Coupled Chemistry Climate Model Simulations Research Articles

Persistence of flare-driven atmospheric chemistry on rocky habitable zone worlds

Low-mass stars show evidence of vigorous magnetic activity in the form of large flares and coronal mass ejections. Such space weather events may have important ramifications for the habitability and observational fingerprints of exoplanetary atmospheres. Here, using a suite of three-dimensional coupled chemistry–climate model simulations, we explore effects of time-dependent stellar activity on rocky planet atmospheres orbiting G, K and M dwarf stars. We employ observed data from the MUSCLES campaign and the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite and test a range of rotation period, magnetic field strength and flare frequency assumptions. We find that recurring flares drive the atmospheres of planets around K and M dwarfs into chemical equilibria that substantially deviate from their pre-flare regimes, whereas the atmospheres of G dwarf planets quickly return to their baseline states. Interestingly, simulated O2-poor and O2-rich atmospheres experiencing flares produce similar mesospheric nitric oxide abundances, suggesting that stellar flares can highlight otherwise undetectable chemical species. Applying a radiative transfer model to our chemistry–climate model results, we find that flare-driven transmission features of bio-indicating chemical species, such as nitrogen dioxide, nitrous oxide and nitric acid, show particular promise for detection by future instruments.

Global ozone depletion and increase of UV radiation caused by pre-industrial tropical volcanic eruptions

Large explosive tropical volcanic eruptions inject high amounts of gases into the stratosphere, where they disperse globally through the large-scale meridional circulation. There is now increasing observational evidence that volcanic halogens can reach the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Here, we present the first study that combines measurement-based data of sulfur, chlorine and bromine releases from tropical volcanic eruptions with complex coupled chemistry climate model simulations taking radiative-dynamical-chemical feedbacks into account. Halogen model input parameters represent a size-time-region-wide average for the Central American eruptions over the last 200 ka ensuring a comprehensive perspective. The simulations reveal global, long-lasting impact on the ozone layer affecting atmospheric composition and circulation for a decade. Column ozone drops below 220 DU (ozone hole conditions) in the tropics, Arctic and Antarctica, increasing biologically active UV by 80 to 400%. Our model results could potentially be validated using high-resolution proxies from ice cores and pollen records.

Chemistry climate model simulations of the effect of the 27 day solar rotational cycle on ozone

[1] The results from two simulations with the coupled chemistry climate model (CCM) ECHAM5/MESSy (EMAC-FUB) are analyzed for the effect of solar variability at the 27 day rotational time scale on ozone. One simulation is forced with constant spectral irradiances at the top of the atmosphere and the other one with daily varying irradiances using data of 1 year for solar maximum conditions. Consistent changes are applied to the photolysis scheme of the model. The model results show the main features of observed correlations between ozone and solar irradiance variability with a maximum positive correlation in the upper stratosphere and an anticorrelation in the mesosphere. The relative sensitivity of upper stratospheric ozone to changes in the solar ultraviolet flux is estimated to be 0.3 to 0.4% per 1% change in 205 nm flux. During periods of strong 27 day variability, a similar upper stratospheric ozone sensitivity is derived. However, when the daily solar irradiance variability is weak and dominated by the 13.5 day period, the ozone sensitivity is reduced in the subtropics. The modeled temperature response is consistent with the ozone signal. When averaged over one rotational cycle, the ozone and temperature response to a neglect of the 27 day cycle is weak and statistically insignificant in the stratosphere but of nonnegligible magnitude and statistically significant in the equatorial mesosphere. Our results suggest that ignoring daily solar flux variations on the 27 day time scale in transient CCM simulations does not lead to a significant degradation of the time mean ozone response in the stratosphere, while in the tropical mesosphere, significant errors of up to 3% may occur. This result does not exclude potential additional effects of 27 day solar cycle variability on stratospheric dynamics in winter which were, however, not the subject of this study.

Coupled chemistry climate model simulations of stratospheric temperatures and their trends for the recent past

Temperature results from multi‐decadal simulations of coupled chemistry climate models for the recent past are analyzed using multi‐linear regression including a trend, solar cycle, lower stratospheric tropical wind, and volcanic aerosol terms. The climatology of the models for recent years is in good agreement with observations for the troposphere but the model results diverge from each other and from observations in the stratosphere. Overall, the models agree better with observations than in previous assessments, primarily because of corrections in the observed temperatures. The annually averaged global and polar temperature trends simulated by the models are generally in agreement with revised satellite observations and radiosonde data over much of their altitude range. In the global average, the model trends underpredict the radiosonde data slightly at the top of the observed range. Over the Antarctic some models underpredict the temperature trend in the lower stratosphere, while others overpredict the trends.

