support system. However, crop model outputs and RS data must be linked via a radiative transfer model (RTM), which simulates the interaction between the crop and the intercepted radiation. In this study, a comprehensive coupling scheme between a crop model (DSSAT-CROPGRO-tomato) and an RTM (SCOPE-RTMo) was formulated and investigated through global sensitivity analysis (SA) and by testing the coupled model in a synthetic data assimilation (DA) experiment. The DA experiment utilized a sensitivity-based particle filter (PF) in which the SA results were used to enhance the PF convergence rate and accuracy. The SA results provide the sensitivity of simulated reflectance at different wavelengths to DSSAT-CROPGRO parameters throughout the season. This information can help guide future data assimilation experiments by choosing imaging instruments with appropriate spectral bands and timing the measurements to enhance model calibration. The results of the synthetic DA experiment showed a good convergence of the particle filter towards the ground truth. The results also demonstrated the strong relation between LAI and reflectance, as several model runs with different initial values of DSSAT-CROPGRO parameters all converged and predicted the synthetic LAI observations very well. The convergence of DSSAT-CROPGRO parameters to their ground truth values was only partial, and phenology-related parameters tended to converge better than growth-related parameters.

Ideotype map research based on a crop model in the context of a climatic gradient

Due to increasing climate uncertainties, optimizing plant traits is essential for sustainable agriculture. This article presents an approach that combines advanced modelling techniques to identify optimal plant traits under various agro-environmental conditions. By integrating a crop model, a climate generator, and our PEQI algorithm (Profile Expected Quantile Improvement), our method aims to create ideotype maps tailored to specific regions.We use the SAMARA model (Simulator of crop trait Assembly, MAnagement Response, and Adaptation), calibrated with trials carried in Sahel on a set of local varieties, to simulate crop growth in diverse environments. The PEQI algorithm adjusts varietal parameters to maximize expected yield, defining precise selection objectives known as ideotypes, which are particularly important in regions with irregular rainfall patterns like the Sahel.With the PEQI algorithm based on a kriging metamodel, we ensure effective adaptation to spatially variable environments. By leveraging a climate generator to simulate meteorological variability, our integrated approach optimizes crop yields in regions such as Senegal, southern Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea-Bissau. The outcome is an ideotype map for sorghum, providing breeders with a robust decision-support tool to enhance crop performance amidst climate uncertainty.

A study on parameter calibration of a general crop growth model considering non-foliar green organs

Accurate crop yield estimation is essential for ensuring national food security and sustainable development. The crop growth model is one of the primary methods for estimating production and has been effectively applied in simulating crop growth and development, environmental factor effects and yield formation processes. However, many related studies have focused on Gramineae crops, such as wheat, rice and maize, while there has been little research on rape and soybean yield estimation. Non-foliar green organs such as rape siliques and soybean pods make vital contributions to plant photosynthesis and influence crop output. The parameter calibration method based on the leaf area index (LAI) cannot satisfy the existing demand for high-precision yield estimation for crops with active non-foliar green organs. Therefore, a new method for crop growth model calibration was proposed, which considers non-foliar green organs and plant photosynthetic succession processes and combines them with those of leaves to construct a photosynthetic area index (PAI). With wheat, rape and soybean as the research objects, their yields were simulated via the proposed crop growth model calibration method. The results showed that using the proposed calibration method to calibrate World Food Study (WOFOST) model parameters on the basis of the PAI improved the yield estimation accuracy over that of the crop model calibration method based on the LAI. The determination coefficient (R2) of the total dry weight of storage organs (TWSO) simulation value increased from 0.73 (using the LAI) to more than 0.90 (using the PAI). The R2 values of TWSO at the rape calibration and verification points were 0.910 and 0.922, respectively, and the R2 values of TWSO at the soybean calibration and verification points were 0.741 and 0.926, respectively. The above results verified the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed calibration method. Consequently, the application of the crop model calibration method proposed in this paper is important for accurately estimating the crop yield of plants with active non-foliar green organs, promoting the expansion of general crop models for different types of crops and achieving high-precision crop yield estimations.

