Coronary Risk Score Research Articles

A Novel Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Risk Score to Predict One-Year Mortality

Clinical and angiographic risk factors associated with adverse outcomes after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) have been included in previous validated risk scores. Complications after PCI are known to increase mortality and morbidity but have not been included in any model. Records of 6,932 consecutive patients who underwent PCI from 2000 to 2005 were reviewed. Patients presenting with cardiogenic shock were excluded. Logistic regression and bootstrap methods were used to build an integer risk score for estimating risk of death at 1 year after PCI using baseline, angiographic, and procedural characteristics and postprocedural complications. This risk score was validated in a set of consecutive patients who underwent PCI from 2006 to 2007. The following 8 variables were significantly correlated with outcome: older age, history of diabetes mellitus, chronic renal failure, heart failure, left main coronary artery disease, lower baseline hematocrit, greater hematocrit decrease after PCI, and Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction grade <3 flow after PCI. In the validation population (n = 973), average receiver operating characteristic curve area was 0.836. In conclusion, we developed and validated a simple integer risk score, including postprocedural variables that closely predict long-term mortality after PCI. This model emphasizes the significant impact of complications occurring after PCI on long-term outcomes.

Prognostic Value of Framingham Cardiovascular Risk Score in Hospitalized Stroke Patients

The Framingham Coronary Risk Score (FCRS) is based on several factors, including age, sex, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, presence of diabetes, and cigarette smoking. Some of these factors are individually linked with acute stroke outcomes. We explored whether FCRS could predict outcome in patients hospitalized with recent stroke. We collected data on consecutive patients hospitalized for ischemic stroke over a 3-year period. Patients with known coronary artery disease were excluded. Discharge outcomes assessed were neurologic deficit (National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale [NIHSS] score), death or disability (modified Rankin Scale [mRS] score ≥2), and discharge to home directly from the hospital. The independent effect of FCRS on these outcomes was evaluated using multivariate regression analysis. During the study period, 434 patients with ischemic stroke met entry criteria (mean age, 64.5 years; 54% females). Median FCRS score was 8%. After adjusting for confounders, higher FCRS score was associated with an increased likelihood of death or being disabled at discharge (odds ratio [OR]=4.9; 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.98-24.1; P=.05), and a decreased likelihood of being discharged directly to home (OR=0.18; 95% CI=0.04-0.86; P=.032), but not with discharge NIHSS score. Higher FCRS in hospitalized ischemic stroke patients is associated with death or disability at discharge and a lower likelihood of being discharged directly to home. Along with indexing the long-term risk of cardiovascular events, this widely known, easily calculable score provides clinically relevant short-term prognostic information following ischemic stroke.

Usefulness of Biomarker Strategy to Improve GRACE Score's Prediction Performance in Patients With Non–ST-Segment Elevation Acute Coronary Syndrome and Low Event Rates

We sought to assess whether multiple biomarkers would correlate with the outcome and could improve event prediction in non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome populations with low event rates. Nine inflammatory, ischemic, or neurohormonal biomarkers were measured within 48 hours after symptom onset in 440 patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome from the ARCHIPELAGO (Irbesartan in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndrome Without ST Segment Elevation) trial. We assessed the relation between biomarkers and ischemic or heart failure composite end points at 2 months of follow-up. We also evaluated whether biomarkers could improve the predictive performance of the validated and well-performing Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events risk score. Among all biomarkers measured at baseline, only interleukin-6 correlated with the ischemic end point (adjusted odds ratio 1.69, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.23 to 2.31). The independent correlates of the heart failure end point were B-type natriuretic peptide (adjusted odds ratio 3.16, 95% CI 1.99 to 5.03), aldosterone (adjusted odds ratio 1.57, 95% CI 1.14 to 2.16) and matrix metalloproteinase-9 (adjusted odds ratio 0.64, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.88). The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events score predicted poorly the ischemic end point (area under the curve [AUC] 0.591) and fairly (AUC 0.775) the heart failure end point. The performance of the models was significantly improved by the introduction of interleukin-6 (AUC 0.685) for the ischemic end point and of the 3 biomarkers (AUC 0.874) for the heart failure end point. In conclusion, the interleukin-6 level only, and B-type natriuretic peptide, aldosterone, and matrix metalloproteinase-9 together, independently correlated with the ischemic and heart failure end points, respectively. The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events risk score's performance was significantly improved with a biomarker strategy. In low-risk populations, a strategy using these biomarkers might help in identifying patients at greater risk of additional events.

