Cornell Multigrid Coupled Tsunami Model Research Articles

Reconstruction of the Indian Ocean Tsunami in 2004 in Sabang Based on the Current Land Cover for Tsunami Evacuation Sites Recommendations

Sabang City has grown in term of city’s population as well as the tourism activity. The development also meant there are more area that has been used when compared to the time before the 2004 tsunami. This research was developed to re-identify tsunami-prone zones with the current land cover condition in Sabang City and to provide recommended safe locations, alternative evacuation routes, and additional evacuation sites. We used Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT) to carried out the tsunami simulation added with updated land cover to provide more accurate simulation model. The simulation pointed out several tsunami hazard zones in Sabang City, such as Balohan, Kuta Ateuh, and Iboih with expected tsunami heights to be more than 3 meters and arrival time less than 60 minutes. Those areas then surveyed to develop recommendations for tsunami risk reductions. The recommendations included nine additional evacuation buildings are proposed, three sites in each zone. Another recommendation is in form of evacuation routes in each zone to complement existing routes stated in RTRW document.

Tsunami fragility based characterisation of mosques as alternatives tsunami evacuation buildings: Reconstructing evidence from the 2004 Indian ocean tsunami

Buildings located in coastal areas can also function as protection or shelter during a tsunami wave event. High buildings on the coast such as mosques can be used as vertical evacuation buildings when a tsunami occurs. During the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami (IOT), there were many people evacuated and saved at mosques. The community in this region evacuated themselves to some mosques during a tsunami evacuation order on April 11, 2012. However, there is no study has been conducted to prove the fragility of mosques against tsunamis and how the mosques can function as alternative tsunami evacuation buildings. This study is aimed at reconstructing evidence of the impacts of tsunamis on mosques and at assessing the opportunities to use mosques as alternative evacuation buildings. The research was conducted in two modes: (1) a series of numerical modelling were performed to reconstruct tsunami flow depths based on the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami (IOT), and (2) impacts of tsunami on mosques were collected based on survivor's eyewitness accounts or photos were taken immediately after the event. The impacts were later used to compose a set of tsunami fragility curves to see the influence of flow depth on the level of mosque damage. Field surveys were at four districts that were severely affected by the 2004 IOT, namely Banda Aceh, Aceh Jaya, West Aceh, and Aceh Besar. Tsunami wave simulations were performed using the Cornell Multigrid Coupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT) to obtain flow depths at mosque locations. Validations of the numerical simulation results were done using secondary flow depth data reported previously. A total of 210 mosque buildings were assessed at the study sites, where 98 % of them were constructed using reinforced concrete with varying building heights ranging from 5 to 11 m (from floor to ceiling). The probability of absolute damage was caused when flow depths exceeded 10 m. The mosque buildings has a lower probability of collapse compared the other building such as house and other building in general. At 3.0 m of flow depth, the mosque would only be totally destroyed by around 12 %. The lower damage probability for mosque buildings can be attributed to mosques being constructed with stronger structures than typical residential buildings.

Assessing probability of building damages due to tsunami hazards coupled with characteristics of buildings in Banda Aceh, Indonesia: A way to increase understanding of tsunami risks

Knowing the potential number of buildings that could be damaged by a future tsunami is important in understanding tsunami risk. There is a limited number of studies that combine the tsunami inundation area that is generated based on probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis and tsunami fragility curves. This study is aimed at providing information on probabilistic tsunami hazard for the city of Banda Aceh (Indonesia), whereby the results could possibly be integrated into tsunami risk reduction in the city. A series of numerical simulations were performed using the Cornell Multi-Grid Coupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT). Tsunami sources were taken from rupture areas generated by a set of earthquakes emanating from the Aceh-Andaman Megathrust segment. Later, tsunami inundation areas that were produced from numerical simulations were used in a probabilistic hazard analysis. This research produced three sets of tsunami inundation maps for 250-, 500-, and 1000-year return event periods. Hazard curves were produced based on 230,000 grids. Field surveys were performed in order to assess over 82,000 building units in Banda Aceh, and classified them into six types of buildings, in accordance with HAZUS (Hazards United States). Based on two sets data of buildings in Banda Aceh (measured in 2017 and 2021), there has been an increased number of buildings in the city by around 31%. Most of the new buildings were identified as houses. A set of tsunami fragility curves was used to estimate the damage ratio of each of the buildings. It was found that around 10.5% of the buildings (8708 units of buildings) would likely be totally demolished (swept away), should a 1000-year return period tsunami occur. Inundation maps produced for the 1000-year return period tsunami found in this study portray a similar situation to that of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.

