Conditions Of Crisis Research Articles

PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION UNDER MILITARY THREATS: UKRAINIAN EXPERIENCE OF ADAPTING TO CRISIS SITUATIONS

The article examines the Ukrainian experience of public administration under conditions of military threat as of 2022-2024. The key challenges faced by Ukraine during the full-scale war are analyzed, including the destruction of critical infrastructure and the need to ensure uninterrupted provision of public services. Special attention is paid to the digitization of public administration, which played a decisive role in maintaining the stability of state institutions. The role of the «Action» platform and other innovative solutions that enabled interaction between citizens and the government in crisis conditions is described. The impact of decentralization on the ability of local authorities to respond to the challenges of war has been studied. The interaction with international partners within the framework of the SIGMA program, which is aimed at providing support in the reform of public administration with a course towards European integration, is characterized. A comparative analysis of the Ukrainian experience with other European countries that faced large-scale crises was carried out, and unique aspects of the Ukrainian model of adaptation were revealed. The article analyzes strategies for the restoration and modernization of the state administration of Ukraine in crisis conditions. Attention is focused on the interaction between the state and corporate sectors to maintain economic activity even in conditions of active hostilities. The role of business relocation to safer regions and the influence of state support on the stabilization of the labor market and the economy are outlined. Programs aimed at restoring infrastructure and vital services in cooperation with international partners are mentioned. The experience of implementing temporary solutions to ensure the basic needs of the population is described. It examines the impact of international aid and financial support through IMF and World Bank programs that helped maintain budget stability and avoid economic collapse. The perspectives of public administration during Ukraine's integration into European structures and further strengthening of public administration are highlighted. Special attention is paid to the prospects for the development of public administration in the post-war period, the solution of socio-economic problems, the restoration of infrastructure and the attraction of investments. Strategic directions for reforming public administration for the future are proposed, taking into account the experience of the war and cooperation with international institutions.

COURSE «MANAGING CONFLICTS IN CRISIS CONDITIONS» IN THE PROFESSIONAL TRAINING SYSTEM OF SPECIALTIES 053 «PSYCHOLOGY»

The article presents an analysis of the theoretical and methodological aspects of teaching the educational discipline «Managing conflicts in crisis conditions». The role of the academic discipline in the system of professional training of students who obtain a master's degree in the specialty 053 «Psychology is determined». The goal of the educational discipline is determined, which consists of acquiring competences in resolving conflicts, developing the ability to predict and control conflict situations in difficult life conditions, and promoting significant progress on the path of professional improvement. The dominant tasks of studying the discipline are highlighted: getting closer to the understanding of the professional necessity of in-depth study of the nature of the emergence and development of various conflicts; identifying the causes of conflicts; using different tactics, and conflict resolution technologies; mastering psychological techniques for getting out of conflict situations. It is noted that the educational material of the discipline «Managing conflicts in crisis conditions» is divided into two content modules, namely: 1. Basics of conflict theory; content module 2. Conflict management in crisis conditions. It is emphasized that the lectures on the discipline «Management of conflicts in crisis conditions» are conducted taking into account the problematic nature, dialogic communication, activation of the thinking and speaking activity of the master's students, namely: lecture-discussions with posing problematic questions, which help to direct the attention of the master's students to the key issues of the topic of the lecture session. A description of the tasks that master's students perform during practical classes is provided. An important place in the process of psychological training of future specialists in crisis psychology is given to the use of multimedia tools. It is proven that mastering the discipline «Management of conflicts in crisis conditions» by master's students is important in the professional formation of a specialist in crisis psychology, as it provides the necessary knowledge and skills to manage conflicts in difficult life situations and reduces the psychological suffering of people experiencing crises. We see the prospects for further study of the problem in the generalization of innovative approaches to improving the professional competence of future specialists in crisis psychology. Keywords: conflict, conflict management, specialist in crisis psychology, crisis, difficult living conditions, competencies, master's degree, independent work

