CRC-specific Survival Research Articles

Serum Pyridoxal 5′-Phosphate and Pyridoxic Acid Ratio Index with Prognosis of Colorectal Cancer: A Prospective Cohort Study

Background: Studies on the association between serum vitamin B6 status and colorectal cancer prognosis are limited and have yielded inconsistent results. This study investigated the association of pyridoxal 5′-phosphate (PLP) and pyridoxic acid ratio (PAr) index with colorectal cancer survival. Methods: A total of 1286 colorectal cancer patients diagnosed since 2010 were selected from the Guangdong Colorectal Cancer Cohort study. Serum levels of PLP, pyridoxal, and 4-pyridoxic acid were measured using ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry. The study followed overall mortality and colorectal cancer-specific mortality until December 2023. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were applied to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). Restricted cubic spline and stratified analysis were performed. Results: During a median follow-up of 77.36 months, 331 deaths were recorded, with 293 specifically attributed to colorectal cancer. Higher PLP levels were associated with a longer overall survival (HRQ4 vs. Q1, 0.63; 95% CI: 0.46, 0.87; p for trend = 0.008) and colorectal cancer-specific survival (HRQ4 vs. Q1, 0.62; 95% CI: 0.44, 0.87; p for trend = 0.006). Non-linear associations were observed between serum PLP and overall and colorectal cancer-specific survival (p for non-linear < 0.05). However, PAr was not significantly associated with either overall survival (HRQ4 vs. Q1, 1.03; 95% CI: 0.75, 1.41) or colorectal cancer-specific survival (HRQ4 vs. Q1, 1.01; 95% CI: 0.72, 1.42). The association between serum PLP and both overall survival and colorectal cancer-specific survival (p for interaction < 0.05) varied by alcohol drinking status. Conclusions: Higher serum PLP levels, but not PAr, may be associated with improved overall and colorectal cancer-specific survival.

Role of blood metabolites in mediating the effect of gut microbiome on the mutated-RAS/BRAF metastatic colorectal cancer-specific survival

BackgroundRecent studies have linked alterations in the gut microbiome and metabolic disruptions to the invasive behavior and metastasis of colorectal cancer (CRC), thus affecting patient prognosis. However, the specific relationship among gut microbiome, metabolite profiles, and mutated-RAS/BRAF metastatic colorectal cancer (M-mCRC) remains unclear. Furthermore, the potential mechanisms and prognostic implications of metabolic changes induced by gut microbiome alterations in patients with M-mCRC still need to be better understood.MethodsWe conducted Mendelian randomization (MR) to evaluate the causal relationship of genetically predicted 196 gut microbiome features and 1400 plasma metabolites/metabolite ratios on M-mCRC-specific survival. Additionally, we identified significant gut microbiome-metabolites/metabolite ratio associations based on M-mCRC. Metabolite information was annotated, and functional annotation and pathway enrichment analyses were performed on shared proteins corresponding to significant metabolite ratios, aiming to reveal potential mechanisms by which gut microbiome influences M-mCRC prognosis via modulation of human metabolism.ResultsWe identified 11 gut microbiome features and 49 known metabolites/metabolite ratios correlated with M-mCRC-specific survival. Furthermore, we identified 17 gut microbiome-metabolite/metabolite ratio associations specific to M-mCRC, involving eight lipid metabolites and three bilirubin degradation products. The shared proteins corresponding to significant metabolite ratios were predominantly localized within the integral component of the membrane and exhibited enzymatic activities such as glucuronosyltransferase and UDP-glucuronosyltransferase, crucial in processes such as glucuronidation, bile secretion, and lipid metabolism. Moreover, these proteins were significantly enriched in pathways related to ascorbate and aldarate metabolism, pentose and glucuronate interconversions, steroid hormone biosynthesis, and bile secretion.ConclusionOur study offers novel insights into the potential mechanisms underlying the impact of the gut microbiome on the prognosis of M-mCRC. These findings serve as a meaningful reference for exploring potential therapeutic targets and strategies in the future.

Neuronal Distribution in Colorectal Cancer: Associations With Clinicopathological Parameters and Survival

Over the past years, insights in the cancer neuroscience field increased rapidly, and a potential role for neurons in colorectal carcinogenesis has been recognized. However, knowledge on the neuronal distribution, subtypes, origin, and associations with clinicopathological characteristics in human studies is sparse. In this study, colorectal tumor tissues from the Netherlands Cohort Study on diet and cancer (n = 490) and an in-cohort validation population (n = 529) were immunohistochemically stained for the pan-neuronal markers neurofilament (NF) and protein gene product 9.5 (PGP9.5) to study the association between neuronal marker expression and clinicopathological characteristics. In addition, tumor and healthy colon tissues were stained for neuronal subtype markers, and their immunoreactivity in colorectal cancer (CRC) stroma was analyzed. NF-positive and PGP9.5-positive nerve fibers were found within the tumor stroma and mostly characterized by the neuronal subtype markers vasoactive intestinal peptide and neuronal nitric oxide synthase, suggesting that inhibitory neurons are the most prominent neuronal subtype in CRC. NF and PGP9.5 protein expression were not consistently associated with tumor stage, sublocation, differentiation grade, and median survival. NF immunoreactivity was associated with a worse CRC-specific survival in the study cohort (P = .025) independent of other prognostic factors (hazard ratio, 2.31; 95% CI, 1.33-4.03; P = .003), but these results were not observed in the in-cohort validation group. PGP9.5, in contrast, was associated with a worse CRC-specific survival in the in-cohort validation (P = .046) but not in the study population. This effect disappeared in multivariate analyses (hazard ratio, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.50-1.32; P = .393), indicating that this effect was dependent on other prognostic factors. This study demonstrates that the tumor stroma of CRC patients mainly harbors inhibitory neurons and that NF as a single marker is significantly associated with a poorer CRC-specific survival in the study cohort but necessitates future validation.