Building Vulnerability Analysis Due to Tsunami by Using Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA): A Case Study of Pelabuhan Ratu, Sukabumi

Cities that vulnerable to tsunamis, including the village of Pelabuhan Ratu on the southern coast of West Java, Indonesia, are in dire need of adequate vertical evacuation structures. However, constraints regarding to limited funding and difficulties in finding affordable land have hindered the implementation efforts of such structures in several cities. This research aims to analyze building vulnerability to tsunami disasters and identify buildings that can serve as alternative tsunami evacuation options based on Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) in Pelabuhan Ratu. The research methodology involves mapping the Modified Building Tsunami Vulnerability (BTV) and connecting the numerical simulation results with fragility curves assumed for the Pelabuhan Ratu area. The numerical simulations were conducted using the Cornell Multi-Grid Coupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT). Various tsunami scenarios triggered by earthquakes with different magnitudes ranging from 8.5 to 9.0, with intervals of 0.1, were considered in the numerical simulations. The research findings indicates high probability of maximum tsunami height reaching 14.85 meters in a return period of 10,000 years, and 51.77 meters in return period of 30,000 years. Based on these results, it was found that a three-story minimarket built with concrete could be used as an evacuation facility in a 10,000-year return period.

Simulation of Tsunami Inundation for the Island of Martinique to Nearby Large Earthquakes

ABSTRACT In this article, we estimate the tsunami hazard in Martinique due to tsunamis generated by earthquakes associated with the Lesser Antilles subduction zone. Using a deterministic approach based on reliable earthquake scenarios, we use high-resolution bathymetric and topographic data to model tsunami propagation and inundation with Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami model. An extreme earthquake subduction scenario of magnitude Mw 8.0 is tested, and a further realistic scenario of lower magnitude Mw 7.5, thus of different tsunami frequency content, is also processed to test the possible appearance of bay resonances. We find that the western coast of the island is relatively sheltered, because it represents a shadow area to diffraction, in particular, for the major city of Fort de France. Because of its very gentle slope, the eastern coast is prone to numerous floodings with meter scale wave amplitudes; most of the inundated zones consist of mangroves and geological depressions t are naturally regularly flooded by tides or storm surges. Hence such areas are often not exploited, the mangroves being let in their natural state, enhancing the protection of the surrounding communities. However, some strategic inhabited areas are subject to severe inundation. Finally, comparing our results with studies of the 1755 Lisbon transoceanic tsunami reveals a tsunami hazard close to our local Mw 7.5 scenario. It suggests the possibility to generalize our local tsunami hazard assessment in Martinique to other tsunami contexts and enlarge its validity. This issue is crucial for minimizing the efforts and increasing the efficiency of tsunami preparedness.