Understanding the Changes of Stratospheric Water Vapor in Coupled Chemistry–Climate Model Simulations

Past and future climate simulations from the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry–Climate Model (GEOS CCM), with specified boundary conditions for sea surface temperature, sea ice, and trace gas emissions, have been analyzed to assess trends and possible causes of changes in stratospheric water vapor. The simulated distribution of stratospheric water vapor in the 1990s compares well with observations. Changes in the cold point temperatures near the tropical tropopause can explain differences in entry stratospheric water vapor. The average saturation mixing ratio of a 20° latitude by 15° longitude region surrounding the minimum tropical saturation mixing ratio is shown to be a useful diagnostic for entry stratospheric water vapor and does an excellent job reconstructing the annual average entry stratospheric water vapor over the period 1950–2100. The simulated stratospheric water vapor increases over the 50 yr between 1950 and 2000, primarily because of changes in methane concentrations, offset by a slight decrease in tropical cold point temperatures. Stratospheric water vapor is predicted to continue to increase over the twenty-first century, with increasing methane concentrations causing the majority of the trend to midcentury. Small increases in cold point temperature cause increases in the entry water vapor throughout the twenty-first century. The increasing trend in future water vapor is tempered by a decreasing contribution of methane oxidation owing to cooling stratospheric temperatures and by increased tropical upwelling, leading to a near-zero trend for the last 30 yr of the twenty-first century.

Coupled chemistry climate model simulations of the solar cycle in ozone and temperature

The 11‐year solar cycles in ozone and temperature are examined using new simulations of coupled chemistry climate models. The results show a secondary maximum in stratospheric tropical ozone, in agreement with satellite observations and in contrast with most previously published simulations. The mean model response varies by up to about 2.5% in ozone and 0.8 K in temperature during a typical solar cycle, at the lower end of the observed ranges of peak responses. Neither the upper atmospheric effects of energetic particles nor the presence of the quasi biennial oscillation is necessary to simulate the lower stratospheric response in the observed low latitude ozone concentration. Comparisons are also made between model simulations and observed total column ozone. As in previous studies, the model simulations agree well with observations. For those models which cover the full temporal range 1960–2005, the ozone solar signal below 50 hPa changes substantially from the first two solar cycles to the last two solar cycles. Further investigation suggests that this difference is due to an aliasing between the sea surface temperatures and the solar cycle during the first part of the period. The relationship between these results and the overall structure in the tropical solar ozone response is discussed. Further understanding of solar processes requires improvement in the observations of the vertically varying and column integrated ozone.

The Strength of the Brewer–Dobson Circulation in a Changing Climate: Coupled Chemistry–Climate Model Simulations

Abstract The strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) in a changing climate is studied using multidecadal simulations covering the 1960–2100 period with a coupled chemistry–climate model, to examine the seasonality of the change of the BDC. The model simulates an intensification of the BDC in both the past (1960–2004) and future (2005–2100) climate, but the seasonal cycle is different. In the past climate simulation, nearly half of the tropical upward mass flux increase occurs in December–February, whereas in the future climate simulation the enhancement of the BDC is uniformly distributed in each of the four seasons. A downward control analysis implies that this different seasonality is caused mainly by the behavior of the Southern Hemisphere planetary wave forcing, which exhibits a very different long-term trend during solstice seasons in the past and future. The Southern Hemisphere summer planetary wave activity is investigated in detail, and its evolution is found to be closely related to ozone depletion and recovery. In the model results for the past, about 60% of the lower-stratospheric mass flux increase is caused by ozone depletion, but because of model ozone trend biases, the atmospheric effect was likely smaller than this. The remaining fraction of the mass flux increase is attributed primarily to greenhouse gas increase. The downward control analysis also reveals that orographic gravity waves contribute significantly to the increase of downward mass flux in the Northern Hemisphere winter lower stratosphere.

Coupled chemistry–climate model simulations for the period 1980 to 2020: Ozone depletion and the start of ozone recovery

AbstractTwo simulations of a coupled chemistry–climate model are completed for the period 1980 to 2020, covering the recent past during which extensive satellite ozone and temperature data exist, and covering the near future when ozone levels are expected to begin to recover. In the first simulation, Rayleigh friction is used to decelerate the polar night jet. In the second simulation, a parametrized spectral gravity‐wave forcing scheme is included. This has the effect of considerably reducing the model temperature bias in the polar regions and weakening the polar night jet. In the simulations the concentrations of chlorine, bromine and the well‐mixed greenhouse gas concentrations are specified in accordance with past observations and future projected values. The calculated trends in temperature and ozone in the two runs are similar, indicating that model internal variability does not have a significant impact and suggesting that the trends arise largely from changes in external parameters. Typically, after about the year 2000, the trend in the modelled annually averaged ozone changed from a decrease to a small increase. The change was found to be statistically significant in the upper stratosphere and in the lower stratosphere over Antarctica, which are the regions most affected by halogen chemistry. Globally averaged temperature results suggest that the best place to look for future atmospheric change is in the upper stratosphere. Decadally averaged statistics are used to estimate the timing of the start of recovery of total ozone. The simulations indicate no significant further ozone loss from the current atmosphere with minima typically occurring in the years from 2000 to 2005, except in the spring Arctic where ozone values continued to decrease slowly until the end of the integrations. One major problem with the detection of the start of ozone recovery, is that the concentrations of halogens are expected to reduce only slowly from their peak value. Hence, no substantial recovery is simulated before the year 2020. The difficulty in detecting the start of ozone recovery suggests the need to continue the model simulations until the second half of this century which would also help to establish the timing of complete ozone recovery. © Crown copyright, 2003. Royal Meteorological Society