Establishing Criteria for Tumor Necrosis as Prognostic Indicator in Colorectal Cancer.

Tumor necrosis has been reported to represent an independent prognostic factor in colorectal cancer, but its evaluation methods have not been described in sufficient detail to introduce tumor necrosis evaluation into clinical use. To study the potential of tumor necrosis as a prognostic indicator in colorectal cancer, criteria for 3 methods for its evaluation were defined: the average percentage method (tumor necrosis percentage of the whole tumor), the hotspot method (tumor necrosis percentage in a single hotspot), and the linear method (the diameter of the single largest necrotic focus). Cox regression models were used to calculate cancer-specific mortality hazard ratios (HRs) for tumor necrosis categories in 2 colorectal cancer cohorts with more than 1800 cases. For reproducibility assessment, 30 cases were evaluated by 9 investigators, and Spearman's rank correlation coefficients and Cohen's kappa coefficients were calculated. We found that all 3 methods predicted colorectal cancer-specific survival independent of other prognostic parameters, including disease stage, lymphovascular invasion, and tumor budding. The greatest multivariable HRs were observed for the average percentage method (cohort 1: HR for ≥ 40% vs. <3% 3.03, 95% CI, 1.93-4.78; cohort 2: HR for ≥ 40% vs. < 3% 2.97; 95% CI, 1.63-5.40). All 3 methods had high reproducibility, with the linear method showing the highest mean Spearman's correlation coefficient (0.91) and Cohen's kappa (0.70). In conclusion, detailed criteria for tumor necrosis evaluation were established. All 3 methods showed good reproducibility and predictive ability. The findings pave the way for the use of tumor necrosis as a prognostic factor in colorectal cancer.

The relationship between Stroma AReactive Invasion Front Areas (SARIFA), Warburg-subtype and survival: results from a large prospective series of colorectal cancer patients

BackgroundStroma AReactive Invasion Front Areas (SARIFA) is a recently identified haematoxylin & eosin (H&E)based histopathologic biomarker in gastrointestinal cancers, including colorectal cancer (CRC), defined as direct contact between tumour cells and adipocytes at the tumour invasion front. The current study aimed at validating the prognostic relevance of SARIFA in a large population-based CRC series as well as at investigating the relationship between SARIFA-status and previously established Warburg-subtypes, both surrogates of the metabolic state of the tumour cells.MethodsSARIFA-status (positive versus negative) was determined on H&E slides of 1,727 CRC specimens. Warburg-subtype (high versus moderate versus low) data was available from our previous study. The associations between SARIFA-status, Warburg-subtype, clinicopathological characteristics and CRC-specific as well as overall survival were investigated.Results28.7% (n=496) CRC were SARIFA-positive. SARIFA-positivity was associated with more advanced disease stage, higher pT category, and more frequent lymph node involvement (all p<0.001). SARIFA-positivity was more common in Warburg-high CRC. 44.2% (n=219) of SARIFA-positive CRCs were Warburg-high compared to 22.8% (n=113) being Warburg-low and 33.1% (n=164) being Warburg-moderate (p<0.001). In multivariable-adjusted analysis, patients with SARIFA-positive CRCs had significantly poorer CRC-specific (HRCRC-specific 1.65; 95% CI 1.41-1.93) and overall survival (HRoverall survival 1.46; 95% CI 1.28-1.67) independent of clinically known risk factors and independent of Warburg-subtype. Combining the SARIFA-status and the Warburg-subtype to a combination score (SARIFA-negative/Warburg-high versus SARIFA-positive/Warburg-low versus SARIFA-positive/Warburg-high, and so on) did not improve the survival prediction compared to the use of SARIFA-status alone (SARIFA-negative + Warburg-high: HRCRC-specific 1.08; 95% CI 0.84-1.38; SARIFA-positive + Warburg-low: HRCRC-specific 1.79; 95% CI 1.32-2.41; SARIFA-positive + Warburg-high: HRCRC-specific 1.58; 95% CI 1.23-2.04).ConclusionsOur current study is the by far largest external validation of SARIFA-positivity as a novel independent negative prognostic H&E-based biomarker in CRC. In addition, our study shows that SARIFA-positivity is associated with the Warburg-high subtype. Further research is warranted to provide a more mechanistic understanding of the underlying tumour biology. Based on our data, we conclude SARIFA-status should be implemented in pathologic routine practice to stratify CRC patients.

