Country's Net Foreign Asset Research Articles

The valuation channel of external adjustment

International financial integration has greatly increased the scope for changes in a country's net foreign asset position through the “valuation channel” of external adjustment, namely, capital gains and losses on the country's external assets and liabilities. We examine this valuation channel theoretically in a dynamic equilibrium portfolio model with international trade in equity that encompasses complete and incomplete asset market scenarios. By separating asset prices and quantities in the definition of net foreign assets, we can characterize the first-order dynamics of both valuation effects and net foreign equity holdings. First-order excess returns are unanticipated and i.i.d. in our model, but capital gains and losses on equity positions feature persistent, anticipated dynamics in response to productivity shocks. The separation of prices and quantities in net foreign assets also enables us to characterize fully the role of capital gains and losses versus the current account in the dynamics of macroeconomic aggregates. Specifically, we disentangle the roles of excess returns, capital gains, and portfolio adjustment for consumption risk sharing when financial markets are incomplete, showing how these different channels contribute to dampening (or amplifying) the impact response of the cross-country consumption differential to shocks and to keeping it constant in subsequent periods.

Valuation effects with transitory and trend productivity shocks

Changes in asset prices of a country's foreign assets and liabilities (“valuation effects”) are commonly thought of as stabilizing: they counteract current account movements and mitigate the impact of the current account on the country's net foreign asset (NFA) position. This paper shows that whether valuation effects are stabilizing or not depends critically on the nature of the underlying productivity shocks. In response to transitory shocks, valuation effects are stabilizing; but in response to trend shocks, such effects amplify the impact of the current account on NFA position. These contrasting effects arise because optimally smoothing consumers respond differently to a transitory shock than to a trend shock to income. This theoretical result finds empirical support with G7 countries' data, and is illustrated by the pattern of external imbalances between the U.S. and other G7 countries since the 1990s.

Macroeconomic Effects of Changes in Tourism Demand: A Simple Dynamic Model

This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of an increase in tourism demand due both to an exogenous increase in foreigners' income and to tourism marketing activities in a small country which specializes in tourism production. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model, the authors show that an increase in tourism demand leads to an increase in the relative price of domestically produced tourism services and increases tourism production. Because the dynamic transition is characterized by capital accumulation and a current account deficit, the economy ends up with a higher capital stock but a lower stock of net foreign assets. Higher foreign income has a welfare-increasing effect, whereas an increase in marketing expenditures has ambiguous effects on residents' consumption and welfare. The authors also discuss the effects of a temporary demand stimulus, which is nonetheless shown to have permanent effects on the country's net foreign asset position and agents' consumption.

The Valuation Channel of External Adjustment

International financial integration has greatly increased the scope for changes in a country's net foreign asset position through the valuation channel, namely capital gains and losses on external assets and liabilities. We examine this valuation channel in a dynamic equilibrium portfolio model with international trade in equity. By separating asset prices and quantities, we can characterize the first-order dynamics of valuation effects and the current account in macroeconomic dynamics. Specifically, we disentangle the roles of excess returns, capital gains, and portfolio adjustment for consumption risk sharing when financial markets are incomplete.

The Valuation Channel of External Adjustment

Ongoing international financial integration has greatly increased foreign asset holdings across countries, enhancing the scope for a "valuation channel" of external adjustment (i.e., the changes in a country's net foreign asset position due to exchange rate and asset price changes). We examine this channel of adjustment in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with international equity trading in incomplete asset markets. We show that the risk-sharing properties of international equity trading are tied to the distribution of income between labor income and profits when equities are defined as claims to firm profits in a production economy. For a given level of international financial integration (measured by the size of gross foreign asset positions), the quantitative importance of the valuation channel of external adjustment depends on features of the international transmission mechanism such as the size of financial frictions, substitutability across goods, and the persistence of shocks. Finally, moving from less to more international financial integration, risk sharing through asset markets increases, and valuation changes are larger, but their relative importance in net foreign asset dynamics is smaller.

International Investment Positions and Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Dynamic Panel Analysis

In this paper we revisit medium- to long-run exchange rate determination, focusing on the role of international investment positions. To do so, we develop a new econometric framework accounting for conditional long-run homogeneity in heterogeneous dynamic panel data models. In particular, in our model the long-run relationship between effective exchange rates and domestic as well as weighted foreign prices is a homogeneous function of a country's international investment position. We find rather strong support for purchasing power parity in environments of limited negative net foreign asset to GDP positions, but not outside such environments. We thus argue that the purchasing power parity hypothesis holds conditionally, but not unconditionally, and that international investment positions are an essential component to characterizing this conditionality. Finally, we adduce evidence that whether deterioration of a country's net foreign asset to GDP position leads to a depreciation of that country's effective exchange rate depends on its rate of inflation relative to the rate of inflation abroad as well as its exposure to global shocks.

