Counterintuitive Direction Research Articles

Chasing Homer by László Krasznahorkai

Reviewed by: Chasing Homer by László Krasznahorkai Elaine Margolin László Krasznahorkai Chasing Homer Trans. John Batki. New York. New Directions. 2021. 91 pages. HUNGARIAN AUTHOR László Krasznahorkai is gifted with seductive powers that force us to go wherever he goes; we simply cannot negate him. In Chasing Homer, his anxious first-person narrator careens at breakneck speed through the vastness of Europe’s haunted spaces. We wonder why he is running so fast and from what. We know nothing about him; not his name, or whether he is a parent or father or husband or someone’s lover, or even if he is a good or decent man. He offers no confessions. Yet in a few short paragraphs we are entranced by the lusciousness and foreignness of his impossibly long sentences, which are unencumbered by any internal pressure to come to an end. His suffering becomes ours. We understand he’s under attack—by men who have deemed him unworthy to live—but he offers no clues as to why they want him dead. What was his transgression? Was there one? We aren’t really certain other than knowing that they simply want him to die. It’s not that we are naïve. We know that this last century has seen millions of men and women die for no reason at all; so many at the death camps in Europe, but Krasznahorkai, or rather his unnamed alter ego, never speaks of the Holocaust or any other atrocity directly. He seems disgusted by man’s barbarity to man in all its reincarnations. He describes for us proudly how he has survived this long in intricate passages telling us about the ingenious ways he slips in and out of a crowd without being noticed, or how he is able to remain hidden in the hull of a boat for days at a time without being detected. Krasznahorkai’s protagonist focuses his intention on surviving, which requires him to keep moving, often in counterintuitive directions, to throw off those chasing him. He finds remaining constantly vigilant exhausting. We don’t sense he yearns for any human contact, and he never reminisces about someone he misses from his past. It seems the fight to stay alive has extinguished all other preoccupations. One might think this would distance us from him, but the unfathomable thing is his ability to create in us strong feelings for him despite his obliviousness. We feel his agony and want to help, but he continues to ignore us. His narrative is enhanced by melancholy portraits by German painter Max Neumann that are for the most part indecipherable. The first one we see is a simple line drawing of a man with his eyes blacked out, and another painting shows three men in shadow seemingly scanning an interminable landscape. Another shows a man with a bat seemingly preparing to defend himself against a gang of pursuers whose faces are shielded from view. The book is also accompanied by the madly percussive music of Szilveszter Miklós, made available to the reader by QR codes, which adds to the apocalyptic tension that ripples through his prose. I recall only one time when his voice possessed yearning for a past now long gone. “I never received any training in the skills my life now depends on,” he writes; “my education was about different things entirely. I’d been taught Old High German and Ancient Persian and Latin and Hebrew, and they’d instructed me in Mandarin and Japanese of the Heian era.” We wonder why he is telling us this. Do we hear the faintest drops of some sort of latent elitism for an earlier time? We aren’t certain. All that is clear is he remembers this time with a happiness that is no longer present and we wonder if this joy had something to do with providing for him some moral guidance in a world that already confused him. It occurs to the reader that his prose is strangely silent with regard to moral reckonings of any kind. The author shies away from philosophical assertions, choosing instead to angrily riff on the idiocy of mice and his...

Why and how to apply Weber's Law to coevolution and mimicry.

In mimicry systems, receivers discriminate between the stimuli of models and mimics. Weber's Law of proportional processing states that receiver discrimination is based on proportional, not absolute, differences between stimuli. Weber's Law operates in a variety of taxa and modalities, yet it has largely been ignored in the context of mimicry, despite its potential relevance to whether receivers can discriminate models from mimics. Specifically, Weber's Law implies that for a given difference in stimulus magnitude between a model and mimic, as stimulus magnitudes increase, the mimic will be less discriminable from their model. This implies that mimics should benefit when stimulus magnitudes are high, and that high stimulus magnitudes will reduce selection for mimetic fidelity. Whether models benefit from high stimulus magnitudes depends on whether mimicry is honest or deceptive. We present four testable predictions about evolutionary trajectories of models and mimics based on this logic. We then provide a framework for testing whether receiver discrimination adheres to Weber's Law and illustrate it using coevolutionary examples and case studies from avian brood parasitism. We conclude that, when studying mimicry systems, researchers should consider whether receiver perception conforms to Weber's Law, because it could drive stimulus evolution in counterintuitive directions.