Abstract LB384: Artificial intelligence measures of tumor infiltrating lymphocytes predict colorectal cancer-specific and overall survival

Abstract Tumor infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) per high-power field (HPF) as measured by expert pathologists is a useful, independent, validated prognostic marker in colorectal cancer (CRC). Artificial intelligence (AI) techniques of deep learning (DL) can predict TILs directly from routinely collected, digitized hematoxylin and eosin (H&amp;E) pathology slides, but AI-predicted TILs have not yet been thoroughly validated as clinically relevant biomarker. Here we test whether AI-predicted TILs per HPF can be validated as an independent prognostic biomarker of CRC-specific survival in patients. We constructed an AI model to predict TILS per HPF using a weakly-supervised, transformer-based deep regression model, trained using 5-fold cross validation in a large dataset (n=1,738) and validated in a second independent dataset (n=223) of CRC cases. The model predicted TILs per HPF as a continuous variable, which was carried forward for survival analyses both as a continuous variable and dichotomized at a previously established a priori threshold of &amp;lt;2 vs. ≥2 TILs per HPF. Using longitudinal data from the population-based Molecular Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Study (median follow-up = 95 months), survival analyses were performed using non-parametric and Cox-proportional hazards models, with and without adjustment for age, sex, ethnicity, stage, and molecularly measured microsatellite instability (MSI). Two or more AI-predicted TILs per HPF were significantly associated with 5-year CRC-specific survival (p=0.0000037), 5-year overall survival (p=0.00021), and overall survival (p=0.000067). In a Cox proportional hazards model adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, stage, and MSI, ≥2 AI-predicted TILs per HPF was significantly associated with improved 5-year CRC-specific survival, with a hazard ratio (HR) = 0.62, (95% confidence interval; 0.43, 0.91), p=0.01. Our new AI-driven deep learning model, which we call HopeSTIL, provides a highly efficient algorithm for analyzing digital pathology images of H&amp;E sections of CRC to quantify TILs per HPF. HopeSTIL is a validated prognostic marker for 5-year CRC-specific survival that does not require a pathologist to manually count and score TILs per HPF. Citation Format: Stephen B. Gruber, Omar S. El Nahhas, Joseph D. Bonner, Joel K. Greenson, Daniel Schmolze, Lawrence Shaktah, Jonathan Salazar, Lorena Reynaga, Sidney Lindsey, Jenny Lu, Allen Mao, Victor Moreno, Stephani L. Schmit, Ya-Yu Tsai, Stanley R. Hamilton, Gad Rennert, Jakob N. Kather. Artificial intelligence measures of tumor infiltrating lymphocytes predict colorectal cancer-specific and overall survival [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2024; Part 2 (Late-Breaking, Clinical Trial, and Invited Abstracts); 2024 Apr 5-10; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(7_Suppl):Abstract nr LB384.

Abstract 6683: The abundance of Fusobacteria nucleatum in tumor tissue is a prognostic factor in patients of right-sided colorectal cancer

Abstract Background: A significant association between the gut microbiome and colorectal carcinogenesis, as well as cancer progression. It has been reported that Fusobacteria nucleatum (F. nucleatum) is one of the most famous bacteria associated with colorectal cancer (CRC). It has been reported that the abundance of F. nucleatum is associated with colorectal cancer-specific survival (CSS), however it remains unclear for association with F. nulceatum and relapse-free survival (RFS). If F. nucleatum has a significant involvement in tumor progression of colorectal cancer, the abundance of F. nucleatum should be associated with not only CSS but also RFS in colorectal cancer. In this study, we measured the bacterial mass of F. nucleatum in tumor tissue of CRC patients in Stage II-III to explore the differences in prognosis. Methods: We included patients with CRC in stage II-III who underwent surgical treatment at Nippon Medical School Hospital between January 2017 and December 2020 except patients who received preoperative chemoradiotherapy and had multiple cancers. We measured the absolute of F. nucleatum copy number of the DNA exacted tumor tissues using droplet digital PCR. Results: 253 patients with CRC were included. 128 patients had pathological stage II and 125 patients had pathological stage III. Among 253 patients, 104 patients had right-sided CRC, 89 patients had left-sided, and 60 patients had rectal cancer. F. nucleatum was detected in 166 patients (65.6%), and the median of F. nucleatum copy number was 1.08 (range; 0.00 -2791.3). F. nucleatum copy number was more abundant in right-sided CRC than in left-sided and rectal cancer (p= 0.02, p=0.01). There was no significant difference between stage II CRC and stage III. We categorized patients into two groups based on the median cut point of F. nucleatum copy number: the F. nucleatum-high group and the F. nucleatum-low group for comparison with clinicopathological features and prognosis. Patients with high abundance of F. nucleatum exhibited T4 of tumor depth (p=0.03), right-sided CRC (p=0.01), longer tumor circumference (p &amp;lt;0.001), longer tumor length (p &amp;lt;0.001), and no lymph node metastasis (p=0.024). There was no significant difference in relapse-free survival between the F. nucleatum-high group and F. nucleatum-low group among whole patients (p=0.53). Analyzing divided tumor location, in right-sided CRC high abundance of F. nucleatum was significantly associated with shorter relapse-free survival than low abundance (p=0.02), while in left-sided and rectal cancer there was no significant difference (p=0.61). Conclusion: F. nucleatum was more abundant in right-sided CRC and associated with relapse-free survival only in right-sided CRC. F. nucleatum may make a greater impact on right-sided CRC than on left-sided and rectal cancer. Citation Format: Toshimitsu Miyasaka, Takeshi Yamada, Sho Kuriyama, Akihisa Matsuda, Kay Uehara, Seiichi Shinji, Yasuyuki Yokoyama, Goro Takahashi, Takuma Iwai, Kohki Takeda, Shintaro Kanaka, Hiroshi Yoshida. The abundance of Fusobacteria nucleatum in tumor tissue is a prognostic factor in patients of right-sided colorectal cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2024; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2024 Apr 5-10; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(6_Suppl):Abstract nr 6683.

