Malaria Intervention Coverage Research Articles

Epidemiological behaviour and interventions of malaria in Niger, 2010–2019: a time-series analysis of national surveillance data

BackgroundMalaria remains a significant public health concern in Niger, with the number of cases increasing from 592,334 in 2000 to 3,138,696 in 2010. In response, a concerted campaign against the disease has been initiated. However, the implementation of these malaria interventions and their association with epidemiological behaviour remains unclear.MethodsA time-series study was conducted in Niger from 2010 to 2019. Multiple data sources concerning malaria were integrated, encompassing national surveillance data, Statistic Yearbook, targeted malaria control interventions, and meteorological data. Incidence rate, mortality rate, and case fatality ratio (CFR) by different regions and age groups were analysed. Joinpoint regression models were used to estimate annual changes in malaria. The changes in coverage of malaria interventions were evaluated.ResultsBetween 2010 to 2019, the incidence rate of malaria decreased from 249.43 to 187.00 cases per 1,000 population in Niger. Niamey had a high annual mean incidence rate and the lowest CFR, while Agadez was on the contrary. Joinpoint regression analysis revealed a declining trend in malaria incidence for all age groups except the 10–24 years group, and the mortality rate and the CFR initially decreased followed by an increase in all age groups. Niger has implemented a series of malaria interventions, with the major ones being scaled up to larger populations during the study period.ConclusionsThe scale-up of multi-interventions in Niger has significantly reduced malaria incidence, but the rise in mortality rate and CFR addresses the challenges in malaria control and elimination. Malaria endemic countries should enhance surveillance of malaria cases and drug resistance in Plasmodium, improve diagnosis and treatment, expand the population coverage of insecticide-treated bed nets and seasonal malaria chemoprevention, and strengthen the management of severe malaria cases.

BOHEMIA a cluster randomized trial to assess the impact of an endectocide-based one health approach to malaria in Mozambique: baseline demographics and key malaria indicators

BackgroundMany geographical areas of sub-Saharan Africa, especially in rural settings, lack complete and up-to-date demographic data, posing a challenge for implementation and evaluation of public health interventions and carrying out large-scale health research. A demographic survey was completed in Mopeia district, located in the Zambezia province in Mozambique, to inform the Broad One Health Endectocide-based Malaria Intervention in Africa (BOHEMIA) cluster randomized clinical trial, which tested ivermectin mass drug administration to humans and/or livestock as a potential novel strategy to decrease malaria transmission.MethodsThe demographic survey was a prospective descriptive study, which collected data of all the households in the district that accepted to participate. Households were mapped through geolocation and identified with a unique identification number. Basic demographic data of the household members was collected and each person received a permanent identification number for the study.Results25,550 households were mapped and underwent the demographic survey, and 131,818 individuals were registered in the district. The average household size was 5 members and 76.9% of households identified a male household head. Housing conditions are often substandard with low access to improved water systems and electricity. The reported coverage of malaria interventions was 71.1% for indoor residual spraying and 54.1% for universal coverage of long-lasting insecticidal nets. The median age of the population was 15 years old. There were 910 deaths in the previous 12 months reported, and 43.9% were of children less than 5 years of age.ConclusionsThe study showed that the district had good coverage of vector control tools against malaria but sub-optimal living conditions and poor access to basic services. The majority of households are led by males and Mopeia Sede/Cuacua is the most populated locality in the district. The population of Mopeia is young (< 15 years) and there is a high childhood mortality. The results of this survey were crucial as they provided the household and population profiles and allowed the design and implementation of the cluster randomized clinical trial.Trial registration NCT04966702.

Malaria Burden Stratification in Malawi- A report of a consultative workshop to inform the 2023-2030 Malawi Malaria Strategic Plan.

