Creditworthy Firms Research Articles

Large lending and banks performance. Is there any relationship? Empirical evidence from US banks

AbstractLarge lending in the banking industry has sparked concerns about banks’ efficiency performance, particularly, if it is related to their credit risk, as trade credit, provided by large, creditworthy firms. We provide evidence of a rather neglected issue regarding the impact of large lending on banks’ efficiency using cost and profit stochastic functions. A unique dataset was constructed concerning all US banks collected from the Statistics on Depository Institutions report compiled by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Our sample contains US banks tracked yearly for the period 2010–2017, creating an unbalanced panel of year observations. An econometric framework based on nested non‐neutral frontiers was developed to estimate the influence and the decomposition of large lending on the three banks’ performance aspects. Moreover, different types of frontiers aiming at the cost and profit sides have been investigated, and the associated elasticities have been calculated. We notice that large lending plays a crucial role in banks’ technical efficiency. Variations among different frontier models, type of bank and size, banks’ ownership structure, and macroeconomic conditions appear to be present. By considering all capital adequacy asset quality management earnings liquidity parameters, we notice that banks’ financial strength affects banks’ efficiency.

Loan Guarantees, Bank Lending and Credit Risk Reallocation

We investigate whether government credit guarantee schemes, extensively used after the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, led to substitution of non-guaranteed with guaranteed credit rather than fully adding to the supply of lending. We study this issue using a unique euro-area credit register data, matched with supervisory bank data and establish two main findings. First, guaranteed loans were mostly extended to small but comparatively creditworthy firms in sectors severely affected by the pandemic, borrowing from large, liquid and well-capitalized banks. Second, guaranteed loans partially substitute pre-existing non-guaranteed debt. For firms borrowing from multiple banks, the substitution arises from the lending behavior of the bank extending guaranteed loans, whose drop in non-guaranteed lending is about 9 times larger than for other banks that lend to the same firm. Substitution was highest for funding granted to riskier and smaller firms in sectors more affected by the pandemic, and borrowing from larger and stronger banks. Overall, the evidence indicates that government guarantees contributed to the continued extension of credit to relatively creditworthy firms hit by the pandemic, but also benefited banks’ balance sheets to some extent.

Financial fragmentation and SMEs’ access to finance

This paper focuses on the impact of financial fragmentation on small and medium enterprises’ (SMEs) access to finance. We combine country-level data on financial fragmentation and the ECB’s SAFE (Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises) data for 12 European Union (EU) countries over 2009–2016. Our findings indicate that an increase in financial fragmentation not only raises the probability of all firms to be rationed but also to be charged higher loan rates; in addition, it increases the likelihood of borrower discouragement and it impairs firms’ perceptions of the future availability of bank funds. Less creditworthy firms are even more likely to become credit rationed, suggesting a flight to quality effect in lending. However, our study also documents a potential adverse effect of increasing bank market power resulting from greater integration. This suggests that financial integration could impair firms’ financing, if not accompanied by policy initiatives aimed at maintaining an optimal level of competition in the banking sector.

Large Lending and U.S Banks’ Performance. Is There Any Link?

Large lending in the banking industry has sparked concerns about banks’ efficiency performance, particularly as it related to their credit risk as trade credit, provided by large, creditworthy firms. We provide evidence at a rather neglected issue regarding the impact of large lending on banks’ efficiency using production, cost and profit stochastic functions. A unique dataset was constructed concerning all USA banks collected from the Statistics on Depository Institutions report compiled by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Our sample contains 7960 banks and tracked yearly for the period 2010 -2017, creating an unbalanced panel of year observations. An econometric framework based on nested non-neutral frontiers, was developed to estimate the influence and the decomposition of large lending on the three banks' performance aspects. Moreover, different types of frontiers aiming at the cost, profit, and production side have been investigated and the associated elasticities have been calculated. The empirical findings reveal that the large lending plays a crucial role on banks' technical efficiency. Variations among different frontier models, type of bank and size, banks’ ownership structure and macroeconomic conditions appear to be present. By considering all Capital Adequacy Asset Quality Management Earnings Liquidity parameters, we notice that banks’ financial strength affects banks’ efficiency. Some policy implications are derived based on the empirical evidence supporting a safer and sounder banking system can be emerged as banks finance large firms, increasing the willingness of people to save and bank’s attitude to finance profitable investments projects that rise firm’s value and promote economic growth.