Analysis of Anomalous Dynamic Responses of Fiber Metal Laminates Under Pulse Loading

Composed of metallic layers and composite plies, fiber metal laminates (FMLs) combine inherent advantages of metals and composites. The phenomenon of anomalous response behavior, in which the permanent deformation is in the opposite direction to the incoming pressure wave, has been discovered in dynamic responses of monolithic plate subjected to impulsive loading. In this study, dynamic responses of FML plates of various configurations are examined and compared against the responses of a monolithic plate using finite element analysis. It is found that under the load condition in which an anomalous dynamic behavior of an aluminum plate is observed, FMLs oscillate a few cycles before resting on permanent deformation, and the laminate thickness strongly affects the final deflection, which could be in the counter-intuitive direction or near the initial position of zero deflection depending on configuration and specification of FMLs. In addition, interaction of damage accumulation with deflection responses is investigated. The findings of this study can be useful for optimal design of FMLs intended for usage under extreme loadings.

Is Anything Predictable in Market-Based Surprises?

We build a framework to forecast out-of-sample any asset price movement in a tight window around the release of any macroeconomic indicator. As a case study, we examine the predictability of the EUR/USD exchange rate conditional on the market-based surprise in the first 60 min after the release of the United States Non-Farm Payrolls and ISM manufacturing index. We empirically investigate whether the findings of the literature obtained using an in-sample approach also hold in a real-time out-of-sample exercise. We demonstrate that the main econometric models lose accuracy in an out-of-sample application and cannot outperform a naive model. Additionally, we highlight that the main reason is the counterintuitive direction of a large number of small asset price movements around the release. Finally, we show that clustering the responses to the market-based surprises by their size improves the predictability, reconciling the role given by the literature to nonlinearities.

Risk Factor Reversal in Studies of Infectious Disease: Making Counterintuitive Results Intuitive Again.

A previously published study reported the seemingly paradoxical finding that men who have sex with men status was strongly protective and recent sexual abstinence strongly deleterious in relation to mortality prognosis. We explain why these results are entirely logical and that the counterintuitive direction of the effects derives from the comparison group implied by the study design.

From menarche to menopause: A population-based assessment of water, sanitation, and hygiene risk factors for reproductive tract infection symptoms over life stages in rural girls and women in India.

Women face greater challenges than men in accessing water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) resources to address their daily needs, and may respond to these challenges by adopting unsafe practices that increase the risk of reproductive tract infections (RTIs). WASH practices may change as women transition through socially-defined life stage experiences, like marriage and pregnancy. Thus, the relationship between WASH practices and RTIs might vary across female reproductive life stages. This cross-sectional study assessed the relationship between WASH exposures and self-reported RTI symptoms in 3,952 girls and women from two rural districts in India, and tested whether social exposures represented by reproductive life stage was an effect modifier of associations. In fully adjusted models, RTI symptoms were less common in women using a latrine without water for defecation versus open defecation (Odds Ratio (OR) = 0.69; Confidence Interval (CI) = 0.48, 0.98) and those walking shorter distances to a bathing location (OR = 0.79, CI = 0.63, 0.99), but there was no association between using a latrine with a water source and RTIs versus open defecation (OR = 1.09; CI = 0.69, 1.72). Unexpectedly, RTI symptoms were more common for women bathing daily with soap (OR = 6.55, CI = 3.60, 11.94) and for women washing their hands after defecation with soap (OR = 10.27; CI = 5.53, 19.08) or ash/soil/mud (OR = 6.02; CI = 3.07, 11.77) versus water only or no hand washing. WASH practices of girls and women varied across reproductive life stages, but the associations between WASH practices and RTI symptoms were not moderated by or confounded by life stage status. This study provides new evidence that WASH access and practices are associated with self-reported reproductive tract infection symptoms in rural Indian girls and women from different reproductive life stages. However, the counterintuitive directions of effect for soap use highlights that causality and mechanisms of effect cannot be inferred from this study design. Future research is needed to understand whether improvements in water and sanitation access could improve the practice of safe hygiene behaviors and reduce the global burden of RTIs in women.