Abstract 6403: Presence of Stroma AReactive Invasion Front Areas (SARIFA) - a potential novel histopathological tool for therapy response prediction in colorectal cancer

Abstract Background: Although many approaches based either on molecular investigations or on deep-learning algorithms applied to tissue sections have been proposed to stratify colorectal cancers (CRC) patients, clinical implementation of these novel cost-and time-consuming techniques is lacking, and conventional tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging remains one of the key factors to determine patient’s treatment. Hence, we developed a novel and solely Haematoxylin and Eosin (H&amp;E) based histopathologic prognostic biomarker, called SARIFA (Stroma AReactive Invasion Front Areas, i.e., direct contact between tumor cells and fat cells). Materials/Methods: Based on a previous study, in which we could show that gene-expression based computational drug response prediction (oncoPredict) indicates a SARIFA-dependent differential drug sensitivity, we investigated whether SARIFA-status can predict which CRC patients might benefit from adjuvant therapy. SARIFA-status was established for 1,727 CRC patients from the prospective Netherlands Cohort Study. Multivariate-adjusted Cox regression analysis was performed (median follow-up: 4.79 years, with 1,463 deaths being observed in the first 10 years of follow-up [933, 63.8%, were CRC-related]). Only stages II to IV were included for further analysis regarding differential treatment response (n = 1,384). Results: In Multivariate-adjusted Cox regression analysis including patient age, sex, tumor location, pTNM stage, grade of differentiation, and mismatch repair status, SARIFA-positive CRC patients (n=496) benefitted significantly from adjuvant therapy (HRCRC-specific 0.59; 95% CI 0.44-0.78) compared to SARIFA-positive patients treated with surgery alone, which was not significant for SARIFA-negative CRC patients (HRCRC-specific 0.88; 95% CI 0.68-1.15). Regarding overall survival (OS), adjuvant therapy led to better OS outcomes regardless of SARIFA-status (HRoverall all patients 0.74; 95% CI 0.62-0.87). Conclusion: Our results suggest that SARIFA-positivity predicts a CRC-specific survival benefit from adjuvant therapy. As SARIFA-positivity is closely linked to an upregulation of lipid metabolism and an altered immune response, further studies are warranted to explore the potential benefit of not only conventional chemotherapy but also immunotherapy, targeted therapy as well novel drugs targeting lipid-metabolism. As SARIFA-status can be assessed fast and easily on for every cancer patient available H&amp;E slides, SARIFA-status could serve as an ideal biomarker for a more detailed patient stratification in prospective clinical trials, and should be implemented into clinical routine if further validated. Citation Format: Nic G. Reitsam, Kelly Offermanns, Bianca Grosser, Jessica Zimmermann, Colinda Simons, Jakob N. Kather, Piet A. van den Brandt, Bruno Märkl, Heike I. Grabsch. Presence of Stroma AReactive Invasion Front Areas (SARIFA) - a potential novel histopathological tool for therapy response prediction in colorectal cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2024; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2024 Apr 5-10; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(6_Suppl):Abstract nr 6403.

Prognosis Analysis of Additional Surgical Treatment for High-Risk T1 Colorectal Cancer Patients After Endoscopic Resection

To analyze the effect of additional surgery on the survival and prognosis of high-risk T1 colorectal cancer patients who have undergone endoscopic resection. The clinical data of patients with high-risk T1 colorectal cancer were retrospectively collected. The patients were divided into the endoscopic resection (ER) plus additional surgical resection (SR) group, or the ER+SR group, and the ER group according to whether additional SR were performed after ER. Baseline data of the patients and information on the location, size, and postoperative pathology of the lesions were collected. Patient survival-related information was obtained through the medical record system and patient follow-up. The primary outcome indicators were the overall survival and the colorectal cancer-specific survival. Univariate Cox regression analysis was used to screen survival-related risk factors and hazard ratio (HR) was calculated. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to analyze the independent influencing factors. The data of 109 patients with T1 high-risk colorectal cancer were collected, with 52 patients in the ER group and 57 patients in the ER+SR group. The mean age of patients in the ER group was higher than that in the ER+SR group (65.21 years old vs. 60.54 years old, P=0.035), and the median endoscopic measurement of the size of lesions in the ER group was slightly lower than that in the ER+SR group (2.00 cm vs. 2.50 cm, P=0.026). The median follow-up time was 30.00 months, with the maximum follow-up time being 119 months, in the ER+SR group and there were 4 patients deaths, including one colorectal cancer-related death. Whereas the median follow-up time in the ER group was 28.50 months, with the maximum follow-up time being 78.00 months, and there were 4 patient deaths, including one caused by colorectal cancer. The overall 5-year cumulative survival rates in the ER+SR group and the ER group were 94.44% and 81.65%, respectively, and the cancer-specific 5-year cumulative survival rates in the ER+SR group and the ER group were 97.18% and 98.06%, respectively. The Kaplan-Meier analysis showed no significant difference in the overall cumulative survival or cancer-specific cumulative survival between the ER+SR and the ER groups. Univariate Cox regression analysis showed that age and the number of reviews were the risk factors of overall survival (HR=1.16 and HR=0.27, respectively), with age identified as an independent risk factor of overall survival in the multivariate Cox regression analysis (HR=1.10, P=0.045). For T1 colorectal cancer patients with high risk factors after ER, factors such as patient age and their personal treatment decisions should not be overlooked. In clinical practice, additional caution should be exercised in decision-making concerning additional surgery.

