Cosmogenic Neutrino Flux Research Articles

Constraints on the proton fraction of cosmic rays at the highest energies and the consequences for cosmogenic neutrinos and photons

Over the last decade, observations have shown that the mean mass of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) increases progressively toward the highest energies. However, the precise composition is still unknown and several theoretical studies hint at the existence of a subdominant proton component up to the highest energies. Motivated by the exciting prospect of performing charged-particle astronomy with ultra-high-energy (UHE) protons we quantify the level of UHE-proton flux that is compatible with present multimessenger observations and the associated fluxes of neutral messengers produced in the interactions of the protons. We study this scenario with numerical simulations of two independent populations of extragalactic sources and perform a fit to the combined UHECR energy spectrum and composition observables, constrained by diffuse gamma-ray and neutrino observations. We find that up to of order 10% of the cosmic rays at the highest energies can be UHE protons, although the result depends critically on the selected hadronic interaction model for the air showers. Depending on the maximum proton energy (E max p) and the redshift evolution of sources, the associated flux of cosmogenic neutrinos and UHE gamma rays can significantly exceed the multimessenger signal of the mixed-mass cosmic rays. Moreover, if E max p is above the GZK limit, we predict a large flux of UHE neutrinos above EeV energies that is absent in alternate scenarios for the origin of UHECRs. We present the implications and opportunities afforded by these UHE proton, neutrino and photon fluxes for future multimessenger observations.

Modeling Neutrino and Background Signals for the Payload for Ultrahigh Energy Observations (PUEO) Experiment

In the current age of multi-messenger astrophysics, Very High Energy (VHE) cosmic neutrinos (E > 1 PeV) represent a unique observation window into the most extreme astrophysical events in the universe. Measurements of the neutrino flux in this high energy regime provide information regarding the distribution and composition of Ultra-High Energy Cosmic Rays (UHECR), details of source acceleration mechanics, and definitive tests of physics beyond the standard model. Observations in multiple different detection channels (e.g. optical, radio, direct particle counting) are being explored to extend the sensitivity to neutrinos above PeV energies. The Payload for Ultrahigh Energy Observations (PUEO) is a long duration balloon experiment that builds on the successes of the Antarctic Impulsive Transient Antenna (ANITA) experiment to probe the cosmic neutrino flux above EeV energies. PUEO, like ANITA, seeks to measure coherent radio emission in the form of Askaryan emission from in-ice neutrino interactions and both geomagnetic and Askaryan emission from Extensive Air Showers (EAS) produced by the decays of Earth-emergent τ-leptons sourced from τ neutrinos. To evaluate the sensitivity of PUEO (and other detectors) to a given flux of neutrinos, it is necessary to accurately model i) the propagation of neutrinos through the Earth ii) the emission generated from the neutrino-sourced particle shower iii) the detector performance to a generated signal and iv) relevant backgrounds. Numerous software frameworks exist to model these different mechanisms independently, but often require significant work to use together. ν SpaceSim is an open source, end-to-end neutrino simulation package that models these described mechanisms for an arbitrary detector geometry in both the optical and radio emission channels. For a given experimental design,ν SpaceSim is designed to model the sensitivity to both the cosmogenic neutrino flux and to astrophysical neutrino transient events. The highly modular design of ν SpaceSim allows for comparison and exploration of different physics models within the same code base. In this contribution, we detail the state of the ν SpaceSim code as it pertains to modeling the sensitivity of the PUEO experiment, and highlight the mechanisms necessary to perform this calculation. We also describe the near-term improvements to the radio emission calculation in ν SpaceSim and the modeling of the most relevant backgrounds for PUEO: the direct (above-the-limb) cosmic rays, and the indirect (ice-reflected) cosmic ray signals.

High-energy Neutrino Emission from Espresso-reaccelerated Ions in Jets of Active Galactic Nuclei

We present a bottom-up calculation of the flux of ultrahigh-energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) and high-energy neutrinos produced by powerful jets of active galactic nuclei (AGNs). By propagating test particles in 3D relativistic magnetohydrodynamic jet simulations, including a Monte Carlo treatment of sub-grid pitch-angle scattering and attenuation losses due to realistic photon fields, we study the spectrum and composition of the accelerated UHECRs and estimate the amount of neutrinos produced in such sources. We find that UHECRs may not be significantly affected by photodisintegration in AGN jets where the espresso mechanism efficiently accelerates particles, consistent with Auger’s results that favor a heavy composition at the highest energies. Moreover, we present estimates and upper bounds for the flux of high-energy neutrinos expected from AGN jets. In particular, we find that (i) source neutrinos may account for a sizable fraction, or even dominate, the expected flux of cosmogenic neutrinos; (ii) neutrinos from the β-decay of secondary neutrons produced in nucleus photodisintegration end up in the teraelectronvolt to petaelectronvolt band observed by IceCube, but can hardly account for the observed flux; (iii) UHECRs accelerated via the espresso mechanism lead to nearly isotropic neutrino emission, which suggests that nearby radio galaxies may be more promising as potential sources. We discuss our results in light of multimessenger astronomy and current/future neutrino experiments.

