Coupled Ocean Model Research Articles

High-resolution regional sea-ice model based on the discrete element method with boundary conditions from a large-scale model for ice drift

Abstract Understanding sea-ice dynamics at the floe scale is crucial to comprehend polar climate systems. While continuum models are commonly used to simulate large-scale sea-ice dynamics, they have limitations in accurately representing sea-ice behaviour at small scales. DEMs, on the other hand, are well-suited for modelling the behaviour of individual ice floes but face limitations due to computational constraints. To address the limitations of both approaches while combining their strengths, we explored the feasibility of using a DEM within a continuum model, where the latter provides boundary conditions for a rectangular high-resolution DEM domain. This paper presents a feasibility study where a discrete model of a 100 × 100 km2 icefield was created using high-resolution optical satellite imagery. Sea-ice dynamics were simulated in the DEM considering environmental forces and integrating large-scale ice-drift velocities as boundary conditions. Model predictions were compared with satellite observations for ice drift and deformation parameters. This numerical approach showed potential for offering accurate, high-resolution predictions of sea ice, particularly in coastal areas and near islands, and may find applications in ice navigation and climate studies. However, further development of the DEM, along with upgrades to the coupled ocean models providing data for the ice component, may be necessary. Additionally, challenges remain to develop a two-way coupling between the DEM and a continuum model, which may be needed to improve the accuracy of large-scale simulations.

Unveiling the Pivotal Influence of Sea Spray Heat Fluxes on Hurricane Rapid Intensification

Abstract Predicting rapid hurricane intensification remains a challenge, partially due to neglected factors like sea spray-mediated heat flux. To shed light on the specific roles of spray-mediated sensible and latent heat fluxes, we conducted sensitivity experiments with heat flux parameterizations. Our results demonstrate that the inclusion and variation of the spray-mediated sensible heat significantly reduce model errors when compared against dropsonde data. These findings uniquely quantify the pivotal role of spray-mediated sensible heat flux in accurately predicting hurricane rapid intensification compared to previous studies. Without sea spray processes, ocean-coupled model simulations could not reproduce the steep intensification rate observed in multi-case studies of four high-impact hurricanes. This study also highlights that dropsonde data, as well as directly observed flux, is useful in minimizing uncertainty in the flux parameterization used for hurricane simulations. In this paper, we show how spray-mediated heat flux affects hurricane energetics through turbulent heat exchange and subsequent humid air inflow through primary and secondary circulations. Our findings provide new insights into the transformative role of sea spray in turbulent heat exchange that drives rapid hurricane intensification.

Coupled ice–ocean interactions during future retreat of West Antarctic ice streams in the Amundsen Sea sector

Abstract. The Amundsen Sea sector has some of the fastest-thinning ice shelves in Antarctica, caused by high, ocean-driven basal melt rates, which can lead to increased ice streamflow, causing increased sea level rise (SLR) contributions. In this study, we present the results of a new synchronously coupled ice-sheet–ocean model of the Amundsen Sea sector. We use the Wavelet-based, Adaptive-grid, Vertically Integrated ice sheet model (WAVI) to solve for ice velocities and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) to solve for ice thickness and three-dimensional ocean properties, allowing for full mass conservation in the coupled ice–ocean system. The coupled model is initialised in the present day and run forward under idealised warm and cold ocean conditions with a fixed ice front. We find that Thwaites Glacier dominates the future SLR from the Amundsen Sea sector, with a SLR that evolves approximately quadratically over time. The future evolution of Thwaites Glacier depends on the lifespan of small pinning points that form during the retreat. The rate of melting around these pinning points provides the link between future ocean conditions and the SLR from this sector and will be difficult to capture without a coupled ice–ocean model. Grounding-line retreat leads to a progressively larger Thwaites Ice Shelf cavity, leading to a positive trend in total melting, resulting from the increased ice basal surface area. Despite these important sensitivities, Thwaites Glacier retreats even in a scenario with zero ocean-driven melting. This demonstrates that a tipping point may have been passed in these simulations and some SLR from this sector is now committed.