Six-month survival benefits associated with clinical guideline recommendations in acute coronary syndromes

AimsThe authors sought to define which guideline-advocated therapies are associated with the greatest benefit with respect to 6-month survival in patients hospitalised with an acute coronary syndrome (ACS).Methods and resultsThe...

Association of anhedonia with recurrent major adverse cardiac events and mortality 1 year after acute coronary syndrome.

Depression consistently predicts recurrent events and mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS), but it has 2 core diagnostic criteria with distinct biological correlates-depressed mood and anhedonia (loss of pleasure or interest). To determine if depressed mood and/or anhedonia predict 1-year medical outcomes for patients with ACS. Observational cohort study of post-ACS patients hospitalized between May 2003 and June 2005. Within 1 week of admission, patients underwent a structured psychiatric interview assessing clinically impairing depressed mood, anhedonia, and major depressive episode (MDE). Also assessed were the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events risk score, Charlson comorbidity index, left ventricular ejection fraction, antidepressant use, and depressive symptom severity using the Beck Depression Inventory. Cardiac units of 3 university hospitals in New York and Connecticut. Consecutive sample of 453 patients with ACS (age, 25-93 years; 42% women). All-cause mortality (ACM) and documented major adverse cardiac events (MACEs)-myocardial infarction, hospitalization for unstable angina, or urgent/emergency coronary revascularization)-actively surveyed for 1 year after admission. There were 67 events (16 deaths and 51 MACEs; 14.8%): 108 (24%) and 77 (17%) patients had anhedonia and depressed mood, respectively. Controlling for sex, age, and medical covariates, anhedonia (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.58; 95% confidence interval, 1.16-2.14; P < .01) was a significant predictor of combined MACE and ACM, but depressed mood was not. Anhedonia continued to significantly predict outcomes (P < .05) when additionally controlling for MDE diagnosis or depressive symptom severity. Findings were confirmed using depressed mood and anhedonia subscores from the Beck Depression Inventory in place of clinician interview ratings. Anhedonia identifies risk of MACE and ACM beyond that of established medical prognostic indicators, including MDE and depressive symptom severity. Correlates of anhedonia may add to the understanding of the link between depression and heart disease.

THE 9P21 GENETIC VARIANT IS ADDITIVE TO CAROTID INTIMA MEDIA THICKNESS AND PLAQUE IN IMPROVING CORONARY HEART DISEASE RISK PREDICTION IN WHITE PARTICIPANTS OF THE ATHEROSCLEROSIS RISK IN COMMUNITIES (ARIC) STUDY

Objective: We evaluated whether the addition of carotid intima media thickness and plaque (CIMT-P), and a single nucleotide polymorphism on chromosome 9p21 (9p21) together improve coronary heart disease (CHD) risk prediction in the ARIC study. Methods: Ten year CHD risk was estimated using the ARIC coronary risk score (ACRS) alone and in combination with CIMT-P and 9p21 individually and together in White participants (n = 9338). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), model calibration, net reclassification index (NRI), eywords: arotid intima media thickness laque p21 isk prediction oronary heart disease integrated discrimination index (IDI) and number of individuals reclassified were estimated. Results: The AUC of the ACRS, ACRS + 9p21, ACRS + CIMT-P and ACRS + CIMT-P + 9p21 models were 0.748, 0.751, 0.763 and 0.766 respectively. The percentage of individuals reclassified, model calibration, NRI and IDI improved when CIMT-P and 9p21 were added to the ACRS only model (see manuscript). Conclusion: Addition of 9p21 allele information to CIMT-P minimally improves CHD risk prediction in whites in the ARIC study. © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction of Myocardial Infarction Using Coronary Risk Scores Among Japanese Male Workers: 3M Study

