Bank Credit Risk Research Articles

Effects of Table Banking on Socio-Economic Empowerment of Households in Turkana County, Kenya.

Table banking is a concept that has gained popularity in the recent past in Kenya. The aim of this type of informal banking is to enhance the socio-economic status of citizens, particularly those from poor areas of the country. However, measuring and tracking changes in the levels of socio-economic empowerment of households through table banking is not well documented, although it is becoming popular, especially among women groups in Kenya. The main objective of this study was to investigate the effects of table banking on the socio-economic empowerment of households in Turkana County, Kenya. The specific objectives were: to establish the effect of table banking financial accessibility, table banking awareness, table banking group participation, table banking group credit risks management strategies on socio-economic empowerment in Turkana County. The study is guided by the theory of change by Loiseau and Walsh 2015, vulnerable group theory of financial inclusion and public good theory of financial inclusion. The study adopted descriptive survey design where questionnaires were used to get primary data. Secondary data was used to validate the primary data collection. The study involved a sample of 398 members drawn using simple random sampling method from a population of 60,500 Table banking members from Kalobeyei ward, Kakuma ward in Turkana West Subcounty in Turkana County. A total of 398 questionnaires were administered with a return rate of 97.0%. The data collected was analysed using descriptive statistics. The study relied on Pearson’s correlation, linear regression and factor analysis to draw inferences from the responses. Statistical analysis was done with the aid of statistical package of social sciences (SPSS) software version 24. The findings of the study revealed a strong, positive and statistically significant relationship between access to finance and socio-economic empowerment of households. The findings of the study also showed a fairly, strong, positive and statistically significant relationship between table banking awareness on socio-economic of households. Besides, the findings revealed a very strong, positive and statistically significant relationship between Table banking and active group participation on socio-economic empowerment of women. The results of the study also revealed a very strong, positive and statistically significant relationship between table banking credit risk management strategies and socio-economic empowerment of women. According to the findings, this study recommends continuous, operative and thorough training of all groups involved in table banking to enhance their capacity in leading the groups and enhancing financial management capability and performance. Additionally, the study recommends creating a functional system for financial access through the use of several financial products at affordable prices, this focuses on government considering increasing the avenues and mechanisms for socioeconomic empowerment of women and special interest groups, especially in the rural areas. As shown in this study, findings provide evidence of active participating of women in the table banking compared to men involvement, based on this it will also be pivotal to further research the basis of men’s involvement in table banking and how affects their contribution to socio -economic empowerment at the household level.

Liquidity and credit risks during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from a dual banking system

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between liquidity risk and credit risk of Islamic and conventional banks in a predominantly Muslim country (Indonesia) adopting a dual banking system. Design/methodology/approach To investigate liquidity-credit risk nexus, this study used a sample of 72 Islamic and conventional banks in Indonesia for a period between 2019 Q4 and 2022 Q1. This paper used a generalized method of moments (GMM) and generalized least square (GLS) estimators. Findings This study found that there is a nonlinear (inverted U-shaped) relationship between liquidity risk and credit risk in dual banking system. Liquidity risk was found to increase credit risk if it is below the optimal threshold, and above this optimal threshold, liquidity risk begins to decrease credit risk, both before and during the pandemic. In addition, the impact of liquidity risk on credit risk is higher in Islamic banks compared to conventional banks. Originality/value This paper reinvestigates the puzzle between credit risk and liquidity risk by taking a sample of a dual banking system country and by considering the period of the COVID-19 pandemic. To the authors’ knowledge, this approach has not been addressed in prior empirical studies.

STRATEGI DIVERSIFIKASI PORTOFOLIO: ANALISIS DAMPAK RISIKO DAN KEUNTUNGAN PADA BANK KONVENSIONAL DAN SYARIAH MILIK NEGARA DI INDONESIA

This research examines the relationship between credit portfolio diversification and the risk and return of state-owned banks (Bank BUMN) from 2019 to 2023. Using multiple linear regression analysis, it evaluates the impact of the Herfindahl Hirschman Index (HHI) on credit or financing risk (NPL and NPF) and bank returns (ROA, ROE) among state-owned banks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Control variables include bank size, loan or financing to deposit ratio (LDR and FDR), and equity to total asset ratio (ETA). The results show that credit portfolio diversification reduces credit risk in BUMN banks, suggesting that spreading credit exposures across sectors can mitigate risk. However, diversification does not significantly affect bank returns (ROA, ROE). Control variables such as bank size, LDR and FDR, and ETA show no significant impact on credit risk, ROA, or ROE. This study provides empirical evidence on the effectiveness of financing portfolio diversification in managing credit risk within state-owned banks, considering Islamic banking principles. While diversification can mitigate credit risk, its impact on profitability requires careful consideration. BUMN banks should implement robust risk assessment frameworks and strategic oversight to maximize diversification benefits while maintaining financial stability and adhering to ethical and Sharia-compliant financial practices.

