Cost Estimation Methodology Research Articles

Cost of a Healthy Diet: A Population-Representative Comparison of 3 Diet Cost Methods in Canada

BackgroundDifferent food price sources and dietary assessment tools may impact the estimation of diet costs and hamper our understanding of the relationship between diet costs and dietary intakes. ObjectivesWe aimed to investigate the effect of 3 diet cost derivation methods, with increasing numbers of food prices and geographic specificity, holding consistent the dietary assessment tool, on the estimation of diet costs overall and by food group. MethodsWe matched 24-h dietary recall data from the 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey-Nutrition (CCHS-N) to food price data from 3 Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) food price lists; national short list, national long list, and provincial long list. We compared the daily ($/day) and energy-adjusted ($/2000 kcal) diet costs overall and by food groups for the overall population (4+), children (4–18), and adults (19+). ResultsThe proportion of dietary intakes (grams) that were covered by CPI prices significantly increased from the national short list to the national long list but did not significantly differ from the national long list to the provincial long list. The national short list resulted in the highest daily and energy-adjusted diet costs overall. No difference in diet costs was noted between the national and provincial long lists. Diet costs for 4 food groups—additions, sweets, fruits, and vegetables, which were poorly covered by the national short list—significantly differed using the national and provincial long lists. All 3 diet cost methods were significantly correlated with energy intakes; however, a strong/very strong correlation was detected for children, and a weak/moderate correlation for adults. ConclusionsThe choice of food price data may introduce bias in the diet cost estimate, as well as limiting our understanding of how individuals allocate their diet costs. Refinement of diet cost estimation methodology and measures can strengthen future studies of how consumers allocate their purchases to their diets.

Avoiding Cost Overrun Through Stochastic Cost Estimation and External Quality Assurance

Cost overruns are a threat to project performance and continue to attract interest in both the popular media and the academic literature. Numerous studies from all continents have demonstrated that overruns remain prevalent in all industries. Although there are different suggestions as to what are the main causes of this problem, few studies have demonstrated what can be done to improve cost performance. This article provides evidence that improved cost estimation methodologies combined with external quality assurance can significantly reduce the extent of cost overruns in projects. The authors use data from 96 government projects in Norway, which implemented a quality assurance regime for large investment projects in the year 2000. The results show that cost performance was reasonably good. Only c. 25% of the projects subject to the regime experienced cost overruns. This suggests that by using proper cost estimation methodologies that are embedded in a governance framework that ensures that projects are subject to external scrutiny, the risks of cost overruns can be significantly reduced. The results should be encouraging for project owners who may have the impression that overrun is an unavoidable part of project delivery.

Measuring Public Open-Source Software in the Federal Government: An Analysis of Code.gov

This paper presents an in-depth analysis of patterns and trends in the open-source software (OSS) contributions by the U.S. federal government agencies. OSS is a unique category of computer software notable for its publicly accessible source code and the rights it provides for modification and distribution for any purpose. Prompted by the Federal Source Code Policy (USCIO, 2016), Code.gov was established as a platform to facilitate the sharing of custom-developed software across various federal government agencies. This study leverages data from Code.gov, which catalogs OSS projects developed and shared by government agencies, and enhances this data with detailed development and contributor information from GitHub. By adopting a cost estimation methodology that is consistent with the U.S. national accounting framework for software investment proposed in Korkmaz et al. (2024), this research provides annual estimates of investment in OSS by government agencies for the 2009–2021 period. The findings indicate a significant investment by the federal government in OSS, with the 2021 investment estimated at around $407 million. This study not only sheds light on the government’s role in fostering OSS development but also offers a valuable framework for assessing the scope and value of OSS initiatives within the public sector.

Operational shock: A method for estimating cyber security incident costs for large Australian healthcare providers

ABSTRACT This paper introduces a novel cyber incident cost estimation methodology, applicable to large Australian healthcare providers. A review demonstrates the poor utility of current risk estimation approaches and the vulnerability of healthcare networks is evaluated using Leibniz’s law of indiscernibles, and Evans’ theory of vague objects. Finally, a quantitative cost calculation method is proposed, merging temporal and impact variables with service data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. This research demonstrates that existing attempts to measure cyber incident risk produces vague results. This is evidenced by 929 Australian healthcare data breaches recorded over 5 years, a AU$0.6bn annual national risk exposure, and low levels of healthcare cyber maturity across three states. The likelihood of data breaches is reported as 99.4%, with known ICT vulnerabilities exceeding 207,000. After logically concluding that healthcare networks are fundamentally insecure, an ‘operational shock’ calculation method is modelled against the AIHW data, to illustrate realistic cyber incident costs. This returns an exposure across Australia’s acute care hospital network of AU$148.1 m from a single incident that takes 1 week to resolve. In considering this quantum, risk transfer options using cyber insurance and improved agency cyber risk programs are required to mitigate significant financial risks.

An Estimation of the Cost of Providing Books for further Reading in Libraries of Distance Education

The Self Learning Materials (SLMs) of distance education attempt to provide learners with a learning environment containing textbooks and lecture notes. Apart from this, counselling sessions, media enabled solutions such as audio/ video channels and teleconferencing sessions are provided to learners. A small library of essential books for further reading mentioned in the SLMs are also maintained at the study centres to offer library facilities comparable to campusbased education. An accurate and efficient cost estimation and optimisation methodology is very important in library development as it would assist the management to estimate the costs involved. Cost analysis is perhaps not given the required consideration by libraries largely due to the fact that they are state-funded, and difficulties attached to assess the use made out of money spent. This study has been carried out to find out the optimum cost of supply of books prescribed for further reading in the SLMs of Master of Library and Information Science (MLIS) programme of the national Open University, IGNOU to the libraries of its Regional Centres and of its Study Centres hosting the programme.

Costing methodologies in European economic evaluation guidelines: commonalities and divergences.

From both the methodological point of view and standardization of methodology, little attention has been paid to the estimation of direct costs in evaluation of healthcare technologies. The objective is to revise the recommendations on direct costs provided in European economic evaluation guidelines and to identify the commonalities and divergences among them. To achieve this, a comprehensive search through several online databases was performed resulting in 41 documents from 26 European countries, be they economic evaluation guidelines or costing guidelines. The results show a large disparity in methodologies used in estimation of direct costs to be included in economic evaluations of health technologies recommended by European countries. A lack of standardization of cost estimation methodologies influences arbitrariness in selecting costs of resources included in economic evaluations of medicinal products or any other technologies and, therefore, in decision making process necessary to introduce new technology. In addition, this heterogeneity poses a major challenge for identifying factors that could affect the variability of unit costs across countries.

PARAMETRIC COST MODELLING OF COMPONENTS FOR TURBOMACHINES: PRELIMINARY STUDY

AbstractThe ever-increasing competitiveness, due to the market globalisation, has forced the industries to modify their design and production strategies. Hence, it is crucial to estimate and optimise costs as early as possible since any following changes will negatively impact the redesign effort and lead time.This paper aims to compare different parametric cost estimation methods that can be used for analysing mechanical components. The current work presents a cost estimation methodology which uses non-historical data for the database population. The database is settled using should cost data obtained from analytical cost models implemented in a cost estimation software. Then, the paper compares different parametric cost modelling techniques (artificial neural networks, deep learning, random forest and linear regression) to define the best one for industrial components.Such methods have been tested on 9 axial compressor discs, different in dimensions. Then, by considering other materials and batch sizes, it was possible to reach a training dataset of 90 records. From the analysis carried out in this work, it is possible to conclude that the machine learning techniques are a valid alternative to the traditional linear regression ones.

Assessing of Losses and Dilution Impact on the Cost Chain: Case Study of Gold Ore Deposits

The conditions of declining gold grade in the ore, increasing depth of excavation, and de-creasing unallocated stock of deposits make it necessary to develop efficient solutions for the mine-to-mill process, which have to be adapted to each specific mining plant and will optimizes production costs. Current research focuses on a case study that demonstrates how indicators of mining losses and dilution influence the variation of costs chain in the production cycle. The article examines the topical issue of determining the effects at the mine-to-mill stages due to changes in losses and dilution. The author’s approach to the formation of a mine-to-mill cost chain is proposed by integrating several cost estimation methods into the general cost estimation methodology. The estimation methodology is a compilation of factor analysis and cost engineering methods that take into account the change in costs due to the variation of losses and dilution. It was proven that with variations in losses and dilution, cost savings arise due to changes in the volume of work on ore averaging, ore transportation, and beneficiation. For the case of the Kuranakh ore field, there are no effects at the mining stage. The use of internal reserves by means of managing ore quality parameters allows reducing the costs per ton of processed rock mass along the entire production chain.