Historical tsunamis of Taiwan in the 18th century: the 1781 Jiateng Harbor flooding and 1782 tsunami event

Abstract. This research aims to study two historical tsunamis that occurred in Taiwan during the 18th century and to reconstruct the incidents. The 1781 Jiateng Harbor flooding, recorded by the Chinese historical document entitled “Taiwan Interview Catalogue” took place on the southwest coast of Taiwan. In contrast, the 1782 tsunami was documented in foreign languages, with uncertainties about the actual time. These two events seem to be close enough in time and location that, to some researchers, they are considered as the same event. Reasoning these historical events requires carefully examining the literature records and performing the scenarios that match the descriptions. The impact intensity analysis (IIA) is employed to locate possible regions of tsunami sources in order to reproduce the events. Numerical simulations based on the Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT) analyze the influence of different types of tsunamis generated by both submarine mass failures and seismic activities. Numerical results indicate that the source of the 1781 Jiateng Harbor flooding is located very possibly on the south-southwestern side of Taiwan. However, simulation results and historical records put the existence of the 1782 tsunami in doubt, and the possibility of storm surges could not be ruled out.

Investigating characteristics of tsunami hazards for west coast of Aceh Besar district, Indonesia

The seismic activities of a long section of the Sunda Plate revealed the vulnerability of the Indian Ocean to tsunami along the west coast of Sumatra, including on the west coast of Aceh Province. This megathrust caused the great tsunamigenic earthquake of 2004 and can be a possible candidate for rupture in the future and will affect or destroy everything, especially buildings along the coast. The west coast of Aceh Besar is one of the worst areas hit by tsunami waves and can cause tsunamis in the future. The objectives of this study are to determine the height, distance, and area of the tsunami inundation on the west coast of Aceh Besar District based on three earthquake magnitudes scenarios Mw 8.0, 8.5, and 9.2. The COMCOT (Cornell Multigrid Coupled Tsunami Model) tsunami model was used to obtain the height, area, and distance of the tsunami inundation. It was found that the largest tsunami inundation was caused by the tsunami generated by the magnitude Mw 9.2 earthquake. The maximum tsunami run up reached up to 20 meters with an inundation distance of 6 km from the coastline and a tsunami inundation area of 40 km2distributed along the west coast of Aceh Besar District.

Analysis of the tsunami amplification effect by resonance in Yeongil Bay

Predicting tsunami hazards based on the tsunami source, propagation, runup patterns is critical to protect humans and property. Potential tsunami zone, as well as the historical tsunamis in 1983 and 1993, can be a threat to the east coast of South Korea. The Korea Meteorological Administration established a tsunami forecast warning system to reduce damage from tsunamis, but it does not consider tsunami amplification in the bay due to resonance. In this study, the Numerical model, Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami model, was used to investigate natural frequency in the bay due to coastal geometry. The study area is Yeongill bay in Pohang, southeast of South Korea, because this area is a natural bay and includes three harbors where resonance significantly occurs. This study generated a Gaussian-shaped tsunami, propagated it into the Yeongill bay, and compared numerical modeling results with data from tide gauge located in Yeongill bay during several storms through spectral analysis. It was found that both energies of tsunamis and storms were amplified at the same frequencies, and maximum tsunami wave height was amplified about 3.12 times. The results in this study can contribute to quantifying the amplification of tsunami heights in the bay.

Probabilistic Assessment of Delayed Multi-fault Rupture Effect on Maximum Tsunami Runup along the East Coast of Korea

In this study, the effect of delayed multi-fault rupture on maximum tsunami runup was investigated. Rupture of faults mostly occurs in a delayed pattern; however, conventional models assume that rupture of faults occurs simultaneously. We simulated the effect of delayed rupture of faults on the maximum tsunami runup on the east coast of Korea with reference to the 1993 Hokkaido earthquake. The Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT) was used to generate the maximum tsunami runup database on the east coast of Korea. The delay time between faults was examined with a 1-min interval up to 10 min. The maximum tsunami runup showed a tendency to increase significantly in a specific space and time interval. The middle part of the east coast of Korea (from Gangneung to Samcheok) showed a significant increase in the maximum tsunami runup. In particular, the maximum tsunami runup due to delayed rupture can be larger than that of simultaneous rupture of faults by up to a factor of 1.8. To quantitatively evaluate the effect of delayed rupture, we performed a data-driven analysis using Bayesian network with the database generated from numerical tsunami modeling. It was found that the maximum tsunami runup is amplified at a specific delay time (e.g., 4 min and 9 min) between rupture of faults and this is closely related to the superposition of tsunami component generated by each fault. Our results demonstrate that the effect of delayed rupture should be considered in the prediction of tsunami runup.

