Credit Misallocation Research Articles

Corporate ESG performance and credit misallocation: Evidence from China

Using data from Chinese-listed companies from 2010 to 2020, this paper investigates the impact of corporate environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance on credit misallocation. We find that ESG performance significantly reduces credit misallocation, which remains robust to various sensitivity tests. Mechanism analysis reveals that ESG reduces credit misallocation by alleviating information asymmetry. This “information supplementary effect” is primarily evident at the firm rather than the macro level. Further discussion reveals a more pronounced impact of ESG in firms with lower profitability and higher market competition, as well as those located in less financially developed regions. However, this impact becomes less salient during periods of credit expansion. Our research highlights the importance of corporate ESG performance in deterring information asymmetry, and provides insights into improving the resource allocation efficiency in the credit market.

The Micro-Effect of Monetary Policy on the Misallocation of Credit

The structural effects of monetary policy and these effects impact on credit allocation are crucial facets of monetary policy research. This study initially estimates China’s monetary policy based on the GDP growth target and CPI target found in the Chinese Government’s Annual Work Report. Subsequently, it quantifies the extent of credit misallocation among Chinese firms using data from listed companies from the years 2013 to 2022. Finally, we empirically investigate the repercussions of expansionary monetary policy shocks on credit misallocation, focusing on micro-firms. Empirical findings reveal that expansionary monetary policy significantly exacerbates credit misallocation, particularly in underfinanced firms. Mechanistic analysis suggests that a preference for loan size in lending behavior constitutes a major factor contributing to credit misallocation among firms.

Nonperforming Loan Disposals Without Resolution

Using proprietary data on nonperforming loan (NPL) transactions in China, we document that banks conceal NPLs in disposal transactions that are supposed to resolve NPLs. In these transactions, banks provide financing and retain the credit risks and debt collection obligations. Transaction prices contradict underlying credit risks: Despite being delinquent for 4.5 years, the median NPL package is sold at face value with zero haircut. The majority of NPL packages are resold at a premium to banks’ non–government-owned borrowers, further supporting the concealment view. Banks under stricter regulation conceal NPLs more and engage in more illicit concealment. NPL-concealing banks increase zombie lending, suggesting that an ineffective resolution exacerbates credit misallocation. Recognizing the hidden NPLs implies the total NPLs in China is two to three times the reported amount. This paper was accepted by Victoria Ivashina, finance. Funding: B. Charoenwong acknowledges financial support from the Singapore Ministry of Education [AcRF Tier 1 Research Grant A-8000760-00-00]. T. Ruan acknowledges financial support from the National University of Singapore (NUS) [Start-Up Grant A-0003870-00-00]. B. Charoenwong and T. Ruan acknowledge financial support from the NUS Business School Financial Database [Grant N-311-000-251-001]. Supplemental Material: The online appendix and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.02163 .

Zombie-lending during the pandemic in India: Did the Central Bank reduce credit misallocation concerns of forbearance?

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) undertook a policy mix approach to maintain financial stability in the Indian banking system. RBI recapitalized the banks and infused liquidity through accommodative monetary policies combined with temporary forbearance policies of restructuring loans to boost credit growth and support economic expansion. With a focus on zombie lending, we examine the effectiveness of this policy mix in bank lending channels during the pandemic. We find banks have extended credit growth to the non-financial listed firms. Broadly, we obtain little evidence of credit misallocation to these firms through zombie lending. Subsequently, we observe a decline in zombie lending to manufacturing and small and medium enterprises. However, our result shows a significant increase in zombie lending towards high rent-seeking industries. We witness that zombie lending does not crowd out healthy lending through the bank and industry congestion channels. The results of our study have significant implications for policymakers. Specifically, our findings suggest that accommodative monetary policy reduces credit misallocation concerns of forbearance. In the absence of monetary policy support, forbearance alone may exacerbate adverse effects.

Does Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code address the Credit Misallocation concern? Indian Experience

Does Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code address the Credit Misallocation concern? Indian Experience

The effect of bank recapitalization policy on credit allocation, investment, and productivity: Evidence from a banking crisis in Japan

This paper examines the ramifications of government capital injections into financially distressed banks during the 1997 Japanese banking crisis. Using a dataset merging firm-level financial statements and bank balance sheets, we explore whether the capital injections primarily benefited high-productivity firms or were misallocated to struggling “zombie” firms. The results suggest that post-injection banks increased lending to high-productivity non-zombie and low-productivity zombie firms. The former aligns with conventional theories prioritizing high-productivity firms for investment and productivity enhancement; the latter suggests credit misallocation toward struggling firms mainly for debt servicing. There is no evidence that these injections promoted investments among firms. The results indicate that zombie firms reduced investments, particularly in infrastructure. High-productivity non-zombie firms did not exhibit a significant investment boost despite receiving more loans but displayed positive labor and total factor productivity growth, potentially driven by sales growth and increased advertisement expenses rather than employment and wage adjustments.

