Coupled Carbon Climate Model Research Articles

Neglecting plant–microbe symbioses leads to underestimation of modeled climate impacts

Abstract. The extent to which terrestrial ecosystems slow climate change by sequestering carbon hinges in part on nutrient limitation. We used a coupled carbon–climate model that accounts for the carbon cost to plants of supporting nitrogen-acquiring microbial symbionts to explore how nitrogen limitation affects global climate. To do this, we first calculated the reduction in net primary production due to the carbon cost of nitrogen acquisition. We then used a climate model to estimate the impacts of the resulting increase in atmospheric CO2 on temperature and precipitation regimes. The carbon costs of supporting symbiotic nitrogen uptake reduced net primary production by 8.1 Pg C yr−1, with the largest absolute effects occurring in tropical forest biomes and the largest relative changes occurring in boreal and alpine biomes. Globally, our model predicted relatively small changes in climate due to the carbon cost of nitrogen acquisition with temperature increasing by 0.1 ∘C and precipitation decreasing by 6 mm yr−1. However, there were strong regional impacts, with the largest impact occurring in boreal and alpine ecosystems, where such costs were estimated to increase temperature by 1.0 ∘C and precipitation by 9 mm yr−1. As such, our results suggest that carbon expenditures to support nitrogen-acquiring microbial symbionts have critical consequences for Earth's climate, and that carbon–climate models that omit these processes will overpredict the land carbon sink and underpredict climate change.

Enhanced Atlantic sea-level rise relative to the Pacific under high carbon emission rates

Different ocean basins warm at different rates in response to climate change. A coupled carbon–climate model reveals that high carbon emission rates will lead to greater sea-level rise in the Atlantic than the Pacific on centennial timescales. Thermal expansion of the ocean in response to warming is an important component of historical sea-level rise1. Observational studies show that the Atlantic and Southern oceans are warming faster than the Pacific Ocean2,3,4,5. Here we present simulations using a numerical atmospheric-ocean general circulation model with an interactive carbon cycle to evaluate the impact of carbon emission rates, ranging from 2 to 25 GtC yr−1, on basin-scale ocean heat uptake and sea level. For simulations with emission rates greater than 5 GtC yr−1, sea-level rise is larger in the Atlantic than Pacific Ocean on centennial timescales. This basin-scale asymmetry is related to the shorter flushing timescales and weakening of the overturning circulation in the Atlantic. These factors lead to warmer Atlantic interior waters and greater thermal expansion. In contrast, low emission rates of 2 and 3 GtC yr−1 will cause relatively larger sea-level rise in the Pacific on millennial timescales. For a given level of cumulative emissions, sea-level rise is largest at low emission rates. We conclude that Atlantic coastal areas may be particularly vulnerable to near-future sea-level rise from present-day high greenhouse gas emission rates.

Evaluating the Land and Ocean Components of the Global Carbon Cycle in the CMIP5 Earth System Models

Abstract The authors assess the ability of 18 Earth system models to simulate the land and ocean carbon cycle for the present climate. These models will be used in the next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) for climate projections, and such evaluation allows identification of the strengths and weaknesses of individual coupled carbon–climate models as well as identification of systematic biases of the models. Results show that models correctly reproduce the main climatic variables controlling the spatial and temporal characteristics of the carbon cycle. The seasonal evolution of the variables under examination is well captured. However, weaknesses appear when reproducing specific fields: in particular, considering the land carbon cycle, a general overestimation of photosynthesis and leaf area index is found for most of the models, while the ocean evaluation shows that quite a few models underestimate the primary production.The authors also propose climate and carbon cycle performance metrics in order to assess whether there is a set of consistently better models for reproducing the carbon cycle. Averaged seasonal cycles and probability density functions (PDFs) calculated from model simulations are compared with the corresponding seasonal cycles and PDFs from different observed datasets. Although the metrics used in this study allow identification of some models as better or worse than the average, the ranking of this study is partially subjective because of the choice of the variables under examination and also can be sensitive to the choice of reference data. In addition, it was found that the model performances show significant regional variations.

