Core-collapse Events Research Articles

Cosmic Type Ia supernova rate and constraints on supernova Ia progenitors

Type Ia supernovae play a key role in the evolution of galaxies by polluting the interstellar medium with a fraction of iron peak elements larger than that released in the core-collapse supernova events. Their light curve, moreover, is widely used in cosmological studies as it constitutes a reliable distance indicator on extragalactic scales. Among the mechanisms proposed to explain the Type Ia supernovae (SNe), the single- and double-degenerate channels are thought to be the dominant ones, which implies a different distribution of time delays between the progenitor formation and the explosion. In this paper, we aim to determine the dominant mechanism by comparing a compilation of Type Ia SN rates with those computed from various cosmic star-formation histories coupled with different delay-time distribution functions. We also evaluate the relative contributions of both channels. By using a least-squares fitting procedure, we modeled the observations of Type Ia SN rates assuming different combinations of three recent cosmic star-formation rates and seven delay-time distributions. The goodness of these fits are statistically quantified by the $ test. For two of the three cosmic star-formation rates, the single degenerate scenario provides the most accurate explanation for the observations, while a combination of 34<!PCT!> single-degenerate- and 66<!PCT!> double-degenerate delay-time distributions is more plausible for the remaining tested cosmic star-formation rates. Though dependent on the assumed cosmic star-formation rate, we find arguments in favor of the single-degenerate model. From the theoretic point of view, at least sim 34<!PCT!> of the Type Ia SN must have been produced through the single-degenerate channel to account for the observations. The wide, double-degenerate mechanism slightly under-predicts the observations at redshift $z 1$, unless the cosmic SFR flattens in that regime. On the contrary, although the purely close double-degenerate scenario can be ruled out, we cannot rule out a mixed scenario with single- and double-degenerate progenitors.

Prediction of supernova neutrino signals by detectors and its future challenges

Supernova neutrinos produced during a core collapse of a massive star, carries 99% of the energy produced during the violent phenomenon. These neutrinos are weakly interacting massive particles and can provide useful information for both particle physics (neutrino oscillations parameters) and astrophysics (explosion mechanism). This information can be used to explore physics beyond the standard model. Neutrinos escape from the supernova core hours before the light, so a neutrino signal providing information about supernova direction can enable early observation. The current generation of detectors, like, Super-Kamiokande (Super-K), Large Volume Detector (LVD), Borexino, Kamioka Liquid Scintillator Antineutrino Detector (KamLAND), and IceCube, as well as HALO, Daya Bay(reactor neutrino experiment) and NuMI Off-Axis νe Appearance experiment (NOvA), have the ability to detect only a few orders of magnitude of events and the next generation experiment like, Hyper-Kamiokande (Hyper-K), Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE), and Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) will have yet another order of magnitude in reach, as well as richer flavor sensitivity. This work will present a Monte Carlo based study using the SNOwGLoBES [1] package, which is used to estimate the event rate using folded fluxes, cross-sections, and detector smearing to determine mean expected neutrino interaction signals in multiple current and future detectors. A study is carried out for the calculation of core-collapse neutrino event rates in realistic detectors for different flux models, effects of different parameters on flux and its variation with time.

Stochastic gravitational wave background from supernovae in massive scalar-tensor gravity

In massive scalar-tensor gravity, core-collapse supernovae are strong sources of scalar-polarized gravitational waves. These can be detectable out to large distances. The dispersive nature of the propagation of waves in the massive scalar field implies that the gravitational wave signals are long-lived, and many such signals can overlap to form a stochastic background. Using different models for the population of supernova events in the nearby universe, we compute predictions for the energy density in the stochastic scalar-polarized gravitational wave background from core-collapse events in massive scalar-tensor gravity for theory parameters that facilitate strong scalarization. The resulting energy density is below the current constraints on a Gaussian stochastic gravitational wave background but large enough to be detectable with the current generation of detectors when they reach design sensitivity, indicating that it will soon be possible to place new constraints on the parameter space of massive scalar-tensor gravity.

Synchrotron afterglow model for AT 2022cmc: jetted tidal disruption event or engine-powered supernova?