Background: Malawi's National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP) is developing a new strategic plan for 2023-2030 to combat malaria and recognizes that a blanket approach to malaria interventions is no longer feasible. To inform this new strategy, the NMCP set up a task force comprising 18 members from various sectors, which convened a meeting to stratify the malaria burden in Malawi and recommend interventions for each stratum. Methods: The burden stratification workshop took place from November 29 to December 2, 2022, in Blantyre, Malawi, and collated essential data on malaria burden indicators, such as incidence, prevalence, and mortality. Workshop participants reviewed the malaria burden and intervention coverage data to describe the current status and identified the districts as a appropriate administrative level for stratification and action. Two scenarios were developed for the stratification, based on composites of three variables. Scenario 1 included incidence, prevalence, and under-five all-cause mortality, while Scenario 2 included total malaria cases, prevalence, and under-five all-cause mortality counts. The task force developed four burden strata (highest, high, moderate, and low) for each scenario, resulting in a final list of districts assigned to each stratum. Results: The task force concluded with 10 districts in the highest-burden stratum (Nkhotakota, Salima, Mchinji, Dowa, Ntchisi, Mwanza, Likoma, Lilongwe, Kasungu and Mangochi) 11 districts in the high burden stratum (Chitipa, Rumphi, Nkhata Bay, Dedza, Ntcheu, Neno, Thyolo, Nsanje, Zomba, Mzimba and Mulanje) and seven districts in the moderate burden stratum (Karonga, Chikwawa, Balaka, Machinga, Phalombe, Blantyre, and Chiradzulu). There were no districts in the low-burden stratum. Conclusion: The next steps for the NMCP are to review context-specific issues driving malaria transmission and recommend interventions for each stratum. Overall, this burden stratification workshop provides a critical foundation for developing a successful malaria strategic plan for Malawi.

Using antenatal care as a platform for malaria surveillance data collection: study protocol

BackgroundWhile many malaria-endemic countries have health management information systems that can measure and report malaria trends in a timely manner, these routine systems have limitations. Periodic community cross-sectional household surveys are used to estimate malaria prevalence and intervention coverage but lack geographic granularity and are resource intensive. Incorporating malaria testing for all women at their first antenatal care (ANC) visit (i.e., ANC1) could provide a more timely and granular source of data for monitoring trends in malaria burden and intervention coverage. This article describes a protocol designed to assess if ANC-based surveillance could be a pragmatic tool to monitor malaria.MethodsThis is an observational, cross-sectional study conducted in Benin, Burkina Faso, Mozambique, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Zambia. Pregnant women attending ANC1 in selected health facilities will be tested for malaria infection by rapid diagnostic test and administered a brief questionnaire to capture key indicators of malaria control intervention coverage and care-seeking behaviour. In each location, contemporaneous cross-sectional household surveys will be leveraged to assess correlations between estimates obtained using each method, and the use of ANC data as a tool to track trends in malaria burden and intervention coverage will be validated.ResultsThis study will assess malaria prevalence at ANC1 aggregated at health facility and district levels, and by gravidity relative to current pregnancy (i.e., gravida 1, gravida 2, and gravida 3 +). ANC1 malaria prevalence will be presented as monthly trends. Additionally, correlation between ANC1 and household survey–derived estimates of malaria prevalence, bed net ownership and use, and care-seeking will be assessed.ConclusionANC1-based surveillance has the potential to provide a cost-effective, localized measure of malaria prevalence that is representative of the general population and useful for tracking monthly changes in parasite prevalence, as well as providing population-representative estimates of intervention coverage and care-seeking behavior. This study will evaluate the representativeness of these measures and collect information on operational feasibility, usefulness for programmatic decision-making, and potential for scale-up of malaria ANC1 surveillance.

Routine Healthcare Facility- and Antenatal Care-based Malaria Surveillance: Challenges and Opportunities.

Most monitoring and evaluation tools for measuring malaria burden, intervention coverage, and impact of interventions use periodic nationally representative cross-sectional household surveys. These provide advantages in terms of selecting a large, unbiased, population-based sample; however, they are infrequently conducted, are resource-intensive, and do not provide longitudinal data with sufficient granularity. Given the heterogeneity of malaria transmission within most endemic countries, systems with the capacity to provide more granular and frequent data would be more actionable by national malaria control programs and local implementing partners. There is increasing interest in using routine health facility data, usually from outpatient department visits, for monitoring malaria burden. Data from pregnant women attending antenatal care (ANC) could minimize bias related to fever care-seeking among outpatient department visits and provide more granular parasite prevalence data. Most pregnant women attend ANC at least once and are thus highly representative of the overall pregnant population. A growing body of evidence suggests that malaria parasitemia in pregnant women is correlated with parasitemia in children aged <5 years in moderate to high transmission areas, allowing for monitoring parasitemia in real time. Additional data are needed to assess whether pregnant women are sufficiently representative of the overall population to yield valid malaria prevalence and intervention coverage estimates. Although use of routinely collected ANC data faces many of the same challenges experienced by other routinely collected health facility data, the opportunity to improve parasite prevalence monitoring and the associated health benefits to mothers and infants of early detection of parasitemia make these efforts valuable.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of malaria in Zanzibar, 2015–2020

BackgroundDespite high coverage of malaria interventions, malaria elimination in Zanzibar remains elusive, with the annual number of cases increasing gradually over the last 3 years.ObjectiveThe aims of the study were...

