Credible Method Research Articles

A new adaptive approach for bridging the gap in insurance premium estimation

This paper proposes a new adaptive approach called adaptive mean (ADM) that combines the strengths of trimming and winsorization to minimize the mean square error (MSE). ADM will contribute significantly to insurers by enabling them to mitigate risk exposure caused by inaccurate premium estimation and establish more precise premiums for their clients. Furthermore, the proposed mean offers several pros compared to the conventional mean. It facilitates the natural and intuitive calculation of risk loading, identifies and measures the impact of large claims, and analyzes premium susceptibility to skewed risk by capturing the tails of the relevant loss models. In addition, this paper reviews two established, robust credibility methods (trimming and winsorization). It compares them with our proposed method, resulting in a more reliable and robustly accurate method for credibility premium estimation. We presented and analyzed two real data sets from engineering insurance companies and the Wisconsin Office of the Insurance Commissioner to highlight the advances of ADM in minimizing the MSE and building more robust credibility models that are less vulnerable to outlier events and model uncertainty.

Enhanced thermal shock resistance of SiCf/SiC composites with Y-Al-Si-O glass ceramic environmental barrier coatings in water-oxygen conditions at 1350°C

In this study, Y-Al-Si-O(YAS) glass-ceramic environmental barrier coatings were prepared after modifying CVI-SiCf/SiC composites with microcrystalline glass. The resistance of both SiCf/SiC and SiCf/SiC with YAS-EBC to thermal shock was systematically examined using a water quenching method. The findings demonstrate that the SiCf/SiC composites with YAS-EBC exhibits outstanding thermal shock resistance. The coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) of the YAS coating exhibits minimal deviation from that of SiCf/SiC and possesses a low modulus of elasticity. Upon experiencing thermal shock, the YAS coating is subjected to tensile stress, with an average thermal stress of merely ∼4.4 MPa. After undergoing 100 cycles, there was no evidence of debonding between the coating and the substrate, nor was a thermally grown oxide (TGO) layer observed at the interface. This research provides a credible method and theoretical foundation for enhancing the thermal shock resistance behavior of CVI-SiCf/SiC composites.

Bayesian Shrinkage Estimation of Credible Subgroups for Count Data with Excess Zeros

Heterogeneity of treatment effects due to heterogeneous patient characteristics often arises in clinical trials. Subgroup analysis and the analysis of interactions are the most common approaches for evaluating such heterogeneous effects but do not explicitly address multiplicity issues. Another common challenge of analyzing treatment effect heterogeneity is the large number of possible covariates which inevitably causes problems related to multiplicity and lack of power. In this article, we develop a Bayesian credible subgroups method using continuous shrinkage priors to assess heterogeneity in treatment effects and multiplicity-adjusted benefiting subgroup identification for zero-inflated count data, which are often encountered in medical and public health studies. Our proposed method provides two bounding subgroups for the true benefiting subgroup: one that is probably contained by the true benefiting subgroup and one that probably contains the true benefiting subgroup. A simulation study has been conducted to compare the performance of the proposed method with other methods through frequentist properties. We apply our method to a clinical bladder tumor trial studying the effect of thiotepa treatment on the reduction of the recurrence of bladder tumor.

Credible calculation method for regional corrected carbon emission factors taking into account the nearby consumption of renewable energy

Abstract The carbon emission factor of the power grid is a key data indicator for measuring the carbon emission level on the user side. Currently, the carbon emission factor of the power grid is not sufficient to accurately express the regional carbon emission level, and especially cannot accurately reflect the regional new energy consumption level, which affects user confidence in emission reduction and the accuracy of carbon emission quota issuance. Therefore, this article utilizes blockchain technology and carbon emission flow theory to realize the impact of user-side self-generated and self-used photovoltaics (PV) on carbon emission factors. We have constructed a residual power grid correction model, designed a blockchain intelligent terminal module and functional requirements, ensured the correctness of the model and results from the source, solved the problem of data tampering and insufficient data credibility generated by terminal devices at the source, and ultimately helped achieve the dual carbon goal.

Investigating Stability in Subgroup Identification for Stratified Medicine.