Current Accounts, Net Foreign Assets and the Implications of Cyclical Factors

Intertemporal models of the current account suggest that temporary income shocks are fully reflected in a country's net foreign asset position, so that agents invest abroad any savings generated by a positive income shock. On the other hand, a stylised fact in international economics is that there is a disproportionately large share of domestic assets in investors' portfolios. If investment risk is high and diminishing returns are weak, then savings from temporary income shocks may, in fact, be invested according to the existing portfolio composition. This implies that any bias in portfolios persists after a temporary shock. We estimate a model that explicitly allows for the possibility that the impact of initial portfolio allocation, proxied using net foreign assets, may differ, depending on whether shocks are permanent or temporary. Our results, from a panel of 18 OECD countries, suggest that initial portfolio allocation affects current account behaviour following temporary, but not permanent, shocks. These results are therefore compatible with the 'new rule'.

HABITS AND DURABILITY IN CONSUMPTION AND THE EFFECTS OF EXCHANGE RATE POLICIES

A model in which consumption exhibits durability, and habits develop over the flow of services provided by them, is used to study the effects of exchange rate policies. The results of recent studies with regard to the effects of exchange rate policies are brought closer to some recent empirical findings. It is shown that, after a change in the rate of devaluation, the adjustment of consumption, real money holdings, and the country's net foreign asset position will very likely be non-monotonic.

External wealth, the trade balance, and the real exchange rate

We examine the link between the net foreign asset position, the trade balance and the real exchange rate. In particular, we decompose the impact of a country's net foreign asset position (‘external wealth’) on its long-run real exchange rate into two mechanisms: the relation between external wealth and the trade balance; and, holding fixed other determinants, a negative relation between the trade balance and the real exchange rate. We also provide additional evidence that the relative price of nontradables is an important channel linking the trade balance and the real exchange rate.

External Wealth, the Trade Balance, and the Real Exchange Rate

We examine the link between the net foreign asset position, the trade balance and the real exchange rate. In particular, we decompose the impact of a country's net foreign asset position ('external wealth') on its long-run real exchange rate into two mechanisms: the relation between wealth and the trade balance; and, holding fixed other determinants, a negative relation between the trade balance and the real exchange rate. We also provide additional evidence that the relative price of nontradables is an important channel linking the trade balance and the real exchange rate.

External Wealth, the Trade Balance, and the Real Exchange Rate

This paper examines the link between the net foreign asset position, the trade balance and the real exchange rate. In particular, it decomposes the impact of a country's net foreign asset position (external wealth) on its long-run real exchange rate into two mechanisms: the relation between external wealth and the trade balance; and, holding other determinants fixed, a relation between the trade balance and the real exchange rate. It also provides additional evidence that the relative price of nontradables is an important channel linking the trade balance and the real exchange rate.

Tax reform and external balance

This paper examines the effect of a transformation from capital taxation to consumption in an open economy. With the residential capital tax rate being endogenous, an increase in the domestic consumption tax rate decreases the interest rate, increases capital accumulation, and increases the domestic country's net foreign asset holdings and trade surplus. With the territorial capital tax rate being endogenous, an increase in the domestic consumption tax rate may either increase or decrease the domestic country's interest rate, net foreign asset holdings and trade surplus, depending on the interest elasticity of capital demand.

Taxing Consumption in an Open Economy

This article examines the effects of consumption taxation on capital accumulation, net foreign asset holdings, the trade balance, and welfare in a two-country overlap ping generations model. Government finances its lump-sum transfers by taxing consumption. An increase in the domestic consumption tax rate decreases the real interest rate and increases the capital-labor ratio and the wage rate in both countries. An increase in the domestic consumption tax rate raises the domestic country's net foreign asset holdings and trade surplus but may either increase or reduce the welfare of the representative domestic individual.

Taxation and inflation: A new explanation for capital flows

In a world of mobile capital, the current system of taxation implies that the after-tax cost of capital and return to saving in each country are negatively correlated with the rate of inflation. Thus a country's net foreign asset position ought to be negatively correlated with its long-run inflation rate. The magnitude of these effects is shown to be potentially large. For OECD countries, cross-section and time-series regressions confirm that inflation rates are good predictors of net foreign assets. The existing distribution of net foreign assets may therefore largely reflect tax distortions.

Taxation and Inflation: A New Explanation for Current Account Imbalances

In a world of mobile capital, the current system of nominal interest taxation implies that the cost of capital and the return to saving in each country are strongly and negatively correlated with the rate of inflation. It follows that a country's net foreign asset position (and its current account balance) ought to be negatively correlated with its inflation rate. The magnitude of these effects is shown to be large, both theoretically and empirically. For OECD countries, cross-sectional regressions confirm that inflation rates are good predictors of current accounts, even after controlling for business cycles and government budget deficits. These results imply that existing current account imbalances largely reflect tax distortions rather than an optimal allocation of world savings.