THE FORMATION OF POSITIVE EXPECTATIONS AS A MOTIVATIONAL RESOURCE FOR PERSONNEL TRAINING

The purpose of the article: based on the analysis of the most popular theories of motivation to study, to show the role of the formation of positive expectations in adult study participants on motivation to study and its results. Motivation to study is understood as a hypothetical construction that consists of a general set of processes, methods, and means of motivating individuals to productive cognitive activity, and active assimilation of knowledge, which depends on the level of formation of their motivation to study, as well as the desire and desire to learn. One of the factors of motivation is expectations, which are interpreted as the result or its probability, what a person would like to get from his efforts and, accordingly, exactly what efforts he is ready to spend for this. The article examines the theories of activity motivation and learning motivation with a focus on the formation of positive learning expectations as a factor in motivating the learning activities of employees of enterprises. It analyzes how expectations affect the motivation of learning in adults, how they can be used in the formation of learning strategies, and which needs are the most critical for the formation of internal learning motivation. It was determined that according to the latest research, the most relevant expectations in the formation of educational motivation are the interaction of the need for autonomy, competence, social context, the practicality of acquired knowledge, the formation of a positive educational experience, and incorrectly formed expectations can be a powerful demotivating factor. Keywords: learning motivation, internal and external learning motives, learning motivation in crisis conditions

Sustainability of the real sector of the Russian economy: Economic security and sanctions realities

Aim. To investigate the essence of the real sector of the Russian economy and identify the features of its impact on achieving economic security under sanctions.Objectives. To determine the essence of the real sector of the economy and assess its contribution to the stability of the national economy under sanctions; to identify the stages of development of the real sector of the Russian economy; to form an approach to regulating the real sector in the context of achieving economic security.Methodology. The research uses methods of comparative, structural, functional, and historical (retrospective) analysis, as well as tools of systemic and institutional approaches.Results. The real sector of the economy includes the production of goods and services, its functioning is associated with the creation of new value. This distinguishes it from the virtual and financial sectors where real, tangible goods are not created and where, in fact, the product formed in the real sector is redistributed. In crisis conditions, the developed real sector serves as the basis for the functioning of the economy and the satisfaction of basic economic needs, its stability determines national economic security.Conclusions. In modern conditions, characterized by sanctions pressure on Russia from unfriendly countries, the real sector of the economy plays an important role in ensuring the stability of the country’s economy as a whole. Its dynamics largely determines protection against traditional and new (sanctions-related) threats and risks to economic security. At the same time, there is a need for government support and regulation of the development of the real sector, which is associated with many different difficulties. To increase the effectiveness of this regulation, a permanent search for a balance between the use of planned and market instruments is required, the development of a mixed system of economic regulation that combines the tools of market and planned approaches. This will make it possible for the state to flexibly and adaptively manage the process of ensuring national economic security.

NARRATIVE TECHNOLOGY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PERSONAL LIFE COMPETENCE

The article addresses the issue of developing personal life competence within the framework of the psychological-hermeneutic, specifically narrative, approach. The feasibility of using narrative technologies in the context of developing personal life competence is substantiated: by constructive problem-solving, effective setting and solving of life tasks, strengthening psychological resilience, enhancing self-awareness and reflection, and building productive adaptive strategies during the prolonged war in Ukraine. The article characterizes the author's narrative technology as "Core Personal Questions," aimed at developing personal life competence through self-reflection, defining personal values, motives, and goals, and forming a holistic self-image. The proposed technology helps individuals understand their own experiences, current resources, beliefs, behavioral strategies, self-presentations, and life and personal projects, which is of significant importance during the war. The narrative technology "Core Personal Questions" is directed towards constructing retrospective, current, and prospective self-narratives, through which the understanding of life and personal experiences, determination of meaningful priorities and prospects, and adaptation to the current crisis conditions occur. The use of this technology involves the development of personal life competence in three dimensions: routine-selective, adaptive, and innovative. The methodological tools are based on key questions, the search for answers to which fosters self-reflection, independent setting, clarification, and redefinition of the main life tasks by the individual. The article illustrates the possibilities of applying the proposed narrative technology in working with vulnerable populations during the war in Ukraine. Keywords: personality, life competence, development, dimensions of development, reflection, narrative, narrative technologies, personal questions, war in Ukraine

Building a New Ideology in the conditions of a Transitional State-Legal System (the Case Study of the Russian Republic in February — October 1917)