GIS Based Tsunami Risk Assessment

Tsunami is a coastal hazard which occur due to undersea earthquakes, Meteorite falls, volcanic eruptions or even nuclear weapon operations. The tsunami hazard which occurred in December 2004 was generated due to an undersea earthquake 400m west of northern Sumatra and it inundated coastal areas of Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand and India. This hazard became one of the worst disasters in the history resulting in over thirty thousand fatalities and over seventy thousand house damage in Sri Lanka. This study is focused towards creation of GIS based Tsunami risk map for Galle city which was badly hit by the 2004 Tsunami. Tsunami vulnerability was assessed using weighted overlay spatial method with input parameters of population density, sex ratio, age ratio, disability ratio and damaged building ratio. Tsunami hazard map was developed based on tsunami inundation map which was published by Coastal research and design, costal conservation and resource management department with assistant from Disaster management centre using the Cornell Multigrid Coupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT). Vulnerable and hazard maps were analysed and incorporated to develop final risk map using GIS tool. Keywords GIS; Tsunami Inundation Map; Tsunami Risk Map; Vulnerability; Disaster

Coupling sea-level rise with tsunamis: Projected adverse impact of future tsunamis on Banda Aceh city, Indonesia

This research is aimed at investigating the impacts of sea-level rise (SLR) and tsunamis on Banda Aceh using several long-term scenarios based on the Sunda mega-thrust, the source of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Six earthquake magnitudes—Mw 8.2, 8.4, 8.6, 8.8, 9.0 and 9.15—were used to perform a number of numerical simulations using Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami model (COMCOT) with six simulation layers. The largest magnitude is from the earthquake that triggered the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The sea level in the region rises at the rate of 7 mm/year. This research used the SLR rate to project the impacts of SLR and tsunamis for 50, 100, 150 and 200 years. The SLR rates were also combined with three variations of tides, namely at lowest-low water level (LLWL), mean sea level (MSL), and highest-high water level (HHWL). One hundred twenty tsunami scenarios that included two land-use cover periods—2004 Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) and the 2029 LULC—were simulated. The latter is stipulated in the long-term city planning of Banda Aceh is to be implemented at the end of 2029. This research found that the impact of the tsunamis triggered by 8.2–8.6 magnitude earthquakes could be doubled if they are coupled with impacts of SLR.

Analysis of tsunami hazard in the Southern Coast of West Java Province - Indonesia

The Southern Coast of West Java Province in the Java Islands is one of prone and exposed area to tsunami hazard. It has about 428 kilometers coastline length, covering 5 administrational regencies (i.e. Sukabumi, Cianjur, Garut, Tasikmalaya, and Pangandaran). It is a strategic area that support many economic activities including tourism, fisheries, electricity power plants, agricultures, markets as well as social factors such as coastal villages, schools and other public facilities. The existence of this strategic area is threatened by the potential for a tsunami disaster mainly from megathrust along the Southern Coast of Java Island. On 2006, a tsunami earthquake of M7.7 occurred off Pangandaran Regency with tsunami height of 5-8 meters and inundated about 500 meters along southern coast of West and Central Java Province. The tsunami caused more than 600 casualties and damage to buildings, public facilities and insfrastructure. Yet, the Indonesia National Earthquake Source and Hazard Map suggest a bigger threat of a plausible M8.7 – M9.2 megathrust earthquake off Java island. This research aims to analyze and map potential areas affected by the tsunami in the South Coast of West Java Province based on numerical modelling carried out with Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT) v1.7 based on the several megathrust earthquake scenarios in southern off West Java. The results of tsunami modelling show that the highest impact is generated in the Sunda Straits & West Java - Central Java Megathrust Scenarios with highest tsunami inundation and the fastest travel time occurred in Cianjur Regency with 26,7 meters height and estimated arrival time of tsunami wave approximately 10 minutes after the mainshock, while the farthest inundation distance is estimated in Sukabumi Regency about 5.8 kilometers from the coast due to existence of river.

Knowledge-Building Approach for Tsunami Impact Analysis Aided by Citizen Science

Large tsunami events are devastating even though the impacts are limited to coastal areas. Knowledge is the key to minimize the losses from natural disasters by more proactive and better preparation. Targeting on natural hazards mitigation in Asia, a collaboration among 10 Asian and 2 European countries based on deeper understanding approach has been conducted since 2015. Deeper understanding is to discover the physical mechanisms and drivers behind a hazard event. Innovative model and simulation facilities are developed correspondingly to achieve more accurate numerical simulations of the whole lifespan of the target event. Application framework composed by the knowledge, data, simulation facility, software tools and case studies is designed to provide advanced estimation of hazard risk and would be evolved progressively with more case studies and observation data. For tsunami, based on the COMCOT (COrnell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model), the simulation portal (iCOMCOT) implementing parallelized tsunami wave propagation calculation over distributed cloud had been established. iCOMCOT system finished the simulation of whole lifecycle of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake Tsunami in one minute. In this regional collaboration, case studies on historical events and tsunami impact analysis were conducted. The goal is to capture the physical characteristics of tsunami as much as possible such as tsunami wave propagation, tsunami refraction, tsunami run-up on land, as well as their drivers and root causes. The whole processes of tsunami from its initiation to its impacts in selected locations then could be simulated accurately by iCOMCOT based on the scientific explorations and the revised models quantitatively. Sulawesi Tsunami (2018) case is presented to demonstrate the processes of deeper understanding approach and how to achieve the capacity building. At the same time, the ways to take advantages of citizen science are also explored. Citizen science model is valuable in supporting data collection such as data of run up height, inundation range, flow depth, disruption information, impact area, from publication, news report, and interviews of local people. According to experiences on case studies, suggestions to simplify and optimize the integration of citizen science model with deeper understanding approach to lower operation cost are provided.

Numerical Modeling of Meteotsunami–Tide Interaction in the Eastern Yellow Sea

Meteotsunamis originating from atmospheric pressure disturbances have frequently occurred in oceans worldwide and their destructive long waves have recently threatened local coastal communities. In particular, meteotsunamis occurring in the Yellow Sea caused unexpected casualties and property damage to local communities on the western coast of the Korean Peninsula in 2007 and 2008. These events attracted the attention of many engineers and scientists because abrupt extreme waves have struck several coasts and ports even under fine weather conditions. Furthermore, the Yellow Sea has the highest tide and most powerful tidal currents in the world, and consequently, meteotsunami events there could be more destructive and harmful to local coastal communities when such events occur during high tide or a critical phase with strong tidal currents. In this study, numerical experiments were conducted to identify the qualitative effect of the interaction between a meteotsunami and the tide on the generation and amplification mechanisms of meteotsunamis occurring in the Yellow Sea. In general, small-scale meteotsunamis, such as those that occur in the Yellow Sea, should be analyzed using a high-resolution modeling system because water motions can be affected by local terrain. To achieve this objective, high-resolution atmospheric modeling was conducted to reproduce the atmospheric pressure disturbances observed in the Yellow Sea; then, the generation and propagation of the meteotsunami over real topographies was simulated using a phase-resolving wave model. Both an atmospheric model (Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF)) and a shallow water equation model (COrnell Multigrid COupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT)) were employed to simulate the generation and transformation of the meteotsunami.