Boreal carbon loss due to poleward shift in low-carbon ecosystems

Climate change can be thought of in terms of geographical shifts in climate properties. Tracking the geographical movement of analogous climate conditions between historical and future climate model simulations, and calculating the impact of such shifts on vegetation carbon storage, suggests that boreal forests will lose carbon as low-carbon ecosystems shift in. Climate change can be thought of in terms of geographical shifts in climate properties. Examples include assessments of shifts in habitat distributions1, of the movement needed to maintain constant temperature or precipitation2, and of the emergence and disappearance of climate zones3. Here I track the movement of analogue climates within climate models. From the model simulations, I define a set of vectors that link a historical reference climate for each location to the location in a changed climate whose seasonal temperature and precipitation cycles best match the reference climate. I use these vectors to calculate the change in vegetation carbon storage with climate change due to ecosystems following climate analogues. Comparing the derived carbon content change to direct carbon projections by coupled carbon–climate models reveals two regions of divergence. In the tropical forests, vector projections are fundamentally uncertain because of a lack of close climatic analogues. In the southern boreal forest, carbon losses are projected in the vector perspective because low-carbon ecosystems shift polewards. However, the majority of carbon–climate models—typically without explicit simulation of the disturbance and mortality processes behind such shifts—instead project vegetation carbon gains throughout the boreal region. Southern boreal carbon loss as a result of ecosystem shift is likely to offset carbon gains from northern boreal forest expansion.

Volcano impacts on climate and biogeochemistry in a coupled carbon–climate model

Abstract. Volcanic eruptions induce a dynamical response in the climate system characterized by short-term global reductions in both surface temperature and precipitation, as well as a response in biogeochemistry. The available observations of these responses to volcanic eruptions, such as to Pinatubo, provide a valuable method to compare against model simulations. Here, the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3) reproduces the physical climate response to volcanic eruptions in a realistic way, as compared to direct observations from the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo. The model's biogeochemical response to eruptions is smaller in magnitude than observed, but because of the lack of observations, it is not clear why or where the modeled carbon response is not strong enough. Comparison to other models suggests that this model response is much weaker over tropical land; however, the precipitation response in other models is not accurate, suggesting that other models could be getting the right response for the wrong reason. The underestimated carbon response in the model compared to observations could also be due to the ash and lava input of biogeochemically important species to the ocean, which are not included in the simulation. A statistically significant reduction in the simulated carbon dioxide growth rate is seen at the 90% level in the average of 12 large eruptions over the period 1870–2000, and the net uptake of carbon is primarily concentrated in the tropics, with large spatial variability. In addition, a method for computing the volcanic response in model output without using a control ensemble is tested against a traditional methodology using two separate ensembles of runs; the method is found to produce similar results in the global average. These results suggest that not only is simulating volcanoes a good test of coupled carbon–climate models, but also that this test can be performed without a control simulation in cases where it is not practical to run separate ensembles with and without volcanic eruptions.

GFDL’s ESM2 Global Coupled Climate–Carbon Earth System Models. Part I: Physical Formulation and Baseline Simulation Characteristics