How does space affect the allocation of the EU Rural Development Policy expenditure? A spatial econometric assessment

This article focuses on the main drivers of the distribution of the Rural Development Policy expenditure throughout the European Union (EU). Ex-post funds distribution across EU NUTS3 regions is considered. Three effects are considered as major drivers: a ‘country effect’; a ‘rural effect’ (i.e. the more rural a region the larger the amount of support); a ‘pure spatial effect’ (i.e. the influence of bordering regions and of their degree of rurality). These effects are estimated adopting alternative spatial model specifications: Spatial Durbin Model, Spatial Error Model, Spatial AutoRegressive Model and Spatial Lag of X Model. Results slightly differ across alternative specifications and definitions of rurality, but prevalent evidence suggests that rurality matters in a counterintuitive direction while also spatial spillovers play a role.

Political violence, health, and coping among Palestinian women in the West Bank.

Political violence poses a considerable threat to the health of individuals. Protective factors, however, may help people to build resilience in the face of political violence. This study examined the influence of lifetime and past 30-day experiences of political violence on the mental and physical health of adult Palestinian women from the West Bank (N=122). Two hypotheses were examined: (a) Reports of political violence exposure would be related to reports of poorer physical and mental health and (b) several coping variables (proactive coping; self-reliance; reliance on political, family, and religious support; and political or civic engagement) would function as moderators of the effects of political violence, buffering or weakening its effects on physical and mental health outcomes. Both lifetime and past 30-day measures of political violence were positively correlated with posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms. Proactive coping, reliance on self, and political or civic engagement significantly interacted with political violence to affect health in a counterintuitive direction; those with higher scores on these more internalized and individualistic coping strategies demonstrated worse health as political violence increased. Reliance on religious support, and, in particular, support from and participation in activities of religious institutions, emerged as a significant protective factor. Results underscore the importance of looking not only at whether political violence affects health, but also at how the relationships between political violence and health might occur, including the potential protective influence of resources within people's social environments.

Prey-abundance affects zooplankton assimilation efficiency and the outcome of biogeochemical models

Aquatic biogeochemical models that include zooplankton feeding on phytoplankton assess a range of ecologically important issues. Such models generally assume assimilation efficiency (e) to be invariant with prey abundance. We first review the literature and make a strong case for recognising and quantifying the general dependence of e on prey abundance. Then, using two standard, fundamental multi-trophic models (the Rosenzweig–MacArthur, RM, predator–prey couplet and the nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton, NPZ, models) we explore how varying e with prey abundance alters the outcome of models. Incorporating variable e into both models altered their dynamics, potentially in important and counterintuitive directions. We suggest there is now a need for further empirical consideration of the extent to which zooplankton e changes with phytoplankton abundance, specifically focusing on the shape of this response, and then for continued assessment of the impact of variable e on model dynamics.

Fractional Brownian motors and stochastic resonance

We study fluctuating tilt Brownian ratchets based on fractional subdiffusion in sticky viscoelastic media characterized by a power law memory kernel. Unlike the normal diffusion case, the rectification effect vanishes in the adiabatically slow modulation limit and optimizes in a driving frequency range. It is shown also that the anomalous rectification effect is maximal (stochastic resonance effect) at optimal temperature and can be of surprisingly good quality. Moreover, subdiffusive current can flow in the counterintuitive direction upon a change of temperature or driving frequency. The dependence of anomalous transport on load exhibits a remarkably simple universality.