ABSTRACT AT 2022cmc is a luminous optical transient (νLν ≳ 1045 erg s−1) accompanied by decaying non-thermal X-rays (peak duration tX ≲ days and isotropic energy EX,iso ≳ 1053 erg) and a long-lived radio/mm synchrotron afterglow, which has been interpreted as a jetted tidal disruption event (TDE). Both an equipartition analysis and a detailed afterglow model reveal the radio/mm emitting plasma to be expanding mildly relativistically (Lorentz factor $\Gamma \gtrsim \, \mathrm{ few}$ ) with an opening angle θj ≃ 0.1 and roughly fixed energy Ej,iso ≳ few × 1053 erg into an external medium of density profile n ∝ R−k with k ≃ 1.5–2, broadly similar to that of the first jetted TDE candidate Swift J1644+57 and consistent with Bondi accretion at a rate of ∼$10^{-3}\,\dot{M}_{\rm Edd}$ on to a 106 M⊙ black hole before the outburst. The rapidly decaying optical emission over the first days is consistent with fast-cooling synchrotron radiation from the same forward shock as the radio/mm emission, while the bluer slowly decaying phase to follow likely represents a separate thermal emission component. Emission from the reverse shock may have peaked during the first days, but its non-detection in the optical band places an upper bound Γj ≲ 100 on the Lorentz factor of the unshocked jet. Although a TDE origin for AT 2022cmc is indeed supported by some observations, the vast difference between the short-lived jet activity phase tX ≲ days and the months-long thermal optical emission also challenges this scenario. A stellar core-collapse event giving birth to a magnetar or black hole engine of peak duration ∼1 d offers an alternative model also consistent with the circumburst environment, if interpreted as a massive star wind.

Determining the Core Structure and Nuclear Equation of State of Rotating Core-collapse Supernovae with Gravitational Waves by Convolutional Neural Networks

Detecting gravitational waves from a nearby core-collapse supernova would place meaningful constraints on the supernova engine and nuclear equation of state. Here we use convolutional neural network models to identify the core rotational rates, rotation length scales, and the nuclear equation of state (EoS), using the 1824 waveforms from Richers et al. for a 12 solar mass progenitor. A high prediction accuracy for the classifications of the rotation length scales (93%) and the rotational rates (95%) can be achieved using the gravitational-wave signals from −10 to 6 ms core bounce. By including an additional 48 ms signal during the prompt convection phase, we could achieve an accuracy of 96% in the classification of the four main EoS groups. By combining the three models above, we could correctly predict the core rotational rates, rotation length scales, and the EoS at the same time with an accuracy of more than 85%. Finally, applying a transfer-learning method for an additional 74 waveforms from FLASH simulations, we show that our model using Richers’ waveforms could successfully predict the rotational rates from Pan’s waveforms even for a continuous value with mean absolute errors of 0.32 rad s−1 only. These results demonstrate the much broader parameter regimes to which our model can be applied to identify core-collapse supernova events through gravitational-wave signals.

Spherically symmetric accretion on to a compact object through a standing shock: the effects of general relativity in the Schwarzschild geometry

ABSTRACT A core-collapse supernova is generated by the passage of a shock wave through the envelope of a massive star, where the shock wave is initially launched from the ‘bounce’ of the neutron star formed during the collapse of the stellar core. Instead of successfully exploding the star, however, numerical investigations of core-collapse supernovae find that this shock tends to ‘stall’ at small radii (≲10 neutron star radii), with stellar material accreting on to the central object through the standing shock. Here, we present time-steady, adiabatic solutions for the density, pressure, and velocity of the shocked fluid that accretes on to the compact object through the stalled shock, and we include the effects of general relativity in the Schwarzschild metric. Similar to previous works that were carried out in the Newtonian limit, we find that the gas ‘settles’ interior to the stalled shock; in the relativistic regime analysed here, the velocity asymptotically approaches zero near the Schwarzschild radius. These solutions can represent accretion on to a material surface if the radius of the compact object is outside of its event horizon, such as a neutron star; we also discuss the possibility that these solutions can approximately represent the accretion of gas on to a newly formed black hole following a core-collapse event. Our findings and solutions are particularly relevant in weak and failed supernovae, where the shock is pushed to small radii and relativistic effects are large.