Abstract The physical climate formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled carbon–climate Earth System Models, ESM2M and ESM2G, are described. These models demonstrate similar climate fidelity as the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s previous Climate Model version 2.1 (CM2.1) while incorporating explicit and consistent carbon dynamics. The two models differ exclusively in the physical ocean component; ESM2M uses Modular Ocean Model version 4p1 with vertical pressure layers while ESM2G uses Generalized Ocean Layer Dynamics with a bulk mixed layer and interior isopycnal layers. Differences in the ocean mean state include the thermocline depth being relatively deep in ESM2M and relatively shallow in ESM2G compared to observations. The crucial role of ocean dynamics on climate variability is highlighted in El Niño–Southern Oscillation being overly strong in ESM2M and overly weak in ESM2G relative to observations. Thus, while ESM2G might better represent climate changes relating to total heat content variability given its lack of long-term drift, gyre circulation, and ventilation in the North Pacific, tropical Atlantic, and Indian Oceans, and depth structure in the overturning and abyssal flows, ESM2M might better represent climate changes relating to surface circulation given its superior surface temperature, salinity, and height patterns, tropical Pacific circulation and variability, and Southern Ocean dynamics. The overall assessment is that neither model is fundamentally superior to the other, and that both models achieve sufficient fidelity to allow meaningful climate and earth system modeling applications. This affords the ability to assess the role of ocean configuration on earth system interactions in the context of two state-of-the-art coupled carbon–climate models.

Tropical mid-tropospheric CO2 variability driven by the Madden-Julian oscillation.

Carbon dioxide (CO(2)) is the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the present-day climate. Most of the community focuses on its long-term (decadal to centennial) behaviors that are relevant to climate change, but there are relatively few discussions of its higher-frequency forms of variability, and none regarding its subseasonal distribution. In this work, we report a large-scale intraseasonal variation in the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder CO(2) data in the global tropical region associated with the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). The peak-to-peak amplitude of the composite MJO modulation is ∼1ppmv, with a standard error of the composite mean <0.1ppmv. The correlation structure between CO(2) and rainfall and vertical velocity indicate positive (negative) anomalies in CO(2) arise due to upward (downward) large-scale vertical motions in the lower troposphere associated with the MJO. These findings can help elucidate how faster processes can organize, transport, and mix CO(2) and provide a robustness test for coupled carbon-climate models.

Photodegradation leads to increased carbon dioxide losses from terrestrial organic matter

AbstractCO2 production in terrestrial ecosystems is generally assumed to be solely biologically driven while the role of abiotic processes has been largely overlooked. In addition to microbial decomposition, photodegradation – the direct breakdown of organic matter (OM) by solar irradiance – has been found to contribute to litter mass loss in dry ecosystems. Previous small‐scale studies have shown that litter degradation by irradiance is accompanied by emissions of CO2. However, the contribution of photodegradation to total CO2 losses at ecosystems scales is unknown. This study determined the proportion of the total CO2 losses caused by photodegradation in two ecosystems: a bare peatland in New Zealand and a seasonally dry grassland in California. The direct effect of solar irradiance on CO2 production was examined by comparing daytime CO2 fluxes measured using eddy covariance (EC) systems with simultaneous measurements made using an opaque chamber and the soil CO2 gradient technique, and with night‐time EC measurements under the same soil temperature and moisture conditions. In addition, a transparent chamber was used to directly measure CO2 fluxes from OM caused by solar irradiance. Photodegradation contributed 19% of the annual CO2 flux from the peatland and almost 60% of the dry season CO2 flux from the grassland, and up to 62% and 92% of the summer mid‐day CO2 fluxes, respectively. Our results suggest that photodegradation may be important in a wide range of ecosystems with exposed OM. Furthermore, the practice of partitioning daytime ecosystem CO2 exchange into its gross components by assuming that total daytime CO2 losses can be approximated using estimates of biological respiration alone may be in error. To obtain robust estimates of global ecosystem–atmosphere carbon transfers, the contribution of photodegradation to OM decomposition must be quantified for other ecosystems and the results incorporated into coupled carbon–climate models.