Remote Sensing Data Assimilation in Crop Growth Modeling from an Agricultural Perspective: New Insights on Challenges and Prospects

The frequent occurrence of global climate change and natural disasters highlights the importance of precision agricultural monitoring, yield forecasting, and early warning systems. The data assimilation method provides a new possibility to solve the problems of low accuracy of yield prediction, strong dependence on the field, and poor adaptability of the model in traditional agricultural applications. Therefore, this study makes a systematic literature retrieval based on Web of Science, Scopus, Google Scholar, and PubMed databases, introduces in detail the assimilation strategies based on many new remote sensing data sources, such as satellite constellation, UAV, ground observation stations, and mobile platforms, and compares and analyzes the progress of assimilation models such as compulsion method, model parameter method, state update method, and Bayesian paradigm method. The results show that: (1) the new remote sensing platform data assimilation shows significant advantages in precision agriculture, especially in emerging satellite constellation remote sensing and UAV data assimilation. (2) SWAP model is the most widely used in simulating crop growth, while Aquacrop, WOFOST, and APSIM models have great potential for application. (3) Sequential assimilation strategy is the most widely used algorithm in the field of agricultural data assimilation, especially the ensemble Kalman filter algorithm, and hierarchical Bayesian assimilation strategy is considered to be a promising method. (4) Leaf area index (LAI) is considered to be the most preferred assimilation variable, and the study of soil moisture (SM) and vegetation index (VIs) has also been strengthened. In addition, the quality, resolution, and applicability of assimilation data sources are the key bottlenecks that affect the application of data assimilation in the development of precision agriculture. In the future, the development of data assimilation models tends to be more refined, diversified, and integrated. To sum up, this study can provide a comprehensive reference for agricultural monitoring, yield prediction, and crop early warning by using the data assimilation model.

Enhancing Winter Wheat Representation in Noah‐MP‐Crop for Improved Dynamic Crop Growth Simulation in the North China Plain

AbstractExplicitly representing the world's most frequently cultivated winter wheat in land surface model (LSM) is important for understanding carbon and energy cycling over cropland and its interactions with climate, which is crucial for global food security. However, in the latest version of Noah‐MP‐Crop LSM, winter wheat is significantly underrepresented. This study improved the winter‐wheat parameterization in Noah‐MP‐Crop model by optimizing the phenological scheme, incorporating vernalization process, and calibrating several key parameters associated with winter wheat photosynthesis and carbon allocations. Focusing on the North China Plain as area representative region, model performance in simulating crop dynamic growth, carbon flux, and energy fluxes was validated at both site and regional scales. Results showed that the simulated phenological development matched well with the real‐world phenological records. A comparison between the simulated results by the default and developed parameterizations revealed the significant improvements in the reproductions of leaf area index (LAI) and gross primary production (GPP). The determination coefficient (R2) value of GPP was increased from 0.15 to 0.46 to 0.39–0.91. Simulations of energy fluxes showed smaller improvements, with R2 values increasing from 0.46 to 0.67 to 0.61–0.84 for latent heat (LE) and 0.18–0.55 to 0.25–0.61 for sensible heat. Additionally, the mean average error of net radiation was reduced. Improvements in spatial and temporal variations of LAI, GPP, and LE in regional simulation were also observed. This work can facilitate incorporating winter wheat cultivation and its interactions with climate system, particularly when coupling the Noah‐MP‐Crop model with the widely used Weather Research and Forecasting model.