Implications of multiwavelength spectrum on cosmic-ray acceleration in blazar TXS 0506+056

Context.The MAGIC collaboration has recently analyzed data from a long-term multiwavelength campaign of theγ-ray blazar TXS 0506+056. In December 2018 it was flaring in the very high-energy (VHE;E > 100 GeV)γ-ray band, but no simultaneous neutrino event was detected.Aims.We modeled the observed spectral energy distribution (SED) using a one-zone leptohadronic emission.Methods.We estimated the neutrino flux through the restriction from the observed X-ray flux on the secondary radiation due to the hadronic cascade, initiated by protons with energyEp ≲ 0.1 EeV. We assumed that ultra-high-energy cosmic rays (UHECRs;E ≳ 0.1 EeV), with the same slope and normalization as the low-energy spectrum, are accelerated in the jet but escape efficiently. We propagate the UHE protons in a random turbulent extragalactic magnetic field (EGMF).Results.The leptonic emission from the jet dominates the GeV range, whereas the cascade emission from CR interactions in the jet contributes substantially to the X-ray and VHE range. The line-of-sight cosmogenicγ-rays from UHECRs produce a hardening in the VHE spectrum. Our model prediction for neutrinos from the jet is consistent with the 7.5-year flux limit by IceCube and shows no variability during the MAGIC campaign. Therefore, we infer that the correlation between GeV-TeVγ-rays and neutrino flare is minimal. The luminosity in CRs limits the cosmogenicγ-ray flux, which in turn bounds the RMS value of the EGMF to ≳10−5nG. The cosmogenic neutrino flux is lower than the IceCube-Gen2 detection potential for 10 yr of observation.Conclusions.Very high-energyγ-ray variability should arise from increased activity inside the jet; thus, detecting steady flux at multi-TeV energies may indicate UHECR acceleration. Upcomingγ-ray imaging telescopes, such as the CTA, will be able to constrain the cosmogenicγ-ray component in the SED of TXS 0506+056.

A new probe of relic neutrino clustering using cosmogenic neutrinos

We propose a new probe of cosmic relic neutrinos (CνB) using their resonant scattering against cosmogenic neutrinos. Depending on the lightest neutrino mass and the energy spectrum of the cosmogenic neutrino flux, a Standard Model vector meson (such as a hadronic ρ) resonance can be produced via νν¯ annihilation. This leads to a distinct absorption feature in the cosmogenic neutrino flux at an energy solely determined by the meson mass and the neutrino mass, apart from redshift. By numerical coincidence, the position of the ρ-resonance overlaps with the originally predicted peak of the Greisen-Zatsepin-Kuzmin (GZK) neutrino flux, which offers an enhanced effect at higher redshifts. We show that this absorption feature in the GZK neutrino flux may be observable in future radio-based neutrino observatories, such as IceCube-Gen2 radio, provided there exists a large overdensity in the CνB distribution. This therefore provides a new probe of CνB clustering at large redshifts, complementary to the laboratory probes (such as KATRIN) at zero redshift.

Cosmogenic gamma-ray and neutrino fluxes from blazars associated with IceCube events

Context.Blazars constitute the vast majority of extragalacticγ-ray sources. They can also contribute a sizable fraction of the diffuse astrophysical neutrinos detected by IceCube. In the past few years, the real-time alert system of IceCube has led to the multiwavelength follow-up of very high-energy neutrino events of plausible astrophysical origin. Spatial and temporal coincidences of a number of these neutrino events withγ-ray blazars provide a unique opportunity to decipher cosmic-ray interactions in the relativistic jets.Aims.The aim of this work is to test if theγ-ray blazars associated with the IceCube neutrino events are also sources of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays (UHECRs;E > 1018eV).Methods.Assuming that blazars accelerate UHECRs, we calculate the “guaranteed” contribution to the line-of-sight cosmogenicγ-ray and neutrino fluxes from four blazars associated with IceCube neutrino events. We compare these fluxes with the sensitivities of the upcomingγ-ray imaging telescopes, such as the CTA, and with the planned neutrino detectors, such as IceCube-Gen2.Results.We find that detection of the cosmogenic neutrino fluxes from the blazars TXS 0506+056, PKS 1502+106, and GB6 J1040+0617 would require UHECR luminosity ≳10 times the inferred neutrino luminosity from the associated IceCube events, with the maximum UHECR proton energyEp, max ≈ 1020eV. Cosmogenicγ-ray emission from blazars TXS 0506+056, 3HSP J095507.9 +355101, and GB6 J1040+0617 can be detected by the CTA if the UHECR luminosity is ≳10 times the neutrino luminosity inferred from the associated IceCube events and forEp, max ≳ 1019eV.Conclusions.Detection of cosmogenic neutrino and/orγ-ray flux(es) from blazars associated with IceCube neutrinos may lead to the first direct signature(s) of UHECR sources. Given their relatively low redshifts and hence total energetics, TXS 0506+056 and 3HSP J095507.9+355101 should be the prime targets for upcoming large neutrino andγ-ray telescopes.

Newly Born Extragalactic Millisecond Pulsars as Efficient Emitters of PeV Neutrinos

The origins of the diffuse flux of cosmogenic PeV neutrinos detected in the IceCube experiment during 2010 - 2017 remain unidentified. A population of extragalactic newly born fast spinning pulsars are investigated as possible candidates for generating the PeV energy scale neutrinos. A two-step mechanism of particle acceleration is adopted for transferring energy from star rotation to high energy electrons. Electrons might be boosted up to $\approx 0.01$ EeV energies and above, and produce ultra-high-energy (UHE) neutrinos and gamma rays when these electrons interact with low energy positrons and soft radiations in the acceleration zone. The theoretically derived extragalactic diffuse muon neutrino flux in the energy range [1-10] PeV is found consistent with the IceCube level if only a fraction ($\eta_{k} \approx 0.31\%$) of the total bolometric luminosity of pulsars are transferred to power the PeV neutrinos. Using the above value of the cosmic ray electron loading parameter $\eta_{k}$, the diffuse gamma ray flux from inverse Compton scattering off UHE electrons in the soft radiation field might be predicted from the model.

Modeling the spectrum and composition of ultrahigh-energy cosmic rays with two populations of extragalactic sources

We fit the ultrahigh-energy cosmic-ray (UHECR, Egtrsim 0.1 EeV) spectrum and composition data from the Pierre Auger Observatory at energies Egtrsim 5cdot 10^{18} eV, i.e., beyond the ankle using two populations of astrophysical sources. One population, accelerating dominantly protons (^1H), extends up to the highest observed energies with maximum energy close to the GZK cutoff and injection spectral index near the Fermi acceleration model; while another population accelerates light-to-heavy nuclei (^4He, ^{14}N, ^{28}Si, ^{56}Fe) with a relatively low rigidity cutoff and hard injection spectrum. A significant improvement in the combined fit is noted as we go from a one-population to two-population model. For the latter, we constrain the maximum allowed proton fraction at the highest-energy bin within 3.5sigma statistical significance. In the single-population model, low-luminosity gamma-ray bursts turn out to match the best-fit evolution parameter. In the two-population model, the active galactic nuclei is consistent with the best-fit redshift evolution parameter of the pure proton-emitting sources, while the tidal disruption events could be responsible for emitting heavier nuclei. We also compute expected cosmogenic neutrino flux in such a hybrid source population scenario and discuss possibilities to detect these neutrinos by upcoming detectors to shed light on the sources of UHECRs.

Prospects for high-elevation radio detection of >100 PeV tau neutrinos

Tau neutrinos are expected to comprise roughly one third of both the astrophysical and cosmogenic neutrino flux, but currently the flavor ratio is poorly constrained and the expected flux at energies above 1017 eV is low. We present a detector concept aimed at measuring the diffuse flux of tau neutrinos in this energy range via a high-elevation mountaintop detector using the radio technique. The detector searches for radio signals from upgoing air showers generated by Earth-skimming tau neutrinos. Signals from several antennas in a compact array are coherently summed at the trigger level, permitting not only directional masking of anthropogenic backgrounds, but also a low trigger threshold. This design takes advantage of both the large viewing area available at high-elevation sites and the nearly full duty cycle available to radio instruments. We present trade studies that consider the station elevation, frequency band, number of antennas in the array, and the trigger threshold to develop a highly efficient station design. Such a mountaintop detector can achieve a factor of ten improvement in acceptance over existing instruments with 100 independent stations. With 1000 stations and three years of observation, it can achieve a sensitivity to an integrated ℰ−2 flux of <10−9 GeV cm−2 sr−1 s−1, in the range of the expected flux of all-flavor cosmogenic neutrinos assuming a pure iron cosmic-ray composition.

EeV astrophysical neutrinos from flat spectrum radio quasars

Context. Flat-spectrum radio quasars (FSRQs) are the most powerful blazars in the γ-ray band. Although they are supposed to be good candidates in producing high-energy neutrinos, no secure detection of FSRQs has been obtained to date, except for a possible case of PKS B1424-418. Aims. In this work, our aim was to compute the expected flux of high-energy neutrinos from FSRQs using standard assumptions for the properties of the radiation fields filling the regions surrounding the central supermassive black hole. Methods. Starting from the FSRQ spectral sequence, we computed the neutrino spectrum assuming interaction of relativistic protons with internal and external radiation fields. We studied the neutrino spectra resulting from different values of free parameters Results. The result we obtained is that high-energy neutrinos are naturally expected from FSRQs in the sub-EeV–EeV energy range and not at PeV energies. This justifies the non-observation of neutrinos from FSRQs with the present technology, since only neutrinos below 10 PeV have been observed. We found that for a non-negligible range of the parameters, the cumulative flux from FSRQs is comparable to or even exceeds the expected cosmogenic neutrino flux. This result is intriguing and highlights the importance of disentangling these point-source emissions from the diffuse cosmogenic background.

Systematic parameter space study for the UHECR origin from GRBs in models with multiple internal shocks

ABSTRACT We scrutinize the paradigm that conventional long-duration gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are the dominant source of the ultrahigh energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) within the internal shock scenario by describing UHECR spectrum and composition and by studying the predicted (source and cosmogenic) neutrino fluxes. Since it has been demonstrated that the stacking searches for astrophysical GRB neutrinos strongly constrain the parameter space in single-zone models, we focus on the dynamics of multiple collisions for which different messengers are expected to come from different regions of the same object. We propose a model that can describe both stochastic and deterministic engines, which we study in a systematic way. We find that GRBs can indeed describe the UHECRs for a wide range of different model assumptions with comparable quality albeit with the previously known problematic energy requirements; the heavy mass fraction at injection is found to be larger than 70 per cent ($95 {{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ CL). We demonstrate that the post-dicted (from UHECR data) neutrino fluxes from sources and UHECR propagation are indeed below the current sensitivities but will be reached by the next generation of experiments. We finally critically review the required source energetics with the specific examples found in this study.

Cosmogenic neutrino fluxes under the effect of active-sterile secret interactions

Ultra High Energy cosmogenic neutrinos may represent a unique opportunity to unveil possible new physics interactions once restricted to the neutrino sector only. In the present paper we study the observable effects of a secret active-sterile interactions, mediated by a pseudoscalar, on the expected flux of cosmogenic neutrinos. The results show that for masses of sterile neutrinos and pseudoscalars of hundreds MeV, necessary to evade cosmological, astrophysical and elementary particle constraints, the presence of such new interactions can significantly change the energy spectrum of cosmogenic neutrinos at Earth in the energy range from PeV to ZeV. Interestingly, the distortion of the spectrum results to be detectable at GRAND apparatus if the scalar mediator mass is around 250 MeV and the UHECRs are dominated by the proton component. Larger mediator masses or a chemical composition of UHECRs dominated by heavier nuclei would require much larger cosmic rays apparatus which might be available in future.

A Search for IceCube Events in the Direction of ANITA Neutrino Candidates

Abstract During the first three flights of the Antarctic Impulsive Transient Antenna (ANITA) experiment, the collaboration detected several neutrino candidates. Two of these candidate events were consistent with an ultra-high-energy upgoing air shower and compatible with a tau neutrino interpretation. A third neutrino candidate event was detected in a search for Askaryan radiation in the Antarctic ice, although it is also consistent with the background expectation. The inferred emergence angle of the first two events is in tension with IceCube and ANITA limits on isotropic cosmogenic neutrino fluxes. Here we test the hypothesis that these events are astrophysical in origin, possibly caused by a point source in the reconstructed direction. Given that any ultra-high-energy tau neutrino flux traversing the Earth should be accompanied by a secondary flux in the TeV–PeV range, we search for these secondary counterparts in 7 yr of IceCube data using three complementary approaches. In the absence of any significant detection, we set upper limits on the neutrino flux from potential point sources. We compare these limits to ANITA’s sensitivity in the same direction and show that an astrophysical explanation of these anomalous events under standard model assumptions is severely constrained regardless of source spectrum.

Ultrahigh-energy cosmic-ray nuclei and neutrinos from engine-driven supernovae

Transrelativistic supernovae (SNe), which are likely driven by central engines via jets or winds, have been among candidate sources of ultrahigh-energy cosmic rays (UHECRs). We investigate acceleration and survival of UHECR nuclei in the external reverse shock scenario. With composition models used in Zhang et al. (2018), we calculate spectra of escaping cosmic rays and secondary neutrinos. If their local rate is $\sim1$% of the core-collapse supernova rate, the observed UHECR spectrum and composition can be explained with the total cosmic-ray energy ${\mathcal E}_{\rm cr}\sim10^{51}$ erg. The maximum energy of UHECR nuclei can reach $\sim 10^{20}-{10}^{21}\rm~eV$. The diffuse flux of source neutrinos is predicted to be $\sim 10^{-11} - 10^{-10}~{\rm GeV}~{\rm cm}^{-2}~{\rm s}^{-1}~{\rm sr}^{-1}$ in the 0.1-1 EeV range, satisfying nucleus-survival bounds. The associated cosmogenic neutrino flux is calculated, and shown to be comparable or even higher than the source neutrino flux. These ultrahigh-energy neutrinos can be detected by ultimate detectors such as the Giant Radio Askaryan Neutrino Detector and Probe Of Extreme Multi-Messenger Astrophysics.

On the flux of high-energy cosmogenic neutrinos and the influence of the extragalactic magnetic field

ABSTRACT Cosmogenic neutrinos originate from interactions of cosmic rays propagating through the universe with cosmic background photons. Since both high-energy cosmic rays and cosmic background photons exist, the existence of high-energy cosmogenic neutrinos is certain. However, their flux has not been measured so far. Therefore, we calculated the flux of high-energy cosmogenic neutrinos arriving at the Earth on the basis of elaborate 4D simulations that take into account three spatial degrees of freedom and the cosmological time-evolution of the universe. Our predictions for this neutrino flux are consistent with the recent upper limits obtained from large-scale cosmic-ray experiments. We also show that the extragalactic magnetic field has a strong influence on the neutrino flux. The results of this work are important for the design of future neutrino observatories, since they allow to assess the detector volume and observation time that are necessary to detect high-energy cosmogenic neutrinos in the near future. An observation of such neutrinos would push multimessenger astronomy to hitherto unachieved energy scales.

Secondary neutrino and gamma-ray fluxes from SimProp and CRPropa

The interactions of ultra-high energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) with background photons in extragalactic space generate high-energy neutrinos and photons. Simulating UHECR propagation requires assumptions about physical quantities such as the spectrum of the extragalactic background light (EBL) and photodisintegration cross sections. These assumptions, as well as the approximations used in the codes, may influence the computed predictions both of cosmic-ray spectra and composition, and of cosmogenic neutrino and photon fluxes. Following up on our previous work where we studied the resulting uncertainties on cosmic-ray simulations, here we quantify those on neutrinos and photons, using the Monte Carlo codes CRPropa and SimProp in various source scenarios. We discuss the results in the light of the constraining power of the neutrino and photon spectra on the origin of the UHECRs. We show that cosmogenic neutrino fluxes are more sensitive to the parametrization of the EBL than UHECR spectra, whereas the overall cosmogenic gamma-ray production rates are relatively independent on details of the propagation. We also find large differences between neutrino fluxes predicted by the latest released versions of CRPropa and SimProp, and discuss their causes and possible improvements in future versions of the codes.

Cosmogenic neutrinos through the GRAND lens unveil the nature of cosmic accelerators

The sources of cosmic rays with energies above 55 EeV are still mysterious. A guaranteed associated flux of ultra high energy neutrinos known as the cosmogenic neutrino flux will be measured by next generation radio facilities, such as the proposed Giant Radio Array for Neutrino Detection (GRAND). By using the orthogonal information provided by the cosmogenic neutrino flux, we here determine the prospects of GRAND to constrain the source redshift evolution and the chemical composition of the cosmic ray sources. If the redshift evolution is known, independently on GRAND's energy resolution, GRAND with 200,000 antennas will constrain the proton/iron fraction to the ∼5–10% level after one year of data taking; on the other hand, if hints on the average source composition are given, GRAND will measure the redshift evolution of the sources to a ∼ 10% uncertainty. However, the foreseen configuration of GRAND alone will not be able to break the degeneracy between redshift evolution of the sources and their composition. Our findings underline the discriminating potential of next generation radio array detectors and motivate further efforts in this direction.

Ultrahigh energy cosmic rays and neutrinos from light nuclei composition

The baryonic mass composition of ultrahigh energy ($\gtrsim 10^{18}$ eV) cosmic rays (UHECRs) at injection accompanied by their interactions on universal photon backgrounds during propagation directly governs the UHECR flux on the Earth. Secondary neutrinos and photons produced in these interactions serve as crucial astrophysical messengers of UHECR sources. A modeling of the latest data obtained by the Pierre Auger Observatory (PAO) suggests a mixed element composition of UHECRs with the sub-ankle spectrum being explained by a different class of sources than the super-ankle region ($> 10^{18.7}$ eV). In this work, we obtain two kinds of fit to the UHECR spectrum -- one with a single population of sources comprising of $^1$H and $^2$He, over an energy range commencing at $\approx 10^{18}$ eV -- another for a mixed composition of representative nuclei $^1$H, $^4$He, $^{14}$N and $^{28}$Si at injection, for which a fit is obtained from above $\approx 10^{18.7}$ eV. In both cases, we consider the source emissivity evolution to be a simple power-law in redshift. We test the credibility of H+He composition by varying the source properties over a wide range of values and compare the results to that obtained for H+He+N+Si composition, using the Monte Carlo simulation tool CRPropa 3. The secondary electrons and photons are propagated using the cosmic ray transport code DINT. We place limits on the source spectral index, source evolution index and cutoff rigidity of the source population in each case by fitting the UHECR spectrum. Cosmogenic neutrino fluxes can further constrain the abundance fraction and maximum source redshift in case of light nuclei injection model.

Multi-Messenger Physics With the Pierre Auger Observatory

An overview about the multi-messenger capabilities of the Pierre Auger Observatory is presented. The techniques and performance of searching for Ultra-High Energy neutrinos, photons and neutrons are described. Some of the most relevant results are reviewed, such as stringent upper bounds that were placed to a flux of diffuse cosmogenic neutrinos and photons, bounds placed on neutrinos emitted from compact binary mergers that were detected by LIGO and Virgo during their first and second observing runs, as well as searches for high energy photons and neutrons from the galactic center that constrain the properties of the putative galactic PeVatron, observed by the H.E.S.S. collaboration. The observation of directional correlations between ultra-high energy cosmic rays and either high energy astrophysical neutrinos or specific source populations weighted by their electromagnetic radiation are also discussed. They constitute additional multi-messenger approaches aimed at identifying the sources of high energy cosmic rays.

A New View on Auger Data and Cosmogenic Neutrinos in Light of Different Nuclear Disintegration and Air-shower Models

Abstract We study the implications of ultrahigh-energy cosmic-ray (UHECR) data from the Pierre Auger Observatory for potential accelerator candidates and cosmogenic neutrino fluxes for different combinations of nuclear disintegration and air-shower models. We exploit the most recent spectral and mass composition data (2017) with a new, computationally efficient simulation code, PriNCe. We extend a systematic framework, which has been previously applied in a combined fit by the Pierre Auger Collaboration, with the cosmological source evolution as an additional free parameter. In this framework, an ensemble of generalized UHECR accelerators is characterized by a universal spectral index (equal for all injection species), a maximal rigidity, and the normalizations for five nuclear element groups. We find that the 2017 data favor a small but constrained contribution of heavy elements (iron) at the source. We demonstrate that the results moderately depend on the nuclear disintegration (Puget–Stecker–Bredekamp, Peanut, or Talys) model and more strongly on the air-shower (EPOS-LHC, Sibyll 2.3, or QGSjetII-04) model. Variations of these models result in different source evolution and spectral indices, limiting the interpretation in terms of a particular class of cosmic accelerators. Better-constrained parameters include the maximal rigidity and the mass composition at the source. Hence, the cosmogenic neutrino flux can be robustly predicted. Depending on the source evolution at high redshifts, the flux is likely out of reach of future neutrino observatories in most cases, and a minimal cosmogenic neutrino flux cannot be claimed from data without assuming a cosmological distribution of the sources.