The paper presents the author’s point of view regarding the spiritual sphere of Russian society, changes in which were caused by the crisis resulting from the revolutionary events of February 1917, and the related experience of building a new ideology in the conditions of the transitional state law system in the Russian state in March-October 1917. The author, based on the study of a wide range of sources, critically analyzed this experience and made a number of conclusions: such construction in the conditions of permanent spiritual crisis was difficult and it was conditioned by a set of factors, namely, political, socio-economic, cultural-religious, etc. The author’s analysis of this experience was based on the study of a wide range of sources. The state of a state law anomie, that can rightly be considered one of the characteristic features of the transitional state-legal system, was the result of a deep spiritual, religious, ideological, cultural conflict that emerged, starting from the first days of the formation of the «new» Russian state, and the resulting spiritual vacuum and situation of ideological and religious uncertainty. The changing position of the Russian Orthodox Church in relation to the new bourgeois government and its reformist plans due to the political situation also contributed to the deepening of the spiritual crisis in Russian post-revolutionary society. The emphatically indifferent position of the Russian clergy towards the Provisional Government once again emphasized the unpopularity of its decisions in the eyes of society, deprived its projects of ideological support. Thus, this contributed to the loss of the government’s authority among the population. Under such conditions, all attempts of the central government to form a new post-revolutionary bourgeois-republican ideology were unsuccessful.

The Impact of the Difficult Economic Situation on the Operation of Slovak Companies in the Shadow of War

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to examine the organizational and human resource (HR) responses to the challenging economic conditions caused by the war and the COVID-19 pandemic. Given the limited evidence available on how organizations adapt to such crises, this research aims to develop a conceptual model and empirically investigate the influence of two specific factors: organizational size and direct economic ties with the Russian and Ukrainian markets. Methodology: This study employs a mixed-method approach, combining both theoretical and empirical research. A conceptual model was first developed to outline potential organizational reactions to crisis conditions. The empirical part of the study involved data collection from 128 organizations, including companies and institutions, in Slovakia. The analysis was conducted to test two hypotheses regarding how organizational size and economic connections with the Russian and Ukrainian markets affect organizational and HR responses in times of war. Findings: The findings of the study indicate that neither organizational size nor direct economic linkages with the Russian and Ukrainian markets significantly influenced the responses of the organizations studied to the economic difficulties caused by the war. This suggests that other factors may play a more critical role in shaping organizational and HR strategies in response to crises. Implications for theory and practice: For theory, this study contributes to the existing literature by challenging the assumption that organizational size and direct economic ties to conflict-affected markets are primary determinants of organizational responses to crisis. For practice, the findings suggest that managers and HR professionals need to consider a broader range of factors beyond size and market exposure when developing strategies to cope with economic disruptions caused by global crises. Originality and value: This research is original in its focus on the specific impacts of war and pandemic-induced economic conditions on organizations in Slovakia. The study provides valuable insights into how organizations navigate crises, expanding the understanding of crisis management and organizational adaptability. It adds value by highlighting the need for more comprehensive models that consider a wider array of factors influencing organizational behavior in times of global economic disruption.

THE INDICATOR APPROACH TO ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC SECURITY OF ENTERPRISES

In the conditions of market instability, competitive pressure, financial crises and other external and internal challenges, an important component of the stability and development of the enterprise is economic security, which is the subject of research in the article. It was found that the assessment of economic security helps to adapt to the existing conditions and gives the ability to quickly eliminate various threats, which ensures the stable operation of the enterprise. The study of literature sources revealed that there are many methods for assessing the economic security of enterprises, but one of the most effective is the indicator approach. This approach is based on the analysis and interpretation of a number of key indicators that allow determining the state of various areas of the enterprise. The indicator approach is a systematic approach to assessing economic security by analyzing a set of indicators that reflect the state of the enterprise in key areas of its activity. Indicators are quantitative indicators that characterize the state of individual spheres of the enterprise's functioning and allow to evaluate them as a whole. The indicator approach is universal and can be adapted to the specifics of various industries and enterprises. This makes it an effective tool for a wide range of enterprises, regardless of their size, structure or field of activity. The assessment of economic security through indicators allows enterprise managers to make more accurate and well-founded management decisions, which contributes to strengthening their resistance to external and internal challenges. The application of the indicator approach not only increases the sustainability of the enterprise in the short term, but also contributes to the development of long-term strategies that take into account both current and future risks. The indicator approach allows for a comprehensive and systematic assessment of the state of economic security and covers key aspects of the enterprise's activity - financial, production, personnel, legal and other areas. This provides a deep understanding of the current state of the enterprise and its vulnerabilities. Depending on the significance of the threats and the subjective preferences of the authors and the specifics of the industry, the choice and method of grouping indicators for assessing the level of economic security of the enterprise differ significantly.