Geometric amplification and suppression of ice-shelf basal melt in West Antarctica

Abstract. Glaciers along the Amundsen Sea coastline in West Antarctica are dynamically adjusting to a change in ice-shelf mass balance that triggered their retreat and speed-up prior to the satellite era. In recent decades, the ice shelves have continued to thin, albeit at a decelerating rate, whilst ice discharge across the grounding lines has been observed to have increased by up to 100 % since the early 1990s. Here, the ongoing evolution of ice-shelf mass balance components is assessed in a high-resolution coupled ice–ocean model that includes the Pine Island, Thwaites, Crosson, and Dotson ice shelves. For a range of idealized ocean-forcing scenarios, the combined evolution of ice-shelf geometry and basal-melt rates is simulated over a 200-year period. For all ice-shelf cavities, a reconfiguration of the 3D ocean circulation in response to changes in cavity geometry is found to cause significant and sustained changes in basal-melt rate, ranging from a 75 % decrease up to a 75 % increase near the grounding lines, irrespective of the far-field forcing. These previously unexplored feedbacks between changes in ice-shelf geometry, ocean circulation, and basal melting have a demonstrable impact on the net ice-shelf mass balance, including grounding-line discharge, at multi-decadal timescales. They should be considered in future projections of Antarctic mass loss alongside changes in ice-shelf melt due to anthropogenic trends in the ocean temperature and salinity.

Optimized sea ice simulation in MITgcm-ECCO2 forced by ERA5

Coupled ice–ocean models require an accurate performance of sea ice dynamics and thermodynamics to realistically simulate sea ice circulation in the polar regions. However, atmospheric surface variables from reanalysis products that force the models differ in spatial and temporal resolutions, and there are also substantial inconsistencies in the distributions and magnitudes of these variables between the products. Therefore, several key parameters in the models need to be adjusted for the models forced by different atmospheric reanalysis products. This study compares the sea ice properties simulated by the previously optimized MITgcm-ECCO2 model forced by JRA25 and forced by the recently released ERA5. The comparisons with high-resolution satellite sea ice data reveal that the simulations forced by these two datasets significantly overestimate the Arctic sea ice concentration in summer, whereas the simulation forced by ERA5 underestimates the winter Antarctic sea ice. It is likely that the downward longwave radiation and wind stress regime in ERA5 is responsible for the underestimated Antarctic sea ice cover. We then optimize MITgcm-ECCO2 model forced by ERA5 by using Green functions. We consider six key parameters: sea ice strength, ice-atmospheric drag coefficient, ice–ocean drag coefficient, ice and snow albedos, and sea ice salinity. The optimized simulation significantly improves the sea ice distribution in both regions using a more realistic set of sea ice parameters. The most significant improvement is in the Antarctic, where winter sea ice extent misfit decreases by 48%. The optimized simulation reveals that ERA5 reproduces a closer representation of the Arctic sea ice extent and thickness than JRA25. In the southern hemisphere, ERA5 simulates the sea ice drift better, whereas the JRA25 have the closest match to the sea ice extent. Despite the improvements, further work is necessary for the Antarctic, where the lack of reliable observational data and limitations of the ocean model hinders the optimization.

On the Rapid Weakening of Typhoon Trami (2018): Strong Sea Surface Temperature Cooling Associated with Slow Translation Speed

Abstract This work investigates the rapid weakening (RW) processes of Typhoon Trami (2018) by examining sea surface temperature (SST) cooling based on air–sea coupled simulations during typhoon passage. The cold wake and Trami’s RW occurred as the storm was moving at a very slow translation speed. A marked structural change of Trami is found in a three-dimensional ocean-coupled model experiment during the RW stage, in which the convective clouds and convective bursts in the inner core of the simulated TC dramatically decrease, resulting in the loss of diabatic heating and leading to weakening of the TC. In the simulation, the enthalpy flux dramatically decreases in the inner core because of the SST cooling during the RW period, while a stable boundary layer (SBL) is formed in the TC’s inner-core region. The expanding SBL coverage stabilizes the atmosphere and suppresses convection in the inner core, leading to weakening of the storm. A more stable atmosphere in the cold wake is also identified by the inner-core dropsonde data from the field program of Tropical Cyclones-Pacific Asian Research Campaign for Improvement of Intensity Estimations/Forecasts. The strong SST cooling also changes the evolution of Trami’s eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) and limits the eyewall contraction after the ERC.