Quality and Integrated Service Delivery: A Cross-Sectional Study of the Effects of Malaria and Antenatal Service Quality on Malaria Intervention Use in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Using regionally linked facility and household surveys, we measured the quality of integrated antenatal care and malaria in pregnancy services in Kenya, Namibia, Senegal, and Tanzania. We examined country heterogeneities for the association of integrated antenatal and malaria service quality scores with insecticide-treated bed net (ITN) use in pregnant women and children under-five and intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy (IPTp-2) uptake. Malaria in pregnancy service quality was low overall. Our findings suggest modest, positive associations between malaria in pregnancy quality and ITN use and IPTp-2 uptake across pooled models and for most studied countries, with evidence of heterogeneity in the strength of associations and relevant confounding factors. Antenatal care quality generally was not associated with the study outcomes, although a positive interaction with malaria in pregnancy quality was present for pooled ITN use models. The improved quality of malaria services delivered during formal antenatal care can help address low coverage and usage rates of preventive malaria interventions in pregnancy and childhood. Study findings may be used to target quality improvement efforts at the sub-national level. Study methods may be adapted to identify low-performing facilities for intervention and adaption to other areas of care, such as HIV/AIDS, child immunizations, and postnatal care.

Analysis of the potential for a malaria vaccine to reduce gaps in malaria intervention coverage

BackgroundThe RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine is currently being evaluated in a cluster-randomized pilot implementation programme in three African countries. This study seeks to identify whether vaccination could reach additional children who are at risk from malaria but do not currently have access to, or use, core malaria interventions.MethodsUsing data from household surveys, the overlap between malaria intervention coverage and childhood vaccination (diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis dose 3, DTP3) uptake in 20 African countries with at least one first administrative level unit with Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence greater than 10% was calculated. Multilevel logistic regression was used to explore patterns of overlap by demographic and socioeconomic variables. The public health impact of delivering RTS,S/AS01 to those children who do not use an insecticide-treated net (ITN), but who received the DTP3 vaccine, was also estimated.ResultsUptake of DTP3 was higher than malaria intervention coverage in most countries. Overall, 34% of children did not use ITNs and received DTP3, while 35% of children used ITNs and received DTP3, although this breakdown varied by country. It was estimated that there are 33 million children in these 20 countries who do not use an ITN. Of these, 23 million (70%) received the DTP3 vaccine. Vaccinating those 23 million children who receive DTP3 but do not use an ITN could avert up to an estimated 9.7 million (range 8.5–10.8 million) clinical malaria cases each year, assuming all children who receive DTP3 are administered all four RTS,S doses. An additional 10.8 million (9.5–12.0 million) cases could be averted by vaccinating those 24 million children who receive the DTP3 vaccine and use an ITN. Children who had access to or used an ITN were 9–13% more likely to reside in rural areas compared to those who had neither intervention regardless of vaccination status. Mothers’ education status was a strong predictor of intervention uptake and was positively associated with use of ITNs and vaccination uptake and negatively associated with having access to an ITN but not using it. Wealth was also a strong predictor of intervention coverage.ConclusionsChildhood vaccination to prevent malaria has the potential to reduce inequity in access to existing malaria interventions and could substantially reduce the childhood malaria burden in sub-Saharan Africa, even in regions with lower existing DTP3 coverage.

Potential impact of 5 years of ivermectin mass drug administration on malaria outcomes in high burden countries

IntroductionThe global progress against malaria has slowed significantly since 2017. As the current malaria control tools seem insufficient to get the trend back on track, several clinical trials are investigating...

Effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on malaria intervention coverage in Nigeria: Analysis of the Premise Malaria COVID-19 Health Services Disruption Survey 2020

1. Lake MA. What we know so far: COVID-19 current clinical knowledge and research. Clin Med (Lond). 2020;20(2):124-127. doi:10.7861/clinmed.2019-coron CrossRef Google Scholar

Associating the scale-up of insecticide-treated nets and use with the decline in all-cause child mortality in the Democratic Republic of Congo from 2005 to 2014

BackgroundTo reduce the malaria burden and improve the socioeconomic status of its citizens, the Democratic Republic of Congo scaled up key malaria control interventions, especially insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), between 2005 and 2014. Since then, the effects of these interventions on malaria mortality and morbidity have not been assessed. This study aimed to measure the impact of the National Malaria Control Programme’s efforts and to inform future control strategies.MethodsThe authors used data from the Demographic and Health Surveys 2007 and 2013–2014 to assess trends in all-cause childhood mortality (ACCM) against trends in coverage of malaria interventions at national and subnational levels. The authors used the plausibility argument to assess the impact of the malaria control interventions and used Kaplan–Meier survival probability and Cox proportional hazard models to examine the effect of ITN ownership on child survival. Contextual factor trends affecting child survival were also considered.ResultsCountrywide, household ownership of at least one ITN increased, from 9% in 2007 to 70% in 2013–2014. All provinces experienced similar increases, with some greater than the national level. ITN use increased between 2007 and 2013–2014 among children under five (6% to 55%). Severe anaemia (haemoglobin concentration < 8 g/dl) prevalence among children aged 6–59 months significantly decreased, from 11% (95% confidence interval [CI] 9–13%) in 2007 to 6% (95% CI 5–7%) in 2013–2014. During the same period, ACCM declined, from 148 (95% CI 132–163) to 104 (95% CI 97–112) deaths per 1000 live births. The decline in ACCM was greater among children aged 6–23 months (relative reduction of 36%), compared to children aged 24–59 months (relative reduction of 12%). Cox regression indicated that household ownership of at least one ITN reduced the risk of mortality by 24% among children under five (risk ratio = 0.76, 95% CI 0.64–0.90). Contextual factor analysis revealed marginal improvements in socioeconomic indicators and other health interventions.ConclusionsGiven the patterns of the coverage of malaria control interventions, patterns in ACCM by province, and marginal improvements in contextual factors, the authors conclude that the malaria control interventions have plausibly contributed to the decrease in ACCM in the Democratic Republic of Congo from 2005 to 2014.

Navigating the COVID-19 Crisis to Sustain Community-Based Malaria Interventions in Cambodia.

Cambodia has made impressive progress in reducing malaria trends and, in 2018, reported no malaria-related deaths for the first time. However, the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic presents a potential challenge to the country's goal for malaria elimination by 2025. The path toward malaria elimination depends on sustained interventions to prevent rapid resurgence, which can quickly set back any gains achieved.Malaria Consortium supported mobile malaria workers (MMWs) to engage with target communities to build acceptance, trust, and resilience. At the start of the pandemic, Malaria Consortium conducted a COVID-19 risk assessment and quickly developed and implemented a mitigation plan to ensure MMWs were able to continue providing malaria services without putting themselves or their patients at risk. Changes in malaria intervention coverage and community uptake have been monitored to gauge the indirect effects of COVID-19. Comparisons have been made between output indicators reported in 2020 and from the same month-period of the previous year.In general, malaria service intervention coverage and utilization rates did not decline in 2020. Rather, the reported figures show there was a substantial increase in service utilization. Preliminary internal reviews and community meetings show that despite a heightened public risk perception toward COVID-19, malaria testing motivation has been well sustained throughout the pandemic. This may be attributable to proactive program planning and data monitoring and active engagement with the communities and the national authorities to circumvent the indirect effect of COVID-19 on intervention coverage in Cambodia during the pandemic.

Estimating malaria chemoprevention and vector control coverage using program and campaign data: A scoping review of current practices and opportunities.

BackgroundAccurate estimation of intervention coverage is a vital component of malaria program monitoring and evaluation, both for process evaluation (how well program targets are achieved), and impact evaluation (whether intervention coverage had an impact on malaria burden). There is growing interest in maximizing the utility of program data to generate interim estimates of intervention coverage in the periods between large-scale cross-sectional surveys (the gold standard). As such, this study aimed to identify relevant concepts and themes that may guide future optimization of intervention coverage estimation using routinely collected data, or data collected during and following intervention campaigns, with a particular focus on strategies to define the denominator.MethodsWe conducted a scoping review of current practices to estimate malaria intervention coverage for insecticide-treated nets (ITNs); indoor residual spray (IRS); intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy (IPTp); mass drug administration (MDA); and seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) interventions; case management was excluded. Multiple databases were searched for relevant articles published from January 1, 2015 to June 1, 2018. Additionally, we identified and included other guidance relevant to estimating population denominators, with a focus on innovative techniques.ResultsWhile program data have the potential to provide intervention coverage data, there are still substantial challenges in selecting appropriate denominators. The review identified a lack of consistency in how coverage was defined and reported for each intervention type, with denominator estimation methods not clearly or consistently reported, and denominator estimates rarely triangulated with other data sources to present the feasible range of denominator values and consequently the range of likely coverage estimates.ConclusionsThough household survey-based estimates of intervention coverage remain the gold standard, efforts should be made to further standardize practices for generating interim measurements of intervention coverage from program data, and for estimating and reporting population denominators. This includes fully describing any projections or adjustments made to existing census or population data, exploring opportunities to validate available data by comparing with other sources, and explaining how the denominator has been restricted (or not) to reflect exclusion criteria.

Malaria epidemiology and stratification of incidence in the malaria elimination setting\xa0in Harari Region, Eastern Ethiopia

BackgroundEthiopia has shown notable progress in reducing the burden of malaria over the past two decades. Because of this progress, the country has shifted efforts from control to elimination of malaria. This study was conducted to analyse the malaria epidemiology and stratification of incidence in the malaria elimination setting in eastern Ethiopia.MethodsA retrospective study was conducted to analyse the epidemiology of malaria by reviewing the district health office data from 2013 to 2019 in Harari Region. In addition, three years of sub-district level malaria data were used to stratify the malaria transmission intensity. Malaria interventions (Long-lasting insecticidal nets [LLIN] and indoor residual spraying [IRS]) employed were reviewed to analyse the intervention coverage at the Regional level. Descriptive statistics were used to show the malaria transmission in terms of years, season and species of the malaria parasite. Incidence rate per 1000 population and death rate per 1 000 000 population at risk were computed using the total population of each year.ResultsIn the Harari Region, malaria incidence showed a more pronounced declining trend from 2017 to 2019. Plasmodium falciparum, P. vivax and mixed infections accounted for 69.2%, 30.6% and 0.2% of the cases, respectively. There was an increment in malaria intervention coverage and improved malaria diagnosis. In the year 2019 the coverage of LLIN and IRS in the Region were 93.4% and 85.1% respectively. The annual malaria incidence rate dropped from 42.9 cases per 1000 population in 2013 to 6.7 cases per 1000 population in 2019. Malaria-related deaths decreased from 4.7 deaths per 1 000 000 people annually in 2013 to zero, and there have been no deaths reported since 2015. The malaria risk appears to be heterogeneous and varies between districts. A higher number of malaria cases were recorded in Erer and Jenella districts, which constitute 62% of the cases in the Region. According to the sub-district level malaria stratification, there was shrinkage in the malaria transmission map and about 70% of the sub-districts have achieved elimination targets.ConclusionsIn the Harari Region, malaria morbidity and mortality have been significantly declined. Thus, if this achievement is sustained and scaling-up of the existing malaria prevention and control strategies by focusing on those populations living in the higher malaria transmission districts and sub-districts, planning of malaria elimination from the study area might be feasible.

Indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on malaria intervention coverage, morbidity, and mortality in Africa: a geospatial modelling analysis

SummaryBackgroundSubstantial progress has been made in reducing the burden of malaria in Africa since 2000, but those gains could be jeopardised if the COVID-19 pandemic affects the availability of key malaria control interventions. The aim of this study was to evaluate plausible effects on malaria incidence and mortality under different levels of disruption to malaria control.MethodsUsing an established set of spatiotemporal Bayesian geostatistical models, we generated geospatial estimates across malaria-endemic African countries of the clinical case incidence and mortality of malaria, incorporating an updated database of parasite rate surveys, insecticide-treated net (ITN) coverage, and effective treatment rates. We established a baseline estimate for the anticipated malaria burden in Africa in the absence of COVID-19-related disruptions, and repeated the analysis for nine hypothetical scenarios in which effective treatment with an antimalarial drug and distribution of ITNs (both through routine channels and mass campaigns) were reduced to varying extents.FindingsWe estimated 215·2 (95% uncertainty interval 143·7–311·6) million cases and 386·4 (307·8–497·8) thousand deaths across malaria-endemic African countries in 2020 in our baseline scenario of undisrupted intervention coverage. With greater reductions in access to effective antimalarial drug treatment, our model predicted increasing numbers of cases and deaths: 224·1 (148·7–326·8) million cases and 487·9 (385·3–634·6) thousand deaths with a 25% reduction in antimalarial drug coverage; 233·1 (153·7–342·5) million cases and 597·4 (468·0–784·4) thousand deaths with a 50% reduction; and 242·3 (158·7–358·8) million cases and 715·2 (556·4–947·9) thousand deaths with a 75% reduction. Halting planned 2020 ITN mass distribution campaigns and reducing routine ITN distributions by 25%–75% also increased malaria burden to a total of 230·5 (151·6–343·3) million cases and 411·7 (322·8–545·5) thousand deaths with a 25% reduction; 232·8 (152·3–345·9) million cases and 415·5 (324·3–549·4) thousand deaths with a 50% reduction; and 234·0 (152·9–348·4) million cases and 417·6 (325·5–553·1) thousand deaths with a 75% reduction. When ITN coverage and antimalarial drug coverage were synchronously reduced, malaria burden increased to 240·5 (156·5–358·2) million cases and 520·9 (404·1–691·9) thousand deaths with a 25% reduction; 251·0 (162·2–377·0) million cases and 640·2 (492·0–856·7) thousand deaths with a 50% reduction; and 261·6 (167·7–396·8) million cases and 768·6 (586·1–1038·7) thousand deaths with a 75% reduction.InterpretationUnder pessimistic scenarios, COVID-19-related disruption to malaria control in Africa could almost double malaria mortality in 2020, and potentially lead to even greater increases in subsequent years. To avoid a reversal of two decades of progress against malaria, averting this public health disaster must remain an integrated priority alongside the response to COVID-19.FundingBill and Melinda Gates Foundation; Channel 7 Telethon Trust, Western Australia.

COVID-19 in malaria-endemic regions: potential consequences for malaria intervention coverage, morbidity, and mortality

COVID-19 has had a massive impact on the populations and economies of the world. As of Sept 9, 2020, the virus has infected more than 27 million people in 216 countries and territories worldwide, and the number of deaths is approaching a million.1 Although the spread of COVID-19 to Africa has been slow and its direct impact in Africa is below the level seen in other continents, the potential effects of COVID-19 on strategies and methods to combat other diseases such as malaria—which pose significant burdens on substantial proportions of the world and the African population, and especially children—are a cause for great concern.

Coverage of Malaria Interventions During Antenatal Care in Mali

Malaria during pregnancy remains a major public health problem in endemic areas of the African region where approximately 25-30 million of pregnant women are at risk of Plasmodium falciparum infection and its adverse effects during pregnancy...

Prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum and Non-falciparum Infections by Photo-Induced Electron Transfer-PCR in a Longitudinal Cohort of Individuals Enrolled in a Mass Drug Administration Trial in Southern Province, Zambia.

.Malaria burden in Zambia has significantly declined over the last decade because of improved coverage of several key malaria interventions (e.g., vector control, case management, bed net distributions, and enhanced surveillance/responses). Campaign-based mass drug administration (MDA) and focal MDA (fMDA) were assessed in a trial in Southern Province, Zambia, to identify its utility in elimination efforts. As part of the study, a longitudinal cohort was visited and tested (by PCR targeting the 18s rRNA and a Plasmodium falciparum–specific rapid diagnostic test [RDT] from SD Bioline) every month for the trial duration (18 months). Overall, there was high concordance (> 97%) between the PCR and RDT results, using the PCR as the gold standard. The RDTs had high specificity and negative predictive values (98.5% and 98.6%, respectively) but low sensitivity (53.0%) and a low positive predictive value (53.8%). There was evidence for persistent antigenemia affecting the low specificity of the RDT, while false-negative RDTs were associated with a lower parasite density than true positive RDTs. Plasmodium falciparum was the dominant species identified, with 98.3% of all positive samples containing P. falciparum. Of these, 97.5% were mono-infections and 0.8% coinfections with one other species. Plasmodium malariae was found in 1.4% of all positive samples (50% mono-infections and 50% coinfections with P. falciparum), whereas Plasmodium ovale was found in 1.1% of all positive samples (90% mono-infections and 10% coinfections with P. falciparum). Although MDA/fMDA appeared to reduce P. malariae prevalence, P. ovale prevalence appeared unchanged.

Evaluating malaria programmes in moderate- and low-transmission settings: practical ways to generate robust evidence

BackgroundMany countries have made substantial progress in scaling-up and sustaining malaria intervention coverage, leading to more focalized and heterogeneous transmission in many settings. Evaluation provides valuable information for programmes to understand if interventions have been implemented as planned and with quality, if the programme had the intended impact on malaria burden, and to guide programmatic decision-making. Low-, moderate-, and heterogeneous-transmission settings present unique evaluation challenges because of dynamic and targeted intervention strategies. This paper provides illustration of evaluation approaches and methodologies for these transmission settings, and suggests how to answer evaluation questions specific to the local context.MethodsThe Roll Back Malaria Monitoring and Evaluation Reference Group formed a task force in October 2017 to lead development of this framework. The task force includes representatives from National Malaria Programmes, funding agencies, and malaria research and implementing partners. The framework builds on existing guidance for process and outcome evaluations and impact evaluations specifically in high transmission settings.ResultsThe theory of change describes how evaluation questions asked by national malaria programmes in different contexts influence evaluation design. The transmission setting, existing stratification, and data quality and availability are also key considerations. The framework is intended for adaption by countries to their local context, and use for evaluation at sub-national level. Confirmed malaria incidence is recommended as the primary impact indicator due to its sensitivity to detect changes in low-transmission settings. It is expected that process evaluations provide sufficient evidence for programme monitoring and improvement, while impact evaluations are needed following adoption of new mixes of interventions, operational strategies, tools or policies, particularly in contexts of changing malaria epidemiology. Impact evaluations in low-, moderate-, or heterogeneous-transmission settings will likely use plausibility designs, and methods highlighted by the framework include interrupted time series, district-level dose–response analyses, and constructed control methods. Triangulating multiple data sources and analyses is important to strengthen the plausibility argument.ConclusionsThis framework provides a structure to assist national malaria programmes and partners to design evaluations in low-, moderate- or heterogeneous-transmission settings. Emphasizing a continuous cycle along the causal pathway linking process evaluation to impact evaluation and then programmatic decision-making, the framework provides practical guidance in evaluation design, analysis, and interpretation to ensure that the evaluation meets national malaria programme priority questions and guides decision-making at national and sub-national levels.

En-route to the \u2018elimination\u2019 of genotypic chloroquine resistance in Western and Southern Zambia, 14\xa0years after chloroquine withdrawal

BackgroundAnti-malarial resistance is, and continues to be a significant challenge in the fight against malaria and a threat to achieving malaria elimination. In Zambia, chloroquine (CQ), a safe, affordable and well-tolerated drug, was removed from use in 2003 due to high levels of resistance evidenced with treatment failure. This study sought to investigate the prevalence of chloroquine resistance markers in Southern and Western Provinces of Zambia 14 years after the withdrawal of CQ.MethodsData from a cross-sectional, all-age household survey, conducted during the peak malaria transmission season (April–May 2017) was analysed. During the all-age survey, socio-demographic information and coverage of malaria interventions were collected. Consenting individuals were tested for malaria with a rapid diagnostic test and a spot of blood collected on filter paper to create a dried blood spot (DBS). Photo-induced electronic transfer–polymerase chain reaction (PET–PCR) was used to analyse the DBS for the presence of all four malaria species. Plasmodium falciparum positive samples were analysed by high resolution melt (HRM) PCR to detect the presence of genotypic markers of drug resistance in the P. falciparum chloroquine resistance transporter (Pfcrt) and P. falciparum multi-drug resistance (Pfmdr) genes.ResultsA total of 181 P. falciparum positive samples were examined for pfcrt K76T and MDR N86. Of the 181 samples 155 successfully amplified for Pfcrt and 145 for Pfmdr N86. The overall prevalence of CQ drug-resistant parasites was 1.9% (3/155), with no significant difference between the two provinces. No N86Y/F mutations in the Pfmdr gene were observed in any of the sample.ConclusionThis study reveals the return of CQ sensitive parasites in Southern and Western Provinces of Zambia 14 years after its withdrawal. Surveillance of molecular resistant markers for anti-malarials should be included in the Malaria Elimination Programme so that resistance is monitored country wide.