It remains unclear how much coronary risk factors contribute to the prediction of myocardial infarction among Japanese populations. A nested case-control study of Japanese male workers aged 35 to 65 years was conducted between 1997 and 2000 in the Morbidity of Myocardial Infarction Multicenter Study in Japan (3M Study). Two hundred four myocardial infarctions were identified and two controls per case were selected by matching for age. We calculated odds ratios using a conditional logistic regression model, and constructed risk predictive models for the risk of myocardial infarction using coronary risk factors. The multivariable odds ratios (95 percent confidence intervals) of myocardial infarction were 2.02 (1.29-3.16) for high blood pressure, 2.33 (1.51-3.59) for high LDL-cholesterol, 4.16 (2.36-7.33) for low HDL-cholesterol, 1.49 (0.94-2.35) for high triglycerides, 1.46 (0.89-2.39) for high glucose, and 2.95 (1.90-4.59) for current smoking. A large reduction of the predictive value for myocardial infarction was shown after exclusion of high LDL-cholesterol (reduction of predictive value was -3.4%), further exclusion of low HDL-cholesterol (-7.1%), and further exclusion of current smoking (-16.4%). High LDL-cholesterol and low HDL-cholesterol as well as current smoking had high predictive values for myocardial infarction among Japanese middle-aged male workers.

Effect of Implementing Routine Early Invasive Strategy on One-Year Mortality in Patients With Acute Myocardial Infarction

The aim of the present study was to investigate whether the implementation of an early invasive strategy for unselected patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) would be associated with reduced long-term mortality compared to a conservative approach. In this prospective observational cohort study of consecutive patients admitted for AMI in 2003 (conservative cohort, n = 311) and 2006 (invasive cohort [IC], n = 307), an 11% absolute and 41% relative reduction in 1-year mortality was found for patients with AMI in the IC compared to the conservative cohort (p = 0.001). These findings were consistent after adjustment for age, gender, previous AMI, previous stroke, diabetes, smoking status, previous left ventricular systolic dysfunction, and serum creatinine at admission (hazard ratio 0.54, 95% confidence interval 0.38 to 0.78) and Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events risk score (hazard ratio 0.67, 95% confidence interval 0.46 to 0.97). More patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction received primary percutaneous coronary intervention in the IC (57% vs 3%, p <0.001), and a sixfold (25% vs 4%, p <0.001) increase in early percutaneous coronary intervention (<72 hours) for patients with non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction was observed. A greater proportion of patients in the IC received clopidogrel, aspirin, and statins during follow-up; otherwise, the secondary prevention measures were similar in the 2 cohorts. In conclusion, the introduction of a strategy for routine transfer to a high-volume percutaneous coronary intervention center for early invasive therapy was accompanied by a substantial reduction in mortality among unselected patients with AMI. Differences in unmeasured confounders might have accounted for a part of the difference in outcome.

Sex-Specific Trends in Midlife Coronary Heart Disease Risk and Prevalence

While recent data indicate that stroke prevalence in women at midlife is double that of similarly aged men in the United States, little is known about current sex-specific trends in symptomatic cardiovascular disease. This study aimed to determine sex-specific midlife prevalence of myocardial infarction (MI) and risk of future coronary heart disease. We assessed the sex-specific MI prevalence and the Framingham coronary risk score (FCRS) among US adults aged 35 to 54 years who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES), cross-sectional, nationally representative surveys, during 1988 to 1994 and 1999 to 2004. In both epochs, men aged 35 to 54 years had a higher prevalence of MI than similarly aged women, but the gap narrowed in recent years as MI prevalence decreased among men and increased among women (2.5% vs 0.7% in NHANES 1988-1994 [P < .01] and 2.2% vs 1.0% in NHANES 1999-2004 [P < .01]). Among men, the mean FCRS showed an improving trend (8.6% in NHANES 1988-1994 vs 8.1% in NHANES 1999-2004 [P = .07]), while among women, the mean FCRS worsened (3.0% in NHANES 1988-1994 vs 3.3% in NHANES 1999-2004 [P = .02]). Temporal trends in FCRS components revealed that men had more improvements in vascular risk factors than women, but diabetes mellitus prevalence increased in both sexes. Over the past 2 decades, MI prevalence has increased among midlife women, while declining among similarly aged men. Also, although the risk of future hard cardiovascular events remains higher in midlife men compared with midlife women, the gap has narrowed in recent years. Greater emphasis on vascular risk factor control in midlife women might help mitigate this worrisome trend.

