Propagation Of Coronal Mass Ejections Research Articles

Challenges in Forecasting the Evolution of a Distorted CME Observed During the First Close Solar Orbiter Perihelion

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), drivers of the most severe Space Weather disturbances, are often assumed to evolve self-similarly during their propagation. However, open magnetic field structures in the corona, leading to higher-speed streams in the ambient solar wind, can be source of strong distortions of the CME front. In this paper, we investigate a distorted and Earth-directed CME observed on 2022 March 25 combining three remote sensing with three in situ observatories at different heliocentric distances (from 0.5 to 1 au). Near quadrature observations by Solar Orbiter and the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory revealed a distortion of the CME front in both latitude and longitude, with Solar Orbiter observations showing an Earth-directed latitudinal distortion as low as ≈6 R ⊙. Near-Earth extreme-ultraviolet observations indicated the distortion was caused by interaction with faster wind from a nearby equatorial coronal hole. To evaluate the effect of the distortion on the CME's propagation, we adopted a three-point-of-view graduated cylindrical shell (GCS) fitting approach. For the first time, the GCS results are combined with an additional heliospheric single-viewpoint that looks further out in the heliosphere, revealing a deceleration in the CME before reaching ≈100 R ⊙. The CME geometry and velocity determined by this enhanced GCS are used to initialize a drag-based model and a WSA-Enlil MHD model. The estimated times of arrival are compared with in situ data at different heliocentric distances and, despite the complexity of the event, the error in the arrival times at each spacecraft results much lower (≈4 hr error) than the typical errors in literature (≈8–10 hr).

Cannibals in PARADISE: The Effect of Merging Interplanetary Shocks on Solar Energetic Particle Events

Gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events are associated with shocks driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The merging of two CMEs (so-called cannibalistic CMEs) and the interaction of their associated shocks has been linked to some of the most powerful solar storms ever recorded. Multiple studies have focused on the observational aspects of these SEP events, yet only a handful have focused on modeling similar CME–CME interactions in the heliosphere using advanced magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models. This work presents, to our knowledge, the first modeling results of a fully time-dependent 3D simulation that captures both the interaction of two CMEs and its effect on the acceleration and transport of SEPs. This is achieved by using an MHD model for the solar wind and CME propagation together with an integrated SEP model. We perform different simulations and compare the behavior of the energetic protons in three different solar wind environments, where a combination of two SEP-accelerating CMEs are modeled. We find that particle acceleration is significantly affected by the presence of both CMEs in the simulation. Initially, less efficient acceleration results in lower-energy particles. However, as the CMEs converge and their shocks eventually merge, particle acceleration is significantly enhanced through multiple acceleration processes between CME-driven shocks, resulting in higher particle intensities and energy levels.

Is It Possible to Detect Coronal Mass Ejections on Solar-type Stars through Extreme-ultraviolet Spectral Observations?

Stellar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from host stars are an important factor that affects the habitability of exoplanets. Although their solar counterparts have been well observed for decades, it is still very difficult to find solid evidence of stellar CMEs. Using the spectral line profile asymmetry caused by the Doppler shift of erupting plasma, several stellar CME candidates have been identified from spectral lines formed at chromospheric or transition region temperatures of the stars. However, a successful detection of stellar CME signals based on the profile asymmetries of coronal lines is still lacking. It is unclear whether we can detect such signals. Here we construct an analytical model for CMEs on solar-type stars and derive an expression of stellar extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) line profiles during CME eruptions. For different instrumental parameters, exposure times, CME propagation directions, and stellar activity levels, we synthesized the corresponding line profiles of Fe ix λ171.07 and Fe xv λ284.16. Further investigations provide constraints on the instrumental requirements for successful detection and characterization of stellar CMEs. Our results show that it is possible to detect stellar CME signals and infer their velocities based on spectral profile asymmetries using an EUV spectrometer with a moderate spectral resolution and signal-to-noise ratio. Our work provides important references for the design of future EUV spectrometers for stellar CME detection and the development of observation strategies.