Interactions Between Ocean and Successive Typhoons in the Kuroshio Region in 2018 in Atmosphere–Ocean Coupled Model Simulations

AbstractTyphoons decrease sea surface temperature (SST) along their wakes through upwelling of subsurface water, vertical mixing in the upper ocean, and heat release from the sea surface, and these cold wakes can influence subsequent typhoons. In this study, we investigated interactions between the upper ocean and typhoons in the North Pacific subtropical gyre with focuses on Kuroshio's response and feedback using atmosphere–ocean coupled model simulations. In late August and early September 2018, typhoons SOULIK, CIMARON, and JEBI passed through the northwestern subtropical gyre. During the passages of SOULIK and CIMARON, SST decreased along their paths due to vertical mixing except in the Kuroshio region. We quantitatively revealed that the Kuroshio stayed warm because the deep mixed layer along its path and small vertical temperature gradient around the mixed layer base, which are unfavorable conditions for cooling by vertical mixing, limited the cooling effects. After SOULIK and CIMARON had passed, SST recovered through horizontal Kuroshio heat transport and radiative heating. The possibility that the SST field after SOULIK and CIMARON passages influences JEBI was also discussed. Although impacts on JEBI intensity were not identified, it is implied that the turbulent heat flux (THF; sum of the sensible and latent heat fluxes) around JEBI was modulated by the SST field: heat release from the ocean was reduced in the region with decreased SST and enhanced over the sustained high SST of the Kuroshio. Furthermore, the large THF over the Kuroshio may have caused an increase of JEBI‐associated precipitation around Japan.

MARINE HEATWAVES IN THE LAPTEV SEA IN 2019-2020

Marine heat waves are extreme events that represent a significant excess of average climatic temperatures. In this study marine heat waves calculated both from observational data and from numerical modeling data in the Laptev Sea region are analyzed. The regional numerical model SibCIOM (Siberian Coupled Ice-Ocean Model) is used to study the variability of the hydrological characteristics of the Arctic Ocean and its shelf seas. Observational data shows an increase in the frequency and intensity of the marine heat waves in recent years in this region. On the basis of numerical experiments, the work demonstrates intense warming in the bottom layer, as a consequence of the increase in the sea surface temperature of the Laptev Sea in recent years. The paper analyzes the possible causes and consequences of an increase in the sea surface temperature of the Laptev Sea.

Modeling a Large Coastal Upwelling Event in Lake Superior

AbstractAn extraordinary strong wind‐driven upwelling event occurred in Lake Superior in summer of 2010 when the lake was strongly stratified. In this paper, a detailed three‐dimensional (3‐D) investigation of the current and thermal structures during the upwelling event was conducted using in situ observations, remote sensing products, and the results of a long‐term numerical simulation. A 3‐D finite‐volume coupled ice–ocean model tailored for the Laurentian Great Lakes was employed for this purpose. The model was validated with temperature observations at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration buoys and mooring data from 2010. The upwelling event observed in satellite imagery and at a mooring station was reproduced by the model, showing a cooling of as much as 10°C in August 2010 along the northwestern coast. The relationship between the alongshore wind and the offshore thermocline displacement (upwelling front) derived in theoretical work (Csanady, 1977, https://doi.org/10.1029/JC082i003p00397) was used to calculate upwelling front movement offshore and found to be in in close agreement with model prediction. A significant correlation between alongshore wind stress and lake temperature change in the upwelling zone was found with a correlation coefficient of −0.87. A simple linear heat balance model explained most of variability in temperature.

Effects of Wave-Induced Sea Ice Break-Up and Mixing in a High-Resolution Coupled Ice-Ocean Model

Arctic sea ice plays a vital role in modulating the global climate. In the most recent decades, the rapid decline of the Arctic summer sea ice cover has exposed increasing areas of ice-free ocean, with sufficient fetch for waves to develop. This has highlighted the complex and not well-understood nature of wave-ice interactions, requiring modeling effort. Here, we introduce two independent parameterizations in a high-resolution coupled ice-ocean model to investigate the effects of wave-induced sea ice break-up (through albedo change) and mixing on the Arctic sea ice simulation. Our results show that wave-induced sea ice break-up leads to increases in sea ice concentration and thickness in the Bering Sea, the Baffin Sea and the Barents Sea during the ice growth season, but accelerates the sea ice melt in the Chukchi Sea and the East Siberian Sea in summer. Further, wave-induced mixing can decelerate the sea ice formation in winter and the sea ice melt in summer by exchanging the heat fluxes between the surface and subsurface layer. As our baseline model underestimates sea ice cover in winter and produces more sea ice in summer, wave-induced sea ice break-up plays a positive role in improving the sea ice simulation. This study provides two independent parameterizations to directly include the wave effects into the sea ice models, with important implications for the future sea ice model development.