Correlations ofr-process elements in very metal-poor stars as clues to their nucleosynthesis sites

Aims.Various nucleosynthesis studies have pointed out that ther-process elements in very metal-poor (VMP) halo stars might have different origins. By means of familiar concepts from statistics (correlations, cluster analysis, and rank tests of elemental abundances), we look for causally correlated elemental abundance patterns and attempt to link them to astrophysical events. Some of these events produce ther-process elements jointly with iron, while others do not have any significant iron contribution. We try to (a) characterize these different types of events by their abundance patterns and (b) identify them among the existing set of suggestedr-process sites.Methods.The Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients were used in order to investigate correlations amongr-process elements (X,Y) as well as their relation to iron (Fe) in VMP halo stars. We gradually tracked the evolution of those coefficients in terms of the element enrichments [X/Fe] or [X/Y] and the metallicity [Fe/H]. This approach, aided by cluster analysis to find different structures of abundance patterns and rank tests to identify whether several events contributed to the observed pattern, is new and provides deeper insights into the abundances of VMP stars.Results.In the early stage of our Galaxy, at least threer-process nucleosynthesis sites have been active. The first two produce and eject iron and the majority of the lighterr-process elements. We assign them to two different types of core-collapse events, not identical to regular core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe), which produce only light trans-Fe elements. The third category is characterized by a strongr-process and is responsible for the major fraction of the heavy mainr-process elements without a significant coproduction of Fe. It does not appear to be connected to CCSNe, in fact most of the Fe found in the relatedr-process enriched stars must come from previously occurring CCSNe. The existence of actinide boost stars indicates a further division among strongr-process sites. We assign these two strongr-process sites to neutron star mergers without fast black hole formation and to events where the ejecta are dominated by black hole accretion disk outflows. Indications from the lowest-metallicity stars hint at a connection with massive single stars (collapsars) forming black holes in the early Galaxy.

The Dark Energy Survey supernova program: cosmological biases from supernova photometric classification

ABSTRACT Cosmological analyses of samples of photometrically identified type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) depend on understanding the effects of ‘contamination’ from core-collapse and peculiar SN Ia events. We employ a rigorous analysis using the photometric classifier SuperNNova on state-of-the-art simulations of SN samples to determine cosmological biases due to such ‘non-Ia’ contamination in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) 5-yr SN sample. Depending on the non-Ia SN models used in the SuperNNova training and testing samples, contamination ranges from 0.8 to 3.5 per cent, with a classification efficiency of 97.7–99.5 per cent. Using the Bayesian Estimation Applied to Multiple Species (BEAMS) framework and its extension BBC (‘BEAMS with Bias Correction’), we produce a redshift-binned Hubble diagram marginalized over contamination and corrected for selection effects, and use it to constrain the dark energy equation-of-state, w. Assuming a flat universe with Gaussian ΩM prior of 0.311 ± 0.010, we show that biases on w are <0.008 when using SuperNNova, with systematic uncertainties associated with contamination around 10 per cent of the statistical uncertainty on w for the DES-SN sample. An alternative approach of discarding contaminants using outlier rejection techniques (e.g. Chauvenet’s criterion) in place of SuperNNova leads to biases on w that are larger but still modest (0.015–0.03). Finally, we measure biases due to contamination on w0 and wa (assuming a flat universe), and find these to be <0.009 in w0 and <0.108 in wa, 5 to 10 times smaller than the statistical uncertainties for the DES-SN sample.

GRB 211227A as a Peculiar Long Gamma-Ray Burst from a Compact Star Merger

Long-duration gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) associated with supernovae (SNe) are believed to originate from massive star core-collapse events, whereas short-duration GRBs that are related to compact star mergers are expected to be accompanied by kilonovae. GRB 211227A, which lasted about 84 s, had an initial short/hard spike followed by a series of soft gamma-ray extended emission at redshift z = 0.228. We performed follow-up observations of the optical emission using BOOTES, LCOGT, and the Lijiang 2.4 m telescope, but we detected no associated supernova signature, even down to very stringent limits at such a low redshift. We observed the host galaxy within a large error circle and roughly estimated the physical offset of GRB 211227A as 20.47 ± 14.47 kpc from the galaxy center. These properties are similar to those of GRB 060614, and suggest that the progenitor of GRB 211227A is not favored to be associated with the death of massive stars. Hence, we propose that GRB 211227A originates from a compact star merger. Calculating pseudo-kilonova emission for this case by adopting the typical parameters, we find that any associated pseudo-kilonova is too faint to be detected. If this is the case, it explains naturally the characteristics of the prompt emission, the lack of SN and kilonova emission, and the large physical offset from the galaxy center.