Using sunRunner3D to interpret the global structure of the heliosphere from in-situ measurements

Understanding the large-scale three-dimensional structure of the inner heliosphere, while important in its own right, is crucial for space weather applications, such as forecasting the time of arrival and propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). This study uses sunRunner3D (3D), a 3-D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model, to simulate solar wind (SW) streams and generate background states. SR3D employs the boundary conditions generated by CORona-HELiosphere (CORHEL) and the PLUTO code to compute the plasma properties of the SW with the MHD approximation up to 1.1 AU in the inner heliosphere. We demonstrate that SR3D reproduces global features of Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs) observed by Earth-based spacecraft (OMNI) and the Solar TErrestial RElations Observatory (STEREO)-A for a set of Carrington rotations (CRs) that cover a period that lays in the late declining phase of solar cycle 24. Additionally, we demonstrate that the model solutions are valid in the corotating and inertial frames of references. Moreover, a comparison between SR3D simulations and in-situ measurements shows reasonable agreement with the observations, and our results are comparable to those achieved by Predictive Science Inc.'s Magnetohydrodynamic Algorithm outside a Sphere (MAS) code. We have also undertaken a comparative analysis with the Space Weather Adaptive Simulation Framework for Solar Wind (SWASTi-SW), a PLUTO physics-based model, to evaluate the precision of various initial boundary conditions. Finally, we discuss the disparities in the solutions derived from inertial and rotating frames.

Formation design for interplanetary shock imaging interferometric array

Continuous monitoring of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (CMEs) plays a vital role in modelling of CME heliospheric propagation and improving space weather prediction, which remains a significant challenge due to the lack of effective observations. The type II radio bursts produced by CME-driven interplanetary shocks provide an opportunity for us to imaging the CMEs and their shocks through interferometry technology. This paper proposes a concept for the program of CME/shock imaging through low-frequency radio interferometry based on satellite formation. The formation consists of one mother satellite and seven daughter satellites, forming an interferometric array with the equivalent aperture size of 100 km to conduct three-dimensional tomography of CME/shock at 0.1 MHz ∼ 30 MHz. Two types of satellite formations, including a linear formation and a coplanar formation, are designed to provide different options of baseline distributions. Then, the fuel budgets for formation deployment and maintenance are analyzed. Besides, GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) differential positioning is discussed for relative measurement between the mother and daughter satellites. Finally, imaging simulations are performed to demonstrate the imaging performances of the interferometric array. The proposed interferometric formation will furnish essential insights into the Earth-directed CME propagation and provide critical and unprecedented observation data for space weather forecasting.

Coronal dimmings as indicators of the direction of early coronal mass ejection propagation

Context. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are large-scale eruptions of plasma and magnetic field from the Sun that can cause severe disturbances in space weather. Earth-directed CMEs are responsible for the disruption of technological systems and damaging power grids. However, the early evolution of CMEs, especially Earth-directed ones, is poorly tracked using traditional coronagraphs along the Sun-Earth line. Aims. The most distinct phenomena associated with CMEs in the low corona are coronal dimmings, which are localized regions of reduced emission in the extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) and soft X-rays formed due to mass loss and expansion during a CME. We present a new approach to estimating the early CME propagation direction based on the expansion of coronal dimmings. Methods. We developed the Dimming InfeRred Estimate of CME Direction (DIRECD) method. First, we performed simulations of CMEs in 3D using a geometric CME cone model and varying parameters such as width, height, source location, and deflection from the radial direction to study their influence on the CME projection onto the solar sphere. Second, we estimated the dominant direction of the dimming extent based on the evolution of the dimming area. Third, using the derived dominant direction of the dimming evolution on the solar sphere, we solved an inverse problem to reconstruct an ensemble of CME cones at different heights, widths, and deflections from the radial propagation. Finally, we searched for which CME parameter combinations the CME orthogonal projections onto the solar sphere would match the geometry of the dimming at the end of its impulsive phase best; we did so to derive the CME direction in 3D. We tested our approach on two case studies on 1 October, 2011 and 6 September, 2011. We also validated our results with 3D tie-pointing of the CME bubble in an EUV low corona and with 3D reconstructions by graduated cylindrical shell modeling (GCS) of white-light CMEs higher up in the corona. Results. Using DIRECD, we found that the CME on 1 October, 2011 expanded dominantly toward the south-east, while the CME on 6 September, 2011 was inclined toward the north-west. This is in agreement with the CME direction estimates from previous studies using multi-viewpoint coronagraphic observations. Conclusions. Our study demonstrates that coronal dimming information can be used to estimate the CME’s direction early in its evolution. This allows us to provide information on the CME direction before it is observed in the coronograph’s field of view, which is of practical importance for space weather forecasting and the mitigation of potential adverse impacts on Earth.

