Credible Degree Recognition Criterion Research Articles

Evaluation of the Development Potential of Urban Underground Space Using Set Pair Analysis and the Comprehensive Weight Method

Recently, a series of urban diseases have seriously impacted the development of large and medium cities. The development of urban underground space (UUS) is widely regarded as an effective solution. Due to the irreversibility of underground space resources, it is important to formulate scientific and reasonable development planning based on evaluation of the development potential of urban underground space (DPUUS). In this work, from the perspective of society, economy, and environment, an evaluation model of the DPUUS was established, and nine indexes were selected, including population density, vehicle possessive quantity per 100 capita, policy support, GDP per capita, GDP per km2, land price, geographical position, geological conditions, and natural disasters. The comprehensive weight method (CWM) combined with subjective and objective weights was used to determine the final weight of the evaluation index. Set pair analysis (SPA) and the credible degree recognition criterion (CDRC) were applied to determine the DPUUS grade of each city, which can provide a new idea for DPUUS.

An Improved Unascertained Measure-Set Pair Analysis Model Based on Fuzzy AHP and Entropy for Landslide Susceptibility Zonation Mapping

Landslides are one of the most destructive and common geological disasters in the Tonglvshan mining area, which seriously threatens the safety of surrounding residents and the Tonglvshan ancient copper mine site. Therefore, to effectively reduce the landslide risk and protect the safety of the Tonglvshan ancient copper mine site, it is necessary to carry out a systematic assessment of the landslide susceptibility in the study area. Combining the unascertained measure (UM) theory, the dynamic comprehensive weighting (DCW) method based on the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP)-entropy weight method and the set pair analysis (SPA) theory, an improved UM-SPA coupling model for landslide susceptibility assessment is proposed in this study. First, a hierarchical evaluation index system including 10 landslide conditioning factors is constructed. Then, the dynamic comprehensive weighting method based on the fuzzy AHP-entropy weight method is used to assign independent comprehensive weights to each evaluation unit. Finally, we optimize the credible degree recognition criteria of UM theory by introducing SPA theory to quantitatively determine the landslide susceptibility level. The results show that the improved UM-SPA model can produce landslide susceptibility zoning maps with high reliability. The whole study area is divided into five susceptibility levels. 5.8% and 10.16% of the Tonglvshan mining area are divided into extremely high susceptibility areas and high susceptibility areas, respectively. The low and extremely low susceptibility areas account for 30.87% and 34.14% of the total area of the study area, respectively. Comparison with the AHP and Entropy-FAHP models indicates that the improved UM-SPA model (AUC = 0.777) shows a better performance than the Entropy-FAHP models (AUC = 0.764) and the conventional AHP (AUC = 0.698). Therefore, these results can provide reference for emergency planning, disaster reduction and prevention decision-making in the Tonglvshan mining area.

A new method of bid evaluation for renovation projects: Based on unascertained measure theory and entropy weight

To determine the winning bidder of renovation projects scientifically and reasonably, this paper constructs a bid evaluation model for renovation projects based on unascertained measure theory and the entropy weight method. According to the classification criteria of each index, a single-index unascertained measure function is constructed, and the unascertained measure of each index is calculated. The index weight is determined by the entropy weight method, the bid evaluation grade is determined by credible degree recognition criteria, superiority ranking is carried out, and the optimal result is obtained. Finally, an actual case study is used to verify the validity and practicability of the model. This case study shows that the model is an organic combination of the entropy weight method and unascertained measure theory and can provide a new idea for bid evaluation of renovation projects.

An Evaluation of the Petroleum Investment Environment in African Oil-Producing Countries Based on Combination Weighting and Uncertainty Measure Theory

Recognizing that the evaluation of the overseas petroleum investment environment is affected by many uncertain factors and that there are problems with current evaluation methods, this paper proposes a mathematical evaluation model of an overseas oil resources investment environment, based on a combination of the weighting and uncertainty measure theory. Combining international investment environment theory with the characteristics of the petroleum industry, this paper establishes an evaluation index system for the overseas petroleum investment environment and the linear uncertainty measure function of each index. Using the subjective weight obtained using an analytic hierarchy process together with the objective weight obtained using the entropy weight method, the optimal weight of each evaluation index was obtained using minimum relative information entropy. A multi-index evaluation matrix of the top 12 oil-producing countries in Africa was calculated. Finally, the credible degree recognition criterion was used to judge the order and level of the oil investment environment. This model provides an effective method for the evaluation of the overseas petroleum investment environment. The results show that Nigeria and Angola have the best investment climate, followed by Algeria, Egypt, and Libya. In general, Africa is an important strategic partner of China and is rich in oil resources. Although Africa’s oil industry is fraught with complex challenges and headwinds, challenges also present opportunities.