Reconstruction of the 2004 Tsunami Inundation Map in Banda Aceh Through Numerical Model and Its Validation with Post-Tsunami Survey Data

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recorded the 2004 tsunami heights in the Indian Ocean using the DART buoy tool and survey field data in the land side of Banda Aceh. Furthermore, 85 tsunami poles around Banda Aceh and Aceh Besar were used to mark the tsunami flow depth. The flow depth of the tsunami data recorded plays an important role in fostering our understanding of the physical tsunami wave generation and inundation using tsunami modeling. This study is aimed at comparing the results of the tsunami flow depth modeling in Banda Aceh with some measurement data from NOAA and Tsunami Poles. The tsunami modeling process was applied using the Cornell Multi-Grid Coupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT) computational program.We used 6 nested grids and the innermost layer covering the Banda Aceh region. The Layer 6 used for the variable Manning roughness coefficient represents the surface land use before the tsunami. We put 139 and 67 observation points on land to observe tsunami flow depth data according to NOAA and Tsunami pole coordinates, respectively. The result shows that NOAA data gave poor agreement with numerical simulations. A better result was obtained when using tsunami poles. We recommend increasing the use of the tsunami poles data as they were produced with a rigorous validation process for the 2004 tsunami.

Tsunami hazard assessment for atoll islands inside the South China Sea: A case study of the Xisha Archipelago

The potential tsunami hazard for atoll islands inside the South China Sea (SCS) has not been investigated previously. In this study, we assess the tsunami hazard for the Xisha Archipelago using a deterministic approach. The tsunami source considered in this study is hypothesized earthquakes in the Manila subduction zone. We employ COMCOT (COrnell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami model) for tsunami simulations. Different with previous deterministic assessments, our study investigates the uncertainties caused by bathymetric resolution and rupture complexities (here refers to rupture speed and direction variations related to fault geometry complexity). Comparison between results of different resolution suggests that coarser grids may over/underestimate tsunami hazards around mid-ocean atoll islands and this depends on the surrounding bathymetry. But results of different datasets show that GEBCO may lead to a lower result than the multibeam data. We also investigate the uncertainties caused by different rupture speed and direction, which are highly affected by subducting seamounts/ridge. Different rupture direction will shift the hardest hit locations to areas, which are possibly underestimated in cases of instantaneous ruptures. Also, the distribution of slip and location of the rupture zone can affect the local tsunami wave height significantly. We suggest that near-island high-resolution bathymetric data and dynamic rupture process should be considered in future tsunami hazard assessment in locations with similar geological structures.

Numerical Simulation of Morphological Changes due to the 2004 Tsunami Wave around Banda Aceh, Indonesia

The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami caused massive morphological changes around the coast of Sumatra, Indonesia. This research investigates the coastal morphological changes in the Banda Aceh area via coupling a hydrodynamic model with a sediment transport module. The Cornell Multigrid Coupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT) was coupled with the XBeach Model to simultaneously simulate sediment transport and the hydrodynamic process during the tsunami. The coupled model is known as COMCOT-SED. Field bathymetric data measured in 2006 were used to validate the coupled model. This study reveals that the tsunami’s impact was more severe on the eastern part of the coast, where it hit directly. Meanwhile, the western part of the coast suffered a lower impact because of the sheltering effects from a series of small islands and a headland to the north. This study has shown that the model results from COMCOT-SED are consistent with field data and show where the tsunami waves caused offshore erosion.