Coronal dimming parameters and their variations in the 24th solar cycle

We analyzed coronal dimming parameters and their relation to coronal mass ejections to determine the location of possible ejections sources on the solar disk in the 24th solar cycle. We used Solar Demon database that contains flares and dimmings parameters obtained from SDO/AIA image. Coronal mass ejections from the CACTus database were associated with 16% of all the dimmings for the period 2010–2018. On average, dimmings associated with coronal mass ejections are events with large absolute parameter values. Correlation coefficient between dimming position angle and associated coronal mass ejection position angle is 0.96. Correlation coefficients between the coronal mass ejection speed and dimming parameters are close to 0.5 for dimmings in the central region of the solar disk. Obtained results can be used to model coronal mass ejections propagation and to define the probability of their arrival in near-Earth space.

A catalogue of observed geo-effective CME/ICME characteristics

One of the goals of Space Weather studies is to achieve a better understanding of impulsive phenomena, such as Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), to improve our ability to forecast their propagation characteristics and mitigate the risks to our technologically driven society. The essential part of achieving this goal is to assess the performance of forecasting models. To this end, the quality and availability of suitable data are of paramount importance. In this work, we merged publicly available data of CMEs from both in-situ and remote observations in order to build a dataset of CME properties. To evaluate the accuracy of the dataset and confirm the relationship between in-situ and remote observations, we have employed the Drag-Based Model (DBM) due to its simplicity and modest consumption of computational resources. In this study, we have also explored the parameter space for the drag parameter and solar wind speed using a Monte Carlo approach to evaluate how efficiently the DBM determines the propagation of CMEs for the events in the dataset. The geoeffective CMEs selected as a result of this work are compliant with the hypothesis of DBM (isolated CME, constant solar wind speed beyond 20 R⊙) and also yield further insight into CME features such as arrival time and arrival speed at L1 point, lift-off time, speed at 20 R⊙ and other similar quantities. Our analysis based on the acceptance rate in the DBM inversion procedure shows that almost 50% of the CME events in the dataset are well described by DBM as they propagate in the heliosphere. The dataset includes statistical metrics for the DBM model parameters. The probability distribution functions (PDFs) for the free parameters of DBM have been derived through a Monte Carlo-like inversion procedure. Probability distribution functions obtained from this work are comparable to PDFs employed in previous works. The analysis showed that there exist two different most probable values (median values) of solar wind speed for DBM input based on slow (wslow ≈ 386 km/s) and fast (wfast ≈ 547 km/s) solar wind type. The most probable value for the drag parameter (γ ≈ 0.687 × 10−7 km−1) in our study is somewhat higher than the values reported in previous studies. Using a data-driven approach, this procedure allows us to present a homogeneous, reliable, and robust dataset for the investigation of CME propagation. Additionally, possible CME events are identified where the DBM prediction is not valid due to model limitations and higher uncertainties in the input parameters. These events require further thorough investigation in the future.

Modeling the propagation of coronal mass ejections with COCONUT: Implementation of the regularized Biot-Savart law flux rope model