Capital price distortion, financial leverage, and credit risk in commercial banks

This paper uses panel data from 30 provinces and cities from 2012 to 2022 (excluding Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan), and empirically examines the impact of capital price distortion and financial leverage on the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of banks by constructing a dynamic panel system GMM model. The study finds that capital price distortion and financial leverage have a significantly positive impact on the NPL ratio of commercial banks. Increasing the degree of capital price distortion and financial leverage leads to a higher NPL ratio. Further analysis reveals that capital price distortion has a significantly positive impact on financial leverage, while Overcapacity has a significantly negative impact on financial leverage.

An investigation of the predictors of credit risk among Ghanaian rural banks

This study investigated the predictors of credit risk in rural and community banks (RCBs), and the effects of rural banking in the Ashanti Region of Ghana. The study examined the correlation between credit risk as the dependent factor and a set of 8 systemic and unsystemic factors of credit risk as independent variables. The systemic variables were GDP growth rate, interest rate, inflation rate and unemployment rate. The unsystemic factors analyzed were branch network, total assets, return on assets and capital adequacy ratio. Secondary data was collected from 15 RCBs which were selected through purposive sampling, stratified random sampling and simple random sampling. Data collected was analyzed using Microsoft Excel and STATA software applications. Dataset ranged from the year 2008 to 2017. Descriptive statistical analysis, correlational analysis and regression analysis were undertaken. The study found that, return on assets, branch network and size were the significant unsystemic predictors of credit risk whilst interest rate, inflation and unemployment were the significant systemic predictors of credit risk in RCBs in Ghana. Furthermore, the study revealed that RCBs have had considerable positive impact on the communities where they operated. Managers of RCBs must consider pursuing a strategy of branch expansion and improving efficiency of staff because of the moderating effects of these factors on credit risk. This study contributed to the understanding of the relationship between unsystemic predictors of credit risk and systemic predictors of credit risk in RCBs, as intervening variables.

Asset Allocation and Bank Resilience: China Insights

This research is based on the panel data from the annual reports of Chinese commercial banks for the years 2010-2020. A panel data model is constructed to empirically investigate the influence of commercial banks' asset allocation on financial stability. The study innovatively explores the differences between large-scale banks and general-scale banks in this context, as well as the interaction effects between large-scale banks and their methods of capital application. The findings indicate that: firstly, the higher the proportion of corporate loans in commercial banks, the stronger the stability. With the support of national policies, the operating environment for emerging industries has improved, leading to a reduction in bankruptcy risks and further decreasing the credit risk of related banks, which contributes to the enhancement of banks' financial stability. Additionally, compared to securities investments affected by market fluctuations, corporate loans are less susceptible to significant capital changes, and their risks are primarily determined by the operating conditions of the related enterprises, making them relatively controllable. Secondly, the higher the proportion of personal loans in commercial banks, the stronger the stability. The largest part of personal loans consists of housing mortgage loans, which have a low non-performing loan rate and high quality in China. Therefore, an increase in personal loans helps to enhance the financial stability of banks. Thirdly, large-scale banks exhibit lower financial stability. Due to the redundancy in management personnel in large-scale banks, management costs, adjustment costs, and transaction costs are relatively high. Furthermore, it is worth noting that because large-scale banks hold a significant amount of surplus funds, they are prone to excessive securities investments. Fluctuations in the securities market increase external risks and decrease financial stability.

Shadow banking and climate change, the “hidden leaf” of green credit risk policy

The paper studies the influence of shadow banking on the efficiency of two important green prudential proposals for credit risk of traditional banks : the Green Supporting Factor (GSF) and the Brown Penalizing Factor (BPF). Through an environmental general equilibrium model, the paper shows that, without shadow banks in the model, the use of the BPF or GSF generates a negative relationship between banking stability and environmental benefits. By introducing shadow banks, the use of BPF allows to maintain banking stability and to generate environmental benefits at the same time. These results emphasize the need to take into account shadow banking sector in a consistent assessment of green credit risk regulation proposals.