The effect of relationship banking on firm efficiency and default risk

Does relationship bank oversight reduce firm default risk and improve firm operational efficiency? I find that a new loan from a relationship bank reduces the default probability and increases the efficiency of a borrowing firm, benefiting both banks and borrowers. Moreover, inefficient and less creditworthy firms experience the highest reductions in their default risks and improvements in their efficiencies in the years following new relationship bank loans. Further, these benefits are disrupted when the relationship bank is acquired.

Whatever It Takes: The Real Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy

Abstract Launched in Summer 2012, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) program indirectly recapitalized European banks through its positive impact on periphery sovereign bonds. However, the stability reestablished in the banking sector did not fully translate into economic growth. We document zombie lending by banks that remained weakly capitalized even post-OMT. In turn, firms receiving loans used these funds not to undertake real economic activity, such as employment and investment, but to build cash reserves. Creditworthy firms in industries with a high zombie firm prevalence significantly suffered from this credit misallocation, which further slowed the economic recovery. Received March 21, 2018; editorial decision November 13, 2018 by Editor Philip Strahan. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

The Impact of Government Borrowing on Corporate Acquisitions: International Evidence

This paper examines how variation in the supply of government debt affects corporate acquisition activity. Using data from 50 countries from 1991 to 2017, the paper finds that government debt issuance is strongly negatively associated with acquisition activity at the firm and aggregate levels. In response to increases in government borrowing, firms appear to make better quality deals. Importantly, these effects are stronger for cash-financed deals and for more creditworthy firms whose debt is closer substitute for government bonds. Collectively, these findings suggest that rising government debt leads to “real crowding out” by affecting firm ability to make large investments.

Credit risk assessment using purchase order information

This paper proposes advanced credit risk assessment and lending operations using purchase order information from borrower firms. Purchase order information from a borrower firm is useful for financial institutions to evaluate the actual business conditions of the firm. This paper shows the application of purchase order information to lending operations and credit risk assessment, and reveals its effectiveness. First, we propose a “purchase order based” credit risk model for real-time credit risk monitoring of firms. Financial institutions can monitor the actual business conditions of borrower firms by evaluating the firm’s asset value using purchase order information. A combination of traditional firm monitoring using financial statements and high-frequency monitoring using purchase order information enables financial institutions to assess the business conditions of borrower firms more precisely and efficiently. Then, with high-frequency data, financial institutions can give borrower firms appropriate support if necessary on a timely basis. Second, we illustrate purchase order financing, which is the lending method backed by purchase order information from borrowers. With purchase order financing, firms that consistently receive purchase orders from credit-worthy firms can borrow money under more favorable lending terms than the usual lending terms based on the financial statements of the borrower firm.

Why do firms default on their foreign currency loans? The case of Hungary

I isolate the effect of the choice of foreign currency on the loan performance of firms borrowing in different currencies in crisis times. I use a novel micro-level dataset from Hungary to decompose the factors contributing to the worse loan performance of foreign currency borrowers compared to local currency debtors. I find that foreign currency denomination can worsen loan performance considerably, while selection also contributes significantly to the default differences. On the one hand, per se less creditworthy firms borrowed in foreign currency and during the crisis the foreign currency shocks further weakened their loan performances. On the other hand, more creditworthy firms that were also well-prepared for the currency risks also borrowed in foreign currency. My results suggest that not the institution of foreign currency lending per se that should be blamed for the bad loan performance of foreign currency borrowers, instead one should consider the characteristics of the borrowers.

Liquidity risk and maturity management over the credit cycle

We show that firm demand-side factors are strong drivers of procyclical refinancing behavior over the credit cycle using novel data from the Shared National Credit program. Firms are more likely to refinance early when credit conditions are good to keep the effective maturity of their loans long and hedge against having to refinance in tight credit conditions. High credit quality firms are better able to hedge, making their refinancing propensity more sensitive to credit cycles than less creditworthy firms. There is a strong relationship between refinancing a loan, and subsequent growth in capital expenditure, especially when a loan is refinanced early.