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are rapid eruptions of magnetized plasma that occur on the Sun. They are known to be the main drivers of adverse space weather. The accurate tracking of their evolution in the heliosphere in numerical models is of the utmost importance for space weather forecasting. The main objective of this paper is to implement the regularized Biot-Savart law (RBSL) method in a new global corona model, called COCONUT. This approach has the capability to construct the magnetic flux rope with an axis of arbitrary shape. We present the implementation process of the RBSL flux rope model in COCONUT, which is superposed onto a realistic solar wind reconstructed from the observed magnetogram around the minimum of solar activity. Based on this, we simulate the propagation of an S-shaped flux rope from the solar surface to a distance of 25$R_ odot Our simulation successfully reproduces the birth process of a CME originating from a sigmoid in a self-consistent way. The model effectively captures various physical processes and retrieves the prominent features of the CMEs in observations. In addition, the simulation results indicate that the magnetic topology of the CME flux rope at around 20$R_ odot $ deviates from a coherent structure and manifests as a mix of open and closed field lines with diverse footpoints. This work demonstrates the potential of the RBSL flux rope model in reproducing CME events that are more consistent with observations. Moreover, our findings strongly suggest that magnetic reconnection during the CME propagation plays a critical role in destroying the coherent characteristics of a CME flux rope.

Multi-spacecraft Observations of the 2022 March 25 CME and EUV Wave: An Analysis of Their Propagation and Interrelation

This paper reports on a well-defined EUV wave associated with a coronal mass ejection (CME) observed on 2022 March 25. The CME was observed by Solar Orbiter (SolO) during its first close perihelion (0.32 au) and by several other spacecraft from different viewpoints. The EUV wave was visible by the Extreme Ultraviolet Imager on board the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO-A/STA) in near quadrature to SolO. We perform a detailed analysis of the early phase of this CME in relation to the evolution of the associated EUV wave. The kinematics of the EUV wave and CME are derived via visual identification of the fronts using both the STA and SolO data. The analysis of an associated metric type II radio burst provides information on the early phase of the CME and wave propagation. Finally, we compare the EUV speed to the local magnetic field and Alfvén speed using standard models of the corona. The analysis of the decoupling between the EUV wave and the CME driver via imaging, kinematic study, radio data analysis, and comparison with maps/models clearly indicates that the EUV front is consistent with a wave initially driven by the lateral expansion of the CME, which evolves into a fast-mode magnetosonic wave after decoupling from the CME.

SoloHI observations of coronal mass ejections observed by multiple spacecraft

Context. The Solar Orbiter Heliospheric Imager (SoloHI) instrument of the Solar Orbiter mission is a next-generation heliospheric imager. New observations from SoloHI demonstrate the improved spatial and temporal resolution compared to previous observations of the heliosphere and corona. At perihelion, the field of view (FoV) of SoloHI covers the transition between the coronagraph (COR2) and heliospheric imager (HI1) Sun-Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation (SECCHI) suite. In this paper, we focus on an active solar period following the first Solar Orbiter science perihelion that resulted in a number of well-observed large coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in SoloHI data in March and April 2022. Specifically, we highlight a series of events produced by AR12795 between 28 March and 2 April and show overlapping observations with SECCHI/COR2 and HI1 and LASCO/C3. Aims. We compare the performance of the SoloHI instrument against similar observations from 1 au imagers. We describe CME observations, highlighting the unique structural features captured within the SoloHI FoV. These observations demonstrate that SoloHI will provide new insights into CME morphology and evolution from a unique vantage point. Methods. To provide a direct and relevant comparison, images from all the telescopes we used in the paper are presented in FoVs common to each and with minimal processing applied. The J-maps we used to highlight outflowing features are also presented to show that the CME kinematics can be tracked through the SoloHI FoV, and also to report how the rest of the Heliophysics Systems Observatory (HSO) can be used to support the SoloHI data. Results. The high-resolution SoloHI images of these eruptions, taken from ∼0.3 au, reveal a number of detailed structural CME features, including internal cavities or cores of the CME flux rope(s). They also show the surrounding material and associated sheath region of the compressed upstream solar wind plasma. Many features that could not have been observed by other instruments are highlighted and discussed. Conclusions. The SoloHI instrument is performing well and has already provided detailed observations of CMEs that can help us understand the details of the internal structure and magnetic field of CMEs. These new observations in combination with synoptic observations from 1 au offer new opportunities for CME propagation from the corona to the heliosphere.