EParticipation research: Moving characterization forward (2006–2011)

Research on the use of information technology to support democratic decision-making (eParticipation) is experiencing ongoing growth, stimulated by an increasing attention from both practitioner and research communities. This study provides the first longitudinal analysis of the development of the eParticipation field based on a shared framework, capturing the directions that the research field of eParticipation is taking in recent developments. Drawing on a literature search covering the period from April 2006 to March 2011, this study identifies, analyzes, and classifies 122 research articles within the categories of eParticipation actors, activities, contextual factors, effects, evaluation, and methods. Findings show that the field has a high level of dynamism, as foci on eParticipation activities, contextual factors, and effects have shifted in time, sometimes in counterintuitive directions. The study also suggests new analytical categories of research. Drawing on the analysis, inputs for a research agenda are suggested. These include the need to move beyond a technological perspective, encouraging the ongoing shift of research focus from government to citizens and other stakeholders, and the need to make eParticipation research methods more participatory in nature. ► I analyze 122 research articles on eParticipation published in the period 2006–2011. ► I provide a longitudinal view of the shifts in eParticipation research foci. ► I highlight evidence-based inputs for a revised eParticipation research agenda.

Risk, Recidivism, and (Re)habilitation

Project Greenlight (GL) was an innovative and intensive prison-based intervention delivered to inmates during the 8-week period immediately prior to their release from prison. Using a relatively rigorous research design, evaluators reported significant negative effects associated with the treatment at one year after release. We reassess the GL intervention over a longer follow-up period and focus on differences by risk level. Findings indicate that although the bulk of the negative effects dissipate compared with one control group, significant negative effects remain when compared with a second. More importantly, however, we find that program effects are differentially distributed by risk level in a counterintuitive direction.

Enterprise Risk Management Practices in Slovenia and Their Impact on Performance

Article deals with perceived corporate risk management determinants of Slovene firms. There are quite some theoretical explanations of reasonable behavior of corporate financial managers in financial literature. I briefly introduce maximization of wealth theory (Smith and Stulz, 1985; Froot, Scharfstein and Stein, 1993) and agency theory (Tufano, 1998) and point to different techniques firms can use to better decrease various exposures. After the introduction reach empirics should provide deeper insights into this challenging topic. In the first empirical part I follow some aspects of well-cited article of Graham and Harvey (2001) dealing with modern corporate finance practices of US firms. Paper reveals the determinants of different types of risk Slovene firms consider as crucial. In the second empirical part, it tests hypotheses about performance of 137 surveyed Slovene firms differentiated by risk management practices. Those have been uniquely profiled using the answers acquired in the survey of corporate finance practices of Slovene Institute of Auditors and Research Center of Faculty of Economics. Generally, surveyed Slovene firms do not frequently use CAPM as a common base for risk premium determination. Differences are not significant between groups of small and large firms. However, large surveyed firms pay more attention to information about exchange rate movements, which also holds true in the case of the firms recording substantial proportion of foreign sales. Analysis sheds light on the degree of leverage and firms' behavior. Levels of debt are dependent upon degree of operating leverage. However, total debt to a much lesser extent than long-term debt only. This effect comes at least to some extent to a surprise, since during transition short-term debt served as close substitute for long-term debt of Slovene firms and had being systematically rolled over. Relation is not significantly stronger by firms that are more aware of the need to employ risk management techniques. However, I argue that more risk aware firms show better financial performance, manage assets more efficiently, reach higher productivity and liquidity levels, and use more debt. That means Slovene corporate reality rather supports wealth maximization theory. What seems to be more of a puzzle are significant differences with counterintuitive direction by efficiency ratios mean comparisons. Firms with more sophistication in the area of risk management have lower total assets- and fixed assets turnover, and employ more assets per employee. Even though efficiency rises with risk awareness, many firms seem to be classified as most risk aware because of the type of assets. The reason in fact comes from the need of more capital-intense firms to better deal with risks.

On Column Profile Maps: An Analysis of Sharp Splits

Column profile maps (CPMs) have recently been shown to be a useful tool in the design of distillation operations, especially complex configurations. CPMs are essentially a family of composition trajectories for a column section in a distillation column. They have been shown to be topological transforms of residue curve maps, and are dependent on two main parameters: RΔ (generalized reflux) and XΔ (a pseudocomposition vector), which effectively fixes the net flow in a column section. This paper focuses on the interaction between these parameters for the special case of sharp splits. With the CPM technique it has been shown that sharp splits behave in a unique manner, due to a phenomenon termed as “node bumping”. In particular, it has been shown that it is possible to locate specific ranges of RΔ where one may drastically influence the movement of profiles in somewhat counterintuitive directions. Although this effect may not be useful in product producing column sections, it is shown how these unique phenom...