Decreased interleukin-17RA expression is associated with good prognosis in patients with colorectal cancer and inhibits tumor growth and vascularity in mice.

Interleukin-17 (IL-17) is a pro-inflammatory cytokine that plays a vital role in the promotion of tumorigenesis in various cancers, including colorectal cancer (CRC). Based on current evidence, IL-17 binds to interleukin-17 receptor A (IL-17RA); however, the role of IL-17RA has not been elucidated in previous studies on CRC. In this study, we explored the role of IL-17RA in human CRC tissues and the progression of CRC in humans and mice. The expressions of IL-17RA and epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT)-related genes were examined in CRC cells and tissue samples by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction. The role of IL-17RA in pathogenesis and prognosis was evaluated using a Chi-squared test, Kaplan-Meier analysis, univariate, and multivariate Cox regression analysis in 133 CRC patients. A tumor-bearing mice model was executed to evaluate the role of IL-17RA in tumor growth, vascularity and population of infiltrating immune cells. IL-17RA expression was found to be significantly higher in CRC tissues than in adjacent normal tissues. The expression of IL-17RA in Stage IV patients was significantly higher than that in Stages I and II patients. Patients with high IL-17RA expression exhibited significantly worse overall and CRC-specific survival than those with low IL-17RA expression. Functional assessment suggested that the knockdown of IL-17RA expression distinctly suppressed cellular proliferation, migration, invasion, and EMT-related gene expression. In a tumor-bearing mouse model, decreased IL-17RA expression significantly repressed tumor growth and vascularity and reduced the population of regulatory T cells (Tregs) and myeloid-derived suppressor cells (MDSCs). Reduced IL-17RA expression also suppressed cellular proliferation, migration, and invasion, and the expression of EMT genes. Knockdown of IL-17RA inhibited tumor growth and vascularity and decreased the population of Tregs and MDSCs in mouse tumors. Overall, IL-17RA expression was identified to be independently associated with the prognosis of patients with CRC.

Variation in colorectal cancer treatment and outcomes in Scotland: real world evidence from national linked administrative health data

BackgroundColorectal cancer (CRC) is the fourth most common type of cancer in the United Kingdom and the second leading cause of cancer death. Despite improvements in CRC survival over time, Scotland lags behind its UK and European counterparts. In this study, we carry out an exploratory analysis which aims to provide contemporary, population level evidence on CRC treatment and survival in Scotland. MethodsWe conducted a retrospective population-based analysis of adults with incident CRC registered on the Scottish Cancer Registry (Scottish Morbidity Record 06 (SMR06)) between January 2006 and December 2018. The CRC cohort was linked to hospital inpatient (SMR01) and National Records of Scotland (NRS) deaths records allowing a description of their demographic, diagnostic and treatment characteristics. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to explore the demographic and clinical factors associated with all-cause mortality and CRC specific mortality after adjusting for patient and tumour characteristics among people identified as early-stage and treated with surgery. ResultsOverall, 32,691 (73%) and 12,184 (27%) patients had a diagnosis of colon and rectal cancer respectively, of whom 55% and 53% were early-stage and treated with surgery. Five year overall survival (CRC specific survival) within this cohort was 72% (82%) and 76% (84%) for patients with colon and rectal cancer respectively. Cox proportional hazards models revealed significant variation in mortality by sex, area-based deprivation and geographic location. ConclusionsIn a Scottish population of patients with early-stage CRC treated with surgery, there was significant variation in risk of death, even after accounting for clinical factors and patient characteristics.

Pks-positive Escherichia coli in tumor tissue and surrounding normal mucosal tissue of colorectal cancer patients.