The third integrative wave in sociology’s development. Part II. Theories and methods for an augmented social reality

The article is analyzing positive prospects of the sociology’s development in the context of today’s fragmentation of scientific discipline under conditions of metaparadigm crisis and post-globalization. Current disintegration in sociology is provoked by the rising postcolonial discourse, by attempts to stigmatize western classics and to create theoretical alternatives to the ‘global North’ domination in knowledge production as well as by spread of conceptions opposing social reality of networks and flows to classical sociality of structures and agency (M. Castells, B. Latour, J. Urry, K. Knorr Cetina). The third in the modern sociology’s history integrative wave is expected to come in the 2020s displacing tendencies of disintegration, discrimination, growing gaps and rising barriers. Now theories are relevant as they create a coherent configuration of four types of structures: institutions, interactions, networks, and flows. The new subject matter for theorizing is constituted by their interconnections in forms of fields of structurations, scapes of assemblages, communications, platforms, projects, and events. After the ideas of the end of Modernity and multiple Modernities, the idea of augmented Modernity emarges overcoming constitutive distinctions of the last century’s sociology: local vs. global, system vs. lifeworld, material vs. symbolic, private vs. public, real vs. virtual, physical vs. digital, et ctr. Mutual penetration of different social structures stimulates elaboration and implementation of innovative hybrid methods directed towards an augmented data collecting and analysis.

Integrating Learning and Serious Game Design: The Development and Application of the Learning and Game Integration (LGI) Framework using the ‘Blackout’ Serious Game

Serious games are increasingly recognised as effective educational tools capable of simulating complex scenarios that traditional methods cannot replicate. This paper introduces the Learning and Game Integration (LGI) Framework, designed to seamlessly integrate educational content with interactive game design. Utilising the “Blackout” serious game, which simulates real world complex problem, this study demonstrates how the LGI Framework can be utilised as learning intervention to enhance learning by teaching Design Thinking to university students. The framework consists of four stages: Educational Content Integration, Theoretical Underpinning, Case Study Selection, and Game Design. The “Blackout” game enables students to engage with various stakeholder perspectives, deeply analyse problems, and develop innovative solutions under crisis conditions. Preliminary feedback from its implementation in an undergraduate business course (N=753) indicates increased student engagement and confidence in applying Design Thinking concepts. This paper contributes to the field of business education by presenting an innovative approach to teaching innovative problem-solving skills through serious games, emphasising the need for holistic educational frameworks that bridge theoretical learning with real-world application.

Reform of control (supervisory) activities: orientation towards a balance of interests of the parties

This article analyzes the key legislative acts adopted following the completion of the next large-scale stage of reform of control (supervisory) activities, from the perspective of considering in them the problem of the relationship between private and public interests, as well as finding a balance in their provision during the socio-economic crisis. The author focuses on issues related to updating the system of mandatory requirements for business as part of the implementation of the “regulatory guillotine” mechanism, taking into account the introduction of digital technologies into the established sphere. The result of the work is the conclusion that, taking into account the complex nature of business legislation and the need to maintain economic growth rates in conditions of a socio-economic crisis, the main task of the state is to create a favorable business, investment and entrepreneurial climate, including through compliance with reasonable legislation balance of public and private interests.

Frontline Worker Discretion in the For‐Profit Banking Industry: Lessons From Early Pandemic Relief Programming

ABSTRACTIn April and May 2020, the United States banking industry approved over $650 billion in federal relief funds as part of the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). Since then, extensive evidence of discriminatory lending has been revealed by investigative journalism and academic studies. Our study is based on 41 interviews with frontline banking professionals conducted during the days and weeks of the PPP rollout. We find that under the crisis conditions of the pandemic, capped funds in the PPP and built‐in incentives that encouraged certain types of loans, banking employees relied upon the professional norms and logic of the for‐profit sector. We argue that these norms and logics threatened the integrity of the PPP as a public relief programme by applying profit‐oriented priorities to resources marked for universal and fair distribution. Our findings offer new directions for theorising sector‐level differences in street‐level bureaucratic discretion in the context of mixed‐sector collaboration on public service delivery, particularly under conditions of crisis and urgency.