Subgroup analysis may be used to investigate treatment effect heterogeneity among subsets of the study population defined by baseline characteristics. Several methodologies have been proposed in recent years and with these, statistical issues such as multiplicity, complexity, and selection bias have been widely discussed. Some methods adjust for one or more of these issues; however, few of them discuss or consider the stability of the subgroup assignments. We propose exploring the stability of subgroups as a sensitivity analysis step for stratified medicine to assess the robustness of the identified subgroups besides identifying possible factors that may drive this instability. After applying Bayesian credible subgroups, a nonparametric bootstrap can be used to assess stability at subgroup-level and patient-level. Our findings illustrate that when the treatment effect is small or not so evident, patients are more likely to switch to different subgroups (jumpers) across bootstrap resamples. In contrast, when the treatment effect is large or extremely convincing, patients generally remain in the same subgroup. While the proposed subgroup stability method is illustrated through Bayesian credible subgroups method on time-to-event data, this general approach can be used with other subgroup identification methods and endpoints.

Quantitative characterization of occupational sites of implanted P atoms in diamond

The authors implanted P atoms at 50 and 140-keV energies with respective fluences of 1×1014 and 2×1014/cm2 into diamond thin films synthesized by chemical vapor deposition on the type-Ib diamond substrate formed by high-pressure and high-temperature conditions. The occupational sites of implanted P atoms were determined in each processing stage of P implantation, ion-beam-induced epitaxial crystallization (IBIEC) annealing by 3-MeV-Ne2+ ion irradiation at 750°C, and thermal annealing at 850°C in vacuum, by quantitatively comparing the random and channeling yields in Rutherford backscattering (RBS) measurements. In the analysis of RBS spectra, simulated distributions were fitted to the experimentally obtained spectra and we quantitatively identified the occupational sites and ratio of implanted P atoms. In addition, we investigated the diffusion phenomenon of implanted P atoms during annealing processes from the depth profile of scattered He ions. Consequently, the averaged occupational ratio in the substitutional lattice site was stably recorded around 50%. From the depth profile in the RBS spectra, thermal diffusion of implanted P atoms was clearly observed during the last thermal annealing after MeV-IBIEC annealing. We finally discuss the potentials of the MeV-IBIEC irradiation at relatively low temperatures applying to useful and credible annealing methods for electrical activation as well as recovery of damaged crystallinity.

AS-T[formula omitted]BP: An efficient assignment scheme for space TT&C tasks with bidirectional privacy-preserving under blockchain architecture

In recent years, the space Tracking Telemetry and Command (TT&C) network has attracted much attention because it can provide users with secure and convenient information services. However, there are still challenges in achieving efficient task assignments and providing privacy-preserving for both TT&C parties in precise space TT&C services. In this paper, we propose an efficient blockchain-based task assignment scheme (AS-T3BP) in space TT&C network. Specifically, we introduce authorized privacy set intersection to ensure bidirectional privacy security for task requesters and performers and integrate an improved cuckoo filter algorithm to achieve batch assignment for tasks. And AS-T3BP allows the executor to customize the access policies of TT&C information flexibly, and only authorized satellites can access the information and verify the assignment results. For tasks that fail to be assigned, we propose a distributed and credible task reassignment method, which publishes the tasks on the blockchain built by the TT&C base station, thereby ensuring the real-time and accuracy of task assignments. Performance analysis shows that AS-T3BP is effective and can minimize misinform rates and reassignment rates of 23.39% and 8.85%, alleviate the problem of inefficient task assignment, and still maintain system stability.

A credible traffic prediction method based on self-supervised causal discovery

A credible traffic prediction method based on self-supervised causal discovery

Doubly-Valid/Doubly-Sharp Sensitivity Analysis for Causal Inference with Unmeasured Confounding

We consider the problem of constructing bounds on the average treatment effect (ATE) when unmeasured confounders exist but have bounded influence. Specifically, we assume that omitted confounders could not change the odds of treatment for any unit by more than a fixed factor. We derive the sharp partial identification bounds implied by this assumption by leveraging distributionally robust optimization, and we propose estimators of these bounds with several novel robustness properties. The first is double sharpness: our estimators consistently estimate the sharp ATE bounds when one of two nuisance parameters is misspecified and achieve semiparametric efficiency when all nuisance parameters are suitably consistent. The second and more novel property is double validity: even when most nuisance parameters are misspecified, our estimators still provide valid but possibly conservative bounds for the ATE and our Wald confidence intervals remain valid even when our estimators are not asymptotically normal. As a result, our estimators provide a highly credible method for sensitivity analysis of causal inferences. Supplementary materials for this article are available online including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work.

High-Precision Calorimetry-Based Analysis of Pupal-Pharate Adult Development in Drosophila melanogaster.