Eruption of prominence initiated by loss of equilibrium: multipoint observations

ABSTRACT Using the SDO/AIA, SOHO/LASCO, STEREO/SECCHI, and ground-based H α, radio observations, we studied a prominence eruption (PE) from the western limb that occurred on 2013 December 4. PE is associated with a moderate coronal mass ejection (CME) and GOES class C4.7 flare. Before a couple of days, the prominence pre-existed as an inverse-S shaped filament lying above fragmented opposite polarities between two active regions. Initially, the prominence appears as kinked or writhed as observed from different vantage points. From a careful study of magnetic field observations, we infer that the flux emergence at one leg of the prominence causes the loss of equilibrium which then initiates the slow upward motion of the prominence followed by onset of the eruption at a projected height of 35 Mm. The fast rise motion is also in synchronization with the flare impulsive phase but the average acceleration is quite small (150 ms−2) compared to strong flare cases. In the LASCO field of view (FOV), the CME continues to accelerate at 3 ms−2 attaining a speed of 450 km s−1 at 16 R⊙. In the extended STEREO-A FOV upto 38 R⊙, the CME decelerates 0.82 m s−2. The PE launched type III bursts delayed by 14 min with respect to the flare peak time (04:58 UT). Since the prominence is lying in the fragmented polarities, it is likely that the sheared arcade has little contribution to the poloidal flux of the rising magnetic flux rope and subsequently weak flare is recorded. This study of PE emphasizes the influence of the magnetic reconnection on the CME speed, launch of type II, III burst, and the CME propagation distance farther away from the Sun.

Three-dimensional relation between coronal dimming, filament eruption, and CME

Context.Coronal dimmings are localized regions of reduced emission in the extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) and soft X-rays formed as a result of the expansion and mass loss by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) low in the corona. Distinct relations have been established between coronal dimmings (intensity, area, magnetic flux) and key characteristics of the associated CMEs (mass and speed) by combining coronal and coronagraphic observations from different viewpoints in the heliosphere.Aims.We investigate the relation between the spatiotemporal evolution of the dimming region and both the dominant direction of the filament eruption and CME propagation for the 28 October 2021 X1.0 flare/CME event observed from multiple viewpoints in the heliosphere by Solar Orbiter, STEREO-A, SDO, and SOHO.Methods.We present a method for estimating the dominant direction of the dimming development based on the evolution of the dimming area, taking into account the importance of correcting the dimming area estimation by calculating the surface area of a sphere for each pixel. To determine the propagation direction of the flux rope during early CME evolution, we performed 3D reconstructions of the white-light CME by graduated cylindrical shell modeling (GCS) and 3D tie-pointing of the eruptive filament.Results.The dimming evolution starts with a radial expansion and later propagates more to the southeast. The orthogonal projections of the reconstructed height evolution of the prominent leg of the erupting filament onto the solar surface are located in the sector of the dominant dimming growth, while the orthogonal projections of the inner part of the GCS reconstruction align with the total dimming area. The filament reaches a maximum speed of ≈250 km s−1at a height of about ≈180 Mm before it can no longer be reliably followed in the EUV images. Its direction of motion is strongly inclined from the radial direction (64° to the east, 32° to the south). The 3D direction of the CME and the motion of the filament leg differ by 50°. This angle roughly aligns with the CME half-width obtained from the CME reconstruction, suggesting a relation between the reconstructed filament and the associated leg of the CME body.Conclusions.The dominant propagation of the dimming growth reflects the direction of the erupting magnetic structure (filament) low in the solar atmosphere, though the filament evolution is not directly related to the direction of the global CME expansion. At the same time, the overall dimming morphology closely resembles the inner part of the CME reconstruction, validating the use of dimming observations to obtain insight into the CME direction.