Unascertained Measure-Set Pair Analysis Model of Collapse Risk Evaluation in Mountain Tunnels and Its Engineering Application

Collapse is a major geological disaster that occurs during mountain tunnel construction. However, the accuracy of collapse risk assessment is generally restricted by evaluation factors or methods. This paper proposes a novel integrated collapse risk evaluation method for mountain tunnels based on case-based reasoning, rough set theory, and unascertained measure-set pair analysis (UM-SPA) theory. First, the risk surroundings and risk factors involved in tunnel collapse are summarized by the analytic hierarchy process, and a preliminary risk evaluation index system is established. Then, an attribute reduction algorithm based on the conditional information entropy of a rough set is proposed and applied to cases with similar attribute characteristics as those of the tunnel to be evaluated, to remove the relatively insignificant or redundant indices and improve the reliability of risk assessment. Finally, taking the relationship between tunnel collapse and its evaluation indices as an unascertained system, Set Pair Analysis (SPA) theory is introduced to optimize the credible degree recognition criteria of unascertained measure theory (UMT). Combined with the modified entropy weight method, a UM-SPA model for tunnel collapse risk evaluation is established to calculate the level of collapse risk quantitatively and predict the development trend of risk dynamically. Taking Xiucun Tunnel passing through fault F18 as an example, collapse risk is evaluated and compared with the evaluation results of traditional UMT and field status. The results demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of the proposed approach and provide a new idea for collapse risk prediction while constructing mountain tunnels.

An Improved Uncertainty Measure Theory Based on Game Theory Weighting

In the application of uncertainty measure theory, the determination method of index weight mainly includes the subjective weight determination method and the objective weight determination method. The subjective weight determination method has the disadvantages affected by the subjective preference of the decision-maker. The objective weight determination method often ignores the participation degree of the decision-maker, and when using the uncertainty measure evaluation model to perform multi-index classification evaluation, the credible degree recognition criterion is often used as the attribute recognition of the object to be measured, because the credible degree is taken by the subjective people, and the different values of different people have a great influence on the evaluation results. In order to solve the above problems in the uncertainty measure theory, this paper used the combination weighting of game theory to determine the optimal weight. At the same time, the credible degree recognition criterion was improved on the basis of the concept of minimum uncertainty measure distance, and a game theory-improved uncertainty measure optimization model was proposed. Finally, the validity of the model was proven by a case.

Evaluation Failure Possibility of Oil and Gas Pipelines Based on Uncertainty Measurement Theory

This paper presents an uncertainty measurement theory approach to evaluate failure possibility from failure factors of buried pipelines. The approach considers five levels of failure possibility and selects twenty failure factors. Single index measurement functions for failure factors are used to calculate the measurement values to the failure levels. The measurement values form a single index measurement evaluation matrix, from which a weight vector is developed using information entropy theory. The multi-index uncertainty measurement is determined from the cross product of the single index measurement matrix and the weight vector. The level of failure possibility is judged by credible degree recognition criteria. The proposed approach is demonstrated to be applicable for evaluating failure possibility of pipelines and outperforms other methods.

The evaluation of potential for the exploration and development of coalbed methane resources based on an improved uncertainty measure optimization model

The recognition criteria of credible degree in uncertainty measure theory are improved based on the concept of distance discriminant and used to evaluate the potential for exploration and development of coalbed methane. This paper uses a systematic approach to establish a mathematical model based on entropy weight and improved uncertainty measure theory. In this model, uncertainty influence factors were analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively using data for the Muli coalfield of Qinghai province, China. The uncertainty measure function is based on experimental data, and the weight of index is determined by entropy weight theory. Optimization credible degree recognition criteria were used to evaluate the potential for coalbed methane exploration and development of six mines in the Muli coalfield. These data indicate that evaluation results obtained using entropy weight and improved uncertainty measure theory have practical application and can effectively assess the exploration and development potential of coalbed methane in a coal basin.

