Covered Interest Parity Condition Research Articles

What is new about covered interest parity condition in the European Union? Evidence from fractal cross-correlation regressions

We analyse the covered interest parity (CIP) using two novel regression frameworks based on cross-correlation analysis (detrended cross-correlation analysis and detrending moving-average cross-correlation analysis), which allow for studying the relationships at different scales and work well under non-stationarity and heavy tails. CIP is a measure of capital mobility commonly used to analyse financial integration, which remains an interesting feature of study in the context of the European Union. The importance of this features is related to the fact that the adoption of a common currency is associated with some benefits for countries, but also involves some risks such as the loss of economic instruments to face possible asymmetric shocks. While studying the Eurozone members could explain some problems in the common currency, studying the non-Euro countries is important to analyse if they are fit to take the possible benefits. Our results point to the CIP verification mainly in the Central European countries while in the remaining countries, the verification of the parity is only residual.

Monetary policy and covered interest parity in the post GFC period: Evidence from the Australian dollar and the NZ dollar

After the global financial crisis (GFC), most major currencies had higher interest rates than the US dollar on forward contract because of increased demand for the US dollar as international liquidity. However, unlike the other major currencies, the Australian dollar and the NZ dollar had lower interest rates than the US dollar on forward contract in the post GFC period. The purpose of this paper is to explore why this happened through estimating the covered interest parity (CIP) condition. In the analysis, we focus on a unique feature of Australia and New Zealand where short-term interest rates remained significantly positive even after the GFC. The paper first constructs a theoretical model where increased liquidity risk causes deviations from the CIP condition. It then tests this theoretical implication by using daily data of six major currencies. We find that both money market risk measures and policy rates had significant effects on the CIP deviations. The result implies that unique monetary policy feature in Australia and New Zealand made deviations from the CIP condition distinct on the forward contract.

Regional Liquidity Risk and Covered Interest Parity During the Global Financial Crisis: Evidence from Tokyo, London, and New York

ABSTRACTDuring the global financial crisis, there were substantial deviations from covered interest parity (CIP) condition. In particular, in the post-Lehman period, the US dollar interest rate became very low on the forward market. However, the deviations from the CIP condition varied across markets. After presenting a simple model, the following analysis examines how the CIP condition between the Japanese yen and the US dollar was violated in Tokyo, London, and New York markets. We show that the CIP deviations became largest in the New York market soon after the Lehman shock but were largest in the Tokyo market in the rest of the turmoil period. The regressions suggest that market-specific credit risks and central banks’ liquidity provisions explained the difference across the markets. In particular, they indicate that larger dollar-specific risk and smaller yen-specific risk caused larger deviations in the Tokyo market.

Covered interest parity and arbitrage paradox in emerging markets: Evidence from the Korean market

While emerging forward exchange markets (EMs) have been rapidly developed, market efficiency has rarely been examined for EMs. To properly test the market efficiency for EMs, we set up a simple model to account for EM-specific realistic features. Based on the new model, we develop a modified covered interest parity (CIP) condition, which features multiple neutral bands associated with both transaction costs and differential borrowing costs. In addition, we apply the notion of ‘arbitrage paradox’ to test market efficiency. In particular, we focus not only on the violation event of the (modified) CIP condition but also on the persistence of arbitrage opportunities. We then apply this methodology to the Korean forward exchange market and provide empirical results for the Korean market, which can also be useful for analyzing other EMs.

Regional Liquidity Risk and Covered Interest Parity During the Global Financial Crisis: Evidence from Tokyo, London, and New York

During the global financial crisis, there were substantial deviations from the covered interest parity (CIP) condition. In particular, during the post Lehman period, the US dollar interest rate became very low on the forward market, as compared to the rate suggested by the CIP condition. However, the deviations from the CIP condition varied not only across currencies but also across markets. After presenting a simple model, the following analysis examines the CIP condition between the Japanese Yen and the US dollar and explores how it was violated in Tokyo, London, and New York markets. We show that the US dollar interest rate temporarily became lowest in the New York market soon after the Lehman shock but was lowest in the Tokyo market during the rest of the post Lehman turmoil. This implies that liquidity shortage of the US dollar during the rest of the post Lehman turmoil was most serious in Tokyo time when the New York market is closed. The regression results suggest that both credit and liquidity risks explain the difference across the markets. In particular, coordinated central bank liquidity provision was useful in reducing US dollar liquidity risk. However, we observe varieties of asymmetric effects across the markets.

Interpreting deviations from covered interest parity during the financial market turmoil of 2007–08

This paper investigates the spillover effects of money market turbulence in 2007–08 on the short-term covered interest parity (CIP) condition between the US dollar and the euro through the foreign exchange (FX) swap market. Sharp and persistent deviations from the CIP condition observed during the turmoil are found to be significantly associated with differences in the counterparty risk between European and US financial institutions. Furthermore, evidence is found that US dollar term funding auctions by the ECB, supported by US dollar swap lines with the Federal Reserve, alleviated the level of dislocations, as well as the instability, of the FX swap market.