Estimating Regionalized Planning Costs of Green Infrastructure and Low-Impact Development Stormwater Management Practices: Updates to the US Environmental Protection Agency's National Stormwater Calculator.

Estimating regional costs of green infrastructure (GI) and low-impact development (LID) stormwater management controls is an important issue for many municipalities and water utilities in the United States. The National Stormwater Calculator (NSWC) is a site-scale, planning-level tool. A regional cost estimation methodology was recently added to the NSWC, enabling users to estimate region-specific capital and maintenance costs of commonly used GI controls. This paper discusses the approach used to estimate and regionalize costs in the NSWC.

Regarding Investment in a Healthier Future: Impact of the 2012 Institute of Medicine Finance Report.

Governments at all levels work to ensure a healthy public, yet financing, organization, and delivery of public health services differ across the United States. A 2012 Institute of Medicine Finance report provided a series of recommendations to ensure a high-performing and adequately funded public health infrastructure. This review examines the influence of the Finance report's 10 recommendations on public health policy and practice. This review utilized peer-reviewed and gray literature published since 2012. Documents that address at least one of the Finance report's 10 recommendations and contain information on either official actions taken in response to the Finance report or evidence of the report's influence on the practice community. Of 2394 unique documents found, a total of 56 documents met the eligibility criteria. Review of these 56 documents indicated that the most substantial activity related to the recommendations was focused on the "minimum package of public health services" concept and establishment of a uniform chart of accounts. Progress has been mixed on the Finance report recommendations. Improved tracking and auditing of public health activity appears to be advancing, yet financial benchmarks remain unmet. Challenges remain in determining actual investment in public health and equitable resource allocation approaches. State and local health department use of cost estimation methodology and a uniform chart of accounts tool has contributed to an increase in understanding and improvement in public health spending. The Finance report has served as a strong impetus for advocating for an increased investment in governmental public health. Efforts are bolstered by informed public health practitioners and stakeholders but often stymied by policy makers who must balance complex competing issues and priorities. Although many successes have occurred, further work is needed toward improving investment in the nation's public health.

Building Resilience and Recoverability of Electric Grid Communications

Industrialized society depends on continuously operating critical infrastructures, especially the electric grid and its associated telecommunications systems. A widespread, long‐term outage of grid systems can result from natural disasters, accidents, or intentional actions. When such an outage occurs, outside assistance may be unavailable or impractical. Resulting societal impacts can be severe—even deadly. Therefore, infrastructures should be designed for resilience to prevent collapse and to facilitate rapid recovery.The telecommunications system for the U.S. electric grid exemplifies a subsystem vulnerable to such a long‐term outage. An electromagnetic pulse (EMP) can cause such an outage to telecommunication systems. To ensure resilience to an EMP event, the equipment can be shielded and collocated with protected on‐site power and long‐duration fuel storage.Building resilience and facilitating reconstitution of the grid telecommunication system would have societal benefits far exceeding the investments required to obtain these capabilities. The cost estimation methodology we use in this analysis is broadly applicable for a variety of hazards and threats to complex critical infrastructures.

Revolutionising cost structure for integrated project delivery: a BIM-based solution