Subgrade Stability Evaluation in Permafrost Regions Based on Unascertained Measurement Model

With regard to the complex and changeable engineering properties of subgrade in the permafrost regions, a stability-evaluating and order-arranging model of subgrade in permafrost regions is established based on the unascertained measurement theory. Subgrades of Qinghai–Tibet Railway in permafrost regions is taken as examples in view of the unique geological environment conditions. Twelve factors, which influence the subgrade stability, are selected as the evaluation indexes and analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively. The grading standard and stability evaluation index system are constructed. Entropy theory is used to calculate the index weights of evaluation factors, and the stability grade of five typical sections in permafrost regions is judged by credible degree recognition criterion. Meanwhile, the stability of permafrost subgrade is sorted according to evaluation sorting values. It is shown that the results offered by unascertained measurement model assessment are consistent with those by the fuzzy evaluation method. Furthermore, the proposed method can take into account the unascertained information in stability evaluation, which provides an effective method for the subgrade stability evaluation in permafrost regions.

Quantitative evaluation and case studies of cleaner mining with multiple indexes considering uncertainty factors for phosphorus mines

Since phosphorus is indispensable for the agricultural production, the demand for the phosphate rock is increasing with the agricultural development. For the sustainable development of phosphorus resources, the environmental pollution problem caused by the mining of phosphate rock should be solved efficiently. The cleaner production of phosphorus mines is exactly the basis and method for the sustainable development. Focusing on the environmental characteristics and main mining processes of phosphorus mines, 31 evaluation indexes were selected from 6 aspects including the management level, environmental protection level, mining technique, mining economic indicators, comprehensive utilization level of waste, and processed environmental level, to establish the comprehensive evaluation system for the cleaner production of phosphorus mines. The 5 qualitative evaluation indexes were quantified according to the classification criteria. The 26 quantitative evaluation indexes were determined through the measurement values. The single index measurement values were solved through the semi-trapezoid (ST) and semi-ridge (SR) membership functions. The weights of evaluation indexes were determined based on the theories of uncertainty measurement evaluation (UME) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The evaluation vectors were evaluated by applying the credible degree recognition criterion (CDRC) and the maximum membership principle (TMMP). A total of 8 coupled methods including ST-UME-CDRC, ST-UME-TMMP, ST-AHP-CDRC, ST-AHP-TMMP, SR-UME-CDRC, SR-UME-TMMP, SR-AHP-CDRC, and SR-AHP-TMMP were developed based on the combination of ST and SR membership functions, UME and AHP theories, as well as recognition criteria CDRC and TMMP. The cleaner production grades of two phosphorous mines in China were evaluated using these developed coupling methods. The future suggestions and approaches were given to improve cleaner production grades. Results show that ST-UME-CDRC method is the most reasonable among 8 coupled methods, which can not only evaluate the cleaner production grades of phosphorous mines, but also can provide a useful guidance to the sustainable development of phosphorous mines.

A multi-factor comprehensive risk assessment method of karst tunnels and its engineering application

The tunnel collapse, a large deformation of surrounding rock, water and mud inrush are the main geological disasters in the process of tunnel construction. In order to control the above construction risks, the multi-factor comprehensive risk assessment method of karst tunnels is investigated in this study. Firstly, twelve influencing factors are selected as comprehensive risk assessment indexes of the karst tunnel from the aspects of karst hydrogeology and engineering geology conditions, as well as construction factors. The corresponding grading standards of assessment indexes are determined. The tunnel collapse, large deformation of surrounding rock, water and mud inrush, and comprehensive risk assessment index systems are established respectively. Secondly, the unascertained measure analysis for assessment indexes is carried out. The single risk grade and comprehensive risk grade are judged respectively by using credible degree recognition criteria. Thirdly, the most serious geological disaster is ascertained based on the riskiest principle, and then comprehensive risk control theories and technical systems of the karst tunnel can be built. Finally, the established unascertained measure model and the proposed multi-factor comprehensive risk assessment method are applied to the risk assessment of the Yichang-Wanzhou Railway Dazhiping tunnel. The assessment results are in good agreement with the site construction conditions. The research results provide an effective approach for comprehensive risk assessment methods of karst tunnels.

Assessment of sustainable urban transport development based on entropy and unascertained measure.