The Effect of Terrestrial Photosynthesis Down Regulation on the Twentieth-Century Carbon Budget Simulated with the CCCma Earth System Model

Abstract The simulation of atmospheric–land–ocean CO2 exchange for the 1850–2000 period offers the possibility of testing and calibrating the carbon budget in earth system models by comparing the simulated changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and in land and ocean uptake with observation-based information. In particular, some of the uncertainties associated with the treatment of land use change (LUC) and the role of down regulation in affecting the strength of CO2 fertilization for terrestrial photosynthesis are assessed using the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Earth System Model (CanESM1). LUC emissions may be specified as an external source of CO2 or calculated interactively based on estimated changes in crop area. The evidence for photosynthetic down regulation is reviewed and an empirically based representation is implemented and tested in the model. Four fully coupled simulations are performed: with and without terrestrial photosynthesis down regulation and with interactively determined or specified LUC emissions. Simulations without terrestrial photosynthesis down regulation yield 15–20 ppm lower atmospheric CO2 by the end of the twentieth century, compared to observations, regardless of the LUC approach used because of higher carbon uptake by land. Implementation of down regulation brings simulated values of atmospheric CO2 and land and ocean carbon uptake closer to observation-based values. The use of specified LUC emissions yields a large source in the tropics during the 1981–2000 period, which is inconsistent with studies suggesting the tropics to be near-neutral or small carbon sinks. The annual cycle of simulated global averaged CO2, dominated by the Northern Hemisphere terrestrial photosynthesis and respiration cycles, is reasonably well reproduced, as is the latitudinal distribution of CO2 and the dependence of interhemispheric CO2 gradient on fossil fuel emissions. The empirical approach used here offers a reasonable method of implementing down regulation in coupled carbon–climate models in the absence of a more explicit biogeochemical representation.

Terrestrial carbon‐cycle feedback to climate warming: experimental evidence on plant regulation and impacts of biofuel feedstock harvest

AbstractFeedback between global carbon (C) cycles and climate change is one of the major uncertainties in projecting future global warming. Coupled carbon–climate models all demonstrated a positive feedback between terrestrial C cycle and climate warming. The positive feedback results from decreased net primary production (NPP) in most models and increased respiratory C release by all the models under climate warming. Those modeling results present interesting hypotheses of future states of ecosystems and climate, which are yet to be tested against experimental results. In this study, we examined ecosystem C balance and its major components in a warming and clipping experiment in a North America tallgrass prairie. Infrared heaters have been used to elevate soil temperature by approximately 2 °C continuously since November 1999. Clipping once a year was to mimic hay or biofuel feedstock harvest. On average of data over 6 years from 2000 to 2005, estimated NPP under warming increased by 14% without clipping (P&lt;0.05) and 26% with clipping (P&lt;0.05) in comparison with that under control. Warming did not result in instantaneous increases in soil respiration in 1999 and 2000 but significantly increased it by approximately 8% without clipping (P&lt;0.05) from 2001 to 2005. Soil respiration under warming increased by 15% with clipping (P&lt;0.05) from 2000 to 2005. Warming‐stimulated plant biomass production, due to enhanced C4 dominance, extended growing seasons, and increased nitrogen uptake and use efficiency, offset increased soil respiration, leading to no change in soil C storage at our site. However, biofuel feedstock harvest by biomass removal resulted in significant soil C loss in the clipping and control plots but was carbon negative in the clipping and warming plots largely because of positive interactions of warming and clipping in stimulating root growth. Our results demonstrate that plant production processes play a critical role in regulation of ecosystem carbon‐cycle feedback to climate change in both the current ambient and future warmed world.

Terrestrial carbon-cycle feedback to climate warming: experimental evidence on plant regulation and impacts of biofuel feedstock harvest

