Critical Infrastructure Sites Research Articles

Wood bioenergy for rural energy resilience: Suitable site selection and potential economic impacts in Appalachian Kentucky

Improving energy resilience, especially for rural communities, is a political, economic, and ecological priority, involving shifting energy portfolios away from fossil fuel dominance, reducing the environmental footprint of energy production and transmission, and localizing production and supply systems. In the Appalachian region, bioenergy systems, especially those involving woody biomass, may be key to improving energy resilience. However, because of its low population density and rugged topography, the region presents challenges to implementing biomass-based energy systems. This study was designed to identify critical infrastructure sites in Appalachian Kentucky with sufficient regional woody biomass supply to support reliable electricity generation. First, spatial analysis prioritized optimal biomass transportation distance, identifying 19 critical infrastructure sites in a region with feedstock supply suitable for a 100kWh unit, 4 of which were suitable for a 2MWh production unit. Second, economic analysis suggests that implementation of a woody biomass-based energy system in this region could have overall positive economic impacts. Future studies should elucidate in greater detail the local and regional economic impacts at each candidate site identified in this analysis, considering additional costs such as start-up and maintenance, and theoretical policy and incentive frameworks such as carbon emissions targets and subsidies.

Ensemble forecast for storm tide and resurgence from Tropical Cyclone Isaias

Ensemble-based probabilistic forecasting of storm surge is increasingly being used to provide metrics for emergency management decisions such as the near-worst case scenario. The Stevens Flood Advisory System is an ensemble prediction system used to forecast total water levels over a broad coastal region and street-scale flood levels for several New York Harbor (NYH) critical infrastructure sites. As a part of our continuous assessment of this system’s performance, we evaluate its prediction of storm tide and resurgence during Tropical Cyclone Isaias (2020), which tracked northward along the Pennsylvania/New Jersey border and caused the largest storm surge in NYH since Hurricane Sandy. Isaias specific track and speed generated an unusual flood event consisting of a storm surge, a blowout, then a significant resurgence that caused minor flooding. The analysis shows that the super-ensemble spread provided an equal or better estimate of uncertainties than sub-ensembles based only on any single meteorological forcing system. Because of ensemble averaging, the central forecast under-predicted peak water levels and the resurgence peak though these were predicted by some of the ensemble members. The impacts of errors in forecast storm arrival time and resolution-related biases in coarse global atmospheric models on the predictions are noted. A limited comparison for this single storm with the National Hurricane Center’s forecast show SFAS providing better accuracy and spread. Advantages and challenges of SFAS and other similar mid-latitude flood forecast systems are identified along with recommendations for analysis and improvement.

Low-Cost Automatic Slope Monitoring Using Vector Tracking Analyses on Live-Streamed Time-Lapse Imagery

Identifying precursor events that allow the timely forecasting of landslides, thereby enabling risk reduction, is inherently difficult. Here we present a novel, low cost, flow visualization technique using time-lapsed imagery (TLI) that allows real time analysis of slope movement. This approach is applied to the Rest and Be Thankful slope, Argyle, Scotland, where past debris flows have blocked the A83 or forced preemptive closure. TLI of the Rest and Be Thankful are taken from a fixed station, 28 mm lens, time lapse camera every 15 min. Imagery is filtered to counter the effects of misalignment from wind induced vibration of the camera, asymmetric lighting, and fog. Particle image velocimetry (PIV) algorithms are then run to produce slope movement velocity vectors. PIV generated vectors are automatically post-processed to separate vectors generated by slope movement from false positives generated by harsh environmental conditions. Results for images over a 20-day period indicated precursor slope movement initiated by a rainfall event, a period of quiescence for 10 days, followed by a large landslide failure during proceeding rainfall where over 3000 tons of sediment reached the road. Results suggest low cost, live streamed TLI and this novel PIV approach correctly detect and, importantly, report precursor slope movement, allowing early warning, effective management and landslide impact mitigation. Future applications of this technique will allow the development of an effective decision-making tool for asset management of the A83, reducing the risk to life of motorists. The technique can also be applied to other critical infrastructure sites, allowing hazard risk reduction.

Design and implementation of a traffic light system for deep geothermal well stimulation in Finland

We describe the design and implementation of a traffic light system (TLS) created for the stimulation phase of a 6.1-km-deep geothermal well in the Helsinki area, Finland. Because of the lack of local seismic data to calibrate the TLS, the TLS thresholds have been proposed on the basis of two parameters: acceptable ground motion levels and probabilities to reach these levels, which were then used to establish TLS magnitudes. A peak ground velocity (PGV) of 1 mm/s associated with a ML ≥ 1 event, or a ML ≥ 1.2 event alone, triggered an Amber alert. A PGV of 7.5 mm/s associated with a ML ≥ 2.1 event triggered a Red alert, where ML was a local “Helsinki” magnitude. Specific thresholds based on PGV and peak ground acceleration were gathered for critical infrastructure sites and related to earthquake magnitudes in a probabilistic way. The implementation of the TLS during the stimulation showed that the selected thresholds were reasonably conservative. Some of the Amber events were reportedly felt or heard, but the public opinion remained very favourable to the project. Measured ground motions were too low to have any impact on the built environment and the stimulation was able to proceed without being impaired by the occurrence of a Red event. Seismic data acquired during the stimulation and lessons learnt are presented and used to revisit the TLS thresholds for potential future stimulations.