Stochastic gravitational-wave background from stellar core-collapse events

We estimate the stochastic gravitational-wave background arising from all stellar core-collapse events in the universe based on the gravitational-wave signal predictions of recent numerical simulations. We focus on waveforms from slowly or nonrotating stars and include rapidly rotating, highly massive progenitors as extreme case limits. Our most realistic estimates are more than one hundred times below the sensitivity of third-generation terrestrial gravitational-wave detectors and likely weaker than cosmological contributions to the stochastic gravitational-wave background.

Neutrino interactions in liquid scintillators including active-sterile neutrino mixing

Neutrinos play an important role in core-collapse supernova events since they are a key piece to understanding the explosion mechanisms. The analysis of the neutrino fluxes can bring answers to neutrino’s related problems e.g., mass hierarchy, spectral splitting, sterile neutrinos, etc. In this work, we study the impact of neutrino oscillations and the possible existence of eV sterile neutrinos upon the supernova neutrino flux ([Formula: see text]). We have calculated the energy distribution of the neutrino flux from a supernova and the total number of events that would be detected in a liquid scintillator. We also present an analysis for the conversion probabilities as a function of the active-sterile neutrino mixing parameters. Finally, we have carried out a statistical analysis to extract values for the mixing parameters of the model.

Searching for New Observational Signatures of the Dynamical Evolution of Star Clusters

Abstract We present a numerical study, based on Monte Carlo simulations, aimed at defining new empirical parameters measurable from observations and able to trace the different phases of the dynamical evolution of star clusters. As expected, a central density cusp, deviating from the King model profile, develops during the core collapse (CC) event. Although the slope varies during the post-CC oscillations, the cusp remains a stable feature characterizing the central portion of the density profile in all post-CC stages. We then investigate the normalized cumulative radial distribution (nCRD) drawn by all the cluster stars included within one half of the tridimensional half-mass radius (R ≤ 0.5r h ), finding that its morphology varies in time according to the cluster’s dynamical stage. To quantify these changes we defined three parameters: A 5, the area subtended by the nCRD within 5% of the half-mass radius, P 5, the value of the nCRD measured at the same distance, and S 2.5, the slope of the straight line tangent to the nCRD measured at R = 2.5%r h . The three parameters evolve similarly during the cluster’s dynamical evolution: after an early phase in which they are essentially constant, their values rapidly increase, reaching their maximum at the CC epoch and slightly decreasing in the post-CC phase, when their average value remains significantly larger than the initial one, in spite of some fluctuations. The results presented in this paper suggest that these three observable parameters are very promising empirical tools to identify the star cluster’s dynamical stage from observational data.

Luminous Late-time Radio Emission from Supernovae Detected by the Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array Sky Survey (VLASS)

Abstract We present a population of 19 radio-luminous supernovae (SNe) with emission reaching L ν ∼ 1026–1029 erg s−1 Hz−1 in the first epoch of the Very Large Array Sky Survey (VLASS) at 2–4 GHz. Our sample includes one long gamma-ray burst, SN 2017iuk/GRB 171205A, and 18 core-collapse SNe detected at ≈1–60 yr after explosion. No thermonuclear explosion shows evidence for bright radio emission, and hydrogen-poor progenitors dominate the subsample of core-collapse events with spectroscopic classification at the time of explosion (79%). We interpret these findings in the context of the expected radio emission from the forward shock interaction with the circumstellar medium (CSM). We conclude that these observations require a departure from the single wind–like density profile (i.e., ρ CSM ∝ r −2) that is expected around massive stars and/or from a spherical Newtonian shock. Viable alternatives include the shock interaction with a detached, dense shell of CSM formed by a large effective progenitor mass-loss rate, M ̇ ∼ 10 − 4 – 10 − 1 M ⊙ yr−1 (for an assumed wind velocity of 1000 km s−1); emission from an off-axis relativistic jet entering our line of sight; or the emergence of emission from a newly born pulsar-wind nebula. The relativistic SN 2012ap that is detected 5.7 and 8.5 yr after explosion with L ν ∼ 1028 erg s−1 Hz−1 might constitute the first detections of an off-axis jet+cocoon system in a massive star. However, none of the VLASS SNe with archival data points are consistent with our model off-axis jet light curves. Future multiwavelength observations will distinguish among these scenarios. Our VLASS source catalogs, which were used to perform the VLASS cross-matching, are publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4895112.