A significant association exists between the gut microbiome and colorectal carcinogenesis, as well as cancer progression. It has been reported that Escherichia coli (E. coli) containing polyketide synthetase (pks) island contribute to colorectal carcinogenesis by producing colibactin, a polyketide-peptide genotoxin. However, the functions of pks+ E. coli in initiation, proliferation, and metastasis of colorectal cancer (CRC) remain unclear. We investigated the clinical significance of pks+ E. coli to clarify its functions in CRC. This study included 413 patients with CRC. Pks+ E. coli of tumor tissue and normal mucosal tissue were quantified using droplet digital PCR. Pks+ E. coli was more abundant in Stages 0-I tumor tissue than in normal mucosal tissue or in Stages II-IV tumor tissue. High abundance of pks+ E. coli in tumor tissue was significantly associated with shallower tumor depth (hazard ratio [HR] = 5.0, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.3-11.3, p < 0.001) and absence of lymph node metastasis (HR = 3.0, 95% CI = 1.8-5.1, p < 0.001) in multivariable logistic analyses. Pks+ E. coli-low and -negative groups were significantly associated with shorter CRC-specific survival (HR = 6.4, 95% CI = 1.7-25.6, p = 0.005) and shorter relapse-free survival (HR = 3.1, 95% CI = 1.3-7.3, p = 0.01) compared to the pks+ E. coli-high group. Pks+ E. coli was abundant in Stages 0-I CRC and associated with CRC prognosis. These results suggest that pks+ E. coli might contribute to carcinogenesis of CRC but might not be associated with tumor progression.

Epidemiologic Factors in Relation to Colorectal Cancer Risk and Survival by Genotoxic Colibactin Mutational Signature.

The genotoxin colibactin causes a tumor single-base substitution (SBS) mutational signature, SBS88. It is unknown whether epidemiologic factors' association with colorectal cancer risk and survival differs by SBS88. Within the Genetic Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium and Colon Cancer Family Registry, we measured SBS88 in 4,308 microsatellite stable/microsatellite instability low tumors. Associations of epidemiologic factors with colorectal cancer risk by SBS88 were assessed using multinomial regression (N = 4,308 cases, 14,192 controls; cohort-only cases N = 1,911), and with colorectal cancer-specific survival using Cox proportional hazards regression (N = 3,465 cases). 392 (9%) tumors were SBS88 positive. Among all cases, the highest quartile of fruit intake was associated with lower risk of SBS88-positive colorectal cancer than SBS88-negative colorectal cancer [odds ratio (OR) = 0.53, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.37-0.76; OR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.66-0.85, respectively, Pheterogeneity = 0.047]. Among cohort studies, associations of body mass index (BMI), alcohol, and fruit intake with colorectal cancer risk differed by SBS88. BMI ≥30 kg/m2 was associated with worse colorectal cancer-specific survival among those SBS88-positive [hazard ratio (HR) = 3.40, 95% CI 1.47-7.84], but not among those SBS88-negative (HR = 0.97, 95% CI 0.78-1.21, Pheterogeneity = 0.066). Most epidemiologic factors did not differ by SBS88 for colorectal cancer risk or survival. Higher BMI may be associated with worse colorectal cancer-specific survival among those SBS88-positive; however, validation is needed in samples with whole-genome or whole-exome sequencing available. This study highlights the importance of identification of tumor phenotypes related to colorectal cancer and understanding potential heterogeneity for risk and survival.

Enrichment of Bacteroides fragilis and enterotoxigenic Bacteroides fragilis in CpG island methylator phenotype-high colorectal carcinoma

ObjectivesData support that enterotoxigenic Bacteroides fragilis (ETBF) harbouring the Bacteroides fragilis toxin (bft) gene may promote colorectal tumourigenesis through the serrated neoplasia pathway. We hypothesized that ETBF may be enriched in colorectal carcinoma subtypes with high-level CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP-high), BRAF mutation, and high-level microsatellite instability (MSI-high). MethodsQuantitative PCR assays were designed to quantify DNA amounts of Bacteroides fragilis, ETBF, and each bft gene isotype (bft-1, bft-2, or bft-3) in colorectal carcinomas in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study and Nurses' Health Study. We used multivariable-adjusted logistic regression models with the inverse probability weighting method. ResultsWe documented 4476 colorectal cancer cases, including 1232 cases with available bacterial data. High DNA amounts of Bacteroides fragilis and ETBF were positively associated with BRAF mutation (p ≤ 0.0003), CIMP-high (p ≤ 0.0002), and MSI-high (p < 0.0001 and p = 0.01, respectively). Multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (with 95% confidence interval) for high Bacteroides fragilis were 1.40 (1.06–1.85) for CIMP-high and 2.14 (1.65–2.77) for MSI-high, but 1.02 (0.78–1.35) for BRAF mutation. Multivariable-adjusted odds ratios for high ETBF were 2.00 (1.16–3.45) for CIMP-high and 2.86 (1.64–5.00) for BRAF mutation, but 1.09 (0.67–1.76) for MSI-high. Neither Bacteroides fragilis nor ETBF was associated with colorectal cancer-specific or overall survival. DiscussionThe tissue abundance of Bacteroides fragilis is associated with CIMP-high and MSI-high, whereas ETBF abundance is associated with CIMP-high and BRAF mutation in colorectal carcinoma. Our findings support the aetiological relevance of Bacteroides fragilis and ETBF in the serrated neoplasia pathway.