Comparison of Men and Women With Acute Coronary Syndrome in Six Middle Eastern Countries

The aim of this study was to evaluate the gender differences in baseline characteristics, therapy, and outcomes in patients with acute coronary syndromes in 6 Middle Eastern countries. Over a 6-month period in 2007, 8,169 consecutive patients (74% men, 24% women) presenting with acute coronary syndromes were enrolled in a prospective, multicenter study from 6 adjacent Middle Eastern countries. Women were 9 years older than men and more likely to have diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia. Women were more likely to present with unstable angina and more often had atypical presentations of ST elevation myocardial infarction. Compared to men, women were significantly less treated with beta blockers and antiplatelet therapy, whereas reperfusion therapy was nonsignificantly less used in women. In all patients with acute coronary syndromes, women not only ranked higher on Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events risk score but also had increased in-hospital mortality, 1.75 times that of men. This mortality difference persisted after adjusting for all confounders (odds ratios 1.76, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 2.8, p <0.01). In conclusion, in addition to presentation with higher risk factors, female gender also independently predicted poorer outcomes in patients with ST elevation myocardial infarction.

Optimizing Screening and Management of Asymptomatic Coronary Artery Disease in Patients With Stroke and Patients With Transient Ischemic Attack

The feasibility of implementing an expert consensus guideline recommending use of a stroke patient's profile to manage undiagnosed coronary artery disease remains unclear. Following a guideline-based algorithm, we screened consecutive patients with ischemic stroke and patients with transient ischemic attack for asymptomatic coronary artery disease using the Framingham Heart Study Coronary Risk Score (FCRS) cutoff of high risk (> or = 20%) for experiencing a hard coronary artery disease event over a 10-year period. Patients with high FCRS received dobutamine stress echocardiogram outpatient screening, additional treatment (beta-blocker), or further management (cardiologist referral). From July 2004 to September 2007, among 693 patients, 501 (72%) met study criteria, of which 80 (16%) had FCRS > or = 20%. Elevated serum glucose, nonhigh-density lipoprotein, triglycerides, homocysteine, glycosylated hemoglobin as well as large vessel atherosclerotic stroke mechanism were more frequent in high versus low FCRS patients (P<0.05). Among high FCRS patients, 35 (44%) had dobutamine stress echocardiogram performed. Leading reasons for dobutamine stress echocardiogram nonperformance were patient noncompliance (42%) and primary care physician refusal (33%). Screening for coronary artery disease risk using FCRS is feasible in hospitalized patients with stroke, but outpatient adherence to stress testing is challenging largely due to patient and primary care physician-related factors.

Evaluation of Coronary Risk Score Applications in 10-Year Coronary Heart Risk Estimation

Evaluation of Coronary Risk Score Applications in 10-Year Coronary Heart Risk EstimationAtherosclerosis is a multifactorial disease with risk factors that have multiple effects. In the identification and treatment of asymptomatic individuals at high risk for developing coronary heart disease (CHD) different risk scoring schemes are used in everyday routine. The aim of this study was to compare SCORE recommended for our country with two other most frequently used risk schemes for 10-year CHD risk evaluation: Framingham and PROCAM as well as their modifications. From 220 examined subjects of both sexes, who were treated mainly for lipid metabolism disorder at the Dispensary for Atherosclerosis Prevention, Centre for Laboratory Medicine, Clinical Centre of Vojvodina, 110 subjects were included in our study and agreed to a one-year follow-up. At first check-up, 15% had low risk according to Framingham Weibull and 78% according to PROCAM, intermediate 12% according to PROCAM NS up to 45% according to Framingham Weibull, and high 8% according to PROCAM up to 40% according to Framingham Weibull. After a one-year treatment 30% were in the low risk category according to Framingham Weibull and 88% according to PROCAM. Intermediate from 10% according to PROCAM to 36% according to Framingham Weibull, and high from 2% according to PROCAM to 25% according to Framingham Weibull. There is a significantly lower percentage of high risk individuals and a higher percentage of low risk individuals after one year of lipid disorder treatment.