Future Changes of a Slow-Moving Intense Typhoon with Global Warming: A Case Study Using a Regional 1-km-mesh Atmosphere–Ocean Coupled Model

Future Changes of a Slow-Moving Intense Typhoon with Global Warming: A Case Study Using a Regional 1-km-mesh Atmosphere–Ocean Coupled Model

Intercomparisons of High‐Resolution Global Ocean Analyses: Evaluation of A New Synthesis in Tropical Oceans

AbstractA new high‐resolution global analysis product is constructed from a fully coupled surface wave‐tide‐circulation Ocean Model developed by the First Institute of Oceanography Coupled Ocean Model (FIO‐COM). The performance of the FIO‐COM analysis data set is assessed based on comparisons with two other widely used high‐resolution global analysis products (Copernicus marine and environment monitoring service and HYbrid isopycnal‐sigma‐pressure coordinate ocean model), and observations in tropical oceans. Through comparison with observations, the FIO‐COM analysis is shown to be able to accurately capture the large‐scale mixed layer depth (MLD) structures in the tropical oceans during all seasons. Seasonal variations of MLDs can exceed ±80% in the southern and northern tropical oceans (10°‐25°S and 10°‐25°N) in both boreal winter and summer, as inferred from observations and FIO‐COM analysis data. Quantitative assessments of the 20°C isothermal depth, temperature at 5°m depth, and temperature and salinity profiles, among the analyses and in situ observations are also conducted. The capability of the FIO‐COM analysis to reflect the observed sea surface temperature variability during the 2015 El Niño episode is further investigated through comparisons with observations from 19 TAO buoys located in the Niño 3.4 region. All indicate the high quality of the new data set.

A high-resolution coupled ice–ocean model of winter circulation on the Bering Sea Shelf. Part II: Polynyas and the shelf salinity distribution

The sea ice component of a regional high-resolution ocean model is improved, with particular attention to accurate representation of the salinity budget for the coupled system. The impact of this improvement is shown first using a one-dimensional test and then the realistic model simulation of the Eastern Bering Sea for the relatively high sea ice extent winter of 2009–10. Improvements to the model ice–ocean salt flux parameterization are demonstrated by comparison of model shelf salinity fields with observations from moorings and CTDs. As polynya regions can strongly influence winter salinity distributions on the Bering Sea shelf, model ice concentrations are compared to satellite estimates for several regions. Areas with a tendency to exhibit higher than average winter open water area include St. Lawrence Island and the southern coast of the Chukotka Peninsula. A new methodology is proposed analyzing the evolution of the salinity distribution with the aid of salt flux tracers that track occurrence of brine and meltwater separately. These demonstrate how cold winters on the Bering Sea shelf are characterized by a freshening and stratifying of the mid- to outer-shelf and an increase of salinity on the inner shelf. Use of an ice-age tracer in the model reveals an anticyclonic circulation of sea ice in mid-winter, as the Bering slope current and Anadyr current recirculate ice that has been transported south–southwestward by the predominant winds. The characteristics of coastal polynya regions are quantitatively compared and a model transect extending from the St. Lawrence polynya to the shelf break is analyzed to help illustrate the temporal and spatial variability of stratification and circulation occurring as the sea ice advances and retreats over the winter season.

Arctic Ocean and Hudson Bay Freshwater Exports: New Estimates from Seven Decades of Hydrographic Surveys on the Labrador Shelf

AbstractWhile reasonable knowledge of multidecadal Arctic freshwater storage variability exists, we have little knowledge of Arctic freshwater exports on similar time scales. A hydrographic time series from the Labrador Shelf, spanning seven decades at annual resolution, is here used to quantify Arctic Ocean freshwater export variability west of Greenland. Output from a high-resolution coupled ice–ocean model is used to establish the representativeness of those hydrographic sections. Clear annual to decadal variability emerges, with high freshwater transports during the 1950s and 1970s–80s, and low transports in the 1960s and from the mid-1990s to 2016, with typical amplitudes of 30 mSv (1 Sv = 106m3s−1). The variability in both the transports and cumulative volumes correlates well both with Arctic and North Atlantic freshwater storage changes on the same time scale. We refer to the “inshore branch” of the Labrador Current as the Labrador Coastal Current, because it is a dynamically and geographically distinct feature. It originates as the Hudson Bay outflow, and preserves variability from river runoff into the Hudson Bay catchment. We find a need for parallel, long-term freshwater transport measurements from Fram and Davis Straits to better understand Arctic freshwater export control mechanisms and partitioning of variability between routes west and east of Greenland, and a need for better knowledge and understanding of year-round (solid and liquid) freshwater fluxes on the Labrador shelf. Our results have implications for wider, coherent atmospheric control on freshwater fluxes and content across the Arctic Ocean and northern North Atlantic Ocean.