Empirical Analysis of the Macroeconomic Drivers of Banking Industry Stability in Nigeria

The main purpose of this study is to determine the macroeconomic drivers of banking industry stability in Nigeria. The study employed Quantitative Research method using ex-post research design to analyse the impact of exchange rate, interest rate, inflation rate, economic growth rate, and unemployment rate on bank credit-asset ratio from 1991 to 2023. Based on preliminary estimations from the Phillips-Perron unit root and F-Bounds tests, the study employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique to establish the following key findings. Macroeconomic variables collectively and significantly influence banking industry stability. Specifically, high economic growth rate, moderate inflation rate, and low unemployment rate are the core drivers of banking industry stability, while high interest rate and volatile exchange rate exert a significant negative influence on banking industry stability. Consequently, bankers and macroeconomic policymakers should collaborate to ensure that macroeconomic policy frameworks provide banks with the opportunities for capital mobilisation necessary to effectively perform their financial intermediation roles for the overall benefit of the economy. The study recommends balancing macroeconomic targets and bank stability through growth-inflation-employment targeting policies to improve households' loan repayment resilience and reduce the credit risk of Nigerian banks. Additionally, exchange rate stabilisation through government intervention is suggested to help banks hedge against asset and credit value loss due to exchange rate volatility.

The impact of Basel III regulations on solvency and credit risk-taking behavior of Islamic banks

PurposeThis study aims to examine the simultaneous effect of variations in the Capital Adequacy Ratio and Credit Risk of Islamic banks of the Gulf Cooperation Council under the influence of the Basel III regulations using an innovative approach.Design/methodology/approachThis approach highlights the critical importance of the Basel III reform in preserving the stability of the regional and international financial sector in the Gulf Cooperation Council and globally by examining the complex dynamics between Capital Adequacy Ratio and Credit Risk and their interaction under regulatory constraints. The annual reports and financial performance of 26 Islamic banks were analyzed over the period 2013–2021.FindingsThe findings highlight the critical importance of the Basel III reform in preserving the stability of the regional and international financial sector in the Gulf Cooperation Council and globally by examining the complex dynamics between Capital Adequacy Ratio and Credit Risk and their interaction under regulatory constraints. The annual reports and financial performance of 26 Islamic banks were analyzed over the period 2013–2021.Originality/valueThe insights from findings help define effective strategies to manage and mitigate Credit Risk while strengthening solvency under Basel III prudential supervision. Policymakers, regulatory authorities and banking institutions can optimize the management of Credit Risk and create a robust and stable financial environment for Islamic banks.

The Impact of Strategic Agility in Reducing Credit Risks in Iraqi Commercial Banks

The Impact of Strategic Agility in Reducing Credit Risks in Iraqi Commercial Banks

Determinants of Bank’s Financial Stability in Pakistan

The purpose of this study is to investigate the role of both internal and external factors in achieving better stability in context of Pakistani banking industry. The internal determinants that this research study have used are bank size, funding risk, liquidity risk, credit risk and return on assets while external variables utilized includes money supply and unemployment rate. The study contains 10 years secondary data over the period 2013-2022 of 24 commercial banks of Pakistan. This study conducted correlation analysis and GMM model estimation for analysis. The findings show that liquidity risk, bank profitability, funding risk and bank size have positive and significant impact on bank stability. On the other hand, credit risk effects negatively bank stability. The result showed that money supply positively affects the stability of banks in Pakistan. On the contrary, unemployment is negatively affecting banks stability. The findings of this study have important implications for policymakers, regulators, banks, investors, and other stakeholders in the Pakistani banking sector. By enhancing the understanding of the factors influencing bank stability, the research contributes to identifying the importance of development of evidence-based policies, risk management strategies, and regulatory reforms aimed at development of a stable and resilient banking system in Pakistan.

The effect of industry sector and profit-loss sharing financing on credit risk of Islamic banks in Indonesia considering COVID-19 pandemic

Purpose The COVID-19 pandemic has affected economic activity both globally and nationally, which also has an impact to banking sector and Islamic banking is no exception. This study aims to see how the impact of Islamic bank financing in seven sectors affected by the COVID-19 to the credit risk of Indonesian Islamic banks. In addition, this study also tries to see whether the proportion of mudharabah-musharaka or profit-loss sharing (PLS) financing also affects credit risk in Indonesian Islamic banks. Design/methodology/approach This study uses fixed effect panel data regression over the period 2011–2020. Findings The results of this study show that wholesale and retail trade financing will increase credit risk in Indonesian Islamic banks as a policy implication. In terms of the proportion of PLS financing, it shows that a larger share of PLS financing will reduce credit risk in Islamic banks. Originality/value This paper demonstrates that despite the industry’s perception of PLS as riskier than murabaha-based instruments. According to the research, PLS financing will lower credit risk in Islamic banks. This study found that PLS contributes to overall economic stability by shifting the function of Islamic banks from a simple lending body to an active market catalyst/manager/consultant to market players seeking financial aid.