A new risk score system for the assessment of clinical outcomes in patients with non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction

Prediction for long-term clinical outcomes in patients with non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome is important as well as early risk stratification. The aim of this study is to develop a simple assessment tool for better early bedside risk stratification for both short- and long-term clinical outcomes. 2148 patients with non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) (64.9±12.2years, 35.0% females) were enrolled in a nationwide prospective Korea Acute Myocardial Infarction Registry (KAMIR). A new risk score was constructed using the variables related to one year mortality: TIMI risk index (17.5-30: 1 point, >30: 2 points), Killip class (II: 1 point, >II: 2 points) and serum creatinine (≥1.5mg/dL: 1 point), based on the multivariate-adjusted risk relationship. The new risk score system was compared with the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) and TIMI risk scores during a 12-month clinical follow-up. During a one year follow-up, all causes of death occurred in 362 patients (14.3%), and 184 (8.6%) patients died in the hospital. The new risk score showed good predictive value for one year mortality. The accuracy for in-hospital and one year post-discharge mortality rates, the new risk score demonstrated significant differences in predictive accuracy when compared with TIMI and GRACE risk scores. A new risk score in the present study provides simplicity with accuracy simultaneously for early risk stratification, and also could be a powerful predictive tool for long-term prognosis in NSTEMI.

Prognostic Value of Admission Fasting Glucose Levels in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndrome

Data are limited regarding the best prognostic glucose measure for patients admitted for an acute coronary event. We examined the admission fasting glucose levels among patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) from the University of Michigan ACS registry. The glucose levels were grouped into 3 categories (> or =70 to <100, 100 to <126, and > or =126 mg/dl). The primary outcome measures included mortality and a composite end point (stroke, recurrent infarction, and death) in hospital and at 6 months after the ACS event. Of the 1,525 patients (29% with diabetes) for whom glucose levels were available, a fasting glucose level of > or =100 mg/dl was associated with increased in-hospital mortality, after adjusting for the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events risk score and gender. A fasting glucose level of > or =126 mg/dl in patients with no known history of diabetes was associated with in-hospital adverse events (odds ratio 3.37, 95% confidence interval 1.51 to 7.51). The fasting glucose level was associated with an increased risk of 6-month mortality among nondiabetics (odds ratio 3.03, 95% confidence interval 1.35 to 6.81 for patients with a glucose level of 100 to 125 mg/dl; and odds ratio 2.81, 95% confidence interval 1.07 to 7.36 for patients with a glucose level of > or =126 mg/dl) but not for diabetic patients. In conclusion, we observed a strong association between the admission fasting glucose level and mortality, particularly among nondiabetic patients. Whether improving the diagnosis and treatment of hyperglycemia would result in reductions in adverse events after ACS remains unclear.

Association of medical noncompliance and long-term adverse outcomes, after myocardial infarction in a minority and uninsured population

The association of noncompliance with evidence-based medical therapies after myocardial infarction (MI) on long-term outcomes is not well recognized in minority and uninsured populations. Consecutive MI patients at a large urban hospital were followed for compliance with evidence-based medications (aspirin, clopidogrel, statins, beta blockers, and angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors [ACEIs]/angiotensin receptor blockers [ARBs]). Noncompliance was defined as proportion of days covered < or =80%. The outcome was combined mortality and MI. Kaplan-Meier analyses were used to explore the impact of noncompliance > or =4 medications. Of the 509 patients (86% minorities, 77% uninsured, and 54% diabetics), 132 (25.9%) presented with ST segment elevation with myocardial infarction (STEMI) and 377 (74.1%) with a non-ST segment elevation with myocardial infarction (NSTEMI), revascularization was performed in 297 (58.4%) patients, 72 (14.2%) patients died, 22 (4.3%) patients had an MI, and 91 (17.9%) patients had either event at a median follow-up of 2 (0.5-2.9) years. Noncompliance > or = 4 medications was significantly associated with adverse survival compared with compliant patients (29.7% vs 78.9%). After adjusting for traditional risk factors, The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events risk score for predicting death during 6 months post-discharge, revascularization, left ventricular (LV) function, coronary artery disease (CAD) severity, and punctual clinic visits, noncompliance with > or = 4 evidence-based medications was an independent factor associated with death or MI (hazard ratio [HR], 2.83; 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.60-5.01) in this minority and uninsured population.