Application of an ice-ocean coupled model to Bohai Sea ice simulation

The HAMSOM (Hamburg Shelf Ocean Model), a high-resolution regional ice-ocean coupled model, was applied to investigate the seasonal evolution of Bohai Sea ice for winter 2015/2016. HAMSOM was initialized with monthly climatological temperature and salinity data from WOA13 and driven by hourly meteorological data obtained from the NCEP above the sea surface and tides at the open boundary. The ice model used here is a modified Hibler-type dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model based upon viscous-plastic rheology. The ice extent, concentration, area, thickness, length of ice season as well as the distance between the top of Liaodong Bay (North China) and the outer ice edge line were simulated and compared with the observed data. Three types of modeling experiments were carried out to investigate the effects of wind, tide, and both wind and tide on Bohai Sea ice. The results show that wind, as both a dynamic and a thermodynamic factor, has a significant impact on the ice thickness, ice area, and ice-freezing and ice breakup dates as well as the ice velocity, while tides are a dynamic factor that influences only the ice velocity. During the severe ice period, the wind speed intensity increased by 25%, the average ice thickness thickened by approximately 4.0 cm in Liaodong Bay, approximately 2.1 cm in Bohai Bay and approximately 2.5 cm in Laizhou Bay, and the total ice coverage area and total ice actual area increased by about 2×104 km2 and 1.4×104 km2, respectively. While the tidal amplitude intensity increased by 25%, the average ice velocity increased by approximately 0.1 m/s.

Medium range sea ice prediction in support of Japanese research vessel MIRAI’s expedition cruise in 2018

ABSTRACT The Japanese research vessel MIRAI sailed into the Arctic Ocean through the Bering Strait from 4 to 25 November 2018 to study the atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice of the Chukchi Sea. Early winter dynamics and thermodynamics can cause sea ice conditions to change over short timescales. Heavy ice pressure may build up in the compression of compact ice. MIRAI is an ice-strengthened ship that has to avoid thick sea ice and areas of high sea ice coverage, and therefore precise medium-range forecast of sea ice distribution is key to its safe and efficient navigation. A high-resolution (about 2.5 km) coupled ice–ocean model was used to produce medium-range (10-day) forecasts for the expedition. European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s atmospheric model high-resolution 10-day forecast was used as forcing data. Forecast skill is measured by ice edge error, which is the average distance between forecast and observed ice edges. Using a threshold of 15% sea ice concentration to indicate the ice edge, the maximum ice edge error in the ice–ocean coupled model in the Chukchi Sea is 16 km, indicating that the model is able to provide 10-day forecasts with sufficient accuracy for the vessel’s operation.

Verification of the Reliability of Offshore Wind Resource Prediction Using an Atmosphere–Ocean Coupled Model

An atmosphere–ocean coupled model is proposed as an optimal numerical prediction method for the offshore wind resource. Meteorological prediction models are mainly used for wind speed prediction, with active studies using atmospheric models. Seawater mixing occurring at sea due to solar radiation and wind intensity can significantly change the sea surface temperature (SST), an important variable for predicting wind resources and energy production, considering its wind effect, within a short time. This study used the weather research forecasting and ocean mixed layer (WRF-OML) model, an atmosphere–ocean coupled model, to reflect time-dependent SST and sea surface fluxes. Results are compared with those of the WRF model, another atmospheric model, and verified through comparison with observation data of a meteorological mast (met-mast) at sea. At a height of 94 m, the wind speed predicted had a bias and root mean square error of 1.09 m/s and 2.88 m/s for the WRF model, and −0.07 m/s and 2.45 m/s for the WRF-OML model, respectively. Thus, the WRF-OML model has a higher reliability. In comparing to the met-mast observation data, the annual energy production (AEP) estimation based on the predicted wind speed showed an overestimation of 15.3% and underestimation of 5.9% from the WRF and WRF-OML models, respectively.