Separating the effects of earthside and far side solar events. A case study

On 8 November 2013 a halo-type coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed, together with flares and type II radio bursts, but the association between the flares, radio bursts, and the CME was not clear. Our aim is to identify the origin of the CME and its direction of propagation, and to exclude features that were not connected to it. On the Earth-facing side, a GOES C5.7 class flare occurred close to the estimated CME launch time, followed by an X1.1 class flare. The latter flare was associated with an EUV wave and metric type II bursts. On the far side of the Sun, a filament eruption, EUV dimmings, and ejected CME loops were observed by imaging instruments onboard the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) spacecraft that were viewing the backside of the Sun. The STEREO radio instruments observed an interplanetary (IP) type II radio burst at decameter-hectometric wavelengths, which was not observed by the radio instrument onboard the Wind spacecraft located at L1 near Earth. We show that the halo CME originated from the eruption on the far side of the Sun, and that the IP type II burst was created by a shock wave ahead of the halo CME. The radio burst remained unobserved from the earthside, even at heliocentric source heights larger than 9 solar radii. During the CME propagation, the X-class flare eruption caused a small plasmoid ejection earthward, the material of which was superposed on the earlier CME structures observed in projection. The estimated heights of the metric type II burst match well with the EUV wave launched by the X-class flare. As this radio emission did not continue to lower frequencies, we conclude that the shock wave did not propagate any further. Either the shock driver died out, as a blast wave, or the driver speed no longer exceeded the local Alfven speed.

Full Velocities and Propagation Directions of Coronal Mass Ejections Inferred from Simultaneous Full-disk Imaging and Sun-as-a-star Spectroscopic Observations

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are violent ejections of magnetized plasma from the Sun that can trigger geomagnetic storms, endanger satellite operations, and destroy electrical infrastructures on the Earth. After systematically searching Sun-as-a-star spectra observed by the Extreme Ultraviolet Variability Experiment on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) from 2010 May to 2022 May, we identified eight CMEs associated with flares and filament eruptions by analyzing the blue-wing asymmetry of the O iii 52.58 nm line profiles. Combined with images simultaneously taken by the 30.4 nm channel of the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on board SDO, the full velocity and propagation direction for each of the eight CMEs are derived. We find a strong correlation between geomagnetic indices (Kp and Dst) and the angle between the CME propagation direction and the Sun–Earth line, suggesting that Sun-as-a-star spectroscopic observations at extreme-ultraviolet wavelengths can potentially help to improve the prediction accuracy of the geoeffectiveness of CMEs. Moreover, an analysis of synthesized long-exposure Sun-as-a-star spectra implies that it is possible to detect CMEs from other stars through blue-wing asymmetries or blueshifts of spectral lines.

On the relationship between expansión angle of earth-directed CMES and soft X-ray emission from their related flare

In space weather, to study the impact of Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME) in our terrestrial environment, one of the most important parameters is the propagation speed of these disturbances. We present an improvement of the 3D CME Geometrical Propagation-Expansion Description (3D-CGPED) model developed in previous work to increase the simple that we can use in CME arrival time predictions. This 3D model estimates the arrival time of Earth-directed CMEs at Earth by including a 3D geometry for the CME propagation and expansion in interplanetary space. Since the 3D-CGPED model computes the expansion of the CME based on the radial distance of the CME front, only travel times for CMEs with welldefined shapes seen by coronographs can be estimated. In the present work, we found an empirical relationship between the expansion angle of CMEs with well-defined shapes and the start-to-peak SXR fluence of their associated flares. We applied this relationship in the 3D-CGPED model to obtain the expansion angle for 8 CMEs with an irregular shape. We found similar window errors in arrival time predictions compared to the previous work. This result allows us to complement the 3D-CGPED model to include not only regular shapes but also irregular ones for CMEs observed by coronographs in future works.

How Magnetic Erosion Affects the Drag-Based Kinematics of Fast Coronal Mass Ejections

In order to advance our understanding of the dynamic interactions between coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and the magnetized solar wind, we investigate the impact of magnetic erosion on the well-known aerodynamic drag force acting on CMEs traveling faster than the ambient solar wind. In particular, we start by generating empirical relationships for the basic physical parameters of CMEs that conserve their mass and magnetic flux. Furthermore, we examine the impact of the virtual mass on the equation of motion by studying a variable-mass system. We next implement magnetic reconnection into CME propagation, which erodes part of the CME magnetic flux and outer-shell mass, on the drag acting on CMEs, and we determine its impact on their time and speed of arrival at 1 AU. Depending on the strength of the magnetic erosion, the leading edge of the magnetic structure can reach near-Earth space up to ≈ three hours later, compared to the non-eroded case. Therefore, magnetic erosion may have a significant impact on the propagation of fast CMEs and on predictions of their arrivals at 1 AU. Finally, the modeling indicates that eroded CMEs may experience a significant mass decrease. Since such a decrease is not observed in the corona, the initiation distance of erosion may lie beyond the field-of-view of coronagraphs (i.e. 30~mathrm{R}_{odot }).