Nonlinear MHD simulation of core plasma collapse events in Wendelstein 7-X

Three-dimensional nonlinear MHD simulations study the core collapse events observed in a stellarator experiment, Wendelstein 7-X. In the low magnetic shear configuration like the Wendelstein 7-X, the rotational transform profile is very sensitive to the toroidal current density. The 3D equilibrium with localized toroidal current density is studied. If the toroidal current density follows locally in the middle of the minor radius, the rotational transform is also changed locally. Sometimes, the magnetic topology changes due to appearing the magnetic island. A full three-dimensional nonlinear MHD code studies the nonlinear behaviors of the MHD instability. It was found that the following sequence. At first, the high-n ballooning-type mode structure appears in the plasma core, and then the mode linearly grows. The high-n ballooning modes nonlinearly couple and saturate. The mode structure changes to the low-n mode. The magnetic field structure becomes strongly stochastic into the plasma core due to the nonlinear coupling in that phase. Finally, the plasma pressure diffuses along the stochastic field lines, and then the core plasma pressure drops. This is a crucial result to interpret the core collapse event by strong nonlinear coupling.

Witnessing history: sky distribution, detectability, and rates of naked-eye Milky Way supernovae

ABSTRACT The Milky Way hosts on average a few supernova explosions per century, yet in the past millennium only five supernovae have been identified confidently in the historical record. This deficit of naked-eye supernovae is at least partly due to dust extinction in the Galactic plane. We explore this effect quantitatively, developing a formalism for the supernova probability distribution in space and on the sky, accounting for dust and for the observer’s flux limit. We then construct a fiducial axisymmetric model for the spatial supernova and dust densities, featuring an exponential dependence on galactocentric radius and height, with core-collapse events in a thin disc and Type Ia events including a thick disc component. When no flux limit is applied, our model predicts that on the sky, supernovae are intrinsically concentrated in the Galactic plane, with Type Ia events extending to higher latitudes. We then apply a flux limit and include dust effects, to predict the sky distribution of historical supernovae. We use well-observed supernovae as light-curve templates, and introduce naked-eye discovery criteria. The resulting sky distributions are strikingly inconsistent with the locations of confident historical supernovae, none of which lie near our model’s central peaks. Indeed, SN 1054 lies off the plane almost exactly in the anticentre, and SN 1181 is in the second Galactic quadrant. We discuss possible explanations for these discrepancies. We calculate the percentage of all supernovae bright enough for historical discovery: $\simeq 13{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ of core-collapse and $\simeq 33{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ of Type Ia events. Using these and the confident historical supernovae, we estimate the intrinsic Galactic supernova rates, finding general agreement with other methods. Finally, we urge searches for supernovae in historical records from civilizations in the Southern hemisphere.

A peculiarly short-duration gamma-ray burst from massive star core collapse

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) have been phenomenologically classified into long and short populations based on the observed bimodal distribution of duration. Multi-wavelength and multi-messenger observations in recent years have revealed that in general long GRBs originate from massive star core collapse events, whereas short GRBs originate from binary neutron star mergers. It has been known that the duration criterion is sometimes unreliable, and multi-wavelength criteria are needed to identify the physical origin of a particular GRB. Some apparently long GRBs have been suggested to have a neutron star merger origin, whereas some apparently short GRBs have been attributed to genuinely long GRBs whose short, bright emission is slightly above the detector's sensitivity threshold. Here we report the comprehensive analysis of the multi-wavelength data of a bright short GRB 200826A. Characterized by a sharp pulse, this burst shows a duration of 1 second and no evidence of an underlying longer-duration event. Its other observational properties such as its spectral behaviors, total energy, and host galaxy offset, are, however, inconsistent with those of other short GRBs believed to originate from binary neutron star mergers. Rather, these properties resemble those of long GRBs. This burst confirms the existence of short duration GRBs with stellar core-collapse origin, and presents some challenges to the existing models.

Revealing x-ray and gamma ray temporal and spectral similarities in the GRB 190829A afterglow.

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), which are bright flashes of gamma rays from extragalactic sources followed by fading afterglow emission, are associated with stellar core collapse events. We report the detection of very-high-energy (VHE) gamma rays from the afterglow of GRB 190829A, between 4 and 56 hours after the trigger, using the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.). The low luminosity and redshift of GRB 190829A reduce both internal and external absorption, allowing determination of its intrinsic energy spectrum. Between energies of 0.18 and 3.3 tera-electron volts, this spectrum is described by a power law with photon index of 2.07 ± 0.09, similar to the x-ray spectrum. The x-ray and VHE gamma-ray light curves also show similar decay profiles. These similar characteristics in the x-ray and gamma-ray bands challenge GRB afterglow emission scenarios.