PurposeThe amalgamation of integrated project delivery (IPD) and building information modelling (BIM) is highly recommended for successful project delivery. However, IPD lacks an accurate cost estimation methodology at the “front-end” of projects, when little project information is available. This study aims to tackle this issue, through presenting analytical aspects, theoretical grounds and practical steps/procedures for integrating target value design (TVD), activity-based costing (ABC) and Monte Carlo simulation into the IPD cost structure, within a BIM-enabled platform.Design/methodology/approachA critical review was conducted to study the status of cost estimation within IPD, as well as exploring methods and tools that can enhance the cost estimation process for IPD. Thereafter, a framework is developed to present the proposed methodology of cost estimation for IPD throughout its entire stages. A case project is used to validate the practicality of the developed solution through comparing the profit-at-risk percentage for each party, using both traditional cost estimation and the proposed solution.FindingsAfter applying the proposed IPD's cost estimation framework, on a real-life case project, the findings demonstrated significant deviations in the profit-at-risk value for various work packages of the project (approximately 100% of the finishing package and 22% of openings package). By providing a precise allocation of overhead costs, the solution can be used in real-life projects to change the entire IPD cost structure and ensure a fair sharing of risk–rewards among the involved parties in IPD projects.Practical implicationsUsing the proposed methodology of cost estimation for IPD can enhance the relationship among IPD's core team members; all revealed financial deficiencies will be considered (i.e. compensation structure, profit pooling), hence enhancing the IPD performance.Originality/valueThis paper presents a comprehensive solution for integrating BIM and IPD in terms of cost estimation, offering three main contributions: (1) an innovate approach to utilise five-dimensional (5D) BIM capabilities with Monte Carlo simulation, hence providing reliable cost estimating during the conceptual TVD stage; (2) mathematical models that are developed through integrating ABC into the detailed 5D BIM to determine the three IPD's cost structure limbs; and (3) a novel mechanism of managing cost saving (rewards) through distinguishing between saved resources from organisation level, to daily task level, to increase trust among parties.

Risk based initial cost assessment while planning a hydropower project

In the absence of perceived risks at planning stage, initial cost underestimation or overestimation is commonly existent in hydropower projects. This study suggests an expert fuzzy-TOPSIS multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) methodology for the initial cost estimation of a hydropower project. Risk factors along with their likelihood and impact are analyzed in pre-feasibility stage to assess the cost intervals per MW capacity. Project developers can use this philosophy to screen projects and identify critical areas for detailed investigations. To demonstrate the methodology's effectiveness, a case study of 126 MW Myntdu Leshka hydropower project in Meghalaya, India, is adopted. This study contributes to the limited research available concerning the analysis of risk factors for the cost assessment of a hydropower project.

A Pragmatic C ost Effective Model to Enhance the COCOMO Model in Software Estimation

This research work is aimed at to provide effective cost estimation methodology emphasize on cost effort and time . This paper summarizes the cost effort estimation of most conventionally used models like organic and semi-detached models using an improved version of genetic algorithm that enhances an empirical methodology to reduce the cost factor and time factor in software projects. Constructive cost model(Cocomo model) is broadly used for the fruitful valuation of cost estimation which is based on KLOC method(thousands of lines of code).This method yields beneficial result in case of lines of code method but lacks in terms of concept and logics. The same is estimated directly and is computed using the function point analysis. In the software development lifecycle, the software cost effort estimation is the most demanding process. The accuracy of the estimate in choosing the estimation model is an essential factor. Such conventional software effort estimation techniques fail to compute the accuracy of effort estimation and it is not up to the mark. So here, we tend to propose the cost reduction in the software projects by using the improved version of the known genetic algorithm.

Invited Lecture 8: Innovation and Exponential Technologies in the Era of COVID 19

Brief Biosketch Prof. Mary Hrachoohi Boghosian did her PhD in “Physics of Magnetic Materials” from the University of London, Imperial College of Science and Technology, London, England, and MBA in “Innovation, Technology Planning and Management” from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI), School of Management and Technology, Troy, New York. She is working as Adjunct Professor at the American University of Armenia (AUA) and the California State University of Los Angeles (USA). She is also a visiting professor at the Yerevan State University, School of Journalism initiating and teaching a postgraduate-level course on the “Essentials of Creative Thinking”. She spent 16 years working for NASA and the Aerospace Companies leading NASA projects and studies as well as developing the first-ever cost estimation methodology for costing very small satellites. Dr Boghosian is the author of more than forty publications and two inventions on space-related sensors and actuators. She is a recipient of several NASA technology achievement awards. In highly competitive economies, technology advancements move at an exponential pace leading to rapid change in innovation. Covid-19 has reshaped the global scientific and technological community through urgency for sharing information in research and technology development. COVID 19 has also shaped business commercialization and consumer behaviour allowing faster response and new infrastructure for technology and business development. In the midst of all this, exponential technologies supported by disruptive digitization allow companies to create their own innovation processes allowing cross industries and break down barriers. We will discuss the exponential technologies and the disruptive digitization process leading to new innovations and digital society and economy.