Feedback between global carbon (C) cycles and climate change is one of the major uncertainties in projecting future global warming. Coupled carbon–climate models all demonstrated a positive feedback between terrestrial C cycle and climate warming. The positive feedback results from decreased net primary production (NPP) in most models and increased respiratory C release by all the models under climate warming. Those modeling results present interesting hypotheses of future states of ecosystems and climate, which are yet to be tested against experimental results. In this study, we examined ecosystem C balance and its major components in a warming and clipping experiment in a North America tallgrass prairie. Infrared heaters have been used to elevate soil temperature by approximately 21C continuously since November 1999. Clipping once a year was to mimic hay or biofuel feedstock harvest. On average of data over 6 years from 2000 to 2005, estimated NPP under warming increased by 14% without clipping (Po0.05) and 26% with clipping (Po0.05) in comparison with that under control. Warming did not result in instantaneous increases in soil respiration in 1999 and 2000 but significantly increased it by approximately 8% without clipping (Po0.05) from 2001 to 2005. Soil respiration under warming increased by 15% with clipping (Po0.05) from 2000 to 2005. Warming-stimulated plant biomass production, due to enhanced C4 dominance, extended growing seasons, and increased nitrogen uptake and use efficiency, offset increased soil respiration, leading to no change in soil C storage at our site. However, biofuel feedstock harvest by biomass removal resulted in significant soil C loss in the clipping and control plots but was carbon negative in the clipping and warming plots largely because of positive interactions of warming and clipping in stimulating root growth. Our results demonstrate that plant production processes play a critical role in regulation of ecosystem carbon-cycle feedback to climate change in both the current ambient and future warmed world.

Natural Variability in a Stable, 1000-Yr Global Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Simulation

Abstract A new 3D global coupled carbon–climate model is presented in the framework of the Community Climate System Model (CSM-1.4). The biogeochemical module includes explicit land water–carbon coupling, dynamic carbon allocation to leaf, root, and wood, prognostic leaf phenology, multiple soil and detrital carbon pools, oceanic iron limitation, a full ocean iron cycle, and 3D atmospheric CO2 transport. A sequential spinup strategy is utilized to minimize the coupling shock and drifts in land and ocean carbon inventories. A stable, 1000-yr control simulation [global annual mean surface temperature ±0.10 K and atmospheric CO2 ± 1.2 ppm (1σ)] is presented with no flux adjustment in either physics or biogeochemistry. The control simulation compares reasonably well against observations for key annual mean and seasonal carbon cycle metrics; regional biases in coupled model physics, however, propagate clearly into biogeochemical error patterns. Simulated interannual-to-centennial variability in atmospheric CO2 is dominated by terrestrial carbon flux variability, ±0.69 Pg C yr−1 (1σ global net annual mean), which in turn reflects primarily regional changes in net primary production modulated by moisture stress. Power spectra of global CO2 fluxes are white on time scales beyond a few years, and thus most of the variance is concentrated at high frequencies (time scale &amp;lt;4 yr). Model variability in air–sea CO2 fluxes, ±0.10 Pg C yr−1 (1σ global annual mean), is generated by variability in sea surface temperature, wind speed, export production, and mixing/upwelling. At low frequencies (time scale &amp;gt;20 yr), global net ocean CO2 flux is strongly anticorrelated (0.7–0.95) with the net CO2 flux from land; the ocean tends to damp (20%–25%) slow variations in atmospheric CO2 generated by the terrestrial biosphere. The intrinsic, unforced natural variability in land and ocean carbon storage is the “noise” that complicates the detection and mechanistic attribution of contemporary anthropogenic carbon sinks.

Evolution of carbon sinks in a changing climate

Climate change is expected to influence the capacities of the land and oceans to act as repositories for anthropogenic CO2 and hence provide a feedback to climate change. A series of experiments with the National Center for Atmospheric Research-Climate System Model 1 coupled carbon-climate model shows that carbon sink strengths vary with the rate of fossil fuel emissions, so that carbon storage capacities of the land and oceans decrease and climate warming accelerates with faster CO2 emissions. Furthermore, there is a positive feedback between the carbon and climate systems, so that climate warming acts to increase the airborne fraction of anthropogenic CO2 and amplify the climate change itself. Globally, the amplification is small at the end of the 21st century in this model because of its low transient climate response and the near-cancellation between large regional changes in the hydrologic and ecosystem responses. Analysis of our results in the context of comparable models suggests that destabilization of the tropical land sink is qualitatively robust, although its degree is uncertain.