Variation in colorectal cancer treatment and outcomes in Scotland: real world evidence from national linked administrative health data.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the fourth most common type of cancer in the United Kingdom and the second leading cause of cancer death. Despite improvements in CRC survival over time, Scotland lags behind its UK and European counterparts. In this study, we carry out an exploratory analysis which aims to provide contemporary, population level evidence on CRC treatment and survival in Scotland. We conducted a retrospective population-based analysis of adults with incident CRC registered on the Scottish Cancer Registry (Scottish Morbidity Record 06 (SMR06)) between January 2006 and December 2018. The CRC cohort was linked to hospital inpatient (SMR01) and National Records of Scotland (NRS) deaths records allowing a description of their demographic, diagnostic and treatment characteristics. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to explore the demographic and clinical factors associated with all-cause mortality and CRC specific mortality after adjusting for patient and tumour characteristics among people identified as early-stage and treated with surgery. Overall, 32,691 (73%) and 12,184 (27%) patients had a diagnosis of colon and rectal cancer respectively, of whom 55% and 53% were early-stage and treated with surgery. Five year overall survival (CRC specific survival) within this cohort was 72% (82%) and 76% (84%) for patients with colon and rectal cancer respectively. Cox proportional hazards models revealed significant variation in mortality by sex, area-based deprivation and geographic location. In a Scottish population of patients with early-stage CRC treated with surgery, there was significant variation in risk of death, even after accounting for clinical factors and patient characteristics.

Revisiting the Prognostic Impact of Family History in Colorectal Cancer by Retrospective Propensity Score Matching.

Family history of colorectal cancer (CRC) is a known risk factor for CRC. However, its prognostic value in patients with CRC remains controversial. This study aimed to clarify the prognostic impact of a family history of CRC. We retrospectively reviewed the database from 1978 to 2018 and enrolled 3,655 consecutive patients with CRC. We investigated the clinicopathological factors of patients with CRC with and without a family history. After propensity score matching, we performed a survival analysis of patients with CRC with and without a family history. Patients with CRC with a family history of CRC had a young onset (63.2 and 65.9; p<0.001), were more likely to be female (54.3% and 49.7%; p=0.042), had less symptomatic disease (76.9% and 80.8%; p=0.008), were more likely to have right-sided colon cancer (27.5% and 26.1%), and had less distant metastases (11.3% and 14.9%; p=0.023) and multiple CRCs (10.2% and 7.8%) compared with those without a family history of CRC. Prior to propensity score matching, CRC-specific survival analysis showed that a family history of CRC was a good prognostic factor (p=0.022). After propensity score matching, survival curves overlapped between the two groups. Patients with CRC with a family history of CRC had specific clinicopathological features including younger onset, female sex, proximal colon location, fewer symptoms, smaller number of distant metastases, likelihood of multiple diseases, and earlier cancer stage. Family history of CRC in patients with CRC was not a prognostic factor.

Predicting Colorectal Cancer Survival Using Time-to-Event Machine Learning: Retrospective Cohort Study.

Machine learning (ML) methods have shown great potential in predicting colorectal cancer (CRC) survival. However, the ML models introduced thus far have mainly focused on binary outcomes and have not considered the time-to-event nature of this type of modeling. This study aims to evaluate the performance of ML approaches for modeling time-to-event survival data and develop transparent models for predicting CRC-specific survival. The data set used in this retrospective cohort study contains information on patients who were newly diagnosed with CRC between December 28, 2012, and December 27, 2019, at West China Hospital, Sichuan University. We assessed the performance of 6 representative ML models, including random survival forest (RSF), gradient boosting machine (GBM), DeepSurv, DeepHit, neural net-extended time-dependent Cox (or Cox-Time), and neural multitask logistic regression (N-MTLR) in predicting CRC-specific survival. Multiple imputation by chained equations method was applied to handle missing values in variables. Multivariable analysis and clinical experience were used to select significant features associated with CRC survival. Model performance was evaluated in stratified 5-fold cross-validation repeated 5 times by using the time-dependent concordance index, integrated Brier score, calibration curves, and decision curves. The SHapley Additive exPlanations method was applied to calculate feature importance. A total of 2157 patients with CRC were included in this study. Among the 6 time-to-event ML models, the DeepHit model exhibited the best discriminative ability (time-dependent concordance index 0.789, 95% CI 0.779-0.799) and the RSF model produced better-calibrated survival estimates (integrated Brier score 0.096, 95% CI 0.094-0.099), but these are not statistically significant. Additionally, the RSF, GBM, DeepSurv, Cox-Time, and N-MTLR models have comparable predictive accuracy to the Cox Proportional Hazards model in terms of discrimination and calibration. The calibration curves showed that all the ML models exhibited good 5-year survival calibration. The decision curves for CRC-specific survival at 5 years showed that all the ML models, especially RSF, had higher net benefits than default strategies of treating all or no patients at a range of clinically reasonable risk thresholds. The SHapley Additive exPlanations method revealed that R0 resection, tumor-node-metastasis staging, and the number of positive lymph nodes were important factors for 5-year CRC-specific survival. This study showed the potential of applying time-to-event ML predictive algorithms to help predict CRC-specific survival. The RSF, GBM, Cox-Time, and N-MTLR algorithms could provide nonparametric alternatives to the Cox Proportional Hazards model in estimating the survival probability of patients with CRC. The transparent time-to-event ML models help clinicians to more accurately predict the survival rate for these patients and improve patient outcomes by enabling personalized treatment plans that are informed by explainable ML models.

Management of malignant T1 colorectal cancer polyps: results from a 10-year prospective observational study.