What Does Matched Bank-Firm Data Tell Us about the Moral Hazard in Lending Decisions of State-Owned Banks in India?

In this study, we examine quality of the lending decisions of public sector banks (PSBs) in India with a novel dataset which allows the identification of both the banks by the ownership types and their borrowers. We use a lender type prediction model where the bank type is determined by observable risk proxies such as ex-ante credit ratings, which influence the lending decision. The analysis of the lending decisions indicate that the PSBs are more likely to lend to observably less creditworthy firms relative to the private banks (PBs). We also find that smaller firms have a higher likelihood of obtaining credit exclusively from PSBs, possibly, consistent with the directed lending programs of the government. If we exclude systemically important banks and their borrowers from the sample, the likelihood of riskier firms obtaining credit exclusively from PSBs increases. Finally, firms which are likely to be impacted by political regime changes have a higher likelihood of an exclusive borrowing relationship with PSBs. The study contributes to the contemporary debates on the role of market discipline, disclosures, and moral hazard in banking.

Sovereign stress and SMEs’ access to finance: Evidence from the ECB's SAFE survey

Abstract We study the effect of sovereign stress on SMEs’ capital structure using restricted-access data from the European Central Bank. We find that during the sovereign debt crisis, and controlling for borrowers’ quality, firms in stressed countries became more likely to be denied credit, to be credit rationed, and to face higher loan rates. Less creditworthy firms were not more likely to become credit constrained, suggesting no flight to quality in lending. We also find that in order to make up for the decline in bank credit firms in stressed countries began relying considerably more on retained earnings and government subsidies.

Whatever It Takes: The Real Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy

Launched in Summer 2012, the European Central Bank (ECB)'s Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) program indirectly recapitalized European banks through its positive impact on periphery sovereign bonds. However, the stability reestablished in the banking sector did not fully translate into economic growth. We document zombie lending by banks that remained undercapitalized even post-OMT. In turn, firms receiving loans used these funds not to undertake real economic activity such as employment and investment but to build up cash reserves. Creditworthy firms in industries with a high zombie firm prevalence suffered significantly from this credit misallocation, which further slowed down the economic recovery.

The Effect of Relationship Banking on Firm Efficiency

Do monitoring relationship banks produce private information about firms exceeding the minimum returns intended to forestall insolvency? I analyze the effect of relationship banking on firms’ technical efficiency, measured by both Data Envelopment Analysis and Stochastic Frontier Analysis. I find evidence that the existence of a banking relationship improves the efficiency of firms that have high default probabilities, whereas the efficiency of more creditworthy firms remains unaffected. Furthermore, in the years following the initiation of a relationship bank loan, only firms close to the default threshold demonstrate reductions in the probability of default. In contrast, in the wake of public debt issuance, firms of all levels of creditworthiness experience increases in default risk.

Whatever it Takes: The Real Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy

Launched in Summer 2012, the European Central Bank (ECB)'s Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) program indirectly recapitalized European banks through its positive impact on periphery sovereign bonds. However, the stability reestablished in the banking sector did not fully translate into economic growth. We document zombie lending by banks that remained undercapitalized even post-OMT. In turn, firms receiving loans used these funds not to undertake real economic activity such as employment and investment but to build up cash reserves. Creditworthy firms in industries with a high zombie firm prevalence suffered significantly from this credit misallocation, which further slowed down the economic recovery.

Advanced Lending Operations and Credit Risk Assessment Using Purchase Order Information

This paper proposes advanced lending operations and credit risk assessment using purchase order information from borrower firms. Purchase order information from a borrower firm is useful for financial institutions to evaluate the actual business conditions of the firm. This paper shows the application of purchase order information to lending operations and credit risk assessment, and reveals its effectiveness. First, we illustrate purchase order financing, which is the lending method backed by purchase order information from borrowers. With purchase order financing, firms that consistently receive purchase orders from credit-worthy firms can borrow money under more favorable lending terms than the usual lending terms based on the financial statements of the borrower firm. Second, we propose real-time credit risk monitoring of firms. Financial institutions can monitor the actual business conditions of borrower firms by evaluating the firm's asset value using purchase order information. A combination of traditional firm monitoring using financial statements and high-frequency monitoring using purchase order information enables financial institutions to assess the business conditions of borrower firms more precisely and efficiently. Then, with high-frequency data, financial institutions can give borrower firms appropriate support if necessary on a timely basis.