Interpreting Deviations from Covered Interest Parity During the Financial Market Turmoil of 2007-08

This paper investigates the spillover effects of money market turbulence in 2007-08 on the short-term covered interest parity (CIP) condition between the US dollar and the euro through the foreign exchange (FX) swap market. Sharp and persistent deviations from the CIP condition observed during the turmoil are found to be significantly associated with differences in the counterparty risk between European and US financial institutions. Furthermore, evidence is found that dollar term funding auctions by the ECB, supported by dollar swap lines with the Federal Reserve, have stabilized the FX swap market by lowering the volatility of deviations from CIP.

Interpreting Deviations from Covered Interest Parity during the Financial Market Turmoil of 2007-08

This paper investigates the spillover effects of money market turbulence in 2007-08 on the short-term covered interest parity (CIP) condition between the US dollar and the euro through the foreign exchange (FX) swap market. Sharp and persistent deviations from the CIP condition observed during the turmoil are found to be significantly associated with differences in the counterparty risk between European and US financial institutions. Furthermore, evidence is found that dollar term funding auctions by the ECB, supported by dollar swap lines with the Federal Reserve, have stabilized the FX swap market by lowering the volatility of deviations from CIP.

Nonlinear dynamics and covered interest rate parity

This paper examines the dynamics of deviations from covered interest parity using daily data on the UK/US spot, forward exchange rates and interest rates over the period January 1974 to September 1993. Like other studies we find a substantial number of instances during the sample in which the covered interest parity condition exceeds the transaction costs band, implying arbitrage profit opportunities. While most of these implied profit opportunities are relatively small, there is also evidence of some very large deviations from covered interest parity in the sample. In order to examine the persistence of these deviations, we estimated a threshold autoregression in which the dynamics behavior of deviations from covered interest parity is different outside the transaction costs band than inside them. We find that while the impulse response functions when inside the transaction costs band are nearly symmetric, those for the outside the bands are asymmetric-suggesting less persistence outside of the transaction costs band than inside the band.

Nonlinear dynamics and covered interest rate parity

This paper examines the dynamics of deviations from covered interest parity using daily data on the UK/US spot, forward exchange rates and interest rates over the period January 1974 to September 1993. Like other studies we find a substantial number of instances during the sample in which the covered interest parity condition exceeds the transaction costs band, implying arbitrage profit opportunities. While most of these implied profit opportunities are relatively small, there is also evidence of some very large deviations from covered interest parity in the sample. In order to examine the persistence of these deviations, we estimated a threshold autoregression in which the dynamics behavior of deviations from covered interest parity is different outside the transaction costs band than inside them. We find that while the impulse response functions when inside the transaction costs band are nearly symmetric, those for the outside the bands are asymmetric-suggesting less persistence outside of the transaction costs band than inside the band.

"Swap" Covered Interest Parity in Long-Date Capital Markets

Using the currency swap as the forward-exchange risk hedge, the covered interest parity condition in the long-date capital markets is evaluated. Of interest is the extent to which deviations from parity can be attributed to transactions costs. The empirical conclusions presented in the paper suggest that, although (on average) transactions costs account for deviations from parity, net deviations (in excess of transactions costs) are neither rare nor short-lived. Yet an analysis of the variance structure of covered interest parity reveals that these profit opportunities diminish over time and eventually disappear. Copyright 1996 by MIT Press.

A non-parametric analysis of covered interest parity in long-date capital markets

The financially innovative currency swap has elevated the international mobility of long-term assets. Of interest is whether the covered interest parity condition now holds in these markets, with the currency swap as the forward-exchange risk hedge. The empirical conclusions presented in the paper suggest that deviations from covered interest parity (in excess of transactions costs) are not rare. Yet, while profit opportunities are not always short-lived, an analysis of the deviations in excess of transactions costs reveals that they diminish over time, and eventually disappear. (JEL F32).

Covered Interest Parity: A High-Frequency, High-Quality Data Study

Profitable deviations from covered interest parity (CIP) represent riskless arbitrage opportunities and so indicate market ineffic iency. Previous empirical work on CIP uses noncontemporaneously sampl ed data and reports mixed results. This paper uses high-frequency (te n-minute), high-quality data, gathered personally by the author in th e London foreign-exchange market, to test the CIP condition. The resu lts overwhelmingly support the market-efficiency hypothesis. Copyright 1987 by The Review of Economic Studies Limited.

The Interest Rate Parity Theorem: A Reinterpretation

The Interest Rate Parity Theorem: A Reinterpretation