Misallocation of debt and aggregate productivity

We propose an accounting framework that maps the dispersion of borrowing costs along the debt maturity structure to the misallocation of productive resources. Specifically, we decompose the effects of credit misallocation into two distinct channels: limited access to debt finance (the scale effect) and distortion in the composition of debt across maturities (the composition effect). Our estimates suggest that an efficient allocation of debt could increase TFP by approximately 14.4% in the US manufacturing sector, of which roughly 10% is attributable to the composition of debt. Reducing inefficiencies in the composition of debt would result in TFP losses due to access and composition of factor inputs being reduced by 9.7% and 0.4%, respectively.

The Costs of Agglomeration: Misallocation of Credit in Chinese Cities

In comparison to agglomeration economies, the negative externalities of agglomeration have received less attention. Based on the punishment data of illegal loans from Chinese bank branches, this paper focuses on the relationship between density and credit misallocation to enrich the study of the negative externalities of agglomeration. After controlling for city size and a variety of other possible factors, the empirical results suggest that increased density leads to increased credit misallocation, and this result passes a series of robustness tests, including IV estimation. Agglomeration causes credit misallocation primarily through rising house prices, which causes financial institutions to favor housing-related loans. During this process, the government’s reliance on land finance causes higher house prices and, as a result, more severe misallocation. However, agglomeration does not always lead to an increase in credit misallocation. There are also cases where agglomeration does not lead to an increase in credit misallocation, which suggests that we should pay attention to differences in key characteristics between cities when studying the externalities of agglomeration.

Heterogeneous corporate borrowing behaviours during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from Korea

ABSTRACT This study investigates the loan financing behaviours of Korean firms during the COVID-19 pandemic. I find that financially unhealthy firms and firms with insufficient collateral capacity borrowed less during the pandemic, suggesting that lenders consider credit risk in their lending decisions. Meanwhile, the results provide evidence of credit misallocation. Particularly, zombie firms were able to increase their borrowings and firms increased their borrowings irrespective of their profitability and uncertainty. These results suggest that, without careful monitoring, lenders will suffer loan loss problems to the extent that they misallocated bank credit.

How Trade Dampens the Impact of Financial Frictions in the Presence of Large Firms

In this paper we aim, first, to examine how an economy’s financial development affects the welfare gains from trade and, second, to uncover how large firms threaten to suppress these gains, through the exertion of market power and their confirmed preferential access to liquidity. To this purpose, we propose a theoretical model of international trade with financial constraints, which are different between large oligopolists and small monopolistic competitors. We show that trade diminishes the impact of credit misallocation and financial frictions and creates welfare gains by intensifying selection and boosting competition. We find that welfare gains are higher under harsher domestic distortions, meaning that trade particularly benefits developing economies, acting as a substitute for financial development. Nevertheless, in the shadow of large firms, gains from trade are diminished, even more so when such firms are rare and, therefore, more powerful. We conclude that international trade is a prerequisite for financial and economic development but the benefits from globalization are not fully reaped unless large-firm entry and competition are facilitated. We trust that our findings are extremely relevant for developing economies, which are often export-oriented, but, at the same time, suffer from severe credit market inefficiencies and a shortage of large incumbents.

Zombie Lending: Theoretical, International, and Historical Perspectives

This article surveys the theory on zombie lending incentives and the consequences of zombie lending for the real economy. It also offers a historical perspective by reviewing the growing empirical evidence on zombie lending along three dimensions: ( a) the role of undercapitalized banks, ( b) effects on zombie firms, and ( c) spillovers and distortions for non-zombie firms. We then provide an overview of how zombie lending can be attenuated. Finally, we use a sample of US publicly listed firms to compare various measures proposed in the literature to classify firms as “zombies.” We identify definitions of zombie firms that are adequate to investigate economic inefficiency in the form of real sector competitive distortions of zombie lending. We find that only definitions based on interest rate subsidies are able to detect these spillovers and thereby provide evidence in support of credit misallocation.

The Spatial Economic Effect of Industrial Credit Misallocation in China

The cross-industry allocation of bank credit plays an important role in China’s economic development and optimizing and upgrading industrial structures. This article collects the panel data of 19 industries in China from 2007 to 2017, constructs dynamic spatial panel models, and deeply analyzes the impact of credit misallocation on industry economy. The results show that structural misallocation of bank credit exists in various industries in China. Particularly, credit deviation degree of China’s industries has gradually declined, but structural volatility remains large. A large amount of capital flows to the tertiary industry, while the capital of the primary industry and the secondary industry is relatively scarce. What is more, credit misallocation has a negative impact on industry economic growth and shows a weak acceleration effect. Therefore, in formulating economic policies, the government should actively guide the rational flow of inter industry credit funds and improve the efficiency of capital allocation. The government should continue to increase investment in manufacturing and promote independent innovation. Additionally, reasonable financial policies should be formulated to ensure the effective operation of the market and reduce the degree of credit misallocation.