Life Cycle Cost Estimation of Distribution Transformer Failure from Life Data Exploration

Transformers are major equipment in a power system. Their reliability does not only affect the electric energy availability within a supplied area, but also the economical operation of a utility. Many power utilities in the world including Malaysia have distribution transformers that have been in operations for over 30 years. Aged distribution transformer will have higher risk of unexpected failure which will increase the operational cost. Nevertheless, the occurrence of transformer failure can be predicted based on historical events. In this research work, 2-Parameter Weibull distribution is used to model distribution transformer life data. Life data analysis is conducted based on the statistical model and failure prediction for distribution transformers is analysed. Since frequency of failures as a function of time from life data model varies with different manufacturers and affects the life cycle cost, both life data analysis and net present value concept could be combined to establish an enhanced methodology for life cycle cost estimation of distribution transformer failure. A case study was conducted on sample populations where distribution transformer with similar manufacturer and capacity were grouped together. Results for each transformer group were compared and examined. It was pointed by the results that appropriate modelling and analysis had allowed life cycle cost due to transformer failure to be estimated. Outcomes from the assessment would contribute to transformer life cycle management as one of the factors to consider in the decision making for asset replacement, maintenance and planning.

PDG17 HOSPITAL COSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE FALSIFIED MEDICINES DIRECTIVE IN HUNGARY

Medicine counterfeiting and its impact on patient safety is an emerging healthcare problem with an estimated annual prevalence of 0,005% (1,5 million packs) in the European legal drug supply chain. The aim of the Falsified Medicines Directive 2011/62/EU (FMD) is to prevent the entry of illegitimate medicines into the legal supply chain. There is, however, a relative lack of in-depth assessments of cost implications for hospital pharmacies. This study aims to evaluate the financial burden of FMD on Hungarian hospitals. Based on literature review and interviews with hospital pharmacy experts, a 37-question data collection form was developed to evaluate the implementation process before February 2019 and for the following stabilization period. Institutional data, infrastructural and IT developments and procedures related to authentication (verification and decommissioning) were evaluated in 3 large hospitals (900-1500 beds). Data collection started from February 2019. Authentication was performed upon shipment receipt. The average number of medication packs processed by the pharmacies was approximately 50 000 packs/month, of which on average 9 864 packs (ranging from 3 930 to 15 442) were FMD-compliant. That ratio is expected to increase over time. As human resource requirement, the added workload required 1 FTE pharmacy technician, with an estimated 7 719,23 € annual cost (ranging from 4138,77 € to 12 640,35 €). Initial one-off infrastructure and IT development costs were 2526,73 € (ranging from 77,99 € to 1 434,93 €). Our results illustrate that FMD may have a significant financial impact on hospital pharmacies. The findings of this study might offer a better understanding of influencing factors of FMD implementation in hospitals contributing to an optimized cost estimation methodology.

Technical and economic evaluation of separation of dimethyl disulfide from disulfide oil at liquefied petroleum gas treatment facilities of Assaluyeh gas refinery

AbstractDisulfide oil (DSO) is produced as a hydrocarbon sulfide waste stream in liquefied petroleum gas and condensate sweetening units in refineries and can cause acute environmental pollutions. In this article, a simple process composed of two units including a distillation unit and a hydrodesulfurization (HDS) unit is proposed to overcome the disulfide oil problem in refineries. The commercial HDS catalyst is CoMo type that is applicable for hydrotreating of DSO. This catalyst is developed by different licensors such as Axens. The high sulfur content in DSO feed causes an increase in heat of reaction and partial pressure of H2S in HDS reactor. By using special design techniques such as reactor quenching or increase H2/oil ratio, the reactor can be designed properly for DSO feed. The waste stream DSO is converted to valuable products including: dimethyl disulfide (DMDS), sweet gas and condensate. A process flow diagram consisting of distillation and HDS units together with amine treating and hydrogen compression system is proposed and simulation of the process is carried out by Aspen plus: The distillation unit separates DMDS and the HDS unit removes sulfur from remainder DSO. Capital cost estimation methodology is based on bare module factor. The capital and operating cost of the process are estimated for a real capacity of DSO just produced in south pars of Iran. Financial parameters and sensitivity analysis show that the process is feasible both technically and economically with an internal rate of return of 73.6%. The proposed process is accepted environmentally by converting a harmful waste to saleable products.