A Parametric Curve Analysis for the Risk-Return Tradeoff in an Agency Problem

This paper proposes a simple analysis for examining an agent’s optimal decisions in a principal-agency problem. Unlike the standard approach, the target firm’s expected return and risk are modeled as a parametric curve in terms of a critical business decision. A general condition is derived for characterizing how a risk-averse or risk-seeking agent may behave differently from a risk-neutral decision maker. This general theorem is applied to solve several examples that demonstrate the impacts of different types of uncertainty and illustrate several cases in which the agent may respond to incentive contracts in a counterintuitive direction.

Residential self-selection bias in the estimation of built environment effects on physical activity between adolescence and young adulthood

BackgroundBuilt environment research is dominated by cross-sectional designs, which are particularly vulnerable to residential self-selection bias resulting from health-related attitudes, neighborhood preferences, or other unmeasured characteristics related to both neighborhood choice and health-related outcomes.MethodsWe used cohort data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (United States; Wave I, 1994-95; Wave III, 2001-02; n = 12,701) and a time-varying geographic information system. Longitudinal relationships between moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) bouts and built and socioeconomic environment measures (landcover diversity, pay and public physical activity facilities per 10,000 population, street connectivity, median household income, and crime rate) from adolescence to young adulthood were estimated using random effects models (biased by unmeasured confounders) and fixed effects models (within-person estimator, which adjusts for unmeasured confounders that are stable over time).ResultsRandom effects models yielded null associations except for negative crime-MVPA associations [coefficient (95% CI): -0.056 (-0.083, -0.029) in males, -0.061 (-0.090, -0.033) in females]. After controlling for measured and time invariant unmeasured characteristics using within-person estimators, MVPA was higher with greater physical activity pay facilities in males [coefficient (95% CI): 0.024 (0.006, 0.042)], and lower with higher crime rates in males [coefficient (95% CI): -0.107 (-0.140, -0.075)] and females [coefficient (95% CI): -0.046 (-0.083, -0.009)]. Other associations were null or in the counter-intuitive direction.ConclusionsComparison of within-person estimates to estimates unadjusted for unmeasured characteristics suggest that residential self-selection can bias associations toward the null, as opposed to its typical characterization as a positive confounder. Differential environment-MVPA associations by residential relocation suggest that studies examining changes following residential relocation may be vulnerable to selection bias. The authors discuss complexities of adjusting for residential self-selection and residential relocation, particularly during the adolescent to young adult transition.

Coherent population transfer in four-level ladder systems by single frequency-chirped laser pulse

Adiabatic passage induced by a frequency-chirped laser pulse in four-level ladder systems is investigated. Two different strategies for efficient population transfer (intuitive and counterintuitive laser pulse) are analyzed. For the larger detuning, the four-level ladder system can be reduced to a two-level system with which we are familiar. For the smaller detuning, the main conditions for realization of population transfer are the following: the width of the transform-limited laser pulse envelope frequency spectrum (without chirp) must be smaller and the peak Rabi frequency of the pulse must be larger than the detuning ɛ21 and ɛ21 ∼ ɛ32 in the case of the three-photon resonance. With this laser pulse, it is possible to achieve complete population via the intermediate levels by three successive adiabatic passages. Complete inversion is also obtained by a counterintuitive direction of the frequency sweep.

Multiple Colonizations, In Situ Speciation, and Volcanism-Associated Stepping-Stone Dispersals Shaped the Phylogeography of the Macaronesian Red Fescues (Festuca L., Gramineae)