взаимодействие внутригосударственного и международного права в Таджикистане в условиях глобализации и мировых вызовов

The interaction of international and domestic law being a central issue of legal doctrine and practice has always attracted the attention of legal scholars, which indicated the relevance of its study both within the framework of international and national legal systems. The relevance of their interaction is doubly increased when, in the conditions of international legal crisis and conflicts, the influence of international law on interstate relations is minimized, and politicians, diplomats, scientists and the world community in general began to doubt its legal effectiveness in regulating international relations. In modern conditions in the process of interaction between international and domestic law, the state begins to proceed from national interests and primarily in the regulation of social relations began to rely on national legal systems. Hence, there is a need to reconsider the forms and mechanisms of interaction between international and domestic law, which were formulated in the middle of the last century and as it seems to us are no longer able to regulate the new social relations of not only the new century, but the new millennium.

Semantics of Transition: Death and Resurrection of the Hero in Film Fantasy at the Turn of the 20th—21st Centuries

The article is devoted to the study of human metaphysical experience through cinema art. The material of the study is widely known fantasy films (“The Lord of the Rings”, “The Matrix”, “Harry Potter”, “The Chronicles of Narnia”, “Avatar”), in which the sacral space is realized as a magical fairy tale or a dream, and the hero acting in it is identified with the concept of “soul” or “consciousness”. The aim of the study is to semantically and cognitively analyze the visual image of transition through death, which is offered to the viewer by cinematography, and to model the director’s concepts included in it. The author’s concept of transition is based on the works of M. Eliade, A. van Gennep, C.G. Jung, M.P. Hall and is revealed as a multi-phase process of soul transformation in the conditions of spiritual or perceptual crisis. It is established that the transition scenario in the films considered includes an “entry point” into another world, a series of initiations and an “exit point”. In this context, death and resurrection are the climactic phase and have different symbolic connotations, their essence depending on the prototype that the hero imitates. As it has been revealed, the imitation of cyclical forces of nature (solar, agrarian deities) by contemporary directors is interpreted by them as a long stage of soul maturation, which is no longer opposed to, but naturally precedes the imitation of the “divine archetype” (in the Christian tradition, Christ the Saviour). The axis of transition from forced submission to the endless cycle of renewal to the evolutionary stage of spiritual maturity is the act of “awakening” expressed in the willingness to voluntarily sacrifice oneself out of love and compassion for others. Death and resurrection in this case manifest the metaphysical transformation of the soul aspect into the spiritual one. At the same time, in the process of studying the film material, a tendency of a transgressive nature was detected, namely the replacement of the concept “soul” by the concept “brain”. As a result of identifying the functions of the human brain with the functions of a computer in the mental space, there is a danger of substitution of the divine image by artificial intelligence, which can provoke the blocking of the channel “soul – spirit” and the involutionary turn from spirit to matter.

COMPARATIVE LEGAL ANALYSIS OF TAX MEASURES TAKEN IN CRISIS CONDITIONS

The world's economic and legal systems are facing a huge challenge to overcome the negative consequences imposed by recent social distortions. In 2020, what started as a health crisis quickly turned into an economic-social problem where an express response was required to ensure the functioning of social actors. This economic-social crisis was followed in a short period by new security crises with additional consequences on national systems. The response to the newly created conditions requires a multidisciplinary approach that will include measures of a health, economic, social, and security nature, adopted on the principles of legislation and expediency within the national legal systems. These measures have their own direct or indirect tax component. The purpose of this paper is to perform a legal analysis of the tax measures taken in the national systems. The scope of the research covers the member states and candidate countries for membership in the European Union. The focus is on the more recent crisis period, with particular emphasis on the COVID-19 period. The analysis primarily focuses on the legal element of the tax measures, the procedure of their implementation, and their legal nature. Also analyzed are the challenges that they have on the taxpayers and the administrative authority for their performance. The method of comparison in the paper is used to compare the similarities and differences between the tax measures in the different national systems and to detect the legal challenges imposed by the established crisis conditions. At the end, conclusions are given about the current situation and recommendations on how the establishment of tax systems should be in the future in crisis conditions.