Employee training and bank stability

AbstractUsing a unique data set of Italian banks covering the 2011 to 2019 period, this study investigates the influence of human resource training on bank stability and examines whether this relationship is affected by bank efficiency and credit risk. In line with the resource‐based view (RBV) of the firm, our findings suggest that employee training exerts a positive impact on bank stability. Credit risk and bank efficiency are also identified as potential drivers in this relationship. Importantly, our results remain robust when addressing endogeneity issues and considering alternative model specifications. This study offers novel insights into the impact of employee‐related variables on bank performance. The practical implications of our findings hold relevance for both banks and regulatory authorities, as human resource training can profoundly influence the effectiveness of risk management strategies and, ultimately, the sound and prudent management of banks.

The impact of digital transformation on credit risk of commercial banks in Vietnam

In Vietnam, digital transformation has been considered as the leading strategy of commercial banks, especially in terms of credit risks. Therefore, they must identify how their digital transformation affects their credit risks to maintain effective operation and steady growth in a complex and changing market environment. Our study takes 29 commercial banks in Vietnam from 2014 to 2022 as the research object to test the impact of bank digital transformation on credit risk. In particular, the level of digital transformation of banks is measured by the ICT Index. The ICT Index is the official measure that evaluates the level of information technology application nationwide each year, with separate indicators for ministries and branches. Banks in Vietnam also use the ICT Index to assess their readiness and ability to apply information technology in the digital transformation process. Various regression models including Pooled Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Fixed Effects Model (FEM), Random Effects Model (REM), Generalized Least Squares (GLS) are applied using STATA 17. Research results show that credit risk is affected by 5 factors: the information technology development and application readiness index (ICT Index), inflation rate (INF), return on equity (ROE), loans to customers (LOAN), and operational diversification (NIIC). On that basis, the study proposes recommendations for commercial banks to promote their digital transformation process. In addition, the state and policymakers also have appropriate measures to promote digital transformation in the Vietnamese banking system.

Corporate governance, social responsibility and sustainability commitments by banks: Impacts on credit risk and performance

AbstractWith the increasing pressures to commit to social and environmental issues, banks align with stakeholders' expectations via corporate social responsibility (CSR), and sustainable development goals (SDGs) initiatives. Understanding how these initiatives affect credit risk and performance of banks is crucial for the economy. Relying on the dynamic generalized method of moments and data on Thai listed commercial banks from 2015 to 2020, we find commitments to good governance, CSR and SDGs largely have an opposite effect on bank credit risk and performance. Consistent with stewardship or resource dependency hypothesis, together with stakeholder and good management hypothesis, banks with more female directors, higher levels of anti‐corruption and SDGs commitments are associated with a reduction in credit risk. However, consistent with queen bee hypothesis and agency and trade‐off hypothesis, banks with larger board size, more female directors and higher levels of CSR and SDGs commitments underperform. This apparent contradiction between negative impacts on bank performance and positive impacts on credit risk can be reconciled by understanding the trade‐offs involved, the long‐term focus of sustainability initiatives, leading to a decline in short‐term performance but enhancing their resilience to adverse events, ultimately reducing credit risk. Our findings enable stakeholders to make informed decisions, improve sustainable business practices, and contribute to the long‐term success of banks and the broader society.

The Influence of Financing Diversification and Financial Performance on the Risk of Islamic Commercial Banks in Indonesia

This study aims to examine the influence of financing diversification, which includes six financing contracts of Islamic banks in Indonesia and financial performance on credit risk represented by NPF in Islamic commercial banks using regression panel data in 2018-2022. The results of this study indicate that there is an insignificant positive influence on financing diversification and financial performance partially on credit risk in Islamic banking in Indonesia. However, financing diversification and financial performance together have a significant influence on credit risk, which is currently a concern of the Islamic bank financial services authority in Indonesia. The financial performance measurement indicators in this study only focus on ROA, and this indicator may have limitations in measuring the financial performance of Islamic banking.