A Next-Generation Coastal Ocean Operational System: Probabilistic Flood Forecasting at Street Scale

AbstractRecent hurricanes have demonstrated the need for real-time flood forecasting at street scale in coastal urban areas. Here, we describe the high-impact high-resolution (HIHR) system that operationally forecasts flooding at very high resolution in the New York–New Jersey metropolitan region. HIHR is the latest upgrade of the Stevens Flood Advisory System (SFAS), a highly detailed operational coastal ocean modeling system. SFAS, based on the Hydrologic–Hydraulic–Hydrodynamic Ensemble (H3E) modeling framework, consists of four sets of nested coastal and inland flood models that provide ensemble flood forecasts with a horizon of at least 96 h from regional to street scales based on forcing from 100 different meteorological output fields. HIHR includes nine model domains with horizontal resolution ranging from 3 to 10 m around critical infrastructure sites in the region. HIHR models are based on an advanced hydrodynamic code [the Stevens Estuarine and Coastal Ocean Model (sECOM), a derivative of the Princeton Ocean Model] and nested into the H3E models. HIHR was retrospectively evaluated by forecasting the coastal flooding caused by Superstorm Sandy in 2012 using water-level sensors, high-water marks, and flood maps. The forecasts for the 95th percentile show a good agreement with these observations even three days before the peak flood, while the 50th percentile is negatively biased because of the lack of resolution on the meteorological forcing. Forecasts became more accurate and less uncertain as the forecasts were issued closer to the peak flooding.

Underwater threat detection and tracking using multiple sensors and advanced processing

The vulnerability of military installations and critical infrastructure sites from underwater threats is now well accepted and, in order to combat these security weaknesses, there has been growing interest in—and adoption of—sonar technology. The well known challenges of the underwater environment, particularly in a harbor or port setting, can lead to a high Nuisance Alarm Rate (NAR). This, in turn, can lead to a lack of confidence from end users and a possibility that “real” alerts are incorrectly dismissed. In the past, this has been addressed by increasing the capability of individual sensors, leading to ever-increasing sensor complexity, however, the relationship between sensor performance and complexity/cost is highly non-linear. Even with the most complex and capable sensors, the fundamental limit to performance is often limited by acoustics, not sensor capability. In this paper, we describe an alternative approach to reducing NAR and improving detection of difficult targets (e.g., UUV’s), through intelligent combination and fusion of outputs from multiple sensors and data/signal processing algorithms. We describe the statistical basis for this approach, as well as techniques, methodologies and architectures for implementation. We describe the approach taken in our prototype algorithms/system, as well as quantitative and qualitative results from testing in a real-world environment. These results show a significant reduction in NAR and increase in classification/alert range.

Recent inquiries into the private security industry in Australia: Implications for regulation

The private security industry has come under increasing scrutiny in line with growth in the number of security providers and increasing dependence on private providers for crime prevention, including at critical infrastructure sites. Inquiries and research have shown the industry is vulnerable to misconduct and many jurisdictions have enlarged licensing requirements to guard against abuses. This article reports on recent inquiries into the industry in Australia, conducted by the Australian Crime Commission, the New South Wales Independent Commission against Corruption and the Fair Work Ombudsman. Using a variety of novel investigative techniques, the inquiries revealed a diverse range of problems, including criminal activity and infiltration by organised crime, corruption in security guard training and the exploitation of security staff through under-award payments. The extent of the misconduct obliges an upwards revision of the risk profile for the industry and demonstrates the importance of a more proactive and complex approach to regulation.

Policing Proliferation: On Militarization and Atomic Energy Canada Limited's Nuclear Response Forces

This paper describes the militarization of security and police forces occurring in Canada vis-à-vis regulation of the nuclear industry. Based on analysis of access to information requests, we investigate the operations of Nuclear Response Forces (NRFs) on nuclear sites in Canada, including the structural features of these NRFs, and their connections to local as well as national security and policing agencies. Our research explores the post–11 September 2001 impact of “design basis threat” assessment and counterterrorism policy on policing operations. Design basis threat assessment organizes security and policing practices according to adversarial models of military operation. We argue that the literature concerning militarization of policing must be extended to account for how the coordination of private and public security agencies as well as intelligence agencies at critical infrastructure sites facilitates the distribution of military technology and strategy across numerous scales of policing. Commenting on how militarization of security vis-à-vis nuclear proliferation in Canada is affecting some rural police forces, we contend that the design basis threat model of counterterrorism is transforming the strategy and operations of some local police forces working in jurisdictions near nuclear sites.