A prolonged period of low interest rates in Europe: Unintended consequences

AbstractWe examine the potential adverse effects of a prolonged period of low interest rates on financial stability from multiple perspectives. First, we provide a unique comparison of natural rates of interest estimated using two approaches—with and without financial factors—for six large European countries inside and outside the euro area. Second, we provide a comprehensive review of the empirical literature, allowing us to identify and categorize financial vulnerabilities, which may be created and fueled by low interest rates. Third, we discuss a situation in which a prolonged period of low interest rates may lead to a point of no return by contributing to higher indebtedness, overvalued asset prices and underpriced risks, resource and credit misallocation, and lower productivity. With respect to all of that, we offer a few monetary policy considerations. Specifically, we suggest that (i) monetary policy should act symmetrically over the medium to long term, (ii) both the short‐term and long‐term costs and benefits of pursuing accommodative or restrictive monetary policy should be accounted for, and (iii) monetary and macroprudential policies need to be coordinated, and their interactions should be accounted for in order to find the best policy mix for the economy.

Credit Misallocation and Macro Dynamics with Oligopolistic Financial Intermediaries

Credit Misallocation and Macro Dynamics with Oligopolistic Financial Intermediaries

“Subsidies” or “taxes”? Corporate credit misallocation induced by the nexus of state-owned enterprises and state-owned banks

Diverging from common claims made in the literature, this paper shows that “two-way” credit misallocation is linked to state ownership status. Specifically, not all Chinese state-owned firms benefit from their ownership status by obtaining lower interest costs as a type of subsidy. Some firms are subjected to higher interest costs as a form of tax. We report further evidence for the relationship between financial development and economic growth by accounting for heterogeneity in interstate banking coverage. From listed and unlisted firms’ data, we find that when the presence of state-owned banks is strong, state ownership-associated distortions in interest costs are more severe.

Credit Misallocation During the European Financial Crisis

Abstract Using data on bank-firm relationships in Italy during the Eurozone financial crisis, we show that: (i) compared to healthy banks, under-capitalised banks cut credit to healthy but not to zombie firms and are more likely to prolong a credit relationship with a zombie; (ii) in area sectors with more low-capital banks, zombies are more likely to survive; (iii) bank under-capitalisation does not hurt the growth rate of healthy firms. We provide evidence that extending credit to the weakest firms during the recession mitigated the disruption of supply chains and adverse local demand externalities.

Credit Misallocation and Disintermediation in China's Infrastructure Financing

Credit Misallocation and Disintermediation in China's Infrastructure Financing

When Companies Don't Die: Analyzing Zombie and Distressed Firms in a Low Interest Rate Environment

We analyze the phenomenon of zombification in Europe and show that monetary policy alone is not its only driver. Concurring phenomena explain zombie and distressed firms’ prevalence. Using Compustat data on public firms, we find that a rise in short-term interest rates is associated with a decrease in zombie status, suggesting that low rates constitute a favorable environment for zombie firms; there is no evidence of credit misallocation within the ECB’s Corporate Sector Purchase Program; and that a decrease in inflation and a lower state of the business cycle is associated with a rise in zombie prevalence.

Does privatization reform alleviate ownership discrimination? Evidence from the Split-share structure reform in China

This paper investigates the institutional origins of ownership discrimination in bank lending through a staggered quasi-natural experiment: China's Split-share Structure Reform. State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) have an advantage over non-SOEs in securing external financing to protect investment opportunities from cash flow fluctuations. This financing privilege declined significantly after the reform, which mandatorily converted SOEs' non-tradable state-owned shares into tradable shares, sharply increasing the likelihood of further privatization. Consistent evidence also exists in terms of bank lending behaviors. Further, we show both direct and indirect evidence that the effects were more pronounced among SOEs under higher threats of privatization (e.g., firms with larger increases in tradable shares, smaller workforce, and in industries peripheral to national strategy). The evidence suggests that banks proactively prefer SOEs for the perceived safety of loans under implicit government guarantee; when this privilege disappeared after the reform, banks reacted by allocating credits more fairly. This paper provides new evidence on the bright side of share structure reforms in mitigating credit misallocation and enlightens policy makers to practical resolutions to the financing inefficiency in emerging capital markets.

Misallocation of scientific credit: the role of hierarchy and preferences. An extension of Lissoniet al.(2013)

AbstractWe extend the results in Lissoni et al. (2013, J. Econ. Behav. Organ., 95, 49–69) on scientific credit misallocation, as measured by misalignment between authorship and inventorship recognition in patent-publication pairs. Extending the analysis to European data, we confirm that, other things being equal, the probability of exclusion of a scientific author from a publication-related patent declines with seniority and increases for women. In addition, we find that the senior scientists’ power to exclude other authors plays a more important role in explaining the patterns of exclusion than differences in authors’ attribution preferences. The unfavorable treatment of young and/or female scientists emerges in particular when patents are owned by companies or individuals, thus providing a warning flag on those institutional arrangements that favor company or individual ownership of academic patents.