In holometabolous insects, the larval body is almost completely decomposed and reconstructed into the adult body during the pupal-pharate adult stages. Therefore, the total energetic cost of this process is a key thermodynamic quantity necessary for evaluating the benefit of their life history. Here, we measured whole-body thermal dissipation of single pupae of the fruit fly, Drosophila melanogaster, during the period from puparium formation to adult eclosion as a function of age, using a high-precision isothermal calorimeter at T = 298 K. The mass-specific energy consumption during the period from the onset of larval-pupal apolysis to adult eclosion was determined to be 2.3 kJ/g for an individual of mass (adult) = 1.0 mg, while it was observed to follow Kleiber's law for individuals smaller than mass (adult) = 1.0 mg. During the pupal-pharate adult period, in addition to the U-shaped variation, several characteristic thermal dissipations related to various events, including somatic muscle contractions, ecdyses, pulsatile hormone secretion in a pharate adult, and vaporization of the exuvial fluid, were observed. The periodic bursts in the pharate adult stage grew exponentially, suggesting that the positive feedback in the metabolic system synchronized with the progression of development, making the energy consumption in this stage more efficient. The present study showed that high-precision calorimetry is a powerful and credible method for measuring not only the total energy spent during development but also the energy spent during every specific developmental event in an organism.

Detection of Drones using SDR as a RADAR

With the evolution of technology, the application of drones in Fourth Generation Warfare has increased manifolds. Drones offer many advantages as they are inexpensive to operate, can fly for longer periods, and are less vulnerable to enemy fire. This makes them an ideal, inconspicuous, and low-cost weapon for both conventional and non-state actors to carry out targeted attacks on valuable targets. Detection of drones is a major challenge as they offer minimum Radio signature and low Radar cross-section. A credible method to detect incoming drones is by employing Software Defined Radio as a RADAR

Visual evoked potential evaluation following brain injury in school-aged children.

Aim: The research aimed to establish reference values of visual evoked potentials among school-aged children after brain injury. Methods: Eighteen patients with persisting visual symptoms after brain injury have been examined. A pattern-VEP test has been used during the examination. Results: The prolongation of the N2 wave in 55,6%-66,6%, P wave in 55,7%-66,7%, and N3 wave in 16,7%-22,2% was determined in the research group. Likewise, the decrease in the amplitude of the P wave was determined in the case of 16,7%-33,3%. According to the topography, we concluded that the prechiasmatic alteration was predominantly determined as bilateral in the optic pathways, with emphasis equally on the right and left. Conclusions: VEP evaluation remains one of the most credible methods of examination. In the case of moderate or severe traumatic optic neuropathy, it allows the detection of damage to the optic pathways before the appearance of organic changes that are often irreversible. The possibility of early detection of such modifications could justify the initiation of a dosed stimulatory treatment, to avoid damage to the optic pathways that would induce secondary optic atrophy. Abbreviations: VEP = visual evoked potentials, MRI = magnetic resonance imaging.

Mapping the self in self‐regulation using complex dynamic systems approach

Complex dynamic systems offer a rich platform for understanding the individual or the person‐specific mechanisms. Yet, in learning analytics research and education at large, a complex dynamic system has rarely been framed, developed, or used to understand the individual student where the learning process takes place. Individual (or person‐specific) methods can accurately and precisely model the individual person, create person‐specific models, and devise unique parameters for each individual. Our study used the latest advances in complex systems dynamics to study the differences between group‐based and individual self‐regulated learning (SRL) dynamics. The findings show that SRL is a complex, dynamic system where different sub‐processes influence each other resulting in the emergence of non‐trivial patterns that vary across individuals and time scales, and as such far from the uniform picture commonly theorized. We found that the average SRL process does not reflect the individual SRL processes of different people. Therefore, interventions derived from the group‐based SRL insights are unlikely to be effective in personalization. We posit that, if personalized interventions are needed, modelling the person with person‐specific methods should be the guiding principle. Our study offered a reliable solution to model the person‐specific self‐regulation processes which can serve as a ground for understanding and improving individual learning and open the door for precision education. Practitioner notesWhat is already known about this topic Self‐regulation is a catalyst for effective learning and achievement. Our understanding of SRL personalization comes from insights based on aggregate group‐based data. What this paper adds Every student has their own unique SRL process that varies from the average in non‐trivial ways. We offer a credible method for mapping the individualized SRL process. SRL dynamics vary across time scales. That is, the trait dynamics are different from the state dynamics, and they should be supported differently. Implications for practice and/or policy Personalization can best be achieved if based on unique person‐specific idiographic methods. Supporting learning and SRL in particular can be more efficient when we understand the differences across time scales and persons and apply insights accordingly. The general SRL average should not be expected to work for everyone.