Risk Factors Associated With Aortic and Carotid Intima-Media Thickness in Adolescents and Young Adults: The Muscatine Offspring Study

This study sought to determine whether cardiovascular risk factors are associated with aortic intima-media thickness (aIMT) and carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) in adolescents and young adults. Atherosclerotic lesions begin developing in youth, first in the distal abdominal aorta and later in the carotid arteries. Knowledge of how risk factors relate to aIMT and cIMT may help in the design of early interventions to prevent cardiovascular disease. Participants were 635 members of the Muscatine Offspring cohort. The mean aIMT and cIMT were measured using an automated reading program. The mean (SD) values of aIMT and cIMT were 0.63 (0.14) and 0.49 (0.04) mm, respectively. In adolescents (age 11 to 17 years), aIMT was associated with triglycerides, systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), body mass index (BMI), and waist/hip ratio, after adjusting for age, sex, and height. In young adults (age 18 to 34 years), aIMT was associated with those same 5 risk factors, plus high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and pulse pressure. In adolescents, cIMT was associated with SBP, pulse pressure, heart rate, BMI, and waist/hip ratio. In young adults, cIMT was associated with total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, SBP, DBP, BMI, waist/hip ratio, and glycosylated hemoglobin. In both age groups, aIMT and cIMT were significantly correlated with the Pathobiological Determinants of Atherosclerosis in Youth coronary artery risk score. Both aIMT and cIMT are associated with cardiovascular risk factors. Using aIMT in adolescents gives information beyond that obtained from cIMT alone. Measurement of aIMT and cIMT may help identify those at risk for premature cardiovascular disease.

The relationship between established coronary risk factors and serum copper and zinc concentrations in a large Persian Cohort

Introduction The relationship between demographic and biochemical characteristics, including several established coronary risk factors, and serum copper and zinc was assessed in a large Iranian population sample. Materials and methods A group of 2233 individuals, 15–65 years of age [1106 (49.5%) males and 1127 (50.5%) females] was recruited from residents of the Greater Khorasan province in northeast of Iran. Demographic data were collected using questionnaires. Coronary risk factors were determined using standard protocols, and trace elements were measured in serum using atomic absorption spectroscopy. Results Degree of glucose tolerance and smoking habit were not associated with serum zinc and copper levels. Serum copper levels were significantly higher in obese and hypertensive than in normal subjects ( p<0.001). In the whole group and for the female subgroup, serum zinc ( p<0.01) and copper ( p<0.001) were both significantly lower in individuals with normal versus high levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. A strong positive correlation was found between serum copper and body mass index (BMI) ( r=0.85, p<0.001). Weaker positive associations were found between serum copper and calculated 10 years’ coronary risk ( r=0.11, p<0.001). Serum zinc/copper ratio was strongly inversely associated with calculated 10 years’ coronary risk ( r=−0.10, p<0.001). The partial Eta squared (PES) values for factors determining serum zinc were hypertension (0.007, p=0.01) and BMI (0.004, p=0.01); and for serum copper, they were gender (0.02, p=0.001), hypertension (0.004, p=0.009), and 10 years’ coronary risk for men (0.003, p=0.03) and women (0.002, p=0.07). Conclusion Significant associations between serum trace element concentrations and several coronary risk factors, including calculated 10 years’ coronary risk scores, were found.