To find a more effective method for the assessment of sustainable urban transport development, the comprehensive assessment model of sustainable urban transport development was established based on the unascertained measure. On the basis of considering the factors influencing urban transport development, the comprehensive assessment indexes were selected, including urban economical development, transport demand, environment quality and energy consumption, and the assessment system of sustainable urban transport development was proposed. In view of different influencing factors of urban transport development, the index weight was calculated through the entropy weight coefficient method. Qualitative and quantitative analyses were conducted according to the actual condition. Then, the grade was obtained by using the credible degree recognition criterion from which the urban transport development level can be determined. Finally, a comprehensive assessment method for urban transport development was introduced. The application practice showed that the method can be used reasonably and effectively for the comprehensive assessment of urban transport development.

Occupational hazard evaluation model underground coal mine based on unascertained measurement theory

In order to study how to comprehensively evaluate the influence of several occupational hazard on miners’ physical and mental health, based on unascertained measurement theory, occupational hazard evaluation indicator system was established to make quantitative and qualitative analysis. Determining every indicator weight by information entropy and estimating the occupational hazard level by credible degree recognition criteria, the evaluation model was programmed by Visual Basic, applying the evaluation model to occupational hazard comprehensive evaluation of six posts under a coal mine, and the occupational hazard degree was graded, the evaluation results are consistent with actual situation. The results show that dust and noise is most obvious among the coal mine occupational hazard factors. Excavation face support workers are most affected, secondly, heading machine drivers, coal cutter drivers, coalface move support workers, the occupational hazard degree of these four types workers is II mild level. The occupational hazard degree of ventilation workers and safety inspection workers is I level. The evaluation model could evaluate underground coal mine objectively and accurately, and can be employed to the actual engineering.

Application of Uncertainty Mathematics Theory in Water Environmental Quality Evaluation

Accompanied with rapid economic growth and human development, the world faces severe water shortages, which pose a serious threat to human society. In the present study, the significance of water environmental quality evaluation and problems found in available evaluation methods were discussed, with a focus on prior research results. This paper selected ammonia nitrogen (NH3-N), chemical oxygen demand (COD), cyanide, volatile phenol and petroleum as evaluation factors, and established level-evaluating and order-arranging models of water environmental quality on the basis of information entropy and uncertainty measure theory. The uncertainty influence factors based on the real situation were quantitatively and qualitatively analyzed, and the experimental data were used to establish the uncertainty measure function. Also, we adopted information entropy theory to calculate the weight of the index, and determined the level and level order of water environmental quality based on credible degree recognition criterion. The developed model was applied to assess water environmental quality in four sections of Dan River Basin. The results show that uncertainty measure method is reasonable, with the potential significance of assessing water environment quality in the future.

Quantitative Evaluation and Case Study of Risk Degree for Underground Goafs with Multiple Indexes considering Uncertain Factors in Mines

The accidents caused by underground goafs are frequent and destructive due to irregular geometric shapes and complex spatial distributions, which caused severe damage to the environment and public health. Based on the theories of uncertainty measurement evaluation (WME) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the comprehensive risk evaluation of underground goafs was carried out using multiple indexes. Considering the hydrogeological conditions, mining status, and engineering parameters of underground goafs, the evaluation index system was established to evaluate the risk degrees considering quantified uncertain factors. The single index measurement values were solved by the semiridge measurement function. The weights for evaluation vectors were calculated through the entropy theory and AHP. Finally, the risk level was evaluated according to the credible degree recognition criterion (CDRC) and the maximum membership principle. The risk levels of 37 underground goafs in Dabaoshan mine were evaluated using 4 coupled methods. The order for underground goafs risk degrees was ranked and classified on account of the uncertainty important degree. According to the ranked order, the reasonability of 4 coupled methods was evaluated quantitatively. Results show that the UME-CDRC can be applied in the practical engineering, which provides an efficient guidance to both reduce the accident risk and improve the mining environment.

Study and Application on Evaluation Model of Atmospheric Environmental Quality Based on Uncertainty Measure Theory

At present, the atmospheric environmental quality became one of the problems increasingly concerned, and uncertainty measure method had been applied in many fields. The significance of atmospheric environmental quality evaluation and existing problems of evaluation methods were discussed, with attention paid to prior research results. This paper selected three atmospheric environmental pollution factors such as SO2, NO2 and PM10 as evaluation parameters to establish level-evaluating and order-arranging models of atmospheric environmental quality on the basis of information entropy and uncertainty measure theory. In the model, this paper used annual air pollution monitoring data in Xinxiang city during 2006 to 2010 to build uncertainty measure function, adopted information entropy theory to give the weight of index and used credible degree recognition criterion to judge atmospheric environmental quality level and order. The example analysis shows that it is reasonable and has significance for the evaluation of atmospheric environment quality in the future.