A novel process for rutin recovery from model solutions using nanofiltration: Experimental study, mathematical modeling, and scale‐up design

AbstractPressure‐driven membrane processes represent a credible method for the separation and concentration of natural polyphenols. The separation characteristics and their productivity depend on several factors such as molecular weight cut‐off, operating conditions, and test cell parameters. In this study, a compact polyamide HFT‐NF150 nanofiltration membrane has been tested to separate different model solutions of rutin, and the effects of operating conditions like trans‐membrane pressure, feed concentration, and feed flow rates were analyzed. All the findings of the experiment revealed that the maximum permeate flux of 3.04 × 10−5 m3/m2 s and 98.5% rejection were obtained at a high feed flow rate of 36 L/h and a high pressure of 6 × 105 Pa. Also, the Spiegler–Kedem model is used to report the mass transport phenomenon across the membrane. The unconstrained minimization technique based on the simplex search method was applied for the estimation of the unknown parameters. The theoretical and experimental values for permeate characteristics were then compared for each experimental data point for the model validation. Later, a mathematical model was used to check the scale‐up viability of the process to the commercial limit.Practical applicationsIn the past few years, naturally occurring bioactive compounds have revolutionized the whole scientific community for their exploration. Rutin is one such phenolic compound that is present in significant amounts in buckwheat and has a wide range of applications in the food and pharmaceutical industries. In this work, an energy‐efficient and cleaner method of nanofiltration is applied to concentrate the rutin from the model plant extract. Experiments were performed on a polyamide nanofiltration membrane with a molecular weight cut‐off of 150 Da at different operating conditions. Experimental results were fitted in a three‐parameter Spiegler–Kedem model to determine the transport parameters of the membrane for rutin. The values of transport parameters were also successfully validated using the experimental results. Experimental results and model predictions were then used to analyze the effects of different operating parameters. A scale‐up setup has been designed and simulated to check the feasibility of the process at the commercial level.

Achievement of high-strength Al/CFRP hybrid joint via high-speed friction stir lap joining and laser texturing pretreatment parameters variation

This paper presents the achievement of a high-strength Al/CFRP hybrid joint through a high-speed friction stir lap joining process, combined with variations in laser surface texturing pretreatment parameters. The study examined the impact of laser surface texturing parameters by varying the depth, interval distance and width of the laser texture. By adjusting laser texturing parameters, the softened PA66 was fully infused into the textured grooves on the aluminum surface, leading to a significant reduction in interfacial voids and cracks in Al/CFRP. The preliminary tensile shear test showed that the hybrid joint broke at the CFRP base material, indicating that the laser texturing exhibited excellent Al/CFRP interface strengthening ability. Further compression shear tests were applied to reveal the actual interfacial load-carrying performance for comparison. The maximum shear strength of 25.5−1.34+0.7 MPa was achieved at a joining speed of 3000 mm/min. Additionally, a mathematical model was proposed to assess the strengthening impact of laser texturing parameters, considering micro-texture geometry and interfacial defects. The tearing of PA66, detachment of carbon fibers, and the breakage of carbon fibers were the three primary types of fracture modes identified at the Al/CFRP interface. The joining mechanism revealed that both mechanical interlocking and the chemical bonding of Al-O-C contributed to the increase in joint shear strength. This study presents a credible method for producing high-strength Al/CFRP lightweight structures.

Rapid quantitative detection system for measles virus-neutralizing antibodies using HiBiT-tagged virus-like particles.

Immunological testing to detect neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) is important in measles (MV) infection control. Currently, the plaque reduction neutralization testis the only credible method for measuring actual virus NAbs; however, its feasibility is hampered by drawbacks, such as long turnaround times, low throughput, and the need for laboratory biosafety equipment. To solve these problems, we developed a simple and rapid MV-NAb detection system using lentivirus-based virus-like particlesincorporated with the NanoLuc fragment peptide HiBiT comprising the MV fusion protein and hemagglutinin on their exterior surface. Overall, this simple, safe, and rapid method could be used to detect MV NAbs.