The recurrence risk associated with residual malignant cells (bowel wall/regional nodes) following T1 colorectal cancer (CRC) polypectomy must be weighed against operative morbidity. Our aim was to describe the management and outcomes of a large prospective cohort of T1 CRCs. All T1 CRCs diagnosed between March 2007 and March 2017 at the Glasgow Royal Infirmary were included. Patients were grouped by polypectomy, rectal local excision and formal resection status. χ2 testing, multivariate binary logistic and Cox regression were performed. Of 236 patients, 90 (38.1%) underwent polypectomy only, six (2.6%) polypectomy and then rectal excision, 57 (24.2%) polypectomy and then resection, 14 (5.9%) rectal excision only and 69 (29.2%) primary resection. Polypectomy only correlated with male sex (P = 0.028), older age (P < 0.001), distal CRCs (P < 0.001) and pedunculated polyps (P < 0.001); primary resection with larger polyps (P < 0.001); polypectomy then resection with piecemeal excision (P = 0.002) and involved polypectomy margin (P < 0.001). Poor differentiation (OR 7.860, 95% CI 1.117-55.328; P = 0.038) independently predicted lymph node involvement. Submucosal venous invasion (hazard ratio [HR] 10.154, 95% CI 2.087-49.396; P = 0.004) and mucinous subtype (HR 7.779, 95% CI 1.566-38.625; P = 0.012) independently predicted recurrence. Submucosal venous invasion (HR 5.792, 95% CI 1.056-31.754; P = 0.043) predicted CRC-specific survival. Although 64.4% of polypectomy-only patients had margin involvement/other risk factors, none developed recurrence. Of 94 with polypectomy margin involvement, five (5.3%) had confirmed residual tumour. Overall, lymph node metastases (7.1%), recurrence (4.2%) and cancer-specific mortality (3.0%) were rare. Cancer-specific 5-year survival was high: polypectomy only (100%), polypectomy and then resection (98.2%), primary resection (100%). Surveillance may be safe for more T1 CRC polyp patients. Multidisciplinary team discussion and informed patient choice are critical.

Vitamin D Status, Cdx2 Genotype, and Colorectal Cancer Survival: Population-Based Patient Cohort.

According to recent evidence, the prognostic value of Vitamin D (VitD) status for colorectal cancer (CRC) patients might be confined to patients with the GG genotype of Cdx2, a functional polymorphism of the VitD receptor gene. We aimed to validate these findings in a cohort of CRC patients. Post-operative serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration was determined by mass spectrometry and Cdx2 genotyping was performed from blood or buccal swabs using standard methods. Joint associations of VitD status and Cdx2 with overall survival (OS), CRC-specific survival (CSS), recurrence-free survival (RFS), and disease-free survival (DFS) were assessed using Cox regression. For patients with GG genotype, adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for the associations of sufficient compared with deficient VitD were 0.63 (0.50-0.78), 0.68 (0.50-0.90), 0.66 (0.51-0.86), and 0.62 (0.50-0.77) for OS, CSS, RFS, and DFS, respectively. These associations were weaker and not statistically significant for the AA/AG genotype. Interaction between VitD status and genotype did not reach statistical significance. VitD deficiency is an independent predictor of poorer survival, particularly for the GG Cdx2 carriers, suggesting a potential role of VitD supplementation according to VitD status and genotype, which should be evaluated in randomised trials.

Associations between polymorphisms in leptin and leptin receptor genes and colorectal cancer survival.

Leptin (LEP) is an obesity-associated adipokine associated with tumor cell growth. We examined the relevance of genetic variants of LEP and leptin receptor (LEPR) to colorectal cancer (CRC) survival by using data from the Newfoundland Familial Colorectal Cancer Study. A total of 532 patients newly diagnosed with CRC between 1997 and 2003 were followed up until April 2010. Data on their demographics and lifestyles were collected via questionnaires. Genotyping of blood samples was performed with the Illumina Human Omni-Quad Bead chip. Multivariable Cox models were used to assess the relationships of 35 tag single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in LEP and LEPR with overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), and CRC-specific survival. At the gene level, LEP was associated with DFS (P = 0.017), and LEPR was associated with both DFS (P = 0.021) and CRC-specific survival (P = 0.013) in patients with CRC. In single-SNP analysis, LEP rs11763517, LEPR rs9436301, and LEPR rs7602 were associated with DFS after adjustment for multiple testing. The LEPR haplotypes G-C-T (rs7534511-rs9436301-rs1887285) and A-A-G (rs7602-rs970467-rs9436748) were associated with prolonged OS among patients with CRC overall (G-C-T: HR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.43-0.93; A-A-G: HR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.38-0.91) and those diagnosed with colon cancer (G-C-T: HR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.34-0.86; A-A-G: HR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.29-0.83). Similar results were observed for DFS. Moreover, significant interactions were found among LEPR rs7602 (A vs. G), LEPR rs1171278 (T vs. C), red meat intake, and BMI status: the associations between these variants and prolonged DFS were limited to patients with below-median red meat consumption and body mass index (BMI) < 25 kg/m2. Polymorphic variations in the LEP and LEPR genes were associated with survival of patients after CRC diagnosis. The LEP/LEPR-CRC survival association was modified by participants' red meat intake and BMI.