Has the Community Reinvestment Act increased loan availability among small businesses operating in minority neighbourhoods?

The 1977 Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) established a bold agenda requiring financial institutions in the USA to serve the credit needs of low- and moderate-income areas, including traditionally excluded minority residential areas. Initially opposed by both bankers and the federal regulatory authorities responsible for enforcement, the CRA has been contentious for decades. This study explores CRA impacts by investigating whether small businesses located in minority neighbourhoods have the same degree of bank-loan access as equally creditworthy firms located in other environs. We analysed both the unmet credit needs of small firms and the outcomes of their loan applications. We found that equality in loan access has been attained in some respects, indicating the CRA has had positive effects on loan availability. Inequality nonetheless persists. Regarding unmet credit needs, firms are penalised if their owners are African American, Latino or Asian American. Since roughly half of owners in minority communities are minorities, our challenge was to disentangle the effects on loan access of small-business geographic location versus owner race. Causal factors underlying our findings were investigated. Did bank regulators take the initiative in lessening traditional discriminatory lending practices? Alternatively, were activist community groups responsible? While the agenda advocated by activist groups coincides closely with actual gains, the overlapping but differing stated objectives of regulators did not.

The Impact of Credit Rating Changes on Capital Structure Decisions: Evidence from Non-Listed Firms in Germany

Changes in corporate credit ratings affect subsequent capital structure decisions. The results for listed companies in our U.S. sample support Kisgen’s (2006, 2009) credit rating-capital structure hypothesis. However, applying a system GMM system approach, the implications of this hypothesis are weakened by our estimates for the speed of capital structure adjustment after credit rating changes. In contrast, publicly listed companies in our German sample are widely independent from changes in their creditworthiness. Similarly, changes in the capital structure and financing choices of high creditworthy privately-held firms in Germany are more or less independent from credit rating changes. At speculative grade rating levels, however, these firms implement financing activities that strengthen their capital structure subsequent to a rating downgrade. Our findings for the speed of adjustment support these results. We find some contradictory patterns for credit rating upgrades at lower rating levels. We conclude that the close relationship of German firms, whether publicly listed or not, to their banks helps them to mitigate else substantial effects of adverse changes in their creditworthiness.

Short-Term Debt Maturity and Accruals-Based Earnings Management in Tehran Stock Exchange (Iranian Evidence)

Firms face the possibility of a debt run when bad news about the firm is coupled with large amount of debt maturing within a short period of time (short-term debt). To avoid such debt run threats, or to further the possibility of debt contract renewal, firms have strong incentives to project an image of strong financial health. 110 companies from the companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange during the 5 year period between 2008 to 2012 were reviewed. Opportunistic behavior is proxied by accruals-based earnings management which is measured in terms of absolute value of discretionary accruals. Using a sample of 550 firm-years, we find that the coefficient for short-term debt is negatively associated with discretionary accruals for low creditworthy firms. The result show that firm's financial strength have a decreasing role on the effect of debt maturity on earnings management. This result is not consistent with our expectation that firms with higher creditworthiness (investment grade firms) are associated with more monitoring benefits of short-term debt. In addition to ordinary least squares regressions that include controls for industry, and year fixed-effects, we also report results using panel data fixed effects to control for firm and year fixed effects. By establishing the relation between earnings management and debt maturity structure, we suggest another important factor that must be taken into account when studying earnings management.

Small Business Borrowing and the Bifurcated Economy: Why Quantitative Easing Has Been Ineffective for Small Business

In the early years following the financial collapse, federal officials and others believed that banks were not making loans to creditworthy small firms, who have accounted for most of the job creation in the United States in recent decades. Acting on this belief, a number of programs were created to increase bank lending to small firms. Overall, however, the data collected since the 2007/8 financial crisis suggest that the explanation for slow loan growth in the small business sector is not a result of supply constraints but rather a result of anemic loan demand among small firms. Thus, recent programs intended to increase small business borrowing through easing credit supply were doomed to fail. The weak demand for credit among small firms is representative of the sluggish performance of the small business economy postrecession, a marked contrast to the robust performance of larger firms and a reflection of a bifurcated economy.