Whereas examples of insular speciation within the endemic-rich Macaronesian hotspot flora have been documented, the phylogeography of recently evolved plants in the region has received little attention. The Macaronesian red fescues constitute a narrow and recent radiation of four closely related diploid species distributed in the Canary Islands (F. agustinii), Madeira (F. jubata), and the Azores (F. francoi and F. petraea), with a single extant relative distributed in mainland southwest Europe (F. rivularis). Bayesian structure and priority consensus tree approaches and population spatial correlations between genetic, geographical, and dispersal distances were used to elucidate the phylogeographical patterns of these grasses. Independent versus related origins and dispersal versus isolation by distance (IBD) hypotheses were tested to explain the genetic differentiation of species and populations, respectively. Genetic structure was found to be geographically distributed among the archipelagos and the islands endemics. The high number of shared AFLP fragments in all four species suggests a recent single origin from a continental Pliocene ancestor. However, the strong allelic structure detected among the Canarian, Madeiran, and Azorean endemics and the significant standardized residual values obtained from structured Bayesian analysis for pairwise related origin hypotheses strongly supported the existence of three independent continental-oceanic colonization events. The Canarian F. agustinii, the Madeiran F. jubata, and the two sister F. francoi and F. petraea Azorean species likely evolved from different continental founders in their respective archipelagos. Despite the short span of time elapsed since colonization, the two sympatric Azorean species probably diverged in situ, following ecological adaptation, from a common ancestor that arrived from the near mainland. Simple dispersal hypotheses explained most of the genetic variation at the species level better than IBD models. The optimal dispersal model for F. agustinii was a bidirectional centripetal stepping-stone colonization pattern, an eastern-to-western volcanism-associated dispersion was favored for F. francoi, whereas for the recently derived F. petraea a counterintuitive direction of colonization (west-to-east) was suggested. The population-based phylogeographical trends deduced from our study could be used as predictive models for other Macaronesian plant endemics with similar distribution areas and dispersal abilities.

Impact of Orphanhood on Underweight Prevalence in Sub-Saharan Africa

In Africa, approximately 25 million people live with HIV/AIDS and 12 million children are orphaned. Although evidence indicates that orphans risk losing opportunities for adequate education, health care, and future employment, the immediate effects of orphanhood on child nutritional status remain poorly understood. This paper assesses the nutritional impact of orphanhood, with particular emphasis on taking account of various factors potentially confounding or masking these impacts. Child anthropometry and orphan status were examined in 23 Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys and Demographic and Health Surveys throughout sub-Saharan Africa, which were subsequently merged into larger, region-specific datasets (East, West, and Southern Africa). To compare orphans and nonorphans, linear regression and probit models were developed, taking account of orphan status and type, presence of a surviving parent in the household, household structure, child age and sex, urban versus rural residence, and current wealth status. Few differences emerged between orphans and nonorphans in controlled and uncontrolled comparisons, regardless of orphan type, presence of surviving parent, or household structure. Age differentials did confound nutritional comparisons, although in the counterintuitive direction, with orphans (who were 8 months older on average) becoming less malnourished when age differences were taken into account. Wealth did appear to be associated with orphanhood status, although it did not significantly confound nutritional comparisons. Orphans were not consistently more malnourished than nonorphans, even when potential confounding variables were examined. Since household wealth status is likely to change after becoming affected by HIV ruling out wealth as a potential confounder would require more detailed, prospective studies.

‘Just Deserts’: Race, Class and Distributive Justice in Post-Apartheid South Africa

This article examines how racial differences affect perceptions of distributive justice in post-apartheid South Africa. In ‘divided’ societies, citizens might be expected to discriminate on the basis of race or culture in assessing the justice of other citizens’ claims. South Africa is a prime example of a ‘divided’ society in which, in the past, legislation and racial elite culture combined in pervasive discrimination. Given the continued importance of race in daily life in South Africa, we might expect that attitudes about distributive justice would continue to be racialised, with people considering members of the same ‘racial group’ as themselves as being more deserving than members of other groups. But evidence from both national data-sets and a new data-set for Cape Town in particular suggests that race has complex and often counter-intuitive effects on perceptions of distributive justice. By some criteria, and some analytic techniques, people do not discriminate on the basis of race when assessing ‘just deserts’; by other criteria, and other analytic techniques, ‘just deserts’ appear still to be somewhat ‘coloured’ in post-apartheid South Africa. Overall, however, the evidence suggests that the effects of race are either weak or work in counter-intuitive directions. Rich and white Capetonians are certainly more generous in their views on redistribution than is generally assumed.