Ecological Studies and Cardiovascular Outcomes Research

Is it better to have a heart attack in the United States or Canada? Ecological studies are epidemiological evaluations in which the unit of analysis is populations, or groups of people, rather than individuals.1 They can answer important questions such as the question posed above that cannot easily be answered using any other form of study design. Ecological studies are conducted by researchers in a variety of disciplines, including outcomes researchers, to study potential causal associations between 1 or more exposure and outcome variables. They are frequently used where alternative study designs are not possible (eg, randomized control trials), such as when investigating the effect of geographical and temporal factors on disease incidence or the effect of a government policy change on health outcomes. In this overview, we provide an introduction to the use of ecological studies in cardiovascular outcomes research, drawing on published examples from our group and others. It is important for clinicians to be aware of both the potential strengths and weaknesses of this type of study design. Because ecological studies are ubiquitous in the medical literature, it is not possible to review all published cardiovascular ecological studies in a systematic manner. Individual-level variables are properties of each person whereas ecological variables are properties of groups, organizations, or places.1,2 All ecological studies are potentially prone to the so-called “ecological fallacy,” which is a term for the biases that may occur when the association that exists between variables at an aggregate level may not represent the true association that exists at an individual level.3 On the other hand, the ecological fallacy may be offset by avoidance of the “individualistic fallacy” whereby one assumes that individual patients are unaffected by the neighborhood in which they live or the setting in which they are treated.4 Complete …

Nurse-led risk assessment/management clinics reduce predicted cardiac morbidity and mortality in claudicants

Nurse-led assessment/management of risk factors is effective in many chronic medical conditions. We aimed to evaluate whether this finding was true for patients with intermittent claudication and to analyze its impact on patient-reported quality of life and predicted mortality due to coronary heart disease. We prospectively studied a series of 78 patients (51 men; median age, 65 years [IQR: 56-74 years]), diagnosed with intermittent claudication and referred to a nurse-led risk assessment/management clinic (NLC) from a consultant-led vascular surgical clinic. The NLC used clinical care pathways to manage antiplatelet medication, smoking cessation, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, and diabetes and to provide exercise advice. All patients were reassessed at a 3 months. Medication compliance, smoking status, fasting lipid profiles, blood pressure, and HbA1c were recorded. Disease-specific quality of life was assessed using King's College VascuQoL and predicted cardiac morbidity and mortality were calculated using the PROCAM and Framingham risk scores. We found that NLC enrollment produced an antiplatelet and a statin compliance of 100%, a smoking cessation rate of 17% (9 patients) and significant improvements in total cholesterol (median, 5.2-4.5 mmol/l), LDL (median, 3.1-2.5 mmol/l) and triglyceride (median, 1.7-1.4 mmol/l) levels. Significant disease-specific quality of life improvements and significant reduction in both the PROCAM (14% to 10%) and Framingham (14% to 11%) coronary risk scores were observed. Providing care at NLCs for claudicants is effective in assessing and managing risk factors, improves disease-specific quality of life and reduces predicted morbidity and mortality due to coronary heart disease.

Abstract 3117: Subclinical Aortic Atherosclerosis by Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance Imaging Predicts Increased Cardiovascular Morbidity and Mortality in an Initially Healthy Cohort: The Framingham Heart Study

INTRODUCTION: We sought to determine whether subclinical aortic atherosclerosis, detected noninvasively using cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR), predicts major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in adults without history or clinical manifestation of cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS: 318 Framingham Heart Study (FHS) Offspring cohort members (60±9 yrs, 51% women) underwent CMR in 1998–1999. Subjects were free of clinical CVD and were recruited from equal strata of age, sex and quintile of Framingham Coronary Risk score (FCRS), with double sampling of the top quintile. CMR of the descending aorta on a 1.5-T system used an ECG-triggered black-blood T2W TSE sequence with 1.03 × 0.64 × 5-mm 3 voxels, 10-mm gap. Aortic-lumen and plaque areas were hand-traced. MACE included CV death, myocardial infarction (MI), stroke or new heart failure (HF). A Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for FCRS was used to determine hazard ratio (HR) for MACE for the (within-sexes) quartile of subjects with greatest plaque burden (Q4) vs other subjects (Q1–3). Log-rank test was used to compare survival. RESULTS: CMR aortic atherosclerosis was identified in 38% of women and 41% of men. Over median 5.2-yr follow up, 38 MACE (4 deaths, 14 MIs, 12 strokes, 8 HF) occurred among 31 subjects. Greater plaque burden (Q4) was associated with 2.75-fold greater hazard of MACE (95% CI 1.33 – 5.69, p=0.007). The Figure shows Kaplan-Meier survival, log-rank p=0.0009. CONCLUSIONS: In a free-living population without history of cardiovascular disease, CMR evidence of subclinical aortic atherosclerosis was a predictor of 5-year MACE, even after adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors.