Corporate Sector Purchase Programme Research Articles

Unconventionally Green: Monetary Policy between Engagement and Conflicting Goals

Abstract We study the potential role of the ECB in supporting the transition to a low-carbon economy by decarbonizing the corporate sector purchase programme (CSPP). We demonstrate that the carbon intensity of CSPP purchases is determined by three main factors: First, by the CSPP-eligibility criteria, as these tend to exclude bonds from low-emission sectors. Second, by the underlying structure of the bond market, as this tends to be skewed towards carbon-intensive sectors. Third, among the eligible bonds, the ECB tends to select those from relatively emission-intensive sectors. To decarbonize the CSPP, the ECB can theoretically act along these three lines: (i) adjust the CSPP-eligibility criteria to expand the range of eligible low-carbon assets, (ii), revise the principle of market neutrality to tilt the CSPP portfolio towards low-carbon companies, or, (iii), purchase so far neglected low-carbon bonds within the current eligibility and market neutrality framework. As all approaches have either very limited effects or are associated with significant theoretical and practical concerns, we conclude that their contribution to the success of active green monetary policy is not guaranteed, while at the same time risks arise for a monetary policy that targets price stability.

Examining QE’s bang for the Buck: Does Quantitative easing reduce credit and liquidity risks and stimulate real economic activity?

This paper investigates the ECB’s Corporate Sector Purchase Programme’s (CSPP) impact on European corporate bonds’ credit and liquidity risks and real economic activity. The results show that the CSPP’s announcement (“stock effect”) lowered the credit spread of eligible corporate bonds, measured by the G-spread, by ten basis points (bps) or 9.8%. The liquidity of eligible bonds also improved as their scaled bid-ask spread decreased by 2.6 bps or 4.6%. Moreover, for every 1 billion euros of ECB corporate bond monthly purchases (“flow effect”), the scaled bid-ask spread of eligible bonds declined by 0.6 bp from June 2016 to December 2018. As for economic activity, QE’s stock effect raised corporate debt – mainly for German firms – and the stock and flow effects stimulated dividend spending, especially for German and French firms. These results indicate that QE initially improved corporate bond operations and encouraged borrowing. Moreover, the CSPP continued to boost the liquidity of corporate bonds and dividend expenditure throughout its implementation, but not investment. Therefore, QE had limited success in stimulating economic activity.

Liquidity in the German Corporate Bond Market: Has The Cspp Made a Difference?

The Eurosystem purchased €178 billion of corporate bonds between June 2016 and December 2018 under the Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP). Did these purchases lead to a deterioration of liquidity conditions in the corporate bond market, thus raising concerns about unintended consequences of large-scale asset purchases? To answer this question, we combine the Bundesbank’s detailed CSPP purchase records with a range of liquidity indicators for both purchased and nonpurchased bonds. We find that while the flow of purchases supported secondary market liquidity, liquidity conditions deteriorated in the long-run as the Bundesbank reduced the stock of corporate bonds available for trading in the secondary market.

Effects of quantitative easing on firm performance in the euro area

This paper examines the effects of quantitative easing on firm performance using firm-level data in the euro area during the Corporate Sector Purchase Programme. We apply a difference-in-difference framework and focus on long-term and short-term book leverage, turnover, and profitability. Despite an increase in leverage, firms in the treatment group did not experience an increase in turnover or profitability as a result of the CSPP. Improved access to credit in the bond market seems to have no statistically discernible effects on the firms' real performance. Our empirical results also show cross country and region heterogeneity in the effects of CSPP. Possible factors driving the results include the limited scope of the CSPP program, financial constraints being less of a concern for firms in the euro area, and that monetary policy is in general less effective in the aftermath of financial crises as the monetary transmission mechanism is partially impaired.

The Impact of ECB Corporate Sector Purchases on European Green Bonds

This papers analyzes the effect of the ECB’s Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP) and the recent Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) on the yields of eligible green bonds, a new but rapidly growing segment of the corporate bond market. We exploit these policy changes using a difference-in-differences strategy, with ineligible corporate green bonds is- sued in euro, U.S. dollars and Swedish crowns as comparison groups. We find that both programs significantly improve financing conditions for eligible green bonds, thereby increasing the attractiveness of these instruments to issuers and of the euro area as a location of issuance. The effects of the CSPP and PEPP are heterogeneous, both in terms of average impact and persistence of the effects. Yield differences between eligible and ineligible green bonds can last for more than six months. Our analysis informs the debate about new financing options for firms as well as about effects of asset purchase programs on the transition towards a less carbon-intensive economy.