What can be learned from a proto-neutron star’s mass and radius?

ABSTRACT We make extensive numerical studies of masses and radii of proto-neutron stars during the first second after their birth in core-collapse supernova events. We use a quasi-static approach for the computation of proto-neutron star structure, built on parametrized entropy and electron fraction profiles, that are then evolved with neutrino cooling processes. We vary the equation of state of nuclear matter, the proto-neutron star mass, and the parameters of the initial profiles, to take into account our ignorance of the supernova progenitor properties. Our results suggest that if masses and radii of a proto-neutron star can be determined in the first second after the birth, e.g. from gravitational wave emission, no information could be obtained on the corresponding cold neutron star and therefore on the cold nuclear equation of state. Similarly, it seems unlikely that any property of the proto-neutron star equation of state (hot and not beta-equilibrated) could be determined either, mostly due to the lack of information on the entropy, or equivalently temperature, distribution in such objects.

Supernova constraint on self-interacting dark sector particles

We examine the constraints on sub-GeV dark sector particles set by the proto-neutron star cooling associated with the core-collapse supernova event SN1987a. Considering explicitly a dark photon portal dark sector model, we compute the relevant interaction rates of dark photon ($A'$) and dark fermion ($\chi$) with the Standard Model particles as well as their self-interaction inside the dark sector. We find that even with a small dark sector fine structure constant $\alpha_D\ll 1$, dark sector self-interactions can easily lead to their own self-trapping. This effect strongly limits the energy luminosity carried away by dark sector particles from the supernova core and thus drastically affects the parameter space that can be constrained by SN1987a. We consider specifically two mass ratios $m_{A'}=3m_\chi$ and $3m_{A'}=m_\chi$ which represent scenarios where the decay of $A'$ to $\chi\bar\chi$ is allowed or not. We show that SN1987a can only place bounds on the dark sector when $\alpha_D\lesssim 10^{-15}$ ($10^{-7}$) for the former (latter) for $m_\chi\lesssim 20$ MeV. Furthermore, this evades the supernova bounds on the widely-examined dark photon parameter space completely if $\alpha_D\lesssim 10^{-7}$ for the former, while lifts the bounds when $\alpha_D\lesssim 10^{-7}$ if $m_\chi\lesssim 100$ MeV. Our findings thus imply that the existing supernova bounds on light dark particles can be generally evaded by a similar self-trapping mechanism. This also implies that non-standard strongly self-interacting neutrino is not consistent with the SN1987a observation. Same effects can also take place for other known stellar bounds on dark sector particles.

Stellar Collapse Diversity and the Diffuse Supernova Neutrino Background

Abstract The diffuse cosmic supernova neutrino background (DSNB) is an observational target of the gadolinium-loaded Super-Kamiokande (SK) detector and the forthcoming JUNO and Hyper-Kamiokande detectors. Current predictions are hampered by our still incomplete understanding of the supernova (SN) explosion mechanism and of the neutron star (NS) equation of state and maximum mass. In our comprehensive study we revisit this problem on grounds of the landscapes of successful and failed SN explosions obtained by Sukhbold et al. and Ertl et al. with parameterized one-dimensional neutrino engines for large sets of single-star and helium-star progenitors, with the latter serving as a proxy for binary evolution effects. Besides considering engines of different strengths, leading to different fractions of failed SNe with black hole (BH) formation, we also vary the NS mass limit and the spectral shape of the neutrino emission and include contributions from poorly understood alternative NS formation channels, such as accretion-induced and merger-induced collapse events. Since the neutrino signals of our large model sets are approximate, we calibrate the associated degrees of freedom by using state-of-the-art simulations of proto-NS cooling. Our predictions are higher than other recent ones because of a large fraction of failed SNe with long delay to BH formation. Our best-guess model predicts a DSNB -flux of cm−2 s−1 with cm−2 s−1 in the favorable measurement interval of [10, 30] MeV and cm−2 s−1 with energies > 17.3 MeV, which is roughly a factor of two below the current SK limit. The uncertainty range is dominated by the still insufficiently constrained cosmic rate of stellar core-collapse events.