Assessing the tsunami mitigation effectiveness of the planned Banda Aceh Outer Ring Road (BORR), Indonesia

Abstract. This research aimed to assess the tsunami flow velocity and height reduction produced by a planned elevated road parallel to the coast of Banda Aceh, called the Banda Aceh Outer Ring Road (BORR). The road will transect several lagoons, settlements, and bare land around the coast of Banda Aceh. Beside its main function to reduce traffic congestion in the city, the BORR is also proposed to reduce the impacts of future tsunamis. The Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT) was used to simulate eight scenarios of the tsunami. One of them was based on the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Two magnitudes of earthquake were used, that is, 8.5 and 9.15 Mw. Both the earthquakes were generated from the same source location as in the 2004 case, around the Andaman Sea. Land use data of the innermost layer of the simulation area were adopted based on the 2004 condition and the land use planning of the city for 2029. The results of this study reveal that the tsunami inundation area can be reduced by about 9 % by using the elevated road for the earthquake of magnitude 9.15 Mw and about 22 % for the earthquake of magnitude 8.5 Mw. Combined with the land use planning 2029, the elevated road could reduce the maximum flow velocities behind the road by about 72 %. Notably, the proposed land use for 2029 will not be sufficient to deliver any effects on the tsunami mitigation without the elevated road structures. We recommend the city to construct the elevated road as this could be part of the co-benefit structures for tsunami mitigation. The proposed BORR appears to deliver a significant reduction of impacts of the smaller intensity tsunamis compared to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.

TSUNAMI MODELLING PROCEDURES TO REFINE COASTAL ARCHITECTURAL DESIGN STRATEGIES AT KUALA MUDA

This paper discusses the use of tsunami modelling to refine the strategies to be used in coastal architectural and planning design works in effort to minimize future tsunami impacts on the coastal buildings. The ability to recreate the characteristics of the 2004 Sumatran Tsunami waves and their impacts is the reason to use computer simulation as the main tool of this research project. The Cornell Multi-Grid Coupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT) programme has been chosen to generate a series of tsunami events onto a one-kilometre-square area of Kuala Muda (north-west of Peninsular Malaysia) coastal area. COMCOT is expected to help practitioners and researchers make the best possible designs for this tsunami-threatened near-beach area. It has the capability to simulate the entire lifespan of a tsunami inclusive of the characteristics and the behaviour of the waves once it inundates the design area. It creates an opportunity to better understand and evaluate the performance of proposed designs in order to achieve the most tsunami-resistant design. The 2004 Sumatran Tsunami waves are considered the worst case scenario this area will experience. Therefore, the waves generated act upon proposed settlement patterns and buildings which are iteratively modified to achieve minimum tsunami damage. COMCOT outputs are used to propose coastal architectural design strategies for present and future nearbeach area developments, especially in the north-western coast of Malaysia. The final Tsunami Responsive Architecture (TRA) design is intended to be culturally acceptable, and to be extended with or without modification to suit other coastal areas at risk of tsunami.

Incorporating Tidal Uncertainty into the Methodology of Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis

Wu, E.C.; Chen, Y.L.; Wu, H.L.; Hu, K.C.; Hsiao, S.C., and Wu, Y.C., 2018. Incorporating Tidal Uncertainty into the Methodology of Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis. In: Shim, J.-S.; Chun, I., and Lim, H.S. (eds.), Proceedings from the International Coastal Symposium (ICS) 2018 (Busan, Republic of Korea). Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 85, pp. 691–695. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.The Circum-Pacific Belt has become active in recent years, and the earthquake in the border area of land and sea probably causes tsunami disaster. The hazard includes overflow flooded, building damage, casualties, and radiation crisis of nuclear power plant. To quantify the risk, probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) serves as a robust methodology. The uncertainty stemming from the deviation of modeling, named aleatory uncertainty, is considered with including the tidal effect on the tsunami. To deal with the aleatory uncertainty, we incorporate tidal uncertainty into PTHA. Different static tidal stages are set in Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami model (COMCOT) to evaluate tsunami hazards. Three kinds of method are presented. One could apply theoretical probability distribution to different maximum wave height by the Gaussian Method. On the other hand, the Δt method and the Pattern Method combine tsunami events with a typical year of tidal record. The difference between these methods are discussed, and the Pattern Method is regarded as the most rigorous way. Finally, the method of incorporating tidal uncertainty into PTHA has been established and been utilized to Maanshan nuclear power plant in Taiwan.