What Are the Uses and Limitations of Time-driven Activity-based Costing in Total Joint Replacement?

With increasing emphasis on value-based payment models for primary total joint arthroplasty (TJA), there is greater need for orthopaedic surgeons and hospitals to better understand the actual costs and resource use of TJA. Time-driven activity-based costing (TDABC) is a methodology for accurate cost estimation, but its application in the TJA care pathway across institutions/regions has not yet been analyzed. In this systematic review of studies applying TDABC to primary TJA, we investigated the following: (1) Is there variation in TDABC methodology and cost estimates across institutions? (2) Is a standard set of direct and indirect costs included across studies? (3) Is there a difference in cost estimates derived from TDABC and traditional hospital cost-accounting approaches? and (4) How are institutions using TDABC (process and outputs) with respect to the TJA care pathway? A comprehensive search strategy was developed that included the keywords "TDABC," "time-driven activity-based cost," "THA," "TKA," "THR," "TKR," and "TJR" in the PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, Ovid SP, Scopus, and ScienceDirect databases for articles published between 2004 and 2018 as well as extensive hand searching and citation mining. Relevant studies (n = 15) were screened to include THA or TKA as the focus of the TDABC model, full-text articles, TDABC-based cost estimates for TJA, and studies written in English (n = 8). Due to the heterogeneity of outcomes/methodology in TDABC studies involving TJA, quality assessment was based on each study's adherence to the seven steps delineated by Kaplan et al. in their original publication introducing TDABC in health care. There was substantial variation in TDABC methodology (especially in scope), adherence to the seven steps of TDABC, and data collection. Only five of eight studies incorporated indirect costs into their TDABC calculation, with notable differences in which direct and indirect expenses were included. TDABC-based cost estimates for TJA ranged from USD 7081 to USD 29,557, with variation driven by the TJA timeframe and whether implant costs were included in the costing calculation. TDABC was most frequently used to compare against traditional hospital accounting methods (n = 4), to increase operational efficiency (n = 4), to reduce wasted resources (n = 3), and to mitigate risk (n = 3). TDABC-based cost estimates are more granular and useful in practice than those calculated via traditional hospital accounting; however, there is a lack of standardized principles to guide TDABC implementation (especially for indirect costs) due to institutional and regional differences in TDABC application. Although TDABC methodology will likely continue to vary somewhat between studies, standardized principles are needed to guide the definition, estimation, and reporting of costs to enable detailed examination of study methodology and inputs by readers. Level III, economic and decision analysis.

A Product Architecture-Based Framework for a Data-Driven Estimation of Lifecycle Cost

This paper proposes a three-step cost estimation methodology that dynamically adapts the focus of the analysis on the progress of the development phases and on the different levels of aggregation of the product architecture. At each step, different qualitative and quantitative techniques are progressively integrated according to the degree of data granularity required by the advancement of the product development. Moreover, a fixed set of cost drivers are identified to express the costs at different phases of the product lifecycle. The different levels of the product architecture are instead used as a framework to collect and bundle data for a cost analysis, which gradually increases the accuracy. Hence, the purpose of this research is to move the focus from merely estimating the structuring data and information for the cost analysis. The methodology is explicitly aimed at standardized assembled systems/products, characterized by a high number of parts and modules shared among different product versions. The approach was tested and validated at an automotive company that designs, produces, and markets measurement devices for engine development. Operatively, the approach can be used by the development team to evaluate the impact of different design alternatives, deriving the lifecycle costs of the product once the design choices are made. By tracking the development process at each aggregation level, designers can assess cost reduction by monitoring the impact of selected cost drivers while the product development process is in progress.