A regression discontinuity design for ordinal running variables: Evaluating central bank purchases of corporate bonds

Regression discontinuity (RD) is a widely used quasi-experimental design for causal inference. In the standard RD the assignment to treatment is determined by a continuous pretreatment variable (i.e., running variable) falling above or below a prefixed threshold. Recent applications increasingly feature ordered categorical or ordinal running variables which pose challenges to RD estimation due to the lack of a meaningful measure of distance. This paper proposes an RD approach for ordinal running variables under the local randomization framework. The proposal first estimates an ordered probit model for the ordinal running variable. The estimated probability of being assigned to treatment is then adopted as a latent continuous running variable and used to identify a covariate-balanced subsample around the threshold. Assuming local unconfoundedness of the treatment in the subsample, an estimate of the effect of the program is obtained by employing a weighted estimator of the average treatment effect. Two weighting estimators—overlap weights and ATT weights—as well as their augmented versions are considered. We apply the method to evaluate the causal effects of the corporate sector purchase programme (CSPP) of the European Central Bank which involves large-scale purchases of securities issued by corporations in the euro area. We find a statistically significant and negative effect of the CSPP on corporate bond spreads at issuance.

The CSPP impact on non-financial firms’ cost of borrowing and debt choice

In this study, we examine the impact of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) corporate sector purchase programme (CSPP) on euro area non-financial firms’ cost of borrowing and choice between bank and public debt. Using a large sample of corporate bonds and syndicated loans closed between 2000 and 2019, we find that the CSPP reduced corporate bond spreads significantly, in both announcement and implementation periods. Findings also suggest that the CSPP had a positive spillover effect into the syndicated loan market during the implementation period. Our results show that there is a substitution effect between eligible bonds and equivalent loans, with non-financial firms choosing to use more corporate bonds than syndicated loan deals after the CSPP announcement, and that this effect is more important for non-switchers, those that may have more difficulty in accessing the bond market. Finally, we provide evidence that, when controlling for the CSPP, borrowers that choose corporate bonds are larger, more profitable, and have larger growth opportunity sets; and switchers with high agency costs of debt prefer bank debt.

Liquidity in the German Corporate Bond Market: Has the CSPP Made a Difference?

The Eurosystem purchased €178 billion of corporate bonds between June 2016 and December 2018 under the Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP). Did these purchases lead to a deterioration of liquidity conditions in the corporate bond market, thus raising concerns about unintended consequences of large-scale asset purchases? To answer this question, we combine the Bundesbank's detailed CSPP purchase records with a range of liquidity indicators for both purchased and nonpurchased bonds. We find that while the flow of purchases supported secondary market liquidity, liquidity conditions deteriorated in the long-run as the Bundesbank reduced the stock of corporate bonds available for trading in the secondary market.

Macroeconomic Effects of Non‐Standard Monetary Policy Measures in the Euro Area: The Role of Corporate Bond Purchases

This paper evaluates the macroeconomic effects of the European Central Bank’s Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP) when the monetary policy rate hits the zero lower bound (ZLB). To this purpose, we calibrate and simulate a monetary union dynamic general equilibrium model of the euro area (EA). We assume that entrepreneurs can finance their spending by issuing corporate bonds or through banking loans. Our results are as follows. First, the CSPP boosts GDP in both EA regions by about 0.3 percentage points (ppt) relative to the ZLB scenario. Inflation rises as well. Given the improvement in economic conditions, the EA monetary policy rate stays at the ZLB for a shorter amount of time. Second, the CSPP indirectly stimulates banking activity. Third, the two regions benefit in a similar way from the CSPP. Fourth, the duration of the program is relevant for its effectiveness. Finally, results are robust to changes in key parameters.

Making Room for the Needy: The Credit-Reallocation Effects of the ECB’s Corporate QE*

Abstract We analyze how the ECB’s purchases of corporate bonds under its Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP) affected the financing of Spanish firms. We first document that the announcement of the CSPP in March 2016 raised firms’ propensity to issue bonds. The flipside was a drop in the demand for bank loans by bond issuers. Around 75% of the drop in loans previously made to debt issuers was redirected to other, smaller nonbond issuing firms. This reallocation process was led by banks with weaker liquidity positions experiencing credit outflows, which extended credit to the same firms they were rationing prior to the CSPP. This positive credit supply shock raised the real investment of nonissuing firms. The concomitant ECB’s Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTRO-II) is estimated to have contributed to amplifying the credit-reallocation effect triggered by the CSPP.

Outreach and Effects of the ECB Corporate Sector Purchase Programme

This paper analyses the effects of the ECB Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP) on yields of corporate sector bonds and its impact on the corporate sector's debt markets. The CSPP started as a part of an existing asset purchase programme and significantly affected corporate bond markets. Any research undertaken in this area of the ECB's respective actions is fairly limited due to the restrained access to data and its OTC nature. This paper analyses CSPP effects by using two distinct methods - a detailed regression-controlled event study and an impulse-response analysis of constructed VAR models. This study addresses questions regarding time, size and place of effects caused by the CSPP on corporate bond markets and deals in detail with related issues and related economic theory backgrounds. A series of obtained sector, country and company-specific results gives us a picture of the non-negligible impact of the CSPP on purchased bonds and of the size and persistency of stock and flow effects of the ECB's actions.

Transmission Channels of Central Bank Asset Purchases in the Irish Economy

The European Central Bank (ECB) engaged in an expanded asset purchase programme (APP) from 2014 to 2018 to help achieve their primary objective of price stability. Total assets purchased over this period was over €2.5 trillion and new net purchases ended in December 2018. This paper identifies whether the ECB’s APP in Ireland operated through the portfolio rebalancing channel, the signalling channel or the lending channel. It presents a quantitative descriptive analysis of some key Irish data sets in the 2014–2018 period and uses time-series visualisation and trend analysis to identify trends and correlations. There are a number of preliminary findings. First, much downward pressure on sovereign debt yields and spreads had occurred before the APP began due to previous accommodative monetary policy and the signalling channel. Second, the corporate-sector purchase programme (CSPP) did impact on targeted bonds and may have had spill overs to non-targeted bonds. Third, the APP did not lead to much increased lending to the SME sector. Fourth, while households did engage in traditional portfolio rebalancing, Irish banks did not and were perhaps more motivated to meet their capital requirements and manage their level of reserves. This is a first step towards understanding the transmission channels of ECB policy in Ireland and more work needs to be done to detangle the transmission of the most recent APP from other factors and consider these findings in the context of theoretical models. Such work is important to help inform policy makers on enhancing the transmission mechanism to the Irish economy of the recently launched new ECB asset purchase programme from November 2019.

Quantify the quantitative easing: Impact on bonds and corporate debt issuance

This paper studies the impact of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP) announcement on prices, liquidity, and debt issuance in the European corporate bond market using a data set on bond transactions from Euroclear. I find that the quantitative easing (QE) programme increased prices and liquidity of bonds eligible to be purchased substantially. Bond yields dropped on average by 30 basis points (bps) (8%) after the CSPP announcement. Tri-party repo turnover rose by 8.15 million USD (29%), and bilateral turnover went up by 7.05 million USD (72%). Bid-ask spreads also showed significant liquidity improvement in eligible bonds. QE was successful in boosting corporate debt issuance. Firms issued 2.19 billion EUR (25%) more in QE-eligible debt after the CSPP announcement, compared to other types of debt. Surprisingly, corporates used the attracted funds mostly to increase dividends. These effects were more pronounced for longer-maturity, lower-rated bonds, and for more credit-constrained, lower-rated firms.

The Power of the Eurosystem to Promote Environmental Protection

The misalignment of the Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP), the latest iteration in the development of the Eurosystem’s unconventional measures of monetary policy, with EU environmental global commitments has stirred a lot of political debate in recent months. Critics of the CSPP typically point to Art. 3 TEU and to the binding nature of the Paris Agreement on the ECB as the main sources of legal obligations for the Eurosystem. This essay puts forward an additional argument: the Eurosystem is bound by Art. 11 TFEU, which integrates environmental objectives into the mandate of the Eurosystem and requires it to take those objectives into account when designing and implementing monetary policy. On this basis, the essay provides a critical analysis of the validity of the controversial CSPP and explores the potential implications of Art. 11 TFEU for monetary policy. The essay concludes that, besides a distinctive source of legal obligations, Art. 11 TFEU represents an opportunity for the Eurosystem to contribute to improving our embryonic understanding of the relationship between climate change and financial stability.

The CSPP at work: Yield heterogeneity and the portfolio rebalancing channel

We assess the impact of the corporate sector purchase programme (CSPP), the corporate arm of the ECB's quantitative easing, over its first year of activity (June 2016 – June 2017). Focusing on the primary bond market, we find evidence of a significant impact of the CSPP on yield spreads, both directly on purchased and targeted bonds and indirectly on all other bonds. The magnitude and the timing of the changes in yield spreads, coupled with the evolution of bond placements, are fully consistent with the proper unfolding the portfolio rebalancing channel.

The CSPP at Work - Yield Heterogeneity and the Portfolio Rebalancing Channel

We assess the impact of the corporate sector purchase programme (CSPP), the corporate arm of the ECB’s quantitative easing policy, in its first year of activity (June 2016 – May 2017). Focusing on the primary bond market, we find evidence of a significant impact of the CSPP on yield spreads, both directly on targeted bonds and indirectly via the portfolio rebalancing channel. While spreads on eligible bonds have declined since the start of the programme (by 60 basis points in 2016), non-eligible bonds remained unaffected until 2017, when the entire corporate market recorded a further decline in spreads of 56 basis points.

ECB Corporate QE and the Loan Supply to Bank-Dependent Firms

Using a representative sample of businesses in the euro area, we show that Eurosystempurchases of corporate bonds under the Corporate Sector Purchase programme (CSPP)increased the net issuance of debt securities, triggering a shift in bank loan supply infavour of firms that do not have access to bond-based financing. Identification comes frommatching bank-dependent firms to their lenders and accounting for the effect of CSPPon banks’ activity in the syndicated loan market. In a difference-in-differences setting,we show that credit access improved relatively more for firms borrowing from banksrelatively more exposed to CSPP-eligible firms. Unlike in previous studies, this resultapplies regardless of bank balance sheet quality as measured by Tier 1 and NPL ratios. JEL Classification: E52, E58, G01, G21, G28

Spillover Effects from the ECB‘s Unconventional Monetary Policies: The Case of Denmark, Norway and Sweden

Using event-study techniques we investigate the impact of ECB’s announcements of nonstandard policy measures on a broad range of financial assets from Denmark, Norway and Sweden. We find evidence that unconventional monetary policy announcements by the ECB resulted in pronounced spillovers to Denmark, Norway and Sweden. In particular, our results suggest that medium- and long-term government bond yields, corporate bond yields and CDS spreads were affected by ECB’s announcements of non-standard policy measures. Our empirical results indicate that the portfolio rebalancing channel played an important role in the transmission of ECB’s non-standard policy measures on mediumand long-term government bonds and corporate bond yields. However, it also seems that declining government bond yields transmitted to decreasing corporate bond yields. Moreover, our results suggest that benchmark stock market indices and exchange rates vis-A -vis the euro were mainly unaffected by ECB’s announcements of unconventional monetary policies. Furthermore, we find pronounced spillover effects from Forward Guidance statements, Securities Markets Programme announcements, and Corporate Sector Purchase Programme announcements on financial assets from Denmark, Norway and Sweden. Though, our results highly depend on the monetary policy surprise measure used in our regressions and the degree of policy anticipationKeywords: Budgetary Policy, Capital Taxation Rate, Consumption Taxation Rate, DSGE Model, Labor Taxation Rate, Wages Rigidity

The Power of the Eurosystem to Promote Environmental Protection

The misalignment of the Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP), the latest iteration in the development of the Eurosystem’s unconventional measures of monetary policy, with EU environmental global commitments has stirred a lot of political debate in recent months. Critics of the CSPP typically point to article 3 TEU and to the binding nature of the Paris Agreement on the ECB as the main sources of legal obligations for the Eurosystem. This essay puts forward an additional argument: the Eurosystem is bound by article 11 TFEU, which integrates environmental objectives into the mandate of the Eurosystem and requires it to take those objectives into account when designing and implementing monetary policy. On this basis, the essay provides a critical analysis of the validity of the controversial CSPP and explores the potential implications of article 11 TFEU for monetary policy. The essay concludes that, besides a distinctive source of legal obligations, article 11 TFEU represents an opportunity for the Eurosystem to contribute to improving our embryonic understanding of the relationship between climate change and financial stability.

Financial Intermediation Through Financial Disintermediation: Evidence from the ECB Corporate Sector Purchase Programme

We study the spillover effects of financial disintermediation on the supply of credit to small and medium enterprises (SMEs). We find direct central bank lending to large corporations induces banks to increase lending to SMEs by 8 to 12 percent. This effect is stronger for liquidity-constrained banks. SMEs with relationship banks affected by disintermediation borrow approximately €77,750 more relative to SMEs in the same country and industry. SMEs use these funds to invest in real activities and increase employment. We verify that our inferences are not due to changing economic fundamentals, demand from SMEs, or selection in central bank financing. Despite documenting positive effects, we also find that they disappear once new liquidity injections stop and the policy reaches a steady-state. Our findings provide some insights into this macroeconomic policy tool's ability to increase employment during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic through financial disintermediation serving as an additional channel to provide access to financing for SMEs.