Trajectories of coronal mass ejection from solar-type stars

ABSTRACT The Sun and other solar-type stars have magnetic fields that permeate their interior and surface, extend through the interplanetary medium, and are the main drivers of stellar activity. Stellar magnetic activity affects the physical processes and conditions of the interplanetary medium and orbiting planets. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the most impactful of these phenomena in near-Earth space weather and consist of plasma clouds with a magnetic field, ejected from the solar corona. Precisely predicting the trajectory of CMEs is crucial in determining whether a CME will hit a planet and impact its magnetosphere and atmosphere. Despite the rapid developments in the search for stellar CMEs, their detection is still very incipient. In this work, we aim to better understand the propagation of CMEs by analysing the influence of initial parameters on CME trajectories, such as position, velocities, and the stellar magnetic field’s configuration. We reconstruct magnetograms for Kepler-63 (KIC 11554435) and Kepler-411 (KIC 11551692) from spot transit mapping, and use a CME deflection model, ForeCAT, to simulate trajectories of hypothetical CMEs launched into the interplanetary medium from Kepler-63 and Kepler-411. We apply the same methodology to the Sun, for comparison. Our results show that in general deflections and rotations of CMEs decrease with their radial velocity and increase with ejection latitude. Moreover, magnetic fields stronger than the Sun’s, such as Kepler-63’s, tend to cause greater CME deflections.

Solar Wind Data Assimilation in an Operational Context: Use of Near‐Real‐Time Data and the Forecast Value of an L5 Monitor

AbstractFor accurate and timely space weather forecasting, advanced knowledge of the ambient solar wind is required, both for its direct impact on the magnetosphere and for accurately forecasting the propagation of coronal mass ejections to Earth. Data assimilation (DA) combines model output and observations to form an optimum estimation of reality. Initial experiments with assimilation of in situ solar wind speed observations suggest the potential for significant improvement in the forecast skill of near‐Earth solar wind conditions. However, these experiments have assimilated science‐quality observations, rather than near‐real‐time (NRT) data that would be available to an operational forecast scheme. Here, we assimilate both NRT and science observations from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) and near‐Earth observations from the Advanced Composition Explorer and Deep Space Climate Observatory spacecraft. We show that solar wind speed forecasts using NRT data are comparable to those based on science‐level data. This suggests that an operational solar wind DA scheme would provide significant forecast improvement, with reduction in the mean absolute error of solar wind speed around 46% over forecasts without DA. With a proposed space weather monitor planned for the L5 Lagrange point, we also quantify the solar wind forecast gain expected from L5 observations alongside existing observations from L1. This is achieved using configurations of the STEREO and L1 spacecraft. There is a 15% improvement for forecast lead times of less than 5 days when observations from L5 are assimilated alongside those from L1, compared to assimilation of L1 observations alone.

Interaction of a coronal mass ejection and a stream interaction region: A case study

We investigated the interaction of a coronal mass ejection (CME) and a coronal hole (CH) in its vicinity using remote-sensing and 1 AU in situ data. We used extreme-ultraviolet images and magnetograms to identify coronal structures and coronagraph images to analyze the early CME propagation. The Wind spacecraft and the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) provide plasma and magnetic field data of near-Earth interplanetary space. We applied various diagnostic tools to the images and to the time-series data. We find that the CME erupts under a streamer and causes the evacuation of material at its far end, which is observable as dimming and subsequent CH formation. The CME is likely deflected in its early propagation and travels southwest of the Sun-Earth line. In situ data lack signatures of a large magnetic cloud, but show a small flux rope at the trailing edge of the interplanetary CME (ICME), followed by an Alfvénic wave. This wave is identified as exhaust from a Petschek-type reconnection region following the successful application of a Walén test. We infer that the two spacecraft at 1 AU most likely traverse the ICME leg that is in the process of reconnection along the heliospheric current sheet that separates the ICME and the high-speed stream outflowing from the CH.