Representing cropping systems with the MEMS 2 ecosystem model

AbstractCroplands have been the focus of substantial investigation due to their considerable potential for sequestering carbon. Understanding the potential for soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration and necessary management strategies will be enabled with accurate process‐based models. Accurately representing crop growth and agricultural practices will be critical for realistic SOC modeling. The MEMS 2 model incorporates a current understanding of SOC formation and stabilization, measurable SOC pools, and deep SOC dynamics and is seen as a highly promising tool to inform management intervention for SOC sequestration. Thus far, MEMS 2 has been developed to represent grasslands. In this study, we further developed MEMS 2 to model annual grain crops and common agricultural practices, such as irrigation, fertilization, harvesting, and tillage. Using four Ameriflux sites, we demonstrated an accurate simulation of crop growth and development. Model performance was strong for simulating aboveground biomass (index of agreement [d] range of 0.89–0.98) and green leaf area index (d from 0.90 to 0.96) across corn, soybean, and winter wheat. Good agreement with observations was also achieved for net ecosystem CO2 exchange (d from 0.90 to 0.96), evapotranspiration (d from 0.91 to 0.94), and soil temperature (d of 0.96), while discrepancy with the available soil water content data remain (d from 0.14 to 0.81 at four depths to 100 cm). While we will continue model testing and improvement, MEMS 2 (version 2.14) has now demonstrated its ability to effectively simulate the growth of common grain crops and practices.

Variability in the responses of rice ecotypes to elevated CO2 based on data from FACE studies in China and Japan: Implications for climate change adaptation

Elevated CO2 increases rice yields, and the response level varies across locations and genotypes. Previous analyses of genotypic variations from diverse Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) studies lacked specificity, limiting their applicability in simulating the responses of crop growth to elevated CO2. Using meta-analysis approach and the ORYZA (v3) model with historical and projected climatic data, this study evaluated the differences in the responses of rice ecotypes to elevated CO2 and identified adaptive measures. Meta-analytical findings indicated that Chinese inbred indica (indicai) and hybrid indica (indicah) rice exhibited comparable yield response rates (28.4% and 31.1%, respectively) to elevated CO2, surpassing those of Chinese japonica rice and Japanese indicai and japonica rice. Achieving higher adaptation to elevated CO2, exemplified by Chinese indicah rice, necessitates the consideration of balanced yield components, with individual contributions to yield responses ranging from 9.8% to 36.2%. This study highlighted the susceptibility of japonica rice to adverse effects of maximum temperatures on yield component responses to elevated CO2 compared to indicai or indicah rice. Strategic adjustments in sowing dates can enhance rice production under climate change, with high-response genotypes benefiting more from optimal sowing periods. Furthermore, for genotypes with less responsiveness to elevated CO2, augmenting nitrogen application in conjunction with sowing date adjustments was beneficial for yield optimization. This research not only advances our understanding of the diverse adaptation strategies of rice genotypes under varying climatic conditions but also enhances the precision of crop growth simulations by accounting for the varied responses to CO2 enrichment. These insights are pivotal for developing targeted breeding and management practices aimed at enhancing climate resilience in rice production.

Climate-Informed Management of Irrigated Cotton in Western Kansas to Reduce Groundwater Withdrawals

The Ogallala aquifer, underlying eight states from South Dakota to Texas, is practically non-recharging south of Nebraska, and groundwater withdrawals for irrigation have lowered the aquifer in western Kansas. Subsequent well-yield declines encourage deficit irrigation, greater reliance on precipitation, and producing profitable drought-tolerant crops like upland cotton (Gossypium hirsutum (L.)). Our objective was to evaluate deficit irrigated cotton growth, yield, and water productivity (CWP) in northwest, west-central, and southwest Kansas in relation to El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) phase effects on precipitation and growing season cumulative thermal energy (CGDD). Using the GOSSYM crop growth simulator with actual 1961–2000 location weather records partitioned by the ENSO phase, we modeled crop growth, yield, and evapotranspiration (ET) for irrigation capacities of 2.5, 3.75, and 5.0 mmd−1 and periods of 4, 6, and 8 weeks. Regardless of location, the ENSO phase did not influence CGDD, but precipitation and lint yield decreased significantly in southwest Kansas during La Niña compared with the Neutral and El Niño phases. Simulated lint yields, ET, CWP, and leaf area index (LAI) increased with increasing irrigation capacity despite application duration. Southwestern Kansas producers may use ENSO phase information with deficit irrigation to reduce groundwater withdrawals while preserving desirable cotton yields.

Data-driven crop growth simulation on time-varying generated images using multi-conditional generative adversarial networks

BackgroundImage-based crop growth modeling can substantially contribute to precision agriculture by revealing spatial crop development over time, which allows an early and location-specific estimation of relevant future plant traits, such as leaf area or biomass. A prerequisite for realistic and sharp crop image generation is the integration of multiple growth-influencing conditions in a model, such as an image of an initial growth stage, the associated growth time, and further information about the field treatment. While image-based models provide more flexibility for crop growth modeling than process-based models, there is still a significant research gap in the comprehensive integration of various growth-influencing conditions. Further exploration and investigation are needed to address this gap.MethodsWe present a two-stage framework consisting first of an image generation model and second of a growth estimation model, independently trained. The image generation model is a conditional Wasserstein generative adversarial network (CWGAN). In the generator of this model, conditional batch normalization (CBN) is used to integrate conditions of different types along with the input image. This allows the model to generate time-varying artificial images dependent on multiple influencing factors. These images are used by the second part of the framework for plant phenotyping by deriving plant-specific traits and comparing them with those of non-artificial (real) reference images. In addition, image quality is evaluated using multi-scale structural similarity (MS-SSIM), learned perceptual image patch similarity (LPIPS), and Fréchet inception distance (FID). During inference, the framework allows image generation for any combination of conditions used in training; we call this generation data-driven crop growth simulation.ResultsExperiments are performed on three datasets of different complexity. These datasets include the laboratory plant Arabidopsis thaliana (Arabidopsis) and crops grown under real field conditions, namely cauliflower (GrowliFlower) and crop mixtures consisting of faba bean and spring wheat (MixedCrop). In all cases, the framework allows realistic, sharp image generations with a slight loss of quality from short-term to long-term predictions. For MixedCrop grown under varying treatments (different cultivars, sowing densities), the results show that adding these treatment information increases the generation quality and phenotyping accuracy measured by the estimated biomass. Simulations of varying growth-influencing conditions performed with the trained framework provide valuable insights into how such factors relate to crop appearances, which is particularly useful in complex, less explored crop mixture systems. Further results show that adding process-based simulated biomass as a condition increases the accuracy of the derived phenotypic traits from the predicted images. This demonstrates the potential of our framework to serve as an interface between a data-driven and a process-based crop growth model.ConclusionThe realistic generation and simulation of future plant appearances is adequately feasible by multi-conditional CWGAN. The presented framework complements process-based models and overcomes their limitations, such as the reliance on assumptions and the low exact field-localization specificity, by realistic visualizations of the spatial crop development that directly lead to a high explainability of the model predictions.

Research on fertilization decision method for rice tillering stage based on the coupling of UAV hyperspectral remote sensing and WOFOST.

The use of chemical fertilizers in rice field management directly affects rice yield. Traditional rice cultivation often relies on the experience of farmers to develop fertilization plans, which cannot be adjusted according to the fertilizer requirements of rice. At present, agricultural drones are widely used for early monitoring of rice, but due to their lack of rationality, they cannot directly guide fertilization. How to accurately apply nitrogen fertilizer during the tillering stage to stabilize rice yield is an urgent problem to be solved in the current large-scale rice production process. WOFOST is a highly mechanistic crop growth model that can effectively simulate the effects of fertilization on rice growth and development. However, due to its lack of spatial heterogeneity, its ability to simulate crop growth at the field level is weak. This study is based on UAV remote sensing to obtain hyperspectral data of rice canopy and assimilation with the WOFOST crop growth model, to study the decision-making method of nitrogen fertilizer application during the rice tillering stage. Extracting hyperspectral features of rice canopy using Continuous Projection Algorithm and constructing a hyperspectral inversion model for rice biomass based on Extreme Learning Machine. By using two data assimilation methods, Ensemble Kalman Filter and Four-Dimensional Variational, the inverted biomass of the rice biomass hyperspectral inversion model and the localized WOFOST crop growth model were assimilated, and the simulation results of the WOFOST model were corrected. With the average yield as the goal, use the WOFOST model to formulate fertilization decisions and create a fertilization prescription map to achieve precise fertilization during the tillering stage of rice. The research results indicate that the training set R2 and RMSE of the rice biomass hyperspectral inversion model are 0.953 and 0.076, respectively, while the testing set R2 and RMSE are 0.914 and 0.110, respectively. When obtaining the same yield, the fertilization strategy based on the ENKF assimilation method applied less fertilizer, reducing 5.9% compared to the standard fertilization scheme. This study enhances the rationality of unmanned aerial vehicle remote sensing machines through data assimilation, providing a new theoretical basis for the decision-making of rice fertilization.

Simulating the Responses of Rice Yield and Nitrogen Fates to the Ground Cover Rice Production System under Different Precipitation Year Types

The ground cover rice production system (GCRPS) has considerable potential for securing rice production in hilly mountainous areas. However, its impact on yields and N fates remains uncertain under varying rainfall conditions. A two-year field experiment (2021–2022) was carried out in Ziyang, Sichuan Province, located in the hilly mountains of southwest China. The experiment included two cultivation methods: conventional flooding paddy (Paddy, W1) and GCRPS (W2). These methods were combined with three N management practices: N1, no-N fertilizer; N2, 135 kg urea N per hm2 as a base fertilizer; and N3, 135 kg urea N per hm2 with split application for W1 and 67.5 kg N per hm2 of urea and chicken manure separately for W2. The WHCNS (soil water heat carbon nitrogen simulator) model was calibrated and validated to simulate ponding water depth, soil water storage, soil mineral N content, leaf area index, aboveground dry matter, crop N uptake, and rice yield. Subsequently, this model was used to simulate the responses of rice yield and N fates to GCRPS under different precipitation year types using meteorological data from 1980 to 2018. The results indicated that the WHCNS model performed well in simulating crop growth and N fates for both Paddy and GCRPS. Compared with Paddy, GCRPS reduced N leaching (35.1%–54.9%), ammonia volatilization (0.7%–13.6%), N runoff (71.1%–83.5%), denitrification (3.8%–6.7%), and total N loss (33.8%–56.9%) for all precipitation year types. However, GCRPS reduced crop N uptake and yield during wet years, while increasing crop N uptake and yield during dry and normal years. Fertilizer application reduced the stability and sustainability of rice yield in wet years, but increased the stability and sustainability of rice yield in dry and normal years. In conclusion, GCRPS is more suitable for normal and dry years in the study region with increasing rice yield and reducing N loss.

Modeling maize growth and nitrogen dynamics using CERES-Maize (DSSAT) under diverse nitrogen management options in a conservation agriculture-based maize-wheat system

Agricultural field experiments are costly and time-consuming, and often struggling to capture spatial and temporal variability. Mechanistic crop growth models offer a solution to understand intricate crop-soil-weather system, aiding farm-level management decisions throughout the growing season. The objective of this study was to calibrate and the Crop Environment Resource Synthesis CERES-Maize (DSSAT v 4.8) model to simulate crop growth, yield, and nitrogen dynamics in a long-term conservation agriculture (CA) based maize system. The model was also used to investigate the relationship between, temperature, nitrate and ammoniacal concentration in soil, and nitrogen uptake by the crop. Additionally, the study explored the impact of contrasting tillage practices and fertilizer nitrogen management options on maize yields. Using field data from 2019 and 2020, the DSSAT-CERES-Maize model was calibrated for plant growth stages, leaf area index-LAI, biomass, and yield. Data from 2021 were used to evaluate the model's performance. The treatments consisted of four nitrogen management options, viz., N0 (without nitrogen), N150 (150 kg N/ha through urea), GS (Green seeker-based urea application) and USG (urea super granules @150kg N/ha) in two contrasting tillage systems, i.e., CA-based zero tillage-ZT and conventional tillage-CT. The model accurately simulated maize cultivar’s anthesis and physiological maturity, with observed value falling within 5% of the model’s predictions range. LAI predictions by the model aligned well with measured values (RMSE 0.57 and nRMSE 10.33%), with a 14.6% prediction error at 60 days. The simulated grain yields generally matched with measured values (with prediction error ranging from 0 to 3%), except for plots without nitrogen application, where the model overestimated yields by 9–16%. The study also demonstrated the model's ability to accurately capture soil nitrate–N levels (RMSE 12.63 kg/ha and nRMSE 12.84%). The study concludes that the DSSAT-CERES-Maize model accurately assessed the impacts of tillage and nitrogen management practices on maize crop’s growth, yield, and soil nitrogen dynamics. By providing reliable simulations during the growing season, this modelling approach can facilitate better planning and more efficient resource management. Future research should focus on expanding the model's capabilities and improving its predictions further.

Calibration, testing and application of the AquaCrop model for bean crop under irrigation regimes.

Crop growth simulation models relate the soil-water-plant-atmosphere components to estimate the development and yield of plants in different scenarios, enabling the identification of efficient irrigation strategies. The aim of this study was to calibrate crop coefficients for a common bean cultivar (IAPAR 57) and assess the AquaCrop model's efficacy in simulating crop growth under different irrigation regimes (T0 - non-irrigated, T1-fully irrigated, and T2-deficit irrigated) and sowing dates (S1-March 21, S2-April 24, and S3-August 23). Successful calibration was achieved for crop seasons with suitable temperatures to crop growth (S1 and S3). However, during periods with suboptimal temperatures (April 24 season), coupled with reduced irrigation supply (T0 and T2), the AquaCrop model did not appropriately account for the combined effects of thermal and water stresses. Despite adjustments to stress coefficients, this led to an overestimation of crop growth and yield. In long-term simulations, the model successfully replicated the variability of crop water availability over cropping seasons, reflecting the impact of precipitation variations. It recommended irrigation strategies for the study region (irrigate at depletion of 120 and 170% of readily available water for sowing on March 21 and August 24, respectively) to achieve high crop yield (> 2,769kgha-1) and water productivity (1,050 to 1,445kgm-3) with minimal application depths (< 150mm). While acknowledging the need for improvements in thermal stress calculations, the AquaCrop model demonstrates promising utility in studies and applications where water availability significantly influences crop production.

Improving prediction accuracy of CSM-CERES-Wheat model for water and nitrogen response using a modified Penman-Monteith equation in a semi-arid region

Context or problemThe implementation of crop models for water and nitrogen management are important in preserving water resources and reducing groundwater pollution. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) is a collection of field-scale process-based crop models that simulate crop growth and yield in response to water and nitrogen management as well as many other factors. Objective or research questionThe objective of this study was to improve the simulation of irrigation and nitrogen fertilizer effects on growth and yield of winter wheat using locally modified Penman-Monteith (PM) equation. Specifically, we focused on improving the estimation of ETo using a locally modified Penman-Monteith (PM) equation in the CSM-CERES-Wheat model. MethodsField measured data from a two-year experiment (2009–2010 and 2010–2011) in a semi-arid region were used to calibrate and evaluate the CSM-CERES-Wheat model in a region with strong advective condition. In this experiment, the irrigation treatments were 1.2, 1.0, 0.8, 0.5 times by full irrigation requirements and rain-fed, and nitrogen treatments were 0, 46, 92, and 136 kg N ha−1. ResultsUsing the CSM-CERES-Wheat model with the unmodified PM equation resulted in some growth variables such as: aboveground dry matter, grain yield, and grain nitrogen uptake with high normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 0.51, 0.35, and 0.32, respectively. However, using the modified PM equation for ETo module under semi-arid condition improved the soil water content estimation and the model outputs, such as the above ground dry matter, grain yield and grain nitrogen uptake with NRMSE of 0.2, 0.15 and 0.16, respectively, that are accurate. This modification provided more accurate estimations, particularly in our experimental site in semi-aid region with strong advective conditions. ConclusionsThe findings of this study indicated that the locally modified PM equation in the CSM-CERES-Wheat model enhanced the accuracy of estimating irrigation and nitrogen fertilizer on the growth and yield of winter wheat. By improving the estimation of ETo value, the model's performance in simulating crop responses to water and nitrogen management was significantly enhanced. Implications or significanceThe utilization of the accurately estimated ETo value of the modified PM equation has significant importance in the practical application of the CSM-CERES-Wheat model. Furthermore, this modification greatly enhances the accuracy of model outputs, particularly at our experimental site located in a semi-arid region with robust advective conditions.