Unascertained measure model of water and mud inrush risk evaluation in karst tunnels and its engineering application

Water and mud inrush is one of the typical geological disasters during tunnel construction in karst areas. In order to effectively control the water and mud inrush risk and guarantee the safety of tunnel construction, an unascertained measure model of water and mud inrush risk evaluation is established based on unascertained measure theory. First, according to geological factors and engineering factors in tunnel zone, unfavorable geology, formation lithology, ground water level, topography and geomorphology, attitude of rocks, contact zones between soluble rock and non-soluble rock, crack in rock stratum, surrounding rock grade, construction technology level, and management level are selected as risk evaluation indexes of water and mud inrush, which constitutes the index system of water and mud inrush risk evaluation. Through collecting and collating information of typical water and mud inrush examples of karst tunnels, the uncertainty measure function of each evaluation index is obtained based on the measured data. Meanwhile, the index weight of each factor is ascertained by entropy-information theory, and the risk grade of water and mud inrush is judged by credible degree recognition criteria. In engineering application, the water and mud inrush risk of Qiyueshan tunnel is evaluated based on the established unascertained measure model. The results show that: (1) The evaluation results agree well with practical construction situation. (2) The unascertained measure model is scientific and reasonable, which can achieve the risk level evaluation of water and mud inrush systematically. (3) The unascertained measure model provides an effective method for water and mud inrush risk evaluation of karst tunnels, which can be applied to practical engineering.

Study and Application of Safety Risk Evaluation Model for CO2Geological Storage Based on Uncertainty Measure Theory

Analyzing showed that the safety risk evaluation for CO2geological storage had important significance. Aimed at the characteristics of CO2geological storage safety risk evaluation, drawing on previous research results, rank and order models for safety risk evaluation of CO2geological storage were put forward based on information entropy and uncertainty measure theory. In this model, the uncertainty problems in safety risk evaluation of CO2geological storage were solved by qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, respectively; uncertainty measurement functions for the relevant factors were established based on experimental data; information entropy theory was applied to calculate the index weight of factors; safety risk level was judged based on credible degree recognition criterion and ordered. This model was applied in three typical zones of Erdos and Hetao basins. The results show that uncertainty measure method is objective and reasonable and can be used as a new way to evaluate the safety of CO2geological storage sites in the future.

Study and Application on Stability Classification of Tunnel Surrounding Rock Based on Uncertainty Measure Theory

Based on uncertainty measure theory, a stability classification and order-arranging model of surrounding rock was established. Considering the practical engineering geologic condition, 5 factors that influence surrounding rock stability were taken into account and uncertainty measure function was obtained based on the in situ data. In this model, uncertainty influence factors were analyzed quantitatively and qualitatively based on the real situation; the weight of index was given based on information entropy theory; surrounding rock stability level was judged based on credible degree recognition criterion; and surrounding rock was ordered based on order-arranging criterion. Furthermore, this model was employed to evaluate 5 sections surrounding rock in Dongshan tunnel of Huainan. The results show that uncertainty measure method is reasonable and can have significance for surrounding rock stability evaluation in the future.

Optimization model of unascertained measurement for underground mining method selection and its application

An optimization model of underground mining method selection was established on the basis of the unascertained measurement theory. Considering the geologic conditions, technology, economy and safety production, ten main factors influencing the selection of mining method were taken into account, and the comprehensive evaluation index system of mining method selection was constructed. The unascertained evaluation indices corresponding to the selected factors for the actual situation were solved both qualitatively and quantitatively. New measurement standards were constructed. Then, the unascertained measurement function of each evaluation index was established. The index weights of the factors were calculated by entropy theory, and credible degree recognition criteria were established according to the unascertained measurement theory. The results of mining method evaluation were obtained using the credible degree criteria, thus the best underground mining method was determined. Furthermore, this model was employed for the comprehensive evaluation and selection of the chosen standard mining methods in Xinli Gold Mine in Sanshandao of China. The results show that the relative superiority degrees of mining methods can be calculated using the unascertained measurement optimization model, so the optimal method can be easily determined. Meanwhile, the proposed method can take into account large amount of uncertain information in mining method selection, which can provide an effective way for selecting the optimal underground mining method.