The effect of off-balance sheet activities on credit risk of African banks

Purpose The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of off-balance sheet activities on the credit risk of African banks. Design/methodology/approach The theory about the relationship between off-balance sheet activities and bank risk was used to construct a conceptual model of the effect of off-balance sheet on credit risk in an African context. The accounting approach is chosen by collecting accounting data extracted from the annual reports of 24 private and conventional African banks during the period 2010–2019. Both statistical and empirical studies are conducted. The statistical study aims to give a description of sample banks in terms of off-balance sheet activities and key financial indicators. The empirical study has the goal of exploring the correlations between, on the one hand, credit risk and, on the other hand, off-balance sheet ratio and control variables (bank- and country-specific variables). This study is based on dynamic panels using the two-step generalized method of moments technique to estimate regressions between credit risk and the explanatory variables. Findings The statistical study reveals that sample banks use moderately off-balance sheet activities; most of them use essentially guarantees and letters of credit, have satisfactory financial indicators and are slightly exposed to credit risk. The empirical results from the two-step generalized method of moments technique disclose that off-balance sheet activities have an intensifying effect on the credit risk of African banks. However, the increasing effect can be minimized when African banks use moderately off-balance sheet activities. Practical implications Using judiciously off-balance sheet activities does not exacerbate the exposure of African banks to credit risk. Therefore, managers of African banks are recommended to maintain a moderate level of off-balance sheet activities, especially guarantees and letters of credit. Originality/value The findings of this study eliminate the opacity about the effect of off-balance sheet activities on credit risk. Moreover, this study fulfills the huge gap in the related literature by completing the scarcity of recent studies, considering all items of the off-balance sheet, focusing on the African context, describing off-balance sheet activities and financial indicators of sample banks due to a statistical study and estimating regressions of dynamic panels between credit risk and both bank-specific and country-specific variables due to a two-step generalized method of moments technique.

The Impact of Geographic Factors on Credit Risk: A Study of Chinese Commercial Banks

Abstract Controlling credit risk is crucial for maintaining financial stability, and the role of geographic factors in this regard is a significant concern for scholars and policymakers. Drawing on the concept of information asymmetry, we developed a theoretical model to analyze how geographic factors influence credit risk. Our theoretical proposition suggests that the spatial organization of banks affects the efficiency of collecting and processing soft information, ultimately impacting the credit risk. To test this proposition, we collected microdata from Chinese commercial banks spanning the period from 2011 to 2022. Employing a mediating effect model, we empirically examined the relationship between spatial organizational structure and credit risk. Our results indicate that the distance between bank operations and functional distance impedes the collection and processing of soft information, thereby exacerbating credit risk in banks. The study focuses on examining how the spatial organizational structure of Chinese commercial banks affects credit risk. By analyzing geographic factors and information asymmetry, the study aims to understand how the organization of banks influences the collection and processing of soft information, which in turn impacts the credit risk. Furthermore, our analysis of the sample reveals that the mediating role of soft information varies between state-owned banks and joint-stock banks due to their distinct customer profiles. On the basis of these findings, we propose several policy recommendations, including a focus on enhancing the collection and processing of soft information, promoting the growth of locally based small and medium-sized banks, and reducing information barriers within bank hierarchies.

On the measurement of corporate governance and its impact on bank profitability and credit risk: The case of Tunisian listed banks

AbstractThis paper explores the influence of corporate governance on the profitability and credit risk of a sample of listed banks in Tunisia. The methodology involves two main steps. Firstly, principal component analysis is employed to construct a novel governance index, assessing the quality of both internal and external bank governance. This index takes into account the degree of compliance and application of directives and laws mandated by the Tunisian Central Bank regarding banking governance. In the second step, panel data analysis is conducted to scrutinize the impact of internal and external governance mechanisms on the profitability and risk of Tunisian banks. The results reveal that as the governance index increases, the profitability of banks improves in terms of return on assets and stock market performance. Additionally, a higher governance index is correlated with a reduction in credit risks, as indicated by lower instances of non‐performing loans and an increased rate of coverage for classified debts. To enhance the robustness of our results, we calculate a standard governance score based on existing empirical literature. Furthermore, to account for potential endogeneity, we employ the two‐step system generalized method of moments.

Bank ownership and credit risk: an empirical study of Indonesian Islamic local banks

Purpose This study aims to determine the effect of bank ownership on the credit risk of Indonesian Islamic local banks (ILBs). Design/methodology/approach This study uses the system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation technique with a sample of 155 Islamic local banks in Indonesia from 2012 to 2019. Findings The results show that commissioner board (D.COW) ownership has a negative effect on credit risk. This indicates that an increase in the number of shares of Islamic local banks owned by the commissioner board reduces credit risk. On the other hand, government ownership (D.GOW), the Sharia supervisory board (D.SOW) and the director board (D.DOW) do not affect credit risk. Practical implications The government, Sharia supervisory board and director board need opportunities to easily own more Islamic local bank shares. Therefore, the provisions regarding the share ownership rights of the government, Sharia supervisory board and director board need to be improved to increase their role in reducing credit risk. Originality/value Previous researchers have not studied the effect of government ownership, the commissioner board, the Sharia supervisory board and the ownership of directors on credit risk at the ILB in Indonesia.