Mental Health in Education for Crisis-affected Preschool Children: Multilevel Monitoring

Introduction: The crisis in Ukraine, related to military actions, poses a significant threat to the mental health of preschool children due to their vulnerability, limited self-awareness, and perception of their surroundings, as well as the critical developmental phase characterized by the establishment of foundational personality structures. Chronic stress and trauma can disrupt normal brain development, potentially leading to delays in cognitive and emotional development in the long term. Therefore, it is essential to systematically identify and analyze the negative factors affecting the mental development of preschool children across key domains, contributing to educational deficits and developmental gaps, and to design targeted interventions to solve those emerging issues. Purpose: The study is focused on the development and implementation of strategies for supporting, preserving, and enhancing the mental well-being of preschool children residing in areas proximate to armed conflict. The research underscores the importance of early and systematic monitoring across various levels (including children, families, educators, professional associations, and early childhood education institutions, including those with alternative forms of preschool education designed to accommodate crisis conditions). Methodology: Multilevel monitoring has encompassed 3,843 children situated in conditions detrimental to their mental health and development across seven frontline regions of Ukraine (Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Sumy, Kharkiv). This initiative is a part of a project by "All-Ukrainian Public Organization 'Association of Early Childhood Education Professionals'", with informational support from the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine and is being implemented in collaboration with the United Nations (UNICEF) project "Improving Access to Early Childhood Education Services in Emergencies and Early Recovery in Ukraine." Level 1 - initial, intermediate, and summative monitoring involved establishing the baseline developmental level of senior preschool children and identifying gaps across key areas, with subsequent measurement of progress and its correlation with interventions aimed at supporting and maintaining children’s mental health. Measurement of indicators was expressed through their manifestation at the minimum and maximum points for each child, with the establishment of an average score (average score = sum of all individual scores divided by the number of children). The average score reflects the overall performance between the lowest and highest indicators across children, educators, regions, and nationally. This analysis was conducted using a web-based spreadsheet program, Google Sheets, which is part of the Google Drive office suite." Level 2 - organizational and methodological monitoring focused on evaluating the methodological and organizational aspects of the educational process as fundamental factors in preventing negative impacts on children’s mental health. This was conducted using an electronic form developed in Google Forms, utilizing the Google Sheets web-based spreadsheet program, which is part of the Google Drive office suite. Level 3 - monitoring the quality of the educational process in early childhood education institutions using the ECERS-3 methodology, which allows for the analysis of comfort levels, developmental conditions, safety, and support for the mental health of preschool children. This involves an electronic Google Form equivalent to the paper-based ECERS-3 assessment; automatic calculations are performed according to the formulas specified by the international ECERS-3 methodology (Harms et al., 2020). Results: The study of the development of senior preschool children, based on the analysis of key domains through regular psychological and pedagogical observations and the use of diagnostic tools over a period of five months, enabled the identification of early signs of stress, anxiety, and other emotional manifestations. This assessment facilitated the evaluation of children's mental health and the development of a system of effective interventions to address the identified issues. Conclusion: The study underscores the importance of identifying personal characteristics of senior preschool children and developmental gaps across key domains to organize interventions and support measures aimed at preserving mental health, ensuring comprehensive development, and mitigating negative factors in crisis conditions. The results of the multilevel monitoring are valuable for updating educational practices and adapting them to crisis situations. Addressing the identified educational losses and gaps, including those related to social-emotional development and stress resilience, allows for the development of structured programs to counteract negative impacts and facilitate the recovery of preschool children

Hospital Strain During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Outcomes in Older Racial and Ethnic Minority Adults

Marginalized populations have been disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Critically ill patients belonging to racial and ethnic minority populations treated in hospitals operating under crisis or near-crisis conditions may have experienced worse outcomes than White individuals. To examine whether hospital strain was associated with worse outcomes for older patients hospitalized with sepsis and whether these increases in poor outcomes were greater for members of racial and ethnic minority groups compared with White individuals. In this cross-sectional study, multivariable regression analysis was conducted to assess differential changes in all-cause 30-day mortality and major morbidity among older racial and ethnic minoritized individuals hospitalized with sepsis compared with White individuals and changes in hospital strain using Medicare claims data. Data were obtained on patients hospitalized between January 1, 2016, and December 31, 2021, and analyzed between December 16, 2023, and July 11, 2024. Time-varying weekly hospital percentage of inpatients with COVID-19. Composite of all-cause 30-day mortality and major morbidity. Among the 5 899 869 hospitalizations for sepsis (51.5% women; mean [SD] age, 78.2 [8.8] years), there were 177 864 (3.0%) Asian, 664 648 (11.3%) Black, 522 964 (8.9%) Hispanic, and 4 534 393 (76.9%) White individuals. During weeks when the hospital COVID-19 burden was greater than 40%, the risk of death or major morbidity increased nearly 2-fold (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.90; 95% CI, 1.80-2.00; P < .001) for White individuals compared with before the pandemic. Asian, Black, and Hispanic individuals experienced 44% (AOR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.28-1.61; P < .001), 21% (AOR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.11-1.33; P < .001), and 45% (AOR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.32-1.59; P < .001) higher risk of death or morbidity, respectively, compared with White individuals when the hospital weekly COVID-19 burden was greater than 40%. In this cross-sectional study, older adults hospitalized with sepsis were more likely to die or experience major morbidity as the hospital COVID-19 burden increased. These increases in adverse outcomes were greater in magnitude among members of minority populations than for White individuals.