Sensitivity of Ice Drift to Form Drag and Ice Strength Parameterization in a Coupled Ice–Ocean Model

ABSTRACTA pan-Arctic sea-ice–ocean prediction system is assessed in terms of its ability to predict sea-ice velocity. This system is based on the Regional Ice Ocean Prediction System running operationally at the Canadian Centre for Meteorological and Environmental Prediction. A form drag parameterization is implemented in the system to allow spatially and temporally varying neutral drag coefficients depending on the sea-ice morphological characteristics. Simulated ice velocity is assessed using data from the International Arctic Buoy Programme, as well as ice motion derived from Environment and Climate Change Canada’s synthetic aperture radar automated ice-tracking system. Results indicate that introducing the form drag parameterization systematically increases the sea-ice velocity and exacerbates a positive bias in summer already present in the previous version in which constant neutral drag coefficients were used. The ice strength parameterization used in the model rheology is found to affect the simulated ice drift significantly. Introducing modifications to the ice strength formulation and the empirical parameters helped alleviate the ice velocity bias.

Differing Impacts of Black Carbon and Sulfate Aerosols on Global Precipitation and the ITCZ Location via Atmosphere and Ocean Energy Perturbations

AbstractThis study explores the effects of black carbon (BC) and sulfate (SO4) on global and tropical precipitation with a climate model. Results show that BC causes a decrease in global annual mean precipitation, consisting of a large negative tendency of a fast precipitation response scaling with instantaneous atmospheric absorption and a small positive tendency of a slow precipitation response scaling with the BC-caused global warming. SO4 also causes a decrease in global annual mean precipitation, which is dominated by a slow precipitation response corresponding to the surface cooling caused by SO4. BC causes a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), mainly through a fast precipitation response, whereas SO4 causes a southward shift of the ITCZ through a slow precipitation response. The displacements of the ITCZ caused by BC and SO4 are found to linearly correlate with the corresponding changes in cross-equatorial heat transport in the atmosphere, with a regression coefficient of about −3° PW−1, implying that the ITCZ shifts occur as manifestations of the atmospheric cross-equatorial heat transport changes in response to the BC and SO4 forcings. The atmospheric cross-equatorial heat transport anomaly caused by BC is basically driven by the BC-induced interhemispheric contrast in instantaneous atmospheric absorption, whereas the atmospheric cross-equatorial heat transport anomaly caused by SO4 is mostly attributable to the response of evaporation. It is found that a slab-ocean model exaggerates the cross-equatorial heat transport response in the atmosphere and the ITCZ shift both for BC and SO4, as compared with an ocean-coupled model. This underscores the importance of using an ocean-coupled model in modeling studies of the tropical climate response to aerosols.

Improving Arctic sea ice seasonal outlook by ensemble prediction using an ice-ocean model

An ensemble based Sea Ice Seasonal Prediction System (SISPS) is configured towards operationally predicting the Arctic summer sea ice conditions. SISPS runs as a pan-Arctic sea ice-ocean coupled model based on Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm). A 4-month hindcast is carried out by SISPS starting from May 25, 2016. The sea ice-ocean initial fields for each ensemble member are from corresponding restart files from an ensemble data assimilation system that assimilates near-real-time Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS) sea ice concentration, Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and CryoSat-2 ice thickness. An ensemble of 11 time lagged operational atmospheric forcing from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climate forecast system model version 2 (CFSv2) is used to drive the ice-ocean model. Comparing with the satellite based sea ice observations and reanalysis data, the SISPS prediction shows good agreement in the evolution of sea ice extent and thickness, and performs much better than the CFSv2 operational sea ice prediction. This can be largely attributed to the initial conditions that we used in assimilating the SMOS and CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness data, thereafter reduces the initial model bias in the basin wide sea ice thickness, while in CFSv2 there is no sea ice thickness assimilation. Furthermore, comparisons with sea ice predictions driven by deterministic forcings demonstrate the importance of employing an ensemble approach to capture the large prediction uncertainty in Arctic summer. The sensitivity experiments also show that the sea ice thickness initialization that has a long-term memory plays a more important role than sea ice concentration and sea ice extent initialization on seasonal sea ice prediction. This study shows a good potential to implement Arctic sea ice seasonal prediction using the current configuration of ensemble system.