The Role Of Educators In The Concept Curriculum Implementation From Time To Time In Indonesia

The aim of this research is to analyze the role of teachers and analyze curriculum implementation from time to time. The type of research in this research is library research or library research. The data collection techniques used in this research are literature and documentation. Testing the validity of the data in this qualitative research uses credibility, transferability, dependability and conformability test methods. The results of the research are: the curriculum preparation by the government currently implemented in Indonesia is always undergoing changes, including changing the role of teachers in its implementation. The role of teachers in the concept of curriculum implementation from time to time is reduced compared to the role of teachers in the KBK and KTSP Curriculum, namely as technical implementers. So the 2013 curriculum and the independent curriculum open up opportunities for every teacher to be able to optimize the effectiveness of learning in the classroom and outside the classroom in order to improve the quality of education through increasing teacher competency. The independent curriculum needs to be prepared carefully in order to improve the quality of education towards Indonesia's golden era in 2045. There are many aspects that must be considered, including: 1) Human resource readiness, 2) school facilities, 3) Learning Achievement (CP) is a priority, 4) Learning tools and resources are aligned with student character, 5) learning methods and evaluation must be adjusted to student needs, 6) Student needs must be seen in detail by the teacher.

Penentuan Rate Asuransi Kendaraan Bermotor Menggunakan Kredibilitas Bayesian

<p>This paper uses Credibility to determine new rate based on data of historical claim in a motor vehicle insurance in Bandung, Indonesia. Rate is formed based on past loss through experience rating. Credibility is one of the examples of experience rating that considers group historical claims. One of the credibility methods is Bayesian credibility that considers rate as a random variable. Bayesian credibility is used based on claim frequency and claim severity from a group of policy holders in order to create new rates. In this paper, claim frequency followed the Poisson distribution while claim severity followed the Lognormal distribution. Result of analysis showed that rate values based on claim frequency and severity are higher than the rate values that were used back in 2010.</p><p><strong>Keywords</strong><strong>:</strong> bayesian credibility; rate; claim frequency; claim severity</p>

Understanding with a Practical Perspective the Corruption Mode of Goods/Services Procurement in Indonesian Public Organizations

This research aims to clarify the study of corruption in public procurement in public organizations in Indonesia, which when studied through the dimensions of anthropology and democracy is considered too broad in scope and cannot touch the main substance in the discussion of corruption that is specific to public organizations. Corruption in public procurement management in Indonesia is still seen as part of unethical behavior and from a rational perspective is also seen as deviant behavior. The factors for the formation of unethical behavior and categorized as deviant behavior are due to, among others, the structural pressure factors of individuals in public organizations and the intervention factors of parties ranging from vendors, state administrators, and state officials in providing "lure" in the form of gifts or rewards for state administrators and state officials to abuse authority. The results of the study successfully identified modes of corruption in the procurement of goods/services based on the stages and perpetrators of corruption. Corruption in particular in Indonesia is also caused by the weak supervision and management system for preventing corruption in Indonesia. The design of an appropriate and credible public procurement method is one of the solutions to reduce the risk of corruption that begins with the public procurement process. The e-Purchasing method with the e-Cataloque mechanism without negotiations with vendors as a concrete manifestation of the selection of goods/services procurement methods is considered to be very supportive of corruption prevention efforts in Indonesia, because it can directly limit corrupt behavior in public organizations. The novelty, in this study, is to provide recommendations for improvement in the form of a recommendation system design for government procurement of goods/services that is more directed at prioritizing the use of the e-Purchasing method with the e-Cataloque mechanism to reduce the risk of corruption in government spending.

Diagnostic value of adenohypophyseal MRI features in female children with precocious puberty

To evaluate the diagnostic value of adenohypophyseal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features for precocious puberty (PP) in female children and also to establish a non-invasive diagnostic approach in clinics. A total of 126 female children (37, 57, and 32 female children clinically diagnosed with central PP [CPP], incomplete PP [IPP], and controls, respectively) were enrolled in this study. Data were collected and analysed using analysis of variance. Pearson correlation and stepwise multivariate linear regression analysis were used to examine the association and build prediction models. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to evaluate the diagnostic efficacy. The values of adenohypophysis volume (aPV), adenohypophysis height (aPH), and signal-intensity ratio (SIR), height, weight, and seven laboratory testing characteristics were correlated closely with the activation status of the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonad axis in the different groups (all p<0.05). Model 1 including aPV, weight, and aPH and Model 2 including SIR, aPV, and height were built to obtain predicted luteinising hormone (LH; R2=0.271) and LH/follicle stimulating hormone (FSH; R2=0.311). ROC analysis showed the predicted LH, predicted LH/FSH, and aPV were the top 3 best predictors in distinguishing CPP from controls (AUC=0.969, 0.949, and 0.938) while predicted LH/FSH was the best predictor in distinguishing CPP from IPP and controls (AUC=0.829 and 0.828). The adenohypophysis volume itself and the prediction models including main adenohypophyseal MRI features increased diagnostic efficiency for PP and offered a non-invasive and credible diagnostic method.