Comparative analysis of the predictive power of statistical models of macroeconomic indicators in conditions of permanent crises

Subject. The article discusses prediction of the state of the economy, the accuracy of forecasts of traditional models during crises, the need to find more effective model specifications to predict macro indicators. Objectives. The purpose is to carry out a comparative analysis of the predictive ability of ensemble methods in comparison with a set of models, including traditional statistical algorithms and machine learning algorithms. Methods. The comparative analysis of predictive ability of the models and interpretation of results obtained were performed using a dynamic factor model (DFM), a neural network with long-term short-term memory (LSTM), and integrated gradient methods (IG). Results. We performed the analysis of predictive ability of the ensemble model to forecast GDP, which combines DFM and LSTM to account for both linear and nonlinear dependencies in the data; the analysis of predictive power of various indicators, which showed that an increase in forecast error is observed for all models except DFM, the ensemble model with an error correction structure, and ARMAX. The obtained results can be used to build models of macroeconomic indicators in order to make strategic decisions by enterprises of various industries operating in a highly uncertain environment. Conclusions. The combination of DFM and LSTM in the ensemble provides higher accuracy forecasts than LSTM and competitor models, however, with less predictive power than DFM.

Sociology in the 21st century: between fragmentation and integration

The article is analyzing current sociology in the context of fragmentation and integration periods in the discipline history. The first integrative wave in the history of sociology was in the 1920s– 1950s. It appeared in grand theories by P.Sorokin, T.Parsons, the Frankfurt school which united heterogeneous ideas from classics in models of society as system. After the paradigm crisis of the 1960s– 1970s and following spread of postmodernist discourse, the second integrative wave arose in form of theories overcoming gaps between concepts of determinist structures and constructivist agency (J.Habermas, A.Giddens, P.Bourdieu) as well as in form of metatheorizing (G.Ritzer, P.Sztompka, J.Alexander). Today’s fragmentation of sociology under conditions of metaparadigm crisis and post-globalization is provoked by the rising postcolonial discourse, by attempts to stigmatize western classics and to create theoretical alternatives to the ‘global North’ domination in knowledge production as well as by spread of conceptions opposing social reality of networks and flows to classical sociality of structures and agency (M.Castells, B.Latour, J.Urry, K.Knorr Cetina). The third integrative wave is expected to come in the 2020s displacing tendencies of disintegration, discrimination, growing gaps and rising barriers. Now theories are relevant as they create a coherent configuration of four types of structures: institutions, interactions, networks, and flows. The new subject matter for theorizing is constituted by their interconnections in forms of fields of structurations, scapes of assemblages, communications, platforms, projects, and events. A metaphor of augmented reality is integrating different concepts of social reality and it is overcoming constitutive distinctions in the last century sociology: between system and lifeworld, locality and globality, the private and public, the material and symbolic, the real and virtual, the physical and digital, etc.

К вопросу о возможностях социологической диагностики кризисных явлений в экономических системах

The article is devoted to the study of diagnostic issues of crisis conditions, primarily in the economy. The approaches of various authors to the definition of the economic crisis are analyzed, and an approach is highlighted in which the main source of information for diagnosing a crisis situation is not economic indicators, but the results of sociological research of the business community. The results of sociological research of the business community in 2022–2024 are analyzed, and it is concluded that despite the negative impact of sanctions, most entrepreneurs do not characterize the situation in the Russian economy as a crisis. In order to increase the effectiveness of analytical support for decision-making on the development of entrepreneurship at the state level, to prevent the development of a crisis situation in the country's economy, a number of measures for the structural and institutional development of the support system for the development of small and medium-sized enterprises are proposed.