Multi-year mapping of cropping systems in regions with smallholder farms from Sentinel-2 images in Google Earth engine

ABSTRACT Accurate acquisition of spatial and temporal distribution information for cropping systems is important for agricultural production and food security. The challenges of extracting information about cropping systems in regions with smallholder farms are considerable, given the varied crops, complex cropping patterns, and the fragmentation of cropland with frequent reclamation and abandonment. This study presents a specialized workflow to solve this problem for regions with smallholder farms, which utilizes field samples and Sentinel-2 data to extract cropping system information over multiple years. The workflow involves four steps: 1) processing Sentinel-2 data to simulate crop growth curves with the Savitzky‒Golay filter and computing feature variables for classification, including phenology indices, spectral bands, and time series of vegetation indices; 2) mapping annual croplands with one-class support vector machine; 3) mapping various cropping patterns, including single cropping, intercropping, double cropping, multiple harvest, and fallow by decision tree and K-means clustering; and 4) mapping crops with random forest where Jeffries-Matusita distance was used to select appropriate vegetation indices. The workflow was applied in the Hetao irrigation district in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China from 2018 to 2021. The overall accuracies were 0.98, 0.96, and 0.97 for cropland, cropping patterns, and crop type mapping, respectively. The mapping results indicated that the study area has low cropping continuity and is dominated by single cropping patterns. Furthermore, the area of wheat cultivation has decreased, and vegetable cultivation has expanded. Overall, the proposed workflow facilitated the accurate acquisition of cropping system information in regions with smallholder farms and demonstrated the effectiveness of available Sentinel-2 imagery in classifying complex cropping patterns. The workflow is available on Google Earth Engine.

Impact of calibrating a low-cost capacitance-based soil moisture sensor on AquaCrop model performance

Sensor data and agro-hydrological modeling have been combined to improve irrigation management. Crop water models simulating crop growth and production in response to the soil-water environment need to be parsimonious in terms of structure, inputs and parameters to be applied in data scarce regions. Irrigation management using soil moisture sensors requires them to be site-calibrated, low-cost, and maintainable. Therefore, there is a need for parsimonious crop modeling combined with low-cost soil moisture sensing without losing predictive capability.This study calibrated the low-cost capacitance-based Spectrum Inc. SM100 soil moisture sensor using multiple least squares and machine learning models, with both laboratory and field data. The best calibration technique, field-based piece-wise linear regression (calibration r2 = 0.76, RMSE = 3.13 %, validation r2 = 0.67, RMSE = 4.57 %), was used to study the effect of sensor calibration on the performance of the FAO AquaCrop Open Source (AquaCrop-OS) model by calibrating its soil hydraulic parameters.This approach was tested during the wheat cropping season in 2018, in Kanpur (India), in the Indo-Gangetic plains, resulting in some best practices regarding sensor calibration being recommended. The soil moisture sensor was calibrated best in field conditions against a secondary standard sensor (UGT GmbH. SMT100) taken as a reference (r2 = 0.67, RMSE = 4.57 %), followed by laboratory calibration against gravimetric soil moisture using the dry-down (r2 = 0.66, RMSE = 5.26 %) and wet-up curves respectively (r2 = 0.62, RMSE = 6.29 %). Moreover, model overfitting with machine learning algorithms led to poor field validation performance. The soil moisture simulation of AquaCrop-OS improved significantly by incorporating raw reference sensor and calibrated low-cost sensor data. There were non-significant impacts on biomass simulation, but water productivity improved significantly. Notably, using raw low-cost sensor data to calibrate AquaCrop led to poorer performances than using the literature. Hence using literature values could save sensor costs without compromising model performance if sensor calibration was not possible. The results suggest the essentiality of calibrating low-cost soil moisture sensors for crop modeling calibration to improve crop water productivity.

Spatial prediction of winter wheat yield gap: agro-climatic model and machine learning approaches.

This study aimed to identify the most influential soil and environmental factors for predicting wheat yield (WY) in a part of irrigated croplands in southwest Iran, using the FAO-Agro-Climate method and machine learning algorithms (MLAs). A total of 60 soil samples and wheat grain (1m × 1m) in 1200ha of Pasargad plain were collected and analyzed in the laboratory. Attainable WY was assessed using the FAO method for the area. Pearson correlation analysis was used to select the best set of soil properties for modeling. Topographic attributes and vegetation indices were used as proxies of landscape components and cover crop to map actual WY in the study area. Two well-known MLAs, random forest (RF) and artificial neural networks (ANNs), were utilized to prepare an actual continuous WY map. The k-fold method was used to determine the uncertainty of WY prediction and quantify the quality of prediction accuracy. Results showed that soil organic carbon (SOC) and total nitrogen (TN) had a positive and significant correlation with WY. The SOC, TN, normalized different vegetation index (NDVI), and channel network base level (CHN) were recognized as the most important predictors and justifying more than 50% of actual WY. The ANNs outperformed the RF algorithm with an R 2 of 0.75, RMSE of 400 (kg ha-1), and RPD of 2.79, according to statistical indices. The uncertainty analysis showed that the maximum uncertainty of the prediction map [400 (kg ha-1)] was very low compared to the mean value [4937 (kg ha-1)] of WY map. Calculation yield gap using the FAO-agro-climatic model showed that the average yield gap of the region was about 50% of actual yield. The findings of this study demonstrated that integrating simulated attainable crop growth using crop model and a set of soil and environmental covariates with the ANNs algorithm can effectively predict WY gaps in large areas with acceptable and reasonable accuracy. The study emphasizes that the implementation of efficient management practices has the potential to enhance agricultural production in the study area and similar regions. These results represent a significant advancement of sustainable agriculture and provide valuable insights for ensuring global food security.

Evaluating the Yields of the Rainfed Potato Crop under Climate Change Scenarios Using the AquaCrop Model in the Peruvian Altiplano

Ensuring global food security and adapting to the challenges posed by climate change, particularly in rainfed agriculture, are paramount concerns. This research investigates the impacts of climate change on the yield of the potato crop variety Imilla Negra (Solanum tuberosum spp.) under the extreme climatic conditions of the Peruvian Altiplano. From the experimentation in six crop plots under a rainfed agricultural system, periodic crop growth parameter measurements were obtained from 2017 to 2018. The results showed a good performance of the AquaCrop model in the calibration and validation, successfully simulating crop growth and yield parameters. Climate projections showed precipitation decreases and temperature and evapotranspiration increases for the representative concentration pathway (RCP), RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios in 2023–2050. A comparison of crop yields between the base period (2006–2021) and the period 2023–2037 showed no significant changes, whereas a more considerable decrease was observed for the period 2038–2050. It is concluded that climate change generates moderate impacts on potato crop yields under the rainfed agricultural system in the Peruvian Altiplano due to the average reduction in precipitation.

Enhancing WOFOST crop model with unscented Kalman filter assimilation of leaf area index

ABSTRACT The challenging task of early yield prediction is an essential problem for present-day agriculture. It is commonly solved with a crop model along with relevant observation data: field scouting, in-situ sensors, satellite imagery data and information from previous growing seasons. Crop growth simulation models benefit greatly from application of these data; however, only a limited number of established data assimilation procedures receive notable application. Most studies focus on model parameter calibration, machine learning, ensemble Kalman filters (EnKF) or particle filters. These methods are powerful yet computationally expensive, which limits their extensive application. In this study, we bring into consideration a modern KF variant – the unscented Kalman filter (UKF). We implement the UKF data assimilation for leaf area index (LAI) within WOFOST PCSE model. To demonstrate its efficiency, we conduct simulations with EnKF and UKF assimilation of Sentinel-2 LAI data and compare the results to actual historical yield data of five crops on 2740 fields. Also, a field-level numerical experiment is set up to demonstrate the influence of LAI assimilation on the predicted yield. The results indicate the proposed approach performs consistently and significantly improves the accuracy of predicted yields.